Editor’s note: This story originally published on Aug. 19, 2025. Paul Skenes and Tarik Skubal are both finalists for the 2025 Cy Young awards to be announced on Nov. 12, 2025.

Both of MLB’s 2025 Cy Young favorites came from humble pitching beginnings. Pittsburgh Pirates ace Paul Skenes started his meteoric rise to stardom at the Air Force Academy, while Detroit Tigers lefty Tarik Skubal came of age at Seattle University. Neither place screams baseball immortality, but both pitchers could be flirting with historic achievements for the rest of their careers provided they stay healthy.

Skenes was the 2024 National League Rookie of the Year, while Skubal won the American League Cy Young Award last season — and their paths recently crossed as the 2025 All-Star Game starting pitchers in Atlanta. As they head down the stretch with the opportunity to collect more hardware this season, ESPN asked their teammates, team personnel and Skubal and Skenes themselves what makes the two best pitchers in the sport so special.

“Really advanced stuff and fill up the strike zone; they go right at guys,” Tigers starter Casey Mize said, summing up the feelings of those who have watched both aces. “So, they’re in advantageous counts a lot, applying a lot of pressure. The biggest thing to worry about is getting jumped early in counts, so they have to be good early on. But it feels like when they get strike one, the at-bat is over.”

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‘He’s a guy that you can talk to when he’s starting’

The similarities between the two pitchers begin with the vibe they generate throughout the stadium when it’s their turn to pitch. There’s a different feeling in the clubhouse on a Skenes or Skubal day because of how games play out when they’re on the mound.

“You just know the other team isn’t going to do very much,” Tigers infielder Zach McKinstry said when it’s a Skubal day. “Defense is kind of boring that game.”

As a smiling teammate Spencer Torkelson added, “You can almost be blindfolded playing behind him.”

Pirates outfielder Tommy Pham has his own way of recognizing when Pittsburgh’s ace is pitching. It begins when Pham gets dressed to come to the park.

“He wears a suit to the field, so I started trying to keep up with him on ‘Skenes Day,'” Pham said. “I call out Skenes Day by wearing a suit with him so he’s not the only one.

“And we normally don’t need to score a lot of runs that day.”

Despite Skenes’ formal attire and nasty stuff, it stands out to his teammates that Skenes is still approachable when it is his day to take the mound.

“He’s a guy that you can talk to when he’s starting,” Pham stated. “I’ve played with guys, when they’re starting, you can’t talk to them, which I feel is bulls—. But he’s not like that.”

Skubal exhibits that trait, as well, according to Detroit infielder Zach McKinstry. Skubal will talk to teammates like it’s any other game.

The confidence in each pitcher’s crafts allows for a normal day, according to the players in both locker rooms.

The Tigers also get an extra jolt of energy during their pennant race as they play meaningful games down the stretch: Comerica Park comes alive when their ace takes the mound.

“Every jersey you see is a No. 29 jersey,” McKinstry said. “They love him. And he loves what he does. And we love to play behind him.”

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‘We play a defensive position, but he makes it look like offense’

If there is one difference between Skubal and Skenes, it is that Skubal is in attack mode more than anyone in the league. He leads MLB in throwing his first pitch for a strike at 70% of the time. Overall, he throws strikes 55% of the time — good for third most in baseball.

Being in the zone so often is one reason Skubal is third in the majors in innings pitched this season, after finishing eighth in that category last season.

“When it gets to those later innings, you do feel like he has a chance to go the distance,” Tigers reliever Will Vest said. “It’s because he’s so efficient with his pitches.”

Skubal has pitched at least seven innings in 10 starts this season, including his signature outing: a 13-strikeout shutout against the Cleveland Guardians on May 25. That performance still resonates in the Tigers’ clubhouse three months later, especially after his last pitch registered at 103 mph.

“The aggressiveness,” Mize explained. “We play a defensive position, but he makes it look like offense. He’s going at everybody. He doesn’t care. That game illustrated that.”

Skenes, on the other hand, ranks 33rd in first-strike percentage (62.1) with a full arsenal that allows him to attack hitters differently.

“He has a larger tool box,” Pirates assistant pitching coach Brent Strom said. “It enables him to have weapons against different types of hitters. He pitches to his strengths.”

According to Baseball Savant, Skenes has thrown seven different types of pitches this season — as compared with Skubal’s five — and Skenes’ swinging-strike percentage ranks seventh. It all adds up to a pitch mix that keeps hitters baffled, even when they get pitches to hit.

“It’s full-on ‘here it is, hit it,'” Pirates catcher Joey Bart said. “He’s not scared of anyone.”

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‘Everything is by the numbers, and he leaves nothing to chance’

Every player, no matter the position, has a routine to prepare for competition. But Skenes is especially unique in that regard.

One day, between starts, Pham asked to stand in the batter’s box while Skenes threw a bullpen session.

“Then the next day, I asked who’s throwing a pen because I needed to test out my contact lenses again,” Pham explained. “And Skenes says, ‘Hey, I’m throwing a pen.'”

Pham gave him a confused look, knowing Skenes had thrown the day before.

“He’s like, ‘Yeah, I throw every day, except for the day before my start,'” Pham recalled. “When I found that out, I was like, yeah, he’s different. I’ve never seen anybody do that.”

Strom noted that not every bullpen session is built the same. There’s purpose to the preparation.

“His work is very organized,” Strom said. “Very thoughtful. Everything is by the numbers, and he leaves nothing to chance. He’s very cerebral. He understands what’s necessary.”

Bart recalled Skenes’ early days with the club after getting called up in May 2024. The catcher recognized the detailed preparation of the former LSU star even then, including how Skenes readied for his very first outing against the Chicago Cubs.

“I remember the first pregame meeting last year,” Bart said. “He ran the meeting in his debut. I was like, ‘Go ahead and take it, dude. You got it.’ He has been groomed for this.”

That kind of intense and directed preparedness has gained attention and admiration around the league, and it is what Skubal identified as Skenes’ most impressive trait.

“He seems like he has his routine and preparation already figured out at a young age,” Skubal said. “It took me until I was 26 to be a good big league baseball player and figure that out. And he’s doing it at 23. That’s four years faster than me. Yeah, that’s really impressive.”

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‘He just wants to show that there is something memorable about greatness’

There’s an aura of self-assuredness to Skubal that stands out as compared with even other aces, according to those around him. He has been called a “bulldog” with a “killer” mentality by his teammates: He won’t back down, no matter the circumstance.

“He comes after you,” Torkelson said. “In big situations, he trusts his best stuff. You kind of know what you’re going to get, and it’s still hard to hit.”

That confidence enables Skubal to put himself in pitcher’s counts (0-1, 0-2, 1-2, 2-2) 45.7% of the time, more than any other hurler in the game, according to ESPN Research. And until you show you can hit one of his best offers, he’ll just keep throwing it. He has 93 strikeouts on his changeup, second only to Philadelphia Phillies starter Cristopher Sanchez.

That mindset is what stands out most about Skubal to Skenes.

“He can go after hitters straight up,” Skenes said. “He gets them out quickly, which is why he pitches deep in games. He does that better than anyone else in the game. But it starts with going right at them. That takes confidence.”

Skubal has a commanding presence, according to Tigers play-by-play announcer Jason Benetti. It doesn’t hurt that his size (6-foot-3 and 240 pounds) naturally creates some intimidation when he is on the mound, but he makes himself known whenever he is in the game.

“On the day the All-Stars were announced last year, the Tigers were in Cincinnati, and he struck out [Elly] De La Cruz and there was this big primal scream — and that’s this indelible memory for me,” Benetti said of Skubal. “Because that is a guy that people hear about that there’s noise about, and he wants that.

“He ends innings and outings at 102 mph because he just wants to show that there is something memorable about greatness, is the way I would put it. He has greatness.”

The hot stove season is already burning, but even amid the roster shuffling for the 2026 season, we have one last bit of 2025 business: handing out the major awards.

The most prestigious are the four major honors determined by BBWAA voting. These awards will have a lasting impact on baseball history books and Hall of Fame résumés.

On Monday, Athletics first baseman Nick Kurtz was unanimously selected as the American League Rookie of the Year, and Atlanta Braves rookie catcher Drake Baldwin earned the National League honor.

Milwaukee Brewers manager Pat Murphy and Cleveland Guardians manager Stephen Vogt each won their second consecutive Manager of the Year award on Tuesday.

Here is the remaining schedule (awards are announced starting at 7 ET each night on MLB Network):

Wednesday: Cy Young Awards
Thursday: MVP Awards

MLB will also hold its annual awards show in Las Vegas on Thursday, during which it will recognize its All-MLB squads, the Hank Aaron Awards for each league’s best offensive performer, the Comeback Player of the Year Awards, the Mariano Rivera/Trevor Hoffman Awards for the top relievers, and the Edgar Martinez Awards for best designated hitters. The Executive of the Year Award will also be announced.

I’ll be reacting to each night’s awards announcement throughout the week, but in the meantime, here are some opening comments and some brief reaction to the honors that have been awarded.

Below, we list the three finalists in each of the big-four categories, with what you need to know before the results are announced and my picks to take home the hardware. We’ll update each section with news and analysis as the winners are revealed.

Jump to:
MVP: AL | NL
Cy Young: AL | NL
Rookie of the Year: AL | NL
Manager of the Year: AL | NL

National League Manager of the Year

Winner: Pat Murphy, Milwaukee Brewers

Final tally: Murphy 141 (27 first-place votes), Terry Francona 49 (2), Rob Thomson 32 (1), Craig Counsell 24, Clayton McCullough 22, Torey Lovullo 1, Mike Shildt 1

Doolittle’s pick: Murphy

Takeaway: The measures that feed EARL anointed Murphy pretty early in the season. Though the Brewers were a division winner in 2024, when Murphy won the award in his first full season as a big league manager, they were pegged for a .500-ish baseline entering the season. Instead, Milwaukee raced to a franchise record, a 17-win surplus against expectation that was the most in the majors. (McCullough’s Marlins were plus-15, hence his presence in the EARL leaderboard below.)

Murphy creates a fun, positive clubhouse atmosphere, keeping things light when it’s warranted, and getting heavy when it’s needed. He treats everyone the same, from the journeyman roster fill-in to franchise cornerstone Christian Yelich, not to mention everyone else in the great ecosystem of baseball that comes across his path on a daily basis. His skill set in building an upbeat culture doesn’t get enough attention — it’s an essential trait for a club that’s always iterating its roster.

One sign of a good manager is the ability to integrate rookies. Well, this season Milwaukee easily led the majors in rookie WAR, even as the Brewers chased another division crown. They played an exciting brand of offensive baseball that featured plenty of action on the basepaths and adherence to situational execution. They deployed one of the game’s top defenses. All of these things are hallmarks of a well-managed squad.

The Brewers remain perhaps baseball’s best-run franchise, a distinction that requires aptitude from the front office to the dugout, where Murphy presides. He becomes the first back-to-back NL Manager of the Year winner since Bobby Cox (2004-05), who did it with the Braves. The only other back-to-back winner was Tampa Bay’s Kevin Cash, the AL’s honoree in 2020-21. Murphy, who managed San Diego on an interim basis in 2015, is the first skipper to win in his first two full seasons.

Here’s how my EARL leaderboard had it:

1. Pat Murphy, Brewers (113.7 EARL, finalist)
2. Clayton McCullough, Marlins (106.9)
3. Oliver Marmol, Cardinals (106.1)
4. Rob Thomson, Phillies (103.9, finalist)
5. Craig Counsell, Cubs (103.4)
6. Mike Shildt, Padres (103.2)
7. Terry Francona, Reds (101.7 finalist)

Note: EARL is a metric that looks at how a team’s winning percentage varies from expectations generated by projections, run differential and one-run record. While attributing these measures to managerial performance is presumptive, the metric does tend to track well with the annual balloting.

Manager of the Year must-reads:

Welcome to ‘Milwaukee Community College’: How the Brewers built a $115 million juggernaut

Why Terry Francona, Bruce Bochy came back to managing in MLB

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American League Manager of the Year

Winner: Stephen Vogt, Cleveland Guardians

Final tally: Vogt 113 (28 first-place votes), John Schneider 91 (10), Dan Wilson 50 (2), Alex Cora 7 (1), A.J. Hinch 6, Joe Espada 3

Doolittle’s pick: Schneider

Takeaway: The AL Manager of the Year race remained murky to me up to and including the day that awards finalists were announced. EARL, an algorithm that seeks to create order out of the chaotic process of rating managers, was all over the place through the season. Hinch, who was favored in many of the betting markets until he turned out to not be a finalist, was submarined by his team’s drastic midseason fall-off (though he should have received credit for side-stepping a complete collapse and earning a playoff spot).

That left last year’s winner, Vogt, whose Guardians made a stirring run to overtake the Tigers in the AL Central, as well as Wilson, skipper of the AL West champion Mariners, and Schneider, who guided the Blue Jays to the East crown. In the end, the voters were picking between the AL’s three division-winning managers.

Worst to first is always a great narrative — and perhaps the best argument in favor for Schneider after the Blue Jays rebounded from 2024’s last-place finish to win Toronto’s first division title in a decade, one that was validated with a postseason run all the way to extra innings of Game 7 of the World Series. Schneider was strong in wins versus Pythagorean-based expectation (94 wins for a win expectation of 88.5) and record in one- and two-run contests (43-30).

But Vogt beat him in both areas, and the same held true in terms of preseason expectations. Toronto beat its preseason over/under consensus by 10 wins, the fourth-best performance in the majors. Third best? Vogt, at 10.5. Vogt becomes the fourth manager to win back-to-back awards, minutes after the Murphy in the NL became the third.

Worst to first: Great story. Coming back from 15½ games back on July 8? Even better.

Here’s how my EARL leaderboard had it:

1. A.J. Hinch, Tigers (108.3, EARL)
2. John Schneider, Blue Jays (107.8, finalist)
3. Joe Espada, Astros (107.0)
4. Stephen Vogt, Guardians (105.2, finalist)
5. Dan Wilson, Mariners (103.5, finalist)
6. Matt Quatraro, Royals (101.8)
7. Mark Kotsay, Athletics (99.6)

Manager of the Year must-reads:

How the high-contact, high-octane Blue Jays nearly took down a baseball superpower — and could change MLB

The magic chemistry of the Blue Jays clubhouse

How Mariners got their mojo

American League Rookie of the Year

Winner: Nick Kurtz, Athletics (unanimous)

Final tally: Nick Kurtz 210 (30 first-place votes), Jacob Wilson 107, Roman Anthony 72, Noah Cameron 54, Colson Montgomery 23, Carlos Narvaez 21, Jack Leiter 6, Will Warren 5, Luke Keaschall 3, Braydon Fisher 2, Shane Smith 2, Cam Smith 2, Chandler Simpson 1, Luis Morales 1, Jasson Dominguez 1

Doolittle’s pick: Kurtz

Takeaway: Before the season, Kurtz’s name wasn’t near the top of the list for AL Rookie of the Year candidates. He didn’t lack hype — he was viewed by many as the Athletics’ top prospect — but his meteoric rise was unexpected.

Kurtz, the fourth pick in 2024, played just 12 minor league games and another 13 in last year’s Arizona Fall League before this season. So, it made sense that he began the season in Triple-A, where he posted a 1.000-plus OPS, which he has done every step of the way.

Kurtz debuted in the majors April 23, and 117 games later, his 1.002 rookie-season OPS ranks as the fifth best for a rookie (minimum 480 plate appearances) behind Aaron Judge, Ted Williams, Albert Pujols and Ryan Braun. But none of those greats matched Kurtz’s accomplishment against the Houston Astros on July 25, when he hit four homers, finished with six hits and tied Shawn Green’s big league record for total bases in a game (19).

The ninth Rookie of the Year in Athletics history, Kurtz’s slash line (.290/.383/.619) at 22 is evidence that he’s the complete package at the plate and still might improve. But even if he doesn’t, and this is what he is going forward, he’s one of the best hitters in the majors.

The other two finalists — Roman Anthony and Jacob Wilson — were both high on preseason lists for the award and validated that anticipation with fine rookie seasons. Wilson’s .311 average ranked third in the majors. He was one of seven qualifying hitters in the majors to hit at least .300. Anthony lived up to massive hype upon his arrival at Fenway Park, but he suffered an oblique injury Sept. 2, ending his chances of overtaking Kurtz for the award.

Here’s how my AXE leaderboard had it:

1. Nick Kurtz, Athletics (126 AXE)
2. Jacob Wilson, Athletics (118)
3. (tie) Roman Anthony, Boston Red Sox (115)
Noah Cameron, Kansas City Royals (115)
Colson Montgomery, Chicago White Sox (115)
6. Carlos Narvaez, Boston Red Sox (110)
7. Shane Smith, Chicago White Sox (109)

Note: AXE is an index that creates a consensus rating from the leading value metrics (WAR, from FanGraphs and Baseball Reference) and contextual metrics (win probability added and championship probability added, both from Baseball Reference), with 100 representing the MLB average.

ROY must-reads:

Passan Awards: Nick Kurtz wins ‘Individual Performance of the Year’

How a swing tweak has Red Sox rookie Roman Anthony rolling

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National League Rookie of the Year

Winner: Drake Baldwin, Atlanta Braves

Final tally: Drake Baldwin 183 (21 first-place votes), Cade Horton 139 (9), Caleb Durbin 69, Isaac Collins 62, Daylen Lile 17, Agustin Ramirez 10, Chad Patrick 9, Jakob Marsee 8, Jack Dreyer 4, Matt Shaw 4, Jacob Misiorowski 2, Nolan McLean 2, Heriberto Hernandez 1

Doolittle’s pick: Baldwin

Takeaway: The voters favored Baldwin’s full-season production over Horton’s remarkable second half. It was a tough call, but Baldwin established himself as one of the game’s outstanding young catchers. Baldwin hit .274/.341/.469 over 124 games, numbers strong enough to earn him regular DH time on days he wasn’t catching. That’s key, because Atlanta still has veteran Sean Murphy under contract for three more years.

Like his AL counterpart Kurtz, Baldwin was considered his organization’s top prospect by many when the season began, but he was expected to make his big league debut late in 2025 or in 2026. Baldwin got his chance when Murphy suffered a cracked rib in spring training. The Braves had several journeyman backups in camp, but Baldwin was so impressive that he started behind the plate on Opening Day.

Baldwin is the first catcher to win NL Rookie of the Year since Buster Posey in 2010. The only other Braves catcher to win the award was Earl Williams (1971), though Williams divided his time between catching and the infield.

If Horton had a first half that matched his post-All-Star-break performance, he might have been a unanimous pick and even entered the Cy Young debate. In 12 second-half starts, Horton went 8-1 with a 1.03 ERA, allowing just 33 hits while striking out 54 over 61⅓ innings. He allowed one run or fewer in 11 of those outings. Horton’s efforts helped the Chicago Cubs, who were scrambling to make the postseason with a short-handed rotation. This shows up in his probability stats: Horton ranked 12th among all NL pitchers in win probability added and 13th in championship probability added.

Caleb Durbin was a vital cog in the Milwaukee Brewers‘ run to a franchise-best 97 wins. He was also one of several rookies in Milwaukee who were key contributors to the Brewers’ run to the NLCS. If “Brewers rookie” was an option on the ballot, “Brewers rookie” should have won.

Here’s how my AXE leaderboard had it:

1. Drake Baldwin, Atlanta Braves (115)
2. Caleb Durbin, Milwaukee Brewers (113)
3. Cade Horton, Chicago Cubs (112)
4. Isaac Collins, Milwaukee Brewers (111)
5. Chad Patrick, Milwaukee Brewers (110)
6. Jakob Marsee, Miami Marlins (109)
7. Braxton Ashcraft, Pittsburgh Pirates (108)

American League MVP

Finalists:

Aaron Judge, New York Yankees
Cal Raleigh, Seattle Mariners
Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Guardians

My pick: Raleigh

What to know: We’re going to dive deep into the riveting race between Judge and Raleigh later this week. According to my AXE rating, which is an index that expresses the consensus of the leading bottom-line metrics, the winner is Judge (164 to 150) and it’s not particularly close.

Despite the easy statistical case for Judge, I see this as a case in which the narrative and intangible elements overwhelm the metrics. And that’s not to undersell Raleigh’s metrics, which are more than MVP-worthy. But despite another historic season from Judge, I’m going with Raleigh.

Again, we’ll get into the nitty-gritty of the numbers later, but the soft factors that swing my thinking are these: Raleigh’s 60-homer season is the stuff of science fiction when viewed through the lens of what’s expected from every-day catchers. It not only shattered the single-season mark for the position, but it broke Mickey Mantle’s record for homers by a switch-hitter. Mickey freaking Mantle. And Raleigh’s a (darn good) catcher!

Raleigh did all of this as the defensive anchor and clubhouse leader on a division champion. There aren’t many seasons when I’d pick someone as MVP over the 2025 version of Aaron Judge, but this is one of them. Sure, I’m a stat guy, so this feels like a departure from that foundation, but sometimes a narrative is just too compelling to ignore.

Finally, poor Jose Ramirez. This is Ramirez’s sixth time landing in the AL’s top five in MVP balloting, and eighth time in the top 10. But he’s not going to win. Ramirez just keeps churning out the same great season every year. It’s just that there has always been someone a little greater each season.

That being said: Kansas City’s Bobby Witt Jr. should have been the third finalist. He’ll be back.

MVP must-reads:

What it’s really like facing Aaron Judge

Can Yankees build a title-winning team around Aaron Judge?

‘It’s something that’s never been done’: Inside Cal Raleigh’s road to HR history

Why the Mariners are built to last after a crushing ALCS loss

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National League MVP

Finalists:

Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers
Kyle Schwarber, Philadelphia Phillies
Juan Soto, New York Mets

My pick: Ohtani

What to know: Together, the three NL MVP finalists logged 63% of their starts at designated hitter. Most of the non-DH starts came from Soto, whose defensive metrics continue to suggest a future of increased DH time. Still, the days of DHs being locked out of the MVP chase are clearly over.

Ohtani was the first exclusive DH to win an MVP last year, though he’d won it before while serving as an every-day DH in addition to pitching. He logged 1.1 bWAR this season for his 47 innings on the mound, which could have proved to be a tiebreaker if he and the other finalists were close. But it’s Ohtani all the way.

As hitters, all three used up a similar number of outs as Ohtani, who had at least a 20-run advantage in runs created over both. Shockingly, it was Soto who had the best baserunning numbers, thanks to his 38-steal breakout and Ohtani deemphasizing that part of his game. But Ohtani provided easily the most defensive value with his pitching, while Soto’s defense was a negative and Schwarber was almost exclusively a DH.

Basically, everything Schwarber and Soto did, Ohtani did better — and he pitched well. Even Schwarber’s league-leading RBI count (132) is trumped by Ohtani’s decided edge in WPA, a category in which he led the league. It’s Ohtani’s award, again, and it will be No. 4 for him. Only Barry Bonds has won more.

Not for nothing, you know which position player posted the highest bWAR total? That would be a nonfinalist: Arizona’s Geraldo Perdomo (7.0 bWAR), though he did finish behind Ohtani when the latter’s pitching bWAR is added.

MVP must-reads:

2025 MLB most exciting player bracket: Ohtani, Judge, more

The improbability of Shohei Ohtani’s greatness

Schwarber, All-Star swing-off captures the beauty of baseball

Inside Juan Soto’s wild first Mets season

Juan Soto, the showman, finally showing up for Mets

‘He turned his back on us’: What it was like watching Soto’s Bronx return with the Bleacher Creatures

American League Cy Young

Finalists:

Hunter Brown, Houston Astros
Garrett Crochet, Boston Red Sox
Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers

My pick: Skubal

Skubal is well positioned to become the AL’s first repeat Cy Young winner since Pedro Martinez in 2000. He might just be getting started. The dominant lefty didn’t repeat as a pitching Triple Crown winner, but he posted a lower ERA (2.21 to 2.39) and struck out more batters (241 to 228) than he did while winning the Cy Young Award in 2024. For the second straight year, he led the AL in pitching bWAR, FIP and ERA+.

That’s a tough résumé for Crochet to top, but he came pretty close, leading the AL in innings (205⅓) and strikeouts (255) and beating Skubal in wins (18 to 13). Skubal was a little more consistent in terms of average game score (64.2 to 62.6). Skubal really didn’t rout Crochet in any key area, but he beat him just the same in most columns.

Brown is a worthy No. 3, but for him, it’s the same story: He hung with the big two in most areas but didn’t top them. Still, it was another season of improvement for Brown, whose ERA over the past three seasons has gone from 5.09 to 3.49 to 2.43.

Cy Young must-reads:

The extraordinary mystery of the Tigers’ Tarik Skubal

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National League Cy Young

Finalists:

Cristopher Sanchez, Philadelphia Phillies
Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates
Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Los Angeles Dodgers

My pick: Sanchez

My AXE system wasn’t particularly emphatic about the No. 3 pitcher in the NL Cy Young column, so Yamamoto is as good a pick there as any. We start with him because his dominant postseason run is fresh in our minds. But that doesn’t factor in here. Maybe it should, but it doesn’t. In any event, I’d have gone with Milwaukee’s Freddy Peralta as my No. 3.

Regardless of the third finalist, during the regular season, Skenes and Sanchez gradually separated themselves from the pack, especially after Sanchez’s teammate Zack Wheeler was injured. They are the easy top two but picking between them isn’t that easy.

Sanchez has the edge in volume — 202 innings to 187⅔, in part because the Pirates eased up on Skenes toward the end. Indeed, failure to do so would have been malpractice. Despite that, Skenes struck out more batters (216 to 212), posted a better ERA (1.97 to 2.50) and led the league in ERA+, WHIP and FIP. The extra 14⅓ innings allowed Sanchez a narrow win in bWAR (8.0 to 7.7).

In the end, their runs saved against average is a virtual dead heat: 53 for Sanchez against 52 for Skenes. Thus for me it comes down to context. Sanchez put up his season for a division champ, Skenes for a cellar dweller. That is not Skenes’ fault, but we’ve got to separate these pitchers somehow. Sanchez’s season was worth 3.2% championship probability added against Skenes’ 0.5%. That’s the clincher for me.

But I think Skenes will win the vote.

Cy Young must-reads:

How young aces Skenes, Skubal dominate

Other awards

Just a run-through of my picks, leaving aside the Comeback Player category, which is tough to attack analytically:

Executive of the Year: Matt Arnold, Milwaukee Brewers. I have a metric I use to track organizational performance. It looks at things such as the performance of acquired players, organizational records and the value produced by rookies. Arnold’s club topped the charts. Arnold won this award last year, so we’ll find out if there is an Arnold fatigue at work here. If Arnold doesn’t win, I’d lean toward Seattle’s Jerry Dipoto.

All-MLB: My All-MVP first team, courtesy of AXE:

1B: Matt Olson, Atlanta Braves
2B: Nico Hoerner, Chicago Cubs
SS: Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals
3B: Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Guardians
C: Cal Raleigh, Seattle Mariners
OF: Juan Soto, New York Mets
OF: Aaron Judge, New York Yankees
OF: Corbin Carroll, Arizona Diamondbacks
DH: Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers
LHP: Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers
RHP: Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates
RP: Aroldis Chapman, Boston Red Sox

Hank Aaron Award: Aaron Judge (AL, New York Yankees); Shohei Ohtani (NL, Los Angeles Dodgers)

Mariano Rivera Award: Aroldis Chapman, Boston Red Sox

Trevor Hoffman Award: Edwin Diaz, New York Mets

Gold Gloves: The winners have been announced and can be found here. My quibbles: I would have gone with Toronto’s Alejandro Kirk at AL catcher over Detroit’s Dillon Dingler. On the NL side, I’d have liked to find a spot for Washington’s Jacob Young, but the insistence on LF/CF/RF distinctions ruled that out. All in all, another pretty solid job in an awards category that used to be rife with absurdities.

LAS VEGAS — After brushing off baseball inquiries during the first five seasons following his surprising decision to leave his longtime sport for the Cleveland Browns, Paul DePodesta couldn’t resist the challenge of turning the Colorado Rockies into a consistent winner.

“It had to be the right situation,” he said Tuesday, four days after he was hired as president of baseball operations. “And that right situation includes a challenge, ownership, geography, other things like people I might be able to work with. So this came about, and we started going through that calculus. This came about, and it’s very interesting.”

After time in front offices of the Oakland Athletics, Los Angeles Dodgers, San Diego Padres and New York Mets, DePodesta became the Browns’ chief strategy officer in January 2016.

He takes over a team coming off a 119-loss season, that hasn’t had a winning record since 2018 and has never won the World Series. Its only National League pennant in 2007 was followed by a four-game Series loss to Boston.

DePodesta, who turns 53 next month, has to fill the last remaining manager vacancy. The Rockies are coming off a season in which they drew 2.4 million at home, down from 3 million in 2018.

“I think probably the most important thing for me is being a great relationship manager with the players,” DePodesta said at Major League Baseball’s general managers meetings. “We’re trying to build a culture in the clubhouse. Certainly, there are game strategy and other things that are important, but that manager relationship piece and being sort of a great teammate, too, with the rest of the organization, those things are equally valuable.”

DePodesta rose in the sport among a new generation of analytics thinkers who would come to dominate the game. DePodesta was the inspiration for Jonah Hill’s character in “Moneyball” about the 2002 A’s that won 102 games and captured the AL West despite a small payroll.

The Dodgers hired DePodesta at age 31 in 2004 to be their GM, and he lasted just 20 months. After time with the Padres and Mets he moved to the NFL. Cleveland’s record was 56-99-1 with DePodesta in the front office.

He signed a five-year contract with the Browns in 2020 and told ownership he didn’t believe he would be there that long, that the pieces were in place for sustained winning. The Browns went 11-5 that season and made the playoffs, but they failed to build on that success and have had just one winning record since.

So DePodesta stayed longer than planned to try to get the organization heading in the right direction.

“Really, the last four years, I started thinking about what might be next,” DePodesta said.

DePodesta continued to follow baseball from afar.

“I have friends across all different front offices,” he said. “There are a handful I’ve kept in very good touch with over the past 10 years, and they would hit me up with things that were happening in the NFL. I always tried to keep abreast of what was happening, certainly not to the extent where I was working full time. But, yes, I was still interested.”