OPEC hikes long-term oil demand outlook — in stark contrast to other predictions of peak crude
An oil pumpjack is seen near a field of wind turbines on October 04, 2023 in Nolan, Texas.
Brandon Bell | Getty Images
OPEC on Monday raised its medium- and long-term forecasts for global oil demand.
The oil producer group said the crude sector would require a whopping $14 trillion in investment if it is to meet this upswing, even amid a rapid expansion of renewable energy technologies.
OPEC’s long-term forecast for global oil demand diverges from that of the International Energy Agency, the world’s leading energy watchdog. OPEC and the IEA, both big names in the energy industry, are currently locked in a war of words over peak oil demand.
In its 2023 World Oil Outlook, OPEC said it expects global demand to reach 116 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2045, up from 99.6 million bpd in 2022 and roughly 6 million more bpd than it predicted in last year’s report.
OPEC made clear that there’s potential for this jump to be even higher, too. The growth is likely to be fueled by India, China, other Asian countries, Africa, and the Middle East.
For its long-term oil demand forecast to be met, OPEC said oil sector investments of $14 trillion, or around $610 billion on average per year, would be needed. The group said it is “vital” that these investments are delivered, saying it is beneficial to both producers and consumers.
In the medium term, OPEC said global oil demand was likely to reach a level of 110.2 million bpd in 2028, reflecting a jump of 10.6 million bpd when compared to 2022 levels.
“Recent developments have led the OPEC team to reassess just what each energy can deliver, with a focus on pragmatic and realistic options and solutions,” OPEC Secretary General Haitham al-Ghais said in a foreword to the report.
“Calls to stop investments in new oil projects are misguided and could lead to energy and economic chaos,” al-Ghais said. “History is replete with numerous examples of turmoil that should serve as a warning for what occurs when policymakers fail to acknowledge energy’s interwoven complexities.”
Beginning of the end?
OPEC’s forecasts contrast starkly with those of the IEA, which said last month that the world was now at the “beginning of the end” of the fossil fuel era.
In an op-ed published in the Financial Times, IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said for the first time that demand for coal, oil and gas would all peak before 2030, with fossil fuel consumption then predicted to fall as climate policies take effect.
Birol’s assessment is based on the IEA’s World Energy Outlook, an influential report which is due out in October.
The IEA chief hailed the forecast as a “historic turning point” but made clear that the projected declines would be “nowhere near enough” to put the world on a path to limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
This temperature threshold is widely regarded as critical to avoiding the worst impacts of climate change. The burning of fossil fuels is the chief driver of the climate crisis.
OPEC was sharply critical of the IEA’s forecast of peak fossil fuel demand before the end of the decade. The group said in a statement published Sept. 14 that the IEA’s narrative was “extremely risky,” “impractical” and “ideologically driven.”
OPEC has previously urged the IEA to be “very careful” about undermining industry investments.
The IEA, meanwhile, had hinted peak oil demand could be in the cards before Birol’s recent op-ed.
“Based on the current policies that are in place, we are seeing continued growth in oil demand through every year to 2028. But, as we state in the report, we are starting to see that peak in oil demand on the horizon,” Toril Bosoni, head of the oil markets division at the IEA, told CNBC’s “Street Signs Europe” on June 14.
The relationship between OPEC and the IEA has been increasingly fraught in recent years, with Birol criticizing the pace at which the producers’ alliance increased its output rates, as it unwound the drastic production cuts it implemented in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic.
OPEC and the IEA have also diverged in their approach to global decarbonization. The IEA has repeatedly said the pathway to net-zero emissions requires massive declines in the use of oil, gas and coal and warned in a landmark report in 2021 that there is no place for new fossil fuel projects if the world is to curb global heating to 1.5 degrees Celsius.
— CNBC’s Ruxandra Iordache contributed to this report.
Tesla average transaction prices (ATPs) in March are estimated at $54,582, higher year-over-year by 3.5% and higher than in February, according to the latest monthly new-vehicle ATP report from Cox Automotive’s Kelley Blue Book.
Average transaction prices for the Tesla Model 3 and Model Y were higher month-over-month and year-over-year in March. Tesla’s sales in Q1 continued their long-term decline after peaking in Q1 2023. Estimates from Kelley Blue Book suggest Tesla’s sales in Q1 2025 were lower year-over-year by more than 8%. Its deliveries were also worse than expected.
New EV prices in March overall are initially estimated by Kelley Blue Book to be $59,205, higher year-over-year by 7.0%. New EV prices increased from the revised higher February ATP of $57,015.
The ATP for an EV last month was nearly 25% higher than the industry average of $47,462, widening the price gap between new EVs and gas-powered cars even more.
But EVs are still seeing heftier incentives than the industry average. In March, the average EV incentive came in at 13.3% of the transaction price – down 1% from February’s revised 14.3% but still well above what gas cars are getting.
So, where are we heading? Higher prices, thanks to Trump’s tariffs. But what that will look like remains to be seen. Erin Keating, executive analyst at Cox Automotive, said, “All signs point to higher prices this summer, as existing ‘pre-tariff’ inventory is sold down to be eventually replaced with ‘tariffed’ inventory. How high prices rise for consumers is still very much to be determined, as each automaker will handle the price puzzle differently.”
Read more: EV incentives surged to 14.8% of ATP in Feb – highest in 5+ years
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BYD just launched the first EVs based on its new Super e-platform with ultra-fast charging. The new Han L sedan and Tang L SUV can gain nearly 250 miles range in 5 minutes, and prices start at just $30,000.
Meet BYD’s new EVs with ultra-fast charging
During a launch event on April 9, BYD introduced the new EV models, claiming its engineers have “achieved the master realm of Chinese technology.”
The Han L and Tang L are the first EVs based on BYD’s 1000V Super e-platform. After unveiling the ultra-fast EV charging platform last month, BYD’s CEO, Wang Chuanfu, said to ease charging anxiety, “The ultimate solution is to make charging as quick as refueling a gasoline car.”
That solution is now here. BYD’s new Han L is available in three trims, starting at just 219,800 yuan ($30,000), lower than the pre-sale price of 270,000 yuan ($36,800).
BYD’s new electric sedan is 5,050 mm long, 1,960 mm wide, and 1,505 mm tall, or about the size of a Tesla Model S (5,021 mm long, 1,987 mm wide, and 1,431 mm tall).
All variants are powered by an 83.2 kWh BYD Blade battery, providing up to 435 miles (701 km) of CLTC driving range. Based on BYD’s 1,000V architecture, the Han L comes with two charge guns with an up to 10C charge rate.
Nearly 250 miles in just 5 minutes?
With ultra-fast charging, the electric sedan can gain 400 km (248 miles) in just five minutes. In six minutes, it can recharge from 10% to 70%, and in just 20 minutes, it can fully recharge (0% to 100%) the battery.
Like all its new EV models, the Han L is equipped with BYD’s God’s Eye smart driving assist system. It features the mid-tier “B” version and DiPilot 300.
BYD’s new electric SUV, the Tang L, is also offered in three trims. It starts at 239,800 yuan ($32,700), also below the pre-sale price of 280,000 yuan ($38,200).
The Tang L is also based on BYD’s 1,000V architecture and ultra-fast charging platform. Powered by a 100.5 kWh battery, it has a CLTC range of up to 435 miles (701 km) and can gain 230 miles (370 km) in 5 minutes. It will take about 30 minutes to go from 0% to 100%.
BYD’s electric SUV is 5,040 mm long, 1996 mm wide, and 1,760 mm tall, or slightly bigger than the new Tesla Model Y Juniper in China (4,797 mm long, 1,920 mm wide, and 1,624 mm tall).
Like the Han L EV, the electric SUV has BYD’s God’s Eye B ADAS system with DiPilot 300. Both the Han L and Tang are available as PHEVs, starting at 209,800 yuan ($28,500) and 229,800 yuan ($31,300).
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The fintech sector is rallying Wednesday following the Trump administration’s announcement of a 90-day pause on planned tariffs.
Affirm was up 20%, Toast and Block rose 13% and PayPal increased 10%.
The 90-day pause doesn’t eliminate the threat of tariffs — it just delays it. Investors are still pricing in risk, including inflation, discretionary pullbacks, hardware import costs and credit exposure.
Legacy payment networks such as Visa and Mastercard, both up 6%, continue to benefit from inflation and their structural ties to nominal GDP. These companies take a percentage of every transaction. That makes rising prices a tailwind.
“If prices are moving up for certain goods and you’re paying with a credit card, it’s actually good for the credit card companies,” said Dan Dolev, a fintech analyst at Mizuho.
Their pricing structure has historically made them resilient during inflationary periods, including recessions. The situation is less rosy for the new wave of consumer lending fintechs.
Affirm, which specializes in allowing consumers to buy now and pay later, could suffer if consumers pull back spending when the pause is lifted as a result of tariffs causing prices to rise. The San Francisco-based company could see its revenue less transaction costs margins — essentially what the company pockets after paying processing fees and customer incentives — drop more than 22% in that scenario, according to a Goldman Sachs estimate on Tuesday.
The adoption of buy now, pay later may rise as consumers hit credit limits, said SIG analyst James Friedman, but he added that the model remains untested in a downturn.
Toast, Block and Fiserv, which was up 6%, develop software used by restaurants and small businesses. Those companies could face rising hardware costs and softening demand from customers if the tariffs go through.
Meanwhile, cross-border payments — one of the most profitable segments for Visa, Mastercard and PayPal — remain under pressure as global travel slows and e-commerce flows adjust to the uncertainties of Trump’s tariffs.
Even remittance players such as Remitly and Western Union, both up 8%, could face longer-term pain if immigration pipelines slow or remittance corridors tighten under regulatory scrutiny. Similar to cross-border commerce, remittances depend on a steady flow of people and transactions, both of which remain fragile.
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