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Hockey. Hockey? Not baseball? Not soccer? Hockey?!?

For a second, Howard Gentry allowed himself to be surprised upon learning that Tennessee State University would be the first Historically Black College and University to have a hockey program.

Then Gentry remembered: Being the first HBCU to do something unexpected is what allowed TSU to even be in this position at all.

“Now to see hockey come here? To some, it might be that thought of ‘Black people don’t play hockey.’ But the truth is they do. That’s where it started,” said Gentry, a former TSU athletic director. “I know the history. And even if people thought Black people didn’t play hockey, they do now. … I see us having the chance to be as successful as the other dreams and visions that were made true by those administrators from the past.”

In the two months since TSU’s announcement, the school has made what it feels is gradual progress in the next steps of its plan.

Nick Guerriero, the assistant athletic director for communications and creative content at TSU, said the school recently finished interviewing for their director of club hockey role. Initially, TSU was going to hire one person, but decided to make it a two-person job. One will be charged with handling the majority of the work on the fundraising side, while the other will manage the recruitment side of building the program. Guerriero said the goal is to have the hires in place by mid-October.

Guerriero outlined how there are several moving parts to the school’s tentative plan. Their goal is to start with a club program that will begin play in the 2024-25 season. In 2025-26, TSU will have a “hybrid season” in which it will seek to play a mix of club teams and Division I teams with the belief that TSU will be a full-fledged D-I program by the 2026-27 campaign.

Guerriero said there are still a few items that need to be sorted out. Such as who TSU will play against. He’s continuing to have discussions with club hockey entities such as the American Collegiate Hockey Association (the ACHA) along with the AAU, which recently took over what was previously known as the College Hockey Federation (CHF).

Playing against ACHA schools would give TSU a chance to follow the path taken by schools such as Arizona State before moving up to Division I. Playing against CHF schools would allow TSU the opportunity to play against club teams from schools their fans would be more familiar with such as Auburn, Georgia and Vanderbilt, which is in Nashville.

Guerriero said TSU has not petitioned the NCAA about going D-I, with the intention that TSU will do so at some point.

He said TSU plans to eventually add a women’s program as well, but creating a men’s hockey program means the school must first add another women’s team in addition to remain Title IX compliant. Currently, TSU is Title IX compliant with Guerriero explaining that even when TSU adds a women’s hockey program, it would still need to have another non-hockey women’s sport in order to remain compliant.

Guerriero said he is aware those discussions have taken place in a few closed-door meetings.

“We don’t want to rush into things, especially being the first HBCU,” Guerriero said. “You don’t want to rush into something and then if it fails, it is that, ‘I told you so.’ It has to be done right when it is going to be the first. I think that’s the other thing too. Everyone has this microscope on HBCUs. It is so tightly magnified that if they do something wrong, it gets blown up 25 times more than if a mid-major school did the same thing.”


MIKE SNEE IS the executive director of College Hockey Inc., a nonprofit that was created to grow the collegiate game. If there’s a college or university that is looking to start a hockey program, they’ve surely run across Snee.

College Hockey offers interested schools the chance to do a feasibility study. The study itself, which is paid for by the NHL and NHL Players’ Association, assesses if colleges and universities are in a position to add a men’s or women’s program or both.

Snee said that TSU’s decision to do a feasibility study was “totally unique” because there were no HBCUs that offered a hockey program.

“We previously contacted different HBCUs and knew they had access to a building for club hockey and had a contact there. We became aware [of TSU] because of the Predators when it came to Tennessee State,” Snee said. “The Predators became aware that we had this idea of being deliberate about pursuing HBCUs and choosing of the schools when it came to their markets and facilities. The Predators said they worked closely with a local HBCU, Tennessee State, which is not NCAA ready but it is club hockey ready.”

Snee said TSU athletic director Dr. Mikki Allen was beyond receptive. He said Allen’s work in getting former Tennessee Titans running back Eddie George as TSU’s head football coach, plus the team being the first HBCU to play Notre Dame, proved the school had a vision.

Snee said in discussions with other HBCUs, the schools were not dismissive but they presented reasons why it might not work.

The feasibility study mainly focuses on the financial impact of adding hockey. Questions such as can schools account for adding internal scholarships? Or how much would it cost their athletic department to hire a full coaching and support staff? The study also examines a school’s realistic chances to join a conference, a factor that has become an even greater priority within the current collegiate landscape.

According to Snee, the only question Allen asked about adding hockey at TSU was: “Why not?”

“In a literal sense, [TSU] is a Division I athletics program,” Snee said. “Therefore, they can add any sport that they want that Division I sponsors. … Arizona State is a good comparable for what we are talking about. They decided to add hockey. They are a D-I program. Tennessee State can play D-I hockey when they decide they’re ready.”

Snee has previously said any school that wants to add hockey must first figure out how to clear the facilities hurdle. Even then, it’s something of a nuanced process. Snee said the objective is to build an arena that holds between 3,000 and 4,000 people while also having the necessary locker room space for both the home and away teams.

There are behind-the-scenes items that can help in recruiting, such as a player lounge, a team space and a weight training area. There’s also what Snee described as the “front of house” amenities, such as in-game production, scoreboards and having an overall look that could work toward the path of joining a conference.

Snee said the price tag to build that type of facility is around $75 million.

Not every college hockey program, however, plays at a venue of that size. There are currently more than a combined 30 active men’s and women’s programs playing at the D-I level that play their home games in buildings that hold less than 3,000 fans. Programs such as Lindenwood University and Long Island University play games at community rinks that are owned and operated by NHL teams.

What does all this mean for TSU?

College hockey teams typically have a Friday/Saturday schedule with the rare Thursday or Sunday game. Snee said Bridgestone Arena, home of the Predators, would not work because of the NHL schedule, live entertainment acts, plus the venue being too large as it seats more than 17,000 for hockey.

“Maybe they play one game a year there and bring in a big opponent where they make a big deal out of it,” Snee said. “But all the sheets of ice in Nashville are in a community where there are 800 seats on one side or it is where the Preds play, which is [just under] 18,000 seats.”

Guerriero said TSU administrators have talked about building an arena as part of the school’s 10-year plan. It’s possible it could be a multipurpose complex that would be the home for TSU’s football program, men’s and women’s basketball programs and hockey programs.

In the interim, the plan would be for TSU to play at least its first season in different rinks around the Nashville market. Guerriero said there are city-owned rinks such as Centennial Iceplex and the three Ford Ice Centers in the metro area that are owned by the Predators. He also mentioned the newly built F&M Bank Arena in Clarksville, which is a nearly hourlong drive from TSU’s campus.

Snee estimated some of the local Nashville rinks may hold around 800 fans while the F&M Bank Arena website says it holds 5,000 for hockey.

“We may be utilizing that as well on top of the potential of Bridgestone,” Guerriero said. “I hate to say we are going to be the traveling circus to build a fanbase. But we feel it could be important toward getting more fans rather than being at one facility.”


THE IDEA OF TSU adding hockey had been talked about before. It was known they had done a feasibility study in 2021.

Almost two years had passed when news of an announcement broke the night before the NHL draft in Nashville. Guerriero said that only four people at TSU knew about the announcement with the rest of the athletic department finding out just before the news broke on social media.

Keeping a secret was not the issue for Guerriero. His concerns stemmed from the fear of what could come from TSU’s announcement. He was worried that the news might not be welcomed by current students and/or alumni who might have wanted the school to add a different sport. He thought about those outside of TSU who might have been inclined to voice that hockey didn’t belong at a HBCU.

“I kept sitting there before bed thinking this is going to get bad and then when the news broke about our announcement, it was the greatest thing in the world,” Guerriero said. “You think this could be bad because you’re going to get blown up on social media with people saying how dumb they think this is. Then you see the reaction. It was great and it was awesome. … That day, it was ‘The Land of Golden Sunshine’ as we call it here at Tennessee State.”

He said the positive response to the announcement has created even more optimism around the program. Guerriero did not have specifics about how much TSU has generated in its first round of fundraising, but he said the school’s goal is to raise between $10 million and $20 million.

With the school having its homecoming this weekend, Guerriero said there have been discussions about the potential of TSU having a home hockey game as part of next year’s homecoming plans. Guerriero also shared how a handful of prospective parents and players traveled to TSU for this year’s homecoming so they could see the campus while also experiencing everything that comes with homecoming weekend.

Gentry, who was TSU’s AD for three years, said fundraising requires numerous investors and that it must be sustained over several decades to have long-term success. This led Gentry to joke that he would also not be mad if a certain TSU alum were to get involved.

The TSU alum in question? Oprah Winfrey.

“We have to have many big investments for this to be successful and sustainable,” Gentry said. “That being said — Oprah, if you are listening, we could still use the help!”

Overseeing TSU’s fundraising efforts is one of the responsibilities the school’s director of club hockey will handle. The person hired will also be in charge of items such as community partnerships, managing day-to-day operations and student-athlete recruitment.

Guerriero said it is possible that whomever is hired to be the director of club hockey operations could also be the first coach in TSU’s history. He somewhat joked about how he’s trying to hire what would be the contemporary version of Lou Lamoriello, now the general manager of the New York Islanders, when he served in numerous roles at Providence College.

“I’ve already got seven to eight people on volunteer contracts who are helping us,” Guerriero said. “That’s the great part. People just want to be involved. Nobody has come to me and said, ‘I need this’ to get involved. The hockey community and professional hockey community have been tremendous with giving their time and their brains to talk through some of these things.”

Speaking about items such as potential venues, the director of club hockey operations opening and fundraising makes it clear TSU’s venture into hockey is real. It also prompts those talking about TSU to get into why they feel this must work.

Hockey at all levels has struggled to make itself more inviting when compared to other sports. While visible but not openly discussed, the conversation around race and racism in hockey started becoming more common over the past few years.

Not that TSU adding a college hockey program is expected to solve all of the sport’s challenges when it comes to race and racism. But the visibility of a HBCU that was initially named the Tennessee Agricultural & Industrial State Normal School for Negroes in a city that is more than 27% Black having a hockey program represents something that’s never been seen before.

“Everybody’s got these great stories and histories and nobody knows it,” Gentry said. “But when this hockey program starts making its mark, people are going to start paying attention. It’s a chance to understand that HBCUs are able to and have always been to provide the same quality programming in athletics and academics as any other school can provide.”

Gentry has an affinity for TSU’s history because it is so personal. His father, Howard C. Gentry Sr., was once the athletic director, coach and a professor at TSU whose name is on the building where the men’s and women’s basketball teams play.

Understanding why there is a strong sense of optimism about hockey succeeding at TSU requires looking back at some of that history. Gentry shares stories of how Walter S. Davis, who was the second president in TSU history, told Gentry’s father upon hiring him that he wanted to see TSU win not just Black national championships in football, but national championships against predominantly white institutions — PWIs — when the United States was segregated.

That vision gave the world the Tigerbelles — the all-Black female track team that represented the United States at the 1956 Olympics. They won bronze that year, only to return in 1960 and win several gold medals. Three of them belonged to Wilma Rudolph at a time when women, let alone Black women, were not encouraged to participate in sports.

It set the stage for TSU to be the first HBCU to play in a PWI conference, the Ohio Valley Conference. The school would eventually win conference titles in numerous sports while having a football program that produced Ed “Too Tall” Jones, who became the first player from a HBCU program to be the No. 1 pick of an NFL draft.

Snee shares that optimism while also remaining cautious. He’s caught in the place between not wanting TSU to feel pressure while also understanding that what they do could lead to more HBCUs starting programs, whether they be club or D-I.

“If we check back and there are four HBCUs and they are offering club hockey, that’s a cool thing,” Snee said. “But within that, what can turn a solid base knock up the middle into a grand slam? What if we check back in 10 years and 13 HBCUs are offering hockey. Seven of them are offering various club programs, four are offering D-I and there’s two more that are considering transitioning. That is better than a single.”

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Wetzel: A defense of the CFP committee? It’s not perfect, but nothing in this sport can be

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Wetzel: A defense of the CFP committee? It's not perfect, but nothing in this sport can be

The purpose of the College Football Playoff selection committee is to sort through the unsortable — deciding between two teams of similar accomplishment.

This sport is a spectacular mess, of course, famously and belovedly so. The FBS level has 136 teams playing 12 regular-season games competing for one championship. The schedules are disparate, even within the current oversize “conferences.”

No one would design such a thing. Big schools. Small schools. State schools. Religious institutions. Even three military academies. From L.A. (Los Angeles) to L.A. (Lower Alabama). It’s glorious.

If a proper computer formula exists to figure out who should or shouldn’t be in a playoff, none has earned the trust of the sport. College football, after all, ain’t much for college.

So, it has a selection committee — 13 people who make the final, difficult, no-truly-correct-answer call. Their thanks comes from a barrage of hate courtesy of whomever they didn’t choose.

That there is controversy, hard feelings and anger doesn’t mean the system isn’t working.

It’s a sign that it is.

A sport that used to leave unbeaten teams out of the title game is now arguing about 10-2 and 9-3 clubs. A postseason that was once a collection of mostly meaningless exhibition bowl games designed as tourism campaigns is now anchored by a 12-team, 11-game free-for-all.

At least half a dozen teams must believe they can actually win the national title. Maybe more. Four playoff games will be staged on campuses, not at antiseptic NFL stadiums. The title will be settled on the field. This is the good stuff.

It’s why everyone needs to exhale for a moment.

Don’t let the pursuit of (unachievable) perfection get in the way of progress. This is always going to be an imperfect operation.

Would it be better if the ACC’s tiebreaker system didn’t malfunction and both Miami (as ACC champ) and Notre Dame (as an at-large selection) were in the field? Of course. But the presence of James Madison and some Fighting Irish disappointment shouldn’t cause anyone to take a wrecking ball to this entire enterprise.

College athletics is famous for knee-jerk decisions that it comes to regret. It too often makes policy via emotional swings and selfish reasoning without vision for the future.

Leagues get blown up (or expanded) for basic cable subscriptions (which are already dwindling). Legal cases are waged on the idea NIL will decrease competitive balance (Indiana is currently ranked No. 1). Congress is lobbied with hysterics that the sport needs “saving” (all while interest, revenue and television ratings rise).

The latest overreaction is to kill off this 2-year-old playoff for a bigger model that will supposedly be controversy-free (impossible) — one with 24 teams, at least, or with four automatic bids to certain conferences or who knows what else.

The committee is the punching bag. Subjectivity is the wedge issue. Conspiracies are everywhere. Emotions are running hot.

Look, there is one sure way for major programs to get into this thing: win your conference. If not, then you get into the knife fight that is the at-large selection process. Anything can happen. Criteria can shift. Decisions can seem unfair or arbitrary.

If, like Notre Dame, you find more overall value in independence, then this is your trade-off. It isn’t going to work as you wish every time.

Are there improvements and tweaks that can be made? Of course.

The committee should no longer release weekly rankings during the back half of the season. A single verdict should come out at the end. The current setup is good for content (including here at ESPN, which broadcasts the weekly rankings), but it undermines the credibility of the process. The week-to-week contradictions are maddening and, even worse, can box in the committee’s final decision.

Bloated leagues could return to divisions in an effort to create scheduling structure or find other ways to fix tiebreakers (ahem, ACC).

Two rounds of home games would increase the importance of seeding and bring more campuses and local communities into the fold. That would serve fans and families rather than bowl directors.

Conference championship weekend could even be eliminated altogether; if Alabama can get beaten soundly and not drop, then was it even a real game? (And yes, BYU, we see you.) That would move the playoff up a week and allow for the semifinals on New Year’s Day and a title game in early January rather than during the heart of the NFL postseason.

Of course, ending conference title games would require leaving money on the table, not to mention unwinding complicated media and hosting contracts, so it’s a heavy lift.

The minor tweaks are fine, though, as long as the regular season continues to matter. That has to be the North Star. This committee maintained that by valuing Miami’s Week 1 victory over Notre Dame. Yes, it should have made that determination weeks earlier, but it’s never too late to do the right thing.

A playoff that gets so big where results don’t matter very much or, as the Big Ten proposal would have, where Michigan and Iowa are still alive via play-in rounds forever alters how the sport is played.

Better to have one or two bitter 10-2 teams out there at the end.

Better to have cries and screams and a little bit of infuriation.

Better to have those 13 people in a meeting room making a decision.

Because in this wonderfully chaotic and disorganized sport, the selection committee, to channel some Winston Churchill, might indeed be the worst system ever, except for all the others.

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The NHL’s best this week: Terry Ryan and hockey dreams

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The NHL's best this week: Terry Ryan and hockey dreams

Terry Ryan is living out a hockey player’s dream. It’s just not the exact one he grew up dreaming.

One of the stars of the hit show “Shoresy,” the hockey-centered comedy that has acted as equal parts love letter to the sport and cultural tastemaker, Ryan will join his castmates (all of whom are also hockey players achieving various levels of success) on Dec. 10 at UBS Arena on Long Island as part of the Shoresy Fall Classic, a multistop tour across Canada and the United States where the cast plays games typically against the alumni of that NHL team.

“Aaron Asham is one of my best friends in the world. I played junior and pro with him,” Ryan said of the retired 15-year NHL veteran who played four seasons with the New York Islanders. “So I’m looking forward to that.”

The pace of play is higher than most people think heading in, the 48-year-old noted, adding “we’re not out there trying to hurt each other or anything, but it’s a step up from a regular shinny game.”

“It’s a very unique experience. I don’t know if I’ve ever come across anything like it whereby the fans are cheering for both teams,” he said. “Even though we lose — we’ve been losing most of the games — we’re not getting blown out, and I think people walk away with an appreciation that, you know, we’re all actors in the show, but we’re all hockey players. We’re a pretty good team. We hang in there.”

The event, which also includes a Q&A with the cast, was sparked by the massive popularity of the show, which will release its fifth season in Canada on Christmas Day and on Hulu in early 2026 (its parent show, “Letterkenny,” wrapped up with 12 seasons and 81 episodes).

As for Ryan, he was the No. 8 pick in the 1995 draft of the Montreal Canadiens, and achieved his dream of playing in the NHL — but played only eight games with the Habs. He then spent six seasons with different AHL teams after an ankle injury brought his NHL dreams to a halt.

The Newfoundland native continued to play in various leagues while pursuing another career — film and television. But not as an actor.

“I got an arts degree in folklore and English, and within that there’s a film studies certificate. I worked on a crew, I mean like location [scouting], production assistant, AD. I was like ‘jump how high’ for six years,” he said. “Then I spilled over, I did some stunts, and then because I have no tooth, I got to play some parts like, you know, British soldiers, crackheads, pimps, drug dealers, stuff like that. … My entrance into this world was a lot different than the other guys [on the Shoresy cast].”

Eventually, Ryan did cross paths with one Hollywood star, who took him under his wing.

“There’s a show on Netflix called ‘Frontier.’ I was on crew, I was waiting to get in the union. I met Jason Momoa. He came along with [producers] and gave me a chance,” Ryan said. “I had no tooth, Momoa said, ‘Keep the tooth out. I can get you some stunt gigs.’

“Five seconds into the show, I’m the very first face you see. It’s a British soldier begging for his life, and I’ve got no tooth obviously … they got me that role. That’s how I got in.”

Ryan and Momoa also shared a love for hockey. Ryan taught Momoa and members of the crew how to skate (in Momoa’s case, the finer points).

“I don’t know how many times we went out on the ice, maybe 100 times,” Ryan recalled.

Ryan also taught Momoa the intricacies of a hockey fight.

“When we first [fought], I just shook him and beat him in a fight,” Ryan said. “I said, ‘It’s all about balance, man. You can be as big as you want.’

“Anyway, he laughed … trust me, if he hit me with one, it wouldn’t matter. [Momoa] wanted to get in a hockey fight [in the second season of ‘Frontier’], so, like, I’m [wearing] the British red coat, and he pulls the thing over, and he simulates a hockey fight.”

Momoa helped Ryan get several stunt gigs and even hired Ryan as his assistant for a period of time. Eventually, “Letterkenny” called with the role of Ted Hitchcock, a lovable hockey player from Newfoundland with a penchant for “martoonies,” which led to “Shoresy.”

And now, the show and cast enjoy a level of success that allows them to play in hockey games against NHL players across North America, with thousands of people cheering them from the stands. In a very circuitous way, a version of Ryan’s hockey dreams did come true.

Jump ahead:
Games of the week
What I loved this weekend
Hart Trophy candidates
Social post of the week
Stick taps

Biggest games of the week

I’m getting into “watch every Colorado Avalanche game” territory. I saw them live for the first time this season at Madison Square Garden on Saturday, and it was incredibly fun. Nathan MacKinnon had a pair of goals, including a nasty backhand overtime winner under the crossbar that he made look absolutely effortless.

play

1:08

Nathan MacKinnon skates through Rangers defense to score dazzling OT winner

Nathan MacKinnon makes a sweet move and scores on the backhand to give the Avalanche an overtime win.

We’ve been focusing a lot on the lack of regulation losses for Denver’s team — only two so far this season. But we can now start keeping an eye on points in general, because the Avs are are currently on pace for 58 wins and 134 points this season.

That would be second-most points by any team in a season in NHL history, behind the 2022-23 Bruins (135).

If things keep rolling, the Avalanche have a chance to make history. They have build a solid foundation for it. They have the players. Could they do it?

Weeks in mid-December can sort of fly under the radar in the course of the regular season, but these are the ones where teams chasing history work in the shadows and build. The Avs visit the Nashville Predators on Tuesday, host the Florida Panthers on Thursday and then have the Preds at home Saturday. It could be a three-win week for the NHL’s premier team.


Other key games this week

Monday, 9 p.m. | ESPN+


Tuesday, 7 p.m. | ESPN+


Tuesday, 7 p.m. | ESPN+


Thursday, 7 p.m. | ESPN+


Thursday, 7 p.m. | ESPN


Thursday, 7 p.m. | ESPN+


Thursday, 8 p.m. | ESPN+


Saturday, 7 p.m. | ESPN+


Saturday, 8 p.m. | ESPN+


Sunday, 6 p.m. | ESPN+


What I loved this weekend

The Athletic’s Murat Ates wrote a story about the mental health journey of Winnipeg Jets forward Gabriel Vilardi. The story, which includes raw and honest reflection from Vilardi, is equal parts fascinating and emotional. This quote from Vilardi was particularly humbling and something that certainly many athletes probably go through during a game:

“For me, negative self-talk is not just panic attacks; it’s something that I deal with a lot. And it drags on. It starts with one play. Then it’s like, ‘Oh s—, I’ve got to make up for that play.’ Then it drags on to three shifts because you’re still thinking in your head that you’ve got to make up for it. Next thing you know, it’s a period and it’s like, ‘F—, I’ve only got two periods left.’ I was in my head the whole first period.”

Sports psychologist Dr. Alicia Naser — who works with NHL players such as Seattle Kraken forward Shane Wright and Calgary Flames center John Beecher along with other professional athletes — has helped to normalize the discussions, particular through her social media content, which includes bite-sized wisdom and actionable items related to mental health and performance that can benefit anyone watching or reading.


Hart Trophy contenders if the season ended today

Nathan MacKinnon times three. That’s it.

But really, MacKinnon obviously remains on the list. He’s currently on pace for 70 goals and 140 points this season; if he reaches those totals, he’d be the fifth player in NHL history to do it, joining Wayne Gretzky (who did it four times), Mario Lemieux (twice), Bernie Nicholls (1988-89) and Phil Esposito (1970-71). MacKinnon would also have the first 70-goal season since Teemu Selanne and Alexander Mogilny did it in 1992-93 (both with 76 goals).

As for the second contender, that goes to Connor McDavid. He pulled into second place in the points race, now six back of MacKinnon with 42; he also leads the league in assists (28).

Indeed, this might be the week it becomes a two-player race. For that reason, I’m giving one more nod in this section to both Connor Bedard and Macklin Celebrini, because one (or both) might be unseated as early as next week. I kind of hope I’m wrong though.


Social media post of the week

It definitely isn’t the 6-7 cam at MSG, or Sam Bennett taking part in the trend.

My choice this week is new hockey fan Big Z on TikTok. It feels as if every few years someone goes viral (at least in the hockey bubble) for finding out how exciting hockey is. It’s fun to live vicariously through someone who is experiencing the same joy we all once did as hockey fans.

Big Z’s joy over seeing Alex Ovechkin and Dustin Byfuglien deliver checks, or lamenting a Red Wings shootout loss (but still saying that he needs to buy a jersey), is fantastic.


Stick taps

The Washington Capitals have partnered with WWE to release a limited edition collab for John Cena’s final WWE match before he retires, taking place Saturday. The shirt features Cena wearing a Caps hat holding a towel in his iconic pose that reads “Let’s Go Caps.”

I’m all for more partnerships like this. City-specific merchandise is on the rise and often becomes a collector’s item. WWE also has championship belts specific to teams across multiple sports, including the NHL.

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What Buster Olney, Jeff Passan are hearing about Schwarber’s suitors, top free agents and blockbuster trades

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What Buster Olney, Jeff Passan are hearing about Schwarber's suitors, top free agents and blockbuster trades

MLB’s winter meetings begin Monday in Orlando, Florida, signaling the time when baseball’s offseason activity is likely to take off.

What’s the latest on free agent hitters, including coveted sluggers Kyle Schwarber and Kyle Tucker? Will Framber Valdez find a new home now that fellow top free agent pitcher Dylan Cease is off the board? What’s the latest on a trade market featuring stars such as Ketel Marte and Steven Kwan? And which teams could surprise the sport by making a big splash in Florida?

Here is the latest intel Buster Olney and Jeff Passan are hearing on the players, teams and themes that will rule this year’s meetings.


Last year’s winter meetings were all about Juan Soto — is there one free agent or theme on everyone’s mind going into the meetings this year?

Olney: Some agents and execs are saying the money for free agents is generally locked down. There are outliers, of course — the Toronto Blue Jays are doing their thing, and the Pittsburgh Pirates, A’s and Miami Marlins are all angling for a We Are Trying posture.

The very elite guys, such as Kyle Schwarber, will get their money. But there are early indications that a lot of the teams that are traditionally aggressive might be more conservative this winter, perhaps because of the looming labor situation — and that could lead to more trades, rather than investments in free agents, as teams look to plug holes.

Passan: When does the Kyle Schwarber dam break? Several teams’ fortunes — from Philadelphia to Cincinnati to Pittsburgh to Boston to Baltimore to the New York Mets — depend on where Schwarber goes. The belief among teams is that it will take five years to secure the 32-year-old, and once that happens — perhaps sometime during the meetings — teams will start pivoting, and the action will pick up demonstrably.


Which top free agent hitter is most likely to sign during the winter meetings?

Olney: In recent winters, the Blue Jays wanted to spend big and couldn’t entice Shohei Ohtani or Juan Soto to take their money. Now, some free agents could need Toronto, if some of the big-money teams pass on pricey moves. Kyle Tucker has been projected as a $400 million-plus player, but it might behoove him to move quickly if he gets an early, aggressive bid from the Jays (or some other team).

This is not a winter in which you want to be waiting for the big offers to materialize, as they did for Bryce Harper and Manny Machado in past offseasons.

Passan: Schwarber is the best bet. Tucker isn’t close to done yet. Cody Bellinger has a healthy market but is biding his time. Alex Bregman and Bo Bichette are world-class infielders with ample, moneyed suitors. Pete Alonso‘s signing could go down after Schwarber.

What’s clear is that there’s a group of teams that will spend on a big bat (Phillies, Red Sox, Blue Jays), a number surveying multiple options (Yankees, Mets, Cubs) and a handful that would do so opportunistically (Orioles, Tigers, Reds, Pirates). Others could emerge depending on how the market plays out and what trade possibilities emerge.


Which other hitters could move quickly at the meetings?

Olney: Cedric Mullins‘ choice to sign for a one-year, $7 million, with the Tampa Bay Rays could be a warning sign for this free agent class. Mullins was not a perfect free agent by any measure, after his struggles with the Mets, but the rapidity with which he agreed to a deal could reflect the general feeling that this market could play out like a game of musical chairs — if you’ve got offers in hand, it’d be best to move fast and grab a spot (and money). Jorge Polanco could be among those who sign sooner rather than later — he’s coveted by the Mariners and some other teams. Harrison Bader set himself up well with a strong performance in Philadelphia.

Passan: If Schwarber goes early, everyone is in play. Otherwise, the second tier of hitters includes infielder Jorge Polanco, catcher J.T. Realmuto and Japanese corner infielder Kazuma Okamoto, and teams believe there could be momentum toward deals with them. Another popular hitter: infielder Ha-Seong Kim, who could return to Atlanta — which still needs a shortstop — on a shorter-term deal or seek longer-term security elsewhere.


Now that Dylan Cease has signed, which big-name aces could move next?

Olney: It depends on your definition of “big name.” Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander, future Hall of Famers, will find landing spots, but they are on the downslopes of their remarkable careers; they can wait, and there is a presumption that Scherzer could pitch for his good friend, new San Francisco Giants manager Tony Vitello.

If you’re talking about the guys who will be getting paid the most, Framber Valdez and Ranger Suarez are next up, and there are clearly teams with which they could fit. The Mets need an ace; the Orioles need an ace. But the perceived expectations for Valdez’s next deal are high early in this offseason, evaluators say, and any team that bids on Suarez has to get comfortable with investing in a guy who doesn’t throw hard — which is not common in this era.

Passan: Teams in the mix for Suarez believe he’s the next big-time starter off the board. Though the 30-year-old won’t fetch a Dylan Cease-level deal, he long has been a target for Houston, which balks at deals beyond six years, and Baltimore, which is seeking a top-end rotation piece. Right-hander Michael King has widespread interest because of his frontline potential with a willingness to sign for a shorter term than the top starters. Also worth watching: right-hander Merrill Kelly, who at 37 is in line for a multiyear deal. Arguably the best starter in the class, Valdez is often among the league leaders in innings with a playoff résumé, and his market will unfold alongside the best hitters’.


Will we see a run of reliever signings following Devin Williams and Ryan Helsley getting deals?

Olney: Not necessarily, because there are so many relievers available — more than 100 unsigned free agents. Pete Fairbanks could be among the next to sign, and the 35-year-old Robert Suarez. Edwin Diaz‘s free agency is fascinating because he’s the best available pitcher in an offseason in which there are few teams seemingly prepared to invest a nine-figure contract on a short reliever. He has been linked to the Mets, of course, and the Blue Jays, but each of those teams has been filling other holes, so far.

Passan: The run on relievers is slowing slightly, though Fairbanks and Kyle Finnegan are the closers who could be had sooner than later. Tyler Rogers is primed to get a three-year deal, as is Brad Keller, who could transition to be a starter. Luke Weaver will get multiple years. The left-handed market is thin and led by Steven Matz, Caleb Ferguson, Taylor Rogers, Gregory Soto and Sean Newcomb. Diaz and Robert Suarez are the two best relievers left, and they are likely to wait for the larger market to shake out.


Which players will be mentioned most in winter meetings trade discussions?

Olney: It makes sense for teams that have trade candidates under team control into 2027 to weigh offers now because they might struggle to get proper value for those players next July, given the labor uncertainty after the season. That means players such as Mackenzie Gore of the Nationals — and Paul Toboni, Washington’s president of baseball operations, said in a “Baseball Tonight” podcast interview Wednesday that he has talked with Gore about hearing his name in trade rumors — and Kwan of the Guardians.

Interestingly, other teams report that the Twins haven’t been pushing Joe Ryan in trade discussions. Maybe that’s because they don’t have to, or, in the opinion of some evaluators, Minnesota could prefer to keep Ryan. The Diamondbacks told interested teams in July that they wouldn’t trade Marte, but their posture now is very different; they have to improve their rotation, and the quickest way to do that would be to swap Marte.

Passan: Multiple executives see a flurry of potential trades, headlined by Marte, Arizona’s All-Star second baseman. The Diamondbacks aren’t clamoring to move him. They also know that with five very affordable years under contract, Marte is among the most valuable players in baseball, thanks to his combination of productivity and cost. Another second baseman teams are considering: Tampa Bay’s Brandon Lowe.

Miami is almost certain to move a starting pitcher this winter, and Edward Cabrera has generated the most interest. Boston has been discussing its outfield surplus with multiple teams. Pittsburgh wants to trade a starter for a hitter. The Brendan Donovan market remains conflagrant, as St. Louis considers whether its rebuild will include him or the hefty return he would fetch.


Which is one surprise team to watch at the winter meetings?

Olney: We aren’t accustomed to seeing the Pirates, Marlins or A’s among the most aggressive teams, but they seem to be like college freshmen holding credit cards for the first time — some agents think they’ll add something in the range of $25 million to $30 million in payroll, either in salaries acquired through trades or in free agency.

Passan: After getting Helsley in free agency and Taylor Ward in a trade, the Orioles are looking to land a big player — and though the priority is pitching, they’re not against targeting a hitter, either. The Los Angeles Angels, whose last major free agent signing for more than $65 million was Anthony Rendon in December 2019, are still looking to bolster their rotation after trading for Grayson Rodriguez and signing Alek Manoah.


What else are you hearing that will shape the winter meetings?

Olney: The juiciest rumor I heard this week was the notion that the Mets could push the Phillies for Schwarber, and there are a lot of reasons this could make sense. Beyond Schwarber’s power and on-base capability — can you imagine pitchers working to get through Schwarber and Soto in the same inning? — he is known as someone who works to pull players together. And hell, even if the Mets don’t believe they can beat the Phillies in the bidding for the slugger, they could push Philadelphia’s cost by being involved, as the Braves did with Aaron Nola two winters ago.

There’s a lot of talk among teams about Murakami, the free agent corner infielder who is making his way from Japan — and skepticism, in some front offices, about how his skill set will play in the big leagues, given his big swing-and-miss profile and the perception that his defense could be a problem. But all he needs in this bidding is for one team (or more) to fall in love with his big-time power.

Passan: If Schwarber signs and unclogs the market, expect others to fall — either toward the end of the meetings or in the weeks leading up to Christmas. Japanese right-hander Tatsuya Imai could wind up with a big-market team on the East Coast, and the New York Yankees — with Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodon expected to miss the start of the season — New York Mets and Philadelphia are reasonable landing spots. All three have interest in Bellinger, too. Another Japanese star, Munetaka Murakami, is more likely to sign in the period between the meetings and holidays. With the paucity of center fielders in free agency and on the trade market, Bader has a healthy market.

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