Rangers seize ‘big moment,’ snare 2-0 ALCS lead
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Bradford Doolittle, ESPN Staff Writer
HOUSTON — You hear it so often at playoff time that the words take on the form of the cliche: The team that wins the big moments wins in the postseason.
For two games over two nights in the ALCS, and for seven games since the playoffs began, the Texas Rangers have won just about all of the big moments that have come their way this October.
Texas was at it again Monday, winning a nail-biting 5-4 decision in Game 2 at Minute Maid Park that puts the Houston Astros in the kind of postseason hole they’ve rarely been in during their seven-season run of October dominance.
“I think that’s what makes baseball special,” said Rangers catcher Jonah Heim, who clanged a homer in Game 2 off a metallic sign above the Crawford Boxes. “You never know who’s going to win the big moment.”
While the Rangers haven’t faced this kind of pressure cooker as a group before, a number of their key performers have been there and done that during their careers. One of those seasoned standouts is Texas Game 2 starter Nathan Eovaldi, who won his seventh career playoff game.
Texas gave Eovaldi an early margin to work with, jumping on Houston starter Framber Valdez for four runs in the first inning and chasing the lefty after 2⅔ innings. Texas built a 5-1 lead before Houston started chipping away.
Eovaldi wavered at times, giving up solo homers to Yordan Alvarez and Alex Bregman. The game appeared to be on the verge of flipping Houston’s way in the fifth, when Michael Brantley and Chas McCormick singled. Josh Jung, who otherwise put up a highlight-reel performance in the field at third base, misplayed a slow Jeremy Pena grounder.
Bases jammed, no one out, the Rangers clinging to a 5-2 lead. These are the moments the Astros have won so often over the years during their streak of seven straight ALCS appearance that has included two World Series titles and four pennants.
“I feel like in those big moments you’ve got to bear down and make big pitches,” Eovaldi said. “The stadium is crazy. You have all the fans and everything going nuts. But at the same time you try to simplify everything down to your strengths and what you do best.”
In this instance, pulling off an escape that would make Houdini jealous is what Eovaldi did best. Eovaldi won the moment, striking out Yanier Diaz and Jose Altuve, then getting Bregman on a chopper to third. Threat extinguished.
“That was the turning point in the game,” Rangers manager Bruce Bochy said. “Found a way to get through it. And terrific job by [Eovaldi]. He had good stuff today. He pitched very well.”
Eovaldi departed after gutting out six innings, allowing three runs and striking out nine. He has now struck out 23 batters over three 2023 playoff starts and for his postseason career is 7-3 with a 2.87 ERA over 14 appearances, including eight starts.
The next big moment arose in the bottom of the eighth against the Texas bullpen. Alvarez mashed his second homer of the game and sixth of the postseason, taking lefty Aroldis Chapman deep to trim the Rangers’ lead to one run.
With the orange towel-waving fans in Houston worked into a frenzy, anticipating the kind of climatic moment they’ve come to expect from the Astros, Bochy decided to insert closer Jose Leclerc for a possible four-out save, one of the first instances this October in which the manager has pushed one of his relievers.
“I didn’t really think about [four outs],” Leclerc said via a team interpreter. “I just had to get one out, then three more outs.”
Bochy, in pursuit of his fourth World Series title as a manager, has guided as many teams through big moments as anyone. But it appeared that he might have made the wrong call for once when Leclerc started off wild, walking both Jose Abreu and Brantley. Surely this was the tipping-point moment for the inevitable Astros.
Instead, Leclerc got McCormick to reach for a slider down in the zone. McCormick chopped it at Jung. The rookie third baseman has excelled with the glove all season but also missed time in September because of a thumb injury that still requires him to wear a guard on his glove hand.
“It hit off my little thumb guard,” Jung said. “Just hit right off there and popped up in the air. I didn’t panic or anything.”
That’s how it played out, with the ball deflecting off Jung’s glove and suspending in the air for what felt like a long time. Jung simply gathered it back in and stepped on the third-base bag for the forceout, ending the inning.
Leclerc was back out for the ninth and after Pena flied out to the wall in right, Jung went to his knees to smother a sharp Diaz grounder and threw across for the second out. That brought up perennial postseason hero Jose Altuve.
But this was the Rangers’ moment, too: Altuve reached for a Leclerc offering and flied out harmlessly to center. Leclerc said, “I’d didn’t have my best stuff,” but his stuff was good enough for the bend-but-don’t-break Rangers.
“We had balls bounce our way a couple of times and we’ve made some really good plays defensively,” Heim said. “I think that makes us who we are.”
Now the Rangers are getting into historical territory. Texas has reeled off seven straight wins to start the playoffs, including six on the road. Only the 2014 Royals had a longer streak (eight games) to begin a postseason. Only the 2005 White Sox had a longer road win streak (eight) within the same postseason.
Perhaps more importantly, the Rangers have pushed the Astros into a corner from which they’ve rarely had to respond. Only once in 14 series since 2017 has Houston hosted the first two games of a matchup and lost both.
But the Rangers would be well served to recall what the Astros did when they last faced an 0-2 hole with three games looming on the road. In the 2019 World Series, Houston dropped two straight games to the Nationals at Minute Maid. They then traveled to Washington and won three straight.
Game 3 is slated for Wednesday at Globe Life Field. Texas will send ace Max Scherzer to the mound for his first action of the postseason. Houston will start righty Cristian Javier.
Anyone expecting the Astros to panic now will probably be disappointed. After seven years of excellence, the Rangers can expect an opponent that still very much expects to win.
“You treat it like the game of baseball,” said Bregman, whose homer gave him 17 career playoff long balls and 50 postseason RBIs for the Astros. “You got to continue to play and have that next-pitch mentality. So true too. We’ve seen what this October has been like, and sometimes things don’t make sense.”
Sports
Ranking the top 50 players in the Stanley Cup playoffs: Where do Hellebuyck, MacKinnon, Kucherov land?
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Neil Paine
As the 2025 Stanley Cup playoffs began, a number of storylines dominated the conversation: Can Connor Hellebuyck turn his historic regular season into a Dominik Hašek-esque postseason run for the ages for the Winnipeg Jets? Will the Colorado Avalanche–Dallas Stars showdown be a quasi-Cup Final right away in Round 1? Is it finally the year for Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl to win it all, after the Edmonton Oilers came so close last season?
But beyond the matchups and narratives, it’s also a good time to take stock of which players bring the most value into the postseason.
That’s where goals above replacement (GAR) comes in — my evolved spin on earlier all-in-one value stats like Tom Awad’s goals versus threshold and Hockey-Reference’s point shares. The core idea of GAR is to measure a player’s total impact — in offense, defense or goaltending — above what a generic “replacement-level” player might provide at the same position. It also strives to ensure the league’s value is better balanced by position: 60% of leaguewide GAR is distributed to forwards, 30% to defensemen and 10% to goaltenders.
To then assess who might be most valuable on the eve of this year’s playoffs, I plugged GAR into a system inspired by Bill James’ concept of an “established level” of performance; in this case, a weighted average of each player’s GAR over the past three regular seasons, with more emphasis on 2024-25. And to keep the metric from undervaluing recent risers, we also apply a safeguard: no player’s established level can be lower than 75% of his most recent season’s GAR.
The result is a blend of peak, recent, and sustained performance — the players on playoff-bound teams who have been great, are currently great or are still trending upward — in a format that gives us a sense of who could define this year’s postseason.
One final note: Injured players who were expected to miss all or substantial parts of the playoffs were excluded from the ranking. Sorry, Jack Hughes.
With that in mind, here are the top 50 skaters and goaltenders on teams in the 2025 playoff field, according to their three-year established level of value, ranked by the numbers:
Five series of the 2025 Stanley Cup playoffs have begun, and two more will begin Monday. Meanwhile, the two matchups in the Central Division are on to Game 2.
Here’s the four-pack of games on the calendar:
What are the key storylines heading into Monday’s games? Who are the key players to watch?
Read on for game previews with statistical insights from ESPN Research, recaps of what went down last night, and the Three Stars of Sunday Night from Arda Öcal.
Matchup notes
Montreal Canadiens at Washington Capitals
Game 1 | 7 p.m., ESPN
You might’ve heard about the 2010 playoff matchup between these two teams a time or so in the past week.
In that postseason, the overwhelming favorite (and No. 1 seed) Capitals, led by Alex Ovechkin, were upset by the No. 8 seed Canadiens, due in large part to an epic performance in goal from Jaroslav Halak. Halak isn’t walking out of the tunnel for the Habs this time around (we assume); instead it’ll be Becancour, Quebec, native Sam Montembeault, who allowed four goals on 35 shots in his one start against the Caps this season.
Washington’s goaltender for Game 1 has yet to be revealed, as Logan Thompson was injured back on April 2. But there’s no question that there is a disparity between the offensive output of the two clubs, as the Caps finished second in the NHL in goals per game (3.49), while the Canadiens finished 17th (2.96). Can Montreal keep up in this series?
St. Louis Blues at Winnipeg Jets
Game 2 | 7:30 p.m., ESPN2
The Blues hung with the Jets for much of Game 1 and even looked like the stronger team at certain times, so pulling off the series upset remains on the table. But getting a win on the unfriendly ice at the Canada Life Centre would be of some benefit in shifting momentum before the series moves to St. Louis for Game 3. The Blues proved that Connor Hellebuyck is not invincible in Game 1, and they were led by stars Jordan Kyrou and Robert Thomas, who both got on the board.
The Jets have a mixed history after winning Game 1 of a playoff series, having gone 3-3 as a franchise (including the Atlanta Thrashers days) on such occasions. Like the Blues, the Jets were led by their stars, Kyle Connor and Mark Scheifele, but the game-tying goal came from Alex Iafallo, who has played up and down the lineup this season.
Colorado Avalanche at Dallas Stars
Game 2 | 9:30 p.m., ESPN
The Stars might like a redo on Game 1 after the visiting Avalanche essentially controlled the festivities for much of the contest. Stars forward Jason Robertson missed Game 1 because of an injury sustained in the final game of the regular season, and his return sooner than later would be excellent for Dallas; he scored three goals in three games against Colorado in the regular season. Also of note, teams that have taken a 2-0 lead in best-of-seven series have won 86% of the time.
Slowing down the Avs’ stars will be critical in Game 2, which is a sound — if perhaps unrealistic — strategy. With his two goals in Game 1, Nathan MacKinnon became the third player in Avalanche/Nordiques history to score 50 playoff goals, joining Joe Sakic (84) and Peter Forsberg (58). In reaching 60 assists in his 73rd playoff game, Cale Makar became the third-fastest defenseman in NHL history to reach that milestone, behind Bobby Orr (69 GP) and Al MacInnis (71 GP).
Edmonton Oilers at Los Angeles Kings
Game 1 | 10 p.m., ESPN2
This is the fourth straight postseason in which the Oilers and Kings have met in Round 1, and Edmonton has won the previous three series. Will the fourth time be the charm for the Kings?
L.A. went 3-1-0 against Edmonton this season, including shutouts on April 5 and 14. Quinton Byfield was particularly strong in those games, with three goals and an assist. Overall, the Kings were led in scoring this season by Adrian Kempe, with 35 goals and 38 assists. Warren Foegele — who played 22 playoff games for the Oilers in 2024 — had a career-high 24 goals this season.
The Oilers enter the 2025 postseason with 41 playoff series wins, which is the second most among non-Original Six teams (behind the Flyers, with 44). They have been eliminated by the team that won the Stanley Cup in each of the past three postseasons (Panthers 2024, Golden Knights 2023, Avalanche 2022). Edmonton continues to be led by Leon Draisaitl — who won his first Rocket Richard Trophy as the league’s top goal scorer this season — and Connor McDavid, who won the goal-scoring title in 2022-23 and the Conn Smythe Trophy as MVP of the playoffs last year, even though the Oilers didn’t win the Cup.
Arda’s Three Stars of Sunday
For the last several seasons, much of the postseason narrative for the Leafs has been the lack of production from the Core Four. So this was a dream Game 1 against Ottawa for Marner (one goal, two assists), Nylander (one goal, one assist), John Tavares (one goal, one assist) and Matthews (two assists) in Toronto’s 6-2 win over Ottawa.
Stankoven’s two goals in the second period put the game out of reach, with the Canes winning 4-1 in Game 1. Stankoven is the second player in Hurricanes/Whalers history to score twice in his first playoff game with the club (the other was Andrei Svechnikov in Game 1 of the first round in 2019)
Howden had two third-period goals in the Golden Knights’ victory over the Wild in Game 1, including a buzzer-beating empty-netter to make the final score 4-2.
Sunday’s results
Hurricanes 4, Devils 1
Carolina leads 1-0
The Hurricanes came out inspired thanks in part to the raucous home crowd and took a quick lead off the stick of Jalen Chatfield at 2:24 of the first period. Logan Stankoven — who came over in the Mikko Rantanen trade — scored a pair in the second period, and the Canes never looked back. On the Devils’ side, injuries forced Brenden Dillon and Cody Glass out of the game, while Luke Hughes left in the third period but was able to return. Full recap.
0:44
Logan Stankoven’s 2nd goal gives Hurricanes a 3-0 lead
Logan Stankoven notches his second goal of the game to give the Hurricanes a 3-0 lead.
Maple Leafs 6, Senators 2
Toronto leads 1-0
The first skirmish in the Battle of Ontario goes to the home side, as the Leafs never let the Senators get very close in this one. Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Mitch Marner scored in the first, John Tavares and William Nylander tallied in the second, while Morgan Rielly and Matthew Knies put the game away in the third. Drake Batherson and Ridly Greig — scorer of a controversial empty-net goal against Toronto in 2024 — scored for Ottawa. Full recap.
0:42
William Nylander zips home a goal to pad the Maple Leafs’ lead
William Nylander zips the puck past the goalie to give the Maple Leafs a 4-1 lead.
Golden Knights 4, Wild 2
Vegas leads 1-0
In Sunday’s nightcap, the two teams played an evenly matched first two periods, as Vegas carried a 2-1 lead into the third. Then, Brett Howden worked his magic, scoring a goal to pad the Knights’ lead 2:28 into that frame, and putting the game to bed with an empty-netter that beat the buzzer. The Wild were led by Matt Boldy, who had two goals, both assisted by Kirill Kaprizov. Full recap.
0:31
Brett Howden buries Wild in Game 1 with buzzer-beating goal
Brett Howden sends the Minnesota Wild packing in Game 1 with an empty-net goal for the Golden Knights in the final second.
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