Connect with us

Published

on

Thousands of women every year have an endometrial ablation on the NHS.

It’s a treatment for heavy periods – and for a lot of women, the 90-second procedure brings relief from the sapping cycle of heavy bleeding.

But the procedure to destroy the womb lining fails in up to a fifth of cases, often leaving women with no treatment options left but a hysterectomy.

People whose ablations have failed describe debilitating, long-lasting pain that fractures mental health, relationships and careers – and doctors who seem to have little idea what’s wrong with them.

Karen Ramage knew immediately after her endometrial ablation in 2021 that something wasn’t right.

The pain only got worse. The month prior, she had run 100 miles. By two weeks after the procedure, she couldn’t walk properly. She couldn’t drive, she couldn’t work, she could barely eat. And she couldn’t find a doctor who would agree the endometrial ablation might be to blame.

“My personal belief is that they just don’t expect anything to go wrong,” she told Sky News.

The discussion of risks beforehand was limited to being warned of adhesions between the womb and bladder or bowel, she says. She was told the worst outcome would be no improvement in her bleeding.

But constant pain set in down her right side, intensifying to “labour-like contraction pains” around the time of her period.

As months passed, she relied on daily doses of Tramadol. Talking to a counsellor, she tried to reckon with how she could live like this: “I felt that everything had been taken away from me.”

Supplied pic of Karen Ramage for feature on endometrial ablation
Image:
Karen Ramage had to pay for a hysterectomy privately after her ablation failed

It took going private for a doctor to tell her definitively her ablation had failed.

“I was probably more relieved that actually somebody would believe in me, because it was this whole thing that nobody would believe that this procedure had caused all of this.”

Facing up to a two-year wait on the NHS for a hysterectomy, she took out a loan to cover the £7,500 cost of having it privately. After months not working, it was a tough financial call – one that meant relying on food banks.

How ablations work – and fail

About one in four women suffer from heavy periods and more than 30,000 women in England had an endometrial ablation on the NHS between 2017 and 2022.

Most were radiofrequency ablations, where electromagnetic energy is used to burn away the lining of the womb.

The womb lining is what grows and sheds each month so the idea is that no lining means no – or lighter – periods.

But if not all the lining is destroyed, it still grows and sheds – but scar tissue can mean the blood gets trapped. It builds up in pockets behind the tissue, sometimes behind a scarred-shut cervix, causing intense pain until it disperses back into the body.

Endometrial ablation

In women who have been sterilised the blood can back up into the fallopian tubes – this is known as PATSS (post-ablation tubal sterilisation syndrome).

In cases of late-onset failure, the lining regrows in the months and years after an ablation.

Some women experience pain cyclically each month, while for others post-ablation pain is constant or just during sex.

Women who spoke to Sky News describe agony worse than labour. One woman would put herself in the recovery position when the pain started because she knew she would blackout. Another came close to losing her job because she needed drugs so strong they made her a “zombie”.

‘Ablation ruined 10 years of my life’

Amanda Connor was told an ablation would “solve all my problems”, but three years later her womb had “completely grown back”. She decided to try the procedure a second time in 2010.

The pattern of monthly pain only intensified over time. It would start in her feet, a tingling fiery burn. By the time it reached her legs, she would be doubled over. Then it raged through her abdomen.

“I couldn’t stand up, I was on the floor writhing about and screaming for hours,” she told Sky News.

Her husband could only watch for so long before he would call an ambulance – just like he did the month prior, and the one before that.

At the hospital they would do the same checks for appendicitis, then pelvic inflammatory disease. But Amanda was sure they were looking for the wrong thing: “It’s not pelvic inflammatory disease, it’s happening every single month.”

Reports of not being believed or “gaslighting” were common among women who spoke to Sky News. One was told her pain must be a bladder infection. Two women were told it was IBS.

Nobody told Amanda it could be a failed ablation. She was the one who brought it up with her gynaecologist.

A scan revealed her womb was a “lump of scar tissue”. The only way to fix it was to remove her womb entirely.

She was shocked when her doctor told her: “Not only have I been totally misled about ablation and how amazing it is – I am now facing a major operation in order to fix it.

“If I could go back I would never have it done.

“Ablation ruined about 10 years of my life. The effect on my marriage, my work life and home life was huge.”

Taking legal action

Experiences like this are familiar to Dr Victoria Handley, a lawyer specialising in gynaecological medical negligence cases.

She estimates she’s handled about 1,000 cases relating to endometrial ablation since 2015. Every week she will hear from one or two women who have had complications from ablations.

They report adhesions of the uterus to the bladder or bowel, perforation of the uterus, infertility they weren’t warned about and ultimately needing further surgery.

Women are going to the doctor with heavy periods and ending up needing a hysterectomy, “the most radical thing you can have”, Dr Handley says. A hysterectomy carries risks including incontinence, sexual dysfunction, prolapse and early menopause.

“You’re swapping one problem for another without realising that the problem you’re swapping is actually worse than the problem you’ve got,” she told Sky News.

Dr Victoria Handley, a lawyer specialising in gynaecological medical negligence cases
Image:
Dr Victoria Handley says she has handled about 1,000 cases

Exactly how many women suffer post-ablation complications is hard to pinpoint as research tends to only capture patients who have resorted to further surgery.

A study of more than 110,000 women in England who had an endometrial ablation between 2000 and 2011 found 16.7% had further surgery within five years. Other studies put the number at more than 20%.

Up to one in five ablation patients may have abnormal bleeding or period pain, or both, according to Professor Justin Clark, consultant gynaecologist and spokesperson for the Royal College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists.

NICE guidelines set out treatment pathways for heavy bleeding. This includes taking a patient’s full history, investigating the cause of the bleeding and exploring conservative options like the coil and pill before an ablation.

A spokesperson for NHS England told Sky News staff should be following this guidance and “should make clear the benefits and potential risks of any recommended treatment so patients can make informed decisions”.

But Dr Handley says in her experience, “a lot of what’s in this guideline is ignored by the medical profession because they’ll go, ‘oh, I know what’s wrong with you’, and I’ll go straight to the surgery, and they don’t actually carry out the investigation and then send them down the correct route”.

Medical negligence cases need to establish a breach of duty; for endometrial ablation this is normally failure to warn of the risk of complications or failure to offer alternatives.

The claimant needs to prove they were injured, and the injury was caused by the breach. They also need to be able to show logically that had they been informed of the risks or alternatives, they would not have gone ahead with the ablation. If those four things don’t align, the case will fail, Dr Handley says.

The majority of cases are settled by NHS trusts out of court, she says, and women tend to receive upwards of £20,000, depending on the injury they have suffered.

Despite the number of cases she has dealt with, she says she has seen no attempt to solve the issue.

“The NHS response is woeful. There’s no joined up thinking at all. There’s no recognition that there’s an overarching problem, and there’s no desire to fix it.”

NHS England and NHS Scotland did not address questions from Sky News about how they are responding to this at an organisation-wide level.

‘It makes me sick to know my womb is burned’

Emma Burchell says she does not believe the risks were discussed in full when she had an ablation – which she calls “the worst decision I ever made”.

“You trust these doctors to do the right thing for you, and then you feel like they’ve not,” she says.

The months since the procedure in May 2022 have been “horrendous”. Constant sharp pain through her back, stomach and legs drove her to the doctor again and again, but she says she wasn’t given pain relief.

Instead she was offered antidepressants. She declined, worried she would be told the pain was “all in her head” if she accepted.

Now she’s considering a hysterectomy. “Do I need my womb?” she questions. “It makes me sick to know my womb is all burned, and it’s sat inside my stomach.”

But getting more surgery isn’t a quick fix. Gynaecological waiting lists in England have more than doubled since the start of the pandemic.

Emma has been put on injections to create a chemical menopause, a process which can help diagnose the cause of gynaecological symptoms, before doctors will consider a hysterectomy. In the meantime, each day is a “battle”.

Supplied pic of Emma Burchell for feature about endometrial ablation
Image:
Emma Burchell says getting an ablation was the ‘worst decision’ she’s ever made

Unsuitable candidates for ablation

A number of factors make an ablation more likely to fail: a younger age, fibroids, previous C-sections, polyps, a retroverted uterus (where the womb tips backwards) and adenomyosis (where the womb lining grows in the muscle of the womb).

According to Professor Clark, “endometrial ablation works best for women above 40 years old with relatively normal sized wombs without significant fibroids”.

Studies stress the importance of making sure women are good candidates for the procedure. A medical device alert from the UK’s Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency said the same.

Still, Sky News spoke to women who between them had all the contraindications above and had been given an ablation.

Karen Ramage found out after her ablation that she had a retroverted uterus – increasing the chance of ablation failure sixfold – as well as fibroids.

Ablations can be done where women have small fibroids, but she was told in her case it was like trying to “wallpaper over air bubbles and lumps, so it doesn’t cover the whole surface”.

When ablations work

Endometrial ablation support groups have sprung up on Facebook; the largest has more than 14,000 members, mostly in the US.

Women share stories of nerve damage, sepsis, infections, bloating, continued heavy bleeding. It’s nerve wracking reading for people considering the procedure – or who had it done before finding the group.

Samantha Williams hovers in the group, popping up in the comments to share her experience and reassure people. She had an ablation after 18 months of non-stop bleeding and it made a “massive difference” to her quality of life. It stopped the bleeding and hasn’t caused pain.

Read more on Sky News:
New workplace standards for menopause and menstruation support
Women more likely to suffer migraines during menstrual cycle

If you think of treatments for heavy bleeding as the alphabet, she says, a hysterectomy is Z. With her NHS gynaecologist they worked through until they got to Y, an ablation.

The risks were explained, the patient information leaflet was detailed and she was confident it was right for her.

Still, her advice is the same as women who had bad experiences: “Do your homework. But also try everything else first. It shouldn’t ever be the first thing that you do. There’s lots of other options.”

What the NHS says

Sky News contacted NHS England and Scotland, as well as the NHS trusts that treated Karen, Amanda and Emma.

NHS England said endometrial ablation is “one of a number of treatments” for heavy bleeding that is given “when clinically appropriate”.

“While most women do not experience significant pain after this procedure, we strongly encourage any woman with concerns to speak to their clinician or GP,” it said.

A Scottish government spokesperson said “person-centred care” was a priority and involved working in partnership with patients to understand what they need, and how their desired outcomes can be achieved.

“An essential component of this approach involves providing tailored, understandable information so that people are fully informed and involved in decision-making about their care as much as they choose.”

A spokesperson for Bolton NHS Foundation Trust said: “We welcome the opportunity to speak with any patient directly if they had concerns about their care or treatment, so we can fully understand their experience and make improvements where possible.”

NHS Forth Valley again said it followed guidelines and best practice, adding that treatment options may be discussed at multidisciplinary team meetings to identify the most suitable options.

Follow up investigations would be carried out where there is ongoing pain or other symptoms, which could identify unrelated medical conditions as the source of pain, the spokesperson said.

Continue Reading

UK

‘A butcher who destroyed my life’: Surgeon may never return to UK to face justice over ‘botched’ operations

Published

on

By

'A butcher who destroyed my life': Surgeon may never return to UK to face justice over 'botched' operations

A disgraced surgeon accused of harming patients is unlikely to ever return from Libya to face justice, a lawyer familiar with the country’s legal system has told Sky News.

Former NHS Tayside neurosurgeon Sam Eljamel is originally from Libya and is believed to be operating there now.

Suspended from his work at a hospital in Dundee in 2013, Eljamel is accused by dozens of former patients of carrying out life-changing “botched” brain and spinal operations. The claims include removing the wrong body parts.

Sam Eljamel. Pic: DC Thomson & Co Ltd
Image:
Sam Eljamel. Pic: DC Thomson & Co Ltd

A public inquiry is under way and Police Scotland is examining up to 200 patient cases as part of an ongoing criminal investigation.

‘Paralysed by my surgeon’

Annemarie Pymm, a former tax worker, lives in Perth with her husband Dougie. She is paralysed and can barely speak after undergoing two brain operations by Eljamel to remove cancer and requires 24/7 care.

Sitting next to his wife, Mr Pymm told Sky News: “She can’t walk. She can’t talk. She can’t do anything for herself.”

More on Libya

Annemarie Pymm with her husband Dougie
Image:
Annemarie Pymm with her husband Dougie

The Pymms are part of a growing group of families who are demanding answers and accountability.

“Professor Eljamel… Do you know what he has done to my wife and 200 other people? He mutilated them,” Dougie said.

Eljamel was head of neurosurgery at NHS Tayside from 1995 to 2013. He was lauded as one of Europe’s leading brain surgeons and boasted a CV that was pages long.

When allegations of malpractice first emerged, NHS bosses allowed the surgeon to operate on a further 111 patients unsupervised despite being under clinical supervision.

Health chiefs have since admitted patients were put at unnecessary risk.

Protesters outside the Scottish Parliament asking for a public inquiry into the care given to patients by Eljamel. Pic: PA
Image:
Protesters outside the Scottish Parliament asking for a public inquiry into the care given to patients by Eljamel. Pic: PA

His final NHS patient: ‘I sued and won’

One of those patients was Jules Rose, who is now the lead campaigner in this scandal.

Medical notes reveal Ms Rose, who lives in Kinross, had a tear gland removed instead of a brain tumour during Eljamel’s last ever surgery on Scottish soil.

She was unaware he was under investigation at the time and has since won a successful lawsuit against the NHS.

Jules Rose
Image:
Jules Rose

She said: “Where were the checks and balances in all of this? Where were the systemic processes that Eljamel should have been going through?”

The former marathon runner describes Eljamel as a “butcher” who has destroyed her life.

Sky News contacted the hospital in Misrata, Libya, where Eljamel is thought to be employed. An employee confirmed he works there almost every day but declined our request to speak directly to him.

A campaigner outside the Scottish Parliament in February. Pic: PA
Image:
A campaigner outside the Scottish Parliament in February. Pic: PA

Will Eljamel ever be extradited to UK?

A formal extradition treaty exists between the UK and Libya, allowing Libyan nationals to be sent back to Britain in certain criminal circumstances.

Professor Peter Watson is a senior lawyer who represented British families in the decades-long diplomatic and legal battle with Libya over the Lockerbie bombing, the UK’s worst-ever terror attack.

All passengers and crew on board Pan Am flight 103 were killed when the plane exploded over the Scottish town in 1988.

Read more from Sky News:
Suspect in National Guard shooting charged

British man missing after falling from cruise ship

The subsequent investigation, involving Mr Watson, centred on discussions with authorities in Libya after various Libyan nationals were accused of the terror attack.

Sky News visited him to ask him, with his knowledge of how the system operates there, his views on the prospect of Eljamel being brought back to Scotland to face any formal charges, if any were brought forward.

Professor Peter Watson speaks to Sky's Connor Gillies
Image:
Professor Peter Watson speaks to Sky’s Connor Gillies

Mr Watson told Sky News: “I think the challenge is probably too big. The steps that Crown Office and the police would be required to take would require the cooperation and agreement of the Libyan authorities. It is difficult to see how that would happen.”

He concluded: “Libya is a country in turmoil. Various factions are fighting to take control of various parts. You’d have to persuade the Libyan authorities that it was in the interests of their citizens and of Libya for this process to take place.”

A protester's sign outside the Scottish Parliament in 2023. Pic: PA
Image:
A protester’s sign outside the Scottish Parliament in 2023. Pic: PA

Public inquiry gets under way

In 2021, a Scottish court ordered Dr Eljamel to pay a former patient £2.8m in compensation after a judge ruled the surgeon was entirely to blame for leaving a woman with serious disabilities.

A judge-led independent public inquiry examining what went wrong is now under way in Edinburgh.

It is examining, among other areas, failures including a lack of effective systems to pick up on recurrent mistakes by surgeons during Eljamel’s tenure in Scotland.

Earlier this week, it emerged that 40 hard copy theatre logbooks containing information on surgeries carried out by Eljamel between 1995 and 2013 had been destroyed.

They were wrecked in July this year despite a formal “Do Not Destroy” order being in place for the inquiry.

NHS Tayside has apologised and said it will fully comply with the investigations and inquiries.

Continue Reading

UK

Questions over evidence used by UK police to ban Maccabi Tel Aviv fans from Aston Villa match

Published

on

By

Questions over evidence used by UK police to ban Maccabi Tel Aviv fans from Aston Villa match

West Midlands Police is facing growing scrutiny over the information used to ban Maccabi Tel Aviv supporters from Aston Villa, with counterparts in Amsterdam disputing the evidence it provided on high-profile incidents involving the Israeli club’s fan base.

The ban was imposed after the force in Birmingham concluded that the visit of Maccabi was too “high risk” to allow visiting fans amid inflamed community tensions over the Gaza war.

And the decision will be challenged by the Home Affairs Select Committee on Monday when leaders from the force are questioned by MPs.

Police among fans outside the ground. File pic: PA
Image:
Police among fans outside the ground. File pic: PA

Pic: PA
Image:
Pic: PA

It comes as Sky News can reveal officers only classified Thursday’s Europa League match between Aston Villa and BSC Young Boys as “medium risk” despite three UEFA disciplinary cases against the Swiss club since 2023 for fan unrest, including partial stadium bans being imposed.

And some of those Young Boys fans then fought with police and a Villa player was left bloodied by a plastic cup being thrown.

West Midlands Police has not explained in any more detail about the lower classification for the Young Boys match.

While Maccabi has not been hit with any UEFA disciplinary cases recently for hooliganism, the club’s Europa League game at Ajax in November 2024 raised concerns in Birmingham about the ability to allow Israeli fans.

More on Gaza

Understanding it means going back to November 2024 – and the days of disorder around Maccabi’s Europa League match against Ajax.

It’s this incident that had to be assessed by authorities in England when deciding how to police Maccabi’s visit to Villa this month.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

New revelations around policing at Villa-Maccabi match

Protesters are pictured outside the stadium before the match.
File pic: Reuters
Image:
Protesters are pictured outside the stadium before the match.
File pic: Reuters

But the accuracy of this assessment has been called into question.

Sky News has heard in depth from Dutch police about what they told officers in England about the threat posed by the Israeli supporters in a video call at the start of October.

What’s not doubted by the police or indeed Maccabi is that Israeli ultras – more violent fans – were involved in attacks and anti-Palestinian chants in Amsterdam. They armed themselves with belts and padlocks, attacking taxis and scooter-riders.

Maccabi Tel Aviv players line up in front of an empty end at Villa Park. File pic: PA
Image:
Maccabi Tel Aviv players line up in front of an empty end at Villa Park. File pic: PA

Contradictions in police accounts

But there are some apparent contradictions between the accounts of the two forces.

In dispute are elements of a document produced by West Midlands Police to justify advice to Birmingham’s Safety Advisory Group, which has been leaked.

It effectively set out why Maccabi fans were deemed too dangerous to be allowed into Villa.

A key claim from West Midlands Police is that 500 to 600 Maccabi fans apparently intentionally targeted Muslim communities in Amsterdam. Amsterdam police says there were 500 to 800 high-risk Maccabi supporters.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Heavy police presence for Aston Villa v Maccabi Tel Aviv

Pro-Israel supporters are led away from Villa Park by police. File pic: PA
Image:
Pro-Israel supporters are led away from Villa Park by police. File pic: PA

Muslims ‘not targeted’ by visiting fans

But the force told me: “We did not see large groups of Maccabi’s (fans) going into Muslim populated areas to target Muslims.”

Asked to clarify, it added: “Provocations came from both sides. This all happened in the city centre. That’s not the same as a large group (of) Maccabi (fans) going into a Muslim populated area to target Muslims.”

Amsterdam police also made no reference in a detailed timeline provided to us of the notable claim by West Midlands Police that Maccabi fans threw “innocent members of the public into the river”.

The five people convicted in Amsterdam were all for violence against Israelis.

It is not clear why no Israeli fans were prosecuted, given that the Amsterdam police cited in detail attacks by them.

Amsterdam Police Statement In Full

The Amsterdam police and the West Midlands Police spoke during a video meeting in the first week of October.

The subject of the conversation was the risk of having Maccabi supporters visiting the city of Birmingham for a European football match.

The Amsterdam police made clear that among Maccabi supporters there were 500-800 ultras visiting the city in November 2024.

Like other European ultra groups, these fans were organised and, on some occasions, seemed willing to fight.

The Amsterdam police also stated that a lot of disorder in those days were the result of different groups provoking each other.

Read the full statement here

‘Offensive, racist expressions’

“Compared to other European high-risk football supporters, Amsterdam police makes the assessment that the Maccabi supporters were quite self-confident and were not afraid – neither of opponents, nor of the police,” the timeline provided to us said.

It goes on to highlight “offensive, racist expressions” in Hebrew shouted by Maccabi fans.

It turns to the situation towards the city centre after the match.

Mounted police outside Villa Park for the Aston Villa v Maccabi Tel Aviv game. Pic: PA
Image:
Mounted police outside Villa Park for the Aston Villa v Maccabi Tel Aviv game. Pic: PA

Police officers outside Villa Park before Aston Villa's Europa League match against Maccabi Tel Aviv. File pic: PA
Image:
Police officers outside Villa Park before Aston Villa’s Europa League match against Maccabi Tel Aviv. File pic: PA

Referencing “Maccabi Tel Aviv rioters”, it says: “Along the way, they equip themselves with materials such as metal rods and stones. Stones are also thrown at taxis.

“At the same time, another development takes place: small groups of pro-Palestinian rioters actively search for individuals they perceive as Israeli, Jewish or Maccabi supporters. At 23.55pm, the first ‘flash’ attacks on Maccabi supporters begin at Dam Square.

“Several dozen violent incidents in the city centre follow. The pro-Palestinian rioters use various methods to reach their victims: some move on foot; others use scooters or taxis to move quickly through the city.

“This makes it difficult for the police to intervene quickly and effectively. This proves to be a fundamentally different form of violence compared to earlier situations, which involved clashes between groups facing each other.

“From 1.24am onward, reports of attacks decrease, but fear among Jewish residents of Amsterdam and Israeli tourists remains high. Multiple reports come in of people feeling unsafe and not daring to leave their hotels.”

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

‘Hooliganism’ blamed for Maccabi Tel Aviv ban

A West Midlands Police document does say there was evidence of “incitement to attack Jewish fans”, but they largely overlook what officers in Amsterdam said was the threat posed to the Maccabi contingent.

The force had to assess the resources needed for the match.

It claims 5,000 officers had to be deployed in Amsterdam. But the Dutch police confirmed to us there were only 1,200 police deployed.

It’s raising new questions for the Aston Villa-supporting Tory MP Nick Timothy – a former Home Office special adviser – about the characterisation of Maccabi fans.

“This isn’t just about a football match,” Mr Timothy told Sky News. “This isn’t just about the rights of the Israeli supporters to come to Britain and watch their team. This is about whether we can trust the police to do their job without fear or favour, as the police oath requires them to do. And whether we can trust them to tell us the truth.

“They’ve presented an intelligence report that they say is based on information provided by the Dutch. The Dutch say that that information is not true”.

Read more on Sky News:
‘False claims’ fuelled fan ban
Maccabi chief condemns ‘racist hate’
Emergency measures over anti-Israeli attacks

West Midlands Police said in a statement it is “satisfied in the veracity of our information and intelligence, which put public safety at the heart of our decision-making.

“We will be giving evidence to the Home Affairs Select Committee on Monday 1 December and therefore it would be inappropriate to make further comment at this time.”

The only time the force has so far explained the decision on camera was in an interview with me on the day of the Villa match when Chief Superintendent Tom Joyce highlighted “quite significant levels of hooliganism” among Maccabi fans.

He said banning supporters is not a “precedent but it’s one we would use rarely, clearly”.

Few policing decisions have been as contentious, as scrutinised this year, with Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer this week expressing fresh concern about the evidence used to ban by officers.

Continue Reading

UK

Reeves fighting claims she ‘lied’ about deficit – as Starmer set to back her budget

Published

on

By

Reeves fighting claims she 'lied' about deficit - as Starmer set to back her budget

Rachel Reeves is fighting claims that she “lied” to the public about the state of the finances in the run-up to last week’s budget – in which she raised £26bn in taxes.

It follows a letter published by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), the official watchdog which draws up forecasts for the Treasury, published on Friday.

In it, OBR chair Richard Hughes (who is already under fire for the leak of the budget measures) said he’d taken the unusual step of revealing the forecasts it had submitted to Rachel Reeves in the 10 weeks before the budget, and which is normally shrouded in secrecy.

The OBR sent this table revealing its timings and outcomes of the fiscal forecasts reported to the Treasury
Image:
The OBR sent this table revealing its timings and outcomes of the fiscal forecasts reported to the Treasury

Sir Keir Starmer congratulates Rachel Reeves after the budget
Image:
Sir Keir Starmer congratulates Rachel Reeves after the budget

The letter reveals this timeline, which has plunged the chancellor into trouble:

17 September – first forecast

At this point, it was already known that the UK’s growth forecast would be downgraded. The chancellor was told that the “increases in real wages and inflation” would offset the impact of the downgrade. The deficit forecast by the end of the parliament was £2.5bn.

20 October – second forecast

More on Budget 2025

By this point, that deficit had turned into a small surplus of £2.1bn – i.e. the productivity downgrade has been wiped out and “both of the government’s fiscal targets were on course to be met”.

31 October – third forecast

The final one before the Treasury put forward its measures. The finances were now net positive with a £4.2bn surplus.

But the accusation is that Rachel Reeves was presenting an entirely different picture – that she had a significant black hole which needed to be filled.

13 October

Ms Reeves tells Sky’s deputy political editor Sam Coates the productivity downgrade has been challenging but added: “I won’t duck those challenges. Of course we’re looking at tax and spending.”

👉 Click here to listen to Electoral Dysfunction on your podcast app 👈

27 October

With the Treasury now aware the deficit had been wiped out, the Financial Times was briefed about a “£20bn hit to public finances.”

4 November

Ms Reeves gave a dawn news conference in Downing Street, setting the stage for tax rises. She says she wants people “to understand the circumstances we are facing… productivity performance is weaker than previously thought,” adding that “we will all have to contribute”.

10 November

Ms Reeves tells BBC 5Live that sticking to Labour’s promises not to raise taxes would require “things like deep cuts in capital spending”. The stage seemed set for the nuclear option – the first income tax rise in decades.

13 November

After headlines about a plot to oust Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, the Financial Times reported that the chancellor had dropped plans to raise income tax because of improved forecasts [which we now know hadn’t changed since 31 October], putting the black hole closer to £20bn than £30bn.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Budget 2025: ‘It’s sickening’

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

‘You’ve broken a manifesto pledge, haven’t you?’

The prime minister’s spokesperson has insisted Ms Reeves did not mislead voters and set out her choices, and the reasons for them, at the budget.

But the issue has had enormous cut-through, with newspapers giving it top billing.

The Sun’s Saturday front page headline – “Chancer of the Exchequer – fury at Reeves ‘lies’ over £30bn black hole” – will not have been pleasant reading for ministers.

She now has questions to answer about the chaotic run-up to the budget – of briefing and counter-briefing, which critics say now makes little sense.

Tory leader Kemi Badenoch said on Saturday: “We have learned that the chancellor misrepresented the OBR’s forecasts. She sold her ‘Benefits Street’ budget on a lie. Honesty matters… she has to go.”

Economist Paul Johnson, former director of the respected Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS), told The Times the chancellor’s 4 November news briefing “probably was misleading. It was clearly intended to have an impact and confirm what independent forecasters like [the National Institute of Economic and Social Research] and the IFS had been saying.

“It was designed to confirm a narrative that there was a fiscal hole that needed to be filled with significant tax rises. In fact, as she knew at the time, no such hole existed.”

Read more on budget fallout:
Reeves accused over forecasts
Hospitality ‘needs a lifeline’

Ms Reeves is doing a round of morning interviews on Sunday in which she’ll be grilled over which of her budget measures will generate economic growth (which the government claimed was its number one priority), why they have been unable to tackle rising welfare spending and now about why markets and voters were left confused by dire warnings.

She may claim that she never personally said there was a specific £30bn black hole or that the extra headroom generated by the tax rises will ensure she does not have to come back for more next year.

In an interview with The Saturday’s Guardian, Ms Reeves said she had “chosen to protect public spending” on schools and hospitals in the budget.

She confirmed an income tax rise had been looked at, and insisted that OBR forecasts “move around” after the Treasury has submitted its planned measures. There are plenty more questions to come.

Meanwhile, Sir Keir will use a speech on Monday to support Ms Reeves’ budget decisions and set out his long-term growth plans.

He will praise the budget for bearing down on the cost of living, ensuring economic stability through greater headroom, lower inflation and a commitment to fiscal rules, and protecting investment and public services.

Sir Keir will say “economic growth is beating the forecasts”, but that the government must go “further and faster” to encourage it.

Rachel Reeves will be speaking to Trevor Phillips on his Sunday show from 8.30am this morning. He will also be joined by Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch and Liberal Democrat deputy leader Daisy Cooper.

Continue Reading

Trending