College football Week 8 preview: How will the unbeatens fare this weekend?
Week 8 is here and the number of undefeated teams keeps dwindling, so which ones will be left standing at the end? Well, nine of 11 unbeaten teams are in action this weekend, including Penn State at Ohio State. One of those squads will suffer its first loss of the season.
Elsewhere, defenses have been impressive from more than just the undefeated group, and our reporters break down everything to know heading into this weekend.
What’s on deck for CFB’s undefeated teams in Week 8 and beyond?
Georgia (bye) and Liberty (Tuesday win vs. Middle Tennessee) do not play this weekend, so as they regroup, we’ll focus on the rest of the Week 8 slate.
Washington 6-0 vs. Arizona State
ESPN’s Football Power Index gives the Huskies a 14.2% chance of not just winning out through the regular season, but through the Pac-12 title game. Which is one way to say it probably isn’t going to happen.
Of the 11 remaining unbeaten teams, six have better odds. Looking at the schedule, it’s easy to see why. The Huskies have three ranked teams left before finishing the regular season against Washington State in the Apple Cup. The good news for the Huskies, though, is that if they end up being measured against other one-loss teams, their strength of schedule at the end of the year will be a benefit.
With Arizona State and Stanford the next two weeks, there is a clear expectation the Huskies will be 8-0. That’s when it gets tricky. They go to USC, home against Utah and to Oregon State. That’s three very different opponents that will pose significantly different challenges. While the Huskies should be favored in all three, the margin for error will be tight. — Kyle Bonagura
Penn State 6-0 (at Ohio State)
After losing to Ohio State in 2018, Penn State coach James Franklin sounded off on how the program had risen from average to good to great but had yet to reach an elite level. He spoke emotionally about how PSU couldn’t be comfortable with where it stood and needed to do “all the little things” to reach the next level.
“We’ve been knocking at the door long enough,” Franklin said then.
Four more Ohio State losses later, Penn State’s time to break through has come. The Lions have some talent edges over the Buckeyes, especially on defense, and boast a first-year starting quarterback in Drew Allar, who might have a higher ceiling. Much has been made of Penn State’s conservative approach with Allar, who averages just 6.93 yards per attempt, 93rd nationally, and has only 11 completions of 20 yards or longer (tied for 114th nationally).
As good as the Nittany Lions are on defense — No. 1 nationally in fewest yards allowed, rushing defense, passing defense and sacks per game — they likely will need to cut it loose more, beginning Saturday at Ohio State. But Franklin is pleased with Allar’s patience as a young QB.
“Every quarterback wants to throw the corner route or the go route or the post,” Franklin said. “Who is throwing checkdowns in their backyard, right? … He’s doing a really good job of keeping the main thing the main thing, which is protecting the football, trying to create explosive plays when they’re there, but not forcing them.”
Penn State’s season will be shaped by how it performs Saturday and Nov. 11 against Michigan. The Lions are 4-14 against Ohio State and Michigan under Franklin, who is 80-22 against everyone else while at the school. Penn State hasn’t beaten both heavyweights since 2008. The Michigan matchup, even more so than Ohio State, has become especially difficult for Franklin’s teams.
But the opportunity is there, and Penn State has the pieces in place to take the step Franklin has wanted for years. — Adam Rittenberg
Ohio State 6-0 (vs. Penn State)
Ohio State doesn’t really look like a team poised to run the table, but its dominant play in the past six quarters suggests a shift is coming. The Buckeyes outclassed Maryland in the second half Oct. 7, and never let Purdue get traction in last week’s 41-7 road win.
Obviously, coach Ryan Day’s team will need to maintain and elevate its play this week against Penn State, which looks like a better version of the squad that held a fourth-quarter lead over Ohio State last year until JT Tuimoloau was prolific in the closing minutes. Ohio State’s offense needs quarterback Kyle McCord to keep progressing — he has five touchdowns, no interceptions and 596 passing yards in his past two games, but has had some hiccups against pressure — while also finding greater balance on offense and protecting better. Penn State leads the nation in sacks (4.5 per game) and is tied for seventh nationally in overall team pressures (99).
“This will be our biggest challenge to date,” Day said Tuesday. “They’re very twitchy, very quick, they get after the quarterback at a high level. Both ends are NFL players for sure. So our tackles, in particular, are going to have to do a great job.”
Ohio State’s defense could ultimately be the unit that propels the Buckeyes to an undefeated season. The unit doesn’t pop in any of the popular categories — sacks (105th), takeaways (tied for 92nd), tackles for loss (tied for 82nd) — but has limited big plays and ultimately kept points off the board. Coordinator Jim Knowles’ less-is-more approach could pay off this week against a solid but not spectacular Penn State offense, and ultimately against a marauding Michigan team on the road. Knowles on Tuesday said he doesn’t like the bend-but-don’t-break label, classifying his defense simply as: “One that prevents points.”
The Buckeyes’ schedule outside of Penn State and Michigan is manageable, especially since Wisconsin just lost starting quarterback Tanner Mordecai to injury. But finding a way to outlast arguably Penn State’s best team since 2016 will be a key first step.
“There’s a lot riding on every game,” Day said. “We know that and so it’s my job to bring it every week, every Saturday and push as hard as I can.” — Adam Rittenberg
Michigan 7-0 (at Michigan State)
Michigan has started the season undefeated through seven games for the third year in a row. The Wolverines have faced an easier schedule so far, but have dominated opponents week by week.
Michigan is the first team since 1936 to score 30 or more points while allowing 10 or fewer points in each of its first seven games. Easier opponents or not, that is impressive and Michigan has been a balanced team throughout.
The Wolverines have scored 30 or more points in 10 straight games, which is the longest streak in program history. As it stands, the team has a receiver in Roman Wilson, who is tied for most touchdown receptions among all FBS players (9), and a running back in Blake Corum, who is tied for the most rushing touchdowns among all FBS backs (12).
It’s not the Michigan of old, when opponents could load up the box and just try to stop the run, as the passing game has been prominently displayed this season.
But November is going to be the tough test for Michigan. The team will face Penn State on the road, Maryland and Ohio State in November. Happy Valley is never an easy place to play and the Nittany Lions are playing outstanding football. Ohio State has lost twice in a row to Michigan and will do anything it can to stop that streak.
Despite the way Michigan is playing, those games will be tough tests, but the Wolverines have described themselves as bullies and the team that wants to bring the adversity to its opponents. How good this team is and how far it can go will depend on the November results.
“There was a real calm, a real understanding that when we get punched in the mouth, we’re going to respond,” coach Jim Harbaugh said. “That’s what’s going to happen. Everybody has that kind of faith in the leadership of our team, the character of our team. There’s a devotion to the fundamentals of Michigan football and we just go to work at responding.
“That’s the best strategy you can do and that’s what we lean back on.” — Tom VanHaaren
The Sooners rank second in FPI, just behind Ohio State, but have the highest probability of winning out of any undefeated team at 41.1%. Their remaining schedule ranks 45th in strength as the rest of the league, with the exception of Texas, has had wildly unpredictable results.
But OU’s Dillon Gabriel has been unflappable, leading a Sooners offense that is averaging 45.2 points per game (fourth-best nationally), while Danny Stutsman headlines a defense allowing just 14 ppg, seventh best. Now that the annual pressure cooker against Texas is over, with Gabriel delivering a legendary comeback drive with no timeouts, going 75 yards in just over a minute for a 34-30 win, OU can think bigger.
“Our mindset is that we’ve already put all the pressure on ourselves,” Oklahoma defensive end Ethan Downs told reporters on Monday. “We have high expectations, and we have goals. The goals are still the same as they were before the hype and after. We appreciate all the recognition, but our goals exceed far beyond that. What happens in the building and what happens in every practice is what we’re focused on. It hasn’t changed.”
The biggest remaining challengers for the Sooners include a trip to Stillwater on Nov. 4 in front of an emotional Oklahoma State crowd for what will be the last Bedlam rivalry game before the Sooners depart for the SEC, facing a Cowboys program that has surged back to life following a 33-7 loss at home to South Alabama and another at Iowa State.
After UCF, the Sooners will travel to Kansas to face a Jayhawks squad that can score on anyone. They’ll finish the season with a home game against TCU, which also appeared to find its footing with a new quarterback last weekend. In between, the Sooners will play a gritty West Virginia team and endure a trip to Provo for BYU’s only conference battle with them. All are winnable, but the Big 12 never seems to follow the script. But as it stands now, FPI projects the Sooners have a 70.1% chance to make the College Football Playoff and a 39.9% chance to make the title game, both best in the country. — Dave Wilson
North Carolina 6-0 (vs. Virginia)
North Carolina hasn’t found itself ranked in the top 10 often, but when it happens, it doesn’t typically go well for the Tar Heels. Since Mack Brown left Chapel Hill the first time in 1998, UNC has played five games as a top-10 team. It’s lost four of them.
Well, UNC is 6-0 and ranked 10th. Time for an implosion?
“We’ve got to handle success,” Brown said. “That’s something we haven’t done very well around here. To be a great team, you’ve got to play to a standard, and that standard is to win every game.”
UNC was last in the top 10 in the 2021 preseason poll, and it quickly lost to Virginia Tech in the opener. He doesn’t foresee such a stumble this week, with Virginia on the docket.
For one, the Cavaliers are scuffling at 1-5 — though they won their last game, vs. William and Mary, and are coming off an open date. More importantly, Brown said, the focus for his team is different this time around.
In last week’s win over Miami, the Heels ran for 235 yards, Drake Maye threw four touchdowns and the defense forced four turnovers. And yet, Brown said the team was as critical of itself after Saturday’s victory as it has been after any win since he returned to Chapel Hill five years ago.
“We’re at a different place with this team and this staff,” he said.
The team certainly is in a different place on defense, with last year’s overwhelmed unit now playing with confidence.
It’s different in the run game, where Omarion Hampton has blossomed as one of the nation’s most productive runners.
And it’s far different in the passing game, with Tez Walker showing why UNC was so eager to get him on the field after he had three touchdown grabs last week.
But more than anything, North Carolina is different in its expectations.
Two years ago, when Brown announced to his team it was ranked eighth in the preseason polls, the players erupted in cheers. On Sunday, when he let them know they were 10th, no one budged.
“I think they appreciate being where they are,” he said, “and they know it’s fleeting. So you better win.” — David Hale
Florida State 6-0 (vs. Duke)
Of all the undefeated teams listed here, only Oklahoma has a better chance to finish unbeaten than Florida State, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index. But that doesn’t necessarily mean the Seminoles have a cakewalk on their remaining schedule. Whether Duke has Riley Leonard available or not — he remains day to day with a high ankle sprain — the Blue Devils defense will present FSU’s biggest challenge since Clemson. Duke ranks No. 4 in the nation in scoring defense, one of four schools in the country giving up less than 10 points per game.
“You look at the standard of good defenses. This is one that you would point to,” Florida State coach Mike Norvell said. “All 11 guys on their defense tackle, they can run, cover. They’re disruptive in the schemes that they present. Got really good pressure packages that challenge offenses. You can see the confidence in how they play. These are the games you love being a part of. It’s going to be some fun X’s and O’s to see who can try to create any type of advantage.”
Indeed, on the flip side, Florida State is one of nine offenses in the country averaging more than 40 points per game. It has finally found a nice balance between its run and passing game, and will have to match the intensity and physicality that Duke plays with — particularly on defense. If Duke can control the line of scrimmage and force the Seminoles into mistakes, the Blue Devils will give themselves a chance to win.
Beyond Duke, Florida State still has both its in-state rivals left on the schedule — Miami at home Nov. 11 and at Florida on Nov. 25 — and a tricky game at Pitt on Nov. 4. The Panthers are 2-4, but they just took down unbeaten Louisville. Doing it again should not be out of the question. — Andrea Adelson
Granted, things just got trickier with the loss of quarterback Zac Larrier to a knee injury. His timetable is uncertain at the moment; coach Troy Calhoun said only that Larrier would “likely be out for a while” and that he didn’t know how long. Still, Air Force has quite a bit going for it in the quest to get to 12-0 or 13-0.
For one thing, backup quarterback Jensen Jones has experience and has posted similar numbers in a smaller sample. Jones will still have a particularly explosive set of backs at his disposal, too, feeding players like John Lee Eldridge III (10.1 yards per carry) and Owen Burk (6.3). His defense should remain awesome as well: Air Force has been awfully stingy in recent years and boasts A-plus playmakers in linebackers Bo Richter, PJ Ramsey and Alec Mock (combined: 18.5 tackles for loss, 8.5 sacks) and safety Trey Taylor. Calhoun has led this team for nearly 20 years, and this is one of his most talented casts.
Plus, the remaining schedule is awfully navigable. Granted, the next four games are all away from home, and they include rivalry contests against both Navy and Army, but these next four opponents have a combined record of 10-15. The Falcons’ path to 10-0 is solid, and they might have a chance to get Larrier back before they finish the season against 5-1 UNLV, Boise State and whoever they might play in a theoretical MWC championship game.
But that’s down the road. This week the focus is on Navy. The Falcons have won three in a row in this series, but they were by diminishing margins — 40-7 in 2020, 23-3 in 2021, 13-10 in 2022 — and Navy has won two in a row after a 1-3 start. Taking down an increasingly confident rival with your backup quarterback never qualifies as easy. — Bill Connelly
James Madison 6-0 (at Marshall on Thursday)
The Dukes have only two games remaining against teams that are over .500, beginning Thursday night with Marshall (4-2) and in two weeks (Nov. 4) against Georgia State (5-1). Fresh off its 41-13 dispatching of Georgia Southern last week, James Madison’s offense is in high gear — tallying at least 31 points in five of its six games.
In its second season as an FBS program, Curt Cignetti has led a successful transition to the Sun Belt for a program that enjoyed four seasons of at least 12 wins and three berths in the FCS national championship game since 2016 (including winning the national title in 2016). Ineligible to play in the postseason as its two-year transition to Division I concludes, James Madison has a carrot of an undefeated season in reach. It hasn’t finished unbeaten since 1975 (9-0-1).
Whether the program gets there may depend on its offense (34.5 ppg) continuing to put the foot on the gas behind senior quarterback Jordan McCloud (1,432 passing yards with 14 touchdowns and three interceptions) and hope its defense tightens things a bit. — Blake Baumgartner
Which defenses have impressed so far this season?
North Carolina
The North Carolina defense has been impressive when you consider where this group was a year ago. Headed into the season, many wondered how much improvement we would see from a group that ranked either near or at the bottom in the ACC in nearly every statistical category in 2022. Defensive coordinator Gene Chizik promised the group would play much better in Year 2 in the system, and he has been right. North Carolina is allowing nearly 100 yards and 10 points per game fewer than last year; its run defense is allowing 50 fewer yards per game; it already has reached its interception total for all of last year (9); it has 16 sacks, one away from the total last year; and it already has more tackles for loss (35) than last year. Kaimon Rucker has emerged at the rush end position, the revamped secondary has played better thanks, in part, to key transfer addition Alijah Huzzie, and Cedric Gray has developed into a terrific all-around linebacker. — Adelson
The last drive against Oklahoma notwithstanding, the Texas defense has been the difference in its turnaround this year. The Longhorns have already faced Alabama, a solid Kansas offense (though Jalon Daniels did not play) and a stellar Oklahoma unit, and rank 15th nationally in points allowed (16.3) and are allowing 323.3 total yards, 26th-best. The Longhorns are allowing rushing first downs 14.3% of plays, first nationally, and are eighth overall in allowing a conversion on 28.4% of third downs. — Wilson
Penn State
Michigan’s defense has been dominant and the numbers that unit is putting up are notable, but Penn State’s defense has edged the Wolverines in many top categories. The Nittany Lions are first among all FBS programs in yards allowed per game, giving up 193.7 yards. The team is third overall in rush yards allowed (72.5) and first in pass yards allowed per game (121.2). The team is also second among all FBS programs in sacks with 27, first in opponent completion percentage, first in pass touchdowns allowed, giving up just one all season, and the list goes on with this defense. Penn State will have its work cut out for it in the latter half of the season, with Ohio State, Maryland and Michigan, but the defense has been nearly flawless. — VanHaaren
How good has the Utah defense been? Consider this: The Utes are 5-1 and are ranked No. 14 in the country despite having the nation’s No. 111-ranked scoring offense. That’s not possible without an elite defense. The Utes rank No. 5 nationally in scoring (12.2 ppg) and have forced opponents to go three-and-out 46.5% of the time, the third-best mark in the country. — Bonagura
For a change, it’s not Georgia or not Alabama that has grabbed the headlines defensively the first part of the season in the SEC, although both are outstanding. It’s Tim Banks’ Tennessee defense that has stolen the show and blossomed into one of the most improved units in the country after finishing 91st nationally a year ago in total defense.
The Vols lead the SEC with just 10 touchdowns allowed in six games and are second to Georgia in yards per play allowed (4.41) and second to Texas A&M in sacks per game (4). Sophomore defensive end James Pearce Jr. has emerged as one of the top pass-rushers in the country, and only in their 29-16 loss to Florida have the Vols given up more than two touchdowns in a game. In three of their six contests, they’ve allowed just one touchdown, and the two touchdowns UTSA scored came in the second half after Tennessee led 31-0 at the half.
The matchup Saturday against Alabama should be especially interesting. Tennessee is one of the best teams in the country at sacking the quarterback (24), while Alabama is one of the worst at giving up sacks (31). — Chris Low
Quotes of the week
“You can’t sit around and eat the poisonous cheese. You can’t listen to the talk. You can’t pat yourself on the back, because we’re human beings. How are we going to play? Are we going to walk around all week and be cool and talk about all these stats and about how many times we’ve been 6-0?” — North Carolina coach Mack Brown on getting complacent after an undefeated start.
“We’re in the ass-kicking business, and business is booming.” — Linebacker Mike Barrett said after Michigan’s win against Indiana.
“I was frustrated and kicked something I shouldn’t have kicked and thought I was OK, and then the adrenaline of the game wore off.” — Shane Beamer on how he broke his foot following South Carolina’s loss last week.
“Are they in love with this game or are they in like with it?” — Deion Sanders’ comments following Colorado’s loss to Stanford.
Sports
Inside the Red Sox’s plan to revolutionize hitting — and the three young stars at the center of it
FORT MYERS, Fla. — Inside the batting cages at the Boston Red Sox‘s spring training complex, where the future of hitting is playing out in real time, the best trio of position prospects in a generation blossomed.
Kristian Campbell, Roman Anthony and Marcelo Mayer have spent hundreds of hours in the building, rotating around its 10 tunnels, though their best work always seems to happen in Cage 4, right inside the main entrance. When they walk through the door, underneath a sign with a Ted Williams quote in big, capital letters — “WE’RE GOING TO LEARN HOW TO DO TWO THINGS … WE’RE GOING TO HIT IT HARD AND WE’RE GOING TO HIT IT IN THE AIR” — they enter a hitting laboratory. Every cage is equipped with a HitTrax that gives them real-time batted-ball data. Trash cans house an array of training bats — overweight and underweight, long and short, skinny. A Trajekt robot, capable of replicating every pitch thrown in the major leagues over the past half-decade, is joined by a dozen other standard pitching machines. Exit velocity leaderboards dot the walls.
Here, Campbell, Anthony and Mayer are in the middle of everything, appropriate for what their future holds. They’re learning modern hitting philosophy, applying it in an array of competitions that aim to turn their tools into skills, jamming to Bachata and Reggaeton and rap and rock, talking immense amounts of trash. On a small desk inside Cage 4 sit two binders outlining the Red Sox’s hitting philosophy: one in English and one in Spanish. These binders outline what the organization’s hitting coaches refer to as its Core Four tenets: swing decisions, bat speed, bat-to-ball skill and ball flight.
As pitchers have leveraged baseball’s sabermetric revolution into designer offerings and a sportwide velocity jump, hitting has fallen behind. Batting average and weighted on-base average (a metric that measures productivity at the plate) are at low points over the past half-century. Pitchers regularly flummox hitters. The Red Sox believe they can bridge the gap. And the new big three — a nickname that was originally given to Mayer, Anthony and Kyle Teel, the catching prospect at the heart of the trade that brought ace Garrett Crochet to Boston over the winter — are the philosophy’s beta test.
“The training environment is the biggest thing with us,” said Anthony, a 20-year-old outfielder. “We push each other so much, and it’s always that competitive — friendly, but competitive — environment we set in the cage. We talk crap to each other. We really try to get the best out of each other and really beat each other in training. And I think it makes us better when we take the field.”
There, their results are undeniable. Mayer, 22, is a smooth-fielding, left-handed-hitting shortstop who fell to the Red Sox with the No. 4 pick in the 2021 draft, weathered injuries and saw his exit velocity spike and strikeout rate dip last year. Anthony, who signed for a well-over-slot $2.5 million bonus after Boston chose him with the 79th pick in the 2022 draft, is widely regarded as the best hitting prospect in the minor leagues. The 22-year-old Campbell, a fourth-round pick in 2023 as a draft-eligible redshirt freshman, was a revelation last season, the consensus Minor League Player of the Year who went from unheralded to a prospect coveted even more than Anthony by some teams despite an unorthodox swing.
All three will be in the major leagues sooner than later — for Campbell, perhaps by Opening Day. They’ll bring with them a shared experience they believe will transfer to the big leagues. When they eventually face Yankees ace Gerrit Cole, they’ll have a sense of what to expect, not just because they stood in against him on the Trajekt but because coaches took his best fastballs (100 mph at the top of the zone), added an extra half-foot of rise to them and challenged the kids to hit it.
“You want to be surrounded with the best,” Anthony said, “because it makes you want to become the best.”
IN SEPTEMBER 2023, after the minor league season ended, the Red Sox gathered their minor league prospects at their spring training complex for a two-month offseason camp. Boston’s staff assesses every hitter to form an action plan, and Campbell’s was clear. He made excellent swing decisions and had elite bat-to-ball ability, both of which manifested themselves as he hit .376 with 29 walks and 17 strikeouts over 217 plate appearances in his lone season at Georgia Tech. While the 6-foot-3, 210-pound Campbell swung the bat hard, the Red Sox saw room for improvement. Ball flight represented the biggest area of need after his average launch angle during 22 postdraft pro games was just 2 degrees.
Inside the complex’s cafeteria one day in camp, Campbell was surveying his options when Red Sox hitting coordinator John Soteropulos meandered by. Soteropulos had joined the team after three years as a hitting coach at Driveline Baseball, the Seattle-based think tank where philosophies have pervaded the game over the past decade. Soteropulos noticed shepherd’s pie on the cafeteria’s menu and alerted Campbell.
“You need to eat that,” Soteropulos said. “It’s got bat speed in it.”
“I hope it has ball flight, too,” Campbell said.
While Mayer entered the MLB ecosystem as a top prospect and Anthony a tooled-up could-be star, Campbell was different. Taken with the compensatory pick the Red Sox received when longtime shortstop Xander Bogaerts signed with the San Diego Padres, Campbell signed for less than $500,000. His swing was janky. He needed work. Soteropulos, director of hitting and fellow Driveline alum Jason Ochart and assistant farm director Chris Stasio were empowered by Red Sox management to implement their new systems in hopes of extracting the best version of later-round picks like Campbell — and if it worked, he would represent the proof of concept.
From the moment he arrived in the organization, Campbell impressed the staff with his desire to learn. And challenging players beyond the perfunctory repetitions hitters take — the same soft flips in the batting cage, the same 60 mph batting practice before every game — is at the heart of Boston’s philosophy.
Professional baseball players, the thinking goes, are elite problem solvers. Giving them complex problems drives them to adapt. If they train in environments that don’t take them outside of their comfort zone, improvement is negligible. Challenging hitters, whether with the Trajekt or with machine balls that fly only when struck on the sweet spot or with slim bats that emphasize barrel control or hundreds of other ways, forces that adaptation. And it’s those changes that take a nonexistent or atrophied skill and give it heft.
“I really wanted to go to a team that could develop me into a great player and that will take the time to help me because I feel like I’m really coachable and I listen,” Campbell said. “I just need the right information. And if I don’t know what I’m doing, it’s hard for me to correct and change things.”
Over those two months, the Red Sox didn’t overhaul Campbell’s swing as much as they found the best version of it. Thirty years ago, Coop DeRenne, a professor at the University of Hawaii, ran a study on overload and underload training that showed it significantly improved bat speed. The industry has mostly ignored its findings, but Driveline embraced them and brought them to the Red Sox. Campbell trained two days a week with bats that were 20% heavier and 20% lighter than standard 31-ounce bats. Though he whipped his bat through the zone with a preternatural ability to stay on plane — the angle of the bat meeting the angle at which the pitch arrived at home plate — delivering the barrel with greater force reinforced a tenet Red Sox coaches preach repeatedly: “The bats do the work for you.”
The bigger challenge was adulterating Campbell’s swing to hit the ball in the air. Williams, who wanted to be known as the greatest hitter who ever lived, long advocated for ball flight because he understood a hard-hit ground ball is typically a single while balls struck in the air produce the vast majority of extra-base hits. Pulling the ball in the air is particularly important. The longer a bat takes to make contact, the more speed it generates. Meeting a ball in front — which typically allows a hitter to pull — maximizes the capacity for damage.
Rather than overhaul Campbell’s swing, the Red Sox preferred to let his natural athleticism guide him toward a solution. Instead of moving his hand position or getting rid of his toe-tap, Campbell altered where he wanted to strike the ball, reminding himself with every rep to do something counterintuitive: Swing under it.
“For me, it’s just a feeling,” Campbell said. “You got to know where your barrel is at all times. It was in an odd spot because I was trying to get more elevation on the ball than normal. So I feel like I have to swing under the ball to hit it in the air. And I really was on plane because I’ve been so on top of it all these years.”
Campbell’s barrel aptitude improved by taking reps with a fungo bat or a slim 37-inch bat (3 to 4 inches longer than the standard bat), which forced him to meet the ball farther in front of the plate. The skills learned in doing so eventually meld with a hitter’s’ regular bats, and variations of drills — offsetting standard pitching machines to the side, mixed-pitch Trajekt sessions — allow them to be applied in new, challenging environments. In the cages in Ft. Myers, coaches pitted Campbell and his fellow prospects against one another to see who could hit the ball hardest or most consistently. Winners gloated — “Marcelo talks s— 25/8,” Anthony said — and those who didn’t win returned the next day intent on revenge.
When last winter’s offseason sessions ended, the Red Sox were hopeful they would translate into a breakout season for Campbell. Even they could not have predicted what transpired over the ensuing months. Campbell said he came into 2024 hoping to hit five home runs — one more than in his lone college season. He started the season at High-A Greenville and hit his fifth home run May 9. Less than a month later, with three more home runs on the ledger, he ascended to Double-A, where he spent two months and whacked eight more homers. He was promoted to Triple-A for the final month and added another four, finishing the season hitting .330/.439/.558 with 20 home runs, 24 stolen bases, 74 walks and 103 strikeouts in 517 plate appearances.
“I remember the first time I saw him hit, I was like, ‘The hell is this?’ ” Mayer said. “He’s in the cage with the weirdest swing I’ve ever seen, and he’s got his long bat, and I’m like, ‘What?’ Next thing I know, he’s hitting .380.”
When Red Sox shortstop Trevor Story first saw Campbell on a rehabilitation assignment in Triple-A, he was taken by his ability “to self-organize and learn how to solve problems.”
“He has a special talent for moving the bat,” Story said. “His bat speed is just violent. When you hear it, you’re like, oh, s—.”
“It’s controlled violence,” Campbell said. “You got to make sure you see the ball. And then whenever you make a decision to swing, you got to put your fastest, hardest, best swing on it and make sure you stay somewhat under control while that ball is going on so you can hit the ball as well as possible.
“Every swing really can’t be the same. The way pitches move and how good everybody is nowadays, if you take the same swing every time and only can hit certain pitches, that’s a mistake. You’ve got to be able to adjust to different things, different pitches, different locations.”
DURING THE FIRST week of this year’s spring training, before the full Boston squad reported, Red Sox Hall of Famer Dwight Evans stood outside of Cage 4 and admired what he was seeing. Evans spent two seasons as a hitting coach, in 1994 with Colorado and 2002 with the Red Sox, and he recognizes baseball’s evolution. The game changes, and even if all the technology isn’t his cup of tea, he isn’t going to argue with the results.
In Campbell, Mayer and Anthony, he doesn’t see prospects. Without an at-bat to their names in MLB, they remind Evans — who spent 20 seasons in the major leagues, 19 with Boston — of his peers.
“It’s almost like they’ve been around 10 years in the big leagues,” Evans said. “They just have it. They know what they’re trying to do.”
The Red Sox believe this is just the beginning for Campbell, Mayer and Anthony and that their approach to hitting will create a pipeline of prospects to join a core that includes the trio alongside All-Stars Rafael Devers, Jarren Duran, Alex Bregman and Story, and the young and talented Triston Casas and Ceddanne Rafaela. Buy-in at all levels is paramount, and chief baseball officer Craig Breslow, assistant general manager Paul Toboni and farm director Brian Abraham are leaning into the work done by Ochart, Soteropulos and Stasio. Breslow hired Kyle Boddy, who founded Driveline, as a special adviser. Five other former Driveline employees dot the player development, baseball science and major league staffs, and Stasio was promoted over the winter to director of major league development, a new role in which he will apply the development philosophies to the big league club and maintain the continuity for prospects who ascend to Fenway Park.
Campbell is in line to be the first — of many, the Red Sox hope — to crack the big league roster. He’s in competition for the second-base job this spring, a testament to the organization’s belief in him. If he wins it, Bregman will play third and Devers — who has received MVP votes five of the past six years and signed a franchise-record $313.5 million contract — will move to designated hitter, a role he said unequivocally he doesn’t want to play.
The Red Sox see Campbell as worth the potential drama. Perhaps it’s a function of five playoff-free seasons in six years since their 2018 World Series title, but it’s likely simpler: Campbell is too good to keep down. Mayer and Anthony won’t be far behind. The competition fostered in Cage 4 — and the work ethic it demands — isn’t going anywhere.
Even before Campbell’s arrival, Mayer and Anthony had grown close through late-night, postgame hitting sessions. Both have beautiful left-handed swings, more traditional than Campbell’s in which he waggles the bat, pointing it almost directly toward the sky at the swing’s launch point. Starting from a better place than Campbell hasn’t kept either from reaping the benefits of Boston’s program.
“I don’t know if I’m hitting the ball harder because it’s necessarily bat speed or because I’m working in the gym, but both together could only help,” Mayer said. “So over the years, I feel like I’m hitting it harder, I’m moving the bat quicker. I have a better understanding of my swing. So all those things tie in and play a big role and lead to success.”
Knowing which prospects will find major league success is impossible, though in an era defined by objective data, the misses aren’t nearly as frequent. There was no bat-speed data when Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas and Wil Myers were all top-10 prospects for Kansas City in 2010. Trajekt was a dream machine when Arizona had Justin Upton, Chris Young and Carlos Gonzalez in 2007. Exit velocity was the domain of rocket ships in 2004 when Rickie Weeks, Prince Fielder and J.J. Hardy were coming through the Milwaukee system.
It’s a whole new baseball world, and it is on full display in Cage 4, where Campbell, Mayer and Anthony have spent so much time working with their instructors that they joke that Soteropulos might as well sleep there.
“It’s pretty cool to think about how many spring trainings we’ve been in there,” Anthony said. “Looking back at it and being on the big league side, just appreciating guys like John and guys on the minor league side that take so much time out of their days to get us better.”
For all the struggles hitters around baseball have faced, the Red Sox believe in their system — and in this first generation that will serve as a litmus test to its efficacy.
“I’m committed to the game,” Campbell said. “I want to be the best player I can be every day. I want to bring whatever I can to Boston. Once I knew they drafted me, I was like, ‘That’s the team I’m going to debut with. That’s the team I’m going to play with. I want to play with the team for a long time.’ I just knew that I’m going to give all I have to this team that took a chance on me. I’m going to make sure it’s worth it for them and me.”
GLENDALE, Ariz. — Dodgers manager Dave Roberts says three-time MVP Shohei Ohtani will make his first spring training appearance of the year Friday night against his old team, the Angels.
Ohtani, 30, will be the designated hitter. Roberts has not given a timetable for Ohtani’s return to the pitcher’s mound other than to say he hopes it would be “sooner than later.” Roberts has ruled Ohtani out for the March 18-19 season-opening series in Tokyo against the Chicago Cubs.
Ohtani injured his left shoulder sliding into second base during the World Series, when the Dodgers beat the New York Yankees in five games. He did not pitch last season, his first with the Dodgers, while recovering from surgery to repair a ligament in his throwing elbow.
Playing exclusively as a batter, he hit 54 home runs with 59 stolen bases — the first person in the major league 50/50 club — and won his third unanimous MVP award.
As a pitcher, Ohtani is 38-19 with a 3.01 ERA, including a 10-5 record and 3.14 ERA in 2023 before he was injured that August.
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