NEARLY TWO YEARS ago, on a Saturday night in Pasadena with little to play for between a 7-4 UCLA team and a 5-6 Cal team, Dante Moore and Fernando Mendoza faced off at the Rose Bowl in the last regular-season game.

Moore was capping off a roller-coaster freshman season with the Bruins during which he went from having the starting job, to losing it and then having it again. It was his sixth start of the year. Mendoza, meanwhile, had started his own freshman campaign as the third-string quarterback before taking hold of the gig for the Golden Bears over the last seven games of the season.

Though their journeys to that point had been far from similar, both quarterbacks had been thrown right into the cauldron as freshmen and asked to build experience on the fly while helping their teams win games. This game, which Cal won 33-7 and saw both Mendoza and Moore throw two interceptions each, was a reminder that they were far from finished products.

Two seasons later, they are set to face off again — this time with Mendoza leading Indiana and Moore leading Oregon to undefeated records, top-10 rankings and a clear path toward the College Football Playoff. In the process, both have also become NFL draft darlings, unexpected risers inside a quarterback draft class that has so far looked disjointed at best.

“That’s why Mendoza, to me, has gained the most steam,” one NFL personnel executive said.

Another NFL executive said he has Moore, not Mendoza, ranked inside the top three of his quarterback rankings.

An under-the-radar three-star and a seemingly forgotten five-star, Mendoza and Moore have both shown flashes of high-level traits that could make them not just tantalizing NFL prospects in the future, but also the perfect players to lead their teams in this very moment.

“I think we got the best quarterback in college football,” Oregon coach Dan Lanning declared after the Ducks’ win at Penn State.

“Mendoza is another one of those guys who I believe is going to play on Sunday,” Illinois defensive coordinator Aaron Henry said earlier this year. “He makes some throws, you’re like, ‘My goodness.’ … I think his downfield vision, his progressions that he makes when he’s in a pocket is absolutely incredible.”

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THERE WERE TOO many signs pointing in one direction for Mendoza. He had already graduated from Cal and was set to enter his third season under a fourth different offensive coordinator, one who he said he didn’t feel like quite aligned with his priorities.

“I wanted to be in a system that I think would translate really well to the next level,” Mendoza told ESPN in an interview before the season.

The NFL had been a childhood dream, of course, but not one he ever thought was real until the chatter began this past offseason. During his high school recruiting process, Mendoza, who’s from Miami, received offers from only Cal, FIU, Yale and Penn.

“It all kind of just went from, ‘Hey I want to go DI’ to ‘I want to start a game.’ ‘I want to win a game’ to ‘I want to become a full-time starter,'” Mendoza said. “It kind of just snowballed and then earlier this year, talking to some people, reading some things like, ‘Wow is this actually true? Can this be possible?'”

Mendoza’s improvement has been mostly linear, but the breakout happened last season when he threw for 3,004 yards on a 68.7% completion rate to go along with 16 touchdowns and six interceptions. Through five games this year, Mendoza has thrown for 1,208 yards on a 73% competition rate (top 10 in the country) while already matching his 16 touchdowns from last season with only one interception.

“I just look back at some of my clips from even fall camp last year at Cal to this year and I’m just a completely different quarterback,” Mendoza said.

The same could be said for Moore. His gap year, when he watched Dillon Gabriel excel in offensive coordinator Will Stein’s system, didn’t provide too many clues as to how he would fare, but the early returns have been stellar: 1,210 yards, 14 touchdowns and 1 interception. Like Mendoza, Moore’s completion rate (74.6%) is one of the 10 best in the country, too.

Nationally, Mendoza (0.55) and Moore (0.50) are No. 3 and 4 in EPA per dropback, trailing only USC‘s Jayden Maiava (0.63) and Marshall‘s Carlos Del Rio-Wilson (0.56). Both have two of the best touchdown passes per attempt rates in the nation — Mendoza is first with 13.1% while Moore is third with 10.4% — and no other quarterback has better touchdown-to-interception ratios than them. And the respective offenses they lead? Both are ranked inside the top 10 in SP+.

Mendoza attributes the smooth transition to coming into an established system as opposed to having to build it from the ground up himself. Through flashcard quizzes with his teammates and a copious amount of studying the playbook, Mendoza has tried to erase any learning curve, and the fact that several of those teammates have been with the program for two, three, even four years, Mendoza said, has helped elevate his own play. In other words, it’s exactly what he envisioned when he made the call to head to Bloomington.

“Everyone thinks he’s super talented,” one NFL personnel executive said of Mendoza. “He’s a big kid, he throws the ball really well. The ball comes off his hand like a legit NFL QB.”

“When his first read is not there, he kind of panics, and his mechanics go away,” the executive said. “But that’s the only negative about him as a player. Iowa gave him trouble, taking away some of the underneath stuff.”

The executive added that the possibility of Mendoza being the No. 1 pick is “not off the table.”

The elephant in the room is that this particular quarterback class doesn’t quite have the top-heavy potential that others have had in the past. It’s why, as one NFL executive put it, Mendoza and Moore (alongside Oklahoma‘s John Mateer) have been the biggest risers this season.

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MOORE’S PATH TO Oregon was not so much unexpected as much as it was delayed. He had committed to the Ducks at one point during his recruitment before changing course and heading to UCLA instead. After a season of both freshman flashes and mistakes, the departure of Chip Kelly to Ohio State made Moore’s decision easy.

“I knew I was coming to Oregon. Me and Coach Lanning had that connection, of course,” Moore told ESPN in an interview last offseason. “Everybody’s like, ‘Bro, you supposed to have been here, whatever.’ I’m like, ‘Hey man, everything happens for a reason.’ So I’m here now.”

The unconventional move to Eugene ended up being the best thing for Moore. As he sat back and watched the success Gabriel had, it was further proof that he had made the right call.

“It takes a special person, a guy that can process like Bo [Nix], like Dillon [Gabriel] and like Dante Moore to keep this thing rolling at the rate we want to keep it rolling,” Stein said.

The year on the bench and offseason workouts in Dallas alongside NFL stars like Dak Prescott and Patrick Mahomes set Moore up to be that guy. Through five games he has looked comfortable and in rhythm as part of an offense that is full of playmakers but still needs a guiding hand. For Stein, the challenge of getting the most out of any quarterback is part of the fun. Unlike Nix or Gabriel, who transferred in and were under Stein’s direction for only one season, with Moore, there has been some longer term development that has been mutually beneficial.

“To me development for a quarterback is to go to an offense that has proven to be successful and is able to set you up to play at the next level,” Stein said. “Can you go and run an NFL-style offense? Can you handle a little bit lengthier play call? Can you change the protection? Can you change the run? And then can you go out and function in a hostile environment and do that?”

Though he entered the year as quietly as a former five-star can, the even-keeled Moore has quickly amped up the volume with his play. The challenge of handling a Penn State crowd of 111,015 and leading Oregon to an overtime win in that environment felt like it was him passing his first big exam. Suddenly, he’s one of the favorites for the Heisman Trophy.

“As he’s played more, you can see he’s building on his success, confidence, belief, and he’s one of the great quarterbacks in the country,” Indiana head coach Curt Cignetti said of Moore. “There’s no doubt about it.”

While Cignetti was quick to heap praise on Moore, he has been more reserved with his own quarterback, expressing confidence in Mendoza, but always pointing out that there’s more to improve upon even as Indiana continues to win.

Yet Mendoza has a claim to being one of the “great quarterbacks in the country,” too. This season is going exactly as he imagined, after all. Going to Indiana wasn’t just about a change of scenery, an NIL boost or even fully about a chance at getting ready for the NFL.

“I want to win as many games as possible. At Cal, I had six wins both years. I really wanted at least one double-digit-win season,” Mendoza said. “I don’t play football because of external factors. I truly do love football. I would play football if I was a walk-on with no scholarship.”

Saturday’s game in Eugene will be far from the final referendum on Mendoza and Moore as prospective NFL quarterbacks. But with 16 NFL scouts scheduled to be in attendance at Autzen Stadium, all eyes will be on more than just the result this time around.

Jake Trotter contributed to this story.

The 2026 NFL draft kicks off April 23 in Pittsburgh, and we’re already breaking down prospects — especially the quarterbacks.

After a banner 2024 draft in which a record six quarterbacks went off the board in the first 12 picks, only two QBs were drafted in the first round in 2025. Will 2026 end up closer to the record 2024 crop or more like the understated 2025 version? We’ll start the journey to the answer by stacking quarterbacks who are eligible and could get picked in the 2026 class.

To clarify, I don’t expect every QB listed below to end up in the 2026 draft pool. Injuries could happen, and players could choose to stay in school and wait until 2027 (or even later in some cases). Conversely, more quarterbacks could hop on the radar between now and April. And these rankings will change and evolve as we get more information. After all, conference play is just starting up in the 2025 college football season, and we still have all-star events, the combine and pro days ahead of us.

So let’s get to it, ranking the best QBs in the 2026 class as of now.

Jump to:
Day 2 picks | Day 3 picks

Height: 6-foot-3 | Weight: 206 pounds
Class: Redshirt sophomore | Projected range: Round 1

Where he excels: Moore has been among the biggest risers in the country regardless of position thanks to his accuracy and poise. After starting his career at UCLA in 2023 and then transferring to Oregon and sitting behind Dillon Gabriel last season, Moore has been given the keys to the Ducks’ attack this season. He has flourished in the first five games, throwing for 1,210 yards, 14 touchdown passes and 1 interception while showcasing a smooth, compact release.

Moore was unflappable at Penn State on Sept. 27, completing 74.4% of his passes (29-of-39) and throwing for 248 yards. He was unaffected by the hostile environment, throwing the eventual game-winning touchdown pass in double overtime.

“It doesn’t matter if it’s the first play of the game or a deciding play in overtime, his heartbeat remains the same,” said an AFC scouting director from a QB-needy team.

Moore is a fluid passer with an above-average arm and the excellent field vision necessary to dissect defenses. Despite his thin, wiry frame, his strength in the pocket and overall calmness are two of his better attributes. His high awareness levels help him not only scan and execute throws accurately but also escape and make plays with his legs when flushed. His uncanny ability to keep his eyes forward on the move allows him to rediscover receivers when scrambling, making him just as dangerous outside the pocket as inside it. Moore’s 0.7% sack rate is the fourth-lowest percentage in the FBS; he rarely panics.

Where he needs work: Moore has played at a high level so far this season, but the sample size is still small. He’s also young (doesn’t turn 21 until after the draft), so scouts want to see how he does in more big games, as Penn State is the only high-quality defense he has faced thus far this season. That could happen quickly, as the Ducks host No. 7 Indiana on Saturday and are in good position to make the Big Ten championship game and qualify for the College Football Playoff. As far as on-field things to work on, Moore has been inconsistent driving the ball on underneath throws.

There’s plenty of uncertainty about what Moore will decide to do at season’s end. With two seasons of eligibility remaining, he has the option of returning to Oregon in 2026 for his redshirt junior season. But he has put himself in position to be drafted highly if his quality play continues.

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Height: 6-foot-5 | Weight: 225 pounds
Class: Redshirt junior | Projected range: Round 1

Where he excels: There always seems to be a quarterback who quickly surges from Day 2-3 consideration before the season into early Round 1 (see Jayden Daniels and Cam Ward). Mendoza is the leading candidate to fill that role this year. He transferred to Indiana in the offseason after spending his first three seasons at Cal. He generated plenty of buzz in the offseason, which has carried over into the first few games of the 2025 campaign. Mendoza’s 16 touchdown passes ranks second in the FBS, and he has thrown for 1,208 passing yards and only one interception.

Mendoza is a lanky, decisive pocket passer who makes split-second decisions, which fits perfectly in Indiana’s quick-passing, efficient scheme. Half of his passing yards this season have come on run-pass options or concepts that include zero- or one-step drops. Attaching isolated or singular routes behind run-game concepts has been beneficial for Mendoza, who is comfortable with reads that put single defenders in conflict. His three-quarter throwing motion makes him ideal for the Hoosiers’ scheme.

He has also been phenomenal in the red zone. His 13 red zone touchdowns is four more than the next-best FBS quarterback.

Where he needs work: While Mendoza is comfortable within the confines of the pocket, he struggles when forced off his original launch point. He has completed only 16.7% of his passes when on the move, showing inaccuracy when flushed outside the pocket, moving his feet or in scramble situations. He has also had issues against pressure, completing only 45.8% of his passes there while being sacked five times.

Mendoza has asserted himself as one of the top passers in the 2026 class and is on an upward trajectory, but he will be tested down the road. Along with Saturday’s game against Oregon, Mendoza will also play at Penn State on Nov. 8. Those are prime opportunities for him to stake a claim as this class’s QB1.

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Height: 6-foot-3 | Weight: 240 pounds
Class: Redshirt sophomore | Projected range: Late Round 1-Early Day 2

Where he excels: Multiple scouts told me before the season that Sellers was one of the favorites to be the top QB in the 2026 class. He has a chiseled frame, a powerful arm and dynamic running ability, making him a high-impact dual-threat prospect.

Sellers has 886 passing yards, 4 touchdown throws and 1 interception this season while adding 98 rushing yards and another touchdown. He has greatly improved his accuracy, with his 7.2% off-target percentage ranking 19th in the FBS and a clear upgrade over his 13.6% figure in 2024, which ranked 88th. He can put the ball where it needs to go when operating in structure and trusting what he sees downfield.

I think he is equipped to thrive immediately in the NFL. Sellers’ pocket strength to escape and avoid the rush when things are crumbling around him will be among the best in the league as soon as he arrives. He is a powerful runner who is extremely difficult to corral and bring down.

Where he needs work: While Sellers is talented, he’s still working through the nuances of seeing, reading and reacting to defenses as a passer. When is it all going to come together? It’s the question that nearly all scouts I’ve talked to continue to ask, and they feel South Carolina’s offense isn’t boosting him.

“I like his skill set, but that offense just isn’t helping him grow right now,” an NFC director of scouting said. “If a team with a good offensive playcaller can get their hands on him and be patient, I think he has a tremendous ceiling, but it has to be a long, patient process.”

A leaky offensive line hasn’t done Sellers any favors. He has faced pressure on 42.5% of his dropbacks, the eighth most in the FBS. He has also been sacked on an FBS-high 12.4% of his dropbacks, and his 2.95-second average time to throw ranks 120th out of 138 quarterbacks. And he must develop better pace on short-to-intermediate throws, as he routinely makes those passes too hot to handle for receivers.

All of this makes him an extremely polarizing passer in NFL circles, but he’ll get plenty of chances to change that narrative. Starting Saturday at LSU, Sellers will face a five-game gauntlet that also includes Oklahoma, Alabama, Ole Miss and Texas A&M.

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Height: 6-foot-1 | Weight: 205 pounds
Class: Redshirt junior | Projected range: Early-mid Day 2

Where he excels: Simpson has been a big surprise, especially after a disappointing all-around performance in Week 1 against Florida State. He has looked completely different since, throwing for 1,478 passing yards and 13 touchdowns to one interception in five games. He has shown maturity and calmness for a first-year starter along with B-level arm strength, as nothing seems to faze him in the pocket.

Simpson’s 84.2% catchable pass attempt rate ranks 11th in the FBS — he routinely delivers in-stride passes. He has also shown pocket maneuverability that’s near the top of this class, with an underrated athleticism that allows him to make plays out of structure. Six of his 15 total touchdowns (passing and rushing) have come when Simpson was outside the pocket. That, plus a keen ability to recognize and adjust to pre-snap looks, has won him fans in the scouting community.

“He’s grown on me a lot over these past few weeks,” an AFC area scout said. “I think he has a chance to get into the Round 1 discussion if he stays on this current trajectory.”

Where he needs work: Simpson sometimes doesn’t recognize when a play is over. He tends to hold the ball longer than necessary and run around in circles in the pocket while trying to extend plays that are clearly busted. Therefore, he loses yardage with negative plays that could have been avoided by checking down, running or tossing the ball out of bounds.

Simpson also has a small sample size of five career starts. While his past four starts have been very positive, one-year college starters have a low NFL hit rate. Simpson’s ascension is noteworthy, but scouts will remain somewhat wary of him until he provides more tape as a starter.

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Height: 6-foot-4 | Weight: 220 pounds
Class: Sixth-year senior | Projected range: Early-mid Day 2

Where he excels: Once regarded as a candidate for the No. 1 pick in 2025, Beck’s inconsistencies resulted in him entering the transfer portal after a disappointing final season at Georgia. But Beck has started to revive his draft stock at Miami. A rhythmic passer who is at his best when allowed to play on-beat, he has 1,213 passing yards, 11 touchdown throws and 3 interceptions this season.

Beck has been helped by a more consistent and improved receiving structure around him and is looking more like what he showed in 2023 versus 2024. He is a balanced pocket passer who wants to methodically dissect and deliver against defenses. His game is centered around accuracy and decisiveness, so he wastes little time getting the ball out and remains synchronized with progressions. His 74.4% adjusted completion percentage this season is the 28th-highest mark among all FBS passers.

Beck is coming off another standout performance against a ranked opponent. In last week’s win over Florida State, he recorded his fifth career game with four or more touchdown passes. Beck has reentered the early-round discussion and continues to trend upward.

Where he needs work: Teams that have been able to consistently generate early pressure against Beck have been able to knock him off his game. Beck’s completion percentage when his feet are planted (75.7%) is significantly better than when he’s forced to move from his original launch point (57.1%).

Beck will need to be drafted to a team where he’s the final piece of the puzzle rather than one that lacks surrounding playmakers; he’s more reliant on good infrastructure than most QBs. The Miami offensive line has been key, as Beck’s 17.7% pressure rate faced is the third lowest in the FBS. He gets an average of 3.08 seconds to throw the ball (12th best) and has been sacked only four times (fifth fewest). But can he hold up when conditions are less ideal?

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Height: 6-foot-1 | Weight: 224 pounds
Class: Redshirt junior | Projected range: Early-mid Day 2

Where he excels: Before arriving in Norman, Mateer had a breakout junior season at Washington State in 2024, finishing with 3,139 passing yards, 29 touchdown passes and 7 interceptions to go along with 826 yards and another 15 scores on the ground. Many scouts identified him as a prime candidate for a jump like what Ward — who also played at Washington State — had in the last cycle.

One could argue that Mateer was the hottest QB prospect in the country in September, highlighted by standout performances against Michigan and Auburn. He plays with a “him against the world” mindset, employing a rugged play style and sudden side-arm release. He has plenty of zip on his passes but can also layer the ball with precision in the intermediate to deep areas of the field. Mateer produces at a high level, as his 351.3 yards of total offense ranks second in the FBS while his 23 plays of 20-plus yards is tied for fourth most.

Mateer is also an underrated runner. His competitiveness can be used on designed quarterback runs and in creating yards when passing concepts are well-covered by defenses. He rushed for five touchdowns in his first four games before being sidelined with a broken bone in his throwing hand suffered against Auburn, an injury that required surgery.

“Ultimate competitor, man,” another NFC scouting director said. “It doesn’t matter if the game is 28-28 or if he’s down 28-0, he’s going to keep firing it with 100% confidence.”

Where he needs work: Mateer has a lot of unconventional mechanics and mannerisms in the pocket. There are times when he has random movements in his upper and/or lower body when throwing. Those mechanics, combined with his bouncy nature while allowing concepts to unfold, have resulted in spraying the ball high and outside the strike zone. He must tone down his herky-jerky nature in the pocket and show more patience in structure. Mateer welcomes playing in chaos but sometimes to the point where his impatience unnecessarily increases the degree of difficulty on throws.

There are also questions about when Mateer will return to action following his surgery and how it will affect his game.

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Height: 6-foot-1 | Weight: 205 pounds
Class: Redshirt senior | Projected range: Early-mid Day 2

Where he excels: Nussmeier entered the season with heightened expectations after a promising first season as starter. He showed flashes in 2024, throwing for 4,052 passing yards and 29 touchdowns. That had many evaluators believing that he had the potential to rise to the top of the 2026 QB class. Through five games in 2025, Nussmeier has 1,159 passing yards, 7 touchdown passes and 3 interceptions.

Nussmeier primarily operates from the pocket and plays with fearless anticipation. He throws accurately to spots in the intermediate game while showing an excellent gauge on route depth and where his receivers will finish on passing concepts. Nussmeier has a flexible arm, allowing him to easily alter his arm slots and ball trajectories to fit passes into spots, too.

He navigates the pocket well, is aware of outlets and gets the ball out of his hand quickly. Nussmeier is not sacked often, as his 3.9% sack percentage is the 46th lowest in the FBS this season. He was sacked on only 2.9% of dropbacks in 2024.

Where he needs work: Nussmeier has been reduced to attacking primarily the short area of the field this season due to LSU’s scheme of quick-hitters and frequent screen passes. While he does get to unleash the occasional go ball, he’s averaging only 6.7 air yards per target (111th in the FBS). LSU’s running game being ranked 120th in the FBS hasn’t helped matters, either.

He also has a propensity to be a daredevil with the ball, which can be a gift and a curse. Nussmeier has sporadic moments of carelessness because of his confidence in being able to anticipate throwing the ball to certain areas of the field.

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Height: 6-foot-5 | Weight: 235 pounds
Class: Senior | Projected range: Early-mid Day 2

Where he excels: Allar has prototypical size and arm strength. He also has plenty of experience, having started 34 games and played in 44 overall. He made a noticeable leap from his sophomore to junior season, increasing his completion percentage from 59.9% to 66.5%. Upon announcing his return to school, Allar was immediately expected to be one of the best QBs in this class.

Through five games, Allar has thrown for 963 passing yards, eight touchdown passes and two interceptions. He’s an above-average intermediate passer who isn’t afraid to test tight windows and can accurately hit routes in between the numbers. He exhausts progressions and delivers to targets, and he has more than enough arm strength to succeed at the next level. He also has the mobility to navigate the pocket and gain yardage that’s available.

Where he needs work: Allar’s accuracy seems to have regressed, as he has completed more than 60% of his passes only once in 2025 (Week 1 against Nevada). His 13% off-target percentage ranks 98th in the FBS, and Allar has moments where he puts the ball too high or low. He tends to make receivers work harder than they should to secure catches. Scouts are also hesitant about his play in Penn State’s biggest games, though he’ll have a chance to change that criticism in November with back-to-back matchups against Ohio State (Nov. 1) and Indiana (Nov. 8).

“The biggest issue is that he looks good against the low- and middle-tier teams, but he just hasn’t had that signature performance any time that he plays against the elite ones,” an AFC assistant general manager said.

In a traits-based league, I believe that there will be a team that convinces itself to draft Allar early because of his physical attributes and a belief it can reconstruct his lower half to improve his ball placement. Allar will need to be in a true under-center, dropback offense that attacks the intermediate and deeper portions of the field.

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Height: 6-foot-2 | Weight: 205 pounds
Class: Redshirt sophomore | Projected range: Early Day 3

Where he excels: Arizona State was one of the biggest surprise teams of 2024, and Leavitt was a primary reason why, throwing for 2,885 yards and 24 touchdowns after transferring from Michigan State. Leavitt had lofty expectations heading into his second season as a starter and has thrown for 1,039 passing yards, 8 touchdown passes and 3 interceptions this season.

He is a true dual-threat player, coupling his scrambling ability and willingness to go off schedule with a whippy throwing motion that allows him to make throws even when his upper and lower halves aren’t in sync. He also has a flair for drama, which he displayed during the Sun Devils’ run to a Big 12 title in 2024 and in a comeback victory over TCU earlier this season.

Where he needs work: Leavitt often plays the game in an unconventional way, as he’s too quick to leave the pocket and puts himself in harm’s way by playing out of structure too often. He’s great at making Houdini-like plays but must understand when to get rid of the ball, as he is sacked 6.3% of the time (43rd in the FBS).

He tends to make ill-advised throws both inside and outside of the pocket. While he’s good at putting out fires, Leavitt is prone to creating a lot of them with his impatience. Arizona State’s scheme has fewer pro-style throws and emphasizes stretching defenses out horizontally, with 32.7% of Leavitt’s passing attempts this season being at or behind the line of scrimmage (19th highest in the FBS).

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Height: 6-foot-6 | Weight: 224 pounds
Class: Fifth-year senior | Projected range: Early-Mid Day 3

Where he excels: Green immediately became the Razorbacks’ starter after transferring from Boise State following the 2023 season. He has 1,398 passing yards, 12 touchdown throws and 5 interceptions this season, along with another 441 yards (most among FBS QBs) and two touchdowns on the ground. His long stride puts teams in a bind when he runs (Green has two 100-yard rushing games in 2025), and he has the arm talent to get the ball to the spots he wants with his elongated over-the-top release.

He has shown the ability to make explosive plays with his arm (eight completions of 20-plus air yards) and his legs. He will likely be a popular middle-round target for teams looking to develop a toolsy passer with upside.

Where he needs work: Green’s warts have been noticeable in recent weeks, most notably the time he takes to pass the ball. His 3.08-second average time to throw ranks 129th out of 138 quarterbacks in the FBS, and his indecisiveness in the short-to-intermediate areas is a big reason.

Green has also struggled facing pressure. The six times he has been sacked have come against true pressure, and he has completed only 38.2% of his passes in those situations.

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Height: 6-foot-2 | Weight: 200 pounds
Class: Redshirt junior | Projected range: Mid-late Day 3

Where he excels: Hoover is one of the most underrated passers in the country despite throwing for a school-record 3,949 yards last season. He’s off to another fast start, as his 1,517 passing yards are 10th most in the FBS. He also has 15 touchdown passes and four interceptions.

Hoover can match his quiet feet with an explosive throwing motion, and his quick release allows him to get the ball to the perimeter with a flick of his wrist. That release helps him squeeze throws into tight windows, and he has a high-level understanding on which type of ball speed he needs when attacking all portions of the field.

He’s capable of reading out passing concepts and getting to backside options on progressions. That has helped him convert 54.3% of his third-down passes this season, the highest rate in the FBS.

Where he needs work: Hoover’s overconfidence in his arm presents some issues, as some of the turnovers this season have occurred when he’s throwing into closing windows despite having better options. This was apparent in his two-interception performance against Arizona State.

I’d also like to see Hoover improve on climbing in the pocket instead of always standing at the apex of it. He has already taken 10 sacks this season (35th most in the FBS), and many of those sacks could be avoided by climbing vertically to make it more challenging for pass rushers.

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Height: 6-foot | Weight: 200 pounds
Class: Redshirt senior | Projected range: Mid-late Day 3

Where he excels: There might not be a better story in college football than Chambliss. After spending four seasons at Division II Ferris State, he transitioned to the SEC. Chambliss started the season backing up Austin Simmons but grabbed the starting job against Arkansas in the third game of the season. He has 1,033 passing yards, 5 touchdown throws and 1 interception while rushing for 266 yards since taking over as the starter.

Chambliss throws from a firm, balanced base and has a sudden release that allows his passes to come out in a hurry. Chambliss’ arm strength helps him attack all three levels of the field in Lane Kiffin’s offense, and his mobility puts defenses off-balance. His compact frame makes him a competitive runner who welcomes contact and can be utilized in QB run designs.

Where he needs work: There is a lot of projection for Chambliss, who has played only three Division I games. There still are moments when he attempts plays that worked in Division II but are a struggle against SEC competition. Chambliss also tends to pass up safe, easy underneath options in the hunt for a big gain. Understanding that he doesn’t have to go for explosive plays every time is the next step in his development.

Scouts have already noted how quickly Chambliss has transitioned to better competition: “He has that Russell Wilson-esque frame, but I think there’s something to him,” an NFC area scout who covers the Southeast region said.

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Height: 6-foot-2 | Weight: 210 pounds
Class: Senior | Projected range: Mid-late Day 3

Where he excels: With four starters returning along the Tigers’ offensive line and his top three wide receivers back for another season, I thought Klubnik had the best supporting cast in the country and a prime opportunity to build off a breakout 2024. That’s part of why I had him as the No. 1 pick in my way-too-early mock draft in May. Through five games, Klubnik has 1,250 passing yards, 10 touchdown throws and 4 interceptions. He’s most comfortable operating off play-action, as he has 6 touchdowns, 1 interception and an 80% completion percentage there.

Klubnik has stretches of hot and cold play throughout games, similar to a streaky 3-point shooter. His clean throwing release allows him to distribute the ball evenly to all his targets in the underneath areas the Tigers operate in. Klubnik is also a threat as a runner when forced to break the pocket.

Where he needs work: Klubnik has a lot of borderline-average traits but doesn’t have one superior trait. Outside of his Week 6 performance against North Carolina (22-of-24, 254 yards and 4 TDs), Klubnik has hesitated throwing the ball on time, too. I saw him up close against LSU in the season opener and noticed that he had timing troubles when reading concepts. His anticipation skills have been lacking, and he has been defaulting to waiting for teammates to get open before throwing.

His mechanics tend to wane when facing pressure, and his accuracy becomes scattershot. Klubnik has completed only 46.3% percent of his passes when facing true pressure. There were mixed opinions of Klubnik entering the season, but his performance during the first half has created a late-round consensus.

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Height: 6-foot-4 | Weight: 225 pounds
Class: Redshirt sophomore | Projected range: Late Day 3

Where he excels: There wasn’t a college player more touted than Manning entering the season. Despite having only 95 career passing attempts before 2025, he was handed sky-high expectations in leading the preseason No. 1 team. Though he hasn’t come close to matching that hype, there have been sprinkles of promise. With prototypical size and a powerful arm, he has 1,151 passing yards, 11 touchdown throws and 5 interceptions this season. And unlike his uncles, Peyton and Eli, he is a dangerous runner.

Steve Sarkisian has altered the Longhorns’ offense to fit Manning’s skill set, deviating from an RPO-centric pass game to one that attacks deep. Manning has had some success with that, as his 11.2 air yards per passing attempt is fourth best in the FBS. He also has 15 completions of 20-plus air yards, and six of his 11 touchdown passes have come on these deep throws.

Where he needs work: Indecisiveness and inaccuracy have frequently popped up throughout each game this season. Manning’s wonky mechanics and uncharacteristic side-arm throwing style have led to a 17.9% off-target percentage (fifth highest in the FBS). There has been a surprising deterioration of his mechanics from what we saw in 2024, and that has forced receivers into far more difficult catches than necessary.

He has been extremely slow in getting rid of the ball, too, as his average time to throw of 3.22 seconds is the second slowest in the FBS. Manning must learn how to release the ball on time. Perhaps that will come with more experience, especially against upper-level competition. But the 2027, or even 2028, draft is a more realistic NFL entry point for Manning, and the hardships he has faced thus far this season have reinforced that.

Are you a fan of the old reliable or new weirdness? Do you go for a good, old-fashioned corny dog at the State Fair of Texas or do you seek out the new oddity, like this year’s Ox’cellent Cornbread Sliders or Deep Fried Carbonara?

Regardless of your taste, Week 7 of the college football season has you covered. If you like a nice blue-blood helmet game, the Red River Rivalry pits the preseason No. 1 team (Texas) against the current No. 6 (Oklahoma). Michigan heads to USC for a Rose Bowl-adjacent battle. Georgia plays Auburn! Florida plays Texas A&M! Plenty of big-name games everywhere you look!

The biggest game of the week, however, is Indiana at Oregon. Weird! Alabama at Missouri might be No. 2, and it’s possible that no game has more direct College Football Playoff implications than USF’s Friday evening visit to North Texas. An ambitious college football geek should head up to Denton before Red River!

Week 7 gives us both what we think we need and what we really, really want instead. Something for everyone. Here’s everything you need to know about another loaded weekend.

All times are Eastern; games are Saturday unless otherwise noted.

Fun new dishes

Helmet games are great. It’s nice heading into a given season with certain landmarks like OU-Texas that you know will draw attention. But there’s a buzz that comes with games of surprising gravitas, and three conferences will give us one of those this week. With assistance from the new food items at this year’s State Fair of Texas, let’s lean into all three.

The Lobster Three Ways of the Week (surprisingly fancy!)

No. 7 Indiana at No. 3 Oregon (3:30 p.m., CBS)

Oregon and Dan Lanning have grown accustomed to this “big game” thing. This will be the eighth time the fourth-year head coach has led the Ducks into a top-10 vs. top-10 battle. They’re 4-3 in such games so far, with all the losses to eventual CFP finalists. Indiana, meanwhile, has played four such games ever. Half of them happened last season, and the next one the Hoosiers win will be the first. In terms of known gravitas, we know who has the advantage.

Granted, Oregon’s win at Penn State two weeks ago looks a little different after the Nittany Lions’ loss at winless UCLA, but it seemed to give us a pretty accurate impression of the Ducks: They’re super efficient with quarterback and current No. 2 Heisman betting favorite Dante Moore leading the show on offense, but they’re not incredibly explosive. The defense combines three-and-outs — they’ve forced them on 50.9% of possessions, third in the FBS — with elite big-play prevention. I mean, of course this is an awesome team: It has won 19 of 20 games!

The spotlight, then, is on Indiana. Can the Hoosiers perform better than they did at Ohio State (38-15 loss) or Notre Dame (27-17) last year? They haven’t really given us any reason to doubt them in 2025: They’re third in SP+; they’re first in success rate* on offense and second on defense; and they beat a current top-20 team (otherwise-unbeaten No. 17 Illinois) by 53 points three weeks ago.

(* Success rate: how frequently an offense is gaining 50% of necessary yardage on first down, 70% on second down, and 100% on third and fourth downs.)

The offense generates most of the headlines, with quarterback and No. 7 Heisman betting favorite Fernando Mendoza throwing to Elijah Sarratt and Omar Cooper Jr. and handing off to Roman Hemby and Kaelon Black. The Hoosiers have a lot of ways to stay on schedule, and they’ve done it better than anyone else in the sport thus far.

Aside from the occasional big-gainer to Cooper, explosiveness isn’t necessarily a strength here, and the two teams that kept the big plays tamped down — Old Dominion and Iowa — held them to 23.5 points per game and 5.6 yards per play.

The Hoosiers’ defense is the star of the show, though. Illinois scored 10 points at 3.6 yards per play against Indiana but has averaged 42.4 points and 7.0 yards per play against everyone else. Everywhere you look, Indiana has multiple stars, with ends Kellan Wyatt, Mikail Kamara and Stephen Daley; linebackers Isaiah Jones and Rolijah Hardy; and safeties Louis Moore and Amare Ferrell. Plus star corner D’Angelo Ponds is expected to play after missing time with injury.

The Big Stage Game is the only test Indiana didn’t pass last year, but the Hoosiers get another chance to show out Saturday. We know Oregon will.

Current line: Ducks -7.5 | SP+ projection: Ducks by 6.2 | FPI projection: Ducks by 5.2

The Meat Lovers Crunch Wrap Calzone of the Week (might be new and different, might taste like a typical calzone)
No. 8 Alabama at No. 14 Missouri (noon, ABC)

On the first Monday night of the 1975 season, Missouri went down to Birmingham and pummeled No. 2 Alabama, 20-7. Bama had won 22 straight regular-season games, but led by tailback Tony Galbreath, the Tigers rushed for 206 yards to Bama’s 31 and made a 20-0 halftime lead hold up with surprising ease. “They ran up and down the field as though they were playing a barber’s college,” Alabama coach Bear Bryant said. “They ate us on the line of scrimmage.”

The win assured Mizzou of something rare: a series lead on the Tide. The Tigers were 2-1 all time against Bama when they joined the SEC in 2012. They’re now 2-6. In five meetings as SEC mates, Bama has swept by an average score of 39-10. But Saturday will be the Tigers’ best shot at a win in 50 years.

Alabama has rebounded from a dismal Week 1 loss to Florida State, winning four straight and beating ranked opponents in the last two weeks. Quarterback Ty Simpson leads my Heisman horse race, and an inefficient run game has improved since Jam Miller‘s return from injury. But running isn’t how you beat the Mizzou defense. In two games against power-conference opponents (Kansas and South Carolina), the Tigers have allowed opposing running backs to average just 1.3 yards per carry, but they also gave up 10 completions of at least 20 yards. The Tigers have the best pass rush the Tide have faced, but if they can’t pressure Simpson, the dynamite receiver trio of Germie Bernard, Ryan Williams and Isaiah Horton (combined: 192.8 yards per game, 15.1 per catch) will do damage.

A Missouri win Saturday might end up looking a lot like the 1975 game, with the Tigers controlling the ground game (and the YAC battle) on offense and defense. So far, tackling Mizzou’s Ahmad Hardy has been just about the hardest task in college football. Hardy leads the nation with 730 rushing yards, and 460 of those have come after contact.

Hardy has had more carries of more than 25 yards (five) than carries with lost yardage (four), and 212-pound backup Jamal Roberts averages even more yards per carry (7.3) than Hardy (7.1).

Mizzou boasts plenty of physicality, but aside from occasional deep shots to receiver Marquis Johnson, this offense is based far more around efficiency than explosiveness. In the last couple of Bama games, however, it’s been chunk plays or nothing against the efficient Tide. Bama records almost no tackles for loss or sacks, but sacks are the primary way of stopping Missouri: The Tigers rank 95th in sack rate allowed. When upright, Beau Pribula completes 76% of his passes, keeps the chains moving and forces teams to endure further doses of Hardy and Roberts.

Current line: Bama -3.5 | SP+ projection: Mizzou by 1.6 | FPI projection: Bama by 3.4

The Pop Rocks Margarita of the Week (let’s get silly and loud)
No. 24 USF at North Texas (Friday, 7:30 p.m., ESPN2)

The odds are in the American Conference’s favor at the moment. The Allstate Playoff Predictor currently gives six teams from the Group of 5 a 7% or greater chance of reaching the CFP, and four of those teams — Memphis (39.5%), North Texas (14.5%), USF (10.4%) and Tulane (7.7%) — are from the American. Spectacularly explosive Old Dominion (20.1%) and unbeaten UNLV (8.6%) could still take the mantle, but for now it’s the American’s show. And its No. 2 and No. 3 contenders face off Friday night before the first sellout crowd ever at DATCU Stadium.

USF has the résumé mid-majors dream of. After walloping last year’s G5 representative, Boise State, in Week 1, the Bulls took down Florida the next week. They couldn’t offer much resistance against Miami, but they’ve beaten two overwhelmed opponents by a combined 117-40 since. And their big-play capabilities are ridiculous, especially those of receivers Chas Nimrod and Keshaun Singleton (combined: 661 yards at 20.0 per catch). There’s a major all-or-nothing component to this offense — it’s 95th in success rate but fifth in yards per successful play — but the “all”s are spectacular. Defensively, it’s turnovers or bust: The Bulls have forced 11 of them. They can create some negative run plays, too, but their statistical profile is otherwise pretty underwhelming.

North Texas has its best defense in quite a while — potentially faint praise considering the Mean Green haven’t ranked higher than 105th in defensive SP+ since 2018 — but the offense is the show. It ranks ninth in points per drive with heavy efficiency, almost no turnovers (three in five games) and excellent red zone execution (10th in red zone TD rate). Backs Makenzie McGill II and Caleb Hawkins average 6.0 yards per carry over 21 carries per game, and quarterback Drew Mestemaker is completing 68% of his passes with no picks and almost no sacks. Even when they’re behind schedule, they’re not really behind schedule because Mestemaker catches them up. North Texas has scored at least 33 points in every game and has allowed more than 30 just once. That’s a pretty good combination, though USF is comfortably the best team the Mean Green have played to date.

Current line: UNT -1.5 | SP+ projection: UNT by 6.6 | FPI projection: UNT by 0.8

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Reliable old standbys

The biggest games of the week might be a little strange and experimental, but there are plenty of comforting matchups to assure that you keep your bearings. I mean, does college football get any more reliable than OU vs. Texas, Georgia vs. Auburn or Ohio State vs. a solid-but-probably-not-good-enough Big Ten foe?

The Corny Dog of the Week (safe, reliable state fair fare)
No. 6 Oklahoma vs. Texas (3:30 p.m., ABC)

Red River is both one of the most even and one of the most momentum-based rivalries you’ll see. For Texas to win for the third time in four years, the Longhorns will have to endure a strange matchup of excellent defenses and incomplete offenses.

Points per drive
Texas: 63rd on offense, fifth on defense
Oklahoma: 48th on offense, second on defense

OU quarterback John Mateer is racing to return from recent hand surgery; he was listed as probable on this week’s initial injury report, which caused the betting line to move swiftly toward the Sooners. Backup Michael Hawkins Jr. was fine against an admittedly almost Division II-worthy Kent State defense last week, but even with Mateer healthy, OU has gone unbeaten because of its defense.

Texas’ Arch Manning has yet to play well against an SP+ top-100 defense, which is pretty scary considering OU’s currently ranks second. Manning has flashed moments of excellence with his legs, but he took six sacks against Florida last week, and his numbers when pressured are pretty dismal.

Florida’s pass rush ranks 75th in sack rate; Oklahoma’s ranks first. We can talk about the Sooners’ disappointing run game and whether either Mateer or Hawkins can find enough success against a strong Texas defense. But until Texas proves it can actually keep pressure off Manning — or Manning proves he can perform well under duress — I’m not sure anything else matters.

Current line: OU -1.5 (flipped from Texas -2.5 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: OU by 7.6 | FPI projection: Texas by 2.8

The Fried Mac ‘n’ Cheese Bites of the Week (intriguing at first, predictable in the end)
No. 1 Ohio State at No. 17 Illinois (noon, Fox)

Ohio State’s mission is to win, not to entertain. The Buckeyes have won their last three games by an average of 34-6, and their defense, first in SP+ last season, has grown even more suffocating. They rank first in points allowed per drive, and the next red zone touchdown they allow will be the first all year.

Illinois’ offense is hot, at least. Since their humiliation against Indiana, the Illini have responded with near perfection: Luke Altmyer has completed 81% of his passes for 718 yards in two games, with wideouts Hank Beatty and Collin Dixon doing loads of damage. Granted, Washington ranked first nationally in points per drive before playing Ohio State and managed just six points. But if Illinois can do just enough damage that OSU quarterback Julian Sayin has to force the issue a bit, we could learn something useful about the Buckeyes.

Ohio State’s run game isn’t nearly as dangerous as usual, but Sayin is completing 80% of his passes and never has to take any risks. Knowing the other team will never score, the Buckeyes can just wait opponents out, and eventually receivers Jeremiah Smith and/or Carnell Tate will break through and ice the game.

Current line: OSU -14.5 | SP+ projection: OSU by 13.8 | FPI projection: OSU by 10.7

The Flamin’ Hot Cheetos Nachos of the Week (relatively predictable but could upset your stomach)
No. 10 Georgia at Auburn (7:30 p.m., ABC)

It’s danger time on the Plains. Auburn has lost 13 of 15 to Georgia and heads into this one having lost two in a row overall. The Tigers were competitive at both Oklahoma and Texas A&M because of strong defense but failed to even slightly protect Jackson Arnold (or persuade him to get the damn ball out of his hands faster). He was sacked 14 times in the two games, and Auburn scored a total of 27 points. Strangely, Georgia might offer a reprieve: The Dawgs rank just 115th in sack rate and 89th in yards allowed per dropback. They dominate against the run, but this might be Kirby Smart’s worst pass defense as a head coach or defensive coordinator.

Georgia’s offense moves efficiently but doesn’t make loads of big plays. The run game has been decent, but the Dawgs could be without both starting tackles — Monroe Freeling (ankle) and Micah Morris (back) are listed as questionable. Arnold might simply be broken, but it wouldn’t take too many decent pass plays to make this one uncomfortable for a Georgia team that really doesn’t want to suffer Loss No. 2 this early.

Current line: UGA -3.5 | SP+ projection: UGA by 4.6 | FPI projection: UGA by 3.5

The Chopped Brisket Sandwich of the Week (beefy but lacking pizzazz)
Florida at No. 5 Texas A&M (7 p.m., ESPN)

Two weeks ago, the defensive coach in Mike Elko emerged. Fresh from a 41-40 track-meet win at Notre Dame, his Aggies established a far more conservative streak.

First three A&M games: 71.0 total points per game, 7.0 yards per play, 5.2 yards allowed per play

Last two games: 33.0 total points per game, 6.1 yards per play, 3.7 yards allowed per play

In their first three games, A&M ran the ball just 39% of the time. In wins over Auburn and Mississippi State, that surged to 63%. The Aggies took more time between plays too. On both offense and defense, they sacrificed aggression for control. Granted, this nearly backfired when they dominated Auburn but couldn’t pull away. But last week’s 31-9 pummeling of Mississippi State was their best overall performance of the season.

Now comes a Florida team that also played its best game a week ago. The Gators’ defense pummeled Arch Manning early and often, and quarterback DJ Lagway played by far his most relaxed and effective game of 2025. The Gators still didn’t run the ball that well, and that’s been the easier way to move against A&M, but if this is the new Florida, Texas might not be the only team it upsets.

Current line: A&M -7.5 | SP+ projection: A&M by 10.0 | FPI projection: A&M by 6.7

The Red Velvet Cheesecake on a Stick of the Week (comforting and familiar, albeit in a confusing vessel)
No. 15 Michigan at USC (7:30 p.m., NBC)

Michigan and USC have played 11 times, and nine were in the greater Los Angeles area. Of course, eight of those were at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena; for just the second time, they’ll meet in USC’s L.A. Coliseum home.

After a bye week following the loss at Illinois, USC will define its season one way or the other playing Michigan and Notre Dame back-to-back. The Trojans’ offense still ranks first nationally in points per drive and yards per play, but the defense has slipped to 89th in rushing success rate allowed. You know what Michigan will do constantly if you can’t stop it? Run the ball. Justice Haynes has five 100-yard games in five tries.

Current line: USC -2.5 | SP+ projection: USC by 3.0 | FPI projection: USC by 4.8

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This week in the Big 12

Texas Tech’s recent levels of dominance could be taking some of the mystery out of the Big 12 title race — per SP+, the Red Raiders currently have a 38% title shot, and no one else is above 13%. But it’s still early. Four Big 12 teams are 2-0 in conference play, with another seven at 2-1 or 1-1. From those 11 teams, we get three head-to-head matchups Saturday evening.

Kansas at No. 9 Texas Tech (7:30 p.m., Fox)

Have we finally found a Texas Tech weakness? It took a few games. Red zone offense was a major issue against Houston last week — the Red Raiders scored TDs on just two of eight red zone trips, and they’re now 103rd in red zone touchdown rate for the season. That can cost you a game somewhere at some point, at least if you’re making fewer than eight trips.

Tech otherwise remains a juggernaut — top 10 in offensive and defensive success rate and top 15 on third downs on both sides of the ball with bigger big plays than its opponents. That doesn’t leave teams with many avenues for an upset. But KU’s defense is solid in the red zone, and quarterback Jalon Daniels escapes pressure beautifully. If he can make plays while Tech is kicking field goals, we could have a game.

Current line: Tech -14.5 | SP+ projection: Tech by 15.4 | FPI projection: Tech by 7.0

No. 18 BYU at Arizona (8 p.m., ESPN2)

Arizona’s offense has been pretty mediocre this season, but the Wildcats are 4-1 because they’ve resurrected the Desert Swarm defense. They rank fourth in yards allowed per play, combining loads of negative run plays with loads of incompletions and interceptions. BYU freshman quarterback Bear Bachmeier has passed every test thus far, but if he’s ever going to look like a freshman, it will come against a defense like this.

Of course, BYU’s defense is equally good at forcing mistakes — the Cougars are 15th in stuff rate and third in interception rate — and while BYU has given up an increasing number of points in each game, Arizona has played only one top-50 defense, per SP+, and scored only 14 points against Iowa State.

Current line: BYU -1.5 | SP+ projection: BYU by 3.5 | FPI projection: BYU by 5.1

No. 21 Arizona State at Utah (10:15 p.m., ESPN)

Arizona State hasn’t lost to a Big 12 team in nearly a full calendar year, but the Sun Devils are almost an afterthought in the title race, because of both Texas Tech’s hot start and their own cold start. They’ve rebounded since a loss to Mississippi State, but with Utah and Tech in the next two weeks, they need to be close to a finished product.

ASU’s defense has evolved into a sharp, bend-don’t-break unit, pouncing on mistakes and preventing big plays, but Utah almost has a bend-don’t-break offense with heavy efficiency and almost no big plays. How does that play out? And with quarterback Sam Leavitt listed as doubtful to play, can ASU establish enough of a rhythm in the run game, where Utah has suffered some glitches this year?

Current line: Utah -5.5 | SP+ projection: Utah by 10.8 | FPI projection: Utah by 5.3

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Week 7 chaos superfecta

We’re once again using this space to will chaos into existence, looking at four carefully curated games with pretty big point spreads and mashing them together into a much more upset-friendly number.

I feel as if we should claim an honorary victory for last week — we aimed to take down a Big Ten favorite and got one with the UCLA-Penn State game that I wasn’t nearly brave enough to add — but technically we failed and fell to 3-for-6 for the season. But the two-week losing streak ends here. SP+ says there’s only a 46% chance that No. 9 Texas Tech (83% win probability against Kansas), No. 11 LSU (78% against South Carolina), No. 12 Tennessee (80% against Arkansas) and No. 16 Notre Dame (89% against NC State) all win. Someone important is going down.

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Week 7 playlist

Here are some more games you should pay attention to if you want to get the absolute most out of the weekend, from information and entertainment perspectives.

Friday evening

Rutgers at Washington (9 p.m., FS1). We’re putting this ridiculous long-distance matchup on a Friday night for the second straight year, but last year’s game was pretty awesome, and this year’s could be a track meet. Rutgers ranks 17th in points per drive but 99th in points allowed per drive; Washington ranks fourth and 81st, respectively. We love points on a Friday night.

Current line: UW -10.5 | SP+ projection: UW by 12.0 | FPI projection: UW by 7.5

Early Saturday

Pitt at No. 25 Florida State (noon, ESPN). FSU set the bar a little too high with the early win over Bama, but the Noles still have a 1-in-3 chance of finishing 9-3 or better, per SP+, so there’s still plenty to shoot for. Pitt, meanwhile, looked spectacular last week after handing the reins to true freshman quarterback Mason Heintschel. A win in Tallahassee would make the Panthers sleeper ACC contenders.

Current line: FSU -9.5 | SP+ projection: FSU by 3.8 | FPI projection: FSU by 8.1

UCF at Cincinnati (noon, FS1). Cincinnati has won four in a row since its season-opening loss to Nebraska, and the Bearcats are projected favorites in their next three. UCF produces some of the biggest big plays in the country, however, which makes it a serious candidate to pull a random upset at some point.

Current line: Cincy -10.5 | SP+ projection: Cincy by 9.2 | FPI projection: Cincy by 5.3

Louisiana at James Madison (noon, ESPN2). We’re gearing up for eight words I never thought I’d have a reason to type: an Old Dominion-James Madison game with playoff implications. That’s a week away, but first JMU’s dynamite defense has to deal with backs Bill Davis and Zylan Perry and an excellent Louisiana run game.

Current line: JMU -17.5 | SP+ projection: JMU by 17.7 | FPI projection: JMU by 12.0

Washington State at No. 4 Ole Miss (12:45 p.m., SECN). OK, this probably isn’t one you’ll need to focus on for very long. But any excuse to watch Ole Miss QB Trinidad Chambliss in action is a good one. Wazzu defensive end Isaac Terrell is worth the price of admission too.

Current line: Rebels -31.5 | SP+ projection: Rebels by 34.3 | FPI projection: Rebels by 34.7

Saturday afternoon

Arkansas at No. 12 Tennessee (4:15 p.m., SECN). The (interim) Bobby Petrino era begins again at Arkansas, and the Hogs will take their ultra-explosive offense to Knoxville to face a Tennessee team that has overachieved against offensive projections but underachieved against defensive projections in every game. I’ll be disappointed if this game produces under 65 points.

Current line: Vols -11.5 | SP+ projection: Vols by 13.5 | FPI projection: Vols by 10.7

TCU at Kansas State (3:30 p.m., Fox). It’s danger time for Kansas State. The Wildcats have lost four games by a combined 13 points; they’re clearly competitive and solid, but they’re projected underdogs in their next three games. Without an immediate rebound, a frustrating season could become something far worse. TCU, meanwhile, remains in the Big 12 hunt but can’t afford a slipup after the Week 5 loss at Arizona State.

Current line: TCU -1.5 | SP+ projection: TCU by 8.2 | FPI projection: TCU by 1.8

No. 22 Iowa State at Colorado (3:30 p.m., ESPN). This is a spectacularly backhanded compliment, but Colorado is a strong 2-4. The Buffaloes have been competitive in three of four losses and make more big plays than their opponents. Iowa State wins with efficiency but got gouged by Cincinnati’s big-play offense last week. This is probably a get-right game for the Cyclones, but there’s reason for paranoia.

Current line: ISU -2.5 (down from -4.5) | SP+ projection: ISU by 5.3 | FPI projection: ISU by 3.3

NC State at No. 16 Notre Dame (3:30 p.m., Peacock). Notre Dame has shifted into gear, overachieving against SP+ projections by 19.9 points per game during a three-game winning streak. The Irish can’t let up, but NC State can shift into Bully Mode and make life really physical and frustrating thanks to RB Hollywood Smothers and an aggressive run defense.

Current line: Irish -23.5 | SP+ projection: Irish by 19.5 | FPI projection: Irish by 19.5

Nebraska at Maryland (3:30 p.m., BTN). Two 4-1 teams with very different vibes: Maryland was up 20-0 on Washington last week but collapsed and watched its unbeaten record disappear, while Nebraska handled its business against Michigan State and ranks in the top 25 in points scored and points allowed per drive. Can the Terps pull off an immediate rebound, or will NU’s push for a first 10-win season in 13 years continue?

Current line: NU -6.5 | SP+ projection: NU by 3.0 | FPI projection: NU by 4.1

Air Force at UNLV (3:30 p.m., CBSSN). Playing at Wyoming on a bed of hailstones sounds absolutely miserable, but UNLV survived the experience with relative ease, winning by 14. Now comes a visit from Air Force and new star quarterback Liam Szarka. The Falcons’ awful defense will probably prevent this from going down to the wire, but these two offenses are ridiculously fun to watch.

Current line: UNLV -7.5 | SP+ projection: UNLV by 6.7 | FPI projection: UNLV by 12.6

Navy at Temple (4 p.m., ESPN2). Temple hasn’t won more than three games in a season since 2019, but veteran head coach KC Keeler has the Owls at 3-2 and dreaming of a return to the postseason. Backs Jay Ducker and Hunter Smith could give unbeaten Navy fits, though it’s fair to assume Navy quarterback Blake Horvath and dual-threat WR Eli Heidenreich (413 receiving yards, 232 rushing yards) will give the Owls’ defense even more problems.

Current line: Navy -9.5 | SP+ projection: Navy by 13.2 | FPI projection: Navy by 2.5

Virginia Tech at No. 13 Georgia Tech (3:30 p.m., ACCN). Following the Week 3 upset of Clemson, Georgia Tech underachieved against SP+ projections twice in a row. After a bye-week refresh, it hosts an interim-coached Virginia Tech team that has started to run the ball and rush the passer well but will probably suffer too many glitches for an upset bid.

Current line: GT -14.5 | SP+ projection: GT by 16.8 | FPI projection: GT by 9.4

Northwestern at Penn State (3:30 p.m., FS1). After the worst and most unexpected loss of the James Franklin era, Penn State tries to get right against Northwestern before a rugged three-game stretch — at Iowa, at Ohio State, Indiana at home — either salvages or further wrecks the season.

Current line: PSU -21.5 | SP+ projection: PSU by 21.2 | FPI projection: PSU by 16.9

Saturday evening

South Carolina at No. 11 LSU (7:45 p.m., SECN). Maybe the biggest now-or-never game of a week full of them. South Carolina fell off course with losses to Vanderbilt and Missouri and is a projected underdog in the next five games; the Gamecocks still have LaNorris Sellers and Dylan Stewart, though, and they will remain major upset threats. LSU, meanwhile, got a bye week after losing to Ole Miss to fix whatever’s wrong with the offense; with trips to Vanderbilt, Alabama and Oklahoma remaining, the Tigers can’t afford a home upset.

Current line: LSU -9.5 | SP+ projection: LSU by 12.1 | FPI projection: LSU by 6.3

Iowa at Wisconsin (7 p.m., FS1). Iowa is eight points from an unbeaten record but is 3-2 instead. That’s more than Wisconsin can say, though. The Badgers showed some brief life after handing the QB reins to Southern Illinois transfer Hunter Simmons last week, but they still lost to Michigan by two touchdowns and have been outscored by 55 points against three power-conference opponents.

Current line: Iowa -3.5 | SP+ projection: Iowa by 6.0 | FPI projection: Iowa by 3.1

Late Saturday

New Mexico at Boise State (9:45 p.m., FS1). Jason Eck and his super-underdog Lobos couldn’t get the job done at San José State last week, and their run defense is shaky enough that Boise State should be able to feast on the ground. UNM is crafty, however, avoiding negative plays and going for it constantly on fourth downs. If BSU is looking ahead to next week’s UNLV game, the Lobos could strike.

Current line: BSU -16.5 | SP+ projection: BSU by 13.3 | FPI projection: BSU by 9.4

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Smaller-school showcase

Let’s once again save a shoutout for the glorious lower levels of the sport. Here are three games you should track.

Division III: No. 7 Wisconsin-Platteville at No. 17 Wisconsin-River Falls (2 p.m., local streaming). Another trip to the Wisconsin Intercollegiate Athletic Conference? You’re damn right! Conference play began last week with two awesome ranked-versus-ranked battles, and we get another one with quarterback Nathan Uselding and Platteville heading to River Falls. The host Falcons dropped a heartbreaker in Oshkosh last week, and it’s hard to come back from starting 0-2 when you have a seven-game conference schedule.

SP+ projection: UWP by 6.4.

FCS: Alabama State at No. 14 Jackson State (3:30 p.m., ESPNU). We could have a pretty dynamite Celebration Bowl this year, with the MEAC’s NC Central and the SWAC’s Jackson State and Alabama State all 31st or better in FCS SP+. JSU and ASU meet in Jackson on Saturday. A dynamite run game led by Ahmad Miller and Travis Terrell Jr. (combined: 150 rushing yards per game, 8.1 per carry) could give JSU a slight edge, but ASU QB Andrew Body is an impressive dual threat.

SP+ projection: JSU by 7.6.

FCS: No. 9 Southern Illinois at No. 1 North Dakota State (3:30 p.m., ESPN+). On one hand, this is a top-10 matchup, and those are always worth tracking. On the other hand, NDSU has been head and shoulders above everyone else in the FCS this season — shocking, right? — and I’m not sure even a top-10 team can keep up in Fargo. SIU quarterback DJ Williams is another super-fun dual threat, though.

SP+ projection: NDSU by 20.3.