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The 2023 MLB playoffs are in full swing!

After the wild-card round ended quickly with sweeps in all four series, the division series matchups are set.

Will the favored Atlanta Braves roll through the National League, or will one of the Philadelphia Phillies, Los Angeles Dodgers or Arizona Diamondbacks be the NL’s last team standing? Can the Baltimore Orioles turn a 100-plus-win season into a World Series berth, or will we see a deep run from the Texas Rangers, Minnesota Twins or defending champion Houston Astros?

MLB experts Bradford Doolittle, Alden Gonzalez and David Schoenfield get you ready for it all with odds for every round, a predicted date of each team’s last game and a name to watch for all 8 remaining World Series hopefuls.

Note: World Series and matchup odds come from Doolittle’s formula using power ratings as the basis for 10,000 simulations to determine the most likely outcomes.

Jump to a team:
TEX | TB | HOU | BAL
ARI | PHI | LAD | ATL

American League

Baltimore Orioles

No. 1 seed | 101-61 | AL East champs

ALDS opponent: Rangers (50.2% chance of advancing)

World Series odds: 12.1% | Caesars odds: +650

Predicted date of their last game: Oct. 23

The one thing that will decide their October fate: Now that All-Star closer Felix Bautista is officially done for the season and will undergo Tommy John surgery, the pressure ramps up on a Baltimore bullpen that was so dominant with the late-game duo of Yennier Cano and Bautista. Cano has been a little more hittable in the second half, especially in the final month. The Orioles are deep in left-handed relievers with Cionel Perez, Danny Coulombe and rookie DL Hall, but they’re scrambling a bit from the right side aside from Cano. Tyler Wells, a starter until he was sent down to the minors in late July, is back as a reliever and could get some high-leverage moments. — Schoenfield

Ready for his October close-up: Last year, when the Orioles rose from 110 losses to the edge of contention within the sport’s most difficult division, it was all about Adley Rutschman. This year, as the Orioles have surged through a 100-win season, it’s all about Gunnar Henderson, a lock for the AL Rookie of the Year award and a legitimate star at the age of 22. Henderson can hit, slug, run and field, but, like Rutschman, he also just seems to have this aura around him, like it’s already so obvious that we’re watching a generational talent. That swing is pure poetry, too. — Gonzalez

Why you should root for them: This is a franchise that lost 110 games just two seasons ago, making this year’s rise to the top of the American League one of the most dramatic turnarounds in major league history. The Orioles have emerging young stars such as Rutschman and Henderson, plus vets such as Cedric Mullins and Anthony Santander who suffered through some terrible seasons in Baltimore. They’re not flashy, but they play good defense, they run the bases well and the lineup is deeper than you might realize. Plus, root for them now when they’re the shiny new thing: You might get tired of them down the road after they make the playoffs every year for the next decade. — Schoenfield

What they do that could take down the Braves: One thing we know about the AL teams in the bracket is that if they play the Braves in the last series of the season, that will mean any questions about them that we have entering the playoffs will have been answered. In the Orioles’ case, that will mean the back of the bullpen has come together but even more importantly, it would suggest that the stage hasn’t been too big for the O’s. And that would mean their young stars like Henderson and Rutschman are doing their thing. If that happens, all the Orioles have to do is be themselves, because they can match the Braves in terms of raw talent. — Doolittle


Houston Astros

No. 2 seed | 90-72 | AL West champs

ALDS opponent: Twins (53.3% chance of advancing)

World Series odds: 12.5% | Caesars odds: +500

Predicted date of their last game: Nov. 3

The one thing that will decide their October fate: Pitching carried the Astros to the World Series title last season — especially the bullpen — as they hit just .232/.302/.389 in the postseason. The pitching doesn’t appear as strong this season, so the offense will have to do better. We all know what Yordan Alvarez can do but the keys are Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman. Altuve didn’t have a single RBI last postseason and Bregman struggled in the 2021 playoffs, when he was battling an injury. Houston needs both of them to perform this October. — Schoenfield

Ready for his October closeup: Michael Brantley remained a major voice in the Astros’ clubhouse during their run to a championship last fall, but his bat was a major void from their lineup. Now he’s back. Brantley returned in August after a 14-month absence that was caused by a torn labrum, and he did what he always does — he performed like one of the best pure hitters in the game. This team is still very much the same Astros that have reached the AL Championship Series in six straight years, but they’ve only performed like that in spurts this season. They’ll really need Brantley’s bat in the playoffs this time. — Gonzalez

Why you should root for them: Well, chances are you won’t, unless you’re an Astros fan. Even last year you could at least root for Dusty Baker to finally win a World Series. But maybe you’re a fan of baseball history and would appreciate Houston becoming the first team to win consecutive World Series since the Yankees won three in a row from 1998 to 2000. OK, who am I kidding? You’re not rooting for the Astros unless you live in Houston. — Schoenfield

What they do that could take down the Braves: Remember ’21. If we end up with a pairing of the last two champions in the Fall Classic, it will be a bit of a turnabout. In 2021, an upstart Braves squad that won just 88 regular season games knocked off a 95-win Astros squad in six games. Adding to the indignity was that Atlanta finished off the Astros in Houston. The enduring image from the deciding contest was on a night when the roof was open at Minute Maid Park, Jorge Soler blasted a Luis Garcia pitch over the Crawford Boxes, over the head of the choo-choo commander up on the tracks and out onto the street and into the Texas night. If we get a rematch, we’re talking about a 104-win Braves juggernaut against a wounded champ in Houston, which barely earned its playoff spot. Is revenge the right motivation for a defending champ? Sure, why not? — Doolittle


Minnesota Twins

No. 3 seed | 87-75 | AL Central champs

ALDS opponent: Astros (46.7% chance of advancing)

World Series odds: 10.5% | Caesars odds: +2000

Predicted date of their last game: Oct. 11

The one thing that will decide their October fate: Will the Twins stay healthy enough? Everything went Minnesota’s way in the opening round, but health remains a question. Carlos Correa missed the final two weeks of the regular season with plantar fasciitis. Royce Lewis, who hit four grand slams in an eight-game stretch and leads the team in OPS, missed the end of the season with a hamstring issue before a stellar wild-card round. Byron Buxton, who didn’t play in the field all season, missed almost all of the final two months (and scuffled at the plate all season anyway). Reliever Brock Stewart, who came out of nowhere to post a sub-1.00 ERA, had been out since June before returning for the final two series. — Schoenfield

Ready for his October closeup: Lewis spent the first two months of the season recovering from his second torn ACL and didn’t join the team until late May. But he has been the Twins’ most productive hitter, slashing .309/.372/.548 in a 58-game sample. Injuries, unfortunately, continue to be a big part of his story. Lewis missed six weeks around midseason with an oblique strain and finished the year on the injured list, though he seems on track to at least make it back as a designated hitter. The Twins had high hopes for Lewis when they took him with the No. 1 overall pick out of high school in 2017, and he has finally provided glimpses of his potential this year. His real opportunity is in the postseason — and he is off to a roaring start. — Gonzalez

Why you should root for them: This is an easy one. You’re certainly tired of the Astros. You’re not ready to jump on the Orioles’ or Rangers’ bandwagons. But the Twins … the Twins just ended an unfathomable streak of 18 consecutive playoff losses going back to 2004. The fine people of Minnesota don’t deserve this. Let the Twins make a run. Nobody expects them to win, so if you want an underdog in the AL, the Twins are your team. — Schoenfield

What they do that could take down the Braves: One of the things that makes the Braves so lethal is that despite a historic level of collective power, they don’t strike out that much. Nevertheless, the standout trait of the Twins has been the ability of their pitchers to dominate the strike zone. Minnesota’s hurlers led the majors in strikeout percentage and ranked fourth in walk percentage. The strike zone is a dangerous place to be against the Braves: Their OPS on pitches in the zone was nearly 100 points better than that of any other team. For Sonny Gray, Pablo Lopez and the rest, throwing strikes while staying out of the middle of the plate is their best hope of keeping the Braves in the ballpark and, perhaps just as important, keeping runners off base so when Atlanta does go deep, it’s a solo shot. — Doolittle


Texas Rangers

No. 5 seed | 90-72 | AL second wild card

ALDS opponent: Orioles (49.8% chance of advancing)

World Series odds: 12.1% | Caesars odds: +1600

Predicted date of their last game: Oct. 11

The one thing that will decide their October fate: The bullpen. The Rangers have the worst bullpen ERA of any of the playoff teams and rank 26th in the majors in bullpen win probability added. Will Smith lost his job as closer weeks ago and Aroldis Chapman and Jose Leclerc have shared closer duties in September. Both do have strikeout stuff and the ability to dominate — when they’re not walking everybody. And who sets them up? Andrew Heaney has been pitching out of the bullpen and will get key innings. Jonathan Hernandez had to relieve Chapman in a key spot in Seattle and gave up a game-losing bases-loaded double. The lack of depth also means it’s imperative for the starters to give Bruce Bochy some length. Jordan Montgomery has been able to do that, but Nathan Eovaldi had been slowly ramping up since his return from the injured list before a strong showing to open the postseason. And Max Scherzer? The Rangers haven’t ruled him out of the postseason — and you don’t want to bet against Scherzer — but his return appears unlikely. — Schoenfield

Ready for his October closeup: The Rangers acquired Adolis Garcia for almost nothing. The Cardinals had basically given up on him, and so in December of 2019, the Rangers picked him up for mere cash considerations. He didn’t establish himself in the major leagues until 2021, his age-28 season, but he has improved every year since with his OPS jumping from .741 to .756 to, this year, .836. As the Rangers have lifted themselves into championship contention, Garcia has emerged as one of the sport’s most menacing power hitters. He also has become a lot more discerning within the strike zone. The Rangers, with that very shaky bullpen situation, are going to have to hit their way through October, and Garcia will be a big part of that. — Gonzalez

Why you should root for them: The Braves’ offense has understandably received much of the national attention, but the Rangers aren’t far behind in runs scored — although they’ve benefited from a huge home-park advantage with 53 more home runs at Globe Life Field than on the road. Like the Braves, they have ridiculous depth from No. 1 to No. 9 in the lineup, with Corey Seager leading the way by putting up one of the greatest offensive seasons ever for a shortstop (other than missing 40 games). They lead the AL in average, home runs, walks, OBP and slugging. Oh, and keep an eye on 21-year-old outfielder Evan Carter, who has torn the cover off the ball since his September call-up. — Schoenfield

What they do that could take down the Braves: The Rangers bashed their way to a breakout season for much of the summer. They won 11 games by 10 or more runs, far and away more than any other team. That includes the homer-happy Braves. If the Rangers survive the AL bracket, it’s almost certainly going to be because they’ve touched the offensive ceiling they displayed earlier in the campaign. The pitching staff, especially the bullpen, has to be better than it was for much of the post-trade-deadline part of the season. But if the Rangers win the World Series, it’s going to be because Marcus Semien, Seager, Garcia and the rest are turning the scoreboard. In particular, that is their formula for beating Atlanta. — Doolittle

National League

Atlanta Braves

No. 1 seed | 104-58 | NL East champs

NLDS opponent: Phillies (61.5% chance of advancing)

World Series odds: 21.7% | Caesars odds: +275

Predicted date of their last game: Nov. 3

The one thing that will decide their October fate: Suddenly there are big concerns about Atlanta’s starting rotation. Max Fried missed his last couple of starts of the regular season with a blister problem. Charlie Morton has already been ruled out of the division series with a finger issue. Bryce Elder was an All-Star in the first half but saw his ERA balloon to over 5.00 in the second half. Even Spencer Strider has had some mediocre outings down the stretch and seen his MLB-leading strikeout rate drop in the final two months. On top of that, the bullpen has some injury issues and had its worst month in September, which puts even more pressure on the rotation. — Schoenfield

Ready for his October closeup: Ronald Acuna Jr. was nursing a torn ACL when the Braves won it all in 2021. He had made it back when they returned to the postseason in 2022, but he clearly wasn’t himself yet. This year, he has reached a new level. He’s the NL MVP front-runner, the first member of the 40-70 club and a far more disciplined hitter than he ever has been. At 25, he is the best baseball player on the planet (non-Shohei Ohtani division). And his prowess from the leadoff spot is the biggest reason this Braves lineup has become historic. When the games matter most, Acuna can impact them with his majestic power and blazing speed and rocket arm, and he’s sure to do plenty of that in October. — Gonzalez

Why you should root for them: The Murderer’s Row Yankees of Ruth and Gehrig. The Brooklyn Dodgers of the 1950s. The Big Red Machine. The “Idiot” Red Sox of 2004. With a World Series title, the Braves have a chance to cement their place in history as one of the most fearsome lineups of all time. They dominated the regular season — tying the single-season home run record — with a lineup that became the first to feature four players with 35-plus home runs. They’ve been the team to watch all season and now that greatness will be tested in October. — Schoenfield

Why they are the team to beat: The offense is just too good to keep down. And while we’ve seen offensive powerhouses falter before in the crucible of October, the Braves’ attack looks airtight. Their numbers hold up no matter how you split them up. They mash at home and on the road, against lefties and righties, against all kinds of pitch profiles. They have power at every spot in the lineup. Earlier in the season, it looked like the Braves might have become too reliant on homers for scoring, a trait that doesn’t always hold up well in the playoffs. But Atlanta’s offense has gradually become more varied as the season has progressed and right now appears to be without weakness. Sure, the Braves have question marks around their pitching staff, but if their offense is putting up five or more runs a game, that might not matter. — Doolittle


Los Angeles Dodgers

No. 2 seed | 100-62 | NL West champs

NLDS opponent: D-backs (67.4% chance of advancing)

World Series odds: 19.9% | Caesars odds: +500

Predicted date of their last game: Oct. 23

The one thing that will decide their October fate: Sure, they’ll need this patched-together starting rotation to step up, but let’s face it: Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman have carried this team all season with their all-around brilliance and L.A. will be relying on those two stars to keep it going. Yes, those two have supporting offensive characters in Max Muncy and J.D. Martinez, who both topped 30 home runs, and Will Smith, but this has been the Mookie and Freddie show. It’s hard to envision a path to the World Series that doesn’t revolve around those two both having big October runs. — Schoenfield

Ready for his October closeup: Clayton Kershaw and Lance Lynn will be limited in their starts and the likes of Emmet Sheehan, Ryan Pepiot and Ryan Yarbrough will be used mostly to soak up the middle innings. But Bobby Miller — the 24-year-old power right-hander, the best of an emerging young core of starting pitchers — will essentially be counted on to be the Dodgers’ ace. He has the electric stuff, and the Dodgers believe he also possesses the poise, a la Walker Buehler. Miller dominated at the outset, allowing only two runs in 23 innings through the first four starts of his major league career. He hasn’t been as effective since, but he had a solid month of September. He’ll need to take it to another level in October. — Gonzalez

Why you should root for them: I get it: The Dodgers are here every year, they’re a blue-blood franchise with a high payroll and you’re about as tired of them as you are of the Astros. But you also have to respect what this organization has accomplished, tying an MLB record with a third straight 100-win season (a stretch that almost certainly would have been five in a row if the entire 2020 season had been played). And yet, their only World Series title during this dynastic run carries an asterisk because it came that shortened campaign with playoff games at neutral sites and the whole weirdness of that season. So, yes, there is part of me that would like the Dodgers to win a World Series in a real season, with fans in the stands, with Mookie hitting home runs, Freddie hitting doubles and maybe even Kershaw dialing up Father Time and having his best October ever. — Schoenfield

What they do that could take down the Braves: While the Braves might be scrambling to fill out an injury-riddled rotation, the Dodgers have been doing that all along. So there doesn’t appear to be an advantage for Atlanta in starting pitching and the Dodgers’ bullpen is deeper and better. If that translates to lower-scoring games than the Braves prefer, the chances of one or two performances tipping the series rise. And for all of Ronald Acuna Jr.’s spectacular play and Matt Olson‘s home runs, would anyone be surprised if Freeman and Betts were enough all on their own to propel the Dodgers past the Braves? Their combined brilliance this season has been breathtaking and the postseason context for both of them is by now old hat. — Doolittle


Philadelphia Phillies

No. 4 seed | 90-72 | NL first wild card

NLDS opponent: Braves (38.6% chance of advancing)

World Series odds: 8.5% | Caesars odds: +1400

Predicted date of their last game: Oct. 12

The one thing that will decide their October fate: Home runs. This is true of every team, of course, that you need to hit home runs to win in the postseason, but the Phillies spent the first four months of the season not hitting enough homers. Through the end of July they were 21st in the majors in home runs, topping out at 33 in a month. Then they hit 59 in August and 46 in September to tie the Braves for the most home runs over the final two months. That team — like the one we saw last October with Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber leading the way — is a team that can return to the World Series. — Schoenfield

Ready for his October closeup: Phillies fans rallied behind Alec Bohm last year and watched him go from being a mess defensively to a very capable third baseman who became an integral part of a World Series team. The same is taking place with Trea Turner, who signed a $300 million contract over the offseason and struggled mightily through his first four months. He then got a supportive standing ovation from the home crowd, and went off in August and September. It’s probably no coincidence. When Turner is right, he is one of the most dynamic players in the sport. We saw it early this year during the World Baseball Classic. Soon, he’ll get his chance to become a true Philly legend. — Gonzalez

Why you should root for them: Come on, this is a fun team. Harper is the straw that stirs the drink and he’s must-watch TV in October. Schwarber had one of the wildest, weirdest seasons of all time, with a sub-.200 average but still scoring and driving in 100 runs thanks to his power and walks. Turner got red hot the final two months. Rookie Johan Rojas is electrifying and may be the best defensive center fielder in the game. The bullpen is often a high-wire act, so every Phillies game — whether they’re leading or trailing — feels undecided until that final out. — Schoenfield

What they do that could take down the Braves: The Phillies have star power in the lineup and the collective long ball ability to go toe-to-toe with the Braves. Their outfield defense has improved with personnel changes through the season. The rotation is in much better shape than Atlanta’s injury-marred group. But the most underrated aspect of the Phillies, and where they may have a decisive edge over the Braves, is the bullpen. The Phillies feature high-octane stuff, depth and balance in this area and most of the chief components (Craig Kimbrel, Gregory Soto, Jose Alvarado, Jeff Hoffman, Matt Strahm, Seranthony Domínguez) have been on point as the playoffs approach. In Rob Thomson, they have a skipper who proved last year that he knows how to deploy a bullpen in October. If the Phillies can turn a series against the Braves into a successive battle of the bullpens, look out. — Doolittle


Arizona Diamondbacks

No. 6 seed | 84-78 | NL third wild card

NLDS opponent: Dodgers (32.6% chance of advancing)

World Series odds: 3.8% | Caesars odds: +3300

Predicted date of their last game: Oct. 12

The one thing that will decide their October fate: The starting pitchers not named Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly — but what happens after that? The only other starter with an ERA under 5.00 was Tommy Henry and he’s injured. Zach Davies was actually in the rotation until he was designated for assignment just a few days before the season ended. That leaves rookies Ryne Nelson and Brandon Pfaadt, who have both been hit hard and struggled with the long ball. Pfaadt has more swing-and-miss stuff, so he’s probably the No. 3 starter, but Arizona will have to find a way to win some non-Gallen/Kelly games. — Schoenfield

Ready for his October closeup: You’d be hard-pressed to find a more electric player than Corbin Carroll, a dynamic defender and an elite hitter who also plays with his hair on fire. Carroll became the first player ever to combine 50-plus steals with 25-plus home runs and 10-plus triples in the same season. He did that as a rookie. David Cone recently said Carroll reminds him of Derek Jeter in his rookie season, largely because of their leadership qualities at a young age. One big difference: Jeter played for one of the world’s most decorated franchises. Carroll, not so much. But that’s what makes the playoffs so cool — the world is about to find out just how good and fun Carroll really is. — Gonzalez

Why you should root for them: We mentioned the Orioles turning it around from 110 losses two seasons ago. Well, the Diamondbacks matched them that year with 110 defeats, so getting to the playoffs just two years later is a great achievement for a young, building team. In this day of rocket-armed pitchers, Gallen and Kelly are two starters who rely on movement, location and pitch selection more than pure velocity. The art of pitching is alive and well with those two. — Schoenfield

What they do that could take down the Braves: Run, run, run. Despite the uptick in stolen bases this season, this still isn’t baseball, circa 1985. To run on offense, the hitters have to get on base and get the ball in play. If that happens, the Diamondback rolled up 161 stolen bases and did so with a MLB-best 87% success rate. They can drive Sean Murphy and his pitchers crazy. But that’s not the only kind of running we’re talking about. Arizona’s athleticism also paid off on defense as Torey Lovullo’s fielders as a unit was arguably the best in the majors. Like Toronto, if Arizona’s pitchers can keep the Braves’ power bats in the ballpark (easier said than done), Carroll & Co. can impact games by running down balls in the gap — Doolittle

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How Thompson, Bedard, Keller, others are using 4 Nations snubs as Olympic motivation

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How Thompson, Bedard, Keller, others are using 4 Nations snubs as Olympic motivation

HENDERSON, NV — Connor Bedard didn’t take it personally when Canada left the Chicago Blackhawks sensation off its 4 Nations Face-Off roster.

“I mean, I kind of knew. I had a slow start last year,” he told ESPN last week. “There are so many great players in Canada. Even if I went out and played great and didn’t make the team, it’s not like I was going to be butt-hurt.”

Tage Thompson of the Buffalo Sabres took it a little more personally when Team USA passed him over for the 4 Nations Face-Off.

“Going into the second half of the season, it was extra motivation to show them that I could play,” he said. “That maybe I did belong out there. I used it to fuel my game and push it in the right direction.”

Apparently, trying to earn the chance to represent one’s country in a best-on-best tournament is a heck of a motivator. Thompson had 24 points in 27 games for the Sabres following the 4 Nations break, with 18 goals.

Dozens of NHL players enter the 2025-26 season with Olympic aspirations. The NHL is returning to the Winter Games for the first time since 2014, taking a break in its season so players can chase gold in Italy next February.

While many players from the 4 Nations Face-Off rosters for Canada, the U.S., Sweden and Finland will carry over to their respective Olympic rosters, executives such as Team USA GM Bill Guerin have said that the 4 Nations group was “probably not gonna be the exact lineup that we take to the Olympics.”

That’s good news for players such as Clayton Keller, the Utah Mammoth forward who was left off the 4 Nations roster and, like Thompson, wasn’t exactly thrilled about it.

“Obviously I was upset, but I used it as motivation,” Keller said. “I think I played my best hockey of the year after that. We really came out strong and made a push for the playoffs”


THOMPSON WAS PERHAPS the most significant snub from the Team USA 4 Nations roster. That he was added as an injury replacement reserve for the championship game against Canada underscored how close he was to making the cut.

Thompson watched that game in Boston. Watched as the U.S. lost in overtime, 3-2, unable to break through against goalie Jordan Binnington before Connor McDavid ended the game and secured the gold medal for Canada.

“Obviously, I would’ve loved to be out there and be a guy to help them win,” he said. “But I don’t pick the team. I’m just playing and doing my job on the ice.”

When Team USA was constructed for the 4 Nations Face-Off, Guerin and his management team opted for veteran depth forwards with potential as two-way players — such as Vincent Trocheck, Chris Kreider and Brock Nelson — rather than bringing on younger players better known for their offense.

One reason was their versatility, as players such as Nelson and Trocheck have thrived in different roles in the NHL. Guerin said it’s an adjustment for star players when they join a best-on-best team and are no longer getting their usual ice time and offensive looks.

“You have to check your ego at the door. That happens on any championship team. I feel like we had that in the 1996 World Cup of Hockey team,” Guerin told ESPN. “You just have to do things that you’re not used to doing. Play roles that you’re not used to playing or the minutes that you’re not used to playing. You have to accept that.”

Another reason players such as Keller and Thompson were overlooked was a lack of championship tournament experience. Thompson has never appeared in a Stanley Cup playoff game after eight seasons — seven of them with Buffalo. Keller has appeared only once in the NHL postseason, playing nine games with Arizona during the empty-arena COVID bubble playoffs in 2020.

Both players sought to boost their résumés by playing on the U.S. team in the 2025 IIHF world championships last spring, when the Americans captured their first title since 1960. Guerin put a premium on having players who might be on the Olympic bubble play in worlds.

Not only were Thompson and Keller there, but so were hopefuls such as defensemen Zach Werenski of the Columbus Blue Jackets and Jeremy Swayman of the Boston Bruins, both of whom were on the 4 Nations roster. Younger players such as Anaheim Ducks defenseman Jackson LaCombe and Chicago Blackhawks defenseman Alex Vlasic parlayed their world championship experience into Team USA Olympic orientation camp invites in August.

While Thompson and Keller both said their focus is on their respective NHL seasons, they can’t ignore the Olympic carrot dangling in front of them.

“I think it’s something super cool and exciting and something to play for, and I’m just going to play my game and let the rest take care of itself,” said Keller, who led Utah with 90 points in 81 games last season. “I’m not stressing about it.”

“You don’t want to think about it too much. I feel like my priority is helping our team win in Buffalo. If I do that, then everything just falls into place,” said Thompson, who was Buffalo’s leading scorer with 44 goals in 76 games. “The Olympics is a big goal of mine. It’s something I’ve wanted to be able to do for a long time. So to make the team would be something pretty special. But you don’t want to put too much thought into it.”

Bedard, entering his third season in the NHL after being drafted first overall by Chicago in 2023, opted not to play for Team Canada at IIHF worlds this year. His focus was on his skating and other developmental work in the offseason. Despite Canada’s considerable depth at forward, Bedard is keeping his Olympic hopes alive, having attended orientation camp in August.

“It’d be incredible. It’s not something I think about now too much. I just want to go into camp and have a good start, personally and as a team, and then you see what happens,” said Bedard, who had 67 points in 82 games to led Chicago last season.

Washington Capitals forward Tom Wilson‘s name was circulated among fans after the Americans — and specifically the Tkachuk brothers — mucked things up at 4 Nations. In fact, Wilson fought Brady Tkachuk in a game against the Ottawa Senators a few weeks after the tournament.

While Olympic rules likely mean there won’t be another punch-up between Canada and the U.S., Wilson did earn a Team Canada Olympic orientation camp invite this summer after being left off the 4 Nations roster.

“It was cool. It’s an impressive group of guys, to say the least. It really makes you want to put your head down and just work as hard as you can to put yourself in the conversation for making the Olympic team,” Wilson said. “When you’re a kid, it’s the Stanley Cup and an Olympic gold medal. That’s everything. That’s your biggest, wildest dreams. But you look around that [camp] room, every guy beside you wants it just as much as you do — and it’s the best players in the league.”

Wilson believes that the first few months of the 2025-26 season will see players with Winter Games dreams working extra hard to make a final impression.

“For all those Olympic hopefuls, you don’t have a lot of opportunity to gracefully dip your toes in the water to start the year. It’s a small runway before they started announcing rosters and stuff like that,” he said. “You better believe every guy that was in the conversation this summer was working really hard to start well.”


MAKING AN OLYMPIC ROSTER means taking a roster spot from someone who played in the 4 Nations Face-Off. Philadelphia Flyers defenseman Travis Sanheim played three games for Team Canada at 4 Nations, and competed for the Canadians at IIHF worlds, where they were stunned in the quarterfinals by Denmark.

“Obviously, 4 Nations was something that was a privilege to be on. I probably wasn’t thinking about it a couple years ago, and just the last couple seasons I put myself in that situation,” Sanheim said.

The work doesn’t stop just because he made that roster. Sanheim was one of 14 defensemen who attended Team Canada’s Olympic orientation camp. He’s considered on the bubble for the 2026 Winter Games.

“I think Canada’s such a deep team and the guys that are competing for those roster spots — you could take about 20 guys to fill, what is it, eight spots? So it’s going to be a challenge,” Sanheim said. “The Olympics are something that I’m striving towards and want to be a part of. It’s exciting to have that opportunity.”

Patrick Kane has had that opportunity twice, winning silver in 2010 and losing bronze in 2014 for the Americans. The 36-year-old winger’s absence from Team USA’s 4 Nations roster wasn’t a surprise, as Kane himself admitted his play last season didn’t warrant a selection. However, his presence at the U.S. Olympic orientation camp in August was a surprise to some, although not to Kane.

“They told my agent there’s the potential of maybe making the team. That I was under consideration. So when you hear that, it’s not really that big of a surprise that you’re there,” he said.

Kane said the real surprise was that his Detroit Red Wings teammate Alex DeBrincat wasn’t invited to camp after not making the 4 Nations cut either.

“I think both of us have some motivation to get off to good starts this year,” he said.

Kane remembers back in 2010 when he was a 21-year-old star on the U.S. Olympic team, surrounded by veteran national team members such as Chris Drury, Jamie Langenbrunner and Brian Rafalski. Now, he would be that elder statesman should he make the cut for 2026. But like every other NHL player that hasn’t formally been named to an Olympic roster, Kane knows he must earn it.

“I want to get to a point where obviously you put yourself in consideration for the team just on your play, right? Not for your name or what you’ve done in the past,” Kane said. “That’s the goal going into this year.”

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Week 4 preview: Key matchups, quarterbacks who aren’t meeting their preseason hype and more

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Week 4 preview: Key matchups, quarterbacks who aren't meeting their preseason hype and more

If there’s an overriding storyline through three weeks, it has been about the winners and losers of some big bets on quarterbacks.

Miami bet on Carson Beck reviving his NFL prospects after a down year at Georgia. So far, he has delivered, averaging nearly 10 yards per pass with eight total touchdowns, and the Canes are ranked in the top five.

Oklahoma wagered Brent Venables’ future on John Mateer, and the Washington State transfer has been electric, leading the Sooners past Michigan in a Week 2 showdown and earning Heisman front-runner status.

Auburn felt sure former five-star recruit Jackson Arnold still had plenty of untapped potential, and through three weeks, he has looked like the superstar he once was, getting the Tigers to 3-0.

Ohio State, Georgia and Oregon all bet on in-house QBs rather than dipping into the transfer portal, and all have been rewarded.

Florida State, Indiana and Tulane hit pay dirt in the portal.

That’s the good news.

On the flip side, so many quarterbacks who were expected to provide massive dividends — Arch Manning, Cade Klubnik, DJ Lagway, Nico Iamaleava, LaNorris Sellers — have wavered between average or awful.

Week 4 offers some chances for redemption, with Lagway getting another big test against Miami, Klubnik hoping to right the ship against Syracuse and UNC‘s Gio Lopez going on the road against UCF in the Tar Heels’ first real test since a blowout loss to TCU.

Some of the nation’s most talented young players have a chance to break through, too. CJ Carr can earn win No. 1 against woeful Purdue. Michigan’s Bryce Underwood, coming off a strong performance against Central Michigan, has a much bigger test against Nebraska. Ole Miss’ Austin Simmons hopes to return from injury in time to make his mark in a showdown with Tulane.

The story is just beginning to be written, so there’s plenty of time for Manning, Klubnik and other preseason darlings to find their footing. But it has been a cold September for some of the nation’s most renowned passers, and Week 4 could be another opportunity for others to grab their share of the spotlight. — David Hale

Jump to:
Auburn-Oklahoma | Utah-Texas Tech
Quarterbacks who are falling short
Breakout players | Quotes of the week

What do each of these teams need to do to win?

Auburn: The Tigers have to disrupt Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer and make him pay for running the ball, and they have the ingredients to do so. Auburn is tied for sixth nationally in sacks per game (3.67) and tied for 12th in tackles for loss per game (8.7). Although Keldric Faulk is the headliner, Arkansas State transfer Keyron Crawford has been the team’s most disruptive pass rusher so far with three sacks and a forced fumble. The defense and run game, which ranks 16th nationally at 240 yards per game, ideally must reduce the pressure on quarterback Jackson Arnold in his highly anticipated return to Oklahoma. Arnold is completing nearly 70% of his passes, running the ball effectively and limiting mistakes, but the more Auburn’s other playmakers can take off his plate, the better the chances for a key road win. — Adam Rittenberg

Oklahoma: Arnold started nine games for the Sooners last fall. If anyone knows his weak spots, it’s Oklahoma coach Brent Venables. As Adam points out, Arnold (eight turnovers in 2024) has played efficient, mistake-free football in his first three games at Auburn. A Sooners defense that’s creating pressures on 44.6% of its snaps this season — 10th nationally, per ESPN Research — is built to change that and make Arnold uncomfortable, although Oklahoma will be without 2024 sack leader R Mason Thomas for the first half Saturday following a Week 3 targeting ejection. Mateer will have his own work cut out for him against the Tigers’ defensive front, but he should be able to find holes in a secondary that ranks 85th in yards allowed per game (220.0). The difference, ultimately, could come on the ground where a still-figuring-out Oklahoma rushing attack meets Auburn’s 10th-ranked run defense (67.0 yards per game) on Saturday. Freshman Tory Blaylock (5.4 yards per carry) has been the Sooners’ most effective running back through three games. — Eli Lederman


How do each of these quarterbacks need to perform?

Utah: Through three games a year ago, Utah had gone without a first down on nearly a quarter of its drives. This season, it has happened only three times in three games. The difference is Devon Dampier, who has looked as at ease running his brand of dual-threat football in a Power 4 backfield as he did a year ago at New Mexico. Dampier has racked up more than 800 yards of offense and accounted for eight touchdowns, and he has yet to turn the ball over. His skill set has made him particularly effective. He has already accumulated 80 yards on scramble plays, and three of his seven TD passes have come from outside the pocket. This will be his biggest test to date, but he’ll also be, by far, the biggest challenge for Texas Tech’s defense. — Hale

Texas Tech: Behren Morton hasn’t taken a snap after the third quarter across three straight 30-plus point victories to open the season. Still, Texas Tech’s senior quarterback enters Week 4 tied for No. 1 nationally in passing touchdowns (11) and ranks ninth in passing yards (923), leading the nation’s highest-scoring offense (58.0 PPG). Utah, with the nation’s 20th-ranked pass defense (134.0 yards per game), should present Morton with his toughest test yet in 2025. He’ll have to be accurate against an experienced Utes secondary, and Morton’s decision-making will be key, too, in the face of a Utah front seven that features the nation’s joint sack leader in John Henry Daley — five in three games — and blitzes on 42.6% of its snaps, the 10th-highest rate among FBS defenses, per ESPN Research. Most of all, Texas Tech will hope Morton’s experience (27 career starts) can keep its offense steady in the Red Raiders’ first visit to a notoriously hostile Rice-Eccles Stadium. — Eli Lederman


Three quarterbacks who aren’t meeting their preseason hype

1. Arch Manning

Anyone can have a rough outing in a Week 1 matchup against the defending champs, and Manning looked fine a week later against San José State. So, nothing to worry about, right? Ah, not so fast. A dismal first half against UTEP ignited a full-on inferno of criticism of the preseason Heisman favorite, and for good reason. Manning is completing just 55% of his throws and has turned the ball over three times, and Texas has gone without a first down on nearly a quarter of its drives so far. Add the sideline grimace that coach Steve Sarkisian chalked up to — well, we’re not quite sure — and it would be enough reason for concern even if Manning didn’t carry a legendary name and a ton of hype. That this all comes on the heels of such high expectations means Manning will be fighting critics for the foreseeable future.

2. Cade Klubnik

What’s wrong with Clemson‘s offense? The answers are everywhere, but none appear bigger than Klubnik, who has at times looked lost, frustrated or intimidated in the pocket. His 37.5 QBR through three games ranks 121st out of 136 FBS passers, and his miserable first-half performances — no passing touchdowns, two turnovers — have put Clemson in some early holes. Klubnik is completing less than 60% of his throws on the year, but the bigger issue is the number of open receivers he hasn’t even targeted in key moments. He has been sacked just three times this year, but he has gotten moved off his position too often, and abandoned ship even more frequently. So, what’s wrong with the Tigers? The better question is what’s wrong with the Tigers’ QB?

3. DJ Lagway

After last year’s hot finish, the assumption was that Lagway would take the next step in 2025 to becoming one of the best quarterbacks in the country. Through three weeks, he’s nowhere close. Not only is Florida off to a 1-2 start, Lagway has been the primary culprit. He’s completing 71% of his throws, but nearly one-third of his throws are behind the line of scrimmage. He has done nothing to extend the field, attempting just seven throws of 20 yards or more. On those throws, he has one completion and two picks. Lagway’s six interceptions overall are tied for the second most nationally through three games. If Florida wants to turn things around amid a brutal schedule, it has to start with Lagway looking more like the player he appeared to be down the stretch in 2024. — Hale


Five early breakout players

Rueben Bain Jr., DL, Miami: The 6-foot-3, 275-pound pass rusher is performing at an All-America level so far this season with 15 stops, 11 pressures, 2.5 TFLs, 1.5 sacks, an interception and a forced fumble through three games. Bain was a top-100 recruit and a Freshman All-American in 2023, so there’s nothing shocking about his rise, but he’s making the leap as a junior and proving he’s a no-doubt NFL draft first-round pick. As ESPN draft expert Jordan Reid put it, no other draft-eligible player in the sport is having a greater down-to-down impact than Bain.

Taylen Green, QB, Arkansas: Green is off to an incredible start to his second season under OC Bobby Petrino, leading the country in total offense with 866 passing yards, 307 rushing yards (most among all FBS QBs) and 13 total touchdowns. Last week against Ole Miss, he became the first QB in program history to surpass 300 passing yards and 100 rushing yards in a single game. The Razorbacks came up short in their SEC opener but have seven more top-25 opponents on the schedule, which should give Green every opportunity to play his way into Heisman contention.

Mario Craver, WR, Texas A&M: The Aggies faced Craver last year during his freshman season at Mississippi State and knew he could be a dangerous playmaker. He has been an absolute game changer for Marcel Reed and Texas A&M’s passing game with an FBS-leading 443 receiving yards and four TDs on just 20 receptions. The 5-foot-9, 165-pound wideout isn’t flying under the national radar anymore after burning Notre Dame’s secondary for a career-best 207 yards on seven catches, and his 279 yards after catch are nearly 100 more than any other pass catcher in the country.

Ahmad Hardy, RB, Missouri: Hardy had a prolific freshman season at UL Monroe and hasn’t slowed down one bit since making his move to the SEC. He’s now the second-leading rusher in the FBS with 462 yards and five TDs after a ridiculous 250-yard day against Louisiana last week. The sophomore has played in only 15 career games, yet he already has three 200-yard performances on his résumé, and he leads all FBS backs with 29 forced missed tackles, according to ESPN Research.

Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, QB, Cal: The true freshman from Hawaii was a late riser in the recruiting rankings as a high school senior, and we’re quickly learning why he became so coveted. Sagapolutele signed with Oregon but flipped back to Cal in early January, believing he’d have a chance to start right away for the Golden Bears. The 6-foot-3, 225-pound lefty has flashed big-time arm talent and exciting potential with 780 passing yards and seven total TDs while leading a 3-0 start. He’s becoming must-see TV on a Cal squad that looks poised to exceed expectations. — Max Olson


Quotes of the Week

Clemson coach Dabo Swinney on speculation about his job security:
“Hey, listen, if Clemson’s tired of winning, they can send me on my way. But I’m gonna go somewhere else and coach. I ain’t going to the beach. Hell, I’m 55. I’ve got a long way to go. Y’all are gonna have to deal with me for a while.”

Texas coach Steve Sarkisian on quarterback Arch Manning:
“Here’s a guy who’s had an awesome life, the way he’s grown up, the people he’s been surrounded by. I think you learn a lot about yourself through adversity and overcoming adversity. … When he gets on the other side of it, I think all of this is going to serve well not only for him, but for us as a team.”

LSU coach Brian Kelly:
“LSU won the football game, won the game. I don’t know what you want from me. What do you want? You want us to win 70-0 against Florida to keep you happy?”

Michigan fill-in coach Biff Poggi on Bryce Underwood:
“He might actually be Batman. We need to do a DNA test on him.”

Georgia Tech coach Brent Key addressing his team after beating Clemson:
“Enjoy the s— out of it, man. Guess what? Next week is going to be bigger.”

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Sources: ACC closing in on new schedule format

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Sources: ACC closing in on new schedule format

The ACC is closing in on a change to its scheduling format that will require all league teams to play at least 10 games against Power Four competition, though the number of intra-conference games played — eight or nine — remains a sticking point, according to multiple sources.

Athletics directors are scheduled to meet Monday in Charlotte to discuss the details of what will either be a move to a nine-game conference slate with one additional Power Four game required out of conference or an “8+2” model that would provide more flexibility to schools who already have an annual non-conference rival.

“The ACC committing to go to 10 Power Four games is a big step forward,” Clemson athletics director Graham Neff said. “It’s indicative of where college football is and leans into emphasizing the importance of strength of schedule and more Power Four matchups.”

Neff is among the handful of ADs concerned that a nine-game conference slate would be problematic in limiting schools’ ability to play marquee non-conference games, as Clemson did this season against LSU in Week 1.

The Tigers play South Carolina annually and, beginning in 2027, will also have a yearly game against Notre Dame.

A straw poll of 13 of the ACC’s 17 athletics directors showed nine supported or were amenable to the nine-game slate, while Clemson and Florida State are among the others with concerns about the impact on non-conference scheduling.

The SEC announced last month it would move from an eight-game to a nine-game conference slate — a decision that has spurred the ACC’s interest in adjusting its scheduling model, too.

Multiple sources said ACC commissioner Jim Phillips wants to see the conference play nine league games annually plus require each school to schedule one out-of-conference game against another Power Four school, essentially matching the SEC’s new strategy. ACC schools are already supposed to have at least one Power Four non-conference game each year, but that rule has not been enforced and several programs have avoided playing a more difficult schedule. Sources told ESPN that the current conversations have reached a consensus that 10 Power Four games must be an enforced minimum moving forward.

One administrator said it felt inevitable the league was going to go to nine league games. Duke coach Manny Diaz agreed.

“I think it’d be awfully strange to be the only conference not at nine conference games,” Diaz said. “Usually when you’re the only one doing something, it’s either really good or really bad. It just feels like you’d want continuity in what everybody does in college sports.”

The SEC’s move coincided with the College Football Playoff committee’s revised guidelines that emphasize strength of opponent. SEC schools are also expected to see an increase in revenue from its TV partner, ESPN, for adding the additional conference game.

ACC ADs were briefed on the various plans during a call Wednesday, though several said there remains little understanding of how potential changes would be accepted by ESPN or considered among the College Football Playoff committee. Indeed, as Radakovich noted, the ideal formula for a 12-team playoff vs. an expanded playoff might not be the same, but the ACC will need to decide its scheduling fate before knowing what the future playoff might look like.

“Hopefully Jim [Phillips] will give us some insight into that when we get together Monday, and help set the table that, hey, nine is going to be really important for us to keep a very good seat at the table as it relates to the other CFP commissioners and the Power 4 conferences,” Miami athletics director Dan Radakovich said. “It all depends on how big the CFP gets. That’s another driving factor we won’t know. We’re going to have to make this decision without that knowledge and try to project it the best way we can.”

No additional revenues are expected to come from ESPN if a change is made. The ACC also changed its revenue-distribution model starting in 2025, awarding a higher percentage of revenue to schools based on TV ratings.

“It’s important we continue to be strategic in providing value to our media partner, ESPN,” Neff said. “And with how the ACC has adapted our financial distribution model, that has direct school revenue implications unlike any other conference.”

The ACC has wrestled with how many league games it should play for more than a decade. In 2012, the ACC agreed to play nine league games, but decided to stay at eight after adding Syracuse and Pittsburgh and coming to a scheduling agreement with Notre Dame the following year. The intra-state nonconference rivalry games that Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech and Louisville play annually against their SEC rivals have always been a sticking point in any of these discussions.

For those four specific teams, their rivalry games coupled with a nine-game conference slate would provide a full inventory of 10 Power Four matchups — with more in years in which those schools play Notre Dame as part of the league’s agreement that requires five games per year against the Irish. That leaves little room for marquee matchups like Clemson-LSU or Florida State-Alabama, two games that did monster ratings in Week 1 of this season, each drawing more than 10 million viewers.

But future marquee non-conference matchups like those could disappear once the ACC moves to a nine-game conference slate, Neff said, which could diminish the overall product and inhibit revenue opportunities, given the ACC’s new distribution model that provides more money to schools with better TV ratings.

Radakovich noted that games like this week’s showdown with Florida are unlikely to be played moving forward due to the constraints of a larger conference schedule, but he will continue to have conversations with Florida athletic director Scott Stricklin.

“It’s going to be a real tough sell because Florida has their nine SEC games and their rivalry game with FSU,” Radakovich said. “Scott and I will have some chats to see if it can happen but it’s going to be some tough sledding.”

Louisville athletics director Josh Heird said his school would still schedule top non-conference competition, even if that means an 11th Power Four game. The Cardinals currently have future games scheduled against Georgia in 2026 and 2027 and Texas A&M in 2028 and 2029.

“Play good teams,” Heird said. “We’ll play Kentucky every year, and we’ll have Notre Dame every once in a while. And we absolutely want to still play the home-and-homes with Georgia and Texas A&M. I think the kids want to play those games, too.”

Several ADs expressed concern, however, that series like Louisville’s with Georgia and Texas A&M would disappear regardless, as the SEC bows out of such matchups now that its teams will play nine league games. Others suggested the SEC and Big Ten — the two leagues with the most financial clout — could work together for non-conference scheduling, leaving the ACC and Big 12 with few options to fill out their schedules, particularly if the ACC has two Power Four non-conference games required.

“You’re not guaranteed 10,” one AD in favor of a 9+1 model said. “That’s the issue. Who’s to say the other Power four leagues want to schedule ACC schools?”

One alternative could be for ACC teams to schedule non-conference games against each other, as NC State and Virginia did in Week 2. Several ADs expressed skepticism about that plan, however, suggesting it would be extremely confusing for fans to understand which ACC vs. ACC matchups counted in the league standing and which did not.

Regardless, the ACC will have to figure out a way around a more basic problem of math. With 17 football-playing members, there’s no way for all schools to play nine conference games.

One initial plan involved games vs. Notre Dame — an ACC member in all sports except football — to count as conference games. Multiple ADs told ESPN that plan has been shelved for the time being, likely in favor of an imbalanced model in which at least one team will play just eight conference games while the rest play nine.

Monday’s meetings in Charlotte are expected to move the league closer to a final decision, but several sources said they did not expect an official vote to happen for a few weeks and were similarly dubious a change would take effect for the 2026 season.

“Let’s look to try to set our course,” Radakovich said. “The discussions will happen Monday but decisions will hopefully happen shortly thereafter. Hopefully we’ll come out of that with a consensus that leads the ACC to a final conclusion.”

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