World

Israel-Hamas war: How did this happen?

Published

7 months ago

October 13, 2023

admin

Was this a black swan moment? Or could it have been foreseen?

Certainly the Israeli intelligence failure was astonishing.

And the extreme Hamas barbarity was not something observers ever associated with the Palestinian cause.

But behind those huge shocks, there were signals. A perfect storm was brewing. The moderate Palestinians were ignored, the Israelis were distracted and the Americans were disengaged.

Israel-Gaza latest: Israel releases graphic photos of dead babies

Three years ago I sat down with two moderate West Bank Palestinians, Hanan Ashrawi and Saeb Erekat.

Ms Ashrawi is an elder stateswoman who was at the White House in 1993 when Bill Clinton pulled the Israelis and the Palestinians together.

As Yitzhak Rabin and Yasser Arafat shook hands on the south lawn 30 years ago, Ms Ashrawi said: “The Palestinian state is emerging…”

Dr Erekat was the veteran Palestinian negotiator through every twist and turn of a peace process that never was.
Absorbing the past week’s events, I have been looking back now at my notes of our conversations.

Both warned about Hamas extremism. Both seemed defeated and despondent. They knew their decades-long drive for statehood was gone. They accepted that their own side’s intransigence had caused problems but overwhelmingly, they believed they had been undermined by America, Israel and the West.

I asked Dr Erekat what he thought his legacy would be.

“Even worse than my legacy? This is what makes me very sad… I am going to be used as an example by extremists in order to show [people], in advance, their fate if they follow in my steps… of where an attempt to recognise Israel, to renounce violence and accept the two-state solution actually led,” he told me.

Our conversation was prompted by the signing of the Abraham Accords – a Donald Trump-brokered deal which normalised relations between Israel and two Gulf nations – the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. It was widely seen as a breakthrough moment for the region and a blueprint for further Israeli-Arab integration.

There was one problem. The Palestinians had been left out of the conversation.

The Abraham Accords was an attempt to upturn diplomatic norms; to bypass the core issue (Israel-Palestine) and solve the byproduct issues (Arab-Israeli relations) in the hope that diplomatic reverse engineering would magically fix the Palestinian issue. It was a deal driven more by economic opportunities than by political realities.

For the moderate Palestinians it was another ‘dagger in the back’, as Dr Erekat put it. He had watched as his cause was consistently undermined: the moving of the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, the cutting of funding, and the failure to call out or even notice the expansion of Jewish settlements in the West Bank.

To Western and Gulf Arab leaders he said: “Congratulations… you have killed the two-state solution and you have killed any negotiations and I think you destroyed the Palestinian moderate camp; Palestinians who want peace, prosperity, human rights… God help this region.”

It was the last time we would speak. Dr Erekat died a few months later from COVID.

Hamas and Iran

In May 2021 at the end of the last Israel-Hamas war, I sat down in Gaza with the co-founder of Hamas, Mahmoud al-Zahar. It was the first time any Hamas leader had spoken since his group had launched what was then an unprecedented rocket attack on civilians in Israel.

He didn’t resemble the moderates I know in the West Bank at all. He was an Islamist. And he said Israel has no right to exist.

He also viewed moderate Palestinians as losers who had proved that negotiations with Israel were pointless.

“Practically, practically, that was proved,” the Hamas co-founder told me.

“It is not my assessment. Go and ask [Palestinian president] Mahmoud Abbas: ‘Are you now saying a two-state solution is viable or not?’… He will say no… The Israelis are not going to accept a two-state solution. You are now asking me to practise a failed process?”

Across Gaza, Iran’s influence is deep. On my last visit there, posters lined the streets of Iran’s military commander Qasem Soleimani, assassinated on the orders of then-president Mr Trump.

It’s been clear for years that the leadership in Tehran has moulded Hamas extremism and leveraged the Palestinian people’s hopelessness. It is all part of its axis of influence that swings through Iraq, Syria and Lebanon, down to Gaza.

Israel’s caged enemy

In Israel, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warns frequently of the danger Iran poses – but he usually frames it in the nuclear context – the prospect of Iran obtaining nuclear weapons.

With Gaza, his style (his detractors would call it hubris) allowed him to think he could contain Hamas and limit Iranian influence – to his advantage.

Hamas was the enemy in a cage. Mr Netanyahu used the situation as a political tool to remind everyone why the land can never be shared.

More moderate Israelis, like former prime minister Ehud Olmert, who I also spoke to, and who advocates for Jewish settlement dismantlement and genuine engagement with Palestinians, were pushed aside.

Then, Mr Netanyahu prompted an internal crisis (also through his own hubris?) – his controversial legal reforms ignited the country with massive protests. The consequence was a temporary breakdown in Israeli unity. Even the top brass military threatened to resign.

It was against this backdrop that Hamas struck. The enemy in the cage got out. And it was stronger than Israel could ever have imagined.

American disengagement

Above all that – America tried to disengage with the Middle East years ago. Forever wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and a need to focus on China and, latterly, Russia, forced a new approach – helicopter diplomacy.

The plan was that historic normalisation deals between Israel and the Gulf Arabs would reshape the region and allow America to step back. If it had worked, it would have been a game changer.

But the Palestinians were not part of that conversation. They didn’t want to be without the commitment of statehood, and they weren’t encouraged to be because everyone knew that statehood commitment could never be delivered.

Mr Netanyahu’s politics had made it an impossibility.

In speeches, US President Joe Biden’s top advisers hardly mentioned Israel-Palestine. Even this week as National Security Council spokesman John Kirby countered my assertion that America had disengaged, he listed Yemen, Iraq, Syria, Islamic State and Saudi Arabia but didn’t mention Israel-Palestine until I prompted him.

“You are right, I did not and I should have,” Mr Kirby said. “… because we have been continuing to want to pursue a two-state solution.”

The truth is no one really believes that a two-state solution is achievable. Western diplomats have been quietly telling me this for several years.

Click to subscribe to the Sky News Daily wherever you get your podcasts

And so the region’s weakest link was ignored and it ignited.

In Iran, they are no doubt delighted that a normalisation deal between their enemy, Israel, and Saudi Arabia is now in the freezer.

Mr Biden is now desperately trying to take control of the situation; to influence the remoulding of the Middle East that we are seeing.

The question is, can he? It feels out of control now.

World

Mother of Australian brothers killed on Mexico surfing trip says world ‘a darker place’

Published

9 hours ago

May 8, 2024

admin

Mother of Australian brothers killed on Mexico surfing trip says world 'a darker place'

The mother of two Australian surfers allegedly shot dead by thieves in Mexico says “the world has become a darker place for us” after their deaths.

The bodies of brothers Callum and Jake Robinson and American Jack Carter Rhoad were found south of Ensenada in northern Mexico last week, after the men went missing on the weekend of 27 April.

The trio, who were on a surfing trip near the city, were shot dead by thieves who wanted their truck’s tyres, according to prosecutors, and their bodies dumped in a remote 15m-deep (50ft) well.

Debra Robinson delivered a tribute to her sons at a beach in San Diego on Tuesday.

“Our hearts are broken and the world has become a darker place for us,” she said. “They were young men enjoying their passion of surfing together.

“Jake’s passion was surfing, and it was no coincidence that many of the hospitals that he worked in were close to surfing beaches.”

“Live bigger, shine brighter, and love harder in their memory,” she said, and thanked Australian officials and supporters there and in the United States.

Mrs Robinson, who also paid tribute to Jack Carter Rhoad, said her sons’ bodies, or their ashes, will eventually be taken back to Australia.

“Now it’s time to bring them home to families and friends,” she said. “And the ocean waits in Australia.”

Prosecutors have identified three people as potential suspects, two of whom were caught with methamphetamines. One of them, a woman, had one of the victims’ mobile phones when she was caught, they said.

Prosecutors said the two were being held pending drug charges but continue to be suspects in the killings.

A third man was arrested on charges of a crime equivalent to kidnapping, but that was before the bodies were found. It was unclear when or if he might face more charges.

The third man was believed to have directly participated in the killings, prosecutors said.

33-year-old Callum, Jake, 30, and their friend Jack, also 30, had posted photos on social media of isolated beaches shortly before they went missing.

Callum had reportedly been living in the US to try to become a professional lacrosse player, while Jake, a doctor, had flown out to visit him two weeks ago.

Thieves likely saw their truck and tents and wanted their tyres but the men probably resisted, said prosecutor Maria Elena Andrade Ramírez.

She said the bodies were taken to “a site that is extremely hard to get to” in Baja California state.

The well, near where their truck and tent were found, also contained a fourth body that had been there much longer, she added.

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said on Tuesday he had requested an opportunity to speak to Mrs Robinson and her husband Martin.

“This is a terrible tragedy and my heart goes out to them,” Mr Albanese said.

World

Trump trial: This was Donald with his trousers down – no doubt

Published

9 hours ago

May 8, 2024

admin

Trump trial: This was Donald with his trousers down - no doubt

There are moments, more than others, that scream the humiliation of it all.

Take this, before Tuesday’s proceedings got underway. “No descriptions of genitalia or anything but it’s important to elicit that she had sex with him.”

It was the prosecution’s assurance prior to questioning Stormy Daniels after Donald Trump’s lawyers had objected, in advance, to her testifying to the details of sexual acts.

It would be that kind of day in this kind of trial.

Trump trial as it happened: Stormy Daniels accused of car park ‘threat’ lie

In a dingy New York courtroom, this was the president and the porn star, together again, in a reunion most reductive for Mr Trump.

He might have secured guarantees on anatomical detail but, from the moment the court heard “The People call Stormy Daniels” this was Mr Trump with his trousers down, no doubt.

Ms Daniels told her story, of growing up in Baton Rouge, Louisiana, the daughter of a single mother. She edited her high school newspaper, enjoyed ballet dancing and horses and had ambitions to be a technician.

By the time she met Mr Trump, aged 27, we learned she was an adult film actress and director, star of the likes of 40-Year-Old Virgin and Knocked Up.

By her telling, the Trump encounter was more Austin Powers – the penthouse suite, the satin pyjamas and the spanking with a rolled-up magazine.

“Bullshit,” Mr Trump was heard to mutter. His problem is that this kind of bullshit sticks.

Whatever his lawyers’ protestations about Ms Daniels’ credibility – and there are holes – that’s hardly the headline for a watching, voting, public.

What will they take from court to the polling booth in November? Quite apart from the imagery, what message does it send to key demographics?

An affair with a porn star, whilst married, is a poor fit with the principles of evangelicals, so critical to the Trump vote in 2016. Suburban women might also reel from this tawdry peek backstage at the presidency.

How much will Mr Trump worry? About $130,000 (£103,000) worth. It is the premium he paid to stop the story coming out in the first place.

Sadly, for him, the insurance policy has run out.

World

Eurovision facing controversy over contestants and political statements – as protests around event expected

Published

9 hours ago

May 8, 2024

admin

Eurovision facing controversy over contestants and political statements - as protests around event expected

The Eurovision Song Contest is already facing controversy over performers making political statements ahead of the big event in Sweden at the weekend.

Bambie Thug, who will represent Ireland, has criticised organisers for asking the performer to alter a pro-Palestinian message before their performance in the first semi-final last night.

Meanwhile, the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) has put out a statement expressing “regret” that former Swedish contestant Eric Saade, who is reportedly of Palestinian origin, was wearing a keffiyeh – a traditional scarf that has become a symbol of support – tied around his wrist as he sang.

He is not competing this year, but opened the first Eurovision semi-final show in his home country ahead of the finalists being chosen.

Eurovision bills itself as a non-political event and organisers have resisted calls to boycott Israel, sparking protests.

Israel’s Eden Golan will perform her song Hurricane in the second semi-final on Thursday, with bookmakers placing her among the top 10 most likely to win the competition.

Security is being ramped up in the Swedish host city of Malmo, which expects to welcome some 100,000 Eurovision fans – along with thousands of pro-Palestinian protesters, with demonstrations against the Israel-Hamas war planned on Thursday and Saturday.

After making it through to the final with their song Doomsday Blue, Ireland’s Bambie Thug told reporters at a news conference that they had been forced to change writing painted on their body ahead of the semi-final performance.

The 31-year-old singer said the painted script in Ogham – an early Medieval alphabet – had translated to ‘ceasefire and freedom’.

“It was very important for me because I’m pro justice and pro peace,” they said. “Unfortunately, I had to change those messages today to ‘crown the witch’ only (which was an) order from the EBU.”

A spokesperson for the EBU said: “The writing seen on Bambie Thug’s body during dress rehearsals contravened contest rules that are designed to protect the non-political nature of the event.

“After discussions with the Irish delegation, they agreed to change the text for the live show.”

In a separate statement about Saade’s opening performance, an EBU spokesperson said the organisation “regrets” that he chose to wear the keffiyeh pattern material and “chose to compromise the non-political nature of the event”.

Elsewhere, UK entrant Olly Alexander also performed at the event to showcase his song, Dizzy, although he is already through to the final as the UK is one of the “big five” Eurovision donors.

The Years & Years singer has found himself facing criticism from some who called for him to withdraw over Israel’s inclusion amid the ongoing war.

He addressed the controversy in a documentary following him as he prepares for the show, describing some comments he and other contestants have received as “very extreme”.

In April, Eurovision organisers condemned the abuse and harassment of contestants over Israel’s inclusion in the competition as “unacceptable and totally unfair”.

Speaking on Sky’s Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips, EBU deputy director general Jean Philip De Tender defended Israel’s inclusion.

“We do understand the concerns and deeply held views around the war in the Middle East,” he said.

“The song contest is a music event organised and co-produced by 37 public broadcasters, it’s not a competition between nations or governments.

“Our governing bodies reviewed the participation of Kan [Israel’s public broadcasting corporation] and found that they met all of the competing rules.”