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The beauty pageant that is the College Football Playoff rankings begins Tuesday, which made Week 9 a perfect time for a few top teams — Florida State, Texas, Georgia and Oregon — to flex for the judges, while a few others are apparently saving their best for the evening gown portion of the contest.

Saturday was a day in which one playoff hopeful — Oklahoma — was asked to move to the back of the line.

It was a day in which Ohio State and Washington survived scares but once again proved their mettle.

It was a day in which the biggest and baddest bruisers in the country stuffed their competition into a locker and stole their lunch money.

In other words, it was a Saturday that gave the committee a lot to chew on without making the job of ranking the remaining contenders all that much easier.

Georgia has developed a reputation for having two speeds: Bored or Death Star. Saturday’s showdown with Florida fell distinctly into the planet-destroying category.

Carson Beck and Ladd McConkey, who somehow aren’t the namesakes of a successful venture capital firm, hooked up six times for 135 yards and a score, and the Bulldogs’ D sacked Florida four times in a 43-20 win.

A quick recap: Georgia beat South Carolina by 10 and Auburn by seven. Both of those teams are awful. Georgia beat ranked Kentucky by 38 and a streaking Florida by 23. Lull the Dawgs to sleep, and you have a chance. Convince Georgia you’re dangerous, and you should probably pack a spare pair of underwear. This leads us to the unmistakable conclusion that the only team that can end this Georgia dynasty is Iowa.

The knock on Florida State through a 7-0 start was that the Seminoles had yet to post a genuinely complete performance. Saturday’s 41-16 win over Wake Forest offered an answer. Jordan Travis threw for 359 yards, ran for 29 more and accounted for four touchdowns, while Trey Benson scored once on the ground and once on an 80-yard catch-and-run, and the defense held Wake to just 210 yards of offense.

Utah had been a fun story through eight weeks, marching along despite playing without quarterback Cam Rising and instead building an offense around six guys they found hanging around outside the 7-Eleven. But the scrappy success came to a screeching halt Saturday when Bo Nix and Oregon shredded the Utes’ defense early and cruised to a 35-6 win.

Texas’ strong start to 2023 came after Quinn Ewers shed his mullet and scraggly beard that made him look like the base player for a mediocre ’90s cover band (Worse Than Better Than Ezra) in favor of a clean-cut look and some big throws. But Ewers was out for Saturday’s game against BYU thanks to a shoulder injury that could sideline him for the next month (and also allow him to continue work with his new Mumford & Sons cover band, Son of Mumford & Sons). Instead, Maalik Murphy took the reins of the offense and delivered two TD throws in a 35-6 win. More importantly, Oklahoma lost to Kansas, so Texas fans can spend the time between now and Ewers return pointing and laughing at the Sooners for a change.

Even Louisville, a playoff longshot, bounced back from a brutal loss to Pitt by annihilating a ranked Duke team behind a suffocating defense and 163 yards from tailback Jawhar Jordan.

If the goal was to showcase for the committee that they had an extra gear, that there was more left in the tank, that dominance, more than just winning, was the goal — Saturday was an emphatic statement for many.

For the Buckeyes and Huskies, on the other hand, Saturday showed a different sort of resolve.

What to make of Washington? Its 33-30 win over Oregon two weeks ago felt like a season-defining moment, but it also has come in the middle of a four-game stretch in which the Huskies have failed to win a game by double digits. Against Oregon, the close score made sense. Against Arizona, Arizona State and Stanford though? It’s a bit more confounding. Michael Penix Jr.‘s 369 yards and four touchdowns provided some needed relief after last week’s clunker against the Sun Devils, and Dillon Johnson‘s late TD finally put Stanford away Saturday, but to borrow a Seattle analogy, the overall effort was more “In Utero” than “Nevermind.”

Ohio State, meanwhile, continues to struggle for much offense beyond Marvin Harrison Jr., who caught six passes for 123 yards and two touchdowns. The Buckeyes finally found some success on the ground with a healthy TreVeyon Henderson, but it still wasn’t until late that Ohio State managed to pull away from Wisconsin, ultimately winning 24-10. Ohio State is 4-0 in games in which it’s scored 24 or less this year, which is an odd dynamic after the defense killed the team’s recent playoff hopes again and again in recent years.

So what’s the big takeaway here? Should Florida State or Georgia or Michigan (which spent its off-week in a nondescript white van parked in front of Ryan Day’s house) be the clear-cut favorites, atop the committee’s rankings and packing their bags for playoff games? Should Ohio State be punished for its lack of offense or rewarded for its resolve in the face of adversity? If a one-loss team is going to make a run, did Oregon or Texas put themselves in better position? (Actually, scratch that question. Texas beat Alabama, so according to committee bylaws, the Longhorns are definitely in.)

The first set of playoff rankings are always about splitting hairs, and this year, those hairs are as neatly gelled together as a Mike Gundy mullet.

Saturday offered some new perspectives, but it hardly delivered many clear answers.


Kansas rocks Oklahoma

There have been a few stunners already this season, games that went against script and upended playoff hopes for teams that, if we’re being honest, probably didn’t have much hope to begin with. (Sorry, North Carolina, but it’s true.) But Saturday delivered something more — an upset that truly rocked the blueprint for the 2023 season.

Oklahoma‘s road to the postseason was as wide open as I-40 west of Elk City after its Red River win against Texas. The lone true stumbling block remaining looked to be a potential rematch with the Longhorns in the Big 12 championship game. Surely, Week 9 wouldn’t be the moment the Sooners collapsed. Not against Kansas, a team that hadn’t beaten Oklahoma in so long John Steinbeck wrote bleakly about it in “The Grapes of Wrath.” (Probably. We never actually read that. “The Pearl” was only 118 pages, so that made for a much easier high school book report.)

And yet, here we are: Kansas 38, Oklahoma 33.

After Dillon Gabriel had shredded so many defenses this season, Kansas gave him next to nothing. He completed 14 of 19 passes, but the big plays were rare, he never found the end zone and his pick six in the first quarter set the tone for what was to come.

Jason Bean, in his sixth year of being the second-best quarterback on a roster, delivered a career-defining performance, even if it wasn’t always pretty. He completed less than half his throws, managed just 218 yards and tossed two picks. And yet his 37-yard completion to Lawrence Arnold on fourth-and-6 with less than a minute to play proved to be the game winner.

Oklahoma led 21-14, 27-26 and 33-32 — each small lead feeling like an inevitable nail in Kansas’ coffin. After all, this was the Jayhawks. They pull upsets against Texas that Oklahoma fans then use as ammunition for jokes for years to come. They don’t beat the Sooners.

And yet, here we are: Oklahoma is 7-1, and just three days before the first playoff rankings are released, its hopes for a national tile appear to be on life support.

Gabriel ran for three touchdowns. Tawee Walker ran for 146 yards. Kendel Dolby‘s tipped ball led to a late INT that was supposed to seal the game. And none of it was enough.

So Kansas is bowl-eligible for the second straight year. That’s its own story. What Lance Leipold has done in a place utterly devoid of hope is borderline astonishing. Fans celebrated accordingly by removing the goalpost — not because of the win, but because no structures taller than 12 feet are allowed within the state lines.

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Kansas fans tear down goalposts after upset over Oklahoma

Kansas fans rush the field after the final play and bring down the goalposts after their upset over Oklahoma.

But more important to the big picture of this season, the threat of true playoff chaos in the last year of the four-team format took a major blow. The Big 12 is now without an undefeated team. Oklahoma will be playing to an inside straight the rest of the way. And as October comes to a close, it feels like the season has really just gotten started.

It took a while, but 2023 finally got a real dose of chaos.


Allar leads Lions

James Franklin can gloat, at long last, that his quarterback actually can complete a deep ball.

For Penn State, one dismal disappointment against Ohio State last week threatened to bleed into Week 9, as Indiana jumped out to an early lead, then erased a late deficit, tying the game at 24 with less than three minutes to play. All the same misery from last week’s loss was on display for the Nittany Lions: too many big plays allowed, too few created. The ground game didn’t account for a single run longer than 12 yards, and Drew Allar entered the Lions’ final drive having thrown (we’re estimating) 30 straight checkdowns.

Allar’s last pass, however, was a dime, finding KeAndre Lambert-Smith down the sideline for a 57-yard touchdown. On Indiana’s next play, the Hoosiers remembered that they were actually the Hoosiers and took a 25-yard sack for a safety, securing Penn State’s 33-24 win.

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Penn State takes late lead with Drew Allar’s clutch 57-yard TD pass

KeAndre Lambert-Smith hauls in a 57-yard touchdown pass from Drew Allar to give Penn State a late lead.

Entering Saturday, Allar had attempted just 12 passes of 20 air yards or more — fewer than 142 other quarterbacks nationally. He’d completed just three of them. In last week’s loss to Ohio State, he was 0-for-4 on the deep ball. And before the heave to Lambert-Smith, Allar was averaging just 5.1 yards per pass.

But when it mattered, Allar showed he had it in him, delivering a dagger that keeps Penn State’s hopes for a Big Ten title — and perhaps a playoff berth — still flickering.

Next up for the Lions: a trip to Maryland, where Franklin will have the team bus stop at every third rest stop to make the 220-mile trip in just under 11 hours.


Clemson makes playoff case

On the field, Clemson lost to NC State 24-17 on Saturday, yet another frustrating example of the Tigers snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. It is Clemson’s seventh loss in its past 12 games vs. Power 5 opponents, and it effectively ensures that, for the first time since 2010, the Tigers won’t reach double-digit wins.

But does that mean Clemson shouldn’t be in the playoff conversation? Only a small-minded bandwagon jumper would be foolish enough to believe that.

Dabo Swinney has been pretty clear that the Tigers’ losses this year have all been flukes. Against Duke, Clemson had 200 yards passing and rushing, he noted. Clemson never loses those games. And two losses came in overtime, when Clemson gave away leads against Florida State and Miami — two teams with national championship pedigrees, we might add. And Saturday’s loss to the Wolfpack was a matter of some problematic turnovers, a little bug that’s plagued the Tigers all season, but really doesn’t say much about their overall ability (except for the ability to not give the ball away). Clemson actually had more yards than NC State, and if yards were points, well, Clemson would’ve had a good chance to come away with the win.

So, the point everyone needs to remember here is Clemson is just a few plays away from being undefeated, and are we really going to punish a team for a few bad plays? Do we suggest “Our American Cousin” was a bad play just because one really fluky thing happened during its performance at Ford’s Theater?

Clemson’s losses have all been close. When Nebraska went 0-8 in one-score games back in 2021, did anyone hold that against Scott Frost? Of course not! That would’ve been ridiculous.

So, let’s not focus on silly things like fluky plays or bad luck. Clemson is well in the running for Butch Jones’ famed championship of life, and we’re pretty sure that comes with an automatic bid to the playoff. Besides, it’s not like the Tigers lost to a basketball school.

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Dave Doeren hits back at Steve Smith’s ‘waiting for basketball’ jab

NC State coach Dave Doeren doesn’t hold back in responding to comments made by former Panthers WR Steve Smith on “College GameDay” about his team.


Trojans’ D survives Cal

Cal’s 2-point try with 58 seconds to play came up empty, and USC survived an upset bid 50-49. What’s less clear now is how long defensive coordinator Alex Grinch will survive, because most USC fans are ready to recommend a nice tarmac at LAX for a quick talk with team brass.

Caleb Williams threw for 369 yards and accounted for four touchdowns, but it was nearly not enough. Jaydn Ott, who ran for three touchdowns in the game, was banged up late in the third quarter and didn’t touch the ball again. With Ott out, Cal turned the ball over twice on fumbles and once on downs in the fourth quarter, allowing USC to turn a 43-29 deficit into a 50-43 lead in a collapse that would suggest Cal is fully engaged in ACC football already.

Still, Grinch’s woeful defense allowed the Bears to march down the field late, scoring on a nine-play, 79-yard drive inside the final minute. Cal opted to go for two because, honestly, no one wanted to see any more of this game, and Fernando Mendoza‘s heave into the end zone fell incomplete.

If it was a win for the Trojans, it sure felt like another nail in the coffin for their beleaguered defensive coordinator. Four of USC’s past five opponents have scored or matched a season high vs. Power 5 competition against the Trojans’ D, and the lone outlier is Colorado, which hung 41 on them.

Of course, rather than blame Grinch, it’s possible USC just has too many players from California, as Lincoln Riley noted earlier this week.

Riley later suggested L.A. didn’t have a good downtown, In-N-Out burgers weren’t as good as Shake Shack, and was ambivalent as to whether Reggie Bush should get his Heisman back.


The best 5-3 team in the country? That might be the Arizona Wildcats, who scored a massive win over No. 11 Oregon State, 27-24 on Saturday.

Freshman QB Noah Fifita has been exceptional since stepping into the starting job one month ago, throwing for 275 yards and three touchdowns in Saturday’s win. As Arizona’s starter, he has 11 TD passes and just three picks.

Arizona is in the middle of a five-game stretch against teams that were ranked at kickoff, but it has won its past two and posted 112 points in its past three, despite head coach Jedd Fisch spending the bulk of every game looking at his play card like it’s a set of IKEA instructions on how to build a bookshelf. Meanwhile, all three of Arizona’s losses have come by a touchdown, including overtime defeats at Mississippi State and USC.

For the Beavers, the loss is a blow to title hopes in the crowded Pac-12, which now has seven teams at 3-2 or better in conference play. However, in a nice bit of sportsmanship, QB DJ Uiagalelei honored his former team — Clemson — by completing just 15 of 29 throws.


Heisman Five

We’re going to start printing “Ollie 4 Heisman” T-shirts this week.

1. Ohio State WR Marvin Harrison Jr.

He caught six passes for 123 yards and two touchdowns in the win over Wisconsin and was blissfully referred to as “Marv the Magician” rather than “Maserati Marv” 63 times.

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Marvin Harrison Jr. gets another TD against Wisconsin

Marvin Harrison Jr. gets Ohio State back in the lead 17-10 with this 19-yard reception from Kyle McCord.

2. Oklahoma State RB Ollie Gordon II

Gordon ran for 271 yards and two touchdowns in a 45-13 win over Cincinnati Bearcats on Saturday, his fifth straight game with 120 or more on the ground and his second straight with 250 or more on the ground. Add in his 116 receiving yards three weeks ago against Kansas, and Gordon became only the second player in the last 20 years to post 250 scrimmage yards in three straight games (joining BC’s Andre Williams, per ESPN Stats & Information).

3. Florida State QB Jordan Travis

Travis had his best game of the season against Wake Forest, completing 22 of 35 passes for 359 yards and accounting for four total touchdowns. Then, after the game, Travis and Keon Coleman retreated to the Bat Cave, donned their superhero outfits, and spent the rest of the evening fighting crime.

4. Washington QB Michael Penix Jr.

After a brutal performance against Arizona State last week, Penix returned to form in Week 9, throwing for 369 yards and four touchdowns. Between Cal giving up 50 to USC and Stanford getting scorched by Penix, it was a rough week for ACC defenses.

5. Michigan QB J.J. McCarthy

The Wolverines were off Saturday, but a low-level staffer with CIA hacking experience was able to add six touchdowns and 800 yards to McCarthy’s total by accessing the NCAA’s mainframe via a high tech password cracking algorithm. It might seem a bit disreputable, but also the NCAA’s master password was actually just “password,” so it’s hard to be too mad at Michigan.


Smith keys Aggies’ win

There hasn’t been much to cheer about for Texas A&M this season, but Week 9 was something of a high-water mark for the Aggies, by which we mean no one fell asleep while Bobby Petrino was signaling in his third adjustment at the line of scrimmage.

Texas A&M toppled South Carolina 30-17, holding the Gamecocks to just 209 yards of offense, while Ainias Smith paced the Aggies with 118 yards on six catches, including a nifty 42-yard TD reception.

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Max Johnson throws 42-yard touchdown pass to Ainias Smith

Max Johnson throws 42-yard touchdown pass to Ainias Smith

Texas A&M is now just one win away from bowl eligibility, and given the injury to starting QB Conner Weigman earlier in the year, there’s a case for keeping Jimbo Fisher beyond the hefty buyout A&M would have to pay to fire him. On the other hand, since finishing No. 5 in the country during the COVID-impacted 2020 season, the Aggies are just 9-12 in SEC play and just four wins have come against other winning teams in the Power 5.

Of course, things could be worse. At South Carolina, the Gamecocks lost their fourth straight and head coach Shane Beamer responded to the defeat by karate chopping some stacks of lumber, driving his car into the side of a Hardee’s and tweaking his knee after trying to win a kickboxing match against a shark.


SMU wins big

The over/under for Saturday’s game between Tulsa and SMU was 55 at kickoff.

At halftime, SMU led 52-3.

It would’ve been hilarious to see a second-half shutout by both sides, of course, but there was no slowing the Mustangs’ offense. SMU finished off the 69-10 win with 638 total yards, including 446 through the air, and starting QB Preston Stone averaged a ridiculous 18.6 yards per throw. To put that in perspective, Penn State QB Drew Allar is legally required to report any throw of more than 15 yards on his taxes.

In the past three seasons, according to ESPN Sports & Information, only one team has scored at least 52 in a half. SMU has done it twice (including against Houston last year).

This embarrassment for Tulsa comes just a week after the school’s attempt to set the world record for largest beer tasting fell short by 163 people. On the upside, after what happened against SMU, most of the city of Tulsa will now be eagerly consuming the leftover beer.


Coaching insight of the week

Charlotte‘s Biff Poggi, sporting the newest from Pat McAfee’s athleisure line, summed up his team’s problems nicely ahead of the fourth quarter of the 49ers’ 38-16 loss to FAU.

So to sum up: When playing football, do block and tackle. Do not make sausage. Do wear pads. Do not wear sleeves. “Do your damn job.” Do not talk to anyone or even send funny GIFs on the text chain you’re on with your buddies from high school.

Afterward, Poggi returned to his full-time job serving as a lifeguard at the YMCA at the local seniors center and, honestly, if Mable doesn’t stay off the diving board, he’s just going to absolutely lose it.


Under-the-radar play of the week

It’s hard to pick just one key moment from Georgia Tech ‘s 46-42 win over North Carolina on Saturday because there were so many.

The Jackets ran for 348 yards against UNC, their most in a game since 2020.

There was Haynes King‘s four touchdown passes, which might officially make him the most successful Jimbo Fisher QB recruit in the past decade. (Seriously, look it up.)

There was the visit from former coach Paul Johnson, who might or might not have borrowed his pants from a guy he met on the MARTA on the way to the game.

But if we can only pick one, the honor goes to Ahmari Harvey for delivering this textbook hit on Tez Walker, as UNC was driving to take a late lead.

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Tez Walker shaken up after GT forces a crucial fumble

Tez Walker catches Drake Maye’s pass but is blindsided on the run, conceding the fumble and staying down for several minutes before walking off the field.

K.J. Wallace recovered, Georgia Tech ran out the clock, and the Yellow Jackets scored yet another shocking upset win.

Under Brent Key, Georgia Tech is now 4-0 against ranked ACC teams and 3-5 against unranked ACC teams. The ACC Coastal may be dead, but its legacy remains.


Under-the-radar game of the week

There’s just one FBS team still in search of its first win on the season, and Sam Houston State has endured some misery along the way, capped Wednesday by a UTEP field goal with just three seconds left on the clock, giving the Miners a 37-34 win and sending the Bearkats to their seventh loss in seven tries since moving up from FCS.

A quick rundown of Sam Houston’s defeats:

On Wednesday, it led 27-20 entering the fourth quarter, blew that lead, scored with 6:02 to go to tie it at 34, shanked a punt, immediately coughed up a 37-yard completion, then lost on a kick by a man named Buzz Flabiano, which is definitely not the pseudonym Tom Cruise uses when checking into hotels.

A week earlier, FIU booted a field goal with five seconds left to send the game to overtime, where Sam Houston lost in 2OT.

Two weeks before that, Sam Houston had undefeated Liberty on the ropes. The Bearkats trailed 21-16 with 3:36 to play, engineered a 15-play, 96-yard drive that stalled at the Flames’ 3-yard line with an incomplete pass on fourth-and-goal.

A week before that, Sam Houston took an eight-point lead with 1:11 to go, but allowed a 28-yard TD pass and 2-point conversion with 13 seconds left to play against fellow first-year FBS program Jacksonville State, sending the game to overtime, where again, the Bearkats lost.


Week 9 ICYMI

Iowa State is 4-1 in Big 12 play and has a real shot at the league’s title game after toppling Baylor 30-18 on Saturday. After an ugly 10-7 loss to Ohio in September, the Cyclones have won four of five. With a win over Oklahoma State and games remaining against both Texas and Kansas State, the Cyclones control their own destiny in conference.

Nebraska thumped Purdue 31-14 behind two touchdown passes from Heinrich Haarberg, and now needs just one win in its last four games to make a bowl.

It might be time to think about taking the interim tag off David Braun’s title at Northwestern. The Wildcats beat Maryland 33-27 Saturday to move to 4-4 on the season, matching their win total from the prior two seasons combined. QB Brendan Sullivan accounted for more than 300 yards and two touchdowns, and Northwestern hit 31 points for the third time in its last seven games — something it had done just twice in the prior 33.

UMass beat Army 21-14, giving the Minutemen their first multiwin season since 2018.

Colorado State‘s passing game accounted for 297 yards by its QBs and minus-15 yards by its fans.

The Rams went to the half tied with Air Force, but the Falcons pulled away down the stretch to remain undefeated.

UCLA knocked off Colorado 28-16, sacking Shedeur Sanders seven times and hitting him six more in the process. As a result, Deion Sanders has added Chip Kelly to his “enemies list” and will exact his revenge.

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Back in NHL, Hart debuts for Vegas after acquittal

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Back in NHL, Hart debuts for Vegas after acquittal

LAS VEGAS — Goalie Carter Hart, one of five 2018 Canada world junior hockey players acquitted of sexual assault in July, made his first NHL appearance in nearly two years Tuesday night and received an enthusiastic reaction from Golden Knights fans during pregame introductions.

Hart certainly received the loudest response before Vegas’ home game against Chicago, and if there were any boos, they were difficult to hear.

Some fans also held signs supportive of Hart.

Hart was the first of those five players to agree to an NHL contract. The league ruled those players were eligible to sign deals beginning Oct. 15 and to play starting Dec. 1. Hart signed a two-year, $4 million contract and has been working with the club’s American Hockey League affiliate in Henderson, Nevada.

After he agreed to sign, Hart read a statement to reporters that, in part, said he wanted “to show the community my true character and who I am and what I’m about.”

Hart was asked Monday what steps he has taken to fulfill that pledge.

“There’s been a few things we’ve talked about,” Hart said. “We did a thing there in Henderson helping out the homeless. There’s some things we’ve talked about throughout the season. Whatever I can do to help, I’m happy to help.”

Giving Hart his first start at home could help ease him into what could be a rocky reception around the league. After facing the Blackhawks, Vegas goes on a five-game trip against Eastern Conference teams, including a Dec. 11 stop at Hart’s former Philadelphia team.

He worked in Henderson on getting back into NHL game shape. Hart appeared in three games and went 1-2.

“I’ve worked my [butt] off to get back to this point,” Hart said. “For me, the key is preparation and I’ve done everything I can to be prepared.”

It was a tough start against the Blackhawks. Less than a minute after the Golden Knights scored, Chicago’s Oliver Moore found the back of the net against Hart on the Blackhawks’ second shot on goal.

He gave up a second-period goal when he left the crease to clear the puck. His pass instead went directly to Tyler Bertuzzi, who scored over Hart and defenseman Noah Hanifin.

But Hart made 15 saves through the first two periods and the score was 2-2 entering intermission.

The 27-year-old last played in an NHL game Jan. 20, 2024, for Philadelphia. Hart played six seasons for the Flyers, going 96-93-29 with a .906 save percentage and 2.94 goals-against average.

“The purpose of Henderson was to get him back into live reps,” Golden Knights coach Bruce Cassidy said. “He can practice with us with NHL shooters, but traffic around the net, screens, all that stuff is sometimes hard to replicate, especially when you haven’t played that often. We’re less worried about the results, more getting reps, getting used to that stuff.”

The Golden Knights could use the help in net, especially with starting goalie Adin Hill on injured reserve because of a lower-body injury and his return possibly weeks away. Akira Schmid has received the majority of the work with Hill out and is 9-2-4 with a .896 save percentage and 2.51 GAA.

Vegas had lost four straight games before defeating San Jose 4-3 on Saturday night.

Cassidy said the upcoming schedule works in the Golden Knights’ favor in terms of not overloading the goalies.

“Akira’s played well, too, so we have to keep mindful he has to stay sharp,” Cassidy said. “So I’m sure you’ll see a lot of both goalies, but Carter’s waited a long time to play, so he’s definitely going to get his share of starts.”

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Week 15 Anger Index: The case for Texas and monthlong gripes for Miami, BYU

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Week 15 Anger Index: The case for Texas and monthlong gripes for Miami, BYU

The first College Football Playoff rankings came out five weeks ago. They looked a lot like tonight’s rankings.

We’ve had precious little movement at the top, with a few teams jockeying up or down a slot, but effectively no seismic shifts in the landscape. BYU and Texas are the only two teams that were projected in the field in the committee’s first ranking that aren’t now — and they’re just barely on the outside with reasonable arguments for inclusion.

Teams ranked in the top 18 by the committee this year are a combined 55-9, with six of those losses coming to other teams ranked in the top 18. All three outliers are courtesy of — you guessed it — the ACC (Louisville to Cal, Virginia to Wake and Georgia Tech to Pitt).

That’s a massive anomaly. Last year, top-18 teams at this point had lost 19 games, including 14 to teams outside their own grouping. Top-10 teams are 33-4 this year. In the first 11 years of the playoff, top-10 teams had lost an average of nine games by this point in the season.

The two words that best describe this year’s playoff push are “status quo.”

That, of course, has been bad news for all the teams on the outside looking in — from those with valid cases such as Miami, BYU and Vanderbilt, to underdogs such as USC, Utah or Arizona that might’ve had a shot in a more chaotic year.

But the real loser in this copy and paste rankings season is all the fans who just want to see things get weird. It’s a sad state of affairs when we’re left to rely on MACtion and the ACC to do all the heavy lifting when it comes to college football drama. The power players need to step up — or, perhaps, ratchet down — their game to add a bit more drama.

The good news is, the committee’s ad hoc reasoning, mushmouthed explanations and mind-boggling about-faces still leave plenty to argue about, even if the big picture hasn’t changed all that much.

Here’s this week’s biggest slights, snubs and shenanigans.

It’s not entirely clear how this committee values wins. For the past month, the priority has certainly appeared to be about which team has the better losses (unless, of course, you’re Alabama).

That seems a foolish way to prioritize playoff teams, since the goal of the playoff isn’t to lose to good teams but to win games.

Does Texas have a bad loss? Yes. A 29-21 defeat to woeful Florida — even if the Gators also played Georgia and Ole Miss close and just walloped a team that beat Alabama head-to-head — is problematic.

But look who Texas has beaten: No. 7 Texas A&M by 10, No. 8 Oklahoma by 17 and No. 14 Vandy by three (in a game they led by 24 in the fourth quarter). That’s the résumé of a team capable of winning a national championship — even if the Horns were also capable of losing to a second-rate SEC team.

Are we trying to find teams with the most upside or give participation trophies to the ones which have not lost an ugly one? (Except, again, Alabama.)

And it’s not as if the committee believes an extra loss is disqualifying. Oklahoma, Alabama, Notre Dame and Miami all have two losses and are ranked ahead of one-loss BYU (more on that in a moment), so what’s the harm of moving a three-loss Texas ahead of a two-loss team that has accomplished less?

This all comes back to the most frequent and justified criticism of the committee: The same rules aren’t applied evenly. In some cases, record matters. In some cases, best wins matter. In some cases, better losses matter. The standard varies based on the team being considered. But if the committee is going to err in favor of any team, it should probably do so for one that’s proved — not once, not twice, but three times — that it can beat an elite opponent.

Oh, and moving Texas up ahead of, say, Notre Dame would also have the added bonus of allowing the committee to sidestep another tricky situation. Which leads us to…


We’re putting these two teams together because we’ve already lamented the committee’s utterly disingenuous evaluation of them repeatedly, so it feels redundant to keep going down the same rabbit hole. But, for the sake of two programs being astonishingly misevaluated, let’s do one more round.

For Miami, the logic is obvious: The Canes beat Notre Dame head-to-head.

But let’s keep going. Miami’s two losses — SMU and Louisville — would rank as the fourth- and fifth-toughest games on Notre Dame’s schedule, had the Irish played them. Instead, Notre Dame has cruised through an essentially listless slate. Six of Notre Dame’s 10 wins came against teams that beat zero or one other Power 4 opponent. Stanford — seriously, Stanford! — is Notre Dame’s fourth-best win (by record). Yes, Notre Dame played well enough in losses to two very good teams, but one of those teams has the same record and is somehow ranked lower! Even if this is strictly about the “eye test,” there’s little argument for ignoring the head-to-head outcome. Notre Dame’s strength of record is 13th. Miami’s is 14th. Notre Dame’s game control is fifth. Miami’s is sixth. If all else is the same, how is head-to-head not the deciding factor?

Yet, here’s a little more salt in the wound for the Canes: Had Florida State finished 6-2 instead of 2-6 in ACC play, Miami would’ve won the (fifth) tiebreaker for a spot in the ACC title game and could’ve locked up its place in the playoff by simply beating Virginia. Instead, the Canes will sit at home and watch and hope and, at this point, probably get left out. Chess, not checkers, by rival FSU.

As for BYU, the committee’s desire to overlook the Cougars makes no sense. Let’s take a look at a blind résumé, shall we? (Note: Best wins and composite top 40 based on an average of SP+, FPI and Sagarin ratings.)

Team A: No. 6 strength of record, No. 14 game control, best win vs. No. 11, next vs. No. 28, loss to No. 5, four wins vs. composite top 40, five wins vs. teams that finished 7-5 or better

Team B: No. 7 strength of record, No. 10 game control, best win vs. No. 13, next vs. No. 27, loss to No. 7, three wins vs. composite top-40, two wins vs. teams that finished 7-5 or better

Now, just based on that information, Team A would seem the obvious choice. Now what if I told you Team B just lost its head coach, too?

That’s right, Team A is BYU and Team B is Ole Miss. Every bit of data here suggests the Cougars are, at worst, on even footing with the Rebels or ahead, and yet the committee has Ole Miss ranked five spots higher.

This is, arguably, the second year in a row in which BYU was clearly the most overlooked team in the country.


A week ago, Notre Dame was ranked one spot ahead of Alabama.

Then on Saturday, the Irish beat 4-8 Stanford by 29 (in a game they at one point led 42-3), while Alabama beat 5-7 Auburn by seven (in a game the Tigers had a chance to tie before fumbling in Tide territory late).

The committee looked at those two results and said, “You know what, we like what we saw from the Tide! Move ’em up!”

What could possibly be the logic for shifting opinions on these two teams? The only other team that jumped another winning team was Texas, and the Longhorns beat the No. 3 team in the country emphatically, not a second-tier team that fired its head coach a month ago.

Oh, and hasn’t the committee made it pretty clear losses are supposed to matter? Well, Notre Dame has two losses to teams ranked in the top 12. Alabama got beat by a Florida State team that finished 5-7.

Even by the eye test, this makes little sense. Notre Dame has proved to be one of the most complete, dominant teams in the country, with a secondary that’s near impossible to throw on, a rookie quarterback who has been nearly flawless and a running back who might well be the best player in the country. Alabama, on the other hand, has a one-note offense that can’t run the football.

We’re not believers in using advanced metrics as a ranking of accomplishment, but if this is simply a “who’s better” debate…

  • SP+ ranks Notre Dame fifth and Alabama 12th.

  • FPI ranks Notre Dame third and Alabama sixth.

  • Sagarin ranks Notre Dame second and Alabama seventh.

  • FEI ranks Notre Dame fourth and Alabama ninth.

So, again, we ask: Why would the committee possibly make this change?

We’d wager you know the answer. That sticky Canes vs. Irish head-to-head debate is a real headache for the committee. But if Notre Dame’s currently the last team in and something unexpected happens this weekend (hello, BYU over Texas Tech), then the committee can do as it did in 2014 and wash its hands of a tough choice and keep both Notre Dame and Miami out.

(It’s also interesting that a seven-point win over a team with a losing record is enough to jump Notre Dame, but a 31-point win over a ranked Pitt did nothing for Miami’s relative placement with the Irish despite — and we’re not sure anyone has mentioned this yet — a head-to-head win!)

But, speaking of Alabama…


4. Championship game participants

Step into the time machine with us for a moment, all the way back to championship week 2024. Here’s the state of play: Alabama, at 9-3, is ranked No. 11, the first team out of the playoff and also out of the SEC title game. Still, the Tide and the SEC hope there’s a pathway to salvation because SMU — 11-1 and ranked eighth — still has a game to play against Clemson in the ACC championship. If the Mustangs were to lose, couldn’t the committee then justify slotting SMU behind Alabama based on another data point, even though the Tide were simply sitting at home watching the action?

This was the case being made throughout the run up to the ACC championship last season. SMU, which should’ve been celebrating a miraculously successful first season in the Power 4, spent hours upon hours defending itself against criticism that it didn’t belong in the same conversation with big, bad Bama. Rhett Lashlee hinted he thought the committee’s vote was rigged, SMU players lamented their status on the chopping block despite a ranking that should’ve put them safely in the playoff field, and SEC commissioner Greg Sankey made the rounds arguing that Alabama’s (and Ole Miss’ and South Carolina’s) strength of schedule ought to put them ahead of SMU (and others).

OK, back to the present day. Here we are with Alabama sitting perilously on the dividing line between in the field and out — a week ago, it would have been the last team in, but of course the committee had other ideas this time around — with a game to play against Georgia in the SEC championship. An ACC team (Miami) sits just a tick behind the Tide in the rankings, but it will be off this week.

So, what happens if Alabama loses?

The comparison to last year’s SMU isn’t even a particularly fair one. The Mustangs were at No. 8 before the ACC title game. Alabama is at No. 9 (and probably should be a spot or two lower). SMU’s game against Clemson was new territory. A loss to Georgia will actually undermine Alabama’s best argument for inclusion — the three-point win in Athens in September. And while SMU did make the playoff field last year, a last-second loss on a 56-yard field goal still dropped the Mustangs from No. 8 to No. 10 in the rankings.

Play this scenario out now: Alabama, ranked at No. 9, plays a team that currently counts as the Tide’s best win. Imagine if Georgia wins the rematch and does so convincingly. The committee docked SMU two spots for a last-second loss, so surely it will do at least that much to Alabama for a more convincing defeat, right? And here’s the other thing: Even with the ACC title game loss last year, SMU was 11-2 — one less loss than Alabama had. A Tide loss in the SEC title game will be defeat No. 3 — one more than Notre Dame or Miami or (presumably) BYU.

It’s hard not to see a conspiracy here given the committee’s inexplicable flip-flop between Alabama and Notre Dame. It’s hard not to see brand bias in how the Tide’s championship week narrative diverges from SMU’s a year ago. It’s not at all hard to envision a scenario where Alabama loses to Georgia, gets in as the last team anyway, and it’s all explained away as a completely reasonable decision.


Well, the committee finally weighed in on more than one team outside the Power 4 — mostly because it was just impossible to find enough Power 4 teams worth ranking — and the news isn’t good for JMU. With the committee deciding already that North Texas is the higher ranked team, the Dukes’ only hope for the playoff would seem to be a Duke win in the ACC title game.

But what exactly has the committee seen to warrant that decision? Check out the numbers.

Best win (by average FPI, SP+ and Sagarin ranking)
JMU: No. 54 Old Dominion
UNT: No. 62 Washington State

Next best
JMU: No. 62 Washington State
UNT: No. 68 Navy

Loss
JMU: No. 29 Louisville
UNT: No. 24 USF

Wins vs. bowl-eligible
JMU: six
UNT: five

Strength of record
JMU: 18th
UNT: 22nd

FPI
JMU: 28th
UNT: 37th

There are certainly some check marks in North Texas’ favor, including a more impressive win over common opponent Washington State and a slightly better SP+ ranking, but on the whole, James Madison has had the tougher path here. That can change should UNT beat Tulane, but the committee should’ve waited for that to happen. Instead, it has made it clear JMU isn’t sniffing the playoff unless it comes at the expense of the ACC.

Also angry this week: Vanderbilt Commodores (10-2, No. 14); The ACC leadership who voted on its tiebreaker policies; Manny Diaz, who has to try to make a coherent argument for his five-loss Duke Blue Devils getting in ahead of a one-loss JMU; Every 8-4 team with a markedly better résumé than 9-3 Houston, which isn’t ranked this week; and Lane Kiffin’s yoga instructor and Juice Kiffin’s dog walker.

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CFP Bubble Watch: Could the ACC get left out?

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CFP Bubble Watch: Could the ACC get left out?

Welcome to the party, James Madison.

With the inclusion of JMU at No. 25 in the selection committee’s penultimate ranking — its first appearance all season — the possibility of the ACC being excluded from the playoff entirely just got real. Five-loss Duke is nowhere to be found in the ranking.

If Duke beats Virginia in the ACC championship game, it’s not guaranteed a spot in the 12-team field. It could open the door for two Group of 5 conference champions to compete for a national title, and if the playoff were today, it would be Tulane out of the American and JMU from the Sun Belt. The ACC’s best team, Miami, is still on the outside.

At No. 12, the Hurricanes still need some help, but Alabama increased its chances of earning a spot as the SEC runner-up with a small promotion to No. 9. The conference championship games can still alter the picture, but hope on the bubble is dwindling.

Bubble Watch accounts for what we have learned from the committee so far — and historical knowledge of what it means for teams clinging to hope. Teams with Would be in status below are looking good after the committee’s fifth ranking. For each Power 4 conference, we’ve also listed Still in the mix. Teams that are Out will have to wait until next year.

The conferences below are listed in order of the number of bids they would receive, ranked from the most to least, based on the selection committee’s latest ranking.

Jump to a conference:
ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten
SEC | Independent | Group of 5
Bracket

SEC

Would be in: Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Texas A&M. Right now, the Crimson Tide are the last SEC at-large team in the field. Alabama will face Georgia in the SEC championship game, but the committee could have a difficult decision if Alabama loses and finishes as a three-loss runner-up. The Tide would have defeated Georgia during the regular season but lost to the Bulldogs in the championship game. Even in moving up a spot to No. 9 this week — ahead of Notre Dame — it still seems as if they have a little more margin for error, but how the SEC title game unfolds could matter. And how far Alabama drops could determine if the SEC gets four or five teams in the field. Alabama could finish as the committee’s highest-ranked three-loss team and still be excluded from the playoff to make room for a conference champion — as they were last year.

A Georgia win should lock up a first-round bye and a top-four finish for the Bulldogs, while a loss should still put them in position to host a first-round game. Georgia beat Ole Miss, so it would be surprising to see the Bulldogs drop below the Rebels with a loss, even though the Bulldogs would have one more defeat. With a 35-10 drubbing of Texas also on its résumé, Georgia would still have a strong enough case to finish as the committee’s top two-loss team.

At No. 6, the selection committee moved the Rebels up one spot, so clearly the departure of coach Lane Kiffin to LSU didn’t hurt Ole Miss or its chances of hosting a first-round home game. The bigger reasoning was a promotion after winning the Egg Bowl combined with Texas A&M losing to Texas.

Still in the mix: Texas. The Longhorns moved up to No. 13, but the win against Texas A&M wasn’t enough to put them into the field after the fifth ranking. Texas is stuck behind Miami in part because of its loss to Florida, which Miami beat. Even if BYU and Alabama were knocked out with title game losses, that still probably won’t be enough for Texas to get into the field because the bracket has to make room for conference champions.

Out: Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, Missouri, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt


Big Ten

Would be in: Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon. Both Indiana and Ohio State are CFP locks — even if they lose in the conference title game — and the runner-up will still have a strong case for a top-four finish and a first-round bye. The loser’s only loss will be to a top-two team, but it could fall behind Georgia in the top four if the Bulldogs win the SEC, and/or Texas Tech if it wins the Big 12.

The Ducks punctuated their résumé with a respectable win at Washington and should be secure in their playoff position, probably hosting a first-round game. Oregon received a small boost to No. 5 after Texas A&M lost to Texas.

Still in the mix: None.

Out: Illinois, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, USC, Washington, Wisconsin


Big 12

Would be in: Texas Tech. The Red Raiders will play BYU in the Big 12 title game and have a great case to be in the playoff regardless of the outcome. It’s highly unlikely the selection committee would drop the Red Raiders out of the field as a two-loss Big 12 runner-up — especially considering they would have a regular-season win against the eventual conference champion. It’s also possible Texas Tech earns a first-round bye as a top-four seed if the Red Raiders win the Big 12. The committee moved them into the top four Tuesday night following Texas A&M’s loss during Rivalry Week.

Still in the mix: BYU. If BYU doesn’t win the Big 12, it’s unlikely to earn an at-large bid as the conference runner-up because the Cougars are already on the bubble and would be eliminated during the seeding process if the playoff were today. It’s not impossible, though. If Alabama finishes as a three-loss SEC runner-up, it could at least open the door for debate. BYU would have lost to Texas Tech twice, and Alabama would have defeated Georgia, the eventual SEC champ once — and it was on the road. If BYU wins the Big 12, it’s the ideal scenario for the conference because it would have two teams in the playoff.

Out: Arizona, Arizona State, Baylor, Cincinnati, Colorado, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, TCU, UCF, Utah, West Virginia


ACC

Would be in: TBD. The ACC championship game will feature Virginia and Duke, and if five-loss Duke wins, it’s possible the ACC is excluded from the playoff since Duke is not part of the CFP rankings. If Virginia wins, it will represent the league in the playoff, as the two-loss Cavaliers are ranked in the top 20. And no, Miami did not play Duke or Virginia during the regular season. Duke lost to Tulane, which is the top Group of 5 playoff contender and will reach the playoff if it wins the American. Duke also lost to UConn. And it has already lost to Virginia 34-17 on Nov. 15.

Still in the mix: Miami. The Canes are still the committee’s highest-ranked ACC team, but they would be excluded if the playoff were today to make room for a conference champion. That means the ACC winner could knock the league’s best team out of the playoff. The committee isn’t ignoring Miami’s head-to-head win against Notre Dame, but it also isn’t comparing the Canes only to the Irish. Miami also needs to earn an edge against BYU — which the committee has deemed better than Miami to this point. Miami inched closer to Notre Dame because Bama moved up Tuesday, but with neither team playing in a conference championship game, would the committee flip them on Selection Day with a BYU loss?

Out: Boston College, Cal, Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Louisville, North Carolina, NC State, Pitt, SMU, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest


Independent

Would be in: Notre Dame. The Irish have done everything right since their 0-2 start, running the table and doing it with consistent dominance regardless of opponent. At No.10, Notre Dame is in a precarious position. If BYU wins the Big 12 and enters the field, that could bump out the Irish. If BYU wins the Big 12, both BYU and Texas Tech are highly likely to make the playoff, which means someone currently in the top 10 would have to be excluded.


Group of 5

Would be in: Tulane. If the Green Wave win the American, they will represent the Group of 5 in the playoff. Tulane is currently the highest ranked Group of 5 team, but if North Texas beats Tulane on Friday, the Mean Green would be the most likely team to reach the CFP, given the overall strength of the American Conference this season.

Still in the mix: James Madison, North Texas. JMU (11-1) has clinched the East Division and a spot in the Sun Belt Conference championship game, where it will face Troy (8-4) on Friday. North Texas will face Tulane in the American, and if it wins, it’s more likely to represent the Group of 5 in the playoff than JMU because of its schedule strength. JMU could still be considered, though, if Duke wins the ACC, giving the Group of 5 two playoff teams in the 12-team field. With JMU earning a spot in the top 25 this week, the situation became more probable.

Bracket

Based on the committee’s fifth ranking, the seeding would be:

First-round byes

No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Indiana
No. 3 Georgia (SEC champ)
No. 4 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ)

First-round games

On campus, Dec. 19 and 20

No. 12 Tulane (American champ) at No. 5 Oregon
No. 11 Virginia (ACC champ) at No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 Notre Dame at No. 7 Texas A&M
No. 9 Alabama at No. 8 Oklahoma

Quarterfinal games

At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.

No. 12 Tulane/No. 5 Oregon winner vs. No. 4 Texas Tech
No. 11 Virginia/No. 6 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 3 Georgia
No. 10 Notre Dame/No. 7 Texas A&M winner vs. No. 2 Indiana
No. 9 Alabama/No. 8 Oklahoma winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State

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