College football Week 8 preview: How will the unbeatens fare this weekend?
Week 8 is here and the number of undefeated teams keeps dwindling, so which ones will be left standing at the end? Well, nine of 11 unbeaten teams are in action this weekend, including Penn State at Ohio State. One of those squads will suffer its first loss of the season.
Elsewhere, defenses have been impressive from more than just the undefeated group, and our reporters break down everything to know heading into this weekend.
What’s on deck for CFB’s undefeated teams in Week 8 and beyond?
Georgia (bye) and Liberty (Tuesday win vs. Middle Tennessee) do not play this weekend, so as they regroup, we’ll focus on the rest of the Week 8 slate.
Washington 6-0 vs. Arizona State
ESPN’s Football Power Index gives the Huskies a 14.2% chance of not just winning out through the regular season, but through the Pac-12 title game. Which is one way to say it probably isn’t going to happen.
Of the 11 remaining unbeaten teams, six have better odds. Looking at the schedule, it’s easy to see why. The Huskies have three ranked teams left before finishing the regular season against Washington State in the Apple Cup. The good news for the Huskies, though, is that if they end up being measured against other one-loss teams, their strength of schedule at the end of the year will be a benefit.
With Arizona State and Stanford the next two weeks, there is a clear expectation the Huskies will be 8-0. That’s when it gets tricky. They go to USC, home against Utah and to Oregon State. That’s three very different opponents that will pose significantly different challenges. While the Huskies should be favored in all three, the margin for error will be tight. — Kyle Bonagura
Penn State 6-0 (at Ohio State)
After losing to Ohio State in 2018, Penn State coach James Franklin sounded off on how the program had risen from average to good to great but had yet to reach an elite level. He spoke emotionally about how PSU couldn’t be comfortable with where it stood and needed to do “all the little things” to reach the next level.
“We’ve been knocking at the door long enough,” Franklin said then.
Four more Ohio State losses later, Penn State’s time to break through has come. The Lions have some talent edges over the Buckeyes, especially on defense, and boast a first-year starting quarterback in Drew Allar, who might have a higher ceiling. Much has been made of Penn State’s conservative approach with Allar, who averages just 6.93 yards per attempt, 93rd nationally, and has only 11 completions of 20 yards or longer (tied for 114th nationally).
As good as the Nittany Lions are on defense — No. 1 nationally in fewest yards allowed, rushing defense, passing defense and sacks per game — they likely will need to cut it loose more, beginning Saturday at Ohio State. But Franklin is pleased with Allar’s patience as a young QB.
“Every quarterback wants to throw the corner route or the go route or the post,” Franklin said. “Who is throwing checkdowns in their backyard, right? … He’s doing a really good job of keeping the main thing the main thing, which is protecting the football, trying to create explosive plays when they’re there, but not forcing them.”
Penn State’s season will be shaped by how it performs Saturday and Nov. 11 against Michigan. The Lions are 4-14 against Ohio State and Michigan under Franklin, who is 80-22 against everyone else while at the school. Penn State hasn’t beaten both heavyweights since 2008. The Michigan matchup, even more so than Ohio State, has become especially difficult for Franklin’s teams.
But the opportunity is there, and Penn State has the pieces in place to take the step Franklin has wanted for years. — Adam Rittenberg
Ohio State 6-0 (vs. Penn State)
Ohio State doesn’t really look like a team poised to run the table, but its dominant play in the past six quarters suggests a shift is coming. The Buckeyes outclassed Maryland in the second half Oct. 7, and never let Purdue get traction in last week’s 41-7 road win.
Obviously, coach Ryan Day’s team will need to maintain and elevate its play this week against Penn State, which looks like a better version of the squad that held a fourth-quarter lead over Ohio State last year until JT Tuimoloau was prolific in the closing minutes. Ohio State’s offense needs quarterback Kyle McCord to keep progressing — he has five touchdowns, no interceptions and 596 passing yards in his past two games, but has had some hiccups against pressure — while also finding greater balance on offense and protecting better. Penn State leads the nation in sacks (4.5 per game) and is tied for seventh nationally in overall team pressures (99).
“This will be our biggest challenge to date,” Day said Tuesday. “They’re very twitchy, very quick, they get after the quarterback at a high level. Both ends are NFL players for sure. So our tackles, in particular, are going to have to do a great job.”
Ohio State’s defense could ultimately be the unit that propels the Buckeyes to an undefeated season. The unit doesn’t pop in any of the popular categories — sacks (105th), takeaways (tied for 92nd), tackles for loss (tied for 82nd) — but has limited big plays and ultimately kept points off the board. Coordinator Jim Knowles’ less-is-more approach could pay off this week against a solid but not spectacular Penn State offense, and ultimately against a marauding Michigan team on the road. Knowles on Tuesday said he doesn’t like the bend-but-don’t-break label, classifying his defense simply as: “One that prevents points.”
The Buckeyes’ schedule outside of Penn State and Michigan is manageable, especially since Wisconsin just lost starting quarterback Tanner Mordecai to injury. But finding a way to outlast arguably Penn State’s best team since 2016 will be a key first step.
“There’s a lot riding on every game,” Day said. “We know that and so it’s my job to bring it every week, every Saturday and push as hard as I can.” — Adam Rittenberg
Michigan 7-0 (at Michigan State)
Michigan has started the season undefeated through seven games for the third year in a row. The Wolverines have faced an easier schedule so far, but have dominated opponents week by week.
Michigan is the first team since 1936 to score 30 or more points while allowing 10 or fewer points in each of its first seven games. Easier opponents or not, that is impressive and Michigan has been a balanced team throughout.
The Wolverines have scored 30 or more points in 10 straight games, which is the longest streak in program history. As it stands, the team has a receiver in Roman Wilson, who is tied for most touchdown receptions among all FBS players (9), and a running back in Blake Corum, who is tied for the most rushing touchdowns among all FBS backs (12).
It’s not the Michigan of old, when opponents could load up the box and just try to stop the run, as the passing game has been prominently displayed this season.
But November is going to be the tough test for Michigan. The team will face Penn State on the road, Maryland and Ohio State in November. Happy Valley is never an easy place to play and the Nittany Lions are playing outstanding football. Ohio State has lost twice in a row to Michigan and will do anything it can to stop that streak.
Despite the way Michigan is playing, those games will be tough tests, but the Wolverines have described themselves as bullies and the team that wants to bring the adversity to its opponents. How good this team is and how far it can go will depend on the November results.
“There was a real calm, a real understanding that when we get punched in the mouth, we’re going to respond,” coach Jim Harbaugh said. “That’s what’s going to happen. Everybody has that kind of faith in the leadership of our team, the character of our team. There’s a devotion to the fundamentals of Michigan football and we just go to work at responding.
“That’s the best strategy you can do and that’s what we lean back on.” — Tom VanHaaren
The Sooners rank second in FPI, just behind Ohio State, but have the highest probability of winning out of any undefeated team at 41.1%. Their remaining schedule ranks 45th in strength as the rest of the league, with the exception of Texas, has had wildly unpredictable results.
But OU’s Dillon Gabriel has been unflappable, leading a Sooners offense that is averaging 45.2 points per game (fourth-best nationally), while Danny Stutsman headlines a defense allowing just 14 ppg, seventh best. Now that the annual pressure cooker against Texas is over, with Gabriel delivering a legendary comeback drive with no timeouts, going 75 yards in just over a minute for a 34-30 win, OU can think bigger.
“Our mindset is that we’ve already put all the pressure on ourselves,” Oklahoma defensive end Ethan Downs told reporters on Monday. “We have high expectations, and we have goals. The goals are still the same as they were before the hype and after. We appreciate all the recognition, but our goals exceed far beyond that. What happens in the building and what happens in every practice is what we’re focused on. It hasn’t changed.”
The biggest remaining challengers for the Sooners include a trip to Stillwater on Nov. 4 in front of an emotional Oklahoma State crowd for what will be the last Bedlam rivalry game before the Sooners depart for the SEC, facing a Cowboys program that has surged back to life following a 33-7 loss at home to South Alabama and another at Iowa State.
After UCF, the Sooners will travel to Kansas to face a Jayhawks squad that can score on anyone. They’ll finish the season with a home game against TCU, which also appeared to find its footing with a new quarterback last weekend. In between, the Sooners will play a gritty West Virginia team and endure a trip to Provo for BYU’s only conference battle with them. All are winnable, but the Big 12 never seems to follow the script. But as it stands now, FPI projects the Sooners have a 70.1% chance to make the College Football Playoff and a 39.9% chance to make the title game, both best in the country. — Dave Wilson
North Carolina 6-0 (vs. Virginia)
North Carolina hasn’t found itself ranked in the top 10 often, but when it happens, it doesn’t typically go well for the Tar Heels. Since Mack Brown left Chapel Hill the first time in 1998, UNC has played five games as a top-10 team. It’s lost four of them.
Well, UNC is 6-0 and ranked 10th. Time for an implosion?
“We’ve got to handle success,” Brown said. “That’s something we haven’t done very well around here. To be a great team, you’ve got to play to a standard, and that standard is to win every game.”
UNC was last in the top 10 in the 2021 preseason poll, and it quickly lost to Virginia Tech in the opener. He doesn’t foresee such a stumble this week, with Virginia on the docket.
For one, the Cavaliers are scuffling at 1-5 — though they won their last game, vs. William and Mary, and are coming off an open date. More importantly, Brown said, the focus for his team is different this time around.
In last week’s win over Miami, the Heels ran for 235 yards, Drake Maye threw four touchdowns and the defense forced four turnovers. And yet, Brown said the team was as critical of itself after Saturday’s victory as it has been after any win since he returned to Chapel Hill five years ago.
“We’re at a different place with this team and this staff,” he said.
The team certainly is in a different place on defense, with last year’s overwhelmed unit now playing with confidence.
It’s different in the run game, where Omarion Hampton has blossomed as one of the nation’s most productive runners.
And it’s far different in the passing game, with Tez Walker showing why UNC was so eager to get him on the field after he had three touchdown grabs last week.
But more than anything, North Carolina is different in its expectations.
Two years ago, when Brown announced to his team it was ranked eighth in the preseason polls, the players erupted in cheers. On Sunday, when he let them know they were 10th, no one budged.
“I think they appreciate being where they are,” he said, “and they know it’s fleeting. So you better win.” — David Hale
Florida State 6-0 (vs. Duke)
Of all the undefeated teams listed here, only Oklahoma has a better chance to finish unbeaten than Florida State, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index. But that doesn’t necessarily mean the Seminoles have a cakewalk on their remaining schedule. Whether Duke has Riley Leonard available or not — he remains day to day with a high ankle sprain — the Blue Devils defense will present FSU’s biggest challenge since Clemson. Duke ranks No. 4 in the nation in scoring defense, one of four schools in the country giving up less than 10 points per game.
“You look at the standard of good defenses. This is one that you would point to,” Florida State coach Mike Norvell said. “All 11 guys on their defense tackle, they can run, cover. They’re disruptive in the schemes that they present. Got really good pressure packages that challenge offenses. You can see the confidence in how they play. These are the games you love being a part of. It’s going to be some fun X’s and O’s to see who can try to create any type of advantage.”
Indeed, on the flip side, Florida State is one of nine offenses in the country averaging more than 40 points per game. It has finally found a nice balance between its run and passing game, and will have to match the intensity and physicality that Duke plays with — particularly on defense. If Duke can control the line of scrimmage and force the Seminoles into mistakes, the Blue Devils will give themselves a chance to win.
Beyond Duke, Florida State still has both its in-state rivals left on the schedule — Miami at home Nov. 11 and at Florida on Nov. 25 — and a tricky game at Pitt on Nov. 4. The Panthers are 2-4, but they just took down unbeaten Louisville. Doing it again should not be out of the question. — Andrea Adelson
Granted, things just got trickier with the loss of quarterback Zac Larrier to a knee injury. His timetable is uncertain at the moment; coach Troy Calhoun said only that Larrier would “likely be out for a while” and that he didn’t know how long. Still, Air Force has quite a bit going for it in the quest to get to 12-0 or 13-0.
For one thing, backup quarterback Jensen Jones has experience and has posted similar numbers in a smaller sample. Jones will still have a particularly explosive set of backs at his disposal, too, feeding players like John Lee Eldridge III (10.1 yards per carry) and Owen Burk (6.3). His defense should remain awesome as well: Air Force has been awfully stingy in recent years and boasts A-plus playmakers in linebackers Bo Richter, PJ Ramsey and Alec Mock (combined: 18.5 tackles for loss, 8.5 sacks) and safety Trey Taylor. Calhoun has led this team for nearly 20 years, and this is one of his most talented casts.
Plus, the remaining schedule is awfully navigable. Granted, the next four games are all away from home, and they include rivalry contests against both Navy and Army, but these next four opponents have a combined record of 10-15. The Falcons’ path to 10-0 is solid, and they might have a chance to get Larrier back before they finish the season against 5-1 UNLV, Boise State and whoever they might play in a theoretical MWC championship game.
But that’s down the road. This week the focus is on Navy. The Falcons have won three in a row in this series, but they were by diminishing margins — 40-7 in 2020, 23-3 in 2021, 13-10 in 2022 — and Navy has won two in a row after a 1-3 start. Taking down an increasingly confident rival with your backup quarterback never qualifies as easy. — Bill Connelly
James Madison 6-0 (at Marshall on Thursday)
The Dukes have only two games remaining against teams that are over .500, beginning Thursday night with Marshall (4-2) and in two weeks (Nov. 4) against Georgia State (5-1). Fresh off its 41-13 dispatching of Georgia Southern last week, James Madison’s offense is in high gear — tallying at least 31 points in five of its six games.
In its second season as an FBS program, Curt Cignetti has led a successful transition to the Sun Belt for a program that enjoyed four seasons of at least 12 wins and three berths in the FCS national championship game since 2016 (including winning the national title in 2016). Ineligible to play in the postseason as its two-year transition to Division I concludes, James Madison has a carrot of an undefeated season in reach. It hasn’t finished unbeaten since 1975 (9-0-1).
Whether the program gets there may depend on its offense (34.5 ppg) continuing to put the foot on the gas behind senior quarterback Jordan McCloud (1,432 passing yards with 14 touchdowns and three interceptions) and hope its defense tightens things a bit. — Blake Baumgartner
Which defenses have impressed so far this season?
North Carolina
The North Carolina defense has been impressive when you consider where this group was a year ago. Headed into the season, many wondered how much improvement we would see from a group that ranked either near or at the bottom in the ACC in nearly every statistical category in 2022. Defensive coordinator Gene Chizik promised the group would play much better in Year 2 in the system, and he has been right. North Carolina is allowing nearly 100 yards and 10 points per game fewer than last year; its run defense is allowing 50 fewer yards per game; it already has reached its interception total for all of last year (9); it has 16 sacks, one away from the total last year; and it already has more tackles for loss (35) than last year. Kaimon Rucker has emerged at the rush end position, the revamped secondary has played better thanks, in part, to key transfer addition Alijah Huzzie, and Cedric Gray has developed into a terrific all-around linebacker. — Adelson
The last drive against Oklahoma notwithstanding, the Texas defense has been the difference in its turnaround this year. The Longhorns have already faced Alabama, a solid Kansas offense (though Jalon Daniels did not play) and a stellar Oklahoma unit, and rank 15th nationally in points allowed (16.3) and are allowing 323.3 total yards, 26th-best. The Longhorns are allowing rushing first downs 14.3% of plays, first nationally, and are eighth overall in allowing a conversion on 28.4% of third downs. — Wilson
Penn State
Michigan’s defense has been dominant and the numbers that unit is putting up are notable, but Penn State’s defense has edged the Wolverines in many top categories. The Nittany Lions are first among all FBS programs in yards allowed per game, giving up 193.7 yards. The team is third overall in rush yards allowed (72.5) and first in pass yards allowed per game (121.2). The team is also second among all FBS programs in sacks with 27, first in opponent completion percentage, first in pass touchdowns allowed, giving up just one all season, and the list goes on with this defense. Penn State will have its work cut out for it in the latter half of the season, with Ohio State, Maryland and Michigan, but the defense has been nearly flawless. — VanHaaren
How good has the Utah defense been? Consider this: The Utes are 5-1 and are ranked No. 14 in the country despite having the nation’s No. 111-ranked scoring offense. That’s not possible without an elite defense. The Utes rank No. 5 nationally in scoring (12.2 ppg) and have forced opponents to go three-and-out 46.5% of the time, the third-best mark in the country. — Bonagura
For a change, it’s not Georgia or not Alabama that has grabbed the headlines defensively the first part of the season in the SEC, although both are outstanding. It’s Tim Banks’ Tennessee defense that has stolen the show and blossomed into one of the most improved units in the country after finishing 91st nationally a year ago in total defense.
The Vols lead the SEC with just 10 touchdowns allowed in six games and are second to Georgia in yards per play allowed (4.41) and second to Texas A&M in sacks per game (4). Sophomore defensive end James Pearce Jr. has emerged as one of the top pass-rushers in the country, and only in their 29-16 loss to Florida have the Vols given up more than two touchdowns in a game. In three of their six contests, they’ve allowed just one touchdown, and the two touchdowns UTSA scored came in the second half after Tennessee led 31-0 at the half.
The matchup Saturday against Alabama should be especially interesting. Tennessee is one of the best teams in the country at sacking the quarterback (24), while Alabama is one of the worst at giving up sacks (31). — Chris Low
Quotes of the week
“You can’t sit around and eat the poisonous cheese. You can’t listen to the talk. You can’t pat yourself on the back, because we’re human beings. How are we going to play? Are we going to walk around all week and be cool and talk about all these stats and about how many times we’ve been 6-0?” — North Carolina coach Mack Brown on getting complacent after an undefeated start.
“We’re in the ass-kicking business, and business is booming.” — Linebacker Mike Barrett said after Michigan’s win against Indiana.
“I was frustrated and kicked something I shouldn’t have kicked and thought I was OK, and then the adrenaline of the game wore off.” — Shane Beamer on how he broke his foot following South Carolina’s loss last week.
“Are they in love with this game or are they in like with it?” — Deion Sanders’ comments following Colorado’s loss to Stanford.
The 2025 MLB trade deadline is just around the corner, with contending teams deciding what they need to add before 6 p.m. ET on Thursday.
Could Jarren Duran be on the move from the Boston Red Sox? Will the Arizona Diamondbacks deal Eugenio Suarez and Zac Gallen to contenders? And who among the Los Angeles Dodgers, Chicago Cubs, New York Mets, New York Yankees, Detroit Tigers and Philadelphia Phillies will go all-in to boost their 2025 World Series hopes?
Whether your favorite club is looking to add or deal away — or stands somewhere in between — here’s the freshest intel we’re hearing, reaction to completed deals and what to know for every team as trade season unfolds.
More: Top 50 trade candidates | Trade grades | Fantasy spin | Ranking traded prospects
Jump to: Latest intel | Completed deals | Previous intel
This week’s MLB trade deadline buzz
July 29
Robert trade talk heats up: NL East rivals are vying for outfielder Luis Robert Jr. of the White Sox, with Chicago apparently resolute in the stance that it’ll either receive a trade return the equivalent of what Robert’s potential is or hang on to him beyond the deadline. The White Sox hold a $20 million option on Robert next season, and they have tons of payroll flexibility moving forward, meaning that there really is no financial stress in the decision; Chicago doesn’t have to dump the contract.
A lot of Robert’s career has been filled with injuries or underwhelming performance, but he has always been viewed as a superstar talent. Luisangel Acuna and Mark Vientos are among the names that have come up in conversations with the Mets, and the Phillies have a farm system loaded with pitching. The Padres have also inquired about Robert. — Buster Olney
Braves moving Ozuna? Possibly to Padres? With little more than 48 hours to go before the deadline, there is movement developing around Marcell Ozuna, who has the power to reject any trade proposal. At least one team has had internal conversations about trying to work out a deal for the slugger.
It’ll be interesting to see if the Padres emerge as a possible landing spot for Ozuna. San Diego has some of baseball’s worst DH production this year — wRC+ of 82, which ranks 28th — and presumably, the prospect-strapped Padres wouldn’t have to give up much to get him. — Olney
Cards looking to deal Helsley: For a lot of this season, rival executives weren’t sure if the Cardinals would trade players at the deadline, because their perception was the organization wanted to have as good of a season as possible in John Mozeliak’s last year running baseball operations. They weren’t sure if closer Ryan Helsley, a free-agent-to-be, would be dealt. As recently as a few days ago, it was still unclear to some teams whether Helsley would be moved.
But on Tuesday morning, multiple executives said the Cardinals are exchanging names and appear devoted to moving Helsley, though the offers for him might not be as robust as they had hoped. Helsley’s strikeout rate is down this season, he’s allowed a higher percentage of homers, and his ERA has climbed. “He’s not having the lights-out season we’ve seen from him before,” said one evaluator. The Tigers, Mets, Yankees, Mariners, Dodgers, Phillies and Blue Jays are among the contenders looking for relief help. — Olney
Are the Rays adding or subtracting? Even they don’t know: The market is still stalled somewhat by teams deciding what they want to do. Tampa Bay is at the top of that list. The Rays have pitchers — both starters and relievers — that teams want. But being just on the outside of the wild-card race is causing some hesitation for the Rays. — Jesse Rogers
Yankees seeking relief — and lots of it: The Yankees continue to look for relief help. They have resources deployed throughout the league in search of bullpen arms. If there is a closer or setup man available, New York is scouting him. Think Ryan Helsley and work down from there. — Rogers
Speaking of relievers: Other teams believe the Colorado Rockies could make a killing in the current market if they dealt their best relievers — Seth Halvorsen, Jake Bird and Jimmy Herget. But some of those same teams view the current asking prices as unreachable, and they wonder if the Rockies will bend as the deadline gets closer. — Olney
Rangers ready to rock at the deadline: The Texas Rangers have won nine of 11 and rival executives report that the Rangers are aggressively looking to upgrade their bullpen before the trade deadline. — Olney
July 28
Mets in need of relievers: As we close in on the deadline, the Mets are looking to ideally add two relievers — a center fielder, and possibly an additional hitter to slot in a designated hitter, in the event that their current regular DH Mark Vientos is one of the players they need to include in a deal to address their needs.
White Sox CF Luis Robert Jr. is their top target for the center-field need, with Orioles CF Cedric Mullins as the second option, as Jesse Rogers has noted below. I’m told the White Sox have focused on Brett Baty, Ronny Mauricio, Vientos and Luisangel Acuna in those Robert talks, with the last two being the most realistic options. — Kiley McDaniel
Bader could be a hot commodity: The Dodgers, Mets and Yankees are among the teams that have shown interest in Twins outfielder Harrison Bader, sources told ESPN. Bader is a plus defender batting .255 with 12 home runs and a .777 OPS in 93 games this season. His 2.0 fWAR ranks 30th in the majors among outfielders. He would effectively be a rental for a contender; he signed a one-year deal with $6.25 million guaranteed plus up to $2 million in bonuses that includes a mutual option for 2026. He is likely to opt for free agency to secure a better contract before his age-32 season.
Bader has played for both New York clubs; with the Yankees in 2022 and 2023 and with the Mets last season. The Yankees seek a right-handed-hitting outfielder with Aaron Judge’s flexor strain throwing a wrench into their season. The Mets could use an upgrade in center field. The Dodgers, meanwhile, could use Bader in center field, move Andy Pages to left field and struggling Michael Conforto (.194 batting average and .650 OPS) to the bench. — Jorge Castillo
Yankees in on Bader, Slater? The Yankees continue to work on adding bullpen help, according to rival evaluators, and they have talked with other teams about right-handed-hitting outfielders. Former Yankee Harrison Bader is among those discussed, as well as White Sox outfielder Austin Slater. The Yankees’ bullpen has been the weakest part of the team this year, and they will be among the contenders likely to add relief before the deadline. — Olney
Blue Jays — like most teams — need bullpen help: Toronto is in an increasingly commanding position in the AL East, and one of the advantages the Blue Jays have is the flexibility of their position player group. They have a handful of players who can change spots according to the day-to-day needs of manager John Schneider. Like so many contending teams, the Jays are working to add bullpen help, according to rival evaluators, from the enormous pool of available relievers. — Olney
Yankees eyeing a few Bucs: The Yankees’ focus is now on adding pitchers — both a starter and multiple relievers — after upgrading their position player group with the additions of Ryan McMahon and Amed Rosario over the weekend.
As Kiley McDaniel notes below, Nationals All-Star left-hander MacKenzie Gore is a possible option if the Yankees are willing to pay a steep price.
New York has also shown interest in the Pirates’ available arms, a source told ESPN. Right-handed starter Mitch Keller, left-handed reliever Caleb Ferguson and right-handed relievers David Bednar and Dennis Santana are among the pitchers Pittsburgh could move before Thursday’s deadline.
Landing Keller, a quality midrotation starter, would also require a hefty haul since the veteran is under contract over the next three seasons for about $54.5 million. So would adding Bednar, who is one of the top relievers available and under team control through next season. — Castillo
July 27
Mets are scouring CF market — and Robert could play a big part: The New York Mets are keeping an eye on centerfielders Cedric Mullins of the Baltimore Orioles and Luis Robert Jr. of the Chicago White Sox.
Robert returned to the lineup on Sunday as the designated hitter after missing the previous two games due to groin tightness. Before getting hurt, he was easily having the best month he has had over the past two seasons, hitting .351 with a .442 OBP in July. The White Sox have been waiting for an increase in prospect capital to move forward on a deal. It’s possible they finally get it this week; but they could always pick up the option in his contract this offseason and do this all over again next year. Robert’s production this month has teams intrigued. — Jesse Rogers
Not all White Sox players are on the table: The Chicago White Sox are holding out for a decent prospect return for starter Adrian Houser, who is likely to get moved by the deadline — unless teams just don’t believe in his 2.10 ERA over 11 starts. The Sox would love a 10th-to-20th-ranked prospect from an opposing organization’s farm system for him; though, teams are likely to lean toward the lower end of that instead of what Chicago prefers, closer to the higher end. The New York Yankees were among teams scouting Houser this weekend. He pitched another good one against the Chicago Cubs on Friday.
Meanwhile, depth outfielder Mike Tauchman isn’t likely to get traded. While Chicago still has another year of team control over him, the coaching staff has raved about his influence within its young clubhouse. He would be more valuable on the open market if he could play center field, but leg issues are a concern, and the White Sox aren’t likely to get much in prospect return for him. — Rogers
The market for one Marlins starter could be heating up: Teams unwilling or unable to meet the demands for Joe Ryan and MacKenzie Gore, two controllable starters who are more likely to stay put than move at this point, could easily pivot to Miami Marlins right-hander Edward Cabrera. The 27-year-old is controllable through the 2028 season and has been on a really good run, posting a 2.47 ERA since the start of May.
Another Marlins pitcher, Sandy Alcantara, has been the big name bandied about on the trade front all year, but it remains to be seen whether he’ll be moved. Alcantara has struggled in his initial return from Tommy John surgery and is controllable for an additional two years. And the Marlins — surging of late, with 20 wins in their past 28 games — can easily justify holding on to him if they are not blown away by offers. At this point, Cabrera seems more likely to be traded. — Alden Gonzalez
Gore’s market is stalled for now: Jesse Rogers noted below (July 24 update) that the Chicago Cubs are looking to add a starting pitcher with years of control and would consider including a young position player, though hopefully not a top prospect, to make that happen. MacKenzie Gore is one of those targets, and the key player the Washington Nationals are rumored to want in a return package is Matt Shaw, who isn’t yet on the table and graduated from prospect status this season with 71 MLB games.
The New York Yankees are also shopping for a starting pitcher and have some young position players of interest to rivals, but they aren’t keen on including either of their top prospects, George Lombard Jr. or Spencer Jones. If they change that stance, they could be a dark horse fit with the Nats on Gore. — McDaniel
Boston should target Tampa Bay’s Diaz: The Tampa Bay Rays‘ struggles over the past month have really surprised other teams — and the Rays’ staffers, too — and now they could shift to become dealers at the deadline. Tampa Bay first baseman Yandy Diaz would be an absolutely perfect fit for the Boston Red Sox. He’s making $10 million this year (the Red Sox would be on the hook for about a third of that), and he has a very attractive $12 million option for 2026. — Olney
Could Ozuna be one of the Braves on the move? The Atlanta Braves might be the most disappointing team in the big leagues this year, and now they are fully prepared to execute a minor sell-off before the deadline, moving relievers Raisel Iglesias (who is making $16 million this year) and Pierce Johnson ($7 million, with a $7 million option for 2026) and maybe others. Marcell Ozuna, benched recently when manager Brian Snitker decided to devote the DH spot to catchers Sean Murphy and Drake Baldwin, has 10-5 rights and can veto any trade proposal, which means the Braves are unlikely to engage any team in trade talks about Ozuna. If another team calls the Braves, however, to ask about his availability, then they will ask Ozuna if he would accept a move. The market for DHs is extremely limited, and Atlanta would presumably have to eat at least some of the $5 million or so owed to the slugger for the rest of this season. — Olney
Look for Texas to now be aggressive at the deadline: If you were to line up all the MLB president of baseball operations and general managers on a spectrum from most competitive to least, the peers of Rangers GM Chris Young would probably pick him to be the most competitive — which is why other teams assume that with Texas surging in the standings of late, the Rangers will be adding before the deadline. A few weeks ago, the assumption among those other clubs was that the Rangers would become dealers and perhaps move Adolis Garcia and others. But they have won eight of nine since the All-Star break and start Sunday just a half-game out of the third wild-card position. And remember, in 2023, Texas limped into the postseason and wound up winning the World Series. — Olney
Can Mets find an ace at deadline? The market has been very thin in teams offloading, but according to sources, the Mets continue to look around to see whether there’s a match for a starting pitcher capable of taking the ball for a Game 1, Game 2 or Game 3 of a postseason series. Merrill Kelly of the Diamondbacks could be that guy, or maybe it’s Seth Lugo of the Royals, or the Padres’ Dylan Cease. Perhaps it’s one of the two big-time starters who will be under team control beyond this season, the Marlins’ Sandy Alcantara or the Twins’ Joe Ryan. The Mets’ rotation was exceptional early in the year, before injuries and natural regression began to take a toll, and the team could use a boost in the front end of this group as they fight the Phillies for NL East supremacy. — Olney
Which way will deadline bubble teams go? The staredown continues as deadline week begins, with perhaps as many as a half-dozen teams waiting to declare their status. “This weekend is big for a lot of teams,” said one evaluator.
The Rays, who appeared to be gathering momentum a month ago, are now just a game over .500, and given the organization’s longstanding focus on maximizing the value of their players, some rival evaluators think they could now be considering dealing some pieces away.
The St. Louis Cardinals are two games over .500, with the industry waiting to see whether they will deal closer Ryan Helsley. The expectation is that they will, given the tough NL playoff landscape. The Tigers could be interested, maybe the Phillies, Mets, Dodgers or Yankees.
The Los Angeles Angels are now five games under .500, and the presumption is that they will eventually move some players before the deadline, but the Angels don’t always operate in the way teams typically do. Taylor Ward has drawn interest from other organizations. — Olney
Completed deal tracker
Click here for grades for every major deal
Rays deal catcher to Brewers, get one from Marlins
The Milwaukee Brewers acquired catcher Danny Jansen from the Tampa Bay Rays. The Rays are also acquired catcher Nick Fortes from the Miami Marlins.
The Detroit Tigers receive RHP Chris Paddack and RHP Randy Dobnak from the Minnesota Twins for C/1B Enrique Jimenez.
Braves add veteran rotation arm
The Atlanta Braves acquired veteran starting pitcher Erick Fedde from the St. Louis Cardinals for a player to be named later or cash.
Yankees make another deal for infield depth
The New York Yankees acquired utility man Amed Rosario from the Washington Nationals for two minor leaguers.
Royals get outfielder in trade with D-backs
The Kansas City Royals acquired veteran outfielder Randal Grichuk from the Arizona Diamondbacks in exchange for right-hander Andrew Hoffmann.
Yankees land infielder McMahon in deal with Rockies
The New York Yankees are acquiring third baseman Ryan McMahon in a trade with the Colorado Rockies.
Mets get bullpen help from O’s
The New York Mets have acquired left-handed reliever Gregory Soto from the Baltimore Orioles.
Mariners start trade season with deal for Naylor
The Seattle Mariners have acquired first baseman Josh Naylor from the Arizona Diamondbacks for left-hander Brandyn Garcia and right-hander Ashton Izzi.
Previous deadline buzz
July 25 updates
Will the Royals trade Lugo — or extend him? Seth Lugo is an intriguing name in the trade market, but rival evaluators don’t sense the Royals are especially motivated to make a deal. Kansas City could also use this moment to explore an extension with Lugo, to keep their deep well of starting pitching intact. — Buster Olney
Angels’ deadline plans coming into focus: Any confusion about whether the Angels will add or subtract ahead of the trade deadline has seemingly cleared up in recent days, with a four-game losing streak that has them five games under .500.
The Angels are telling teams their pending free agents are available, sources with knowledge of the situation said. That includes third baseman Yoan Moncada, utility infielder Luis Rengifo, starting pitcher Tyler Anderson and closer Kenley Jansen. Left fielder Taylor Ward, controllable through 2026, can also be had with the right deal.
The Angels famously never rebuild under owner Arte Moreno and are prone to adding even in times when they seem like long shots to contend — most notably in 2023, when they not only held on to Shohei Ohtani but also traded for Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez before collapsing in August.
At this time last year, they tried to move the likes of Anderson and Rengifo but did not believe they would have received enough back to justify holding on to them through the following season. And so it is worth noting: Even if the Angels do decide to punt on 2025, their goal would be to contend again next season.
Any moves they make would probably be geared toward that. By trading away rentals, the Angels will try to use the trade deadline to add accomplished players who can help the team next year. — Alden Gonzalez
What the Astros might be looking for: The Astros’ best fit in a hitter is someone who could play second base or left field, and they can move Jose Altuve accordingly. Per FanGraphs, the Astros have a 94.5% chance to reach the postseason; they lead the Mariners by five games in the AL West. — Buster Olney
How Arizona could shape the trade deadline: The Diamondbacks informed other teams in the past that they would “probably” be dealing away players, but even after trading Josh Naylor to Seattle, it’s unclear just how far Arizona will go. If the D-Backs decided to go all-in on trading veterans, they could reshape their organization significantly, by moving free-agents-to-be Merrill Kelly, Zac Gallen, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and, of course, Eugenio Suarez.
The perception of other front offices is that Diamondbacks owner Ken Kendrick does not want to completely offload, especially with the Dodgers drifting back toward the pack in the NL West — and as of Thursday night, Suarez wasn’t even officially on the market.
The Diamondbacks, who reached the World Series in 2023 after winning just 84 games during the regular season, won their first three games after the All-Star break, but have subsequently lost three in a row. What some rival evaluators believe is that if the D-Backs keep dealing, it’ll be because of a nudge from the front office. Arizona has been extensively scouting other organizations in preparation. — Buster Olney
White Sox starter drawing interest from contenders: About a half-dozen or more scouts will be in attendance at Rate Field on Friday night when Adrian Houser takes the mound for the White Sox. He has compiled a 1.89 ERA in 10 starts for Chicago after being picked up midseason. Teams don’t believe they’ll have to give up a lot to acquire him, and he could make for a good back-end starter or depth piece for a contender. The White Sox are likely to move him at his peak, and Friday could be the final look for those who are interested. — Jesse Rogers
July 24 updates
Could Mets land this deadline’s top slugger? Eugenio Suarez could be an intriguing option for the Mets as they’ve gotten little production out of Mark Vientos at third base. And if things work out and Suarez wants to stay — and they want him to — he could also provide protection for the Mets at first base in case Pete Alonso moves on next season. The Mets rank 23rd in OPS at third, so why wouldn’t they inquire about Suarez, knowing they can hand the position back to Vientos in 2026 if they wish. — Jesse Rogers
July 23 updates
Houston is in the market for a third baseman: Add the Astros to the list of contenders looking for a third baseman. With All-Star Isaac Paredes expected to miss significant time because of what manager Joe Espada described as a “pretty serious” right hamstring strain, the Astros have begun poking around for available third basemen. One of them is the Rockies’ Ryan McMahon, who also has drawn interest from a few other clubs.
The 30-year-old represents a solid veteran option. McMahon is slashing .217/.314/.403 with 16 home runs, and the metrics indicate he has been one of the top defensive third basemen in the majors this season. He is under contract over the next two seasons for $32 million, so he wouldn’t be just a rental, which should raise the Rockies’ asking price. — Jorge Castillo
A big addition to the available deadline starting pitching options? A surprise name has emerged in the starting pitcher market: Dylan Cease, who will be eligible for free agency at year’s end. Perception of other teams is that the Padres are intent on making a push for the playoffs and would use Cease to help fill other roster needs. Mets, AL East teams, Cubs among teams that have talked about him. — Buster Olney
How Cubs are approaching deadline: The Cubs are looking for a starting pitcher first and foremost, but won’t part with any top prospects for rentals. They would be willing to trade a young hitter for a cost-controlled pitcher or one already under contract past this season. They are desperate to add an arm who can help while Jameson Taillon recovers from a calf injury. Bullpen games in Taillon’s place haven’t gone well. — Jesse Rogers
Will Twins trade top pitchers? Several high-profile teams are in need of bullpen help ahead of the trade deadline — including the Mets, Yankees, Phillies and Dodgers — and the Twins have two of the best available in Griffin Jax and Jhoan Duran. The sense is that at least one of them will be traded, but those who are looking for relief help expect the asking price to be very high, partly because both of them are controllable through 2027 and partly because the Twins’ uncertain ownership situation has clouded the approach with those who are not pending free agents.
The Twins are widely expected to trade outfielder Harrison Bader, super-utility player Willi Castro, starter Chris Paddack and lefty reliever Danny Coulombe. But Jax, Duran and young starter Joe Ryan are the ones who would bring back the biggest return. The Twins are said to be listening on everyone. But the team being up for sale since October, and in limbo ever since prospective buyer Justin Ishbia increased his ownership stake in the White Sox in early June, has complicated matters with longer-term players. — Alden Gonzalez
July 22 updates
An Orioles starting pitcher to watch: It seems very likely that Charlie Morton (3.47 ERA last 12 appearances) will be traded, within a relatively thin starting pitching market with a lot of teams looking for rotation help — the Padres, Yankees, maybe the Mets or Astros; a number of teams have expressed interest. In the past, Morton has had a preference to pitch for a team closer to the East Coast and his Florida home, but he doesn’t control that. O’s GM Mike Elias does. — Buster Olney
Will Cleveland deal All-Star outfielder? The player asked about the most on the Guardians’ roster is Steven Kwan, but given that he is two and a half years away from free agency, it’s unlikely he’ll be traded, according to sources. Kwan’s slash line this year: .288/.352/.398. He also has 11 stolen bases and has made consecutive All-Star appearances. — Olney
Braves not looking to move Murphy: Sean Murphy‘s name has been tossed around in trade speculation, but according to sources, he will not be available. Atlanta’s catcher is playing well this year and will be playing under a high-value contract for the next three seasons — $15 million per year from 2026 to 2028, plus a team option in ’29. And the Braves are set up well with the right-handed-hitting Murphy and left-handed-hitting Drake Baldwin perhaps sharing the catching and DH spots into the future. — Olney
Why the 2022 Cy Young winner isn’t the most in-demand Marlins starter: Edward Cabrera has become more coveted than Sandy Alcantara, who teams believe might take an offseason to fix. Alcantara’s strikeout-to-walk ratio is scary low — just 1.9 — and his ERA is 7.14. Cabrera, on the other hand, is striking out more than a batter per inning and his ERA sits at 3.61. The 27-year-old right-hander will come at a heavy cost for opposing teams. — Jesse Rogers
How Kansas City is approaching the trade deadline: The Royals have signaled a willingness to trade, but with an eye toward competing again next year — meaning they aren’t willing to part with the core of their pitching staff. Other teams say Kansas City is (unsurprisingly) looking to upgrade its future offense in whatever it does.
Right-handed starter Seth Lugo will be the most-watched Royal before the deadline, since he holds a $15 million player option for 2026 “that you’d assume he’s going to turn down,” said one rival staffer. That’ll make it more difficult for other teams to place a trade value on him: The Royals could want to market him as more than a mere rental, while other teams figure he’ll go into free agency in the fall when he turns down his option. — Olney
What the Dodgers need at the deadline: The Dodgers’ offense has been a source of consternation lately, with Max Muncy out, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman slumping, and key hitters tasked with lengthening out the lineup — Teoscar Hernandez, Tommy Edman and Michael Conforto — also struggling.
But the Dodgers’ focus ahead of the deadline is still clearly the bullpen, specifically a high-leverage, right-handed reliever. Dodgers relievers lead the major leagues in innings pitched by a wide margin. Blake Treinen will be back soon, and Michael Kopech and Brusdar Graterol are expected to join him later in the season. But the Dodgers need at least one other trusted arm late in games.
It’s a stunning development, considering they returned the core of a bullpen that played a big role in last year’s championship run, then added Tanner Scott and Kirby Yates in free agency. But Scott and Yates have had their struggles, and there are enough injury concerns with several others that it’s a need. — Alden Gonzalez
Which D-backs starter is most coveted? The Diamondbacks are getting as many calls — if not more — about Zac Gallen as they are for Merrill Kelly, even though the latter starting pitcher is having the better season. Teams interested in adding to their rotations still have more faith in the 29-year-old Gallen than the 36-year-old Kelly. — Rogers
Who are the White Sox looking to deal? Chicago’s Adrian Houser seems likely to move, as a second-tier starter who has performed well this season. The 32-year-old right-hander was released by the Rangers in May but has been very effective since joining the White Sox rotation, giving up only two homers in 57⅔ innings and generating an ERA+ of 226. Nobody is taking those numbers at face value, but evaluators do view him as a market option. The White Sox also have some relievers worth considering.
But it seems unlikely that Luis Robert Jr. — once projected as a centerpiece of this deadline — will be dealt, unless a team makes a big bet on a player who has either underperformed or been hurt this year. The White Sox could continue to wait on Robert’s talent to manifest and his trade value to be restored by picking up his $20 million option for next year, which is hardly out of the question for a team with little future payroll obligation. — Olney
Why Rockies infielder could be popular deadline option: Colorado’s Ryan McMahon is the consolation prize for teams that miss out on Eugenio Suarez — if he’s traded at all. The Cubs could have interest and would pair him with Matt Shaw as a lefty/righty combo at third base. — Rogers
Does San Diego have enough to offer to make a big deal? The Padres have multiple needs ahead of the trade deadline — a left fielder, a catcher, a back-end starter. How adequately they can address them remains to be seen. The upper levels of their farm system have thinned out in recent years, and their budget might be tight.
The Padres dipped under MLB’s luxury-tax threshold last year, resetting the penalties. But FanGraphs projects their competitive balance tax payroll to finish at $263 million this year, easily clearing the 2025 threshold and just barely putting them into the second tier, triggering a 12% surcharge.
Padres general manager A.J. Preller might have to get creative in order to address his needs. One way he can do that is by buying and selling simultaneously. The Padres have several high-profile players who can hit the market this offseason — Dylan Cease, Michael King, Robert Suarez, Luis Arraez — and a few others who can hit the open market after 2026. Don’t be surprised to see Preller leverage at least one of those players, and their salaries, to help fill multiple needs. — Gonzalez
Which Orioles could be on the move? Not surprisingly, Baltimore is perceived as a dealer and is expected by other teams to move center fielder Cedric Mullins, first baseman/designated hitter Ryan O’Hearn and some relievers. — Olney
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Bill Connelly
No matter how we go about setting our preseason expectations for the 2025 college football season — polls, computer projections, pure gut instincts — we’re going to end up mostly right. We’re going to assume that the teams that were the best last season will be the best this season, and that’s going to bear out in most instances.
In other cases, however, we’re going to be hilariously incorrect. Take last season’s preseason top 10: Six of those teams ended up in the year-end top six and scored College Football Playoff bids, and two others were among the top three teams to miss the CFP. Very accurate! But then, preseason No. 9 Michigan and No. 10 Florida State fell from a combined 28-1 the year before to 10-15. Both finished unranked. They basically switched bodies, “Freaky Friday” style, with Arizona State and Indiana, who went from a combined 6-18 in 2023 to 24-5 with top-10 finishes and playoff bids.
Every season is mostly predictable except for a handful of absolute shocks. And the goal of this annual piece is to identify which of last season’s good surprise teams are most likely to sustain their gains and which of the bad surprise programs are most likely to bounce back. Using SP+ ratings and luck factors as our guide, we can usually pinpoint the likeliest teams for each category.
In last year’s edition of this column, the seven “most likely to sustain breakthroughs” teams I named went from a combined 49-41 with an average SP+ ranking of 53.9 to 60-32 and 40.6, respectively. Colorado, Colorado State and Miami won an additional 11 more games between them, while Colorado, Miami, Rutgers and Virginia Tech each improved by at least 14 more spots in SP+. Meanwhile, the six teams I named for the “most likely to rebound from a regression season” list went from a combined 27-47 with an 81.5 average ranking to 42-34 and 54.7. Five improved their win totals, and all six improved their SP+ rankings. Success!
The preseason poll rankings and final SP+ projections for 2025 are coming in August. But while we wait, let’s once again predict some of this coming season’s happier stories. Which of 2024’s unexpected breakthroughs might find even further heights? Which of last year’s disappointments are likeliest to bounce back?
Teams most likely to sustain 2024 gains
When our team surges to unexpected success in a given season, we like to think of this as the new reality. We’re good now! That’s never going to change again! Unfortunately, reality rarely agrees with that. Over the past 20 years, we’ve seen an average of 1.9 teams improving by at least 20 ratings points in SP+ and an average of 18.0 improving by at least 10 points. On average, these teams regress the next season 61% of the time, 32% by at least a touchdown.
These numbers haven’t necessarily changed in the 2020s, aka the transfer portal era. The rules of roster management have been completely altered, but since 2021 we’ve still seen 18.3 teams improving by 10-plus points in a given season. Interestingly, only 54% regressed the next year, 25% by a touchdown or more. We don’t yet know whether this is a small-sample effect or a genuine shift in the data, so I’ll still lean on the historic averages, but it’s something to watch.
In 2024, 16 teams improved by at least 10 points. Based on the averages above, we can expect about 40% of them — six or seven — to improve further in 2025. Only two were projected to do so in my most recent SP+ rankings, which means I’ll have to stray from the numbers to pull the list together. But after writing lengthy conference previews about each team, here are the teams I believe are the likeliest candidates to build on 2024’s surprise success:
2023: 3-9 record, 107th in SP+ (-11.3 adjusted points per game, or 11.3 worse than the average college football team)
2024: 11-3, 35th (+9.4)
2025 projection (as of May): 8.4 average wins, 22nd (+12.2)
From my Big 12 preview: “It’s hard to know what to do with a late-season surge. ASU was solid for about two-thirds of the season and outstanding for one-third, and while that wasn’t enough to earn the trust of SP+ — and a 6-2 record in one-score finishes will be tough to duplicate — enough of last year’s key contributors return to think that this could be a top-15-level team again.”
Because of all those close wins, it might be difficult for Kenny Dillingham’s Sun Devils to match last year’s 11-win total, especially without Cam Skattebo around to grind out tough-as-hell yards at times. But Skattebo is just about the only major departure. Quarterback Sam Leavitt should have an improved receiving corps, where Jordyn Tyson is joined by late-2024 big-play producer Malik McClain, veteran transfer Jalen Moss (Fresno State) and high-upside youngsters such as Noble Johnson (Clemson) and Jaren Hamilton (Alabama). Meanwhile, the offensive line and a defense that also surged down the stretch are both loaded with seniors.
This is a team built for another run and further improvement on paper, even if the god of close games turns against it at some point.
2023: 3-9 record, 97th in SP+ (-8.3 adjusted PPG)
2024: 8-5, 38th (+8.4)
2025 projection (as of May): 6.7 average wins, 35th (+7.5)
Again from the Big 12 preview: “Jake Spavital’s offense was magnificent. Sawyer Robertson threw for 3,071 yards and 28 TDs, while backs Bryson Washington and Dawson Pendergrass rushed for 1,699 rushing yards and 18 TDs. Baylor gained at least 20 yards on 8.7% of its snaps (10th in FBS) while gaining zero or fewer on just 27.7% (19th). That combination will score you lots of points. … The Bears scored 31 or more points nine times last year, and it would be a surprise if they did so fewer times in 2025. Big 12 contention, then, is up to the defense.”
Baylor won the last six games of the regular season, scoring an average of 12.1 points more than projected, and almost all of the reasons for the offensive surge return. It’s indeed up to Matt Powledge’s defense — which also improved in 2024, but only to 63rd in defensive SP+ — to determine the Bears’ fate. Experience won’t be an issue. Dave Aranda added 13 transfers to go with the 10 returnees who saw 200-plus snaps last year. And there are known playmakers such as tackle Jackie Marshall, incoming linebacker Travion Barnes (FIU) and nickelback Carl Williams IV, too. After rebounding into the SP+ top 40 last season, it sure looks like the Bears are built to crack the top 30 this time around.
2023: 3-9 record, 119th in SP+ (-15.2 adjusted PPG)
2024: 9-4, 87th (-4.0)
2025 projection (as of May): 7.7 average wins, 91st (-7.1)
From my MAC preview: “[Pete Lembo] engineered immediate improvement in his return to MAC life, and now leading rusher Al-Jay Henderson, leading receiver Victor Snow, three starting O-linemen and 12 of 17 defenders with at least 200 snaps all return. … From a pure height-and-weight standpoint, the depth chart should look like something from a power conference.”
Buffalo was extremely all-or-nothing last season, overachieving against SP+ projections by at least 11 points six times and underachieving by that much three times. But that’s a net gain! Even without any semblance of offensive efficiency, the Bulls fielded their best team in four years. This time around, they should have enough offensive experience to avoid quite as many three-and-outs, and maybe no Group of 5 defense returns a proven trio of disruptors in end Kobe Stewart, outside linebacker Dion Crawford and inside linebacker Red Murdock. SP+ projects UB as the third-best team in the MAC, but after a season-opening trip to Minnesota — not a gimme for the Golden Gophers — the Bulls are at least slight projected favorites in every game.
I wish I felt better about their quarterback situation, where either journeyman Ta’Quan Roberson or little-used backup Gunnar Gray is likely to start. But aside from maybe Toledo, no other MAC team brings this much upside to the table in 2025.
2023: 5-7 record, 75th in SP+ (-2.5 adjusted PPG)
2024: 10-3, 31st (+9.6)
2025 projection (as of May): 8.7 average wins, 19th (+14.3)
From my Big Ten preview: “The Illini won 10 games for the first time in 23 years, and [Bret] Bielema rang in 2025 by embarrassing Shane Beamer on national television. Illinois finished 16th in the AP poll, and now it leads the conference in returning production. … If experience produces sturdy play early in the season, look out. By the end of September, the Illini will have played relative toss-ups at Duke and Indiana and at home against USC. Win all three, and they’re going to be in the playoff discussion for quite a while. But it’s hard to get the breaks you need in close games for two straight years.”
Like Arizona State, Illinois could be another “improve on paper, regress in the win column” team depending on how long the good fortune in close games continues. But of the top four projected teams in the Big Ten, the Illini play only one and should win quite a few games by well more than one score. New go-to running back Aidan Laughery could enjoy a huge season, and if quarterback Luke Altmyer gets a good year from at least one transfer receiver — the most likely of the bunch: Hudson Clement (West Virginia) — this offense should be Illinois’ first top-50 attack in 15 years (!). I’m concerned about the remodeled defensive line, but coordinator Aaron Henry gets the benefit of the doubt. This should be a solid team.
0:42
Carson Beck: Joining Miami feels like ‘a full-circle moment’
Carson Beck joins “SportsCenter” to discuss growing up a Florida Gators fan and playing college football for some of their biggest rivals.
2023: 7-6 record, 28th in SP+ (+9.6 adjusted PPG)
2024: 10-3, 10th (+21.6)
2025 projection (as of May): 9.2 average wins, 12th (+18.8)
From my ACC preview: “After a dismal first season in charge — Miami fell to 5-7 and 71st in SP+ in 2022 — things have improved dramatically. The Canes jumped to 7-6 and 28th in 2023, and even with a defense that was actively working against the team for half the season, they improved further, to 10-3 and 10th in SP+, last season. … I like what Miami will have in the trenches, and despite the occasional INTs, [Georgia transfer Carson] Beck is a very good QB. But Miami will need the teardowns in the receiving corps and secondary to stick. I’m pretty sure the latter will, but I’m not sure Beck will have enough strong pass catchers.”
This one’s definitely more about sustaining gains than prepping for another surge. You can only rise so much higher than 10th. But I do think Mario Cristobal’s Hurricanes have a chance of matching last year’s general quality, albeit in a more balanced way: The offense will almost certainly regress a bit while the defense improves. If the latter matches or outpaces the former, voila, sustained gains!
With good health and better help up front, defensive line star Rueben Bain Jr. could have a huge year, and I really like the additions in the secondary, especially ultra-aggressive safety Zechariah Poyser (Jacksonville State). The Miami defense should have never been as poor as it was late last fall, but it will have a chance to make amends in 2025.
2023: 3-9 record, 91st in SP+ (-7.3 adjusted PPG)
2024: 7-6, 51st (+4.9)
2025 projection (as of May): 6.1 average wins, 47th (+3.4)
From the ACC preview: “As delightful as they looked during their unbeaten start, they looked equally lost during an 0-6 finish. They more than doubled their win total in the most disappointing possible way. … [Desmond Reid] aside, most of last year’s most exciting players were freshmen and sophomores, and one can see how experience might sand down rough edges and make Pitt an ACC dark horse. But that late-season collapse was pretty ugly. It’s up to the Panthers to prove whether the first or second half of the season showed us the way forward.”
It’s hard to trust any Pitt prediction. The Panthers improved by five wins in 2021, regressed by six in 2023, then improved by four in 2024. In that tiny span, they have ranked as high as sixth in offensive SP+ and as low as 108th. They’re capable of anything. But last year’s offense jumped to 54th and would have risen even further if quarterback Eli Holstein had stayed healthy. With Holstein, Reid, a more experienced offensive line and big-time defensive disruptors such as linebacker Kyle Louis and end Jimmy Scott, this is at least a top-40 team. We’ll see about the “ACC dark horse” line above, but further improvement feels likely.
Teams most likely to rebound from a 2024 stumble
In a universe in which you’re measured by wins and losses, everything is zero-sum: If someone’s rising, someone’s falling. And the trend for collapses is almost identical to the trend for sudden surges. Over the past 20 years, an average of 1.8 teams have collapsed by at least 20 adjusted points per game in SP+, and an average of 16.9 have fallen by at least 10 points. Of those teams that stumble, 64% of them improve the next season and 36% by at least a touchdown. The trends of the 2020s have been relatively similar: Only about 14.5 teams have regressed by 10-plus points over the past four seasons — again, we’ll see if that’s a trend — and 68% have rebounded the next year.
Last year, two teams regressed by 20-plus points: the aforementioned Florida State Seminoles and Michigan Wolverines. Twelve others fell by at least 10 points. Averages suggest about 36% of these 14 teams — around five — will improve by a touchdown or more in 2025. Here are the five I think are most likely:
2023: 9-4 record, 45th in SP+ (+5.9 adjusted PPG)
2024: 5-7, 111th (-11.7)
2025 projection (as of May): 6.2 average wins, 94th (-7.3)
From my Mountain West preview: “A lost season became an encouraging one late: Over their last five games, the Falcons overachieved against projections by an average of 17.7 points per game, and after a 20-3 loss to Army dropped them to 1-7, they won their last four games, most impressively destroying Oregon State, 28-0. The full-season averages still weren’t great, but as with Michigan, Air Force basically saw its win total cut in half from the previous season but somehow still ended up in a good mood.”
Even with Air Force’s recent success — at least nine wins in four consecutive full seasons — it was easy to predict a collapse in 2024, as the Falcons had one of the lowest returning production averages in recent memory. It’s almost as easy to predict a solid rebound this year, mainly because it already started late last season. If junior Josh Johnson is half-decent at quarterback, the offense should get back on track with help from fullback Dylan Carson, big-play slot back Cade Harris and error-free center Costen Cooley. The defense has quite a bit to replace in the secondary, but veteran defensive tackle Payton Zdroik should ensure disruption up front. This team should at least climb back to 7-5 or 8-4.
0:52
FSU QB Castellanos stands by Alabama jab
Florida State quarterback Tommy Castellanos speaks to reporters about what he meant by his jab at Alabama during the summer.
2023: 13-1 record, ninth in SP+ (+19.4 adjusted PPG)
2024: 2-10, 83rd (-3.2)
2025 projection (as of May): 6.8 average wins, 36th (+7.2)
Again from the ACC preview: “This was a collapse on the scale of Bobby Petrino’s last season at Louisville, Texas’ first season after 2009 BCS Championship disappointment and Notre Dame’s 2007 swoon under Charlie Weis. And it’s noteworthy that none of the coaches in charge during those collapses could right the ship. But [Mike] Norvell will try. … There are enough proven entities to assume the defense will bounce back. In fact, the collapse was so significant last season that we should assume some progression toward the mean everywhere. But how much of a rebound can you pull off after such a collapse?”
This is some pretty low-hanging fruit — if the Seminoles are average in 2025, that will qualify as solid improvement after last season’s disintegration. I’m not sure what to expect from a remodeled offense; new offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn has an awfully Malzahn-friendly QB in the speedy transfer Tommy Castellanos (Boston College) and new potential big-play receivers in Duce Robinson (USC), Squirrel White (Tennessee) and Randy Pittman Jr. (UCF), but it might be hard to get a rebuilt offensive line up to speed. Regardless, the defensive front six has some new playmakers, and again, the bar for improvement is incredibly low. I’m not sure how many games Norvell needs to win to save his job, but the Noles will almost certainly not go 2-10 again.
2023: 15-0 record, first in SP+ (+31.3 adjusted PPG)
2024: 8-5, 26th (+10.6)
2025 projection (as of May): 9.8 average wins, 10th (+21.5)
From the Big Ten preview: “The Wolverines went unbeaten when scoring at least 24 points (national scoring average: 28.0), but they reached that mark in only six of 13 games thanks primarily to a black hole at the QB position. They ranked 91st in Total QBR and 131st — last nationally among non-service academies — in passing yards per game (129.1). … Either five-star freshman Bryce Underwood or veteran transfer Mikey Keene (Fresno State) will begin the season at QB for Moore’s second Michigan team, and it’s probably fair to assume that Underwood will finish it there. His first spring was up-and-down, but going from the aforementioned black hole to the best high school prospect in the country is quite the leap.”
Seeing Michigan projected 10th overall was a bit concerning, as the offense still has loads of questions. But I’d be surprised if the Wolverines didn’t have a top-10 defense, and the schedule features only one projected top-15 team, per SP+. And they won eight games and beat Ohio State and Alabama while getting almost nothing from the QB. Even if Underwood isn’t ready to lead a CFP team yet, a return to 9-3 or so and occasional actual passing yardage don’t seem like too much to ask.
2023: 3-9 record, 116th in SP+ (-14.4 adjusted PPG)
2024: 1-11, 133rd (-25.6)
2025 projection (as of May): 3.4 average wins, 128th (-17.7)
From my Sun Belt preview: “What happens when you graft one-quarter of last year’s Sun Belt championship roster onto the worst roster in the conference? We’re going to find out! After signing more than 50 transfers in addition to the normal freshman/JUCO signing class, [Charles Huff] has almost completely flipped the roster in six months. … SP+ is setting the bar low because things like “recent history” still tend to matter more often than not. But as with Marshall, this is a total, unprojectable roster reset.”
The story of Southern Miss in 2025 could only take place in 2025 and no time before. Southern Miss was wretched last season, but almost no one’s left from that team. Meanwhile, quarterback Braylon Braxton, five receivers, four defensive linemen and eight defensive backs — including star corner Josh Moten — and quite a few others followed Charles Huff from Marshall to Hattiesburg.
I have no idea how to set accurate expectations, but as with Florida State, this is low-hanging fruit. It will be an improvement if the Golden Eagles go 3-9 and rank in the 120s. And with zero opponents projected higher than 71st in SP+, topping the 4.5 wins set at ESPN BET doesn’t seem outlandish.
2023: 14-1 record, 13th in SP+ (+16.4 adjusted PPG)
2024: 6-7, 58th (+3.1)
2025 projection (as of May): 6.3 average wins, 39th (+6.4)
Again from the Big Ten preview: “If [Demond Williams Jr.] is genuinely good — and doesn’t take a million sacks — then there’s a legitimate chance for a second-year leap for the UW offense. He’ll have a relatively experienced line in front of him and a skill corps that includes 1,000-yard back Jonah Coleman (and a physical backup in sophomore Adam Mohammed), receivers Denzel Boston and Penn State transfer Omari Evans, and another sophomore in big-play tight end Decker DeGraaf. … Fisch generated lots of traction in his second season at Arizona, and it’s not hard to envision something similar happening at UW. But he’ll need to hit on a lot of transfers, and he’ll need his faith in a guy with 153 dropbacks wholly rewarded.”
In the past four seasons, Washington has bounced from 4-8 to 11-2 to 14-1 to 6-7. That’s enough to give you motion sickness, but the combination of Williams, Coleman, Boston and a semi-experienced offensive line should do good things. Plus, the defense has enough exciting new players — tackle Ta’ita’i Uiagalelei (Arizona), linebacker Xe’ree Alexander (UCF), corner Tacario Davis (Arizona), safeties CJ Christian (Florida International) and Alex McLaughlin (NAU) — that new coordinator Ryan Walters might get away with the aggressive man defense he usually prefers. Playing four projected top-20 teams could make 8-4 or so the ceiling this year, but improvement still seems likely.
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Jesse Rogers
Chicago Cubs Hall of Fame second baseman Ryne Sandberg died on Monday at age 65. Sandberg, known for his power, speed and defensive prowess during his 16-year major league career, was the face of the Cubs during his 15 seasons with the franchise and a fan favorite throughout the sport.
Originally diagnosed with metastatic prostate cancer in January of 2024, Sandberg was still around the Cubs as recently as spring training — and just as he did in his playing days, he made his presence felt with his signature combination of power and grace.
As the baseball world mourns the loss of an icon, those who knew Sandberg best shared their favorite stories about the Hall of Famer.
‘Ryno would be out there at 9 a.m.’
Sandberg was traded from the Philadelphia Phillies to the Cubs in January 1982 after struggling during his first call-up in Philly. A legendarily hard worker, Sandberg was willing to do whatever it took to make sure his stay in Chicago would go differently.
Larry Bowa, who was dealt along with Sandberg in the trade for veteran infielder Ivan DeJesus, remembers the hours Sandberg put in as he transformed from a light-hitting rookie in Philadelphia to a budding superstar in Chicago.
“I think about how he handled himself when he first got called up. He struggled out of the gate. I watched this guy not let it affect him. It might have affected him on the inside, but the way he handled himself on the outside was great,” Bowa said.
“Ryno would be out there at 9 a.m. [Manager] Jim Frey would tell him [to] hit every ball over the tarp and into the seats down the left-field line in foul territory. Hit it with authority over that tarp. Ryno looked at him like he was crazy. ‘I want every ball with authority over that tarp,’ Frey kept telling him. He did it for a week straight. That’s how he learned how to pull the ball.”
‘Just ungodly consistent’
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How Ryne Sandberg will be remembered in Chicago
Jesse Rogers reflects on Ryne Sandberg’s career in Chicago after he died on Monday at the age of 65.
After his power stroke clicked, it didn’t take long for Sandberg to take his game to the highest level. He was named National League MVP in 1984 after hitting .314 with 19 home runs and 19 triples, stealing 32 bases and leading the Cubs to their first postseason appearance in 39 years.
Perhaps no one had a better view for Sandberg’s dominant campaign than his close friend, Cubs leadoff hitter Bobby Dernier. The two batted 1-2 in the Chicago lineup and earned the nickname “The Daily Double” as they combined to score 208 runs that season.
“Just ungodly consistent,” Dernier said of what made Sandberg so great. “And the style of game back then demanded a little bit of baserunning prowess and being capable of stealing bases and scoring a lot of runs. And so that was our style. He was tremendous.
“Pitchers were always paying a little more attention to me on the bases than him at the plate, and that was a big mistake and he’d take full advantage. He’d almost giggle about it, is what I remember in the dugout.”
Sandberg cemented his legacy during that season with a signature game against the St. Louis Cardinals on June 23, forever known in Chicago as “The Sandberg Game.” He hit two game-tying home runs off Hall of Fame closer Bruce Sutter in the ninth and 10th innings before the Cubs won the game in the 11th — in front of a national TV audience.
“After he tied it up, I ended up hitting the ball off the wall, but if mine goes out, it’s probably never called the Sandberg game,” outfielder Gary Matthews said with a laugh. “He was great at everything that he did. I hit behind him and he was always on base.”
‘He had a perfect swing for his home ballpark’
Sandberg hit 282 career home runs during an era of baseball where second baseman weren’t known for that kind of power, but he was more than just a long ball threat. Six of those home runs — the second most off an opposing pitcher — were hit off Hall of Famer John Smoltz, who recalled one memorable afternoon for Sandberg.
“I gave up two home runs to him in a game and I had a [autograph] card show after the game and everyone in the world knew I gave up two home runs to Ryne Sandberg,” Smoltz said. “One was an inside-the-park home run. Those fans at the card show reminded me of that.
“He had a perfect swing for his home ballpark. He had a flatter swing that worked great for the angles at Wrigley Field, especially when the wind was blowing in.”
Sandberg was more than just an offensive threat; he also won nine consecutive Gold Glove awards during his time with the Cubs and posted a 123-game errorless streak.
“I used to tell Joe Morgan, ‘This guy doesn’t have to take a second seat to anybody on defense,'” Matthews said. “Morgan would say Ryne’s uniform was always clean. I said, ‘Well, you have to dive because you can’t get in front of it! Don’t get on him for perfecting the backhand.’ In the end Joe said, ‘You’re right.'”
‘He’s in a class by himself’
For all of his accomplishments on the field, the way Sandberg handled himself as a competitor and away from the game is what many who knew him best will remember about him.
“He’s an outstanding human being,” Bowa said. “That’s what I think of. Such a good family guy. His mental toughness is off the charts. Don’t let people deceive you by that little laugh he has all the time. He wanted to win as much as anybody. I’ve been around Pete Rose, and Ryno is right there.”
Smoltz added: “He’s in a class by himself. You would never know he was one of the greatest players ever, just by the way he carried himself and the ‘aw, shucks’ type attitude.
“I love competing against greatness that has integrity and character like Ryne Sandberg had. The way he carried himself, the way he was as a person is what I think about. It sure was nice to see him represent the sport and the city he played for.”
“Joy,” Dernier said. “That’s the first thing, and way so many more happiness types of stories. And it’s a grin on my face to think about him. And yeah, right now it’s melancholy that we know he’s gotten called up to the real big leagues. But I’m glad I knew him and I loved him being underestimated.”
‘Oh, man, I loved Ryno, but he’s lucky he was that good at baseball’
Of course, there were a few moments in Sandberg’s career where he wasn’t as gracious. In the Cubs clubhouse, teammates saw a different side of the Hall of Famer — a playful troublemaker and prankster.
“We had those chairs directors they use making movies, held together by sticks,” Matthews said. “Ryno would always take the sticks out, put the seat back in, and daily I’d fall to the ground. He’d be over there snickering or walking away.
“Or he would load your cigarette up and make it explode in a non-harmful way. Then when you figured it out, he would put two of those in the pack. He thought that was the funniest thing.”
Despite that kind of back-and-forth, Matthews and Sandberg often golfed together.
“I would ask for a few strokes,” Matthews said. “He would politely say, ‘no strokes, play better.’ He would hit some balls you couldn’t believe. Ball after ball. He would hit one and know it’s a good one but he’d ask, ‘Do you think that was any good?’ And just smile at me.
“Oh, man, I loved Ryno, but he’s lucky he was that good at baseball,” Matthews said with a laugh.
“He’d stir the pot and then walk away and look over his shoulder,” Bowa added. “He’d be cracking up after getting us going. He was so quiet outwardly with you guys [media], but not with us.”
‘He made such an impact on me ‘
After his playing days, Sandberg served as the manager of the Philadelphia Phillies from 2013 to 2015 before returning to Chicago, often putting on a uniform as a spring instructor and imparting the lessons from his Hall of Fame career to a new generation of Cubs.
“I just think it’s cool that he’s somebody that has kind of done everything in our sport but still doesn’t approach the game with any kind of ego,” current Chicago second baseman Nico Hoerner said. “He doesn’t talk like he has the answers to everything or the conversation is never about him.
“He’s kind of softspoken, but then if you got him going on something he really cared about, it’s really cool to hear him open up, whether it’s routines he had or how he took care of his body or just fun memories with teammates or playing at Wrigley.”
Shortstop Dansby Swanson added: “Just such a top-shelf human being. He made such an impact on me even in my short time of being able to be around him. Just an unbelievable human being and someone that I’m very, very grateful to have met and spent time with, whether it’s talking about life or talking about ball.”
It’s those attributes, the ones the baseball world got to see on the field and the ones only his teammates were able to witness, that were missed in retirement. But his attitude about life stands out for everyone.
“We talked about a lot of things, about defense and offense, but we talked about life, too,” rookie third baseman Matt Shaw said. “When he first came up, he struggled a little bit early on and he was like, ‘No matter what happens, you just got to keep believing in yourself and keep going.’ And I definitely take that to heart, and that’s something that I definitely think about a lot — is that belief to just to keep going.”
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