CFP rankings Anger Index: Who should be most upset with their placement?
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David Hale, ESPN Staff Writer
The 2023 season has already enjoyed its share of outrage, from Ryan Day’s feud with Lou Holtz to Dabo Swinney’s lecture to a radio show caller, but Tuesday marks the official start of outrage season.
Yes, the first priority of the College Football Playoff rankings is to determine which teams are best positioned to make a run at a national championship. But only slightly less important is the giant tub of gasoline the rankings inevitably throw on the simmering fires of fan anger.
Throughout the final weeks of each season of the four-team playoff, we’ve reenacted some version of the same drama.
Step 1: Rankings are released.
Step 2: Everybody gets mad.
Step 3: The poor sap chosen to head the committee — in this case, NC State AD Boo Corrigan — has to attempt to explain the inexplicable while the nation pelts him with metaphorical tomatoes.
Well, we hear you, and we’re happy to serve as your tomato. We can’t change the committee’s mind but we can provide a soapbox to air your grievances.
With that in mind, here’s our first installment of the 2023 Anger Index, ranking the teams with the most coherent arguments against their current rankings by those fools in Dallas.
The committee rightfully rewarded Ohio State for its two marquee wins against Notre Dame and Penn State, even if the Buckeyes haven’t always looked particularly dominant — even against the likes of Indiana or Wisconsin. But if the committee was wise enough to value Ohio State’s strengths rather than focus on nitpicking, why not do the same for FSU?
Florida State has a win over No. 14 LSU by 21. Ohio State’s big wins, by the way, are by a combined 11. Florida State also has wins over SP+ top-30 teams Duke and Clemson. FSU is undefeated against the No. 49 schedule (per ESPN Stats & Information) and ranks second in strength of record.
And yet Georgia (No. 100 schedule, No. 7 strength of record) and Michigan (No. 111 schedule, No. 9 strength of record) both check in higher.
We’re open to giving Georgia the benefit of the doubt. The Bulldogs have proved they’re postseason behemoths. But Michigan? Even with a full 23andMe DNA database on every scholarship player, the Wolverines couldn’t get past TCU.
Given that FSU’s remaining schedule isn’t exactly difficult, starting at No. 4 is a potential red flag if the race for the top four gets crowded.
The Irish are behind No. 14 LSU, another two-loss team, and, honestly, it makes no sense.
Notre Dame endured a brutal four-game stretch against ranked teams. It came away with wins over Duke and USC, and if it had remembered you can play with 11 guys on defense, it might well have a win over No. 1 Ohio State. Its two losses are to two teams ranked in the top 13, and it has a dominant win over the Trojans.
Are we possibly holding K-State’s two losses against the Wildcats because they looked bad at the time? In retrospect, losing on a ridiculous late field goal to No. 12 Missouri and by eight to No. 22 Oklahoma State doesn’t seem so bad. K-State is a victim of bad vibes more than bad performances.
A quick comparison of some two-loss teams:
Team A: 3-2 vs. FPI top 40 with an average points margin of 11.4; top 25 in offensive and defensive SP+, No. 13 overall in SP+
Team B: 3-2 vs. FPI top 40 with an average points margin of 3.2; top 5 in offensive SP+ but 43 in defensive SP+, No. 12 overall in SP+
Team A, you might have guessed, is Kansas State. Team B is LSU, which checks in nine spots higher in the rankings.
And don’t even get us started on USC being ranked higher than the Wildcats, too.
Here’s a list of the unranked two-loss Power 5 teams: Rutgers, Iowa, North Carolina and Miami.
We can understand the Rutgers snub. The Knights’ best wins came early against Northwestern and Virginia Tech teams that have both vastly improved since then.
We can understand the Iowa snub. The committee members likely fell asleep during its games.
We can even understand UNC’s snub, despite its head-to-head win over Miami. The past two losses to Virginia and Georgia Tech are inexcusable. Indeed, the committee might be doing UNC a favor. The Heels don’t play well with a little number next to their name.
But Miami? With wins over Texas A&M and Clemson? Well, there should be some genuine outrage here.
Oh, not at the committee. We get its decision. We’re just still fuming over Mario Cristobal’s refusal to kneel against Georgia Tech. If he had, Miami would be 7-1 and likely in the top 15.
JMU can’t be mad at the committee for its unranked status. This is the result of the ridiculous rule that requires any team moving from FCS to FBS to serve a two-year “transition” period in which it is ineligible for postseason play. Frankly, JMU is lucky it doesn’t have to apply a “trainee” badge on every uniform and stick a “student driver” sign on the back of the team bus, too.
But while they are not allowed to compete in the postseason quite yet, the Dukes’ on-field performance would suggest otherwise. Indeed, JMU has a good case as the best team from the so-called Group of 5 and, therefore, would otherwise be in position for a New Year’s Six Bowl — a bid that would net about $4 million for the Sun Belt, by the way.
Indeed, there are only three Group of 5 teams that currently own multiple victories over FPI top-60 opponents: Tulane, Wyoming and JMU. Only one of those teams is undefeated.
JMU also owns a road win over a Power 5 opponent (Virginia), has the No. 10 strength of record in the country (ahead of Oregon, Penn State or Notre Dame) and has won 11 straight games dating to last year.
But hey, if the NCAA says JMU should be ineligible, who are we to argue? It’s not like the NCAA has ever gotten something like that wrong before.
The 2025 MLB All-Star Home Run Derby is fast approaching — and the field is set.
Braves hometown hero Ronald Acuna Jr. became the first player to commit to the event, which will be held at Truist Park in Atlanta on July 14 (8 p.m. ET on ESPN). He was followed by MLB home run leader Cal Raleigh of the Seattle Mariners, James Wood of the Washington Nationals, Byron Buxton of the Minnesota Twins, Oneil Cruz of the Pittsburgh Pirates, Junior Caminero of the Tampa Bay Rays, Brent Rooker of the Athletics and Jazz Chisholm Jr. of the New York Yankees.
On Friday, however, Acuna was replaced by teammate Matt Olson.
With all the entrants announced, let’s break down their chances at taking home this year’s Derby prize.
Full All-Star Game coverage: How to watch, schedule, rosters, more
2025 home runs: 17 | Longest: 434 feet
Why he could win: Olson is a late replacement for Acuna as the home team’s representative at this year’s Derby. Apart from being the Braves’ first baseman, however, Olson also was born in Atlanta and grew up a Braves fan, giving him some extra motivation. The left-handed slugger led the majors in home runs in 2023 — his 54 round-trippers that season also set a franchise record — and he remains among the best in the game when it comes to exit velo and hard-hit rate.
Why he might not: The home-field advantage can also be a detriment if a player gets too hyped up in the first round. See Julio Rodriguez in Seattle in 2023, when he had a monster first round, with 41 home runs, but then tired out in the second round.
2025 home runs: 36 | Longest: 440 feet
Why he could win: It’s the season of Cal! The Mariners’ catcher is having one of the greatest slugging first halves in MLB history, as he’s been crushing mistakes all season . His easy raw power might be tailor-made for the Derby — he ranks in the 87th percentile in average exit velocity and delivers the ball, on average, at the optimal home run launch angle of 23 degrees. His calm demeanor might also be perfect for the contest as he won’t get too amped up.
Why he might not: He’s a catcher — and one who has carried a heavy workload, playing in all but one game this season. This contest is as much about stamina as anything, and whether Raleigh can carry his power through three rounds would be a concern. No catcher has ever won the Derby, with only Ivan Rodriguez back in 2005 even reaching the finals.
2025 home runs: 24 | Longest: 451 feet
Why he could win: He’s big, he’s strong, he’s young, he’s awesome, he might or might not be able to leap tall buildings in a single bound. This is the perfect opportunity for Wood to show his talent on the national stage, and he wouldn’t be the first young player to star in the Derby. He ranks in the 97th percentile in average exit velocity and 99th percentile in hard-hit rate, so he can still muscle the ball out in BP even if he slightly mishits it. His long arms might be viewed as a detriment, but remember the similarly tall Aaron Judge won in 2017.
Why he might not: His natural swing isn’t a pure uppercut — he has a pretty low average launch angle of just 6.2 degrees — so we’ll see how that plays in a rapid-fire session. In real games, his power is primarily to the opposite field, but in a Home Run Derby you can get more cheapies pulling the ball down the line.
2025 home runs: 20 | Longest: 479 feet
Why he could win: Buxton’s raw power remains as impressive as nearly any hitter in the game. He crushed a 479-foot home run earlier this season and has four others of at least 425 feet. Indeed, his “no doubter” percentage — home runs that would be out of all 30 parks based on distance — is 75%, the highest in the majors among players with more than a dozen home runs. His bat speed ranks in the 89th percentile. In other words, two tools that could translate to a BP lightning show.
Why he might not: Buxton is 31 and the Home Run Derby feels a little more like a younger man’s competition. Teoscar Hernandez did win last year at age 31, but before that, the last winner older than 29 was David Ortiz in 2010, and that was under much different rules than are used now.
2025 home runs: 16 | Longest: 463 feet
Why he could win: If you drew up a short list of players everyone wants to see in the Home Run Derby, Cruz would be near the top. He has the hardest-hit ball of the 2025 season, and the hardest ever tracked by Statcast, a 432-foot missile of a home run with an exit velocity of 122.9 mph. He also crushed a 463-foot home run in Anaheim that soared way beyond the trees in center field. With his elite bat speed — 100th percentile — Cruz has the ability to awe the crowd with a potentially all-time performance.
Why he might not: Like all first-time contestants, can he stay within himself and not get too caught up in the moment? He has a long swing, which will result in some huge blasts, but might not be the most efficient for a contest like this one, where the more swings a hitter can get in before the clock expires, the better.
2025 home runs: 23 | Longest: 425 feet
Why he could win: Although Caminero was one of the most hyped prospects entering 2024, everyone kind of forgot about him heading into this season since he didn’t immediately rip apart the majors as a rookie. In his first full season, however, he has showed off his big-time raw power — giving him a chance to become just the third player to reach 40 home runs in his age-21 season. He has perhaps the quickest bat in the majors, ranking in the 100th percentile in bat speed, and his top exit velocity ranks in the top 15. That could translate to a barrage of home runs.
Why he might not: In game action, Caminero does hit the ball on the ground quite often — in fact, he’s on pace to break Jim Rice’s record for double plays grounded into in a season. If he gets out of rhythm, that could lead to a lot of low line drives during the Derby instead of fly balls that clear the fences.
2025 home runs: 19 | Longest: 440 feet
Why he could win: The Athletics slugger has been one of the top power hitters in the majors for three seasons now and is on his way to a third straight 30-homer season. Rooker has plus bat speed and raw power, but his biggest strength is an optimal average launch angle (19 degrees in 2024, 15 degrees this season) that translates to home runs in game action. That natural swing could be picture perfect for the Home Run Derby. He also wasn’t shy about saying he wanted to participate — and maybe that bodes well for his chances.
Why he might not: Rooker might not have quite the same raw power as some of the other competitors, as he has just one home run longer than 425 feet in 2025. But that’s a little nitpicky, as 11 of his home runs have still gone 400-plus feet. He competed in the college home run derby in Omaha while at Mississippi State in 2016 and finished fourth.
2025 home runs: 17 | Longest: 442 feet
Why he could win: Chisholm might not be the most obvious name to participate, given his career high of 24 home runs, but he has belted 17 already in 2025 in his first 61 games after missing some time with an injury. He ranks among the MLB leaders in a couple of home run-related categories, ranking in the 96th percentile in expected slugging percentage and 98th percentile in barrel rate. His raw power might not match that of the other participants, but he’s a dead-pull hitter who has increased his launch angle this season, which might translate well to the Derby, even if he won’t be the guy hitting the longest home runs.
Why he might not: Most of the guys who have won this have been big, powerful sluggers. Chisholm is listed at 5-foot-11, 184 pounds, and you have to go back to Miguel Tejada in 2004 to find the last player under 6 foot to win.
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