It’s a new era for the College Football Playoff, with the field growing from four to 12 this season. That means three times as many programs will gain entry, but, beginning with Tuesday’s initial playoff rankings, there’s three times as much room for outrage, too.

Under the old rules, there was a simple line of demarcation that separated the elated from the angry: Who’s in?

Now, there are so many more reasons for nitpicking the committee’s decisions, from first-round byes to hosting a home game to whether your supposedly meaningful conference has been eclipsed by teams from the Group of 5.

And if the first rankings are any indication, it’s going to be a fun year for fury. There’s little logic to be taken from the initial top 25 beyond the committee’s clear love for the Big Ten. Penn State and Indiana make the top eight despite having only one win combined over an ESPN FPI top-40 team (Penn State over Iowa). That Ohio State checks in at No. 2 ahead of Georgia is the most inexplicable decision involving Georgia since Charlie Daniels suggested the devil lost that fiddle contest. Oregon is a reasonable No. 1, but the Ducks still came within a breath of losing to Boise State. Indeed, the Big Ten’s nonconference record against the Power 4 this season is 6-8, just a tick better than the ACC and well behind the SEC’s mark of 10-6.

But this is the fun of early November rankings. The committee is still finding its footing, figuring out what to prioritize and what to ignore, what’s signal and what’s noise. And that’s where the outrage really helps. It’s certainly not signal, but it can be a really loud noise.

This week’s Anger Index:

There are only two possible explanations for BYU’s treatment in this initial ranking. The first is that the committee members are too sleepy to watch games beyond the Central time zone. The second, and frankly, less rational one, is they simply didn’t do much homework.

It’s certainly possible the committee members are so enthralled with metrics such as the FPI (where BYU ranks 28th) or SP+ (22nd) that they’ve determined the Cougars’ actual record isn’t as important. This is incredibly foolish. The FPI and SP+ certainly have their value, but they’re probabilistic metrics, designed to gauge the likelihood of future success. They’re in no way a ranking of actual results. (That’s why USC is still No. 17 in the FPI, despite Lincoln Riley spending his days wistfully scrolling through old pictures of Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray and wondering if Oklahoma might want to get back together.)

To look at actual results paints a clear picture.

BYU (No. 4) has a better strength of record than Ohio State (No. 5), has played roughly the same quality schedule as Texas and has two wins against other teams ranked in the committee’s top 25 — as many as Ohio State, Texas, Penn State, Tennessee and Indiana (all ranked ahead of the Cougars) combined.

Indiana’s rags-to-riches story is wonderful, of course, but how can the committee compare what BYU has done (wins over SMU and Kansas State) against Indiana’s 103rd-ranked strength of schedule?

And this particular snub has significant effects. The difference between No. 8 and No. 9 is a home game in the first round, of course, though as a potential conference champion, that’s a moot point. But what if BYU loses a game — perhaps the Big 12 title game? That could not only doom the Cougars from getting a first-round bye, but it could quite likely set up a scenario in which the Big 12 is shuffled outside the top four conferences entirely, passed by upstart Boise State.

What’s clear from this first round of rankings is the committee absolutely loves the Big Ten — with four teams ranked ahead of a subjectively more accomplished BYU team — and the Big 12 is going to face some serious headwinds.

There’s a great, though little watched, TV show from the 2010s called “Rectify,” about a man who escapes death row after new evidence is found, only to be constantly harassed by the same system that fraudulently locked him away for 20 years. This is basically the story of SMU.

Let’s do a quick blind résumé here.

Team A: 8-1 record, No. 13 strength of record, two wins vs. ranked opponents, loss to SP+ No. 22, .578 opponent win percentage

Team B: 7-1 record, No. 15 strength of record, two wins vs. ranked opponents, loss to SP+ No. 91, .567 opponent win percentage

OK, you probably guessed Team A is SMU. The Mustangs have wins against Louisville and Pitt — both relatively emphatic — and their lone loss came to No. 9 BYU, which came before a quarterback change and included five red zone drives that amounted to only six total points.

Team B? That’s Notre Dame. The Irish have the worst loss by far (to Northern Illinois) of any team in the top 25, beat a common opponent by the same score (though, while SMU outgained Louisville by 20 yards, the Cardinals actually outgained Notre Dame by 115) and have played one fewer game.

The difference? SMU has the stigma — of the death penalty, of the upstart program new to the Power 4, of being unworthy. Notre Dame is the big brand, and that results in being ranked three spots higher and, if the playoff were held today, getting in, while the Mustangs are left out.

There are three two-loss SEC teams ranked ahead of Ole Miss, which seems to be a perfectly reasonable consensus if you look at the AP poll, too. But are we sure that’s so reasonable?

Two stats we like to look at to measure a team’s quality are success rate (how often does a team make a play that improves its odds of winning) and explosiveness. Measure the differentials in each between offense and defense, then plot those out, and you’ll get a pretty clear look of who’s truly dominant in college football this season.

Explosive Play differential vs. Successful Play differential

Auburn & Ark make no sense
Iowa & Iowa St are twinsies!
Is Ole Miss undervalued? pic.twitter.com/h87SKCdOtr

— 💫🅰️♈️🆔 (@ADavidHaleJoint) November 3, 2024

That outer band that features Penn State, Texas, Miami, Ohio State and Indiana (and notably, not Oregon, Alabama, LSU or Texas A&M)? That’s where Ole Miss lives.

The Rebels have two losses this season, each by three points, both in games they outgained the winning team. They lost to LSU on the road and, yes, somehow lost to a dismal Kentucky team. But hey, LSU lost to USC, too. It has been a weird season.

SP+ loves Ole Miss. The Rebels check in at No. 4 there, behind only Ohio State, Texas and Georgia.

The FPI agrees, ranking the Rebels fifth.

In ESPN’s game control metric, no team is better. Ole Miss has the third-best average in-game win percentage. That suggests a lot of strange twists, and bad luck was involved with its losses. These are things the committee should be evaluating when comparing like teams.

But how about this comparison?

Team A: 7-2, 23 points per game scoring margin vs. FBS, 1 loss to unranked, three wins vs. SP+ top 40

Team B: 7-2, 19 points per game scoring margin vs. FBS, 1 loss to unranked, three wins vs. SP+ top 40

Pretty similar, eh?

Of course, one of them is Ole Miss. That’s Team A this time around.

Team B is Alabama, ranked five spots higher.

Sure, this situation can be resolved quite easily this weekend with a win over Georgia, but Ole Miss starting at the back of the pack of SEC contenders seems like a miss by the committee, even if the math will change substantially before the next rankings are revealed.

Oh, thanks so much for the No. 25 nod, committee. All Army has done is win every game without trailing the entire season. Last season, when Liberty waltzed through its weakest-in-the-nation schedule, the committee had no objections to giving the Flames enough love to make a New Year’s Six bowl. But Army? At No. 25? Thirteen spots behind Boise State, the Knights’ competition for the Group of 5’s bid? Something tells us some spies from Air Force have infiltrated the committee’s room in some sort of Manchurian Candidate scenario.

Sure, the Seminoles are terrible now, and yes, the committee this season has plenty of new faces, but that doesn’t mean folks in Tallahassee have forgiven or forgotten what happened a year ago. Before the committee’s playoff snub, FSU had won 19 straight games and averaged 39 points. Since the snub, the Noles are 1-9 and haven’t scored 21 points in any game. Who’s to blame for this? Mike Norvell? The coaching staff? DJ Uiagalelei and the other struggling QBs? Well, sure. But it’s much easier to just blame the committee. Those folks killed Florida State’s playoff hopes and ended their run of success. The least they could do this year is rank them No. 25 just for fun.

Also angry: South Carolina (5-3, unranked), Vanderbilt (6-3, unranked), Georgia (7-1, No. 3), Louisville (6-3, No. 22), everyone who is not in the Big Ten.

USC is making a change at quarterback, replacing starter Miller Moss with UNLV transfer Jayden Maiava, head coach Lincoln Riley confirmed Tuesday.

After the Trojans lost four of their past five games and fell to 4-5 on the season, coach Lincoln Riley will opt to give the sophomore starting reps when they host Nebraska on Nov. 16. USC is currently on its second bye week of the season.

“When we went back and looked at it, we felt like it was in the best interest of the team to give Jayden a chance here,” Riley said after Tuesday’s practice. “This is not a reflection of anything more than we have another good player in the room and we feel like he gives us a good opportunity. … It’s really that simple.”

Moss began the season by leading the Trojans to a signature victory over LSU in Las Vegas, but he has regressed over the past few games.

Playing behind a shaky offensive line, Moss has made crucial mistakes of his own. In his past five games, the junior has thrown seven interceptions. Against Washington on Saturday, Moss threw three costly picks in a 26-21 loss.

In nine games as starter, Moss has thrown for 2,555 yards with 18 touchdowns and nine interceptions.

“You could literally not change one thing that Miller’s done and we could be sitting here with a really, really good record right now,” Riley said. USC has notably lost five fourth-quarter leads this season. “Miller has done a very good job. He’s been a really good leader for this team. He’s been loyal to this program. He has worked hard, and he has done a lot of really good things on the football field.”

Maiava transferred to USC this offseason after a strong freshman campaign at UNLV during which he threw for 3,085 yards and 17 touchdowns. He completed 63.5% of his passes and added three rushing touchdowns.

“He’s improved throughout the year. He improved in camp. And he’s continued to improve,” Riley said. “It’s not easy being the backup, and I felt like he’s handled it that well. He’s a talented kid. In these instances, it’s tough. It’s like you’ve got two children, especially at that position, and only one of them is going to be out there. But we’re obviously excited for Jayden to get this opportunity.”

Though Riley said he is not expecting the switch to unlock a different aspect of the Trojans’ offense or add something that’s missing, Maiava is a more mobile option under center. In limited appearances this season, Maiava has showcased his ability to escape the pocket and make plays on the run. He has made eight completions for 66 yards and ran the ball three times for 27 yards, including a touchdown.

After backing up Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams for two seasons, Moss’ first start came in the 2023 Holiday Bowl, when he threw for a bowl-record six touchdowns and staked his claim to be the starter in 2024. Though the quarterback competition between Maiava and Moss extended into fall camp, Riley was adamant throughout team practices that Moss was ahead.

Despite four losses in the past five games, Riley had remained outwardly steadfast in his confidence in Moss as the starter. At one point ahead of USC’s matchup against Rutgers two weeks ago, Riley said Moss was “100%” the starter going forward.

“He’s just got to be ready for the next opportunity, you never know how that’s going to play out,” Riley said of Moss. “The tough thing is you don’t know exactly what’s going to happen, but if I know Miller he’ll stay in a really positive mindset. He’ll come and go to work for this team and he’ll be ready for his next opportunity no matter where it is, and we’re going to continue to push and coach him to help him.”

When asked Tuesday whether the quarterback change was made with the future in mind — Moss has one year of eligibility left, and Maiava is in only his second season — Riley balked at the notion.

“You only get so many moments with this team, and so I’ve never tried to make decisions … I’m not saying you don’t think about the future, because of course we do,” Riley said. “But I think I’m in the wrong if I’m only looking at it and so this is not a decision with the future in mind.”

USC’s loss at Washington this past week puts it in danger of not securing a bowl berth. With three games remaining, the Trojans hope Maiava can provide a much-needed spark.

CLEMSON, S.C. — It has been a rough few days for Clemson coach Dabo Swinney. First, his 19th-ranked Tigers lost to Louisville on Saturday night, then he was told he couldn’t vote Tuesday at his polling place.

Swinney, whose given name is William, explained that the voting system had locked him out, saying a “William Swinney” had already voted last week. Swinney said it was his oldest son, Will, and not him.

“They done voted me out of the state,” Swinney said. “We’re 6-2 and 5-1 [in the Atlantic Coast Conference], man. They done shipped me off.”

Dabo Swinney had to complete a paper ballot and was told there will be a hearing Friday to resolve the issue.

“I was trying to do my best and be a good citizen and go vote,” he said. “Sometimes doing your best ain’t good enough. You have to keep going though, keep figuring it out.”