Wild-card series: Day 1 takeaways and analysis, keys to Game 2
It. Is. On. Eight teams were in action as the first day of the 2023 MLB playoffs began with the best-of-three wild-card round.
The Game 1 action in the American League ended with the visiting Texas Rangers defeating the Tampa Bay Rays and the Minnesota Twins ending their 18-game postseason losing streak at home with a win over the Toronto Blue Jays. The National League took center stage in the evening, with the Arizona Diamondbacks upsetting the Milwaukee Brewers and the Philadelphia Phillies beating the Miami Marlins.
We’ve got you covered with takeaways, live updates and analysis from the Day 1 games, as well as one thing to know for each Game 2.
Key links: Everything you need to know | Bracket | Picks | Watch on ESPN, ABC
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Takeaways | Live updates
Takeaways
Philadelphia Phillies 4, Miami Marlins 1: On paper, the Marlins-Phillies was the biggest mismatch of the four wild-card series and that’s how Game 1 played out, with Zack Wheeler taking a shutout into the seventh and the Phillies knocking around Jesus Luzardo (five of their eight hits off him in his four innings of work were 104 mph or higher). It wasn’t quite an easy win for the Phillies, however, as the Marlins scratched across a run in the seventh thanks to a couple of infield singles and had the go-ahead run at the plate. Jose Alvarado came on and threw a from-another-planet 94-mph cutter to Yuli Gurriel to strike him out and end that threat. The Marlins had the tying run at the plate in the eighth but Jeff Hoffman came on and induced Jorge Soler to ground out. If Philadelphia’s bullpen keeps this up — and it’s deeper and better than last year’s pen — the Phillies have a chance to do more than just beat the Marlins. — David Schoenfield
One thing to know for Game 2: Last postseason, the Phillies rode the one-two punch of Wheeler and Aaron Nola deep into October. Wheeler did his part in Game 1 on Tuesday night, but Nola hasn’t been the same pitcher as he was a year ago, with a regular-season ERA rising to 4.46 in 2023 from 3.25 last season. Whether Nola can find that playoff touch again will play a big part in determining how far the Phillies go this month.
Arizona Diamondbacks 6, Milwaukee Brewers 3: For all the pre-series talk about Arizona’s speed, the Diamondbacks flashed the real winning postseason formula by mashing three homers over two innings off Milwaukee ace Corbin Burnes. The spree began with a 440-foot bomb by probable NL Rookie of the Year Corbin Carroll, who stole 59 bases during the season but has plenty of muscle, too.
For the Brewers, the lament of Game 1 is one of missed opportunities. Twice they loaded the bases without scoring, including with no outs in the fifth. After Brice Turang struck out, Tyrone Taylor lashed what looked like a go-ahead single to left but Evan Longoria, who turns 38 on Saturday and was no sure bet to start this game, made a lunging, leaping, tumbling snag which he turned into a threat-killing double play. Before the game, Longoria said, “A lot of these games are going to come down to one or two big moments. We have to be ready and be prepared for those.” He was ready and Arizona is up 1-0 with Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly lined up the next two days.
If the Brewers don’t win some of those big moments in Game 2, where they’ll have Freddy Peralta take the mound, they might never see Kelly. — Bradford Doolittle
One thing to know for Game 2: Taking the opener on the road is always nice, but in the D-backs’ case, winning Game 1 sets them up especially well for a potential series upset. Now Arizona hands the ball to ace Gallen in Game 2, with Kelly waiting, if needed, in Game 3, against a Brewers team that is without injured Brandon Woodruff.
Minnesota Twins 3, Toronto Blue Jays 1: The streak is over! The streak is over! This is not an exaggeration: The Twins’ 18-game postseason losing streak, dating back to 2004, was an unfathomable stretch of misery. Now that it’s ended and that burden eliminated, maybe the Twins can surprise in a wide-open AL bracket. Especially if Royce Lewis keeps hitting like this. The rookie was Minnesota’s best hitter but hadn’t played since Sept. 19 because of a hamstring injury. All he did was hit two home runs and drive in three runs against tough Kevin Gausman. Gausman challenged him with a 3-2 four-seamer in the first inning rather than his best pitch, a splitter, and Lewis crushed it for a two-run home run — just like he crushed four-seamers in the regular season. Feels like a bad pitch selection there from Gausman. Indeed, with Sonny Gray going in Game 2 against a Toronto lineup that just doesn’t scare you (Cavan Biggio hitting fifth?), the Twins might actually win their first postseason series since the 2002 ALDS. — Schoenfield
One thing to know for Game 2: Minnesota was rocking after the Twins finally ended their postseason losing streak in Game 1. Now they’ll try to clinch a spot in the ALDS against a familiar face in Game 2. Toronto starter Jose Berrios spent the first six years of his career in Minnesota before being dealt to the Blue Jays at the 2021 trade deadline. Berrios faces a tough task in his return to Target Field, with All-Star Gray set to take the mound for the Twins.
Texas Rangers 4, Tampa Bay Rays 0: The Max Scherzer acquisition got all the headlines at the trade deadline, but it’s a good thing Rangers general manager Chris Young traded for a second starting pitcher. Jordan Montgomery had a dominating performance against a high-powered Tampa Bay offense, tossing seven scoreless innings in the Rangers’ 4-0 victory. He has now allowed two runs in 34 innings in his past five starts and is looking like a postseason ace — even if an unusual one, since he’s not a big strikeout pitcher.
The other impressive performance: Rookie left fielder Evan Carter went 2-for-2 with two doubles and two walks (although Yandy Diaz should have made the play on one of the doubles). Carter is just 21 and didn’t make his MLB debut until Sept. 8, but he already looks like a star at the plate — he had a 1.058 OPS in his 23 regular-season games. Oh, and he hits ninth in the Rangers’ lineup. Yes, it’s a very good lineup.
The Rays played an awful game with four errors. Kevin Cash questionably left Tyler Glasnow in the game to start the sixth inning and Glasnow walked the first two batters, allowing the Rangers to put the game away with two more runs. — Schoenfield
One thing to know for Game 2: After winning 99 games in the regular season, the Rays will be putting their fate in the hands of Zach Eflin — who came to Tampa Bay as the highest-paid free agent signing in franchise history last offseason. Eflin was at his best at the Trop this year, going 11-4 with a 3.30 ERA and 10.4 strikeouts per nine innings, compared to 5-4 with a 3.77 ERA and 8.0 K/9 on the road.
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Who are MLB’s teams to beat this October — and who could take them down? Execs, insiders weigh in
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Jesse Rogers
The MLB playoffs are just around the corner and shaping up to be a wide-open affair. For the second consecutive season, there is not a single team on pace to win 100 or more games. That means there is plenty of parity across the majors, which is bound to carry over to October.
With that in mind, we asked 19 baseball players, executives and scouts: Who is the team to beat in the National League? And who is the team to beat in the American League?
There was little uniformity to their answers, though most agreed on one thing: a sleeper team that people in both leagues agreed could make a run in October. Here’s how those in the game view the upcoming postseason.
The NL’s team to beat is …
(Phillies, 5; Dodgers, 4; Padres, 2; Mets, 1)
Voting was as tight as you might imagine, considering the Brewers are mixed in with the defending champion Dodgers and high-priced Phillies. Those teams dominated our poll, leaving few votes for anyone else.
All three teams can slug their way to the World Series, but the Dodgers have a distinct advantage in the power game, outhomering both Philadelphia and Milwaukee by a wide margin this regular season. However, Philly employs easily the best closer of the three — a crucial element that could help finish off those tight October games.
Still, it was the Brewers who won our poll because they’ve played at such a high level in all areas while also possessing a deep and healthy starting staff.
Why the Brewers
NL player: “They seem like a team that has a really solid plan and cohesive approach. And they seem like they’re on the same page. I just like how they play. And they’ve done it all year; why can’t they keep it going?”
NL scout: “They still have to figure out the back end of their pen, but in a short series, they have the luxury of sending one of their good starters to the bullpen. And they might just run into enough home runs to keep pace in October.”
NL exec: “Getting the bye will be huge for them. They’ve been knocked out in those short series several times; this will let them breathe a bit. Plus, their starting staff is so good. If I’m Milwaukee, I want the longer series.”
Biggest threats to Brewers
NL player: “It’s simple for me. They still have good pitching, and they’ve been there before. Playoffs are about home runs, and they can hit them.”
NL player: “Their lineup is a little top-heavy, but they have enough at the bottom that can do the job. If those guys show up, then that lineup is really good. Their pen is incredible with [Jhoan] Duran.”
NL exec: “It’s their last hurrah, right? They have older players, some of whom will be free agents at the end of the season. I just can’t see [Bryce] Harper going his career without a ring, and this is their best chance, even without [Zack] Wheeler.”
NL player: “When we played them, they didn’t have a good series, but they seem to turn it on when they need to. That’s the sign of a champion. I think their offense will have a big October and lead them like it did last year.”
NL exec: “Talent will win out, and they have the potential for healthiest pitching staff all year in October.”
If not Milwaukee, Philadelphia or Los Angeles, then who?
Truth be told, these insiders responded before the latest Mets free fall became so dramatic — New York was on an eight-game losing streak that ended with an extra-innings win over Texas on Sunday. But, hey, anyone can get hot at the right time, right? The Mets proved that last year. But they have to prove they can even get into the October party before they can think about making a deep run.
The Padres are hard to figure out, but that doesn’t make them less dangerous than any other contender. Some days, their offense goes into hibernation, but they can shut anyone down in the late innings. Their bullpen is that good and could take them far despite the loss of Jason Adam.
NL player: “I like San Diego. They’re hungry. They made all the right deadline moves. And they have the experience of getting close but not going all the way.”
NL exec: “There’s a lot to like about San Diego, but they can still be pitched to even with their deadline additions. It’s like they disappear sometimes. If they survive a wild-card round and get some home games, Petco [Park]’s energy could wake them up. Still a great bullpen.”
NL player: “The Mets are really good. I know they’ve struggled, but I’m banking on them getting hot like they did last postseason. Sometimes you get your worst baseball behind you, then find your groove. I like the Mets to do that.”
NL scout: “Their lineup 1-9 has to carry them. I’m not sure how they’ll piece it together on the mound, but sometimes you find rookie magic in an arm or two. If two of [Nolan] McLean, [Jonah] Tong and [Brandon] Sproat can come through, why not the Mets?
The AL’s team to beat is …
(Tigers, 5; Yankees, 3; Red Sox, 3; Astros, 2)
The voting was even tighter in the AL than in the NL — four teams received three or more votes — but it was the Blue Jays who edged out the competition with just one more vote than Detroit.
Home-field advantage could make the difference for the AL’s top two teams, both of whom dominate at home but hover around .500 on the road. The Tigers play so well at Comerica Park, where they are able to run rampant on the bases and go first to third on teams. And, of course, they feature Tarik Skubal at the top of their rotation. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays can get the newly renovated Rogers Centre rocking as hard as any stadium in the majors. That top seed in the AL is up for grabs down the stretch — and one of these two teams is highly likely to get it.
Why the Blue Jays
AL player: “They’re one of the most rounded teams in the AL. They have some experience, especially in the rotation, and have a little bit of everything in the lineup. That’s tough to contend with in a series. I just think they have the most complete team.”
AL scout: “As good as [Bo] Bichette, Vlad [Guerrero Jr.] and [George] Springer have been, it’s the contributions from guys from the left side of the plate like [Nathan] Lukes and [Addison] Barger which make Toronto really dangerous. They have some balance, which has eluded them.”
AL exec: “I love their team, but I question their bullpen. It hasn’t been very stout in the second half. Tommy Nance might be a guy to lean on.”
Biggest threat to Blue Jays: Detroit Tigers
AL player: “Detroit is high up on that list [of teams to beat]. They know how to win. That’s the biggest thing. They proved that last offseason. And they’ve turned that park into a nice home-field advantage. I know they go first to third better than anyone. That’s a key, playing in that ballpark.”
AL scout: “Sometimes seeing a team play a lot you can get a more negative opinion than what their record is, and sometimes it can be a more positive opinion than their record. With the Tigers, it’s the latter. And they already have a pretty good record.”
AL exec: “I’ve tried to fill out playoff rotations without a true ace. It’s really tough. So having Tarik Skubal makes all the difference for me. Unless he runs out of gas, Detroit is my pick.”
If not Toronto or Detroit, then who?
A case can be made for any of the wild-card entrants — depending on where Houston finishes, as it remains in a tight division battle with Seattle — to pull off an October upset with big-game experience oozing from the Astros and Yankees lineups. New York can also slug, of course, while the return of Yordan Alvarez makes Houston’s offense ever so dangerous again.
The Red Sox, on the other hand, have made the postseason only once (2021) since winning the World Series in 2018. However, they feature a balanced lineup with playoff leadership in the form of Alex Bregman. Plus, Aroldis Chapman is about as good as it gets on the closer front.
AL exec: “I think their bullpen will get hot, and [they] have enough power bats to get through a weaker field in the AL.”
AL player: “It’s the Red Sox. They are playing good baseball. They have formidable pitching starting with [Garrett] Crochet and their lineup is cohesive and looks like they have a good time together. They know how to win with Bregman there.”
AL player: “Everyone is forgetting that Yordan Alvarez missed most of the season. He’s a difference-maker. And when we played them, Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown were as good as any two pitchers. Houston is my pick.”
Everyone’s October sleeper pick: Seattle Mariners
Until recently, the Mariners hadn’t shown the league their best hand, ending up in the sleeper category because of it. Those we spoke to said Seattle simply has more upside available to it than any other team.
AL player: “A team that can get really hot that isn’t playing its best baseball is Seattle. That pitching staff is legit. [Cal] Raleigh hit 50 [home runs] but they have other guys that are built for that moment — the spotlight moment. Randy Arozarena and [Eugenio] Suarez are two of them. They’re built to win late.”
NL player: “It’s one of those lineups where everyone is waiting for them to put it all together. Their rotation is very talented, and they have one of the best closers in the league. I think they’re one of those teams that, if they get hot at the right time, no one can beat them.”
AL exec: “Seattle has one of its best teams we’ve seen there in years. If there is a real sleeper in this entire playoff field, it’s the Seattle Mariners.”
AL exec: “Seattle is my ‘surprise’ team. I think a bad year for pitching in Seattle could get flipped on its head in the postseason with their starters picking it up.”
A number of teams are starting to shift their focus to October as the final month of the 2025 MLB regular season continues.
The Milwaukee Brewers and Chicago Cubs have both clinched postseason berths, with the Brewers closing in on the NL Central title. The Philadelphia Phillies have locked up the NL East title and the Los Angeles Dodgers are headed back to October, again.
And in the biggest twist of the 2025 season, the Cleveland Guardians have rocked the American League playoff picture with a September surge, emerging as a serious contender in both the AL Central and wild-card races entering the final week.
Beyond division races, there are many storylines to watch as the regular season comes to an end and playoffs begin: Where do current playoff matchups stand? What games should you be paying attention to each day leading up to October? Who will be the next team to clinch a postseason berth? And what does the playoff schedule look like?
We have everything you need to know as the regular season hits the homestretch.
Key links: Full MLB standings | Wild-card standings
Who’s in?
Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers clinched the season’s first playoff spot for a second consecutive year on Saturday with a Mets’ loss to Texas.
Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies clinched a spot in the postseason on Sunday with the Giants’ loss to the Dodgers. On Monday with a win over the Dodgers, they clinched the NL East title for the second straight year.
Chicago Cubs
The Cubs clinched their spot in the postseason on Wednesday with a win over the Pirates. It’s their first playoff appearance in a full-length season since 2018.
The Dodgers clinched their 13th consecutive playoff appearance on Friday when the Phillies beat the Diamondbacks.
Who can clinch a playoff spot next?
The Blue Jays, Yankees, Mariners and Padres all have at least a 97% chance of making the postseason, as well.
What are this October’s MLB playoff matchups as it stands now?
American League
Wild-card round: (6) Guardians at (3) Tigers, (5) Red Sox at (4) Yankees
ALDS: Guardians/Tigers vs. (2) Mariners, Red Sox/Yankees vs. (1) Blue Jays
National League
Wild-card round: (6) Mets at (3) Dodgers, (5) Padres at (4) Cubs
NLDS: Mets/Dodgers vs. (2) Phillies, Padres/Cubs vs. (1) Brewers
Breaking down the AL race
The Blue Jays have taken control of the race for the AL’s No. 1 seed. While Toronto sits atop the AL East, the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees are duking it out for wild-card seeding. And the Seattle Mariners are attempting to separate themselves from the Houston Astros in a two-team AL West race. Meanwhile, the Cleveland Guardians are in hot pursuit of the Detroit Tigers in the AL Central while also playing themselves into a tight race for the final wild-card spot.
And what about when these teams get to the postseason? Here’s what their chances are for every round:
Breaking down the NL race
The Brewers were the first MLB team to seal its spot in October, and the Phillies — who then sealed an NL East title — clinched next. A group of contenders have separated themselves atop the NL standings with the New York Mets clinging to a lead over the Arizona Diamondbacks, San Francisco Giants and Cincinnati Reds for the final playoff spot, and there is intrigue in the NL West as the Dodgers attempt to fend off the Padres for the division crown.
And what about when these teams get to the postseason? Here’s what their chances are for every round:
Game of the day
Looking for something to watch today? Here’s the baseball game with the biggest playoff implications:
Playoff schedule
Wild-card series
Best of three, all games at better seed’s stadium
Game 1: Tuesday, Sept. 30
Game 2: Wednesday, Oct. 1
Game 3: Thursday, Oct. 2*
Division series
Best of five
ALDS
Game 1: Saturday, Oct. 4
Game 2: Sunday, Oct. 5
Game 3: Tuesday, Oct. 7
Game 4: Wednesday, Oct. 8*
Game 5: Friday, Oct. 10*
NLDS
Game 1: Saturday, Oct. 4
Game 2: Monday, Oct. 6
Game 3: Wednesday, Oct. 8
Game 4: Thursday, Oct. 9*
Game 5: Saturday, Oct. 11*
League championship series
Best of seven
ALCS
Game 1: Sunday, Oct. 12
Game 2: Monday, Oct. 13
Game 3: Wednesday, Oct. 15
Game 4: Thursday, Oct. 16
Game 5: Friday, Oct. 17*
Game 6: Sunday, Oct. 19*
Game 7: Monday, Oct. 20*
NLCS
Game 1: Monday, Oct. 13
Game 2: Tuesday, Oct. 14
Game 3: Thursday, Oct. 16
Game 4: Friday, Oct. 17
Game 5: Saturday, Oct. 18*
Game 6: Monday, Oct. 20*
Game 7: Tuesday, Oct. 21*
World Series
Best of seven
Game 1: Friday, Oct. 24
Game 2: Saturday, Oct. 25
Game 3: Monday, Oct. 27
Game 4: Tuesday, Oct. 28
Game 5: Wednesday, Oct. 29*
Game 6: Friday, Oct. 31*
Game 7: Saturday, Nov. 1*
* If necessary
Shohei Ohtani launched his 53rd home run to tie for the National League lead as the Los Angeles Dodgers erased an early four-run deficit Saturday night in a 7-5 victory over the San Francisco Giants.
Ohtani pulled even with Philadelphia Phillies slugger Kyle Schwarber when the Japanese star connected for a 403-foot shot to left field in the sixth inning. It was Ohtani’s 29th homer at Dodger Stadium this season, a franchise record. He topped his own mark of 28 last year, when he finished with a career-high 54 on the way to winning his third MVP award and first in the National League.
“I think that the home run title will be great. But I think it’s just a byproduct of taking good at-bats, and he’s playing to win,” Roberts said. “If there’s a walk that’s needed and they’re not pitching to him, he’s taking his walks. And if they make a mistake, he’s making them pay.”
Ohtani also scored his career-high 140th run of the season.
Another remarkable season by the two-way star had the rest of his clubhouse touting the case for a third straight MVP award.
“I haven’t looked up any deep numbers or anything like that, but I think [the MVP is] Shohei,” said starter Tyler Glasnow, who rebounded from a four-run first inning with four scoreless innings to get the win. “He pitches and hits. I think it’s obviously Shohei, in my mind.”
Max Muncy‘s two-run homer in the first inning pulled Los Angeles to 4-2. Michael Conforto also went deep and Tommy Edman hit a tiebreaking shot for the playoff-bound Dodgers, who won their fourth straight and lead the NL West by four games over the San Diego Padres with seven to play.
The Giants stayed four games behind the New York Mets for the last NL wild card, with the Cincinnati Reds and Arizona Diamondbacks also ahead of the Giants.
Jack Dreyer pitched a perfect ninth for his fourth save.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
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