Seven questions facing the CFP committee before its first rankings reveal
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Heather Dinich, ESPN Senior Writer
GRAPEVINE, Texas — Before the College Football Playoff selection committee members even began their first meeting here on Monday at the Gaylord Texan Resort, Texas coach Steve Sarkisian lobbed the first public pitch of the season in their direction.
“I’d argue we have the best win in the country right now,” Sarkisian told reporters on Monday at his weekly news conference. “The fact that we go into Tuscaloosa, Alabama, and beat a team that was 52-1 in the previous 53 games.
“I hear so much about how tough the SEC is, but I haven’t seen any of those teams go into Alabama and win either, so I feel pretty good about our team.”
He’s right. The Longhorns have the best nonconference win in the nation. But are they the best one-loss team? Or will that honor go to Oregon when the committee releases its first of six rankings Tuesday evening?
Nothing that has unfolded through the first nine weeks of the season will make this any easier for the 13-member group tasked with determining which of the five remaining undefeated Power 5 teams will be on the bubble this week: Georgia, Michigan, Ohio State, Florida State or Washington.
Adding to the drama is the ongoing investigation into Michigan, which is facing allegations of cheating by scouting future opponents in person at games. It’s an unprecedented situation for the committee members to consider — or try to ignore.
There are seven sitting athletic directors on the committee, including Michigan’s Warde Manuel, who is here and will recuse himself during voting and discussions about his team. The CFP on Monday declined to answer any specific questions about what Manuel can speak about as it relates to the investigation or how the committee will be instructed to handle it. CFP executive director Bill Hancock referred to his original statement: “The answer continues to be that the committee considers teams that are eligible to participate in a bowl game.”
Selection committee members are rotated every three years, so what might have been important to last year’s group could change this season with three new members in former Nevada coach Chris Ault, Miami (Ohio) athletic director David Sayler and Utah athletic director Mark Harlan, who replaced Jennifer Cohen when she was hired as USC’s AD.
Harlan is the Pac-12’s representative in the group, working alongside the ACC’s Boo Corrigan (NC State), the Big Ten’s Manuel, the SEC’s Mitch Barnhart (Kentucky) and the Big 12’s Gene Taylor (Kansas State). Navy athletic director Chet Gladchuk is entering his second year with the committee.
Other committee members include former Wake Forest, Ohio and Baylor coach Jim Grobe, former Nebraska All-America offensive lineman and NFL All-Pro Will Shields, former Notre Dame linebacker Rod West and Hall of Fame coach Joe Taylor, whose career spanned stops at Florida A&M, Hampton, Virginia Union and Howard. There is one woman in the group, former USA Today sportswriter Kelly Whiteside.
Committee members are directed through written protocol to consider strength of schedule, head-to-head results and outcomes against common opponents. Conference championships are the final piece of the puzzle, but the committee ranks 25 teams each week based only on what they’ve done to date.
These are the biggest questions facing the group, and their answers when the rankings are released will be the first clues to the playoff pecking order in the final season of a four-team field:
Who’s No. 1?
Ohio State, Florida State and Washington have the three best résumés, according to ESPN’s strength of record metric. Georgia’s strength of schedule so far ranks 100th, while Michigan’s ranks 111th.
Ohio State could have the best résumé in the country if both Penn State and Notre Dame are top-15 CFP teams. The committee also would value the Buckeyes’ recent road win against a respectable Wisconsin team. While its offense hasn’t been as consistent or explosive as others, Ohio State’s defense hasn’t allowed more than 17 points in a game all season.
Georgia has won back-to-back national titles and is undefeated, but the Bulldogs might not have any wins against CFP-ranked opponents, and the committee isn’t supposed to let previous seasons influence its voting. Georgia has played well against its toughest competition, though, and it proved Saturday against Florida that it can be a top-four team even without injured tight end Brock Bowers. How the committee evaluates Florida and Kentucky, which are both three-loss teams, will factor into where the Bulldogs are placed. Those are also the only two FBS opponents Georgia has defeated that have a winning record.
Florida State’s best win is against LSU in Orlando, and it trumps anything Georgia and Michigan have done yet, but the Noles’ overtime victory against Clemson no longer looks as impressive because the Tigers are a four-loss team. Washington arguably has the best overall win in the country — against Oregon — but the Huskies have won unconvincingly in each of the past two weeks.
Michigan has looked like the most complete team in the country and is No. 1 in ESPN’s game control metric (though Ohio State is No. 2, and Washington is No. 3). As good as the Wolverines have appeared, their best win is against Rutgers (6-2).
Speaking of Michigan …
How will the allegations against Michigan impact its ranking, if at all?
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It’s highly probable the investigation won’t impact Michigan at all, at least not if the selection committee members follow the written protocol committee chair Corrigan reminds them of at the start of each meeting. If the NCAA or the Big Ten levies a postseason ban, the Wolverines are out, but the investigation process at the NCAA level typically moves at a glacial pace.
ESPN reached out to past committee members to understand how the topic likely will be handled in the room.
“Because these things take so long, I think the committee tries to do things based on their criteria, based on the letter of the law, and I really don’t believe this would come into discussions during our meetings,” one former committee member said, “and if it did, it would be shut down really quickly because it doesn’t go with our standards. If for some reason [the investigation] was fast-tracked, and they vacated wins during the season, obviously that’s a different story.”
That doesn’t mean, though, that committee members won’t be talking about the allegations against Michigan outside the room.
There will likely be some “private disgust and conversations away from the table about how this is a kick in the gut to sportsmanship and, especially among coaches, kind of sacrilegious,” the same former committee member said.
“I think this is totally against everything that is fair and ethical about college football,” another former committee member said.
Another said “it’s almost worse” if a committee member penalizes Michigan because he or she thinks the school might have done something.
“That’s not a metric, right?” the person said. “That could end up really adversely affecting the other rankings, and that’s not right either.”
“I would say at this stage the committee should rank them as they deem appropriate,” the same committee member said. “Keep an eye on their eligibility. But I think they’d have to rank the team based on what they see. There’s plenty to question outside of the alleged cheating. They’re doing everything they’re supposed to against the schedule they’re playing, but there’s not a lot of meat on the bone as far as their opponents yet. So that may be more of a discussion point.”
Who is the highest-ranked one-loss team?
Sarkisian would like to think it’s Texas — and it could be — but Oregon has a strong case and enters the committee’s first conversation after a convincing win at Utah, where the Utes had won 18 straight home games. Harlan, the Utes’ athletic director, can certainly weigh in on what he saw from the Ducks firsthand, just like Kentucky’s Barnes will certainly have some opinions on what he witnessed about Georgia.
The Ducks have three wins against Power 5 teams .500 or better (Colorado, Washington State and Utah) and one victory against what should be a ranked CFP team in Utah. Four road wins is a detail the committee will notice — but so is a win against an FCS school, Portland State.
The Longhorns’ double-digit road victory at Alabama will be a focal point of the committee’s discussions about Texas, and their only loss was to their rival Oklahoma, by four points. Even without injured starting quarterback Quinn Ewers, the Longhorns earned a convincing home win on Saturday against BYU. Following Kansas‘ upset of Oklahoma on Saturday, it’s possible the selection committee has the Jayhawks in their top 25. That would give Texas a second win against a ranked opponent, along with the victory against the Crimson Tide. With the exceptions of Baylor and Houston, all the Longhorns’ wins have come against FBS opponents at .500 or better.
While Alabama is certainly one of the nation’s best one-loss teams, the Longhorns’ head-to-head true road win against the Tide will keep Alabama from leapfrogging Texas — for now.
Will the committee honor Oklahoma’s head-to-head win against Texas?
It would be surprising if the committee did, even though the teams have identical 7-1 records, considering the Sooners lost to Kansas and didn’t play well in their win against UCF. Oklahoma beat Texas 34-30 on Oct. 7, but the selection committee has caused controversy before by discounting a head-to-head result.
In 2021, the group ranked Michigan ahead of Michigan State in spite of the Spartans’ 37-33 October win over their in-state rival. At the time, committee chair Gary Barta said the group deemed Michigan the “more complete team” and better statistically “in just about every category.”
With OU and Texas, there aren’t many glaring statistical differences, though any can be pulled as an example in either team’s favor. The key factors could be Oklahoma’s two-point win against a 3-5 UCF team and the Sooners’ lack of a nonconference win against a Power 5 opponent.
Who’s on the bubble at No. 5?
With five undefeated Power 5 teams remaining, somebody is going to get snubbed. The most likely candidates for this dubious distinction are Washington, Michigan and Georgia.
What’s unique about this first ranking is Michigan could truly be No. 1 or No. 5 in such a subjective system. Michigan is No. 9 in ESPN’s strength of record metric, while Georgia is No. 7 and Washington is No. 3. (Strength of record measures how difficult it is for an average top-25 opponent to achieve the same record against the same opponents.)
The Huskies’ concern is how they’ve played each of the past two weeks, particularly in an unimpressive 15-7 win against Arizona State, which is now 2-6. Washington’s high-powered offense was held without a touchdown against the Sun Devils. On Saturday in a narrow victory against Stanford, Washington had two red zone turnovers. The Huskies’ win against Oregon, though, is looking better than ever after the Ducks’ triumph at Utah.
Where are the contenders’ opponents ranked?
This is where strength of schedule starts to be determined — at least in the committee members’ eyes. One of the most repeated justifications for where a team is ranked has been how many CFP top-25 opponents it has defeated. Well, the committee is the one that sets that bar.
So how good is the Big 12 beyond Texas and Oklahoma? Will the Sooners have defeated any ranked opponents besides Texas? Will Texas get a shot Saturday at another top-25 team in Kansas State?
How much has the ACC fallen with Clemson, North Carolina and Miami having multiple losses? That answer could help determine how much pressure is on Florida State to finish as an undefeated ACC champ.
And where is LSU ranked? Does Georgia have any top-25 wins yet?
Does any two-loss team have a chance?
No two-loss team has made the cut in the nine-year history of the CFP, but that doesn’t mean it can’t happen.
While Notre Dame could be the committee’s highest-ranked two-loss team, it’s incredibly difficult for the Fighting Irish to overcome that without a conference championship win against a ranked opponent. It will be hard for the committee to overlook their loss to Louisville, as well.
LSU is in a similar position to that of last season, when it had an opportunity to finish as a two-loss SEC champion and push the committee to see how seriously it would consider the Tigers. Instead, the Tigers finished as a three-loss runner-up to Georgia, and it was a moot point. The same could happen again on Saturday if LSU loses at Alabama.
One other possibility is two-loss Oregon State, which will end the season with back-to-back games against Washington and Oregon.
Keep an eye on where these two-loss teams are ranked Tuesday.
The lowest a team has ever been ranked in the initial CFP ranking and still made the playoff was No. 16 Ohio State in 2014, but the Buckeyes only had one loss and went on to win the national title that year.
What the first ranking really means
Over the first nine years of the four-team format, 21 of the 36 teams (58%) that were in the top four in the initial rankings ended up in the playoff. That leaves room for teams outside Tuesday’s top four to land a spot in the semifinals.
The lowest-ranked teams in the initial rankings to make it to the final four are Ohio State in 2014, when the Buckeyes started at No. 16, and Oklahoma in 2015, when the Sooners started at No. 15. Those are the only teams that were outside the top 10 of the first CFP rankings to make that year’s playoff.
On the other end of the scale, seven of the nine No. 1 teams in the first CFP rankings and 15 of the 18 teams initially ranked in the top two have reached the playoff. The exceptions are No. 1 Mississippi State in 2014, No. 2 LSU in 2015 and No. 1 Tennessee last year.
Only once, in 2020, did all of the top four teams in the initial rankings make it to the playoff.
ESPN’s Chris Low takes a year-by-year look at the top four in the first rankings, where those teams landed in the final rankings and the key elements that shaped each year’s race.
2022
No. 1 in first ranking: Tennessee (sixth in final ranking)
No. 2 in first ranking: Ohio State (fourth in final ranking)
No. 3 in first ranking: Georgia (first in final ranking)
No. 4 in first ranking: Clemson (seventh in final ranking)
Other playoff teams: No. 2 Michigan (fifth in first ranking), No. 3 TCU (seventh in first ranking)
No team in the 2022 playoff chase suffered a more crushing defeat than Tennessee, which was shredded 63-38 by unranked South Carolina in the next-to-last week of the regular season. The Vols were No. 5 heading into that Nov. 19 game, and their only loss was to No. 1 Georgia on the road. With Ohio State losing at home to Michigan in the final regular-season game, and TCU falling in the Big 12 championship game to Kansas State the next week, the door would have been open for the Vols to make the playoff as a one-loss team. Things fell just right for the Buckeyes to slide into the final playoff spot when USC blew its chance by losing to Utah (for the second time that season) in the Pac-12 championship game. The Trojans were No. 4 in the CFP rankings heading into their rematch with the Utes, but USC was beaten soundly, 47-24.
2021
No. 1 in first ranking: Georgia (third in final ranking)
No. 2 in first ranking: Alabama (first in final ranking)
No. 3 in first ranking: Michigan State (10th in final ranking)
No. 4 in first ranking: Oregon (14th in final ranking)
Other playoff teams: No. 2 Michigan (seventh in first ranking), No. 4 Cincinnati (sixth)
Michigan State seemed to be in great shape after beating Michigan 37-33 on Oct. 30 to secure the No. 3 spot in the first rankings. But that didn’t last. The Spartans lost 40-29 the next week at Purdue and were routed 56-7 by Ohio State two weeks after that. And the Wolverines only picked up steam after their close loss in East Lansing. They reeled off five straight victories, including a 42-27 win over Ohio State (their first in the series in 10 years) and earned their first playoff appearance. Meanwhile, Cincinnati went unbeaten during the regular season to become the first Group of 5 team to make the playoff, benefiting from Oregon losing twice to Utah in the final three weeks.
2020
No. 1 in first ranking: Alabama (first in final ranking)
No. 2 in first ranking: Notre Dame (fourth in final ranking)
No. 3 in first ranking: Clemson (second in final ranking)
No. 4 in first ranking: Ohio State (third in final ranking)
The selection committee’s top four remained intact in the final rankings, although Texas A&M lost just one game (to Alabama) while playing an all-SEC schedule during the shortened COVID-19 season and thought it deserved the No. 4 spot over a Notre Dame team that lost by 24 points to Clemson in the ACC championship game.
2019
No. 1 in first ranking: Ohio State (second in final ranking)
No. 2 in first ranking: LSU (first in final ranking)
No. 3 in first ranking: Alabama (13th in final ranking)
No. 4 in first ranking: Penn State (10th in final ranking)
Other playoff teams: No. 3 Clemson (fifth in first ranking), No. 4 Oklahoma (ninth)
Alabama transfer quarterback Jalen Hurts helped Oklahoma rebound from a 48-41 loss at Kansas State on Oct. 26 to win its next five games, including a 30-23 overtime win against Baylor in the Big 12 championship game, to climb to the No. 4 spot. Georgia had been No. 4 the previous four weeks but slipped to No. 5 in the final rankings after losing 37-10 to LSU in the SEC championship game.
2018
No. 1 in first ranking: Alabama (first in final ranking)
No. 2 in first ranking: Clemson (second in final ranking)
No. 3 in first ranking: LSU (11th in final ranking)
No. 4 in first ranking: Notre Dame (third in final ranking)
Other playoff team: No. 4 Oklahoma (seventh in first ranking)
Similar to the 2019 season, Hurts played a big role in how the final 2018 playoff rankings shook out, only this time he was playing for Alabama. Hurts came off the bench for an injured Tua Tagovailoa to pass for a touchdown and run for another in rallying Alabama past Georgia in the fourth quarter for a 35-28 win in the SEC championship game. That loss cost the Dawgs a spot in the playoff, as they fell from No. 4 to No. 5 in the final rankings. It also cleared the way for the Sooners to move from No. 5 to No. 4 after beating Texas in the Big 12 championship game for their seventh straight win.
2017
No. 1 in first ranking: Georgia (third in final ranking)
No. 2 in first ranking: Alabama (fourth in final ranking)
No. 3 in first ranking: Notre Dame (14th in final ranking)
No. 4 in first ranking: Clemson (first in final ranking)
Other playoff team: No. 2 Oklahoma (fifth in first ranking)
The team that didn’t make the playoff in 2017 that most shaped the field was Auburn. In a span of three weeks to end the regular season, Auburn beat No. 1 Georgia and No. 1 Alabama to move to No. 2 in the next-to-last rankings despite having two losses. But in a rematch with Georgia in the SEC championship game, Auburn lost 28-7 to the Dawgs, paving the way for both Alabama and Georgia to move back into the top four and eventually play for the national championship. Alabama had been No. 5 and Georgia No. 6 the week before in the committee’s rankings. If Auburn had won the SEC title game, the Tigers would have been the only two-loss team ever to make the playoff field.
2016
No. 1 in first ranking: Alabama (first in final ranking)
No. 2 in first ranking: Clemson (second in final ranking)
No. 3 in first ranking: Michigan (sixth in final ranking)
No. 4 in first ranking: Texas A&M (did not make final ranking)
Other playoff teams: No. 3 Ohio State (sixth in first ranking), No. 4 Washington (fifth)
Penn State fans still grimace over this one. The Nittany Lions finished one spot out of the playoff, at No. 5 in the final rankings. That’s despite beating Ohio State head-to-head and winning their last nine games, including a 38-31 decision over Wisconsin in the Big Ten championship game. Ohio State was the Big Ten team that made the playoff, though, as the Buckeyes had just one loss as compared to the Nittany Lions’ two losses. Eventual national champion Clemson survived a 43-42 home loss to Pittsburgh on Nov. 12 to finish No. 2 in the final rankings. Pitt was unranked at the time of the game but was No. 23 in the committee’s final rankings.
2015
No. 1 in first ranking: Clemson (first in final ranking)
No. 2 in first ranking: LSU (20th in final ranking)
No. 3 in first ranking: Ohio State (seventh in final ranking)
No. 4 in first ranking: Alabama (second in final ranking)
Other playoff teams: No. 3 Michigan State (seventh in first ranking), No. 4 Oklahoma (15th)
One of the biggest kicks during the College Football Playoff era was courtesy of Michael Geiger, whose 41-yard field goal as time expired lifted Michigan State to a 17-14 win over Ohio State, snapping the Buckeyes’ 23-game winning streak. Ohio State was No. 3 entering the Nov. 21 game. The Spartans won their next two, including a 16-13 win over Iowa in the Big Ten championship game, to make the playoff. The Iowa-Michigan State tilt was essentially a play-in, as the Hawkeyes came in at No. 4 and the Spartans were No. 5 in the committee’s rankings. Oklahoma made its big move up from No. 15 after beating No. 6 Baylor on the road Nov. 14 then hammering No. 6 Oklahoma State 58-23 two weeks later to win the Big 12 championship game.
2014
No. 1 in first ranking: Mississippi State (seventh in final ranking)
No. 2 in first ranking: Florida State (third in final ranking)
No. 3 in first ranking: Auburn (19th in final ranking)
No. 4 in first ranking: Ole Miss (ninth in final ranking)
Other playoff teams: No. 1 Alabama (sixth in first ranking), No. 2 Oregon (fifth), No. 4 Ohio State (16th)
Three SEC teams in the initial playoff rankings? The rest of the college football world was fuming, but none of the three ended up in the final four. Eventual national champion Ohio State was the comeback story that season. The Buckeyes lost in Week 2 at home by two touchdowns to a Virginia Tech team that dropped six games. Ohio State also lost a pair of quarterbacks — Braxton Miller and J.T. Barrett — to injury but clawed back to secure the No. 4 spot in the final rankings, moving up from No. 5 after a 59-0 drubbing on Wisconsin in the Big Ten championship game. Nobody was more upset that season than TCU. At the time, the Big 12 didn’t have a championship game, and the Horned Frogs, who were No. 3 in the next-to-last rankings, closed the regular season by drubbing a 2-10 Iowa State team 55-3. That clinched the Frogs a share of the Big 12 championship, but it wasn’t enough to impress the committee, as TCU somehow fell to No. 6 in the final rankings.
Aside from a loss Thursday, the Colorado Avalanche keep rolling, and their spot atop the NHL standings is equaled by their position in the ESPN NHL Power Rankings.
Beyond the Avalanche, the Washington Capitals, Pittsburgh Penguins and Philadelphia Flyers rose up the rankings this week, while the Anaheim Ducks, New Jersey Devils and Utah Mammoth took a tumble.
The month of December includes many games on the schedule, and for this week’s edition of the Power Rankings, we’ve identified the most intriguing matchup on the docket for each club.
How we rank: A panel of ESPN hockey commentators, analysts, reporters and editors sends in a 1-32 poll based on the games through Wednesday.
Note: Previous ranking for each team refers to the previous edition, published Nov. 28. Points percentages are through Thursday’s games.
Previous ranking: 1
Points percentage: 81.5%
Dec. 27 at the Golden Knights. Months remain before the Stanley Cup playoff picture crystallizes into its final form. It’s a decent bet, however, that the Avs and Knights will both be skating into late April and beyond, and this contest is as good of a Western Conference finals preview as we may get before the actual thing — or at least until their next game on the schedule on April 11.
Next seven days: @ NYR (Dec. 6), @ PHI (Dec. 7), @ NSH (Dec. 9), vs. FLA (Dec. 11)
Previous ranking: 2
Points percentage: 73.2%
Dec. 13 vs. the Panthers. The Stars have won a great many of their games this season; they are second in the NHL standings behind the juggernaut Avs. But one of the games they didn’t win was against the defending Stanley Cup champs. Can they get a W here, in the last time they’ll see them this season until a possible Cup Final?
Next seven days: vs. SJ (Dec. 5), vs. PIT (Dec. 7), @ WPG (Dec. 9), @ MIN (Dec. 11)
Previous ranking: 3
Points percentage: 65.4%
Dec. 20 at the Lightning. There’s a lot of season left. But it looks these two former Southeast Division rivals will be near the top of their respective divisions — and could square off in the Eastern Conference finals in May.
Next seven days: vs. NSH (Dec. 6), vs. SJ (Dec. 7), vs. CBJ (Dec. 9), @ WSH (Dec. 11)
Previous ranking: 5
Points percentage: 63%
Dec. 9 at/Dec. 28 vs. the Canadiens. There were many strange events during the early 2020s. One of them was the 2020-21 NHL season where four new divisions were created, and the playoffs culminated in a Stanley Cup Final pitting one Atlantic Division team against another. Years have passed since then, and now both the Lightning and Canadiens are fighting for playoff position among their traditional division rivals.
Next seven days: vs. NYI (Dec. 6), @ TOR (Dec. 8), @ MTL (Dec. 9), @ NJ (Dec. 11)
Previous ranking: 8
Points percentage: 62.5%
Dec. 27 at the Jets. Around 450 miles separate these two Central Division rivals, but both will be fighting for similar real estate in the playoff race if the Avs and Stars keep dominating as they have.
Next seven days: @ VAN (Dec. 6), @ SEA (Dec. 8), vs. DAL (Dec. 11)
0:56
Jesper Wallstedt records 4th shutout in 6 games
Arda Öcal breaks down Jesper Wallstedt’s historic accomplishment following Minnesota’s 1-0 victory.
Previous ranking: 12
Points percentage: 64.3%
Dec. 11 vs. the Hurricanes. Although the team matchup here is notable — both the Caps and Canes are near the top of the Metro — this comes down to a historical stat angle for Alex Ovechkin. The team against which Ovi has scored the most goals in his record-breaking career is the Winnipeg Jets (58); No. 2 on that list is Carolina (53). Does he close the gap with a tally (or two, or three) in this contest?
Next seven days: @ ANA (Dec. 5), vs. CBJ (Dec. 7), vs. CAR (Dec. 11)
Previous ranking: 4
Points percentage: 61.1%
Dec. 27 at the Kings. With the Ducks back in the contenders’ mix this season, these Battle of SoCal games take on extra meaning. Anaheim won the most recent matchup, 5-4 in a shootout, on Nov. 28.
Next seven days: vs. WSH (Dec. 5), vs. CHI (Dec. 7), @ PIT (Dec. 9), @ NYI (Dec. 11)
Previous ranking: 7
Points percentage: 61.5%
Dec. 23 vs. the Sharks. For the first few years of the Golden Knights’ existence, the Sharks were a bitter rival, including some epic, violent clashes in the postseason. San Jose dropped off a bit, but appears back on the upswing. Will this showdown match the intensity of seasons past?
Next seven days: @ NJ (Dec. 5), @ NYR (Dec. 7), @ NYI (Dec. 9), @ PHI (Dec. 11)
Previous ranking: 6
Points percentage: 61.1%
Dec. 14 vs. the Canucks. With the trade rumor machine running on overdrive when it comes to Quinn Hughes joining his brothers in New Jersey at some point, this is another chance for the Devils faithful to see the eldest Hughes brother in action with his current team.
Next seven days: vs. VGK (Dec. 5), @ BOS (Dec. 6), @ OTT (Dec. 9), vs. TB (Dec. 11)
Previous ranking: 15
Points percentage: 63.5%
Dec. 13 vs. the Sharks. Penguins fans have been blessed to see Sidney Crosby in 1,378 regular-season games (and 180 in the playoffs). On this night, they’ll see Macklin Celebrini on PPG Paints Arena ice, a player whose game has recently drawn Crosby comparisons.
Next seven days: @ DAL (Dec. 7), vs. ANA (Dec. 9), vs. MTL (Dec. 11)
0:42
Sidney Crosby notches goal on the power play
Sidney Crosby notches goal on the power play
Previous ranking: 9
Points percentage: 57.4%
Dec. 29 at the Avalanche. The true test for the 2025-26 Kings will be in how far they progress in the playoffs. But this late-December matchup against the current top team in the West will be a good litmus test.
Next seven days: vs. CHI (Dec. 6), @ UTA (Dec. 8), @ SEA (Dec. 10)
Previous ranking: 21
Points percentage: 63.5%
Dec. 13 vs./Dec. 14 at the Hurricanes. The Flyers’ current standings position is a moderate surprise to those who did not peg them as a playoff team. This home-and-home series against the perennial playoff-contending Canes is a chance for Philly to make a statement.
Next seven days: vs. COL (Dec. 7), vs. SJ (Dec. 9), vs. VGK (Dec. 11)
Previous ranking: 10
Points percentage: 58.9%
Dec. 27 vs. the Rangers. Neither of these teams has what could be called a firm grasp on a playoff spot at this point, but the geographic rivals always bring the heat to these games no matter the standings.
Next seven days: @ TB (Dec. 6), @ FLA (Dec. 7), vs. VGK (Dec. 9), vs. ANA (Dec. 11)
Previous ranking: 16
Points percentage: 55.6%
Dec. 27 at the Maple Leafs. Have the Senators surpassed the Leafs? Ottawa didn’t have enough to knock Toronto off in the clubs’ first-round playoff series in the spring but sits ahead of its intraprovince rival currently.
Next seven days: vs. STL (Dec. 6), vs. NJ (Dec. 9), @ CBJ (Dec. 11)
Previous ranking: 17
Points percentage: 59.6%
Dec. 6 at the Maple Leafs. Is there anything better than a Saturday night matchup between the Canadiens and Maple Leafs? The clubs have split their matchups thus far, and their next tilt after this one isn’t until March 10.
Next seven days: @ TOR (Dec. 6), vs. STL (Dec. 7), vs. TB (Dec. 9), @ PIT (Dec. 11)
Previous ranking: 14
Points percentage: 55.4%
Dec. 13 at the Blackhawks. These two teams are no longer Norris Division rivals (or even in the same conference), but there’s always something special about a Blackhawks-Red Wings game!
Next seven days: @ SEA (Dec. 6), @ VAN (Dec. 8), @ CGY (Dec. 10), @ EDM (Dec. 11)
0:50
Patrick Kane lights the lamp for Red Wings
Patrick Kane lights the lamp
Previous ranking: 22
Points percentage: 55.2%
Dec. 23 vs. the Canadiens. These two of the Original Six clubs are both in playoff position in the first week of December, which adds some fuel to this rivalry compared to recent seasons when one team was clearly better than the other.
Next seven days: vs. NJ (Dec. 6), @ STL (Dec. 9), @ WPG (Dec. 11)
Previous ranking: 13
Points percentage: 51.8%
Dec. 14 at the Penguins. While the Mammoth and Penguins are fighting for postseason positioning, this game is under more of a spotlight for one Utah skater in particular: Logan Cooley, who grew up in the Pittsburgh area and participated in Sidney Crosby’s “Little Penguin” youth hockey program.
Next seven days: @ VAN (Dec. 5), @ CGY (Dec. 6), vs. LA (Dec. 8), vs. FLA (Dec. 10)
Previous ranking: 11
Points percentage: 56%
Dec. 12 at the Mammoth. Utah isn’t technically an expansion team, but this is still correctly described as the NHL’s two newest teams facing off in what also happens to be a superb uniform matchup — and a pivotal contest in the Western wild-card standings as well.
Next seven days: vs. DET (Dec. 6), vs. MIN (Dec. 8), vs. LA (Dec. 10)
Previous ranking: 26
Points percentage: 55.2%
Dec. 23/Dec. 31 at the Capitals. If the Rangers are going to get back in the playoff mix, they’ll need to win head-to-head games against teams currently occupying those spots. This double shot of contests against the Caps is an even better opportunity because both games are on the road.
Next seven days: vs. COL (Dec. 6), vs. VGK (Dec. 7), @ CHI (Dec. 10)
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Artemi Panarin gets his 900th career point
Arda Öcal reports on the big nights from Artemi Panarin and Mika Zibanejad against the Ottawa Senators.
Previous ranking: 20
Points percentage: 55.6%
Dec. 7 at the Ducks. Since it’s not possible for the Blackhawks to play the Sharks and Ducks at the same time, we’ll pick this matchup that will showcase Connor Bedard against fellow young dynamo Leo Carlsson. Bedard & Co. will next see Macklin Celebrini and San Jose on Feb. 2.
Next seven days: @ LA (Dec. 6), @ ANA (Dec. 7), vs. NYR (Dec. 10)
Previous ranking: 24
Points percentage: 57.4%
Dec. 7 vs. the Capitals. The Caps and Blue Jackets have played some memorable games in recent seasons — including two Columbus victories down the stretch of 2024-25 when the club was fighting for the final wild-card spot. The Caps have won both contests this season — and both were a 5-1 final score — so the Blue Jackets are out for some vengeance in this one.
Next seven days: @ FLA (Dec. 6), @ WSH (Dec. 7), @ CAR (Dec. 9), vs. OTT (Dec. 11)
Previous ranking: 23
Points percentage: 51.8%
Dec. 29 at the Ducks. When it comes to rising teams in the Pacific Division, the Ducks appear to be about a year ahead of the Sharks, so this will be a glimpse into the future for San Jose fans. But it’s also a showdown of two of the league’s most exciting young talents in San Jose’s Macklin Celebrini and Anaheim’s Leo Carlsson.
Next seven days: @ DAL (Dec. 5), @ CAR (Dec. 7), @ PHI (Dec. 9), @ TOR (Dec. 11)
Previous ranking: 18
Points percentage: 51.9%
Dec. 9 vs. the Stars; Dec. 11 vs. the Bruins. At this point, we’d hope that fans in Winnipeg appreciate the fine art of goaltending, given that Connor Hellebuyck — arguably the best American goalie of all time — plays for the Jets. If so, this pair of home games will be a treat, as fellow elite American goalies Jake Oettinger and Jeremy Swayman come to town in the same week.
Next seven days: vs. BUF (Dec. 5), @ EDM (Dec. 6), vs. DAL (Dec. 9), vs. BOS (Dec. 11)
Previous ranking: 28
Points percentage: 53.7%
Dec. 16 vs. the Blackhawks. Three days after Connor McDavid and the Oilers buzz through the Six, another Canadian-born superstar named Connor will grace Scotiabank Arena. So, in a season that hasn’t gone as well as planned for the Leafs, at least Toronto fans will get an extended look at one definite member of their Olympic team (and one possible addition).
Next seven days: vs. MTL (Dec. 6), vs. TB (Dec. 8), vs. SJ (Dec. 11), vs. EDM (Dec. 13)
0:44
Matthew Knies falls to knees, gets up to score great goal for Leafs
Matthew Knies falls to knees, gets up to score great goal for Leafs
Previous ranking: 19
Points percentage: 50%
Dec. 15 at/Dec. 27 vs. the Lightning. The NHL schedule makers provided us with a double shot of the Battle of Florida this month! The action will be electric, as usual — although the teams will probably finish with fewer than the 65 penalties for 312 minutes they amassed in their preseason matchup on Oct. 4.
Next seven days: vs. CBJ (Dec. 6), vs. NYI (Dec. 7), @ UTA (Dec. 10), @ COL (Dec. 11)
Previous ranking: 25
Points percentage: 51.8%
Dec. 13 at the Maple Leafs. Last season, both of these clubs were firmly in playoff position but would see their seasons end at the hands of the Cup champion Panthers. This season hasn’t gone so well. Which of the two could use this mid-December matchup as a turning point?
Next seven days: vs. WPG (Dec. 6), vs. BUF (Dec. 9), vs. DET (Dec. 11)
Previous ranking: 27
Points percentage: 48.2%
Dec. 31 at the Stars. The closest that Buffalo has come to a Stanley Cup was in the 1999 Final, which it lost in controversial fashion to the Stars, who just came out with a new uniform paying homage to that title. Will Dallas be sporting those unis on New Year’s Eve?
Next seven days: @ WPG (Dec. 5), @ CGY (Dec. 8), @ EDM (Dec. 9), @ VAN (Dec. 11)
Previous ranking: 29
Points percentage: 44.6%
Dec. 12 vs. the Blackhawks. Not a ton has gone the Blues’ way this season, but maybe this old-school rivalry matchup against Chicago will serve to get them back on track for a big second half.
Next seven days: @ OTT (Dec. 6), @ MTL (Dec. 7), vs. BOS (Dec. 9), @ NSH (Dec. 11)
Previous ranking: 30
Points percentage: 42.6%
Dec. 29 at the Kraken. When it comes to regional rivalries, the Canucks-Kraken matchup isn’t on the level of many others around the league … yet. Perhaps this game jump-starts a big run for the Nucks.
Next seven days: vs. UTA (Dec. 5), vs. MIN (Dec. 6), vs. DET (Dec. 8), vs. BUF (Dec. 11)
Previous ranking: 32
Points percentage: 44.4%
Dec. 27 at the Blues. This hasn’t been the greatest season in franchise history. But this game could at least get a bit chippy — it’ll be Nashville’s third against St. Louis in December.
Next seven days: @ CAR (Dec. 6), vs. COL (Dec. 9), vs. STL (Dec. 11)
Previous ranking: 31
Points percentage: 41.4%
Dec. 23 at/Dec. 27 vs. the Oilers. There isn’t quite as much juice for these Battle of Alberta contests as when these two met in the 2022 Stanley Cup playoffs, but there’s every reason to expect fireworks in this bitter feud.
Next seven days: vs. UTA (Dec. 6), vs. BUF (Dec. 8), vs. DET (Dec. 10)
Sports
What Buster Olney, Jeff Passan are hearing about Schwarber’s suitors, top free agents and blockbuster trades
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Buster Olney
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Buster Olney
ESPN Senior Writer
- Senior writer ESPN Magazine/ESPN.com
- Analyst/reporter ESPN television
- Author of “The Last Night of the Yankee Dynasty”
MLB’s winter meetings begin Monday in Orlando, Florida, signaling the time when baseball’s offseason activity is likely to take off.
What’s the latest on free agent hitters, including coveted sluggers Kyle Schwarber and Kyle Tucker? Will Framber Valdez find a new home now that fellow top free agent pitcher Dylan Cease is off the board? What’s the latest on a trade market featuring stars such as Ketel Marte and Steven Kwan? And which teams could surprise the sport by making a big splash in Florida?
Here is the latest intel Buster Olney and Jeff Passan are hearing on the players, teams and themes that will rule this year’s meetings.
Last year’s winter meetings were all about Juan Soto — is there one free agent or theme on everyone’s mind going into the meetings this year?
Olney: Some agents and execs are saying the money for free agents is generally locked down. There are outliers, of course — the Toronto Blue Jays are doing their thing, and the Pittsburgh Pirates, A’s and Miami Marlins are all angling for a We Are Trying posture.
The very elite guys, such as Kyle Schwarber, will get their money. But there are early indications that a lot of the teams that are traditionally aggressive might be more conservative this winter, perhaps because of the looming labor situation — and that could lead to more trades, rather than investments in free agents, as teams look to plug holes.
Passan: When does the Kyle Schwarber dam break? Several teams’ fortunes — from Philadelphia to Cincinnati to Pittsburgh to Boston to Baltimore to the New York Mets — depend on where Schwarber goes. The belief among teams is that it will take five years to secure the 32-year-old, and once that happens — perhaps sometime during the meetings — teams will start pivoting, and the action will pick up demonstrably.
Which top free agent hitter is most likely to sign during the winter meetings?
Olney: In recent winters, the Blue Jays wanted to spend big and couldn’t entice Shohei Ohtani or Juan Soto to take their money. Now, some free agents could need Toronto, if some of the big-money teams pass on pricey moves. Kyle Tucker has been projected as a $400 million-plus player, but it might behoove him to move quickly if he gets an early, aggressive bid from the Jays (or some other team).
This is not a winter in which you want to be waiting for the big offers to materialize, as they did for Bryce Harper and Manny Machado in past offseasons.
Passan: Schwarber is the best bet. Tucker isn’t close to done yet. Cody Bellinger has a healthy market but is biding his time. Alex Bregman and Bo Bichette are world-class infielders with ample, moneyed suitors. Pete Alonso‘s signing could go down after Schwarber.
What’s clear is that there’s a group of teams that will spend on a big bat (Phillies, Red Sox, Blue Jays), a number surveying multiple options (Yankees, Mets, Cubs) and a handful that would do so opportunistically (Orioles, Tigers, Reds, Pirates). Others could emerge depending on how the market plays out and what trade possibilities emerge.
Which other hitters could move quickly at the meetings?
Olney: Cedric Mullins‘ choice to sign for a one-year, $7 million, with the Tampa Bay Rays could be a warning sign for this free agent class. Mullins was not a perfect free agent by any measure, after his struggles with the Mets, but the rapidity with which he agreed to a deal could reflect the general feeling that this market could play out like a game of musical chairs — if you’ve got offers in hand, it’d be best to move fast and grab a spot (and money). Jorge Polanco could be among those who sign sooner rather than later — he’s coveted by the Mariners and some other teams. Harrison Bader set himself up well with a strong performance in Philadelphia.
Passan: If Schwarber goes early, everyone is in play. Otherwise, the second tier of hitters includes infielder Jorge Polanco, catcher J.T. Realmuto and Japanese corner infielder Kazuma Okamoto, and teams believe there could be momentum toward deals with them. Another popular hitter: infielder Ha-Seong Kim, who could return to Atlanta — which still needs a shortstop — on a shorter-term deal or seek longer-term security elsewhere.
Now that Dylan Cease has signed, which big-name aces could move next?
Olney: It depends on your definition of ‘big-name.’ Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander, future Hall of Famers, will find landing spots, but they are on the downslopes of their remarkable careers; they can wait, and there is a presumption that Scherzer could pitch for his good friend and new San Francisco Giants manager Tony Vitello.
If you’re talking about the guys who will be getting paid the most, Framber Valdez and Ranger Suarez are next up, and there are clearly teams with which they could fit. The Mets need an ace; the Orioles need an ace. But the perceived expectations for Valdez’s next deal are high early in this offseason, evaluators say, and any team that bids on Suarez has to get comfortable with investing in a guy who doesn’t throw hard — which is not common in this era.
Passan: Teams in the mix for Suarez believe he’s the next big-time starter off the board. Though the 30-year-old won’t fetch a Dylan Cease-level deal, he long has been a target for Houston, which balks at deals beyond six years, and Baltimore, which is seeking a top-end rotation piece. Right-hander Michael King has widespread interest because of his frontline potential with a willingness to sign for a shorter term than the top starters. Also worth watching: right-hander Merrill Kelly, who at 37 is in line for a multiyear deal. Arguably the best starter in the class, Valdez is often among the league leaders in innings with a playoff résumé, and his market will unfold alongside the best hitters’.
Will we see a run of reliever signings following Devin Williams and Ryan Helsley getting deals?
Olney: Not necessarily, because there are so many relievers available — more than 100 unsigned free agents. Pete Fairbanks could be among the next to sign, and the 35-year-old Robert Suarez. Edwin Diaz‘s free agency is fascinating because he’s the best available pitcher in an offseason in which there are few teams seemingly prepared to invest a nine-figure contract on a short reliever. He has been linked to the Mets, of course, and the Blue Jays, but each of those teams has been filling other holes, so far.
Passan: The run on relievers is slowing slightly, though Fairbanks and Kyle Finnegan are the closers who could be had sooner than later. Tyler Rogers is primed to get a three-year deal, as is Brad Keller, who could transition to be a starter. Luke Weaver will get multiple years. The left-handed market is thin and led by Steven Matz, Caleb Ferguson, Taylor Rogers, Gregory Soto and Sean Newcomb. Diaz and Robert Suarez are the two best relievers left, and they are likely to wait for the larger market to shake out.
Which players will be mentioned most in winter meetings trade discussions?
Olney: It makes sense for teams that have trade candidates under team control into 2027 to weigh offers now because they might struggle to get proper value for those players next July, given the labor uncertainty after the season. That means players such as Mackenzie Gore of the Nationals — and Paul Toboni, Washington’s president of baseball operations, said in a “Baseball Tonight” podcast interview Wednesday that he has talked with Gore about hearing his name in trade rumors — and Kwan of the Guardians.
Interestingly, other teams report that the Twins haven’t been pushing Joe Ryan in trade discussions. Maybe that’s because they don’t have to, or, in the opinion of some evaluators, Minnesota could prefer to keep Ryan. The Diamondbacks told interested teams in July that they wouldn’t trade Marte, but their posture now is very different; they have to improve their rotation, and the quickest way to do that would be to swap Marte.
Passan: Multiple executives see a flurry of potential trades, headlined by Marte, Arizona’s All-Star second baseman. The Diamondbacks aren’t clamoring to move him. They also know that with five very affordable years under contract, Marte is among the most valuable players in baseball, thanks to his combination of productivity and cost. Another second baseman teams are considering: Tampa Bay’s Brandon Lowe.
Miami is almost certain to move a starting pitcher this winter, and Edward Cabrera has generated the most interest. Boston has been discussing its outfield surplus with multiple teams. Pittsburgh wants to trade a starter for a hitter. The Brendan Donovan market remains conflagrant, as St. Louis considers whether its rebuild will include him or the hefty return he would fetch.
Which is one surprise team to watch at the winter meetings?
Olney: We aren’t accustomed to seeing the Pirates, Marlins or A’s among the most aggressive teams, but they seem to be like college freshmen holding credit cards for the first time — some agents think they’ll add something in the range of $25 million to $30 million in payroll, either in salaries acquired through trades or in free agency.
Passan: After getting Helsley in free agency and Taylor Ward in a trade, the Orioles are looking to land a big player — and though the priority is pitching, they’re not against targeting a hitter, either. The Los Angeles Angels, whose last major free agent signing for more than $65 million was Anthony Rendon in December 2019, are still looking to bolster their rotation after trading for Grayson Rodriguez and signing Alek Manoah.
What else are you hearing that will shape the winter meetings?
Olney: The juiciest rumor I heard this week was the notion that the Mets could push the Phillies for Schwarber, and there are a lot of reasons this could make sense. Beyond Schwarber’s power and on-base capability — can you imagine pitchers working to get through Schwarber and Soto in the same inning? — he is known as someone who works to pull players together. And hell, even if the Mets don’t believe they can beat the Phillies in the bidding for the slugger, they could push Philadelphia’s cost by being involved, as the Braves did with Aaron Nola two winters ago.
There’s a lot of talk among teams about Murakami, the free agent corner infielder who is making his way from Japan — and skepticism, in some front offices, about how his skill set will play in the big leagues, given his big swing-and-miss profile and the perception that his defense could be a problem. But all he needs in this bidding is for one team (or more) to fall in love with his big-time power.
Passan: If Schwarber signs and unclogs the market, expect others to fall — either toward the end of the meetings or in the weeks leading up to Christmas. Japanese right-hander Tatsuya Imai could wind up with a big-market team on the East Coast, and the New York Yankees — with Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodon expected to miss the start of the season — New York Mets and Philadelphia are reasonable landing spots. All three have interest in Bellinger, too. Another Japanese star, Murakami, is more likely to sign in the period between the meetings and holidays. With the paucity of center fielders in free agency and on the trade market, Bader has a healthy market.
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Alden Gonzalez
Former Los Angeles Angels manager Ron Washington is joining the San Francisco Giants‘ coaching staff, he confirmed Thursday..
Washington, a longtime third-base coach before managerial stints with the Texas Rangers and Angels, will be named infield coach for the Giants.
“We are working out the logistics. I have agreed to join the Giants,” Washington told The Associated Press in a text message Thursday. “I get a chance to continue to make a difference.”
Washington was hired to manage the Angels leading up to the 2024 season but spent a good chunk of 2025 away from the team after undergoing quadruple bypass heart surgery and was told he would not return at season’s end.
Washington, 73, who stated near the end of the season that he was in good health and expressed a desire to continue managing, now will join the staff of rookie manager and longtime Tennessee Volunteers coach Tony Vitello.
Washington, who also managed the Texas Rangers to back-to-back World Series appearances in 2010 and 2011, has long been hailed as one of the best infield instructors in the game, drawing rave reviews from several All-Star-caliber players in his extended time with the Atlanta Braves (2017-23) and then-Oakland Athletics (1996-2006, 2015-16).
In San Francisco, Washington will work primarily with a Gold Glove third baseman in Matt Chapman, a star-caliber shortstop in Willy Adames and Rafael Devers, the slugging third baseman who is still working through his transition to first base.
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