
College football Week 8 preview: How will the unbeatens fare this weekend?
More Videos
Published
2 years agoon
By
adminWeek 8 is here and the number of undefeated teams keeps dwindling, so which ones will be left standing at the end? Well, nine of 11 unbeaten teams are in action this weekend, including Penn State at Ohio State. One of those squads will suffer its first loss of the season.
Elsewhere, defenses have been impressive from more than just the undefeated group, and our reporters break down everything to know heading into this weekend.
What’s on deck for CFB’s undefeated teams in Week 8 and beyond?
Georgia (bye) and Liberty (Tuesday win vs. Middle Tennessee) do not play this weekend, so as they regroup, we’ll focus on the rest of the Week 8 slate.
Washington 6-0 vs. Arizona State
ESPN’s Football Power Index gives the Huskies a 14.2% chance of not just winning out through the regular season, but through the Pac-12 title game. Which is one way to say it probably isn’t going to happen.
Of the 11 remaining unbeaten teams, six have better odds. Looking at the schedule, it’s easy to see why. The Huskies have three ranked teams left before finishing the regular season against Washington State in the Apple Cup. The good news for the Huskies, though, is that if they end up being measured against other one-loss teams, their strength of schedule at the end of the year will be a benefit.
With Arizona State and Stanford the next two weeks, there is a clear expectation the Huskies will be 8-0. That’s when it gets tricky. They go to USC, home against Utah and to Oregon State. That’s three very different opponents that will pose significantly different challenges. While the Huskies should be favored in all three, the margin for error will be tight. — Kyle Bonagura
Penn State 6-0 (at Ohio State)
After losing to Ohio State in 2018, Penn State coach James Franklin sounded off on how the program had risen from average to good to great but had yet to reach an elite level. He spoke emotionally about how PSU couldn’t be comfortable with where it stood and needed to do “all the little things” to reach the next level.
“We’ve been knocking at the door long enough,” Franklin said then.
Four more Ohio State losses later, Penn State’s time to break through has come. The Lions have some talent edges over the Buckeyes, especially on defense, and boast a first-year starting quarterback in Drew Allar, who might have a higher ceiling. Much has been made of Penn State’s conservative approach with Allar, who averages just 6.93 yards per attempt, 93rd nationally, and has only 11 completions of 20 yards or longer (tied for 114th nationally).
As good as the Nittany Lions are on defense — No. 1 nationally in fewest yards allowed, rushing defense, passing defense and sacks per game — they likely will need to cut it loose more, beginning Saturday at Ohio State. But Franklin is pleased with Allar’s patience as a young QB.
“Every quarterback wants to throw the corner route or the go route or the post,” Franklin said. “Who is throwing checkdowns in their backyard, right? … He’s doing a really good job of keeping the main thing the main thing, which is protecting the football, trying to create explosive plays when they’re there, but not forcing them.”
Penn State’s season will be shaped by how it performs Saturday and Nov. 11 against Michigan. The Lions are 4-14 against Ohio State and Michigan under Franklin, who is 80-22 against everyone else while at the school. Penn State hasn’t beaten both heavyweights since 2008. The Michigan matchup, even more so than Ohio State, has become especially difficult for Franklin’s teams.
But the opportunity is there, and Penn State has the pieces in place to take the step Franklin has wanted for years. — Adam Rittenberg
Ohio State 6-0 (vs. Penn State)
Ohio State doesn’t really look like a team poised to run the table, but its dominant play in the past six quarters suggests a shift is coming. The Buckeyes outclassed Maryland in the second half Oct. 7, and never let Purdue get traction in last week’s 41-7 road win.
Obviously, coach Ryan Day’s team will need to maintain and elevate its play this week against Penn State, which looks like a better version of the squad that held a fourth-quarter lead over Ohio State last year until JT Tuimoloau was prolific in the closing minutes. Ohio State’s offense needs quarterback Kyle McCord to keep progressing — he has five touchdowns, no interceptions and 596 passing yards in his past two games, but has had some hiccups against pressure — while also finding greater balance on offense and protecting better. Penn State leads the nation in sacks (4.5 per game) and is tied for seventh nationally in overall team pressures (99).
“This will be our biggest challenge to date,” Day said Tuesday. “They’re very twitchy, very quick, they get after the quarterback at a high level. Both ends are NFL players for sure. So our tackles, in particular, are going to have to do a great job.”
Ohio State’s defense could ultimately be the unit that propels the Buckeyes to an undefeated season. The unit doesn’t pop in any of the popular categories — sacks (105th), takeaways (tied for 92nd), tackles for loss (tied for 82nd) — but has limited big plays and ultimately kept points off the board. Coordinator Jim Knowles’ less-is-more approach could pay off this week against a solid but not spectacular Penn State offense, and ultimately against a marauding Michigan team on the road. Knowles on Tuesday said he doesn’t like the bend-but-don’t-break label, classifying his defense simply as: “One that prevents points.”
The Buckeyes’ schedule outside of Penn State and Michigan is manageable, especially since Wisconsin just lost starting quarterback Tanner Mordecai to injury. But finding a way to outlast arguably Penn State’s best team since 2016 will be a key first step.
“There’s a lot riding on every game,” Day said. “We know that and so it’s my job to bring it every week, every Saturday and push as hard as I can.” — Adam Rittenberg
Michigan 7-0 (at Michigan State)
Michigan has started the season undefeated through seven games for the third year in a row. The Wolverines have faced an easier schedule so far, but have dominated opponents week by week.
Michigan is the first team since 1936 to score 30 or more points while allowing 10 or fewer points in each of its first seven games. Easier opponents or not, that is impressive and Michigan has been a balanced team throughout.
The Wolverines have scored 30 or more points in 10 straight games, which is the longest streak in program history. As it stands, the team has a receiver in Roman Wilson, who is tied for most touchdown receptions among all FBS players (9), and a running back in Blake Corum, who is tied for the most rushing touchdowns among all FBS backs (12).
It’s not the Michigan of old, when opponents could load up the box and just try to stop the run, as the passing game has been prominently displayed this season.
But November is going to be the tough test for Michigan. The team will face Penn State on the road, Maryland and Ohio State in November. Happy Valley is never an easy place to play and the Nittany Lions are playing outstanding football. Ohio State has lost twice in a row to Michigan and will do anything it can to stop that streak.
Despite the way Michigan is playing, those games will be tough tests, but the Wolverines have described themselves as bullies and the team that wants to bring the adversity to its opponents. How good this team is and how far it can go will depend on the November results.
“There was a real calm, a real understanding that when we get punched in the mouth, we’re going to respond,” coach Jim Harbaugh said. “That’s what’s going to happen. Everybody has that kind of faith in the leadership of our team, the character of our team. There’s a devotion to the fundamentals of Michigan football and we just go to work at responding.
“That’s the best strategy you can do and that’s what we lean back on.” — Tom VanHaaren
The Sooners rank second in FPI, just behind Ohio State, but have the highest probability of winning out of any undefeated team at 41.1%. Their remaining schedule ranks 45th in strength as the rest of the league, with the exception of Texas, has had wildly unpredictable results.
But OU’s Dillon Gabriel has been unflappable, leading a Sooners offense that is averaging 45.2 points per game (fourth-best nationally), while Danny Stutsman headlines a defense allowing just 14 ppg, seventh best. Now that the annual pressure cooker against Texas is over, with Gabriel delivering a legendary comeback drive with no timeouts, going 75 yards in just over a minute for a 34-30 win, OU can think bigger.
“Our mindset is that we’ve already put all the pressure on ourselves,” Oklahoma defensive end Ethan Downs told reporters on Monday. “We have high expectations, and we have goals. The goals are still the same as they were before the hype and after. We appreciate all the recognition, but our goals exceed far beyond that. What happens in the building and what happens in every practice is what we’re focused on. It hasn’t changed.”
The biggest remaining challengers for the Sooners include a trip to Stillwater on Nov. 4 in front of an emotional Oklahoma State crowd for what will be the last Bedlam rivalry game before the Sooners depart for the SEC, facing a Cowboys program that has surged back to life following a 33-7 loss at home to South Alabama and another at Iowa State.
After UCF, the Sooners will travel to Kansas to face a Jayhawks squad that can score on anyone. They’ll finish the season with a home game against TCU, which also appeared to find its footing with a new quarterback last weekend. In between, the Sooners will play a gritty West Virginia team and endure a trip to Provo for BYU’s only conference battle with them. All are winnable, but the Big 12 never seems to follow the script. But as it stands now, FPI projects the Sooners have a 70.1% chance to make the College Football Playoff and a 39.9% chance to make the title game, both best in the country. — Dave Wilson
North Carolina 6-0 (vs. Virginia)
North Carolina hasn’t found itself ranked in the top 10 often, but when it happens, it doesn’t typically go well for the Tar Heels. Since Mack Brown left Chapel Hill the first time in 1998, UNC has played five games as a top-10 team. It’s lost four of them.
Well, UNC is 6-0 and ranked 10th. Time for an implosion?
“We’ve got to handle success,” Brown said. “That’s something we haven’t done very well around here. To be a great team, you’ve got to play to a standard, and that standard is to win every game.”
UNC was last in the top 10 in the 2021 preseason poll, and it quickly lost to Virginia Tech in the opener. He doesn’t foresee such a stumble this week, with Virginia on the docket.
For one, the Cavaliers are scuffling at 1-5 — though they won their last game, vs. William and Mary, and are coming off an open date. More importantly, Brown said, the focus for his team is different this time around.
In last week’s win over Miami, the Heels ran for 235 yards, Drake Maye threw four touchdowns and the defense forced four turnovers. And yet, Brown said the team was as critical of itself after Saturday’s victory as it has been after any win since he returned to Chapel Hill five years ago.
“We’re at a different place with this team and this staff,” he said.
The team certainly is in a different place on defense, with last year’s overwhelmed unit now playing with confidence.
It’s different in the run game, where Omarion Hampton has blossomed as one of the nation’s most productive runners.
And it’s far different in the passing game, with Tez Walker showing why UNC was so eager to get him on the field after he had three touchdown grabs last week.
But more than anything, North Carolina is different in its expectations.
Two years ago, when Brown announced to his team it was ranked eighth in the preseason polls, the players erupted in cheers. On Sunday, when he let them know they were 10th, no one budged.
“I think they appreciate being where they are,” he said, “and they know it’s fleeting. So you better win.” — David Hale
Florida State 6-0 (vs. Duke)
Of all the undefeated teams listed here, only Oklahoma has a better chance to finish unbeaten than Florida State, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index. But that doesn’t necessarily mean the Seminoles have a cakewalk on their remaining schedule. Whether Duke has Riley Leonard available or not — he remains day to day with a high ankle sprain — the Blue Devils defense will present FSU’s biggest challenge since Clemson. Duke ranks No. 4 in the nation in scoring defense, one of four schools in the country giving up less than 10 points per game.
“You look at the standard of good defenses. This is one that you would point to,” Florida State coach Mike Norvell said. “All 11 guys on their defense tackle, they can run, cover. They’re disruptive in the schemes that they present. Got really good pressure packages that challenge offenses. You can see the confidence in how they play. These are the games you love being a part of. It’s going to be some fun X’s and O’s to see who can try to create any type of advantage.”
Indeed, on the flip side, Florida State is one of nine offenses in the country averaging more than 40 points per game. It has finally found a nice balance between its run and passing game, and will have to match the intensity and physicality that Duke plays with — particularly on defense. If Duke can control the line of scrimmage and force the Seminoles into mistakes, the Blue Devils will give themselves a chance to win.
Beyond Duke, Florida State still has both its in-state rivals left on the schedule — Miami at home Nov. 11 and at Florida on Nov. 25 — and a tricky game at Pitt on Nov. 4. The Panthers are 2-4, but they just took down unbeaten Louisville. Doing it again should not be out of the question. — Andrea Adelson
Granted, things just got trickier with the loss of quarterback Zac Larrier to a knee injury. His timetable is uncertain at the moment; coach Troy Calhoun said only that Larrier would “likely be out for a while” and that he didn’t know how long. Still, Air Force has quite a bit going for it in the quest to get to 12-0 or 13-0.
For one thing, backup quarterback Jensen Jones has experience and has posted similar numbers in a smaller sample. Jones will still have a particularly explosive set of backs at his disposal, too, feeding players like John Lee Eldridge III (10.1 yards per carry) and Owen Burk (6.3). His defense should remain awesome as well: Air Force has been awfully stingy in recent years and boasts A-plus playmakers in linebackers Bo Richter, PJ Ramsey and Alec Mock (combined: 18.5 tackles for loss, 8.5 sacks) and safety Trey Taylor. Calhoun has led this team for nearly 20 years, and this is one of his most talented casts.
Plus, the remaining schedule is awfully navigable. Granted, the next four games are all away from home, and they include rivalry contests against both Navy and Army, but these next four opponents have a combined record of 10-15. The Falcons’ path to 10-0 is solid, and they might have a chance to get Larrier back before they finish the season against 5-1 UNLV, Boise State and whoever they might play in a theoretical MWC championship game.
But that’s down the road. This week the focus is on Navy. The Falcons have won three in a row in this series, but they were by diminishing margins — 40-7 in 2020, 23-3 in 2021, 13-10 in 2022 — and Navy has won two in a row after a 1-3 start. Taking down an increasingly confident rival with your backup quarterback never qualifies as easy. — Bill Connelly
James Madison 6-0 (at Marshall on Thursday)
The Dukes have only two games remaining against teams that are over .500, beginning Thursday night with Marshall (4-2) and in two weeks (Nov. 4) against Georgia State (5-1). Fresh off its 41-13 dispatching of Georgia Southern last week, James Madison’s offense is in high gear — tallying at least 31 points in five of its six games.
In its second season as an FBS program, Curt Cignetti has led a successful transition to the Sun Belt for a program that enjoyed four seasons of at least 12 wins and three berths in the FCS national championship game since 2016 (including winning the national title in 2016). Ineligible to play in the postseason as its two-year transition to Division I concludes, James Madison has a carrot of an undefeated season in reach. It hasn’t finished unbeaten since 1975 (9-0-1).
Whether the program gets there may depend on its offense (34.5 ppg) continuing to put the foot on the gas behind senior quarterback Jordan McCloud (1,432 passing yards with 14 touchdowns and three interceptions) and hope its defense tightens things a bit. — Blake Baumgartner
Which defenses have impressed so far this season?
North Carolina
The North Carolina defense has been impressive when you consider where this group was a year ago. Headed into the season, many wondered how much improvement we would see from a group that ranked either near or at the bottom in the ACC in nearly every statistical category in 2022. Defensive coordinator Gene Chizik promised the group would play much better in Year 2 in the system, and he has been right. North Carolina is allowing nearly 100 yards and 10 points per game fewer than last year; its run defense is allowing 50 fewer yards per game; it already has reached its interception total for all of last year (9); it has 16 sacks, one away from the total last year; and it already has more tackles for loss (35) than last year. Kaimon Rucker has emerged at the rush end position, the revamped secondary has played better thanks, in part, to key transfer addition Alijah Huzzie, and Cedric Gray has developed into a terrific all-around linebacker. — Adelson
The last drive against Oklahoma notwithstanding, the Texas defense has been the difference in its turnaround this year. The Longhorns have already faced Alabama, a solid Kansas offense (though Jalon Daniels did not play) and a stellar Oklahoma unit, and rank 15th nationally in points allowed (16.3) and are allowing 323.3 total yards, 26th-best. The Longhorns are allowing rushing first downs 14.3% of plays, first nationally, and are eighth overall in allowing a conversion on 28.4% of third downs. — Wilson
Penn State
Michigan’s defense has been dominant and the numbers that unit is putting up are notable, but Penn State’s defense has edged the Wolverines in many top categories. The Nittany Lions are first among all FBS programs in yards allowed per game, giving up 193.7 yards. The team is third overall in rush yards allowed (72.5) and first in pass yards allowed per game (121.2). The team is also second among all FBS programs in sacks with 27, first in opponent completion percentage, first in pass touchdowns allowed, giving up just one all season, and the list goes on with this defense. Penn State will have its work cut out for it in the latter half of the season, with Ohio State, Maryland and Michigan, but the defense has been nearly flawless. — VanHaaren
How good has the Utah defense been? Consider this: The Utes are 5-1 and are ranked No. 14 in the country despite having the nation’s No. 111-ranked scoring offense. That’s not possible without an elite defense. The Utes rank No. 5 nationally in scoring (12.2 ppg) and have forced opponents to go three-and-out 46.5% of the time, the third-best mark in the country. — Bonagura
For a change, it’s not Georgia or not Alabama that has grabbed the headlines defensively the first part of the season in the SEC, although both are outstanding. It’s Tim Banks’ Tennessee defense that has stolen the show and blossomed into one of the most improved units in the country after finishing 91st nationally a year ago in total defense.
The Vols lead the SEC with just 10 touchdowns allowed in six games and are second to Georgia in yards per play allowed (4.41) and second to Texas A&M in sacks per game (4). Sophomore defensive end James Pearce Jr. has emerged as one of the top pass-rushers in the country, and only in their 29-16 loss to Florida have the Vols given up more than two touchdowns in a game. In three of their six contests, they’ve allowed just one touchdown, and the two touchdowns UTSA scored came in the second half after Tennessee led 31-0 at the half.
The matchup Saturday against Alabama should be especially interesting. Tennessee is one of the best teams in the country at sacking the quarterback (24), while Alabama is one of the worst at giving up sacks (31). — Chris Low
Quotes of the week
“You can’t sit around and eat the poisonous cheese. You can’t listen to the talk. You can’t pat yourself on the back, because we’re human beings. How are we going to play? Are we going to walk around all week and be cool and talk about all these stats and about how many times we’ve been 6-0?” — North Carolina coach Mack Brown on getting complacent after an undefeated start.
“We’re in the ass-kicking business, and business is booming.” — Linebacker Mike Barrett said after Michigan’s win against Indiana.
“I was frustrated and kicked something I shouldn’t have kicked and thought I was OK, and then the adrenaline of the game wore off.” — Shane Beamer on how he broke his foot following South Carolina’s loss last week.
“Are they in love with this game or are they in like with it?” — Deion Sanders’ comments following Colorado’s loss to Stanford.
You may like
Sports
ACC preview: Road to title again figures to go through Clemson
Published
5 hours agoon
July 7, 2025By
admin
-
Bill ConnellyJul 7, 2025, 07:00 AM ET
Close- Bill Connelly is a writer for ESPN. He covers college football, soccer and tennis. He has been at ESPN since 2019.
To be the man, you have to beat the man. It’s the mantra of Charlotte-based wrestling great Ric Flair, and it pretty reliably describes the annual title race in the Charlotte-based ACC. For 14 straight years, the ACC crown has gone to either Dabo Swinney’s Clemson Tigers or to someone who managed to beat them in the regular season.
Over the past 10 of those 14 years, Clemson has won eight titles. Even as the Tigers’ status as a national championship contender diminished — they’ve finished from 13th to 20th in the AP poll for four consecutive years after six straight top-four finishes — they’ve split the past four conference titles. Last year they became the first bid thief of the expanded College Football Playoff era, knocking off SMU in Charlotte to nab the final playoff berth over Alabama. And with the highest returning production percentage in the country, the Tigers not only head into 2025 as obvious favorites to defend their crown, but they are also garnering top-five hype.
I’ve been pretty skeptical about the latter hype — we’ll talk plenty about that below — but there’s no question the Tigers enter 2025 as the ACC’s most likely champion. Who else might contend? Will SMU charge back after coming so close to a title in its conference debut? Can Miami finally get the offense and defense functional at the same time? Since beating Clemson in the regular season is evidently a prerequisite to ACC glory, can someone such as Louisville or Duke take advantage of opportunities? And what the heck is Florida State capable of after suffering the end-all, be-all of collapses in 2024?
The most geographically ridiculous conference in major college football has countless storylines heading into the fall. Let’s preview the ACC!
Every week through the summer, Bill Connelly will preview another FBS conference, ultimately including all 136 FBS teams. The previews include 2024 breakdowns, 2025 previews and team-by-team capsules. Here are the MAC, Conference USA, Mountain West, Sun Belt, AAC and Indie/Pac-12 previews.
2024 recap
Though Clemson indeed won the race, the ACC’s journey through 2024 was fascinating, with Cal (and its online fan base) generating early buzz and bringing “College GameDay” to town, Florida State suffering a historic collapse, Miami reaching as high as fourth in the polls during a 9-0 start, Georgia Tech scoring a couple of stirring upset wins (and nearly getting a third), Duke and Syracuse each riding close wins to big seasons (they were a combined 13-3 in one-score finishes) and SMU rolling to an 8-0 regular season in ACC play — after nearly losing to Nevada in the season opener and making an early quarterback change, no less.
Louisville lost three conference games by a touchdown or less, Miami’s defense no-showed down the stretch, and after looking like they were in the middle of a lost season (by Clemson standards), there the Tigers were to swoop in, land a spot in the title game and beat SMU with a field goal at the buzzer in one of the best games of the year.
Both Clemson and SMU reached — and lost in the first round of — the College Football Playoff, capping a madcap season.
Oh yeah, and then North Carolina hired Bill Belichick. Can’t forget that.
Continuity table
The continuity table looks at each team’s returning production levels (offense, defense and overall), the number of 2024 FBS starts from returning and incoming players and the approximate number of redshirt freshmen on the roster heading into 2025. (Why “approximate”? Because schools sometimes make it very hard to ascertain who redshirted and who didn’t.) Continuity is an increasingly difficult art in roster management, but some teams pull it off better than others.
Though the national average for returning production is around just 53% this season, the ACC is one of three conferences (along with the Big 12 and SEC) to average 59% or higher. Clemson, at 80%, leads the way nationally, and seven other teams are at 60% or better. The Tigers hit that number in a few different ways. Swinney added three transfers to the Clemson roster, a mammoth number by his standards, but Clemson still does less portal work than any non-service academy in the country. Others, such as Stanford, Pitt and Boston College, don’t do much either. BC actually joins a strange club: Of the teams in the six conferences I’ve previewed to date, only BC, Ball State and Missouri State have fewer than 10 incoming starts from transfers and fewer than 10 redshirt freshman. It’s a pretty odd combination.
Jeff Brohm’s Louisville, meanwhile, does more portal work than most, and among the top teams in the returning production column, Miami, Louisville, FSU and Duke all got there in part through the addition of transfer quarterbacks.
2025 projections
We have some pretty big stratification at the top, where ACC No. 1 Clemson and No. 3 SMU are separated by 10.2 points, larger than the difference between No. 6 Duke and No. 16 Wake. The Tigers are projected favorites of at least 12 points in seven of eight league games and could get their biggest tests from a pair of nonconference matchups against the SEC — LSU’s visit in Week 1 and the trip to South Carolina in the regular-season finale.
Miami’s rating might be a bit surprising. The Hurricanes obviously benefit from how ridiculously good last year’s offense was — they’re still projected to have the best offense in the country despite losing basically eight starters. That will be a high bar to clear, but the defense has a chance to improve beyond 44th, too. We’ll see.
Because of the volatility baked into the projections, Clemson has only about a 2-in-7 chance of winning the league, and Miami, SMU and Louisville could each make a run to the title game. NC State, meanwhile, has a pretty workable conference schedule if you’re looking for a random sleeper.
Five best games of 2025
Here are the four conference games that feature (A) the highest combined SP+ ratings for both teams and (B) a projected scoring margin under 10 points, plus a mammoth Week 1 nonconference game.
LSU at Clemson (Aug. 30). There are a couple of other huge ACC nonconference games — Notre Dame at Miami in Week 1 and Clemson-South Carolina at the end — but I love this game showing up in Week 1 because there aren’t many teams I have more questions about than LSU and Clemson. Let’s get a bunch of those questions answered right away.
Miami at Florida State (Oct. 4). At this point, Miami will have already hosted Notre Dame and Florida in nonconference play. But the Canes’ ACC opener in Tallahassee will tell us a ton about both teams.
Louisville at Miami (Oct. 17). One of the bigger Friday night games of the season. Louisville hosts Clemson in November, but the Cardinals’ ACC title hopes might require them to win either this one or at SMU in late November.
Miami at SMU (Nov. 1). Miami has three games on this list within a month of each other. Because Clemson’s projections are so favorable, Miami might be the most important team in the title race — if the Canes don’t make it to Charlotte for the league title game, they will have a huge role to play in who does.
Clemson at Louisville (Nov. 14). Clemson’s tightest projected conference game. The Tigers have to visit Louisville a year after the Cardinals smothered them 33-21 in Death Valley East.
Conference title (and, therefore, CFP) contenders
Head coach: Dabo Swinney (17th year, 180-47 overall)
2025 projection: eighth in SP+, 10.0 average wins (6.8 in the ACC)
Hey there, Tigers fans. More than any other fan base this offseason, you guys have accused me of hating your team because of how open I’ve been in my skepticism toward its top-five bona fides. We’ll get to that, but I should note that none of that skepticism applies to the ACC race.
Again, the national average for returning production at the moment is about 53%. Clemson’s is 80%. The Tigers bring back quarterback Cade Klubnik (3,639 yards, 36 TDs last season) and three of his top four receivers in junior Antonio Williams and sophomores Bryant Wesco Jr. and T.J. Moore (combined: 2,263 yards and 21 TDs last year). Plus, sophomore Tyler Brown, injured in 2024, returns after catching 52 passes in 2023. Throw in the rarest of Clemson rarities, an incoming transfer receiver — Tristan Smith (934 yards and six TDs at SE Missouri State) — and you’ve got a tantalizing skill corps even with the loss of leading rusher Phil Mafah. (Sophomore back Jay Haynes easily topped Mafah by averaging 6.9 yards per carry in a small sample, though he’s coming back from a late-season ACL tear.)
Anchoring all this talent is what should be Clemson’s best offensive line in ages, one that returns four senior starters, including all-conference right tackle Blake Miller. The Tigers jumped to 16th in offensive SP+ last season — a far cry from where the Deshaun Watson and Trevor Lawrence offenses ranked but a vast improvement over the 2021-23 units, which averaged a 50.3 ranking. If huge returning production results in improvement (and it frequently does), they could easily have their first top-10 offense in a half decade.
The defense, meanwhile, was ridiculously young in 2024. Eighteen defenders saw at least 200 snaps, 13 of them return and nine are still only sophomores or juniors. That includes absolute stars in end T.J. Parker (11 sacks, 17 run stops), tackle Peter Woods (7.5 tackles for loss at 315 pounds), linebacker Sammy Brown (11.5 TFLs, five sacks) and corner Avieon Terrell (five TFLs, 13 passes defended), plus the rare senior in linebacker Wade Woodaz (15 run stops). And Purdue DE transfer Will Heldt (11 TFLs on a dismal defense) could add some star power as well. After the defense got worse for three straight years under coordinator Wes Goodwin, Swinney sought out a steadier set of hands in former Penn State DC Tom Allen. Improvement is likely, and a first defensive SP+ top-10 ranking since 2021 isn’t out of the question.
It’s a no-brainer to place Clemson atop the ACC pile. That makes the Tigers one of the surest picks to make the CFP. Where I struggle is when it comes to envisioning them winning three to four playoff games.
For starters, with all of those playmakers, Clemson’s defense ranked only 51st in success rate allowed and 103rd in yards allowed per successful play and registered its worst SP+ ranking (29th) since 2012. The run defense was mediocre even with Woods’ efforts up front, and the pass defense was merely good, not great.
The Tigers didn’t stand out in terms of offensive explosiveness either. Mafah and Haynes produced some lovely big runs, but the Tigers ranked 80th in yards per successful dropback, and Klubnik averaged just 11.7 yards per completion, even with some random explosiveness from Wesco and Moore. They could obviously be capable of far more, but I fear the preseason top-five rankings are overreactions to just a couple of big catches from Moore in the CFP loss to Texas. Plus, Clemson benefited significantly from turnover luck, especially in the ACC title game, and without those bounces in Charlotte, there’s no way we’re talking about a top-five team here.
But that’s the hater talking, I guess. I’m excited about watching Clemson in 2025, primarily because we’ll get to find out exactly what a Swinney program is capable of in the mid-2020s. If the Tigers are ever going to be elite again, you figure it’s going to come with this wonderfully experienced team. If the offense, which has lacked pop for years, is ever going to produce lots of explosions again, it will be with Klubnik distributing to Wesco, Moore, Haynes & Co. If the defense is going to rebound, it’s going to be with this combination of experience and a new, proven DC. It’s going to be a lot of fun finding out what the Tigers can do. And there’s a chance they prove this hater wrong.
Head coach: Mario Cristobal (fourth year, 22-16 overall)
2025 projection: 12th in SP+, 9.2 average wins (6.3 in the ACC)
I just can’t get past it. Trailing by seven points and facing a fourth-and-goal from the Syracuse 10 with under four minutes remaining, Cristobal took the ball out of No. 1 pick Cam Ward’s hands and elected to kick a field goal, hoping that his defense, which had given up touchdowns in four of five possessions and had no-showed for most of the previous two months, could make one last stop. It was painfully obvious that it wouldn’t. And it didn’t. Ward didn’t touch the ball again, and Miami fell 42-38, its ACC title and CFP hopes going by the wayside.
This wasn’t nearly the most disastrous game-management decision that Cristobal has made since taking over at The U in 2022, but it once again crystallized the contradictions inherent in the Cristobal experience. He’s going to recruit like gangbusters, he’s going to field an increasingly talented team, and when it’s winning time, he’s going to make a grave miscalculation.
Still, after a dismal first season in charge — Miami fell to 5-7 and 71st in SP+ in 2022 — things have improved dramatically. The Canes jumped to 7-6 and 28th in 2023, and even with a defense that was actively working against the team for half the season, they improved further, to 10-3 and 10th in SP+, last season. At some point, with the right combination of talent and quarterback play, your own game management issues can cease to be part of the equation. (Remember when we thought Andy Reid was a horrible game manager?)
I’m not saying Miami will be that talented in 2025, but there’s at least a chance. Carson Beck comes from Georgia after throwing for 3,485 yards and 28 TDs last season. He alternated between looking like the best QB in college football and throwing baffling interceptions (12 in all), but he’ll have backs Mark Fletcher Jr. and Jordan Lyle (combined: 1,007 yards, 6.1 per carry) and tantalizing North Dakota State transfer CharMar Brown next to him and a deeply experienced line, led by tackle Francis Mauigoa, in front of him. Cristobal had to completely rebuild the receiving corps, which doesn’t return anyone who caught more than 10 passes. I’m not sure he got the job done there, but between wideouts CJ Daniels (Liberty/LSU) and Keelan Marion (BYU) and returning blue-chip youngsters such as Joshisa Trader and tight end Elija Lofton, there might be enough.
The offense covered for the defense as much as possible last season — the Canes actually went 3-2 while allowing 34 or more points — but Cristobal needed a lot of new blood on that side of the ball and got it. New coordinator Corey Hetherman led Minnesota to a No. 11 defensive SP+ ranking in 2024, and he takes over a unit that returns five starters and welcomes nine transfers. The defensive front looks strong thanks to the return of tackles Akheem Mesidor and Rueben Bain Jr. — they combined for 15 run stops and nine sacks despite Bain missing four games — and the addition of tackle David Blay (Louisiana Tech). If blue-chip sophomores Justin Scott and Armondo Blount develop properly, that’s a nasty defensive line. Transfer Mohamed Toure (Rutgers) could team with senior Wesley Bissainthe to form a decent linebacking corps. But breakdowns in the back were devastating last year, and Hetherman has to hope a remodeled secondary fixes that. Cristobal signed four new corners, led by Washington State playmaker Ethan O’Connor and including Jakobe Thomas (Tennessee) and potential nickel backs Zechariah Poyser (Jacksonville State) and Kamal Bonner (NC State). Returning corner OJ Frederique Jr. could improve, too.
I like what Miami will have in the trenches, and despite the occasional INTs, Beck is a very good QB. But Miami will need the teardowns in the receiving corps and secondary to stick. I’m pretty sure the latter will, but I’m not sure Beck will have enough strong pass catchers.
Head coach: Rhett Lashlee (fourth year, 29-13 overall)
2025 projection: 20th in SP+, 8.4 average wins (5.3 in the ACC)
Based purely on performance compared with recent history, there might not be a better college football coach than Rhett Lashlee. Before his tenure, the Mustangs’ previous two seasons with 11-plus wins came in 1982 and … 1935; he did it in 2023 and 2024. They hadn’t finished in the SP+ top 25 since 1983-84; they jumped from 56th to 24th in 2023, then to 12th in 2024. When he took over three years ago, SMU was an above-average AAC team. Now it’s defending a spot in the CFP.
Is a two-year sample enough to proclaim Lashlee the best coach in the sport? Probably not. OK, definitely not. But wow. Chad Morris (12-13 in 2016-17) and Sonny Dykes (30-17 in 2018-21) helped to dust this program off and get it back on its feet, but Lashlee has transformed it from head to toe.
The 2024 Mustangs dealt with early QB issues — incumbent Preston Stone was benched in favor of Kevin Jennings barely two weeks into the season — and committed far too many penalties and turnovers. They also made far more big plays than their opponents, went three-and-out far less, created more negative plays and dominated third downs on the way to an 11-1 regular season. They needed one more bounce against Clemson in the ACC title game, and Jennings briefly self-destructed in an impossibly loud environment at Penn State in the CFP, but it was a hell of a season. SP+ had projected SMU as a top-25 team and possible ACC contender, and it still sold the Mustangs short.
The continuity table above says relatively kind things for 2025. Jennings (3,245 passing yards, 436 pre-sack rushing yards, 28 total TDs) is one of about six returning starters on offense, the O-line has a pair of all-conference contenders in tackle PJ Williams and guard Logan Parr, and corner Deuce Harmon and safeties Isaiah Nwokobia and Robert Rahimi (a ball-hawking San Jose State transfer) anchor what should be a strong secondary. But although Lashlee is used to living the transfer portal life, he had to do some serious work in rebuilding both the skill corps (which lost its top two RBs and three of its top four WRs) and the defensive front six (which lost eight of the 12 guys with 200-plus snaps). Three Mustangs gained at least 500 yards from scrimmage last year, and four made at least nine TFLs. They’re all gone.
Lashlee added a couple of solid pass-catching backs in T.J. Harden (UCLA) and Chris Johnson Jr. (Miami), and slot receiver Yamir Knight (James Madison) is an excellent efficiency guy. Meanwhile, linebacker Zakye Barker (13.5 TFLs at East Carolina) is nearly a sure thing, and defensive tackle Terry Webb (six run stops and 1.5 sacks at 314 pounds) is active for his size. But disruption up front was vital to SMU’s defensive success, and Webb is the only genuinely proven disruptor among nine incoming transfer linemen. Some newbies and/or youngsters will have to raise their game for SMU to return to either Charlotte or the CFP.
The schedule certainly seems trickier this time around. After nonconference battles with both Baylor (home) and TCU (away), SMU faces all three of the other teams in this title contenders section — Miami and Louisville at home and Clemson away. After what Lashlee and the Mustangs have done these past two years, doubting them seems pretty foolish. But they’ve got their work cut out for them in 2025.
Head coach: Jeff Brohm (third year, 19-8 overall)
2025 projection: 24th in SP+, 8.3 average wins (4.8 in the ACC)
Brohm’s Louisville is a very hectic program. Change never stops. In 2023, he took over a team that had ranked 41st in SP+ with an 8-5 record, sent 25 transfers out, brought 25 in and improved the Cardinals to 10-4 and 34th. In 2024, it was 30 transfers out, 32 in and further improvement to 21st with a 9-4 record. The offense got better each year, while the defense and special teams got worse.
In theory, by your third year, you probably want to have your culture and your own recruits in place, therefore necessitating fewer incoming and outgoing transfers. But that’s not how Brohm sees things. He lost 28 transfers and brought in 30. The Cardinals have some dynamite returnees in running backs Isaac Brown and Duke Watson (combined: 1,770 yards, 7.6 per carry!), receiver Chris Bell (737 yards, 17.1 per catch), potential all-conference center Pete Nygra, super-disruptive linebackers Stanquan Clark and Antonio Watts (combined: 16.5 TFLs, 11 passes defended) and safety D’Angelo Hutchinson (five pass breakups, five run stops). But those are damn near the only proven returnees. Brohm and offensive coordinator (and brother) Brian Brohm will have their third starting quarterback in as many years — likely USC transfer Miller Moss — and welcome four wideouts, three tight ends and seven linemen via the portal. Brohms typically field good offenses, and they’re clearly used to handling change, but this carousel isn’t slowing down at all.
The defense has indeed trended in the wrong direction of late, so maybe it’s not too scary that 14 of the 19 defenders with 200-plus snaps are gone. The linebacking corps looks excellent, and Brohm added quite a few proven disruptors via the portal: end Clev Lubin (9.5 sacks at Coastal Carolina), tackle Jerry Lawson (14 TFLs at 295 pounds at Abilene Christian), safety JoJo Evans (seven passes defended and four run stops at Florida International), corners Justin Agu and Jabari Mack (combined: 20 passes defended at Louisiana and Jacksonville State, respectively) and corner/safety Rodney Johnson Jr. (five TFLs, three passes defended at Southern), among others.
Living the portal life means your scouting department constantly has to hit the jackpot. Ask Florida State’s Mike Norvell — a 2022 portal genius, a 2023 portal genius and a 2024 portal disaster — how that can go. But Moss’ QBR (74.4) basically matched that of last year’s starter, Tyler Shough (75.0); the trio of Brown, Watson and Bell is the most explosive in the conference; and there’s no reason to think the defense is any less talented than it was last season. Like SMU, Louisville plays all three fellow contenders (Clemson at home, Miami and SMU away), and the Cardinals travel to Pitt and Virginia Tech, too. That’s an obstacle, and at some point, a trend toward stability would be nice. But Brohm seems to know what he’s doing with all these moving pieces, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if Louisville improves for a third straight year.
A couple of breaks away from a run
Head coach: Mike Norvell (sixth year, 33-27 overall)
2025 projection: 36th in SP+, 6.8 average wins (4.5 in the ACC)
For all the obvious reasons, I feared a bit of a hangover for FSU last year. The heartbreak of 2023’s unconscionable CFP snub combined with the loss of quarterback Jordan Travis, most of a dynamite skill corps and seven defensive draft picks made the Seminoles regression candidates, even if Norvell said all the right things in the offseason and brought in another solid-on-paper transfer haul.
Of course, if you’d asked me what “hangover” meant, I’d have probably guessed a record in the neighborhood of 7-5. FSU went 2-10! The transfer class produced almost no standouts, and the quarterback situation was even worse than at the end of 2023 after Travis’ injury — DJ Uiagalelei, Brock Glenn and Luke Kromenhoek were dreadful. The Noles fell from ninth to 58th in defensive SP+ and from 23rd to 114th on offense.
This was a collapse on the scale of Bobby Petrino’s last season at Louisville, Texas’ first season after 2009 BCS Championship disappointment and Notre Dame’s 2007 swoon under Charlie Weis. And it’s noteworthy that none of the coaches in charge during those collapses could right the ship. But Norvell will try.
The offense, now coordinated by veteran Gus Malzahn, could start almost nothing but transfers, from quarterback Thomas Castellanos (Boston College) to running back Gavin Sawchuk (Oklahoma) to receivers Squirrel White (Tennessee), Duce Robinson (USC) and Gavin Blackwell (North Carolina) to any of six new offensive linemen. Tackle Micah Pettus (Ole Miss), guard Adrian Medley (UCF) and center Luke Petitbon (Wake Forest) are immediately the team’s most proven linemen. Castellanos was honestly an underwhelming addition; he started 2024 well at BC, but injuries and defensive adjustments rendered him mostly ineffective, and he was eventually benched. That said, he’s a speedster who started his career with Malzahn at UCF, and White and Robinson could be excellent.
On defense, new coordinator Tony White inherits a unit with few incumbents. Tackles Darrell Jackson Jr. and Daniel Lyons, linebackers Blake Nichelson and Omar Graham Jr. and corner Quindarrius Jones are solid, but transfers Deamontae Diggs (Coastal Carolina), Jayson Jenkins (Tennessee), James Williams (Nebraska) and Elijah Herring (Memphis) will need to immediately spruce up the pass rush, and tackle depth appears tenuous. There are enough proven entities to assume the defense will bounce back. In fact, the collapse was so significant last season that we should assume some progression toward the mean everywhere. But how much of a rebound can you pull off after such a collapse? And how many games does Norvell need to win to assure he’s still in Tallahassee in 2026?
Head coach: Manny Diaz (second year, 9-4 overall)
2025 projection: 41st in SP+, 6.8 average wins (4.4 in the ACC)
Mike Elko resurrected the Duke program, winning 17 games in 2022-23. But when he left for Texas A&M, Manny Diaz inherited an offense in need of a new quarterback and an overhaul on the line. The defense had been excellent under Elko, but 11 of the 16 guys with at least 250 snaps in 2023 were gone. A reset season seemed realistic.
Looking at the Blue Devils’ output, you could hardly tell there was any change at all.
Duke in 2022 (Elko): 9-4, 42nd in SP+ (55th offense, 29th defense)
Duke in 2023 (Elko): 8-5, 30th in SP+ (63rd offense, 25th defense)
Duke in 2024 (Diaz): 9-4, 44th in SP+ (71st offense, 31st defense)
The run game was a disaster, and Duke’s 6-1 record in one-score finishes camouflaged what probably should have been more like a seven-win season. But Diaz & Co. held the fort.
This year, the offensive line depth appears far stronger, and of the 17 defenders with at least 200 snaps, nine return, including four of six linemen and four of six DBs. Diaz added one of the Group of 5’s best safeties in Caleb Weaver (Sam Houston) and potentially exciting receivers in Andrel Anthony (Oklahoma) and Cooper Barkate (Harvard), but his portal coup came at quarterback, where Darian Mensah comes over from Tulane. Mensah finished his redshirt freshman season 21st in QBR, just a few points behind veterans such as Klubnik (13th) and Georgia Tech’s Haynes King (14th). Mensah’s numbers were strong across the board, from efficiency (66% completion rate) to explosiveness (14.4 yards per completion) to escapability (15.2% of pressures turned into sacks — a good number for a mobile guy). The skill corps is a bit of a question mark: Five of last year’s top seven pass catchers are gone, and Anthony, Barkate and running back Anderson Castle (Appalachian State) might all have to make an immediate impact. But Mensah is awesome, and the line looks sturdy. That’s a good starting point for improvement.
It’s hard to worry much about a Diaz defense, especially one with experience at the front and back. Ends Wesley Williams and Vincent Anthony Jr. (combined: 20.5 TFLs, 11 sacks) and tackle Aaron Hall (7 TFLs) are good, and corner Chandler Rivers (6.5 TFLs, 3 INTs, 8 breakups) is great. Four of last year’s top five linebackers are gone, and Diaz didn’t pursue any portal replacements, which theoretically means he’s happy with what he has there. Regardless, linebackers are generally easier to replace than linemen or DBs, so Duke has experience where it counts the most. I’m not sure Mensah will have enough help to make Duke an ACC dark horse, but the defense should give the Blue Devils a pretty high floor.
Head coach: Dave Doeren (13th year, 87-65 overall)
2025 projection: 42nd in SP+, 6.6 average wins (4.0 in the ACC)
“They’ll need some new disruptors. (Gibson usually finds them.)” That’s what I wrote about the NC State defense in last year’s ACC preview. Defensive coordinator Tony Gibson had produced three straight top-30 defenses, per SP+, but he had to replace six excellent starters and needed transfers to fill major gaps in the secondary. Of eight defensive transfers, only two clicked, and Gibson’s track record didn’t prevent State from collapsing to 69th in defensive SP+. Doeren’s Wolfpack were ranked in the 2024 preseason poll, but even with slight overachievement on offense — they were projected 56th in offensive SP+ and ended up 48th — they posted their first losing record in five years.
It’s time for another round of change in 2025. Gibson took the Marshall head coaching job, and of the 16 defenders with 200-plus snaps last season, only six return. Linebacker Sean Brown (13 run stops) and tackles Brandon Cleveland and Travali Price (combined: 15 run stops) are good starting points for new coordinator D.J. Eliot, but after failing to land enough impact transfers last year, Doeren had to seek out even more of them. Cian Slone (Utah State) and Sabastian Harsh (Wyoming) were among the Mountain West’s best defensive ends last year, and Brian Nelson II (North Texas) and Jamel Johnson (Temple) were among the AAC’s most active corners. But this is a lot of change in a short amount of time, and the last time Eliot coordinated a top-50 defense was 2015.
There’s reason for optimism on offense, at least. Quarterback CJ Bailey was decent as a true freshman: He ranked 65th in QBR, right between two mega-blue-chippers — Nebraska’s Dylan Raiola was 59th, Florida’s DJ Lagway 70th — and his best moments were great. He was 18-for-20 for 234 yards and three scores in a blowout of Stanford, he rushed for 83 yards and three TDs in a near-upset of Georgia Tech, and he threw for 242 yards and ran for 54 in a rivalry win at UNC. His performance was encouraging enough that when Doeren fired coordinator Robert Anae, he promoted QBs coach Kurt Roper.
Bailey isn’t Roper’s only exciting sophomore. Running back Hollywood Smothers (571 yards, 6.4 per carry) and Noah Rogers (478 yards, 13.7 per catch) were both portal hits, and incoming tackle Teague Andersen (Utah State) was honorable mention all-MWC as a freshman. If development and a new playcaller result in fewer negative plays — the Pack were 119th in turnovers, 116th in stuff rate and 74th in sack rate — this could be State’s best offense since 2021. That could be enough to drive a solid season if the defense doesn’t collapse further.
Head coach: Brent Key (fourth year, 18-16 overall)
2025 projection: 44th in SP+, 6.6 average wins (4.0 in the ACC)
If you were watching Georgia Tech in 2024, the Yellow Jackets were probably doing something special. They played three top-10 teams and looked like a top-10 team against all three — they upset No. 10 Florida State in Ireland to start the season (back when we thought that was an upset), then knocked No. 4 Miami from the unbeaten ranks with a 28-23 win in November and all but beat No. 6 Georgia during Rivalry Week, eventually falling 44-42 after 114 overtimes. (OK, it was eight OTs.) They otherwise went just 5-5, losing at Syracuse and Louisville, briefly falling apart when quarterback Haynes King injured his shoulder and losing a fun Birmingham Bowl against Vanderbilt.
Overall, they really weren’t different than they were in Brent Key’s first season at the helm.
Georgia Tech in 2023: 7-6, 65th in SP+ (50th offense, 86th defense, 68th special teams)
Georgia Tech in 2024: 7-6, 66th in SP+ (42nd offense, 79th defense, 104th special teams)
Still, making memories can pay off. Key capitalized on those big moments by signing a top-20 recruiting class and holding on to key players like King, running back Jamal Haynes, all-conference guard Keylan Rutledge and defensive tackle Jordan van den Berg. He also added all-Ivy League running back Malachi Hosley (Penn), maybe Florida International’s two best players — receivers Eric Rivers and Dean Patterson, who combined for 1,857 yards and 19 TDs — and a number of exciting defenders, such as end Ronald Triplette (UTSA), tackles Matthew Alexander (UCF) and Akelo Stone (Ole Miss), cornerbacks Kelvin Hill (UAB) and Daiquan White (Eastern Michigan) and safeties Jyron Gilmore (Georgia State) and Cayman Spaulding (Tennessee Tech).
The defensive transfers were necessary, since only seven of the 19 defenders with 200-plus snaps return for new coordinator Blake Gideon. Tech hasn’t had a top-50 defense, per SP+, since 2017, and since the Yellow Jackets allowed at least 31 points in five of six losses, it’s clear the defense held them back in 2024 as well.
Injuries did too. Nineteen defenders started at least one game, and King not only missed two games, but he was limited in others. His ridiculously physical style will always make him an injury risk, but when he and Haynes are in the backfield, Tech will have a chance to beat any team it plays. There won’t be as many marquee win opportunities — the Jackets play only two teams projected in the top 40 (Clemson and Georgia) — but if that results in more wins, period, I doubt Key will complain too much.
Head coach: Bill Belichick (first year)
2025 projection: 54th in SP+, 6.6 average wins (4.0 in the ACC)
We’ve had months to get used to the idea of Bill Belichick running a college football program. It’s still going to feel ridiculously odd to see the 73-year-old, six-time Super Bowl-winning head coach leading North Carolina onto the field against TCU on the first Monday night of the season. I had this vision of Belichick deciding to finish his career leading some Division III team like his alma mater, Wesleyan. I can’t say I ever had a vision of him coaching in the ACC.
I still have no idea how it’s going to go. As I wrote in the spring, “Depending on how kind you are, Belichick has surrounded himself with either known entities or yes-men: two Belichicks (defensive coordinator Steve, DBs coach Brian), two Lombardis (general manager Michael, quarterbacks coach Matt) and other key former NFL assistants (offensive coordinator Freddie Kitchens, special teams coordinator Mike Priefer). He has raved about enjoying popping pads and yelling at tight ends, and he’s regarded as a good enough teacher that, for all we know, this unheralded roster might develop well and thrive. Or not. I have no idea how to set expectations for this.”
I like the roster more now than I did when I wrote that, thanks to the spring addition of South Alabama quarterback Gio Lopez (2,559 passing yards, 547 pre-sack rushing yards, 25 total TDs), and Belichick & Co. added lots of heft to the offensive line, signing eight transfers — including 2024 FBS all-conference performers in tackles Will O’Steen (Jacksonville State) and Daniel King (Troy) — who average 6-foot-6, 322 pounds. But the skill corps is terribly unproven: Leading returning running back Davion Gause had 326 rushing yards, and leading returning receiver Kobe Paysour had 365 receiving yards.
The defense, meanwhile, is almost completely starting over. Sixteen defenders saw at least 200 snaps last year, and only three return, all defensive backs. Linebackers Andrew Simpson (Boise State), Mikai Gbayor (Nebraska) and Khmori House (Washington) could all be keepers, though ends Pryce Yates (6.5 TFLs at UConn) and Melkart Abou-Jaoude (9.5 TFLs at Delaware) are almost by default the most proven linemen. Under Mack Brown, the defense usually dragged the offense down — the Heels allowed at least 34 points in five of seven losses last season — and while the word “Belichick” is synonymous with good defense, it might take UNC a little while to grow sound on that side of the ball.
Head coach: Brent Pry (fourth year, 16-21 overall)
2025 projection: 46th in SP+, 6.6 average wins (3.9 in the ACC)
In 2023, Virginia Tech fell as low as 80th in SP+ before the offense caught fire and drove a 5-2 finish. In 2024, the Hokies started slowly again but nearly beat Miami and won three straight ACC games by a combined 60 points before injuries to quarterback Kyron Drones and running back Bhayshul Tuten slowed the offense down. Brent Pry’s team spent about half of the past two seasons flashing top-20 form but went a combined 13-13. And after massive turnover, Pry’s fourth Tech roster will look almost completely different than his third.
Drones is back. He has thrown for 3,646 yards and rushed for 1,377 in 23 games as a Hokie, and he’s a great starting point, but tight end Benji Gosnell is the only other offensive starter returning. On defense, linebackers Caleb Woodson and Jaden Keller are the only returnees who started more than six games. I really like a lot of the transfers Tech brought in, but they had to bring in so damn many.
On offense, running backs Terion Stewart (Bowling Green), Braydon Bennett (Coastal Carolina) and Marcellous Hawkins (Central Missouri) combined for 2,762 yards and 35 TDs in 2024, and Stewart is one of the best yards-after-contact backs in the country. Receiver Donavon Greene (Wake Forest) is dynamite when healthy (which isn’t often), former top-125 recruit Cameron Seldon (Tennessee) could be a nice yardage stealer in the slot, and guard Tomas Rimac (West Virginia) is one of four transfers new OL coach Matt Moore brought with him from WVU.
On defense, end Ben Bell (Texas State) was one of the nation’s best pass rushers in 2023 before missing most of 2024, and five other new D-linemen made at least five TFLs last year. In the back, safeties Christian Ellis (New Mexico), Isaiah Cash (Sam Houston) and Tyson Flowers (Rice) combined for 5 interceptions, 15 breakups and 14 run stops, while corners Isaiah Brown-Murray (East Carolina), Caleb Brown (Hawai’i) and Joseph Reddish (Wingate) combined for five INTs and 24 breakups.
On top of all this, Pry had to hire a new pair of coordinators, choosing a known quantity on offense (former Tulsa head coach Philip Montgomery) and an intriguing younger coach on defense (former Arizona Cardinals LBs coach Sam Siefkes). With how close Pry has come to success, it’s not optimal to deal with this much change at once, but this roster might have more upside than any Pry has led in Blacksburg.
Head coach: Pat Narduzzi (11th year, 72-56 overall)
2025 projection: 47th in SP+, 6.1 average wins (3.6 in the ACC)
One of the things that makes a college football season so enjoyable is the early upstart run, when a team enjoys some thrilling early finishes, gets off to a fast start and forces you to think of it as a potential contender. It adds such a layer of richness and world-building to the sport.
Pitt’s 2024 season is a perfect example. Coming off of a dire 3-9 collapse in 2023, Pat Narduzzi hired 30-year-old offensive coordinator Kade Bell (Western Carolina), paired him with former WCU back Desmond Reid and former Alabama backup quarterback Eli Holstein, and watched the offense drive a stunning 7-0 start. The Panthers scored late wins over Cincinnati and West Virginia, outlasted another September headline-maker (Cal) and blew out yet another upstart, Syracuse, thanks to three first-half pick-sixes.
And then they vanished from sight. Holstein struggled, then got hurt. An aggressive but glitchy defense sprang more leaks. And as delightful as they looked during the unbeaten start, they looked equally lost during an 0-6 finish. They more than doubled their win total in the most disappointing possible way.
Which was the more accurate impression, the start or the finish? Holstein is back, and Bell also has former WCU quarterback Cole Gonzales in tow, just in case. Reid is back after combining 966 rushing yards with 579 receiving yards, and the offense also returns two of its top three wideouts and three starting offensive linemen. The defense returns four of the six players with at least eight TFLs, including linebackers Kyle Louis (17 TFLs) and Rasheem Biles (11.5), plus three physical DBs in safety Javon McIntyre and corners Rashad Battle and Tamon Lynum. Incoming transfer Kavir Bains-Marquez (UC Davis) was one of the Big Sky’s most disruptive defenders last year.
A Pitt game last year was almost guaranteed to feature a lot of negative plays, a lot of explosive plays and a lot of penalties. It was highly volatile ball, even by Narduzzi’s standards, and it paid off for the Panthers until it very much did not. Reid aside, most of last year’s most exciting players were freshmen and sophomores, and one can see how experience might sand down rough edges and make Pitt an ACC dark horse. But that late-season collapse was pretty ugly. It’s up to the Panthers to prove whether the first or second half of the season showed us the way forward.
Head coach: Justin Wilcox (ninth year, 42-50 overall)
2025 projection: 65th in SP+, 5.9 average wins (3.4 in the ACC)
Somehow, Cal may have had an even more memorable mediocre season than Pitt. Because of a 3-0 start and the vaunted Calgorithm, the Golden Bears hosted “College GameDay” for the first time when Miami came to town. They led by as many as 25 points but fell, 39-38. It was basically the story of their season: They finished 55th in SP+ — their best ranking of the entire Justin Wilcox era — but went 6-7 because of a 2-5 record in one-score finishes. To compound the frustration, they proceeded to lose 33 players to the portal. (Wilcox also changed both coordinators.)
Wilcox honestly did a pretty good job of finding upside to replace upside in the portal. At quarterback, he found junior Devin Brown (Ohio State) and blue-chip freshman Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, who had originally signed with Oregon. At running back, he grabbed Brandon High (UTSA), Kendrick Raphael (NC State) and former blue-chipper L.J. Johnson Jr. (SMU). Five new WRs and two TEs came in, including a high-level slot receiver in UNLV’s Jacob De Jesus and two of the most explosive receivers in FCS, Idaho’s Mark Hamper and South Dakota’s Quaron Adams (combined: 1,504 yards, 22.4 per catch). And he has five new offensive linemen to pair with two 2024 starters and 2023 starter Sioape Vatikani, who missed a lot of last season.
On defense, quite a bit of last year’s front six returns, including four of five primary linemen, but Wilcox still added four more linebackers and three linemen, including Liberty’s TJ Bush Jr. (nine TFLs) and former blue-chipper Tyson Ford (Notre Dame). The secondary, however, lost seven of last year’s top eight. In come seven DB transfers, including corners Hezekiah Masses (FIU) and Brent Austin (USF).
The defense graded out better last season and returns more experience, but while I’m not sure what to expect from new offensive coordinator Bryan Harsin, I really like the upside of the transfers there. The schedule is kind, featuring only two opponents projected better than 40th, and if either of the two athletic QBs plays at a solid level and the god of close games smiles on the Golden Bears — two mighty ifs that may not come to fruition — Cal could top last year’s win total.
Just looking for a path to 6-6
Head coach: Bill O’Brien (second year, 7-6 overall)
2025 projection: 62nd in SP+, 5.2 average wins (2.9 in the ACC)
Bill O’Brien’s first season as BC head coach was a full three-act play. At first, the Eagles were yet another intriguing upstart, holding Florida State to 13 points (again, back when we thought that was impressive) and damn near knocking off an eventual 10-win Missouri team. The defense was physical and frustrating, and quarterback Thomas Castellanos was able to run around and avoid defenders for seemingly minutes on end, even if he didn’t really go anywhere. Even when Castellanos began picking up injuries and losing effectiveness, the defense was good enough to assure a 4-1 start.
A three-game losing streak followed, however, and with O’Brien losing faith in Castellanos, he called Grayson James off the bench against Syracuse. James threw a late TD pass to secure an upset win, and O’Brien elected to start James from there; Castellanos quit the team, and BC won two more games to finish 7-6.
James suffered fewer negative plays than Castellanos and was able to both get the ball quickly to slot man Lewis Bond and connect on some deep shots to then-freshman Reed Harris. In a reasonably small sample, he ended up with one of the better Total QBR ratings in the conference, right between second-round NFL draft pick Tyler Shough and Kevin Jennings.
The James-Bond-Harris combo was intriguing, as were young RBs Turbo Richard and Datrell Jones in small samples. A good line lost a couple of all-conference starters; if there’s not too much of a drop-off there, there should be enough to maintain last season’s late momentum, especially if the Eagles get something out of transfers such as receiver VJ Wilkins (Campbell) and tight end Ty Lockwood (Alabama). Bama transfer Dylan Lonergan joined the QB race as well.
With a secondary loaded with freshmen and sophomores, coordinator Tim Lewis had to play things pretty soft in pass defense. But the run defense was sound, and BC both created long third downs for opponents and made a solid number of stops. The secondary is far more seasoned now, and linebacker Daveon Crouch is excellent. But with last year’s top four linemen gone, O’Brien loaded up with seven transfers up front, five from smaller schools. None had amazing stat lines last year, but if a couple can provide depth for veterans like end Quintayvious Hutchins, a top-50 defensive SP+ ranking is possible.
Head coach: Fran Brown (second year, 10-3 overall)
2025 projection: 56th in SP+, 4.8 average wins (2.9 in the ACC)
Those hatin’ numbers are at it again. Syracuse won 10 games last season and is now in the “just hoping for 6-6” section. What?
I’ll try to explain: In 2024, the Orange played only three SP+ top-40 teams and beat them all, but they went 7-2 in one-score finishes (hard to duplicate), and two of their three losses — by 28 to Pitt and at home to Stanford — were absolutely dreadful. Kyle McCord piloted an efficient, pass-happy offense, but opponents made more big plays, and they were among the most fortunate teams in the league. Despite the 10 wins, they finished 46th in SP+.
Of course, 46th was Syracuse’s best ranking in seven years! And Fran Brown’s first dalliances in the portal produced the Orange’s leading passer, leading receiver, two offensive line starters and four of their best defenders. That’s a good sign.
Things will get tougher in 2025. The schedule features five projected top-20 teams, and the offense returns only two starters. McCord will likely be replaced by either Steve Angeli (Notre Dame) or Rickie Collins (LSU), and with last year’s leading rusher and three leading targets gone, incoming receiver transfer Johntay Cook II (Texas) and a lot of former backups will have to step up. Up front, two starters return, but they’re two of only three guys with more than 40 snaps back, and Brown brought in five line transfers.
Injuries thrust a lot of guys into the starting defense at one point or another, and of the 23 players who started at least once (!), 15 return. There isn’t a ton of proven playmaking here, but safety Duce Chestnut and nickel Devin Grant are fantastic, and sophomore OLB David Omopariola‘s per-snap production suggests he has breakout potential. Brown didn’t load up on transfers, but he did add strong playmakers in tackle Chris Thomas (Marshall) and edge rusher David Reese (Cal) and a young former blue-chip safety in Chris Peal (Georgia).
Between the massive schedule-strength upgrade, last year’s inflated win total and the need for another batch of portal playmakers on offense, the odds certainly favor a setback season for the Orange. But Brown has barely made a misstep so far, whether the hatin’ numbers acknowledge it or not.
Head coach: Tony Elliott (fourth year, 11-23 overall)
2025 projection: 79th in SP+, 5.1 average wins (2.8 in the ACC)
On one hand, Virginia improved to 5-7 last year after back-to-back three-win seasons under Tony Elliott. The defense was solid against the run and on third downs, and the offense showed hints of an identity, with a fast tempo and a decent run game.
On the other hand, UVA played six top-50 teams and went 0-6 with an average loss of 36-17. SP+ saw barely any improvement whatsoever — after averaging a 95.0 SP+ ranking in Elliott’s first two seasons, they were 91st in 2024. They were horrific at both passing (113th in yards per dropback) and stopping opponents from doing so (118th).
After going .500 or better in each of Bronco Mendenhall’s last four seasons (average SP+ ranking: 45.8), UVA has just been terrible under Elliott. And this being the mid-2020s, Elliott will attempt to save his job via the portal. He welcomes 31 transfers to Charlottesville, and a vast majority of them are upperclassmen. Quarterback Chandler Morris (North Texas) can wing the ball around, and I really like the running back duo of Harrison Waylee (Wyoming) and J’Mari Taylor (NC Central). I’m not sure whom Morris will be throwing to — Purdue transfer Jahmal Edrine and returnee Trell Harris are probably the biggest big-play threats — but thanks to seven transfers, almost the entire O-line two deep could be made up of seniors.
I like the D-line playmakers Elliott brought in: ends Fisher Camac (UNLV), Cazeem Moore (Elon) and Daniel Rickert (Tennessee Tech) combined for 38.5 TFLs and 20.5 sacks last season, and tackles Jacob Holmes (Fresno State) and Hunter Osborne (Bama) are active for their size. The linebacking corps is probably the best unit on the team thanks to returnees Kam Robinson, Trey McDonald and James Jackson, but with most of the starting secondary gone, UVA will welcome eight transfer DBs.
Will this work? I’d be surprised. And even if it does, Elliott will have to sign about another 30-40 transfers next year just to account for the loss of so many seniors. But the schedule is light, featuring only two projected top-40 teams (and none in the top 20), and UVA is probably better at QB and on both lines than last year. Bowl eligibility is a possibility, at least.
Head coach: Jake Dickert (first year)
2025 projection: 81st in SP+, 5.2 average wins (2.3 in the ACC)
Dave Clawson ended up a relic of a past era. He won 157 combined games at Fordham, Richmond, Bowling Green and Wake Forest due to pragmatic program building and player development. He took his time — his win percentage in his first year in those jobs was just .277, followed by .354 in year two, .532 in year three and .698 in year four.
You don’t take your time anymore. It must be said that the best coaches adapt, and plenty have done so as the demands of NIL and the portal have so drastically changed how roster building works. But whether it was Clawson’s failure to adapt or Wake Forest’s failure to generate proper NIL funds — I’m not taking guesses either way — things fell apart pretty quickly for the Demon Deacons. In Clawson’s last two seasons, they went 4-8 with sub-90 SP+ rankings. The good players left too quickly, and there just wasn’t enough talent to work with.
If there’s anyone who knows about winning when your best players are constantly looking out the door, it’s Jake Dickert. He went 20-18 in three years at Washington State despite constant turnover. And his first Wake team will be portal-built. He inherits a solid tackle-breaker in running back Demond Claiborne, a sure-tackling linebacker in Dylan Hazen and little else. He brought a few Wazzu transfers with him, including three starting offensive linemen and a solid receiver in Carlos Hernandez. Those linemen will be protecting one of two very exciting (read: scramble-heavy and sack-prone) quarterbacks in sophomore Deshawn Purdie (Charlotte) or senior Robby Ashford (South Carolina). They’ll be running around a lot and potentially throwing to Hernandez and two 1,000-yard smaller-school receivers in Reginald Vick Jr. (Virginia Union) and Karate Brenson (Tennessee State).
Yes, his name is Karate Brenson.
Former Kansas State and Michigan State coordinator Scottie Hazelton takes over a defense that — surprise! — will consist mostly of transfers. Ends Gabe Kirschke (Colorado State) and Langston Hardy (UConn) were nice gets, and safeties Ashaad Williams (North Alabama) and Sascha Garcia (William & Mary) were both smaller-school ballhawks. Led by Hazen, this could become a solid-tackling, make-them-beat-you defense pretty quickly. But it’s still fair to question the overall talent level on both sides of the ball.
Head coach: Frank Reich (first year)
2025 projection: 88th in SP+, 3.4 average wins (2.2 in the ACC)
As far as interim coaches go, you could do worse than Frank Reich. The former Indianapolis Colts and Carolina Panthers head coach — and engineer of two of the greatest comebacks of all time — has the résumé, even if he went just 4-15-1 in his last two years in those jobs. Andrew Luck, the Stanford GM overseeing the program, called in a favor in bringing Reich in after the awkwardly timed firing of Troy Taylor, and no matter what, Reich probably isn’t going to do any worse than Taylor. He went 3-9 in each of his two years on the job, just as predecessor David Shaw went 3-9 in each of his last two years. Stanford’s SP+ ranking has gotten worse in seven of the last nine years, and the last time the win total improved in a given season was 2015. Yikes. After the program’s sudden surge under Jim Harbaugh and Shaw, it’s been a slow-motion disaster for most of a decade.
So yeah, there’s a low bar for Reich. At QB, he and offensive coordinator Nate Byham will try to create something useful out of either senior Ben Gulbranson (Oregon State), sophomore Dylan Rizk (UCF) or redshirt freshman Elijah Brown; the only particularly proven players in the skill corps are smaller-school transfers in running back Tuna Altahir (Eastern Washington) and receivers Caden High (SC State) and David Pantelis (Yale). The offensive line, long loaded with former blue-chippers, doesn’t really have any left. But three starters do return, along with transfers Niki Prongos (UCLA) and Nathan Mejia (Sacramento State). Is there a successful offense in that mix? I don’t see it.
The defense has been horrible for three straight years, but it does have experience and continuity — of 20 players with at least 150 snaps, 15 return. Outside linebacker Tevarua Tafiti, nickel Collin Wright and safety Mitch Leigber are all solid, but the hope has to be that experience and development create something useful.
Things don’t usually turn around for an interim, but at the very least, things probably won’t get worse. Does that count as positive spin?
Sports
Irish OL Jagusah fractures arm in UTV accident
Published
5 hours agoon
July 7, 2025By
admin
-
Adam RittenbergJul 6, 2025, 11:19 AM ET
Close- College football reporter; joined ESPN in 2008. Graduate of Northwestern University.
Notre Dame offensive lineman Charles Jagusah is recovering from surgery to repair a fractured bone in his left arm following a utility terrain vehicle accident Saturday in Wyoming.
The team announced Jagusah will return to campus early this week for further evaluation, and that his prognosis from the surgery which repaired his fractured left humerus, a bone located between the shoulder and elbow, is “favorable.”
The accident is the latest setback for Jagusah, who was projected to start at left tackle for Notre Dame entering the 2024 season but tore a pectoral muscle early in training camp. He missed the entire regular season but returned for the Fighting Irish during their College Football Playoff run, filling in for Rocco Spindler at right guard and then starting the national title game against Ohio State at left tackle.
Jagusah has been set to start at guard for Notre Dame in 2025. The team did not provide an initial timeline for his return.
The 6-foot-7, 333-pound Jagusah is part of a young Notre Dame offensive line that projects to be among the nation’s best. Despite losing veterans Spindler (Nebraska), Pat Coogan (Indiana) and Sam Pendleton (Tennessee) to the transfer portal, Notre Dame returns promising players such as left tackle Anthonie Knapp and center Ashton Craig.
Jagusah was the No. 7 tackle and No. 66 overall recruit in the 2023 class. Notre Dame opens the season Aug. 31 at Miami.

-
Eli LedermanJul 6, 2025, 05:48 PM ET
Close- Eli Lederman covers college football and recruiting for ESPN.com. He joined ESPN in 2024 after covering the University of Oklahoma for Sellout Crowd and the Tulsa World.
Four-star cornerback Chauncey Kennon, No. 48 in the 2026 ESPN 300, announced his commitment to Florida State on Sunday, securing his place as the top-ranked recruit in the Seminoles’ latest recruiting class.
Kennon, a 6-foot-2, 175-pound defender from Sarasota, Florida, is ESPN’s fifth-ranked cornerback prospect in the 2026 cycle. A priority in-state target for Florida State coach Mike Norvell, Kennon chose the Seminoles over Florida, Georgia, LSU, Miami and Oregon.
Kennon lands as the ninth ESPN 300 pledge to land with Florida State since June 1, spurring a run of recruiting momentum that has lifted the program’s 2026 class to No. 12 in ESPN’s latest class rankings. That group of recent additions includes four-star pass catchers Xavier Tiller (No. 84 overall) and Devin Carter (No. 130) and quarterback Jaden O’Neal (No. 166), the former Oklahoma commit and ESPN’s No. 8 pocket passer.
Kennon is now the top-ranked of six ESPN 300 defenders bound for the Seminoles in 2026, joining defensive tackle Earnest Rankins (No. 206 overall), cornerback Lawrence Timmons (No. 264), safeties Tedarius Hughes (No. 275) and Darryl Bell (No. 291) and defensive end James Carrington (No. 288). ESPN 300 commit Efrem White, currently classified as an athlete, could also land in the Florida State secondary when he joins the program next year.
Kennon is a two-way standout at Florida’s Booker High School, where he plays both wide receiver and cornerback. Sidelined by injury for a portion of his junior season, Kennon was credited 33 tackles, 16 pass breakups and an interception last fall, adding 10 receptions for 217 yards and six touchdowns on offense.
Trending
-
Sports3 years ago
‘Storybook stuff’: Inside the night Bryce Harper sent the Phillies to the World Series
-
Sports1 year ago
Story injured on diving stop, exits Red Sox game
-
Sports2 years ago
Game 1 of WS least-watched in recorded history
-
Sports2 years ago
MLB Rank 2023: Ranking baseball’s top 100 players
-
Sports4 years ago
Team Europe easily wins 4th straight Laver Cup
-
Environment2 years ago
Japan and South Korea have a lot at stake in a free and open South China Sea
-
Sports2 years ago
Button battles heat exhaustion in NASCAR debut
-
Environment2 years ago
Game-changing Lectric XPedition launched as affordable electric cargo bike