Witnessing Corbin Carroll’s superstar turn: ‘The national viewership deserves to see a player like him’
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Jesse Rogers, ESPN Staff Writer
The Arizona Diamondbacks were hosting the Kansas City Royals in May 2022, and D-backs ace Zac Gallen couldn’t help himself. He had watched a 21-year-old phenom make his presence felt over the field against his team for two straight days and wondered what it would be like to have a talent like that on his side.
“I saw Bobby Witt Jr. play and I joked with our front office, ‘Hey where’s our guy that’s young, comes up and plays like that?'” Gallen recalled. “They immediately said, ‘Just wait, he’s on his way.'”
Four months later, Corbin Carroll arrived in Arizona — and he hasn’t stopped proving his front office right since. Now, under the bright lights of the MLB postseason, the rest of the baseball world is about to see what Gallen and his D-backs teammates have seen for just over a year now.
Carroll was called up to the big leagues for the final month, getting his first taste of the majors and giving Arizona a look at what was to come when he slugged .500 with an .830 OPS in 32 games.
This season Carroll took his game to new heights. After signing an eight-year, $111 million deal during spring training, he blew past Witt’s rookie numbers and became the first player in major league history to amass at least 25 home runs, 10 triples and 50 stolen bases in a single season. Add 30 doubles and stellar outfield play to his résumé, and Carroll is the runaway favorite for National League Rookie of the Year. He has risen to the occasion early in his first postseason as well, putting up an otherworldly 1.655 OPS.
As Carroll makes his October introduction to a national audience with every hard-hit ball, dash around the bases and incredible play in the field, we asked five of his teammates to describe what it’s like to witness the emergence of MLB’s next superstar outfielder on a daily basis.
The work ethic
The first thing Carroll’s teammates pointed to was an approach to the game that far exceeds his age. The D-backs outfielder is often the first to show up and last to leave, but this goes even further: Carroll has already mastered the mental side in a way that impresses even a 16-year MLB veteran he’s sharing the clubhouse with this season.
Evan Longoria: “He’s so regimented. Everything he does, every day. He has a plan. He prepares the right way. I think of myself at that age, I had none of that. He’s had that from the time I met him. That’s part of what makes him so successful. Sticking to that routine. That’s not easy when you’re young in this game.”
Gallen: “In 2021, we were losing 110 games and he was coming to the field, watching our games. He’s learning the game while we’re losing like that. He’s so committed. Stomaching that season with us and taking what he learned into his career.”
Longoria: “Watching him develop, he overcame any adversity very quickly. He was getting breaking ball after breaking ball and then went into the cage and worked on hitting those and the slump was short lived.
The tools
Carroll was selected with the 16th overall pick in the 2019 MLB draft and rose to the No. 2 spot on ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel’s 2023 preseason prospect rankings, but in large part because of his unassuming frame — Carroll stands just 5-foot-10, 165 pounds — his dynamic skill set on the diamond still has a tendency to sneak up on you. The advice from his teammates as you take in the speedy outfielder for the first time this October? Don’t be surprised by anything he can do — in any aspect of the game.
Tommy Pham: “He’s a great player. He has every tool. I guess he could improve his arm strength? He covers so much ground. He can hit. He hits line drives everywhere. And the speed is so elite. He turns singles into doubles and doubles into triples. He’s the best baserunner in the game right now.”
Christian Walker: “Watching him play is so exciting. He’s never too far down and he never gets too high on himself. He’s just always in it. He’s so intentful in every moment. You can tell that by talking to the guy. He’s so smart and super talented. That’s a great combination. He’s the total package.”
Longoria: “When I first signed, I went over to Salt River [Arizona’s spring training facility in Scottsdale] to hit in mid-January, and he was there. The pop was electric. I knew he could run.”
The leadership
Carroll has played a grand total of 187 regular-season games and already been anointed the face of his franchise, rewarded with a nine-figure contract and put in the spotlight as the breakout star for a pop-up National League contender. That kind of adoration so quickly could go straight to a player’s head, right? Not in this case, as Carroll prefers to let his game do the talking. Well, on the baseball field, at least.
Alek Thomas: “We grew up in the system together. To see him have this year he’s having is unbelievable. He goes out there, younger than me, and acts like he’s been around for 5-6 years. He leads by example.”
Pham: “He was raised by a good family. You can obviously see that … He’s a little shy but I’ll try to joke with him in the outfield when there’s a pitching change. I’ll say things like, ‘Hey Corbin, I think that girl really likes you in the outfield stands.’ Then I’ll tell him, ‘When I was your age I was a little faster than you.’ I tell him stuff like that, [trying] to get a smile out of him.”
Thomas: “We play video games. That’s the one thing I’m better than him at. He gets so mad whenever I beat him. We go at it in Fortnite.”
The big stage
The Diamondbacks started the playoffs by first rolling into Milwaukee for a wild-card sweep of the Brewers that included two comeback victories, earning the team the nickname of “The Answerbacks,” and then handing Clayton Kershaw the worst start of his entire career in their National League Division Series-opening win. Carroll has been at the center of it all, posting an incredible .500/.571/1.083 slash line while providing his first signature October moment — and leaving his teammates wondering where this postseason ride will go next.
Thomas: “You want a moment? How about hitting that changeup 450 feet in [NL wild card] Game 1? That was a defining moment for the series because we were down.”
Longoria: “The national viewership deserves to see a player like him in big moments like this.”
The College Football Playoff selection committee will reveal its first ranking at 8 p.m. ET on Tuesday on ESPN, giving us our first look at what the 12-member group thinks about the playoff pecking order after 10 weeks.
It’s far from over, as teams still have ample opportunities to build — or bust — their résumés.
Separation, though, is starting to occur, and the Bubble Watch is tracking it for you. Teams with Would be in status below are featured in this week’s top 12 projection, a snapshot of what the selection committee’s ranking will look like when it’s released later Tuesday. For each Power 4 conference, we’ve listed teams as Last team in and First team out. These are the true bubble teams hovering around inclusion. Teams labeled Still in the mix haven’t been eliminated, but have work to do. A team that is Out will have to wait until next year.
The 12-member selection committee doesn’t always agree with the Allstate Playoff Predictor, so the following categories are based on historical knowledge of the group’s tendencies, plus what each team has done to date.
The conferences below are listed in order of the number of bids they’re expected to receive, ranked from the most to least. Check back Tuesday night after the rankings reveal show for an updated bubble watch that will reflect the selection committee’s latest ranking.
Jump to a conference:
ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten
SEC | Independent | Group of 5
Bracket
SEC
Would be in: Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss, Texas A&M
Last team in: Ole Miss. The Rebels are in a safe spot, but they’re not a lock if they don’t run the table. With remaining games against The Citadel, Florida and at rival Mississippi State, there’s no possibility of a “good loss” remaining, and historically, losing in November has been far more damaging to playoff hopes than losing earlier in the season. Ole Miss shouldn’t lose; it has at least a 72% chance of winning each of its remaining games and has the seventh-best chance in the country (43%) to win out. If an upset occurred, though, the Rebels would join the two-loss club and might not win a debate with other two-loss teams that had more statement wins — and didn’t lose to an unranked opponent. The Rebels’ remaining schedule strength is No. 56 in the country. With a second loss, Ole Miss would be banking on wins against Oklahoma, Tulane and LSU to impress the committee enough for an at-large bid.
First team out: Texas. The Longhorns got a significant boost this week in part because three teams above them fell out — Vanderbilt, Georgia Tech and Miami — but also because they earned another CFP top 25 win against the Commodores. The head-to-head win against Oklahoma also could help them with the committee. If Texas is ranked No. 11 or No. 12 by the committee, though — and the ACC and Group of 5 champions are outside of the committee’s top 12 — the Longhorns would be elbowed out during the seeding process to make room for the fourth- and fifth-highest ranked conference champions, which are guaranteed spots in the playoff.
Still in the mix: Missouri, Oklahoma, Vanderbilt. The Sooners earned a huge résumé boost with their win at Tennessee and have what should be a CFP top 25 win against Michigan. For two-loss Vandy, a close road loss to Texas isn’t an eliminator. Where the committee ranks Tennessee after its third loss will impact both of their résumés as a common opponent. Missouri’s lone losses were to Alabama and Vanderbilt, but the Tigers don’t have anything yet to compensate for those. That could change Saturday with a win against Texas A&M.
Out: Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, South Carolina, Tennessee
Big Ten
Would be in: Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon
Last team in: Oregon. The one-loss Ducks have a more challenging second half of the season, and the committee is about to learn how good this team truly is. So far, Oregon’s best win was Sept. 13 at Northwestern. The Ducks have been passing the eye test, but their opponents have a winning percentage of 47.2% — ranked No. 116 in the country. The committee will still respect the double-overtime win at Penn State, but also recognize that the Nittany Lions weren’t playing at an elite level even with James Franklin on the sideline. With road trips to Iowa and Washington — both respectable two-loss teams — and a Nov. 22 home game against USC, Oregon has a chance to further entrench itself in the top 12 or tumble out.
First team out: USC. The Trojans’ two losses were on the road to respectable teams (Illinois and Notre Dame) by a combined 12 points. Their best win was Oct. 11 against Michigan, but the Trojans could really boost their résumé this month and completely flip the script with Oregon if they can win in Eugene on Nov. 22. According to ESPN Analytics, USC has the fourth-best chance in the Big Ten to reach the playoff (17.3%), just ahead of Michigan. The only game they’re not favored to win is Nov. 22 at Oregon. If they can pull off that upset for a 10-2 finish, the committee would definitely consider the Trojans for an at-large spot.
Still in the mix: Iowa, Michigan, Washington. These teams could be ranked by the committee Tuesday night, but Michigan will probably have the shortest climb into the conversation. The head-to-head loss to USC will be a problem in both the Big Ten standings and the CFP ranking, but if USC loses again and their records are no longer comparable, it can be overcome. Then, there’s a head-to-head loss to Oklahoma. Still, Michigan has a 13.2% chance to reach the playoff, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor. The Wolverines still have a chance to beat Ohio State and earn one of the best wins in the country en route to a 10-2 finish.
Out: Illinois, Maryland, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, Wisconsin
Big 12
Would be in: BYU, Texas Tech
Last team in: Texas Tech. If Texas Tech loses to BYU on Saturday but still wins the Big 12, it’s a CFP lock. The problem is that if the Red Raiders lose a second conference game, they will need some help to reach the Big 12 championship. So, a loss to BYU could be devastating to their conference and CFP hopes. If the Red Raiders beat BYU on Saturday, but lose to the Cougars in the Big 12 championship game, Texas Tech would still have a chance at an at-large bid as the Big 12 runner-up. The Red Raiders would be able to claim a win over the eventual Big 12 champs, which would be a much-needed boost to their résumé. It would depend in part on how the game unfolded. The Cougars are the Red Raiders’ only remaining opponent with a winning record, as Texas Tech ends the season against UCF (4-4) and at West Virginia (3-6).
First team out: Utah. The Utes are in a tricky spot because their two losses are to the Big 12’s best teams — BYU and Texas Tech. Utah still has the third-best chance to reach the Big 12 title game (22.8%), but will need some help to get there. Utah’s best wins are against Arizona State and Cincinnati, but the Utes have a hard time earning an at-large bid without beating at least one of the best teams in their league.
Still in the mix: Cincinnati. The Bearcats are included here because they still have an 18% chance to reach the Big 12 title game, according to ESPN Analytics. They have only one league loss, which gives them some slim hope. Their other loss was in the season opener to Nebraska.
Out: Arizona, Arizona State, Baylor, Colorado, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, TCU, UCF, West Virginia
ACC
Would be in: Virginia
Last team in: Virginia. Like Georgia Tech, Virginia also has a road loss to NC State as its lone blemish, but it was an early four-point loss, while the Yellow Jackets lost to the Wolfpack by double digits. Virginia also has a head-to-head win against Louisville. That’s the Hoos’ best win of the season, and likely their only one against a CFP top 25 opponent. That’s why it’s unlikely Virginia is ranked in the top 12 in the initial CFP top 25. Virginia would still be in, though, if it wins the ACC even if it’s ranked outside the committee’s top 12 — just like three-loss Clemson was last year.
First team out: Louisville. The Cardinals lost at home in overtime to Virginia on Oct. 4, but earned a statement win Oct. 17 at Miami. Louisville will probably have only one win this season against a CFP top 25 team, which will make earning an at-large bid difficult. Louisville’s best shot would be to run the table, have teams above the Cardinals lose, and win the ACC. Louisville has a 10.6% chance of winning the ACC, fourth best behind Georgia Tech, Miami and Virginia.
Still in the mix: Georgia Tech, Miami. The odds of earning an at-large bid dropped significantly, but any team that has a chance to win its league will have a chance to lock up a playoff spot, and they’re both in contention to play for the ACC title. Georgia Tech has the best chance to reach the ACC championship game (72.3%), followed by Virginia (51.1%) and Miami (28.5%), according to ESPN Analytics. Georgia Tech still has the highest chance to win out (40.5%) and win the league (41.2%).
Out: Boston College, Cal, Clemson, Duke, Florida State, North Carolina, NC State, Pitt, SMU, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Independent
Would be in: Notre Dame. The playoff stars aligned for Notre Dame in Week 10, when Vanderbilt, Georgia Tech and Miami all lost, opening the door for the 6-2 Irish to move back into the top 10 after beating Boston College. The question is whether the selection committee will honor Miami’s season-opening 27-24 win against Notre Dame because they have the same record. It’s one of several tiebreakers, but not weighted, and if the committee deems the Irish the better team and not comparable now, Notre Dame can be ranked higher. Notre Dame has the best chance of any team in the country to run the table (68.3%), but the Nov. 15 trip to Pitt will be difficult. The Panthers, winners of five straight, are playing well and have a bye week to prepare for the Irish. The Irish’s playoff position will remain tenuous until the clock runs out at Stanford and they’re 10-2.
Group of 5
Would be in: Memphis. As the projected winner of the American this week, Memphis would earn a playoff spot as the committee’s fifth-highest-ranked conference champion. The Tigers’ Oct. 25 win against South Florida was critical in the league race, but the loss to 3-5 UAB is an ink stain on their résumé that can be overcome with a conference title. Memphis has at least a 57% chance to win each of its remaining games, according to ESPN Analytics.
Still in the mix: South Florida, North Texas, James Madison, San Diego State. The committee would consider South Florida’s head-to-head wins against Boise State and North Texas.
Bracket
Based on our weekly projection, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Indiana
No. 3 Alabama (SEC champ)
No. 4 Texas A&M
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 Memphis (American champ) at No. 5 Georgia
No. 11 Virginia (ACC champ) at No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 Notre Dame at No. 7 BYU (Big 12 champ)
No. 9 Texas Tech at No. 8 Oregon
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 Memphis/No. 5 Georgia winner vs. No. 4 Texas A&M
No. 11 Virginia/No. 6 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 3 Alabama
No. 10 Notre Dame/No. 7 BYU winner vs. No. 2 Indiana
No. 9 Texas Tech/No. 8 Oregon winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State
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