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It’s a two-game Thursday in the league championship series as the 2023 MLB playoffs roll on.

Will the Houston Astros even the ALCS after a big Game 3 win in Arlington? Can the Arizona Diamondbacks find some home cooking against the Philadelphia Phillies after a rough start to the NLCS in Philadelphia?

ESPN MLB experts Alden Gonzalez, Buster Olney, Jeff Passan, Jesse Rogers and David Schoenfield break down where both series stand going into Thursday’s games, and we have all the action covered with live updates and takeaways from Texas and Arizona as the games play out.

Key links: Full playoffs schedule and results

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Live updates | Matchups & lineups


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Thursday’s matchups

Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacks

Game 3: 5:07 p.m. ET (Ranger Suarez vs Brandon Pfaadt)

Phillies lead series 2-0

Are the Phillies as unstoppable as they’ve looked in the first two games?

Schoenfield: Given the importance of home runs this postseason (teams that out-homer their opponents are 17-3), I asked Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo if his team will have to find a way to out-homer the Phillies to have a chance in the series. His response: “Obviously with you making that statement, I will definitely agree with you. It’s like having a team full of 3-pointers against somebody that only shoots 2s.” Right now, the Phillies have all the 3-point shooters. Unless the Diamondbacks suddenly sign Steph Curry and Kevin Durant, this series looks over.

Rogers: The short answer is yes — but remember the Phillies have lost one of their two road games this postseason. Getting them away from Citizens Bank Park is Arizona’s best chance, but even that providing enough of a boost might be wishful thinking considering how the Phillies are playing right now. Let’s face it, the Diamondbacks will be more than happy with their season even if they lose in the NLCS. Bottom line, it’ll be a victory in itself for the D-backs if the series returns to Philadelphia.

Passan: Well, they are playing about as close to immaculate baseball as exists. Their offense wallops home runs. Their starters strike out hitters and limit walks. Their relievers throw gas and pump strikes. Their defense operates cleanly and efficiently. Seriously, it’s hard to find a flaw with the Phillies right now, and they’ve been playing that brand of baseball since the postseason began. But unstoppable? This is baseball. There is no such thing as unstoppable. Brandon Pfaadt could shut down Philadelphia in Game 3 or Ranger Suarez could implode, and suddenly the Phillies’ vibes would feel plenty different.

How much will getting out of Philadelphia, and home to Chase Field, help the D-backs?

Schoenfield: Well, I have a feeling there may be a lot of red at Chase Field — and I mean with a maroon tint. The “get-in” price before the Phillies won the first two games was $115 and that has now dropped to $15. Any transplant from the greater Philadelphia area can now pick up tickets on the cheap. According to TickPick, the “get-in” price for Philly was $467, so we may even see some Phillies fans taking a little three-day vacation to soak in some sun in the desert. Oh: And Bryce Harper is hot. Kyle Schwarber is hot. Nick Castellanos is hot. Trea Turner is hot. Game 3 starter Ranger Suarez is hot.

Rogers: Let’s put it this way, if Game 3 starter Brandon Pfaadt had to pitch in Philadelphia, it would likely go even worse than what we saw happen to Arizona pitchers in the first two games. He has a fighting chance at home — especially if he can get past the first inning, when the Phillies love to jump on the opposing starter. Without a true stat to prove it — other than their home record — there’s little doubt the Philly crowd is having an impact. Every fan base could learn something: There is such a thing as a 10th man in baseball.

Passan: That’s like asking how getting out of jail will help the man who yearns for freedom. For the past two games, the Diamondbacks have been playing in the loudest, most hostile, unrelenting, unforgiving stadium in baseball — a shop of horrors for visiting teams, particularly in the postseason. Chase isn’t Citizens Bank Park West, by any means, but at least every run the Phillies score won’t be followed with some ear-splitting cheering. It’s incumbent on Phoenix-area fans to give their team at least a sliver of the advantage Philadelphia fans do theirs.


Houston Astros at Texas Rangers

Game 4: 8:03 p.m. ET (Jose Urquidy vs. Andrew Heaney)

Rangers lead series 2-1

Now that the Astros have won a game in Arlington, how likely is this series to go the distance?

Gonzalez: I don’t know if it’ll go the distance, but it lines up with my overarching thought going into Game 3: that this series is far from over. Losing the first two home games in a best-of-seven series is usually a death sentence, especially in this stage. But these Astros exist in their own stratosphere. They’re in the ALCS for the seventh straight season. And for some inexplicable reason, they were far better on the road this season (51-30) than they were at home (39-42). They’re especially comfortable at Globe Life Field, where many of their hitters say they see pitches particularly well. One can easily see them taking at least two of three to send this back to Houston. And that’s where it’d get interesting.

Olney: I don’t think it’ll go that far. One team or the other will seize momentum in Game 4 — if the Astros win, they’ll run the table. If the Rangers win Game 4, I think they’ll finish it off here in Arlington. The pitching depth of both teams is going to be challenged, and in particular, so much is going to fall on the shoulders of Rangers lefty Andrew Heaney, who has made only one appearance this month. They need him to be the stopper who attempts to slow the Houston hitters after they beat up Max Scherzer and the relievers who followed in Game 3.

Passan: The Rangers still own home-field advantage. They still can finish off the ALCS at Globe Life Field. They still have a No. 8 hitter (Josh Jung) who can homer off the most unhittable postseason pitcher we’ve ever seen and a No. 9 hitter (Leody Taveras) who got on base six of his first seven times this series and stole a homer from Yordan Alvarez in Game 3. And they still have Jordan Montgomery and Nathan Eovaldi scheduled to start Games 5 and 6, a back end of the bullpen that got rested up the past two days and a lineup that has been the best in the American League this postseason. Only fools count out the Astros, but the advantages remain with the Rangers, and the odds still say this series is more likely to end in five or six than seven.

How should the Rangers approach facing the red-hot Yordan Alvarez for the rest of this series?

Gonzalez: Clearly, there is no real answer here. If there was, I trust Bruce Bochy and all of the coaches and analysts around him to find it before we do. But it’s interesting to see that, while putting up incredibly gaudy numbers throughout these playoffs, Alvarez is also chasing at a 37% rate, nine percentage points higher than the major league average during the regular season and more than 10 percentage points higher than his own mark. It’s a relatively small sample size, of course. But there might be something to him trying to force action with other Astros hitters struggling behind him. So there you go — make him chase. But you best not miss.

Olney: Alvarez is the best hitter on earth, on the moon, in another galaxy, wherever he happens to be swinging a bat. After the damage he did in Game 3, you have to believe a sleepless Bruce Bochy is going to think about giving him the Barry Bonds treatment for the rest of this series, especially with Jose Abreu and Kyle Tucker aligned behind him. At this point, the question of whether you pitch to Alvarez or not is like choosing between risking a home run allowed for the possibility of an out. Your best chance of retiring seems to be installing three Leody Taverases at the fence and hoping for a robbery.

Passan: Thankfully, Buster, a cloning machine to triple Leody Taveras doesn’t exist, because the Astros would use it to nonuple Yordan Alvarez and just pummel opponents into oblivion. For now, one is plenty for Bruce Bochy to handle. And if anyone managing today knows something about intentionally walking left-handed sluggers, it’s Bochy, who saw opponents do it to Barry Bonds 43 times in 2007. Alvarez does have a history of falling into funks in alternating postseason series, but his efforts in Games 2 and 3 suggest that is ending here — and if a leverage situation comes up (and Jordan Montgomery isn’t on the mound fooling Alvarez with Death Balls), Bochy shouldn’t be afraid to call for the autowalk and take his chances with someone who isn’t one of the best hitters alive.

Game 4 lineups

Astros

Jose Altuve (R) 2B
Maricio Dubon (R) CF
Alex Bregman (R) 3B
Yordan Alvarez (L) DH
Jose Abreu (R) 1B
Kyle Tucker (L) RF
Chas McCormick (R) LF
Jeremy Pena (R) SS
Martin Maldonado (R) C

Rangers

Marcus Semien (R) 2B
Corey Seager (L) SS
Evan Carter (S) LF
Adolis Garcia (R) RF
Mitch Garver (R) DH
Jonah Heim (S) C
Nathaniel Lowe (L) 1B
Josh Jung (R) 3B
Leody Taveras (S) CF

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‘Incredible’ Tkachuk returns, nets 2 for Panthers

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'Incredible' Tkachuk returns, nets 2 for Panthers

TAMPA, Fla. — Matthew Tkachuk made his long-awaited return to the lineup and was back to his old self quickly on Tuesday night for the Florida Panthers, who opened this postseason the way they ended last postseason: With a win.

Playing for the first time in more than two months after dealing with a lower-body injury, Tkachuk scored two second-period goals in his return game, as the Panthers handled the rival Tampa Bay Lightning 6-2 in this Eastern Conference first-round series opener at Amalie Arena.

Those two goals were both of the power-play variety, the first putting Florida up 4-1 — the second goal for the Panthers in a 14-second span — and the next one pushing the lead to 5-1 midway through the second period.

It was just like old times: Tkachuk got twisted up with Tampa Bay’s Brandon Hagel — someone he fought during the 4 Nations Face-Off tournament — after one whistle, took the game’s first penalty on a roughing call (leading to Tampa Bay’s first goal), then made sure his name was all over the score sheet.

Florida coach Paul Maurice, in his in-game, bench interview with ESPN’s Emily Kaplan, said he was comfortable with what he was seeing from Tkachuk in his first game back and expected him to “be the difference-maker” for the Panthers.

“That’s what he is for us,” Maurice said. “He’s got an incredible set of hands, got an incredible gift for the emotional needs of a game, when you need a hit, when you need a big play. He’s been great for us.”

Sam Bennett and Sam Reinhart also scored for the Panthers, and veteran defenseman Nate Schmidt, not known for his offense, added two more goals, as Florida, which won the Stanley Cup last June, hammered an Atlantic Division foe in front of a sellout crowd, setting up an all-important Game 2 on Thursday.

Tampa Bay goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy will need to be sharper in that game, after a Tuesday performance to forget. The two-time Stanley Cup winner allowed all six goals on just 16 shots, closing with a .625 save percentage. Across the ice, Florida’s Sergei Bobrovsky made 20 saves en route to the win.

“The series isn’t won in one game, so there’s a positive. We had a bunch of guys tonight playing their first playoff games, and I thought guys handled it fairly well,” Tampa Bay coach Jon Cooper said. “But in the end, we gave up six goals. We’re a pretty decent defensive team, and we have a very good [penalty-kill unit], and we gave up three [goals] on that. … In the end, those are areas of strength of ours, so I’m pretty confident we can button those up, and we’ll be OK.”

Jake Guentzel, in his first season with the club, and Brayden Point scored for Tampa Bay. But the Lightning played the final 33:30 without center Anthony Cirelli, and it showed. There was no immediate word why the 27-year-old center was out.

“We gave up 16 shots, and that’s usually a good night, but tonight wasn’t that. They’re a good team, we know they have good players,” Tampa Bay defenseman Victor Hedman said. “So, for us, it’s all about refocusing, make sure we have a good practice tomorrow, and get ready for the next one.”

Whether Tkachuk would even play in Game 1 wasn’t certain until just before game time. Tkachuk went through practices Saturday and Monday, then took part in the team’s day-of-game skate Tuesday before the decision on his return was made. Maurice even indicated that it could come down to the final few minutes before the 8:48 p.m. start time of the game.

“It’s not really a guy you can put a label on,” Schmidt said of Tkachuk. “He’s such a unicorn of a player. But, more than anything, just how he is in the room, getting the guys fired up for the game, you feel his energy, you feel his excitement.”

Tkachuk hadn’t played for the Panthers since Feb. 8 because of a lower-body injury suffered during the 4 Nations Face-Off tournament two months ago. He missed the team’s final 25 games of the regular season, yet still finished with 22 goals and 57 points — third most on the team in all three categories. He was also second on the Panthers this season with 11 power-play goals.

“There’s no better time to be an athlete,” Tkachuk told Kaplan in a postgame interview, in reference to the postseason. “This is the time of our lives. And just getting a win here in Game 1 is the cherry on top.”

Panthers forward Brad Marchand, acquired at the NHL trade deadline from the Boston Bruins, made his postseason debut for his new team in the win and also played with Tkachuk for the first time. Marchand had an assist and two shots on net in his 17:15 of ice time, and seemed to fit right in with Florida’s dominant forward group.

“Both teams will look at the tape and find things that they can do better,” Maurice said after the win. “But there isn’t an established identity to the series yet.”

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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Limping Lightning seek ‘another level’ after loss

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Limping Lightning seek 'another level' after loss

Tampa Bay Lightning defenseman Ryan McDonagh stated the obvious: The 6-2 humbling they suffered against the arch-rival Florida Panthers on Tuesday night was not how they wanted to begin the latest Battle of Florida.

“It’s definitely a salty feeling in here. We didn’t have a great start to this series like we talked about,” the veteran said. “But we know we can be better. We’ve got another level and we’ll find a way to get to that.”

The Panthers took a 1-0 series lead by scoring six times on 16 shots against Lightning goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy. After Sam Bennett and Jake Guentzel traded goals in the first period, the Panthers scored four straight times — including goals by Nate Schmidt and Matthew Tkachuk that were 14 seconds apart in the second period. Schmidt’s goal was unsuccessfully challenged for goalie interference by the Lightning, earning a delay of game penalty. Tkachuk scored on the ensuing power play to make it 4-1.

“Yeah, you’ve got to stop that bleeding,” defenseman Victor Hedman said. “We give up that third one. The challenge that didn’t go our way and we give up one right away. That’s tough, but we got to make sure it stops there and not give up the fifth one as well.”

Tkachuk, returning to the Florida lineup for the first time after being injured in February’s 4 Nations Face-Off, scored his second of the game on the power play at 9:44 of the second period to make it 5-1 for the Panthers, en route to the 6-2 rout.

“You see him being able to step into a game and be impactful,” Schmidt said of Tkachuk. “That’s who he is. He’s a playoff player.”

Lightning coach Jon Cooper, who has won two of the three Battle of Florida playoff series against the Panthers, appreciated his team’s effort despite the result.

“I love this team. They try. They’re always trying, and they did that again tonight. Sometimes the results aren’t there. Most nights they are,” he said. “We can sit here and dissect this game all we want. The bottom line is we lost. Whether you lose 6-2 or you lose 1-0 in overtime, we lost the game. Turn the page and move on. Let’s sit here in 48 hours or whatever it is and dissect that one. This one’s over.”

The Panthers are the reigning Stanley Cup champion. Cooper noted that a number of his players were seeing their first playoff action in Game 1.

“We had a bunch of guys tonight playing their first playoff games, and I thought guys handled it fairly well. But in the end we gave up six goals,” he said. “The series isn’t won in one game, so there’s a positive.”

That said, it took just one game for the Panthers to flex on the Lightning defense and special teams, going 3-for-3 on the power play. One huge factor in that domination was an injury to Lightning center Anthony Cirelli, their best defensive forward and a key to their penalty kill. He left the game after taking two shifts in the second period. There was no update on his status after the game.

Game 2 is Thursday night at Amalie Arena in Tampa.

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Amaya blast keys Cubs, ‘something you dream of’

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Amaya blast keys Cubs, 'something you dream of'

CHICAGO — Catcher Miguel Amaya was confident he’d be jogging around the bases when he blasted a two-out, ninth-inning baseball high into the Wrigley Field sky with his Chicago Cubs trailing 10-9 to the Los Angeles Dodgers on Tuesday night.

He was right — but just barely.

Amaya’s 388-foot shot landed in the center field basket, sending the home crowd into a frenzy as Dodgers closer Tanner Scott blew the save. And one inning later, the Cubs won the game 11-10 on an Ian Happ run-scoring single off Noah Davis, capping yet another wild affair at Wrigley.

According to Statcast, Amaya’s blast would have been a home run in exactly one park in the majors.

“As a baseball player, its something you dream of,” Amaya said. “As soon as I hit, I felt it was out but then I saw the center fielder getting into position to catch it. Then it was, ‘Oh my god, I have to run,’ but it was enough to get out.

“I love those basket balls.”

It was the second time in five days that both teams playing at Wrigley scored 10 or more runs; on Friday, the Cubs beat the Diamondbacks 13-11 thanks to a six-run eighth inning that was preceded by a 10-run frame by Arizona.

On Tuesday, the Cubs led 5-3 after the first inning, but the Dodgers took a 10-7 lead thanks to a five-run seventh aided by an error from third baseman Gage Workman. As has been the case all month, the Cubs kept fighting back. Right fielder Kyle Tucker brought them within one with an eighth-inning home run before Amaya tied it in the ninth.

“They’ve done some amazing things and some resilient things, most importantly,” Cubs manager Craig Counsell said of the team’s play on its homestand. “You win games like that early in the season and it’s a great carry forward for the rest of the season.”

The Cubs improved to 15-10 thanks to a high-powered offense that leads the league in scoring at just over six runs per game. They’ve tallied 10 or more runs in seven games already, their most through 25 games of a season since 1895, according to ESPN Research. No other team this season has done it more than 3 times.

Counsell credited his bullpen in shutting down the Dodgers in the final few innings.

The Cubs also did well facing Dodgers superstar Shohei Ohtani. He went 0 for 4, lowering his batting average against them this year to .167. Against all other teams, he’s hitting .302.

He also went 0-for-3 against Shota Imanaga and is now 0-for-10 against the Cubs starter.

“The next 10 at-bats he might get 10 hits,” Imanaga said. “It’s been a small miracle that it’s happened 10 times in a row.”

The Cubs keep on performing miracles at the plate both in the colder conditions this month and in the few games where the weather has been favorable for hitters. That included Tuesday, when it was 71 degrees with the wind blowing out at first pitch. It led to six home runs, none bigger than Amaya’s.

“Basket hurt us a couple times last year,” Counsell said with a smirk. “It was helpful tonight.”

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