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The Bank of England’s interest rate decision is on a knife edge, with the regulator considered as likely to make borrowing more expensive today as it is to maintain the current rate.

The odds of a hike versus holding rates are nearly 50-50 – with money markets betting on a 46% chance that the base interest rate will be increased to 5.5% and a 54% chance it will remain at 5.25%.

The announcement will come at midday.

The outcome of the Bank of England’s meeting to consider rates had previously been seen as near certain. But the latest official inflation data caused market expectations to change, when the rate of price rises came in lower than expected.

Before the inflation data was released, the vast majority of economists and financial markets expected a final hike of 0.25 percentage points would be imposed.

That reduced rate of inflation has signalled the Bank may be nearing the end of its programme of increases.

Rates have gone up 14 consecutive times in an effort to encourage saving and reduce spending. The Bank is attempting to take money out of the economy and slow the rate of price rises.

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Mortgage rates had increased to more than 6% for both two and five-year fixed-rate deals.

If there were to be an increase in the base interest rate it would bring mortgage bills higher.

The average monthly mortgage bill for a five-year fixed deal would be £388 higher than when the Bank began upping rates in December 2021, according to financial information firm Moneyfacts.

For standard variable (SVR) mortgages, another hike would see bills rise to £313.83 more when the rate rises began in 2021, according to banking lobby group UK Finance.

For tracker mortgages, the additional expense would be £566.35, the group said.

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Inflation figures may shift dynamic in cost of living crisis but rate rise still likely

While the majority of the UK population are renters, many mortgage payers are yet to feel the full effect of rate rises, as they are still on low interest rate deals secured in previous years.

The majority of mortgage holders are on fixed-rate deals, 2.4 million of which were to expire from July to the end of 2024, UK Finance, the banking industry trade body said.

It is a significant increase from the years of ultra-low interest rates. Less than two years ago, in October 2021, the average rate on a five-year deal was 2.55%.

The Bank may follow the Federal Reserve, the US central bank known as the Fed, in holding the base rate after 14 consecutive rises.

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Inflation falls to 2.3% in April

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The rate of price rises has dropped to 2.3% in April – the lowest in nearly three years and just above the Bank of England’s target, according to official data.

Inflation is at a low not seen since July 2021, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said.

A month earlier, in the year up to March, the figure was 3.2%.

It’s now just above the 2% target set by the Bank of England and central banks across the world and will likely encourage the rate-setters to lower interest rates and make borrowing cheaper as a result.

A goal of 2% is set by central banks, whose job it is to ensure inflation sticks at that level, as it’s judged high enough so consumers avoid putting off purchases for fear of goods becoming cheaper and low enough that there’s price certainty.

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Government announce Anglesey as preferred site of new nuclear power station

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Government announce Anglesey as preferred site of new nuclear power station

Wylfa in North Wales is the preferred site for a major new nuclear power development, the government has announced.

Ministers are beginning talks with international energy firms to explore building the UK’s third mega-nuclear power station at the Anglesey site, according to the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ).

The department said the gigawatt nuclear power plant could provide enough clean power for six million homes for 60 years.

Britain has a target of generating a quarter of all electricity – around 24GW – from home-grown nuclear power by 2050.

The aim is part of the government’s plan to enhance energy security and deliver on net zero.

Currently, the UK generates about 15% of its electricity needs from nuclear capacity.

The Wylfa project could be similar in scale to Hinkley in Somerset and Sizewell in Suffolk, with hopes it would bring thousands of jobs and investment to the area.

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Labour has accused the government of “dither and delay” on new nuclear at Wylfa, after Japanese giant Hitachi pulled out of a previous project there in 2019 because of rising costs.

Wylfa’s twin reactor Magnox nuclear power station, which went online in 1971, stopped generating power at the end of 2015 and has been decommissioned.

Energy Security Secretary Claire Coutinho said: “Anglesey has a proud nuclear history and it is only right that, once again, it can play a central role in boosting the UK’s energy security.

“Wylfa would not only bring clean, reliable power to millions of homes – it could create thousands of well-paid jobs and bring investment to the whole of North Wales.”

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‘High-tech’ nuclear power for UK

The UK is working to expand nuclear power through traditional large-scale plants as well as small modular reactors (SMRs), which supporters hope will be quicker and cheaper to construct.

Great British Nuclear aims to announce winning bidders in the tendering process to build SMRs by the end of this year.

But this is later than the spring timetable the government set last October for announcing the successful companies.

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Tom Greatrex, chief executive of the Nuclear Industry Association, said the government is “absolutely right” to pursue more large-scale nuclear alongside the SMR programme.

He said: “Wylfa is the best site in Europe for a big nuclear project: It has an existing grid connection, the hard bedrock ideal for a nuclear power station, superior cooling water access, and some work to clear the site for large-scale construction was already done by the previous developer.”

Labour’s shadow energy minister Alan Whitehead said: “We welcome the government finally moving forward with a nuclear project identified by the last Labour government.

“But this should be the bare minimum – and celebrating a tentative step forward in 2024 on a project that should have been moving in 2010 tells you everything about this tired, snail’s-pace government.”

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Post Office inquiry: ‘Come clean’ victim demands of ex-boss Vennells

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Post Office inquiry: 'Come clean' victim demands of ex-boss Vennells

A victim of the Post Office Horizon scandal has told Sky News that ex-boss Paula Vennells must “come clean” in her evidence to the statutory inquiry.

Chirag Sidhpura, a former sub-postmaster who became one of the public champions for justice based on his own treatment at the hands of the Post Office, said he was expecting a “culture of denial” and “lies” over Ms Vennells’ three days of scheduled evidence.

She is due before the inquiry later this morning.

The 65-year-old, who was Post Office chief executive from 2012 to 2019, will be speaking publicly about what happened for the first time in almost a decade.

While she has since acknowledged that sub-postmasters were wrongly accused and prosecuted over faults in the Horizon accounting system under her watch, the inquiry will seek to uncover what she knew and when.

She told a committee of MPs in 2015: “We are a business that genuinely cares about the people who work for us. If there had been any miscarriages of justice, it would have been really important to me and the Post Office that we surfaced those. As the investigations have gone through, so far we have no evidence of that.”

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Chirag Sidhpura: ‘I have had breakdowns’

Victims at the heart of this scandal beg to differ.

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Post Office prosecutors were alerted to bugs with Horizon days before the trial and eventual conviction of sub-postmaster Seema Misra in 2010 – before Ms Vennells had taken over.

There is further evidence – in the form of recordings leaked to Sky News – to suggest Ms Vennells had been told by May 2013 that Horizon operator Fujitsu had remote access to the system.

On Tuesday, ITV News reported that she described potential wrongful convictions of sub-postmasters in an October 2013 email as “very disturbing”.

That was written more than a year before the company halted prosecutions.

Chirag Sidhpura’s experience

Chirag had written to Ms Vennells personally about his own case in 2017. A week later, his contract was terminated.

He chose to hand over more than £57,000 to avoid prosecution. He lost not only his business but also his house and mental health.

Chirag said of Ms Vennells’ evidence: “I think there is still going to be a culture of denial, lies, ‘I don’t remember, I don’t recall’.

“It is put to you in black and white you have done this, you made these decisions. Just come clean.”

ITV drama Mr Bates vs The Post Office ensured a spotlight was firmly placed on Ms Vennells, whose career has included stints at companies including L’Oreal and in the NHS.

She is also an Anglican priest.

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Read more:
Who is Paula Vennells?
The major questions for key Post Office boss to answer – and why her replies matter
The Post Office Horizon scandal explained

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Ex-Post Office exec accused of lying

A lawyer’s view

Paul Marshall, a lawyer for victims, told Sky News that the evidence from Ms Vennells was an opportunity to “make confession”, claiming she presided over a Post Office “cult” which had a corporate inability to accept flaws.

“In one sense, she was or became the leader of what was indistinguishable from a cult.

“It had a belief system in which everything that didn’t coincide with that cult and its set of beliefs had to be either destroyed or excluded and removed.”

Ms Vennells has pledged to co-operate fully with the inquiry and, like all witnesses, must give an oath to tell the truth ahead of her evidence.

A statement released by her earlier this year stated: “I continue to support and focus on co-operating with the inquiry and expect to be giving evidence in the coming months.

“I am truly sorry for the devastation caused to the sub-postmasters and their families, whose lives were torn apart by being wrongly accused and wrongly prosecuted as a result of the Horizon system.

“I now intend to continue to focus on assisting the Inquiry and will not make any further public comment until it has concluded.”

Follow the questioning of Paula Vennells at the inquiry live on Sky News on Wednesday. Watch Sky News live here, and on YouTube, or on TV on Freeview 233, Sky 501, Virgin 603, and BT 313. You can also follow the latest on the Sky News website and app.

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