Bellinger to Yankees? Ohtani to Dodgers? Best fits for the top 7 free agents
The day after the Texas Rangers won their first World Series title in franchise history, 130 players became free agents as baseball’s offseason season began.
While this year’s free-agent class doesn’t have as many big names as last year’s — when players such as Aaron Judge, Jacob deGrom, Justin Verlander, Carlos Correa, Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson were on the market — one of the best, and most coveted, players in the game, Shohei Ohtani, headlines this year’s group.
Who are the other free agents to watch as the hot stove season begins? We asked ESPN MLB experts Bradford Doolittle, Buster Olney, Jeff Passan and David Schoenfield to give their best fits — or the pairings they would most want to see — for the biggest free agents this season.
Shohei Ohtani, SP/DH (29 years old)
Doolittle: Los Angeles Dodgers. All along I’ve thought he’s going to sign with the Dodgers, and I suspect that is the strongest possibility. The Dodgers went a little light on maximizing their roster last year in order to stay flexible enough for this pursuit. So I’m going to go with them, though I could see the San Francisco Giants or Seattle Mariners, or even the Rangers, leaping into this race. But I just think the Dodgers are the perfect fit for Ohtani, with their history of working with starting pitchers, the availability that they have at the designated hitter slot and the fact they always win — not to mention the continued visibility for Ohtani in the L.A. market. In terms of money, there isn’t an offer that the Dodgers can’t match.
Olney: Dodgers. A friend of Ohtani said he believes Ohtani already knows where he wants to sign. He’ll go through the process — standing back as his agent negotiates and works to goose the final numbers — but in the end, Ohtani will drive this thing. So maybe the bidding doesn’t matter that much, so long as the team he wants to play for steps up with a decent offer. And my guess is that’ll be the Dodgers. One person in the Dodgers’ organization said president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman is “obsessed” with Ohtani and that Friedman will put L.A. in position to land him. Ohtani would make the most sense, at this moment, for the Rangers — they have a blank checkbook and the time to let him heal as a pitcher — but I think Ohtani picks Southern California, again.
Passan: Dodgers. If there is a chalk pick to make, this is it, though I offer it with a low degree of confidence because there are plenty of viable suitors for Ohtani. The New York Mets have the owner most willing to spend money. The Giants have the greatest need for a franchise player. The Boston Red Sox are looking to overhaul their roster, and adding the best player in baseball certainly would do that. The Rangers would love to add to their championship squad. The Toronto Blue Jays and Chicago Cubs have the money and the need. Even though Ohtani won’t pitch in 2024 because of elbow surgery, the sheer number of options will make him the first $500 million player in North American professional sports history.
Schoenfield: Rangers. Look, we don’t know yet if Ray Davis is the type of owner to push the pedal to the metal and go even higher on his payroll, but I just wanted to type out this potential lineup:
2B Marcus Semien
SS Corey Seager
DH Shohei Ohtani
RF Adolis Garcia
CF Evan Carter
3B Josh Jung
1B Nathaniel Lowe
C Jonah Heim
LF Wyatt Langford
That could be the first 1,000-run lineup since Cleveland in 1999. The Rangers would soar past the luxury tax in 2024, but Martin Perez ($19.65 million), Brad Miller ($4 million), Mitch Garver ($3.9 million), Ian Kennedy ($2.25 million), Robbie Grossman ($2 million) and Jake Odorizzi ($2 million) are off the books. That’s almost $34 million. Max Scherzer (they’re responsible for $23 million of his salary), Nathan Eovaldi ($17 million) and Andrew Heaney ($13 million) are free agents after 2024 (Eovaldi has a vesting option), so the Rangers will be looking for rotation options anyway for 2025, when Ohtani would pitch again. But that lineup would be absolutely spectacular.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto, SP (25)
Doolittle: Red Sox. Yamamoto is picking a perfect time to come over. Everyone got to see him in the World Baseball Classic, and that was impressive enough, but then he put up a 1.16 ERA over 171 innings in Japan this season while allowing just two home runs. He played in a league with a much lower homer rate than MLB, but that’s still sick. On top of all that, there are a lot of teams in need of a top-of-the-rotation starter. One of those teams is the Red Sox, whose new GM, Craig Breslow, is a former MLB hurler and whose rookie left fielder last season was Masataka Yoshida. As recently as 2022, Yoshida was the top hitter on the Orix Buffaloes. The top pitcher on that team? Yamamoto, of course.
Olney: New York Yankees. You might have heard that they had a down year in 2023, and if you look back at GM Brian Cashman’s history, whenever he gets into trouble, he has the same reflex — he grabs for pitching, perhaps believing it provides the best and quickest jolt. After a rough 2008, he coaxed Hal Steinbrenner into paying record-setting money for CC Sabathia, and then he did the same after the Red Sox won in 2018, landing Gerrit Cole. And my bet is that with the back end of the rotation thinned out, New York will make a move on Yamamoto.
Passan: Yankees. While it’s true the Yankees have a full rotation already, with Cole, Carlos Rodon, Nestor Cortes, Michael King and Clark Schmidt, the prospect of adding Yamamoto is too tempting to pass up. It’s not just that they’ve had great success with Japanese pitchers — such as Hiroki Kuroda and Masahiro Tanaka, the latter of whom is perhaps the most comparable to Yamamoto in age and success when he came to MLB — but the Yankees need to get younger, and they would be getting a prime-aged player without having to trade away any talent. Building around starting pitching is not the sort of strategy most modern teams embrace, but with a weak class of bats, it’s the best option for the Yankees.
Schoenfield: Mets. New president of baseball operations David Stearns played it down the middle in his introductory news conference, saying the goal is to make the team as competitive as possible in 2024 “while understanding that the long-term goal and the way to win a World Series is to have a truly sustainable competitiveness.” Yamamoto fits both criteria: He can help immediately — and the Mets need starters after trading Verlander and Max Scherzer — and he’s young enough to anchor the rotation for years to come. The Mets had great success with Kodai Senga in 2023, and Yamamoto is even better.
Doolittle: Yankees. They are the perfect fit, both for Bellinger’s swing and in terms of positional need. Bellinger is a lefty-swinging pull hitter, too aggressive to be called a pure take-and-rake guy, but the Yankees need some of that. He very much fits their mold, except that he also happens to be an exceptional athlete. You start an outfield with Bellinger and Judge, you’re most of the way there to an elite, two-way outfield (one eventually bolstered by the return of Jasson Dominguez, though perhaps not next season). Someday, when needed, Bellinger can shift back full time to first base and remain the right two-way player in the right ballpark. And on top of everything, Bellinger’s father, Clay, played for the Yankees during the Joe Torre era. Nothing but fit in this pairing.
Olney: Giants. He makes a ton of sense for the Yankees, for sure, as a left-handed hitter who has played and thrived in big markets, in L.A. and Chicago. They wouldn’t have to worry about whether he could handle the pressure of New York, and whether he’ll turn into another version of Joey Gallo. But he has had such a long history of peaks and valleys, and if the Yankees choose to dole out one big contract, my guess is it’ll go to a pitcher — their investment in a left-handed hitter will be more short term. The Giants want a star and are prepared to go above and beyond to make that happen, and they could sell Bellinger to their fans as a headliner, a former MVP taken away from their division rival. Bellinger goes for the biggest dollar here and in the end, that could be the team that has had trouble getting stars to take its money.
Passan: Giants. Farhan Zaidi, San Francisco’s president of baseball operations, has a history with Bellinger: He was the Dodgers’ general manager when Bellinger debuted and won Rookie of the Year. But this is less about shared experience than pure need. One look at the Giants’ offensive production last year and it’s clear they could use as much help as possible. After two brutal seasons, Bellinger spent this past season with the Cubs looking like his 2019 MVP self. Most telling: His strikeout rate dropped from 27.6% to a career-low 15.6%. In addition to his home runs, stolen bases and solid defense in center field and first base, Bellinger is the sort of all-around player around whom the Giants can build if they don’t win the Ohtani sweepstakes.
Schoenfield: Seattle Mariners. This is a long shot given their reluctance to sign free agents under president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto, but they have to be looking at the Rangers and thinking, “We have to spend some money if we want to compete with them” (and the Houston Astros). The Mariners need a left-handed, middle-of-the-order bat and, after ranking second in the majors in strikeouts, perhaps one that puts the ball in play. Bellinger did that in 2023, striking out just 15.7% of the time. He could replace Teoscar Hernandez in right, giving the Mariners a stellar defensive outfield, or play first base, allowing Ty France to slide into a DH role the Mariners have had trouble filling in recent years. Obviously, he comes with a large degree of risk given what he hit in 2021 and 2022, but some mechanical tweaks certainly helped, and that contact rate is a good sign for future productivity.
Doolittle: Philadelphia Phillies. Nola didn’t have the best platform season, though he did perform well enough in the playoffs. His track record remains top of the charts in terms of durability and volume, qualities that should attract plenty of attention in the market. His numbers were worse in 2021 than they were in 2023 but, in between, he enjoyed a 2022 season that was pretty close to Cy Young-caliber. So he has some variance in results even as the metrics on his pitches remain steady, meaning I think you pay him to be more a 2-3 pitcher than a 1-2, staff-saver type. And it’s hard to see a team where he fits better than the one with which he has been since being drafted seventh overall by the Phillies in 2014. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has said retaining Nola is a priority, and that’s a big reason I think he eventually stays put after a little spin around the free agent market.
Olney: Phillies. Owner John Middleton has demonstrated he’ll go above and beyond for the Phillies family, and Nola is family. Knowing that Zack Wheeler will be a free agent after next season will also nudge the Phillies’ offer to Nola, and I don’t think he’s worth more to any team than he is to the team that drafted him. I don’t think the offers in free agency will be as robust as maybe some expect, and in the end, the Phillies will pay him well to stay home.
Passan: Atlanta Braves. Atlanta will prioritize starting pitching in free agency — as it should, with Kyle Wright out for 2024 following shoulder surgery and Charlie Morton’s team option declined. Adding Nola to a rotation with Spencer Strider and Max Fried would make for a 1-2-3 punch worthy of the Braves’ lineup. Nola certainly fits what the Braves prioritize in starting pitchers: low walks, high strikeouts, lots of innings. And while his 2023 left plenty to be desired, his expected numbers weren’t nearly as rough as his 4.46 ERA. Nola has never been a stuff guy, so in order for him to age gracefully, he’ll have to rely on control and command. And going from a catcher with some of the worst framing numbers in baseball in J.T. Realmuto to a team with two elite framers in Sean Murphy and Travis d’Arnaud will only behoove him.
Schoenfield: Cubs. We know that when players reach free agency, the vast majority of them end up signing with a new team. It’s hard to imagine the Phillies not finding a way to re-sign Nola, but maybe they believe they have enough rotation depth with the emergence of Cristopher Sanchez — and they might be looking to pour big money into re-signing Zack Wheeler after 2024. The Cubs, meanwhile, are ready to make a big push for a division title after just missing a wild-card spot. Their rotation was 14th in the majors in ERA, and Marcus Stroman exercised his opt-out clause, so they have to replace him. Nola’s track record of health, durability and results makes him a pretty safe bet, even if he didn’t have his best season in 2023. That was mostly due to a spike in home run rate, and his strikeout-to-walk rate remains exceptional.
Doolittle: Milwaukee Brewers. Chapman is a fit for a lot of teams — the Cubs, Mariners, Blue Jays, perhaps Yankees. Because of that and a relative scarcity of top position players in this year’s free-agent class, he should make out well. Milwaukee is an upset pick, but I love the fit. Chapman would give the Brewers someone capable of hitting in the middle of the order while actually improving an already-airtight defense. The Brewers are rich in young position players, but Chapman wouldn’t really be blocking anyone in the system. I could see him playing across from Christian Yelich at some point if Yeli is moved to first base to make space for the Brewers’ surfeit of outfielders. As for the money, obviously there is a price point to which the Brewers aren’t likely to go. But a few years ago, they were ready to make a dual splash when they acquired (and paid) Yelich and Lorenzo Cain at the same time. This is a team trying to get over the hump, and landing Chapman is a good way to move in that direction.
Olney: Cubs. There is a ton of concern in the industry about Chapman’s slide after a hot start and his struggles against fastballs, so it’ll be interesting to see if he gets any big, big offers. Rival executives predicted Kris Bryant would get under $100 million, and he wound up getting more than double that number from the Colorado Rockies, making you wonder if there’s some team that’ll bet really big that Chapman’s offense comes back. His defense provides a strong baseline of performance, and if you added him to an infield with Swanson and Nico Hoerner, that would make free agent pitchers dream of taking the mound for the Cubs. I’m guessing Chicago.
Passan: Mets. Third base has been a bugaboo for New York since David Wright’s retirement, and with Brett Baty perhaps not the solution and no third basemen in the Mets’ system near big league-ready, Chapman solves an immediate and clear problem. Further, Stearns long prioritized infield defense in his previous job with Milwaukee, and for all of the warranted concerns about Chapman’s bat, his glove remains tip-top. The Mets have plenty of holes to fill, yes, and they’re not likely to go on a spending spree like they did last offseason. Chapman would provide a solid addition to a team that’s far closer to being good than its record last season indicated.
Schoenfield: Arizona Diamondbacks. I’d be wary of Chapman given his second-half slide (.663 OPS), concerns about declining bat speed (he had only one extra-base hit to the pull side against pitches 95 mph or faster) and defensive metrics that, while still above average, aren’t as elite as a few years ago. The one contending team with an obvious hole at third base is the Diamondbacks. They ranked 27th in the majors in OPS at third base and got little from Evan Longoria or backup Emmanuel Rivera in their postseason run (.200/.237/.255). They could slide top prospect Jordan Lawlar over there, but I don’t know why you would move him off shortstop (a trade of Geraldo Perdomo seems more likely if Lawlar is ready). Chapman fills a need and has averaged 3.8 WAR the past three seasons.
Doolittle: St. Louis Cardinals. I’m fascinated by the comparison of free agents Snell and Jordan Montgomery, two lefties who are almost the same age (Monty is 23 days younger) and go about things very differently. The Cardinals have said that landing veteran starting pitching is an offseason priority. While going after Montgomery, with whom they are so familiar, makes sense, Snell might be the better pursuit because he’s a pure power pitcher with the kind of strikeout rate the St. Louis staff desperately needs. Snell, coming off a likely Cy Young Award win, will have a robust market, and perhaps the Cardinals are something of an upset pick here. But I’m going with it.
Olney: Yeah, I agree with Brad: Cardinals. St. Louis is desperate for help and seems to be more likely to overpay and overlook possible concerns, like Snell’s walk rate. Other teams will be scared away by some of the peripheral numbers, but the Cardinals aren’t really in position to turn their noses up at a left-hander who has won one Cy Young Award and will soon win another — not when there are so many empty slots in their rotation.
Passan: Phillies. If Nola leaves, the Phillies are unlikely to go into next season without addressing their rotation. And while they could do so via the trade market — Tyler Glasnow would be a pretty great fit, as would Shane Bieber — getting someone like Snell, whose strikeout and weak-contact rates align well with the Phillies’ below-average defense, fits quite well. Add in the fact that the Phillies boast a deep bullpen, and it allays fears that Snell not going deep into games is problematic. Philadelphia isn’t scared of high-walk pitchers — especially if they have the stuff and the ability to limit damage like Snell does, with the second-highest strikeout rate and fourth-lowest homer rate among starters in 2023.
Schoenfield: Dodgers. They have seen plenty of Snell in recent years, and he has a 2.59 ERA against them in 13 regular-season starts — and that doesn’t include his infamous World Series start in 2020. With the news that Clayton Kershaw will undergo shoulder surgery and be sidelined until next summer (he’s a free agent but said he wants to keep pitching), the Dodgers’ rotation is in even more disarray than it was in the postseason. They need starters. Snell’s year-to-year inconsistency and durability can be frustrating, but the upside — one Cy Young Award with a second on the way — is so high that the Dodgers should be willing to take the gamble. Sure, Ohtani would be the dream, but you can make the case that with Ohtani’s pitching future uncertain, maybe they should spread their money out to a couple of starting pitchers this offseason.
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Jordan Montgomery, SP (30)
Doolittle: Rangers. Montgomery fit so well with Texas, and developed such a quick and close relationship with catcher Jonah Heim, it’s really hard to envision him wanting to leave the world champions. But of course, free agents do leave good spots all the time because it usually comes down to the best offer. The Rangers are willing to spend but the thing is, by next October they could have a rotation that has Scherzer, deGrom and Nate Eovaldi. That could push someone even as good as Montgomery, who pitched so well in this year’s postseason, into the fourth role. Also, even with the Mets picking up a sizable chunk of Scherzer’s tab, Texas is already committed to a lot of money in its rotation. But keeping Monty is too good to pass up. Let’s say the Rangers get back to October. They could have Scherzer, deGrom and Eovaldi lined up, with Monty and Jon Gray in hybrid roles behind them and — just maybe — Josh Hader waiting at the back of the bullpen. Get used to those parades, Arlington.
Olney: Rangers. For many years, the owner who was most willing to spend from his personal fortune — rather than within the revenue constraints of the team — was the Detroit Tigers’ Mike Ilitch, and then in recent years, that has been the San Diego Padres’ Peter Seidler and the Mets’ Steve Cohen. Quietly, the Rangers’ Ray Davis has joined that group. At 81 years old, he has decided he wants to win baseball championships, and he’s doing everything he can to make that happen. Like signing Marcus Semien and Corey Seager for a half-billion dollars. Like outbidding the rest of the industry for deGrom by about 80%. Like giving up a top prospect to deal for a future Hall of Famer in Scherzer at the deadline. Montgomery thrived with Texas after joining them from the Cardinals, and he seemed to really enjoy working with pitching coach Mike Maddux and manager Bruce Bochy, winning a championship. It seems inevitable that the Rangers will give the lefty whatever he needs to re-sign.
Passan: Red Sox. They want to win now, and while they have spent some in free agency in recent years — Masataka Yoshida and Trevor Story were nine-figure signings — they have no money committed to starting pitching beyond this season. Not only is Montgomery a veteran of the AL East, having come up with the Yankees, he more than proved himself a playoff-capable pitcher, helping lead the Rangers to a World Series title this year. Boston’s new chief baseball officer, Breslow, made his mark with the Cubs as their director of pitching, and he knows if the Red Sox are to improve, complementing their strong bullpen with an equally robust rotation is a good place to begin.
Schoenfield: Cincinnati Reds. I’d put the Rangers as the favorite here, too, but file this one under the category of, “They could really use him and it would be fun to see.” Yes, the Reds never spend in free agency (except for that one offseason when they signed Nick Castellanos and Mike Moustakas), but they have an exciting young core and a super inexpensive roster — one in need of a veteran guy like Montgomery who can chew up innings. Hunter Greene, Brandon Williamson, Andrew Abbott, Graham Ashcraft and Nick Lodolo all have intriguing upside, but none of those players have proven they can make it through a full season and remain effective at the same time. The Reds ranked 25th in rotation ERA and could use a stabilizing presence on the mound. Do I expect the Castellini family to spend? Of course not. But Reds fans can hope for a surprise.
Hard-throwing rookie Jacob Misiorowski is a National League All-Star replacement, giving the Milwaukee Brewers right-hander a chance to break Paul Skenes‘ record for the fewest big league appearances before playing in the Midsummer Classic.
Misiorowski was named Friday night to replace Chicago Cubs lefty Matthew Boyd, who will be unavailable for the All-Star Game on Tuesday night in Atlanta because he is scheduled to start Saturday at the New York Yankees.
The 23-year-old Misiorowski has made just five starts for the Brewers, going 4-1 with a 2.81 ERA while averaging 99.3 mph on his fastball, with 89 pitches that have reached 100 mph.
If he pitches at Truist Park, Misiorowski will make it consecutive years for a player to set the mark for fewest big league games before an All-Star showing.
Skenes, the Pittsburgh Pirates right-hander getting ready for his second All-Star appearance, had made 11 starts in the majors when he was chosen as the NL starter for last year’s All-Star Game at Texas. He pitched a scoreless inning.
“I’m speechless,” said a teary-eyed Misiorowski, who said he was given the news a few minutes before the Brewers’ 8-3 victory over Washington. “It’s awesome. It’s very unexpected and it’s an honor.”
Misiorowski is the 30th first-time All-Star and 16th replacement this year. There are now 80 total All-Stars.
“He’s impressive. He’s got some of the best stuff in the game right now, even though he’s a young pitcher,” said Yankees slugger Aaron Judge, who is a starting AL outfielder for his seventh All-Star nod. “He’s going to be a special pitcher in this game for a long time so I think he deserved it and it’s going be pretty cool for him and his family.”
Carlos Rodón, Carlos Estévez and Casey Mize were named replacement pitchers on the AL roster.
The New York Yankees‘ Rodón, an All-Star for the third time in five seasons, will replace teammate Max Fried for Tuesday’s game in Atlanta. Fried will be unavailable because he is scheduled to start Saturday against the Chicago Cubs.
In his final start before the All-Star game, Rodón allowed four hits and struck out eight in eight innings in an 11-0 victory over the Cubs.
“This one’s a little special for me,” said Rodón, an All-Star in 2021 and ’22 who was 3-8 in his first season with the Yankees two years ago before rebounding. “I wasn’t good when I first got here, and I just wanted to prove that I wasn’t to going to give up and just put my best foot forward and try to win as many games as I can.”
The Kansas City Royals‘ Estévez replaces Texas’ Jacob deGrom, who is scheduled to start at Houston on Saturday night. Estévez was a 2023 All-Star when he was with the Los Angeles Angels.
Mize takes the spot held by Boston‘s Garrett Crochet, who is scheduled to start Saturday against Tampa Bay. Mize gives the Tigers six All-Stars, most of any team and tied for the franchise record.
Royals third baseman Maikel Garcia will replace Tampa Bay‘s Brandon Lowe, who went on the injured list with left oblique tightness. The additions of Estévez and Garcia give the Royals four All-Stars, matching their 2024 total.
The Seattle Mariners announced center fielder Julio Rodríguez will not participate, and he was replaced by teammate Randy Arozarena. Rodríguez had been voted onto the AL roster via the players’ ballot. The Mariners, who have five All-Stars, said Rodríguez will use the break to “recuperate, rest and prepare for the second half.”
Arozarena is an All-Star for the second time. He started in left field for the AL two years ago, when he was with Tampa Bay. Arozarena was the runner-up to Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in the 2023 Home Run Derby.
Rays right-hander Drew Rasmussen, a first-time All-Star, is replacing Angels left-hander Yusei Kikuchi, who is scheduled to start Saturday night at Arizona. Rasmussen is 7-5 with a 2.82 ERA in 18 starts.
San Diego added a third NL All-Star reliever in lefty Adrián Morejón, who replaces Philadelphia starter Zack Wheeler. The Phillies’ right-hander is scheduled to start at San Diego on Saturday night. Morejón entered the weekend with a 1.71 ERA in 45 appearances.
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David Schoenfield
We’re past due to hand out some midseason grades, so let’s hand out some midseason grades.
As we pass the 90-game mark in the 2025 MLB season, my team of the first half isn’t the well-rounded Detroit Tigers, who do get our highest grade for owning MLB’s best record, or the explosive Chicago Cubs or Shohei Ohtani‘s Los Angeles Dodgers, but a team most baseball fans love to hate: the Houston Astros. They lost their two best players from last season and their best hitter has been injured — and they’re playing their best baseball since they won the 2022 World Series.
Let’s get to the grades. As always, we’re grading off preseason expectations, factoring in win-loss record and quality of performance, while looking at other positive performances and injuries.
Jump to a team:
AL East: BAL | BOS | NYY | TB | TOR
AL Central: CHW | CLE | DET | KC | MIN
AL West: ATH | HOU | LAA | SEA | TEX
NL East: ATL | MIA | NYM | PHI | WSH
NL Central: CHC | CIN | MIL | PIT | STL
NL West: ARI | COL | LAD | SD | SF
Tarik Skubal is obviously the headline act, but the Tigers are winning with impressive depth across the entire roster.
Javier Baez is putting together a remarkable comeback season after a couple of abysmal years and will become the first player to start an All-Star Game at both shortstop and in the outfield. Former No. 1 overall picks Casey Mize and Spencer Torkelson have put together their own comeback stories, while Riley Greene has matured into one of the game’s top power hitters.
Given their deep well of prospects and contributors at the MLB level, no team is better positioned than the Tigers to add significant help at the trade deadline.
I heard someone refer to them as the Zombie Astros, which feels apropos. Alex Bregman left as a free agent, they traded Kyle Tucker, Yordan Alvarez has been injured and has just three home runs, and the Jose Altuve experiment in left field predictably fizzled.
But here they are, fighting for the best record in the majors and holding a comfortable lead in the AL West. They’re getting star turns from Hunter Brown, Framber Valdez and Jeremy Pena, while the risky decision to start Cam Smith in the majors with very little minor league experience has paid off, as he has now become their cleanup hitter.
If we ignore the COVID-19 season, the Astros look on their way to an eighth straight division title.
This could be at least a half-grade higher based on everything that has gone right: Pete Crow-Armstrong‘s attention-grabbing breakout, Tucker doing everything expected after the big trade, Seiya Suzuki‘s monster power numbers and Matthew Boyd‘s All-Star turn in the rotation. The Cubs are on pace for their most wins since their World Series title season in 2016.
There have been a few hiccups, however, especially in the rotation with Justin Steele‘s season-ending injury and Ben Brown‘s inconsistency, plus rookie third baseman Matt Shaw has scuffled, and the bench has been weak aside from their backup catchers.
Still, this is a powerhouse lineup, and the Cubs will seek to improve their rotation at the deadline.
They just keep winning of late, going from 25-27 and seven games behind the Yankees on May 25 to taking over first place from the slumping Bronx Bombers, a remarkable turnaround over just 36 games. They went 27-9 over a 36-game stretch ending with their eighth win in a row on Sunday.
George Springer‘s recent surge has been fun to watch, a reminder of how good he was at his peak, and Addison Barger has been mashing over the past two months.
Some of the stats don’t add up to the Blue Jays being this good — they’ve barely outscored their opponents — but there might be more offense in the tank from the likes of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and a healthy Anthony Santander, and the bullpen, a soft spot, is the easiest area to upgrade.
Their success is best summed up by the fact that Freddy Peralta is their lone All-Star, but they have a whole bunch of players who have contributed between 1 and 2 WAR.
Brandon Woodruff looked good Sunday in his first start in nearly two years, so that could be a huge boost for the second half.
I’m curious to see how Jackson Chourio performs as well. While his counting stats — extra-base hits, RBIs — are fine, his triple-slash line remains below last season, especially his OBP. He had a huge second half in 2024 (.310/.363/.552), and if he does that again, the Brewers could find themselves back in the postseason for the seventh time in eight seasons.
The Rays started off slow, with a losing record through the end of April, but then went 33-22 in May and June to claw back into the AL East race — as the Rays usually do, last year being the recent exception.
Two key performers have been All-Star third baseman Junior Caminero, who has a chance to become just the third player to hit 40 home runs in his age-21 season, and All-Star first baseman Jonathan Aranda.
Due to the league wanting the Rays to play more home games early in the season, the July and August slate will be very road-heavy, so we’ll see how the Rays adapt to a difficult two-month stretch, especially since their pitching isn’t quite as deep as it has been in other seasons.
No, they’re not going to be the greatest team of all time. But they might win 100 games — even though Blake Snell and Roki Sasaki, their huge offseason acquisitions, have combined for just two wins in 10 starts.
The lineup, of course, has been terrific, with Ohtani leading the NL in several categories and Will Smith leading the batting race. By wRC+, it’s been the best offense in Dodgers history.
If they can get some combo of Snell, Sasaki and Tyler Glasnow healthy, plus Ohtani eventually ramped up to a bigger workload on the mound, the Dodgers still loom as World Series favorites.
They are on pace for 95 wins, mainly on the strength of Zack Wheeler, Ranger Suarez and Cristopher Sanchez, who are a combined 23-7 with 11.8 WAR. Jesus Luzardo‘s ERA is bloated due to that two-start stretch when he allowed 20 runs, but he has otherwise been solid as well.
But, overall, it hasn’t always been the smoothest of treks. The bullpen has imploded a few times and the offense has lacked power aside from Kyle Schwarber. Bryce Harper is back after missing three weeks, and they need to get his bat going. Look for some bullpen additions at the trade deadline — and perhaps an outfielder as well.
The Cardinals have been a minor surprise — perhaps even to the Cardinals themselves. St. Louis was viewing this as a rebuilding year of sorts — not that the Cardinals ever hit rock bottom and start completely over. They had a hot May, winning 12 of 13 at one point, but the offense has been fading of late, with those three straight shutout losses to Pittsburgh and six shutout losses since June 25.
The starting rotation doesn’t generate a lot of swing and miss, with both Erick Fedde and Miles Mikolas seeing their ERAs starting to climb. Brendan Donovan is the team’s only All-Star rep, and that kind of sums up this team: solid but without any star power. That might foretell a second-half fade.
All-Star starting pitchers Logan Webb and Robbie Ray, plus a dominant bullpen, have led the way, although after starting 12-4, the Giants have basically been a .500 team for close to three months now. Rafael Devers hasn’t yet ignited the offense since coming over from Boston, and the Giants have lost four 1-0 games.
These final three games at home against the Dodgers before the All-Star break will be a crucial series, as Los Angeles has slowly pulled away in the NL West.
This was an “A-plus” through June 12, when the Mets were 45-24 and owned the best record in baseball, even though Juan Soto hadn’t gotten hot. Soto finally got going in June, but the pitching collapsed, and the Mets went through a disastrous 1-10 stretch.
The rotation injuries have piled up, exacerbating the lack of bullpen depth. Recent games have been started by Justin Hagenman (who had a 6.21 ERA in Triple-A), journeyman reliever Chris Devenski, Paul Blackburn (7.71 ERA) and Frankie Montas, who has had to start even though he’s clearly not throwing the ball well. The Mets need to get the rotation healthy, but also could use more offense from Mark Vientos and their catchers (Francisco Alvarez was demoted to Triple-A).
At times it has felt like Cal Raleigh has been a one-man team with his record-breaking first half. But he will be joined on the All-Star squad by starting pitcher Bryan Woo, closer Andres Munoz and center fielder Julio Rodriguez, who made it on the strength of his defense, as his offense has been a disappointment.
The offense has been one of the best in the majors on the road, but the rotation has been nowhere near as effective as the past couple of seasons, with George Kirby, Logan Gilbert and Bryce Miller all missing time with injuries. They just shut out the Pirates three games in a row, so maybe that will get the rotation on a roll.
They’re just out of the wild-card picture while hanging around .500, so we give them a decent grade since that exceeds preseason expectations. It feels like a little bit of a mirage given their run differential — their record in one-run games (good) versus their record in blowout games (not good) — and various holes across the lineup and pitching staff.
But they’ve done two things to keep them in the race. One, they hit a lot of home runs. Two, they’re the only team in the majors to use just five starting pitchers. The rotation hasn’t been stellar, but it’s been stable.
The Padres are probably fortunate to be where they are, given some of their issues. As expected, the offensive depth has been a problem.
Not as expected, Dylan Cease has struggled while Michael King‘s injury after a strong start has left them without last year’s dynamic 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation (although Nick Pivetta has been one of the best signings of the offseason). Yu Darvish just made his season debut Monday, so hopefully he’ll provide a lift.
The Padres haven’t played well against the better teams, including a 2-5 record against the Dodgers, but they did clean up against the Athletics, Rockies and Pirates, going 16-2 against those three teams.
For now, the Reds are stuck in neutral. Leave out 2022, when they lost 100 games, and it’s otherwise been a string of .500-ish seasons: 31-29 in 2020, 83-79 in 2021, 82-80 in 2023, 77-85 in 2024 and now a similar record so far in 2025.
The hope was that Terry Francona would be a difference-maker. Maybe that will play out down the stretch, but the best hope is to get the rotation clicking on all cylinders at the same time. That means Andrew Abbott continuing his breakout performance, plus getting Hunter Greene healthy again and rookie Chase Burns to live up to the hype after a couple of shaky outings following an impressive MLB debut.
Throw in Nick Lodolo and solid Nick Martinez and Brady Singer, and this group can be good enough to pitch the Reds to their first full-season playoff appearance since 2013.
The Yankees have hit their annual midseason swoon — which has been subject to much intense analysis from their disgruntled fans — and that opening weekend sweep of the Brewers, when the Yankees’ torpedo bats were the big story in baseball, now seems long ago.
Going from seven up to three back in such a short time is a disaster — but not disastrous. Nonetheless, the Yankees will have to do some hard-core self-evaluation heading to the trade deadline.
The offense wasn’t going to be as good as it was in April, when Paul Goldschmidt, Trent Grisham and Ben Rice were all playing over their heads. So, do they need a hitter? Or with Clarke Schmidt now likely joining Gerrit Cole as a Tommy John casualty, do they need a starting pitcher? Or both?
From the book of “things we didn’t expect,” page 547: The Marlins are averaging more runs per game than the Orioles, Padres, Braves and Rangers, to name a few teams. They’re averaging almost as many runs per game as the Mets, and last time we checked, the Marlins weren’t the team to give Soto $765 million.
An eight-game winning streak at the end of June has the Marlins going toe-to-toe with the Braves for third place in the NL East even though the starting rotation has been a mess, with Sandy Alcantara on track to become just the fourth qualified pitcher with an ERA over 7.00.
Heading into the season, I thought that if any team was going to challenge the Dodgers in the NL West, it would be the Diamondbacks. The offense has once again been one of the best in the majors, but the pitching issues have been painful.
After the aggressive move to sign Corbin Burnes, he went down with Tommy John surgery after 11 starts. Meanwhile, Zac Gallen, Eduardo Rodriguez and Brandon Pfaadt each have an ERA on the wrong side of 5.00. Rodriguez was better in June before a shellacking on July 4, while Gallen remains homer-prone, so it’s hard to tell if improvement is on the horizon. Their playoff odds are hovering just under 20%, so there’s a chance, but they need to get red-hot like they did last July and August.
It feels like it has been more soap opera than baseball season in Boston, with the Devers drama finally ending with the shocking trade with the Giants.
If you give added weight that this is the Red Sox, a team that should be operating with the big boys in both budget and aspirations and instead seemed to only want to dump Devers’ contract, then feel free to lower this grade a couple of notches, even if the Red Sox are close in the wild-card standings.
On the field, the heralded rookie trio of Kristian Campbell, Roman Anthony and Marcelo Mayer hasn’t exactly clicked, with Campbell returning to the minors after posting a .902 OPS in April. A big test will come out of the All-Star break, when they play the Cubs, Phillies, Dodgers, Twins and Astros in a tough 15-game stretch.
After last season’s surprise playoff appearance, it’s been a frustrating 2025 — although I’m not sure this result is necessarily a surprise.
There were concerns about the offense heading into the season and those concerns have proven correct. They were getting no production from their outfield, so they rushed Jac Caglianone to the majors to much hype, but he has struggled and might need a reset back in Triple-A. Even Bobby Witt Jr., as good as he has been (on pace for 7.5 WAR), has seen his OPS drop 140 points.
On the bright side, Kris Bubic emerged as an All-Star starter and Noah Cameron has filled in nicely for the injured Cole Ragans, so maybe they trade a starter for some offense.
Coming off a catastrophic 2024 season, nobody was expecting anything from the White Sox. Indeed, another 121-loss season loomed as a possibility. While they’re on pace to lose 100 again, they’ve at least played more competitive baseball thanks to their pitching.
Rookie starters Shane Smith and Sean Burke have shown promise, while rookie position players Kyle Teel, Edgar Quero and now Colson Montgomery are getting their initial taste of the majors.
There has been the mix of calamity: Luis Robert Jr. has been unproductive and is probably now untradable, and former No. 3 overall pick Andrew Vaughn hit .189 and was traded to the Brewers.
The Twins are one organization that might like a do-over of the past five seasons. It feels like they’ve had the most talent in the division, but all they’ve done is squeeze out one soft division title in 2023. Now, the Tigers have passed them in talent and other factors, such as payroll flexibility.
There’s still time for the Twins to turn things around in 2025, but outside of that wonderful 13-game winning streak, they haven’t played winning baseball.
Overall, it’s been yet another bad season, despite Paul Skenes‘ brilliance. Really, do we talk enough about him? Yes, we do talk about him, but he has a 1.95 ERA through his first 42 career starts. Incredible.
Here’s an amazing thing about baseball. The Pirates are not a good team, but they recently put together one of the best six-game stretches in history. That’s not stretching the description. First, they swept the Mets — a good team — by scores of 9-1, 9-2 and 12-1. Then they swept the Cardinals — a good team — with three shutouts, 7-0, 1-0 and 5-0. They became the first team since at least 1901 to score 43 runs or more and allow four runs or fewer in a six-game stretch. And then they promptly got shut out three games in a row, making them the first to win three straight shutouts and then lose three straight shutouts.
Eighteen of our 28 voters picked them to win the AL West before the season, but it’s looking more and more like the 2023 World Series might be a stone-cold fluke in the middle of a string of losing seasons. That year, nearly everyone in the lineup had a career year at the plate, and the pitching got hot at the right time.
This year’s Rangers, though, have struggled to score runs, and while some have pointed to the offensive environment at Globe Life Field, they’re near the bottom in road OPS as well. It’s been fun seeing Jacob deGrom back at a dominating level, and Nathan Eovaldi should have been an All-Star.
Put it this way: If the Rangers can somehow squeeze into the postseason, you don’t want to face the Rangers in a short series. Indeed, if any team looms as an October upset special, it might be the Rangers.
The Nationals received superlative first-half performances from James Wood and MacKenzie Gore, while CJ Abrams is on the way to his best season. But there remains a lack of overall organizational progress, which finally led to the firings on Sunday of longtime GM Mike Rizzo and longtime manager Dave Martinez. A 7-19 record in June sealed their fate, as the rotation has been bad and the bullpen arguably the worst in baseball.
Until the Nationals figure out how to improve their pitching — or, better yet, find an owner who wants to win — they will be stuck going nowhere.
That fell apart in a hurry. Sunday’s loss was Cleveland’s 10th in a row, a stretch that remarkably included five shutouts. Indeed, the Guardians have now been shut out 11 times; the franchise record in the post-dead-ball-era (since 1920) is 20 shutouts in 1968.
There’s nothing worse than watching a team that can’t score runs, so that tells you how exciting the Guardians have been. Last year, the Guardians hit exceptionally well with runners in scoring position, keeping afloat what was otherwise a mediocre offense. That hasn’t happened in 2025 (trading Josh Naylor didn’t help either). Throw in some predictable regression from the bullpen, and this season looks lost.
We can’t give this a complete failing grade due to the emergence of All-Star shortstop Jacob Wilson (the Athletics’ first All-Star starter since Josh Donaldson in 2014) and slugging first baseman Nick Kurtz, who have a chance to finish 1-2 in the Rookie of the Year voting. Plus, we have Denzel Clarke‘s circus catches in center field.
But otherwise? Ugh. The Sacramento gamble already looks like a disaster, three months into a three-year stay. The team is drawing well below Sutter Health Park’s 14,000-seat capacity, with many recent games drawing under 10,000 fans. Luis Severino bashed the small crowds and the lack of air-conditioning.
The A’s had a groundbreaking ceremony for their new park in Vegas, renting heavy construction equipment as background props. Maybe they should have spent that money on more pitching help.
Based on preseason expectations, the Braves have clearly been the biggest disappointment in the National League — fighting the Orioles for most disappointing overall.
What’s gone wrong? They haven’t scored runs, as the offense continues its remarkable fade from a record-setting performance just two seasons ago. The collapses of Michael Harris II and Ozzie Albies lead the way, with lack of production at shortstop and left field playing a big role as well. Closer Raisel Iglesias has struggled, and the team is 11-22 in one-run games. Spencer Strider hasn’t yet reached his pre-injury level and Reynaldo Lopez made just one start before going down.
The Braves haven’t missed the playoffs since 2017, but that run is clearly in jeopardy.
The Orioles have a similar record to the Braves but have played much worse, including losses of 24-2, 19-5, 15-3 and two separate 9-0 shutouts.
They will spend the trade deadline dealing away as many of their impending free agents as possible, and then do a lot of soul-searching heading into the offseason. After making the playoffs in 2023 and 2024, will this season just be a blip? While the pitching struggles aren’t necessarily a big surprise, what has happened to the offense? Are some of their young players prospects or suspects?
After two months of Cleveland Spiders-level baseball, it would be easy to make fun of the Rockies. Especially since they recently announced Walker Monfort — son of the owner — was promoted to executive VP and will replace outgoing president and COO Greg Feasel.
On the other hand, the Rockies are doing something right: They just drew 121,000 for a three-game series against the White Sox.
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Jesse Rogers
CHICAGO — Former White Sox lefty Mark Buehrle was forever immortalized inside Rate Field as the team unveiled a statue in his honor Friday.
Buehrle, 46, played 16 years in the majors, including the first 12 with the White Sox, who he helped win a World Series in 2005. He won 214 games and pitched 200 innings or more in 14 consecutive seasons from 2001 to 2014.
“I can’t put it into words,” Buehrle said after the unveiling. “You don’t play the game for any of this. You never think of number retirements or statues. I can’t even wrap my head around it. It doesn’t make sense.”
The statue is an action shot of him throwing a pitch.
His wife and kids were in attendance and helped pull off the cover to unveil the statue while his 2005 teammates looked on. The event kicked off a weekend reunion for the World Series team which went 11-1 in the postseason, beating the Houston Astros in four games to take home the title.
Buehrle was a five-time All-Star and four-time Gold Glove winner, finishing fifth in Cy Young voting in 2005.
“Well-deserved,” former right fielder Jermaine Dye said of the statue. “Great teammate. Great leader. Definitely someone you want on a ballclub to lead a pitching staff.”
The White Sox rotation — led by Buehrle — threw four complete games in the ALCS against the Boston Red Sox in 2005, missing a fifth complete game by two-thirds of an inning. It’s an unheard of accomplishment in today’s game since starters infrequently go the distance.
Besides being an innings-eater on the mound, Buehrle was a fast worker — a favorite trait of his catcher, A.J Pierzynski. And he wasn’t someone who threw a lot of different pitches. He caught it and threw it without much input from behind the plate.
“He was fast,” Pierzynski said. “We had Jermaine Dye calling pitches from right field some games. We did come crazy things you wouldn’t recommend to people to do nowadays.”
Buehrle is a notoriously low-key guy who hates the spotlight but even he was moved by the team’s decision to honor him with a statue, which joins former slugger Harold Baines in the right-field concourse.
“I joked with him when I saw him,” Dye said. “I told him ‘Man it takes you getting a statue to get you out of the house.'”
Buehrle added: “I was literally nervous as can be today. This is not my comfort zone but by no means am I taking it lightly. This is incredible.”
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