Manfred touts playoff format; Clark not as certain
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Jesse Rogers, ESPN Staff Writer
ARLINGTON — While MLB commissioner Rob Manfred is willing to discuss and evaluate the league’s new playoff format, now two years old, his overall view is that it’s been a good thing for baseball. But Tony Clark, executive director of the Major League Baseball Players Association, isn’t as convinced.
The topic came up before Game 1 of the World Series, which pits the 84-win Arizona Diamondbacks against the 90-win Texas Rangers. All three 100-win teams — the Baltimore Orioles, Los Angeles Dodgers and Atlanta Braves — were eliminated in the divisional round.
“This went a little bit different than last year,” Clark, speaking Friday, said of the playoff upsets. “We’ll see how things continue to manifest themselves moving forward. But I’ll say this: At the outset, the interest by the league was a 14-team playoff. Our players were very cautious, both because there may be unintended consequences but, secondly, because they wanted to make sure that over the course of 162 [games], there was value still given to the division winners.”
Manfred pushed back on that notion, emphasizing the beauty of unpredictability come October. Last season, the final four teams left in the playoffs included two wild-card teams and two division winners. This year, three wild-card teams were among the final four, with only Houston making it to the league championship series as a division winner.
“One of the greatest things about the playoffs in baseball is anybody can win,” Manfred said Friday. “It’s about the competition that takes place in the postseason. I don’t think what happened this year is all that out of line with history. Since 1980, only 11% of [100-win] teams have won the World Series. That’s how baseball playoffs are, and frankly how I think they should be.”
The union’s worry is about teams doing just enough to get into the postseason instead of working harder to win their division. The latter goal usually means a higher payroll.
“We came into that negotiation believing that the system wasn’t broke — the 10 teams,” Clark said. “Players, over the course of those conversations, were willing to go to 12, and so, yes, we made 12-team proposals during the course of that negotiation and all of them were premised on ensuring that the team that won the division over the course of the long run was put in a position that respected and appreciated that.”
The union proposed a longer division series as a way to potentially allow division winners to prevail. The best-of-five format has produced multiple upsets over the first two years of the new format. The MLBPA also suggested division winners who play in the best-of-three wild-card round start the series up 1-0.
“The proposals we made included putting the division winners in a place where they didn’t have to win as many games to advance,” Clark said.
Manfred is well aware of the conversation surrounding the playoff format, indicating recently that it’s still too early to draw conclusions. But that doesn’t mean there won’t be discussions this offseason.
“It will at least motivate a conversation about whether we have that right,” Manfred said. “That conversation will take place post the season. Enough has been written and said that we have to think about it and talk about it, but my own view is the format served us pretty well.
“If the die was cast, meaning, ‘If I win 100 in the regular season I’m going to win the World Series,’ I don’t think that’s as interesting as what we’ve witnessed over the last month.”
Manfred also addressed the league’s attempt to develop a baseball capable of providing a good grip for pitchers without allowing them to overly manipulate the ball. They’re still working on it.
“Our progress on the baseball has been a C-minus,” he said. “You’re trying to find that sweet spot between better grip for the pitchers without dramatically increased spin rate. Thought we had a pretty good model last year, but it got gummy when it got hot. We had a good conversation with Japanese professionals about what they’ve done with their baseball. Hoping that will move us forward.”
The 2025 MLB All-Star Home Run Derby is fast approaching — and the field is set.
Braves hometown hero Ronald Acuna Jr. became the first player to commit to the event, which will be held at Truist Park in Atlanta on July 14 (8 p.m. ET on ESPN). He was followed by MLB home run leader Cal Raleigh of the Seattle Mariners, James Wood of the Washington Nationals, Byron Buxton of the Minnesota Twins, Oneil Cruz of the Pittsburgh Pirates, Junior Caminero of the Tampa Bay Rays, Brent Rooker of the Athletics and Jazz Chisholm Jr. of the New York Yankees.
On Friday, however, Acuna was replaced by teammate Matt Olson.
With all the entrants announced, let’s break down their chances at taking home this year’s Derby prize.
Full All-Star Game coverage: How to watch, schedule, rosters, more
2025 home runs: 17 | Longest: 434 feet
Why he could win: Olson is a late replacement for Acuna as the home team’s representative at this year’s Derby. Apart from being the Braves’ first baseman, however, Olson also was born in Atlanta and grew up a Braves fan, giving him some extra motivation. The left-handed slugger led the majors in home runs in 2023 — his 54 round-trippers that season also set a franchise record — and he remains among the best in the game when it comes to exit velo and hard-hit rate.
Why he might not: The home-field advantage can also be a detriment if a player gets too hyped up in the first round. See Julio Rodriguez in Seattle in 2023, when he had a monster first round, with 41 home runs, but then tired out in the second round.
2025 home runs: 36 | Longest: 440 feet
Why he could win: It’s the season of Cal! The Mariners’ catcher is having one of the greatest slugging first halves in MLB history, as he’s been crushing mistakes all season . His easy raw power might be tailor-made for the Derby — he ranks in the 87th percentile in average exit velocity and delivers the ball, on average, at the optimal home run launch angle of 23 degrees. His calm demeanor might also be perfect for the contest as he won’t get too amped up.
Why he might not: He’s a catcher — and one who has carried a heavy workload, playing in all but one game this season. This contest is as much about stamina as anything, and whether Raleigh can carry his power through three rounds would be a concern. No catcher has ever won the Derby, with only Ivan Rodriguez back in 2005 even reaching the finals.
2025 home runs: 24 | Longest: 451 feet
Why he could win: He’s big, he’s strong, he’s young, he’s awesome, he might or might not be able to leap tall buildings in a single bound. This is the perfect opportunity for Wood to show his talent on the national stage, and he wouldn’t be the first young player to star in the Derby. He ranks in the 97th percentile in average exit velocity and 99th percentile in hard-hit rate, so he can still muscle the ball out in BP even if he slightly mishits it. His long arms might be viewed as a detriment, but remember the similarly tall Aaron Judge won in 2017.
Why he might not: His natural swing isn’t a pure uppercut — he has a pretty low average launch angle of just 6.2 degrees — so we’ll see how that plays in a rapid-fire session. In real games, his power is primarily to the opposite field, but in a Home Run Derby you can get more cheapies pulling the ball down the line.
2025 home runs: 20 | Longest: 479 feet
Why he could win: Buxton’s raw power remains as impressive as nearly any hitter in the game. He crushed a 479-foot home run earlier this season and has four others of at least 425 feet. Indeed, his “no doubter” percentage — home runs that would be out of all 30 parks based on distance — is 75%, the highest in the majors among players with more than a dozen home runs. His bat speed ranks in the 89th percentile. In other words, two tools that could translate to a BP lightning show.
Why he might not: Buxton is 31 and the Home Run Derby feels a little more like a younger man’s competition. Teoscar Hernandez did win last year at age 31, but before that, the last winner older than 29 was David Ortiz in 2010, and that was under much different rules than are used now.
2025 home runs: 16 | Longest: 463 feet
Why he could win: If you drew up a short list of players everyone wants to see in the Home Run Derby, Cruz would be near the top. He has the hardest-hit ball of the 2025 season, and the hardest ever tracked by Statcast, a 432-foot missile of a home run with an exit velocity of 122.9 mph. He also crushed a 463-foot home run in Anaheim that soared way beyond the trees in center field. With his elite bat speed — 100th percentile — Cruz has the ability to awe the crowd with a potentially all-time performance.
Why he might not: Like all first-time contestants, can he stay within himself and not get too caught up in the moment? He has a long swing, which will result in some huge blasts, but might not be the most efficient for a contest like this one, where the more swings a hitter can get in before the clock expires, the better.
2025 home runs: 23 | Longest: 425 feet
Why he could win: Although Caminero was one of the most hyped prospects entering 2024, everyone kind of forgot about him heading into this season since he didn’t immediately rip apart the majors as a rookie. In his first full season, however, he has showed off his big-time raw power — giving him a chance to become just the third player to reach 40 home runs in his age-21 season. He has perhaps the quickest bat in the majors, ranking in the 100th percentile in bat speed, and his top exit velocity ranks in the top 15. That could translate to a barrage of home runs.
Why he might not: In game action, Caminero does hit the ball on the ground quite often — in fact, he’s on pace to break Jim Rice’s record for double plays grounded into in a season. If he gets out of rhythm, that could lead to a lot of low line drives during the Derby instead of fly balls that clear the fences.
2025 home runs: 19 | Longest: 440 feet
Why he could win: The Athletics slugger has been one of the top power hitters in the majors for three seasons now and is on his way to a third straight 30-homer season. Rooker has plus bat speed and raw power, but his biggest strength is an optimal average launch angle (19 degrees in 2024, 15 degrees this season) that translates to home runs in game action. That natural swing could be picture perfect for the Home Run Derby. He also wasn’t shy about saying he wanted to participate — and maybe that bodes well for his chances.
Why he might not: Rooker might not have quite the same raw power as some of the other competitors, as he has just one home run longer than 425 feet in 2025. But that’s a little nitpicky, as 11 of his home runs have still gone 400-plus feet. He competed in the college home run derby in Omaha while at Mississippi State in 2016 and finished fourth.
2025 home runs: 17 | Longest: 442 feet
Why he could win: Chisholm might not be the most obvious name to participate, given his career high of 24 home runs, but he has belted 17 already in 2025 in his first 61 games after missing some time with an injury. He ranks among the MLB leaders in a couple of home run-related categories, ranking in the 96th percentile in expected slugging percentage and 98th percentile in barrel rate. His raw power might not match that of the other participants, but he’s a dead-pull hitter who has increased his launch angle this season, which might translate well to the Derby, even if he won’t be the guy hitting the longest home runs.
Why he might not: Most of the guys who have won this have been big, powerful sluggers. Chisholm is listed at 5-foot-11, 184 pounds, and you have to go back to Miguel Tejada in 2004 to find the last player under 6 foot to win.
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