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The US economy’s strength and continued tight labor markets could warrant further Federal Reserve interest rate increases, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said on Thursday in remarks that appeared to push back against market expectations that the central bank’s rate hikes had reached an end.

“We are attentive to recent data showing the resilience of economic growth and demand for labor. Additional evidence of persistently above-trend growth, or that tightness in the labor market is no longer easing, could put further progress on inflation at risk and could warrant further tightening of monetary policy,” Powell said in remarks to the Economic Club of New York.

For inflation to durably return to the Fed’s 2% target, it “is likely to require a period of below-trend growth and some further softening in labor market conditions,” Powell said.

Since the Fed began raising interest rates in March of 2022 the unemployment rate has varied little from the current 3.8%, below the level most Fed officials feel is noninflationary, and overall economic growth has generally remained above the 1.8% annual growth rate Fed officials see as the economy’s underlying potential.

The Fed is “proceeding carefully” in evaluating the need for any further rate increases, Powell said, likely leaving intact current expectations that the Fed will leave its benchmark policy rate steady at the current 5.25% to 5.5% range at the upcoming Oct. 31-Nov. 1 meeting.

There is evidence the labor market is cooling, Powell said, with some important measures approaching levels seen even before the pandemic.

Powell also noted a number of fresh “uncertainties and risks” that need to be accounted for as the Fed tries to balance the threat of allowing inflation to rekindle against the threat of leaning on the economy more than is necessary.

Those include new geopolitical risks to the economy from the “horrifying” attack on Israel by the Palestinian militant Hamas group, Powell said.

“Our institutional role at the Federal Reserve is to monitor these developments for their economic implications, which remain highly uncertain,” Powell said. “Speaking for myself, I found the attack on Israel horrifying, as is the prospect for more loss of innocent lives.”

He also noted recent market-driven increases in bond yields that have helped to “significantly” tighten overall financial conditions.

“Persistent changes in financial conditions can have implications for the path of monetary policy,” Powell said, with higher market-based interest rates, if sustained, doing the same job as Fed rate increases.

But the Fed chair also voiced what has become a lingering theme at the central bank: That despite steady progress on lowering inflation, the battle isn’t over, with further rate increases still a possibility and the duration of tight monetary conditions still to be determined.

“Inflation is still too high, and a few months of good data are only the beginning of what it will take to build confidence that inflation is moving down sustainably toward our goal,” Powell said, citing the progress made since inflation peaked last year but also noting that one of the Fed’s main measures of inflation remained at 3.7% through September, nearly twice the central bank’s target.

“We cannot yet know how long these lower readings will persist, or where inflation will settle over coming quarters,” Powell said. “The path is likely to be bumpy and take some time…My colleagues and I are united in our commitment to bringing inflation down sustainably to 2%.”

The weeks since the Fed’s September meeting have been unusually turbulent, with worries about regional war in the Middle East rising and bond markets driving market interest rates higher, tightening the financial conditions faced by businesses and households somewhat independent of the Fed.

Data since the Fed’s last meeting also has shown US job growth reaccelerating unexpectedly, retail sales defying predictions of a slowdown and varying measures of prices offering inconsistent signals about whether inflation is on track to return to the Fed’s 2% target in a timely manner.

Powell’s appearance comes less than 48 hours before the beginning of the traditional quiet period ahead of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee’s meeting on Oct. 31-Nov. 1. While a handful of other Fed officials have appearances later on Thursday and Friday before blackout begins on Saturday, it is Powell’s remarks that will set the tone for policy expectations heading into that meeting.

Should they leave rates unchanged in two weeks as is now widely expected, it would mark the first back-to-back meetings with no rate increase since the Fed kicked off its hiking campaign in March 2022.

A Reuters poll of more than 100 economists published on Wednesday showed more than 80% expect no rate hike at the next meeting, and most also believe the Fed is done with rate hikes even though a majority of policymakers at their September meeting projected one more quarter-point increase was likely to be needed by year end.

Many in the poll offered the caveat that if progress on inflation stalls out or reverses, the Fed would not hesitate to resume raising rates.

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Brewers celebrate division title, feel like underdogs

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Brewers celebrate division title, feel like underdogs

ST. LOUIS — As celebratory prosecco and beer poured down his face, Christian Yelich soaked in the satisfaction of the Milwaukee Brewers‘ third straight NL Central Division title.

“This is the why,” Yelich said Sunday after the Brewers clinched, courtesy of the Cubs1-0 loss in Cincinnati. “This is why everything’s harped on throughout the year. Why we pay attention to detail, why there’s tough love throughout the season, why you keep grinding and why you keep trying to get better is for these moments — the fact that you can celebrate with your teammates.”

Carrying the best record in baseball, the Brewers won their fourth division title in the past five seasons and yet feel like the underdogs as the playoffs loom.

“In baseball, any team could beat anybody, especially in short series. Obviously, we’re not going to be favored. Everyone’s going to kind of point to our question marks and how there’s other teams that have more experienced players and, on paper, super talented rosters,” Yelich said. “But I think that gives our team a freedom. Nobody thinks that you’re going to be able to do this. So go out there and just play.”

Milwaukee lost Willy Adames to free agency and traded away closer Devin Williams in the offseason, and it was unclear what contributions veterans Brandon Woodruff (shoulder surgery) and Yelich (back) would be able to provide.

Both were able to be key players, although Woodruff’s status for the postseason is in question after he went on the injured list Sunday with what the team described as a moderate lat strain.

“Are we the most talented? No. Are we going to go up against teams far more talented with four times the payroll? Sure, but it doesn’t bother this team,” manager Pat Murphy said.

Since 2018, the Brewers have lost in the wild-card round four times, in the division series once and in the NL Championship Series once. The franchise’s only pennant came in 1982.

“I heard somebody say we’ve got the regular season figured out, now we’ve got to figure out the playoffs. That’s one of the most absurd comments I’ve ever heard,” Murphy said, emphasizing his squad’s body of work.

After losing 5-1 to St. Louis, the Brewers had to wait less than a half hour before the Cubs’ game ended. The team put on navy blue “division champs” shirts, sprayed bottles of chilled prosecco and dumped cans of beer on each other’s heads.

A blue flag with late announcer Bob Uecker’s signature hung in the soaked visitors locker room.

Owner Mark Attanasio suggested there was some “Brewer magic or Uecker magic” in this team.

“It’s really just the culture. We show up every spring training with the goal of winning the division,” said Sal Frelick, in his third year with Milwaukee. “So, it’s been great. I’m fortunate to be able to do it every year.”

The Brewers gathered on the Busch Stadium infield for a team photo and were about to disperse when Murphy came up the stairs from the dugout, almost left out of the moment.

“When we started the year, nobody thought we’d be here at this point. Obviously, we’ve had our share of injuries. Nobody could have imagined we’d be in this spot right now,” Woodruff said.

The Brewers were at their best during a 29-4 stretch in July and August, turning a four-game deficit into a commanding nine-game advantage in the division.

“We’ve done a heck of a job as a group to get to this point,” Woodruff said. “And you know what? There’s still a lot of baseball left for the Brewers.”

Last year, they won the Central by 10 games before dropping the wild-card series to the Mets — losing the decisive Game 3 after Williams squandered a two-run lead in the ninth inning. Pete Alonso‘s three-run home run was the key.

To Murphy, who took over as Milwaukee’s skipper before this past season, that’s the fickle nature of the playoffs.

“It takes a lot of things to go your way, and sometimes having great talent helps that,” Murphy said. “I don’t worry about this team, and I don’t worry about what anybody says about this team. I get to live it every day and see how special they are.”

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First AL ticket punched as Jays earn playoff spot

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First AL ticket punched as Jays earn playoff spot

KANSAS CITY, Mo. — The Toronto Blue Jays became the first American League team to secure a spot in the postseason on Sunday with an 8-5 victory against the Kansas City Royals.

The AL-best and AL East-leading Blue Jays locked up a playoff spot with a week remaining in the regular season after a less-than-stellar start of 16-20 in early May and trailing by as many as eight games in the division in late May.

“I remember back when we were in Tampa in May, we weren’t playing very well and we got swept there,” Blue Jays manager John Schneider said. “I think these guys did a great job of rallying around each other, but the turning point was really when we came out of Tampa and went into the Texas series.”

This is Toronto’s third playoff berth in four years and fourth in six seasons. They missed the postseason in 2021 and 2024. Playoff success has been elusive for the Blue Jays, who haven’t won a postseason game since 2016. And, unlike the past three trips, they hope this year they won’t have to play in the AL wild-card round as they try to win their first division title since 2015 as they close out the regular season with a six-game homestand against Boston and Tampa Bay.

“You could feel it with this group in spring training,” Schneider said. “I know that sounds really cliché, but when you get a group of men that are committed to the same goal, you can do things like this.”

The Blue Jays’ 90-66 record is tops in the AL and they lead their division by 2½ games over the New York Yankees. If Toronto wins the AL East and has one of the two best records in the league, it will advance to the AL Divisional Series, which starts Oct. 4.

The last time Toronto made it that far was nine years ago.

“I’m just so happy for them,” Schneider said. “It’s hard at this level for everyone to put their egos aside and to play for one another. It’s so cool to see these guys completely happy for one another when they get the job done no matter who it is. This is the most fulfilling team I’ve ever been a part of with different characters, different skill sets, guys coming together for one common goal which is what’s important now. This is something you always celebrate.”

The Blue Jays are trying to win their first World Series since 1993.

“Today we go back to the postseason, but the journey is not over yet,” Vladimir Guerrero Jr. said. “We still want to win the division over the next six games. Since spring training, everyone has been together and when you see a team like that you start believing.”

Toronto snapped a four-game losing streak with Sunday’s win, and after the game popped champagne in the visitors clubhouse in Kansas City.

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Fading Mets slump into wild-card tie with Reds

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Fading Mets slump into wild-card tie with Reds

NEW YORK — For nearly six months, almost the duration of an entire Major League Baseball regular season, the New York Mets occupied a spot in the National League playoff picture. That changed Sunday after a brutal loss that concluded an ugly weekend and prolonged a baffling three-plus-month swoon with a week remaining on their schedule.

The Mets’ 3-2 loss to the last-place Washington Nationals at Citi Field — a sloppy, toothless showing cemented with two jaw-dropping catches by Nationals center fielder Jacob Young — combined with the Cincinnati Reds’ 1-0 win over the Chicago Cubs dropped them from postseason position for the first time since April 5 when their season was eight games old.

“It’s the way it’s gone,” Mets left fielder Brandon Nimmo said. “I can believe it because I’ve watched it. We’ve been watching it happen right in front of us.”

While both teams have an 80-76 record with six games remaining, the Reds hold the tiebreaker after winning the season series between the clubs. The Mets, who have lost 11 of their last 15 games, finish the regular season with a road trip against the Chicago Cubs and Miami Marlins starting Tuesday. Cincinnati hosts the Pittsburgh Pirates for three games before concluding their schedule on the road against the Milwaukee Brewers.

The Arizona Diamondbacks are also looming, just one game behind the Reds and Mets in the standings for the third NL wild card spot. Arizona owns the tiebreaker over both clubs.

“We just gotta win,” Mets first baseman Pete Alonso said. “It’s simple. Winning solves everything at this point. We just gotta do it. That’s it. We got to solve our issues between the lines. That’s the simple fact.”

The Mets, at 45-24, boasted the best record in the majors through June 12. They looked like a club that would sail into October after clawing their way into the playoffs and defying expectations with a trip to the NLCS in 2024 through 69 games.

But this year’s team has produced inverse results from the 2024 version that stumbled early before a magical summer pushed them deep into October. These Mets, with the second-most expensive roster in the majors, have gone 35-52 since June 13. That is tied for the fourth-worst record over that stretch with the Chicago White Sox. Only the Nationals, Minnesota Twins and Colorado Rockies have been worse over the 87-game span.

They enter their final two series with a 50.1% chance of reaching the postseason, according to FanGraphs. They were given a 96.2% chance on June 12.

“I can’t put my finger quite on it other than we just haven’t been able to put it together as a team for an extended period of time,” Nimmo said.

The Mets, coming off an encouraging series victory over the playoff-bound San Diego Padres, took the series opener Friday behind an offensive outburst. But they fell on Saturday in 11 innings on an inside-the-park home before before early mistakes, coupled with Young’s defense, buried them on Sunday.

In the first inning, Juan Soto, who went 1 for 2 with two walks, was picked off at first base. In the second, Francisco Lindor committed a throwing error that allowed the game’s first run to score.

“If we want to be where we want to be, those things can’t happen,” Lindor said. “Full accountability on that. I have to be better.”

And in the third inning, Cedric Mullins failed to take second base on a line drive that he hit down the left-field line, a decision that potentially cost the Mets a run.

Mullins said he thought the ball was caught by Lile as he crashed into the wall. Meanwhile, first base coach Antoan Richardson thought it was ruled foul. But the ball was ruled fair and bounced out of Lile’s glove.

Luis Torrens, who was on second base, was unsure if Lile made the catch so retreated to tag up and scored on the play as Lile writhed in pain. Mullins, despite teammates yelling and signaling to him to run to second base, remained at first base. He was doubled off moments later when Lindor cracked a line drive to first base. Soto then lined what would’ve been an RBI double.

“You just gotta go,” Mendoza said.

On the mound, the Mets deployed Sean Manaea and Clay Holmes as a piggyback for the second time in the last week after both veterans struggled to effectively pitch deep into games in the second half. The duo combined to give up just three runs — all in the second inning off Manaea — over six innings, with the biggest damage coming from the light-hitting Nasim Nunez swatting a two-run home run.

In the end, the Mets’ $38 million tandem was outpitched by the Nationals’ $1.4 million piggyback of Jake Irvin and Mitchell Parker, who entered Sunday with the highest ERAs in the majors among qualified pitchers this season.

They were buoyed by two highlight-reel catches from Young in center field. The first, a circus grab in which he kicked the ball to himself, robbed Brett Baty of extra bases in the fifth inning. The second took away a potential game-tying home run for Francisco Alvarez in the ninth.

“Those were crazy plays,” Mullins said. “In the stretch we’re in, every win matters. To see plays like that made, definitely deflates [you] a little bit. [We’ve taken] some tough losses on the chin. We have a week left. We’re doing to do some damage so that’s what we’re focused on.”

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