Bellinger to Yankees? Ohtani to Dodgers? Best fits for the top 7 free agents
The day after the Texas Rangers won their first World Series title in franchise history, 130 players became free agents as baseball’s offseason season began.
While this year’s free-agent class doesn’t have as many big names as last year’s — when players such as Aaron Judge, Jacob deGrom, Justin Verlander, Carlos Correa, Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson were on the market — one of the best, and most coveted, players in the game, Shohei Ohtani, headlines this year’s group.
Who are the other free agents to watch as the hot stove season begins? We asked ESPN MLB experts Bradford Doolittle, Buster Olney, Jeff Passan and David Schoenfield to give their best fits — or the pairings they would most want to see — for the biggest free agents this season.
Shohei Ohtani, SP/DH (29 years old)
Doolittle: Los Angeles Dodgers. All along I’ve thought he’s going to sign with the Dodgers, and I suspect that is the strongest possibility. The Dodgers went a little light on maximizing their roster last year in order to stay flexible enough for this pursuit. So I’m going to go with them, though I could see the San Francisco Giants or Seattle Mariners, or even the Rangers, leaping into this race. But I just think the Dodgers are the perfect fit for Ohtani, with their history of working with starting pitchers, the availability that they have at the designated hitter slot and the fact they always win — not to mention the continued visibility for Ohtani in the L.A. market. In terms of money, there isn’t an offer that the Dodgers can’t match.
Olney: Dodgers. A friend of Ohtani said he believes Ohtani already knows where he wants to sign. He’ll go through the process — standing back as his agent negotiates and works to goose the final numbers — but in the end, Ohtani will drive this thing. So maybe the bidding doesn’t matter that much, so long as the team he wants to play for steps up with a decent offer. And my guess is that’ll be the Dodgers. One person in the Dodgers’ organization said president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman is “obsessed” with Ohtani and that Friedman will put L.A. in position to land him. Ohtani would make the most sense, at this moment, for the Rangers — they have a blank checkbook and the time to let him heal as a pitcher — but I think Ohtani picks Southern California, again.
Passan: Dodgers. If there is a chalk pick to make, this is it, though I offer it with a low degree of confidence because there are plenty of viable suitors for Ohtani. The New York Mets have the owner most willing to spend money. The Giants have the greatest need for a franchise player. The Boston Red Sox are looking to overhaul their roster, and adding the best player in baseball certainly would do that. The Rangers would love to add to their championship squad. The Toronto Blue Jays and Chicago Cubs have the money and the need. Even though Ohtani won’t pitch in 2024 because of elbow surgery, the sheer number of options will make him the first $500 million player in North American professional sports history.
Schoenfield: Rangers. Look, we don’t know yet if Ray Davis is the type of owner to push the pedal to the metal and go even higher on his payroll, but I just wanted to type out this potential lineup:
2B Marcus Semien
SS Corey Seager
DH Shohei Ohtani
RF Adolis Garcia
CF Evan Carter
3B Josh Jung
1B Nathaniel Lowe
C Jonah Heim
LF Wyatt Langford
That could be the first 1,000-run lineup since Cleveland in 1999. The Rangers would soar past the luxury tax in 2024, but Martin Perez ($19.65 million), Brad Miller ($4 million), Mitch Garver ($3.9 million), Ian Kennedy ($2.25 million), Robbie Grossman ($2 million) and Jake Odorizzi ($2 million) are off the books. That’s almost $34 million. Max Scherzer (they’re responsible for $23 million of his salary), Nathan Eovaldi ($17 million) and Andrew Heaney ($13 million) are free agents after 2024 (Eovaldi has a vesting option), so the Rangers will be looking for rotation options anyway for 2025, when Ohtani would pitch again. But that lineup would be absolutely spectacular.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto, SP (25)
Doolittle: Red Sox. Yamamoto is picking a perfect time to come over. Everyone got to see him in the World Baseball Classic, and that was impressive enough, but then he put up a 1.16 ERA over 171 innings in Japan this season while allowing just two home runs. He played in a league with a much lower homer rate than MLB, but that’s still sick. On top of all that, there are a lot of teams in need of a top-of-the-rotation starter. One of those teams is the Red Sox, whose new GM, Craig Breslow, is a former MLB hurler and whose rookie left fielder last season was Masataka Yoshida. As recently as 2022, Yoshida was the top hitter on the Orix Buffaloes. The top pitcher on that team? Yamamoto, of course.
Olney: New York Yankees. You might have heard that they had a down year in 2023, and if you look back at GM Brian Cashman’s history, whenever he gets into trouble, he has the same reflex — he grabs for pitching, perhaps believing it provides the best and quickest jolt. After a rough 2008, he coaxed Hal Steinbrenner into paying record-setting money for CC Sabathia, and then he did the same after the Red Sox won in 2018, landing Gerrit Cole. And my bet is that with the back end of the rotation thinned out, New York will make a move on Yamamoto.
Passan: Yankees. While it’s true the Yankees have a full rotation already, with Cole, Carlos Rodon, Nestor Cortes, Michael King and Clark Schmidt, the prospect of adding Yamamoto is too tempting to pass up. It’s not just that they’ve had great success with Japanese pitchers — such as Hiroki Kuroda and Masahiro Tanaka, the latter of whom is perhaps the most comparable to Yamamoto in age and success when he came to MLB — but the Yankees need to get younger, and they would be getting a prime-aged player without having to trade away any talent. Building around starting pitching is not the sort of strategy most modern teams embrace, but with a weak class of bats, it’s the best option for the Yankees.
Schoenfield: Mets. New president of baseball operations David Stearns played it down the middle in his introductory news conference, saying the goal is to make the team as competitive as possible in 2024 “while understanding that the long-term goal and the way to win a World Series is to have a truly sustainable competitiveness.” Yamamoto fits both criteria: He can help immediately — and the Mets need starters after trading Verlander and Max Scherzer — and he’s young enough to anchor the rotation for years to come. The Mets had great success with Kodai Senga in 2023, and Yamamoto is even better.
Doolittle: Yankees. They are the perfect fit, both for Bellinger’s swing and in terms of positional need. Bellinger is a lefty-swinging pull hitter, too aggressive to be called a pure take-and-rake guy, but the Yankees need some of that. He very much fits their mold, except that he also happens to be an exceptional athlete. You start an outfield with Bellinger and Judge, you’re most of the way there to an elite, two-way outfield (one eventually bolstered by the return of Jasson Dominguez, though perhaps not next season). Someday, when needed, Bellinger can shift back full time to first base and remain the right two-way player in the right ballpark. And on top of everything, Bellinger’s father, Clay, played for the Yankees during the Joe Torre era. Nothing but fit in this pairing.
Olney: Giants. He makes a ton of sense for the Yankees, for sure, as a left-handed hitter who has played and thrived in big markets, in L.A. and Chicago. They wouldn’t have to worry about whether he could handle the pressure of New York, and whether he’ll turn into another version of Joey Gallo. But he has had such a long history of peaks and valleys, and if the Yankees choose to dole out one big contract, my guess is it’ll go to a pitcher — their investment in a left-handed hitter will be more short term. The Giants want a star and are prepared to go above and beyond to make that happen, and they could sell Bellinger to their fans as a headliner, a former MVP taken away from their division rival. Bellinger goes for the biggest dollar here and in the end, that could be the team that has had trouble getting stars to take its money.
Passan: Giants. Farhan Zaidi, San Francisco’s president of baseball operations, has a history with Bellinger: He was the Dodgers’ general manager when Bellinger debuted and won Rookie of the Year. But this is less about shared experience than pure need. One look at the Giants’ offensive production last year and it’s clear they could use as much help as possible. After two brutal seasons, Bellinger spent this past season with the Cubs looking like his 2019 MVP self. Most telling: His strikeout rate dropped from 27.6% to a career-low 15.6%. In addition to his home runs, stolen bases and solid defense in center field and first base, Bellinger is the sort of all-around player around whom the Giants can build if they don’t win the Ohtani sweepstakes.
Schoenfield: Seattle Mariners. This is a long shot given their reluctance to sign free agents under president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto, but they have to be looking at the Rangers and thinking, “We have to spend some money if we want to compete with them” (and the Houston Astros). The Mariners need a left-handed, middle-of-the-order bat and, after ranking second in the majors in strikeouts, perhaps one that puts the ball in play. Bellinger did that in 2023, striking out just 15.7% of the time. He could replace Teoscar Hernandez in right, giving the Mariners a stellar defensive outfield, or play first base, allowing Ty France to slide into a DH role the Mariners have had trouble filling in recent years. Obviously, he comes with a large degree of risk given what he hit in 2021 and 2022, but some mechanical tweaks certainly helped, and that contact rate is a good sign for future productivity.
Doolittle: Philadelphia Phillies. Nola didn’t have the best platform season, though he did perform well enough in the playoffs. His track record remains top of the charts in terms of durability and volume, qualities that should attract plenty of attention in the market. His numbers were worse in 2021 than they were in 2023 but, in between, he enjoyed a 2022 season that was pretty close to Cy Young-caliber. So he has some variance in results even as the metrics on his pitches remain steady, meaning I think you pay him to be more a 2-3 pitcher than a 1-2, staff-saver type. And it’s hard to see a team where he fits better than the one with which he has been since being drafted seventh overall by the Phillies in 2014. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has said retaining Nola is a priority, and that’s a big reason I think he eventually stays put after a little spin around the free agent market.
Olney: Phillies. Owner John Middleton has demonstrated he’ll go above and beyond for the Phillies family, and Nola is family. Knowing that Zack Wheeler will be a free agent after next season will also nudge the Phillies’ offer to Nola, and I don’t think he’s worth more to any team than he is to the team that drafted him. I don’t think the offers in free agency will be as robust as maybe some expect, and in the end, the Phillies will pay him well to stay home.
Passan: Atlanta Braves. Atlanta will prioritize starting pitching in free agency — as it should, with Kyle Wright out for 2024 following shoulder surgery and Charlie Morton’s team option declined. Adding Nola to a rotation with Spencer Strider and Max Fried would make for a 1-2-3 punch worthy of the Braves’ lineup. Nola certainly fits what the Braves prioritize in starting pitchers: low walks, high strikeouts, lots of innings. And while his 2023 left plenty to be desired, his expected numbers weren’t nearly as rough as his 4.46 ERA. Nola has never been a stuff guy, so in order for him to age gracefully, he’ll have to rely on control and command. And going from a catcher with some of the worst framing numbers in baseball in J.T. Realmuto to a team with two elite framers in Sean Murphy and Travis d’Arnaud will only behoove him.
Schoenfield: Cubs. We know that when players reach free agency, the vast majority of them end up signing with a new team. It’s hard to imagine the Phillies not finding a way to re-sign Nola, but maybe they believe they have enough rotation depth with the emergence of Cristopher Sanchez — and they might be looking to pour big money into re-signing Zack Wheeler after 2024. The Cubs, meanwhile, are ready to make a big push for a division title after just missing a wild-card spot. Their rotation was 14th in the majors in ERA, and Marcus Stroman exercised his opt-out clause, so they have to replace him. Nola’s track record of health, durability and results makes him a pretty safe bet, even if he didn’t have his best season in 2023. That was mostly due to a spike in home run rate, and his strikeout-to-walk rate remains exceptional.
Doolittle: Milwaukee Brewers. Chapman is a fit for a lot of teams — the Cubs, Mariners, Blue Jays, perhaps Yankees. Because of that and a relative scarcity of top position players in this year’s free-agent class, he should make out well. Milwaukee is an upset pick, but I love the fit. Chapman would give the Brewers someone capable of hitting in the middle of the order while actually improving an already-airtight defense. The Brewers are rich in young position players, but Chapman wouldn’t really be blocking anyone in the system. I could see him playing across from Christian Yelich at some point if Yeli is moved to first base to make space for the Brewers’ surfeit of outfielders. As for the money, obviously there is a price point to which the Brewers aren’t likely to go. But a few years ago, they were ready to make a dual splash when they acquired (and paid) Yelich and Lorenzo Cain at the same time. This is a team trying to get over the hump, and landing Chapman is a good way to move in that direction.
Olney: Cubs. There is a ton of concern in the industry about Chapman’s slide after a hot start and his struggles against fastballs, so it’ll be interesting to see if he gets any big, big offers. Rival executives predicted Kris Bryant would get under $100 million, and he wound up getting more than double that number from the Colorado Rockies, making you wonder if there’s some team that’ll bet really big that Chapman’s offense comes back. His defense provides a strong baseline of performance, and if you added him to an infield with Swanson and Nico Hoerner, that would make free agent pitchers dream of taking the mound for the Cubs. I’m guessing Chicago.
Passan: Mets. Third base has been a bugaboo for New York since David Wright’s retirement, and with Brett Baty perhaps not the solution and no third basemen in the Mets’ system near big league-ready, Chapman solves an immediate and clear problem. Further, Stearns long prioritized infield defense in his previous job with Milwaukee, and for all of the warranted concerns about Chapman’s bat, his glove remains tip-top. The Mets have plenty of holes to fill, yes, and they’re not likely to go on a spending spree like they did last offseason. Chapman would provide a solid addition to a team that’s far closer to being good than its record last season indicated.
Schoenfield: Arizona Diamondbacks. I’d be wary of Chapman given his second-half slide (.663 OPS), concerns about declining bat speed (he had only one extra-base hit to the pull side against pitches 95 mph or faster) and defensive metrics that, while still above average, aren’t as elite as a few years ago. The one contending team with an obvious hole at third base is the Diamondbacks. They ranked 27th in the majors in OPS at third base and got little from Evan Longoria or backup Emmanuel Rivera in their postseason run (.200/.237/.255). They could slide top prospect Jordan Lawlar over there, but I don’t know why you would move him off shortstop (a trade of Geraldo Perdomo seems more likely if Lawlar is ready). Chapman fills a need and has averaged 3.8 WAR the past three seasons.
Doolittle: St. Louis Cardinals. I’m fascinated by the comparison of free agents Snell and Jordan Montgomery, two lefties who are almost the same age (Monty is 23 days younger) and go about things very differently. The Cardinals have said that landing veteran starting pitching is an offseason priority. While going after Montgomery, with whom they are so familiar, makes sense, Snell might be the better pursuit because he’s a pure power pitcher with the kind of strikeout rate the St. Louis staff desperately needs. Snell, coming off a likely Cy Young Award win, will have a robust market, and perhaps the Cardinals are something of an upset pick here. But I’m going with it.
Olney: Yeah, I agree with Brad: Cardinals. St. Louis is desperate for help and seems to be more likely to overpay and overlook possible concerns, like Snell’s walk rate. Other teams will be scared away by some of the peripheral numbers, but the Cardinals aren’t really in position to turn their noses up at a left-hander who has won one Cy Young Award and will soon win another — not when there are so many empty slots in their rotation.
Passan: Phillies. If Nola leaves, the Phillies are unlikely to go into next season without addressing their rotation. And while they could do so via the trade market — Tyler Glasnow would be a pretty great fit, as would Shane Bieber — getting someone like Snell, whose strikeout and weak-contact rates align well with the Phillies’ below-average defense, fits quite well. Add in the fact that the Phillies boast a deep bullpen, and it allays fears that Snell not going deep into games is problematic. Philadelphia isn’t scared of high-walk pitchers — especially if they have the stuff and the ability to limit damage like Snell does, with the second-highest strikeout rate and fourth-lowest homer rate among starters in 2023.
Schoenfield: Dodgers. They have seen plenty of Snell in recent years, and he has a 2.59 ERA against them in 13 regular-season starts — and that doesn’t include his infamous World Series start in 2020. With the news that Clayton Kershaw will undergo shoulder surgery and be sidelined until next summer (he’s a free agent but said he wants to keep pitching), the Dodgers’ rotation is in even more disarray than it was in the postseason. They need starters. Snell’s year-to-year inconsistency and durability can be frustrating, but the upside — one Cy Young Award with a second on the way — is so high that the Dodgers should be willing to take the gamble. Sure, Ohtani would be the dream, but you can make the case that with Ohtani’s pitching future uncertain, maybe they should spread their money out to a couple of starting pitchers this offseason.
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Jordan Montgomery, SP (30)
Doolittle: Rangers. Montgomery fit so well with Texas, and developed such a quick and close relationship with catcher Jonah Heim, it’s really hard to envision him wanting to leave the world champions. But of course, free agents do leave good spots all the time because it usually comes down to the best offer. The Rangers are willing to spend but the thing is, by next October they could have a rotation that has Scherzer, deGrom and Nate Eovaldi. That could push someone even as good as Montgomery, who pitched so well in this year’s postseason, into the fourth role. Also, even with the Mets picking up a sizable chunk of Scherzer’s tab, Texas is already committed to a lot of money in its rotation. But keeping Monty is too good to pass up. Let’s say the Rangers get back to October. They could have Scherzer, deGrom and Eovaldi lined up, with Monty and Jon Gray in hybrid roles behind them and — just maybe — Josh Hader waiting at the back of the bullpen. Get used to those parades, Arlington.
Olney: Rangers. For many years, the owner who was most willing to spend from his personal fortune — rather than within the revenue constraints of the team — was the Detroit Tigers’ Mike Ilitch, and then in recent years, that has been the San Diego Padres’ Peter Seidler and the Mets’ Steve Cohen. Quietly, the Rangers’ Ray Davis has joined that group. At 81 years old, he has decided he wants to win baseball championships, and he’s doing everything he can to make that happen. Like signing Marcus Semien and Corey Seager for a half-billion dollars. Like outbidding the rest of the industry for deGrom by about 80%. Like giving up a top prospect to deal for a future Hall of Famer in Scherzer at the deadline. Montgomery thrived with Texas after joining them from the Cardinals, and he seemed to really enjoy working with pitching coach Mike Maddux and manager Bruce Bochy, winning a championship. It seems inevitable that the Rangers will give the lefty whatever he needs to re-sign.
Passan: Red Sox. They want to win now, and while they have spent some in free agency in recent years — Masataka Yoshida and Trevor Story were nine-figure signings — they have no money committed to starting pitching beyond this season. Not only is Montgomery a veteran of the AL East, having come up with the Yankees, he more than proved himself a playoff-capable pitcher, helping lead the Rangers to a World Series title this year. Boston’s new chief baseball officer, Breslow, made his mark with the Cubs as their director of pitching, and he knows if the Red Sox are to improve, complementing their strong bullpen with an equally robust rotation is a good place to begin.
Schoenfield: Cincinnati Reds. I’d put the Rangers as the favorite here, too, but file this one under the category of, “They could really use him and it would be fun to see.” Yes, the Reds never spend in free agency (except for that one offseason when they signed Nick Castellanos and Mike Moustakas), but they have an exciting young core and a super inexpensive roster — one in need of a veteran guy like Montgomery who can chew up innings. Hunter Greene, Brandon Williamson, Andrew Abbott, Graham Ashcraft and Nick Lodolo all have intriguing upside, but none of those players have proven they can make it through a full season and remain effective at the same time. The Reds ranked 25th in rotation ERA and could use a stabilizing presence on the mound. Do I expect the Castellini family to spend? Of course not. But Reds fans can hope for a surprise.
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Jorge Castillo
NEW YORK — David Stearns was about to disappear into the New York Mets‘ clubhouse Monday afternoon when he stopped to answer questions about the one potentially prominent flaw remaining on his roster after the trade deadline: the starting rotation.
The glaring inability of Mets starters to pitch deep into games over the past two months — David Peterson is the only one to log at least six innings in an outing during that span — prompted fans to plead for the Mets’ president of baseball operations to fortify the rotation. After he elected not to acquire a starting pitcher at the trade deadline, the talk has turned to potentially improving from within by promoting Brandon Sproat or Nolan McLean, two standout pitching prospects excelling in Triple-A.
“I think it’s always a combination of when, developmentally, those guys are ready,” Stearns said. “And also when there’s the need and how to fit it on the roster. And so we may get to the point where we decide that it’s the best thing to do to bring one or both of them here. But we’re not at that point right now.”
The Mets’ front office acted aggressively ahead of last Thursday’s deadline, acquiring three top-tier relievers (Ryan Helsley, Tyler Rogers and Gregory Soto) to strengthen a taxed bullpen, and a veteran center fielder (Cedric Mullins) to improve the lineup. But while Stearns said he “engaged” teams on starting pitchers — including Washington Nationals All-Star left-hander MacKenzie Gore, sources told ESPN — he determined the costs were too high.
The Mets were far from the only World Series contender to not bolster their starting rotation in a deadline with an exorbitant trade demand for the few available. But the difference between most of those clubs and the Mets is that refusing to pay the going rate for elite major league starting pitchers — whether in free agency or via the trade market — has been a fundamental principle in Stearns’ roster-building.
One of the mysteries surrounding Stearns’ move to New York after a hugely successful seven-year run leading the small-market Milwaukee Brewers was how he would use owner Steve Cohen’s deep pockets. The Mets have spent large sums of money — they gave Juan Soto the richest contract in North American sports history in December — but Stearns has remained disciplined and methodical in building his pitching staff, preferring starting pitchers he says he believes have untapped potential.
After an unexpected run to the National League Championship Series without a true ace last fall, the Mets head into the stretch run this season with the same missing ingredient.
“I think there are multiple ways to build a pitching staff and we focused on the back end of the pitching staff, the bullpen,” Stearns said. “We’re really happy with the arms we were able to acquire who are going to pitch out of our pen and we have confidence, not only in the stars who are here who we think are going to keep us competitive and help us win games, we are also pleased with the development of how some of the guys in Triple-A are progressing. And we understand that they could … be part of the mix going forward if needed.”
The Mets strongly pursued Yoshinobu Yamamoto before last season and offered him a contract similar to the 12-year, $325 million deal — the largest ever for a pitcher — Yamamoto signed with the Los Angeles Dodgers. But Yamamoto was an outlier — not just an already highly accomplished pitcher in Japan, but, just as importantly, only 25 years old. That rare combination of age and talent met Stearns’ criteria to offer an expensive long-term contract.
Ultimately, the Mets signed Sean Manaea to a one-year deal with an option and Luis Severino to a one-year contract for the rotation, then opted for a similar blueprint this past winter, choosing not to strongly pursue any of the top three starting pitchers (Corbin Burnes, Max Fried and Blake Snell) on the free agent market.
Stearns instead re-signed Manaea to a three-year, $75 million deal (the biggest contract Stearns has given to a starting pitcher), inked Clay Holmes to a three-year, $38 million deal (with an opt-out after 2026) to convert him from a reliever to a starter, gave Frankie Montas a two-year, $34 million contract (with an opt-out after this season), and added Griffin Canning on a one-year deal.
“I still think it’s really valuable and there have been teams that I’ve been around in my career that have had one or multiple ace-level starters on their staff and got bounced early in the playoffs and that can be tough to figure out sometimes too,” Stearns said last month. “So, you’d always like to have the horse at the front of the rotation, there’s no question. But it’s not the only way to build a rotation, it’s not the only way to win a playoff series, it’s not the only way to win a World Series.”
The moves have so far yielded mixed results.
The Mets’ rotation led the majors with a 2.84 ERA and ranked 14th in innings pitched through June 7, when they were 41-24 and led the NL East by 3½ games. Since then, Mets starters rank 24th in ERA (4.74) and 28th in innings pitched. The club has a 22-27 record during the stretch and now trails the Philadelphia Phillies by 2½ games in the division.
Injuries have played a factor in the drop-off, with four starters landing on the injured list in June. Kodai Senga, who signed a five-year, $75 million deal in 2022 — a year before Stearns’ arrival in Queens — strained his hamstring and sat out nearly a month. Canning had been a strong contributor until a ruptured left Achilles tendon ended his season, and Tylor Megill (elbow) and Paul Blackburn (shoulder) are still working their way back.
Manaea, who began the season on the IL, has made only five starts since his return last month, the most recent Monday against the Cleveland Guardians, when he dominated for five innings before surrendering five runs in the sixth. Montas, who has posted a ghastly 6.68 ERA in seven starts, is in danger of losing his rotation spot when Blackburn and Megill are activated.
Holmes, meanwhile, hasn’t logged more than 5⅓ innings in a start since June 7 against the Colorado Rockies, and has already doubled his previous career high for innings in a season. And Senga yielded four runs over four innings Saturday, marking the fourth straight start he has failed to pitch into the sixth.
“We haven’t gotten consistency out of the starting pitching,” Mets manager Carlos Mendoza said Monday. “I think that’s where it starts every night. It starts on the mound, and we haven’t been able to get some quality starts.”
One of Sproat and McLean, if not both, could soon get the call to help. McLean has a 2.81 ERA in 15 games (12 starts) for Triple-A Syracuse after posting a 1.37 ERA in five games for Double-A Binghamton to begin the season. Sproat has emerged from early-season struggles with a dominant stretch for Syracuse, holding opponents to two earned runs in 33 innings over his past six starts.
The two 24-year-old right-handers, both drafted and developed by the Mets, have seemingly checked the necessary boxes in the minors. They could give the big league rotation the push it needs for the final stretch. For now, they and the Mets’ fan base wait.
Said Stearns: “I think they’re getting close.”
In the past six years, four of the College Football Playoff national champions have been SEC teams. Will 2025 be the season that yet another SEC team claims the title?
Texas, Georgia and Alabama all enter the season with new starting quarterbacks. Texas’ Arch Manning is under some very bright lights as we wait to see whether he lives up to the hype in his new starting role. Georgia’s Gunner Stockton got a taste at starting quarterback, stepping up in the 2025 Sugar Bowl after now-Miami quarterback Carson Beck got injured in the 2024 SEC championship game. And Alabama’s Ty Simpson has a big season ahead as Alabama looks to make a run at the CFP after just missing it last season.
Former Washington State quarterback John Mateer joins Oklahoma this fall after ranking No. 1 in the top 100 transfers list from the 2024-25 transfer cycle. Could Oklahoma bounce back after a seven-loss season last year?
We’re here to get you caught up on the SEC by breaking down the conference’s CFP outlook, Power Rankings, must-see games, top freshmen, key transfers and numbers to know.
Jump to:
CFP outlook | Must-see games
Freshmen | Transfers
Numbers to know
Power rankings
CFB outlook
Should be in: The SEC will attempt to restore its dominance after its teams failed to win each of the past two national championships. The league claimed four in a row from 2019 to ’22 and sent three teams (Georgia, Texas and Tennessee) to the CFP in 2024. Alabama was the first team left out of the 12-team bracket. The Longhorns should be right back in the mix, especially if former five-star quarterback Arch Manning is as good as advertised. Texas returns three potential All-Americans — edge rusher Colin Simmons, linebacker Anthony Hill Jr. and safety Michael Taaffe — from a defense that ranked No. 3 in the FBS in scoring defense (15.3 points) last season. Georgia will also be breaking in a new starting quarterback, as Gunner Stockton is replacing Carson Beck, who left for Miami. The Bulldogs will have four new starting offensive linemen, and they’re counting on Zachariah Branch (USC) and Noah Thomas (Texas A&M) to upgrade their receiver corps. The Crimson Tide will be looking to bounce back from a four-loss campaign in coach Kalen DeBoer’s first season, and their defense, led by an imposing front seven, should be good enough to get them back into the race for an SEC title. Ty Simpson is another first-year starting quarterback, and he’ll have plenty of weapons and a stout offensive line supporting him. — Mark Schlabach
In the running: LSU brings back the SEC’s most accomplished quarterback in Garrett Nussmeier, who threw for 4,052 yards with 29 touchdowns in 2024. With tailback Caden Durham and receiver Aaron Anderson returning, the Tigers should again be as explosive as any offense in the league. The question, of course, is whether LSU’s defense will be able to slow down opponents. The Tigers should be better after adding a plethora of defenders from the transfer portal, especially if Harold Perkins Jr. can stay healthy. Texas A&M is one of the few SEC contenders that won’t be breaking in a new quarterback. Marcel Reed was solid as a freshman, and if he can cut down on mistakes in his second season, the Aggies might be a big surprise. With tailbacks Amari Daniels and Le’Veon Moss running behind an offensive line that brings back five seniors, Reed won’t have to do too much. Ole Miss was in the running for a CFP bid until losing at Florida late in the 2024 season, and coach Lane Kiffin has used the transfer portal again to reload his roster. The Rebels will be breaking in a new quarterback, Austin Simmons, and they’re going to be relying on myriad transfers to rebuild their defense. They’ll play at Georgia and Oklahoma and get LSU, South Carolina and Florida at home. — Chris Low
Long shots: In what figures to be a big season for Oklahoma coach Brent Venables, the Sooners added former Washington State quarterback John Mateer and running back Jaydn Ott from Cal. The defense should be solid, and if new offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle can turn things around, the Sooners might be a sleeper. The Sooners play Texas in Dallas and South Carolina, Tennessee and Alabama on the road. South Carolina brings back one of the league’s best players in quarterback LaNorris Sellers, but it will have to replace its entire offensive line, leading rusher and most of its top playmakers on defense. Tennessee will be looking for a return to the playoff. Nico Iamaleava is out as quarterback, and Joey Aguilar comes in after spending the spring at UCLA. The Vols will again need Tim Banks’ defense to carry the load. Missouri has the most manageable schedule in the league, and this may be Eliah Drinkwitz’s best defense. The Tigers play eight of their 12 games at home and avoid Georgia, LSU and Texas. Florida will also be improved and has the quarterback and defense to make a run. But, whew, that schedule. — Schlabach
Must-see games
From Bill Connelly’s SEC conference preview
Here are the 10 games — eight in conference play, plus two of the biggest nonconference games of 2025 — that feature (A) the highest combined SP+ ratings for both teams and (B) a projected scoring margin under 10 points.
Texas at Ohio State (Aug. 30) and LSU at Clemson (Aug. 30). I have so many questions about each of these four teams, and I’m so happy that they’ve basically paired off with each other to help answer them. Toss in Alabama at Florida State in between the noon ET kickoff in Columbus and the evening kickoff in Clemson and you’ve got yourself a solid SEC headliner for each time slot on the first Saturday of the season.
Georgia at Tennessee (Sept. 13). The Bulldogs and Volunteers meet in September for the first time since 2018. Good. I like my UGA-Tennessee games early, when they can spark the largest possible existential crises.
Alabama at Georgia (Sept. 27). A rematch of the second-best game of 2024*. Aside from Ohio State-Michigan, no game did a better job of reminding us that huge college football games will still be huge and delightful even if the national title stakes are dampened by a bigger playoff.
(* Bama gets a rematch of the best game of 2024 the next week when Vandy comes to town.)
LSU at Ole Miss (Sept. 27). Is it too late to redraw the schedules? Between the Bama-Georgia and Oregon-Penn State main events and an undercard of LSU-Ole Miss, Indiana-Iowa, TCU-Arizona State and USC-Illinois (and, on top of everything else, South Dakota at North Dakota State), Week 5 might actually be too big! Goodness.
Texas at Florida (Oct. 4). Texas benefited from an easier slate (relatively speaking) in 2024, with just three regular-season opponents finishing in the SP+ top 20. But if Florida and Oklahoma improve as projected this fall, the Horns are looking at five such games, only one of which is in Austin. That’s the opposite of easy.
Ole Miss at Georgia (Oct. 18). Ole Miss might have enjoyed the single best performance of the regular season in last year’s 28-10 walloping of the Dawgs. That the Rebels turned right around and lost to Florida, eventually eliminating them from CFP contention, has to be one of the biggest on-field regrets of the past 50 years in Oxford.
Alabama at South Carolina (Oct. 25). South Carolina began turning its season around with a near-comeback win over Bama in 2024. This will be the Gamecocks’ third straight game against a projected top-20 team, so the season might have already gone in a couple different directions by the time Bama gets to town.
LSU at Alabama (Nov. 8). Bama crushed LSU in Baton Rouge last season, then pulled an Ole Miss and fell victim to a devastating upset two weeks later. Considering the expectations and pressure both of these teams are dealing with, this game could have playoff stakes and/or hot seat stakes. Or both?
Texas at Georgia (Nov. 15). Georgia was the only SEC hurdle Texas couldn’t clear last season. There’s obviously a chance this will be the first of two UGA-UT matchups in a four-week span.
Three freshmen to watch
Dallas Wilson, WR, Florida
Wilson showed up instantly by catching 10 passes for almost 200 yards and two touchdowns in Florida’s spring game. No matter who starts at quarterback on Week 1 for the Gators, there’s a good chance they’ll develop a quick connection with Wilson. The 6-foot-4 Florida native has a massive catch radius, 10-inch hands and surprising breakaway speed given his frame. He runs a legitimate 4.5 40-yard dash and has the shiftiness to pick up yards after the catch, making him a nightmare matchup who should see the field early in The Swamp.
David Sanders Jr., OT, Tennessee
Rarely does Tennessee turn a starting offensive line spot over to a freshman, but Sanders has all the developmental markers of an impactful tackle right out of the gate in Rocky Top. He was named North Carolina’s Gatorade Player of the Year as a junior, a rare accolade for an offensive lineman, and was the No. 7 recruit in the Class of 2025. Tennessee coaches challenged Sanders to put on weight after he enrolled early and he answered the call. The freshman now checks in at 6-6, 305 pounds with an exceptional combination of athleticism, lower body flexibility and reaction skills. Sanders will have every opportunity to win the starting right tackle spot on a Volunteers line that needs to replace four starters from last year as they retool in search of a national championship.
DJ Pickett, CB, LSU
At 6-4, Pickett has a monster frame and legitimate speed after recording a 10.7 100-meter time in high school, where he was a district sprinting champion. If he can carry over his momentum from spring practice into fall camp, Pickett has a shot to earn a starting job in Brian Kelly’s overhauled secondary. Pickett impressed LSU coaches with his combination of elite athleticism and playmaking. The five-star corner has a high ceiling and his combination of size and speed rarely seen on the boundaries in the SEC. — Billy Tucker
Three top transfers
These selections are based on Max Olson’s ranking of the top 100 transfers from the 2024-25 transfer cycle.
Transferring from: Washington State | Top 100 rank: 1
HT: 6-1 | WT: 219 | Class: Redshirt sophomore
Background: After spending two years behind Cam Ward, Mateer put together an impressive breakout season in 2024 that has made him one of the most coveted starting QBs in the country. Mateer threw for 3,139 yards and 29 touchdowns on 65% passing and ranked sixth among FBS starters with 1,032 rushing yards (excluding sacks) while scoring 15 rushing TDs. He’s explosive and fearless when he’s on the run, forcing 58 missed tackles according to ESPN Research (most among FBS QBs) with 22 rushes of 15 or more yards. The Little Elm, Texas, native went 8-4 as a starter, leading the Cougars as high as No. 18 in the College Football Playoff rankings, with a top-five expected points added (EPA) per dropback among FBS starters. Washington State put together a strong offer to bring Mateer back in 2025, but he chose to move on via the portal and has an opportunity to be the most impactful player in this portal cycle for 2025. — Max Olson
Scout’s take: Mateer is a true Air Raid guy in the passing game. He excels in rhythm and timing throws and is very decisive. He’s a very tough player to rush because he gets the ball out of his hand. He’s a solid runner who can get out of trouble and extend plays. He plays with a high confidence level and raises the play of the people around him. — Tom Luginbill
What he brings to Oklahoma: Much-needed swagger. Oklahoma hired Washington State offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle on Dec. 2, which made Mateer-to-OU the worst-kept secret in portal recruiting. Miami and others made a strong push, but Mateer couldn’t turn down a chance to join his coaches in Norman and play on a big stage next season. The Sooners have added a lot of talent via the portal to try to get things fixed, but Mateer will inject a ton of playmaking ability and confidence into their offense. — Max Olson
Transferring from: Georgia Tech | Top 100 rank: 6
HT: 5-11 | WT: 190 | Class: Sophomore
Background: Singleton was an instant difference-maker for Georgia Tech’s offense when he arrived, earning Freshman All-America honors in 2023 and finishing second for the ACC’s Offensive Rookie of the Year honor. The three-star signee from Douglasville, Georgia, caught 104 passes for 1,468 yards and scored 10 offensive touchdowns over the past two seasons. Singleton also ran track for the Yellow Jackets with a personal record of 10.32 in the 100-meter dash this spring. He has the talent to become an early-round draft pick and was one of the most coveted players in the portal. — Olson
Scout’s take: Singleton might be one of the best route runners and fastest overall players to enter the transfer portal. He’s really good in the underneath passing game, where he can turn screens and 5-yard catches into big chunk gains. He also has elite straight-line speed to get behind the defense and plucks most balls thrown in his vicinity. What made him such a high commodity in the portal are the intangibles. He’s a great blocker and tough player. — Billy Tucker
What he brings to Auburn: After the program’s fourth consecutive losing season, coach Hugh Freeze and the Tigers assembled an impressive transfer recruiting class that they hope will flip their fortunes in 2025. This is a significant win over Texas, Ole Miss and several other SEC foes; Singleton should play a high-target role for the Tigers as they replace talented pass catchers KeAndre Lambert-Smith and Rivaldo Fairweather. — Olson
Transferring from: USC | Top 100 rank: 8
HT: 5-10 | WT: 175 | Class: Sophomore
Background: Branch lived up to five-star hype right away with the Trojans and was one of the most dangerous all-purpose playmakers in the country in 2023. The No. 7 overall recruit became the first USC freshman to earn first-team All-America honors in program history. He was dominant in the return game (774 yards, two TDs) during his debut season and turned 89 touches on offense into 910 yards and four TDs over his two years at USC. He entered the portal along with his older brother, USC safety Zion Branch. — Olson
Scout’s take: One of the fastest players in the 2023 class, Branch quickly transitioned into one of college football’s most electrifying players as a true freshman at USC. He ran a verified 4.41 40 and had 100-meter track times in the 10.3 range coming out of national power Bishop Gorman in Las Vegas. That speed transferred to the field immediately as a returner in 2023. His special teams production dipped as a sophomore, but that might be more related to opponent scheme than any diminishing skill. In the passing game, he’s what you’d expect: a big-play weapon in the screen game, jet sweeps and on quick slants and crossers that get him the ball in space. He’s an underneath mismatch and a great YAC target. — Tucker
What he brings to Georgia: Branch is a big-time upgrade for a Georgia offense that must replace leading receivers Arian Smith and Dominic Lovett. The Bulldogs led all FBS teams with 36 receiver drops last season, according to ESPN Research, and will need Branch to be a reliable difference-maker for new starting QB Gunner Stockton. — Olson
Numbers to know
3: According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, three of the four teams with at least a 10% chance of winning the national championship are in the SEC: Texas at 24%, Georgia at 18% and Alabama at 11%. (The fourth team is Ohio State of the Big Ten at 11%.)
0: The number of new head coaches in the SEC this season, marking just the fourth time that has happened since the league expanded to 12 teams in 1992. There also were only four coordinator changes this offseason after more than half of the SEC’s coordinators were replaced following the 2023-24 season.
+250: The odds of Texas winning the SEC championship, according to ESPN BET, which are the longest odds for an SEC favorite in at least 15 years. The preseason favorite has gone on to win the SEC title in six of the last 10 seasons. — ESPN Research
Power Rankings
Steve Sarkisian loves his roster, and he has plenty of reason to be excited with Manning, receivers DeAndre Moore Jr. and Ryan Wingo, and tailbacks Quintrevion Wisner and CJ Baxter returning. The Longhorns will have to replace four starting offensive linemen and fill some holes on the defensive front.
Stockton got a taste of being the starting quarterback in the second half of last season’s SEC championship game and a CFP quarterfinal and did an admirable job. If Georgia’s offensive line plays better and his receivers are more dependable, Stockton should be fine running the offense.
DeBoer’s first season didn’t go as planned, but replacing Nick Saban at Alabama would have been a nightmare for any coach. DeBoer’s track record of success is too good for the Crimson Tide not to bounce back in Year 2.
4. LSU Tigers
The Tigers are probably going to score a lot of points, and if Brian Kelly can figure out how to turn around his defense, they might be a legitimate SEC title and CFP contender. LSU has dropped five straight season openers, three under Kelly, and it plays at Clemson on Aug. 30.
The Aggies went 8-5 in Mike Elko’s first season after starting 7-1, and if the longtime defensive coordinator can figure out how to improve a unit that allowed 5.5 yards per play in 2024, they might be a CFP dark horse. The offense might be spectacular and pound teams in the running game if quarterback Marcel Reed continues to grow as a passer.
Lane Kiffin loves to score points, but the Rebels were in the CFP hunt in 2024 because of their defense, which ranked No. 2 in the FBS in scoring defense (14.4 points), behind only national champion Ohio State. If Austin Simmons takes care of the ball, the Rebels might be better than anticipated.
The SEC schedule gets a little harder for the Vols this season, with the Alabama and Florida games both being on the road. The Georgia game on Sept. 13 is also earlier than usual, albeit at home, as Tennessee breaks in a new quarterback. The defense should again be very good and keep the Vols in games, but they’re going to need more explosive plays on offense if they’re going to make the playoff again.
Mateer was a massive get in the transfer portal for the Sooners, who simply couldn’t score a year ago. They were held to 20 or fewer points in seven of their 13 games. Oklahoma addressed several other needs on offense in the portal, and Venables is taking over the play-calling duties on defense. A four-game stretch from Oct. 11-Nov. 1 against Texas in Dallas, South Carolina on the road, Ole Miss at home and Tennessee on the road will define OU’s season.
The two lingering questions with the Gators, who came back from the dead a year ago, are whether or not ultra-talented quarterback DJ Lagway can stay healthy for the season and how they navigate a killer schedule again. Florida plays six teams ranked nationally in the preseason polls.
The Gamecocks might have a bona fide star in Sellers, but they’re having to replace many of the key pieces around him, as well as several difference-makers on defense. South Carolina plays a five-game stretch against LSU (road), Oklahoma (home), Alabama (home), Ole Miss (road) and Texas A&M (road) in October and November.
11. Missouri Tigers
If the Tigers were more proven at quarterback, they’d probably be ranked a lot higher. Even so, don’t be surprised if Drinkwitz’s club makes a serious run at double-digit wins for the third straight season, which has never happened in school history. Penn State transfer Beau Pribula and Sam Horn, who missed all of last season after undergoing Tommy John surgery, are competing for the starting quarterback job.
12. Auburn Tigers
This should be Hugh Freeze’s best team on the Plains, and the Tigers could be one of those teams that makes a lot more noise during the season than some outside of the program are expecting. So much will depend on quarterback Jackson Arnold, who’s getting a reset after transferring from Oklahoma. He has a deep and talented receiving corps, and edge rusher Keldric Faulk leads a defense that needs to be better at getting off the field in key situations.
13. Arkansas is another team that has a chance to be much improved, although the final record might not reflect it. The Hogs have one of the trickier schedules in the league, and some new faces need to step up on defense. But returning quarterback Taylen Green is dynamic as both a passer and runner and should be even better in his second season under offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino.
14. This is no diss to Clark Lea and the Commodores to be ranked this low. They reveled in proving people wrong a year and may do the same again this year, especially if they can stay healthy. Quality depth has always been a problem for Vanderbilt. What’s not a problem is its quarterback. Diego Pavia returns after a terrific debut season on West End. His teammates feed off his energy and toughness.
15. Mark Stoops, in his 13th season at Kentucky, is the dean of SEC coaches. He has built the Wildcats’ program from the ground up, but they dipped to 4-8 a year ago and 1-7 in the SEC. That’s after winning 10 games in 2018 and 2021 and going to eight straight bowl games. The Wildcats need to regain their tough, blue-collar approach and get consistent play from transfer quarterback Zach Calzada (on his fourth different team) if they’re going to bounce back in 2025.
16. Mississippi State Bulldogs
It has been a whirlwind for second-year Mississippi State coach Jeff Lebby, who has had to completely overhaul the roster, 80% consisting of players in their first or second year in the program. Lebby is excited by what he has seen from quarterback Blake Shapen, who missed most of last season with a shoulder injury. The home schedule for the Bulldogs is one of the toughest in the country. Four playoff teams from a year ago (Arizona State, Tennessee, Texas and Georgia) visit Starkville. — Schlabach, Low
Washington Capitals star Alex Ovechkin has partnered with a Russian technology company to produce a movie, series or documentary about his NHL career.
Yandex and its streaming platform, Kinopoisk, announced the agreement Tuesday.
Ovechkin this past spring broke Wayne Gretzky’s career goals record and has scored 897 going into the final season of his contract with the Capitals. Ovechkin, who turns 40 next month, has along with his representatives granted the rights to adapt his career to Yandex’s production label, Plus Studio.
The Moscow native began his professional career in the Russian league, now the KHL. He is expected to take part in commercials and serve as a Yandex ambassador as part of the deal.
Ovechkin has played his entire NHL career with Washington since the Capitals drafted him with the first pick in 2004, and he debuted in 2005. He has been the face of the franchise since, served as its captain since January 2010. He was playoffs MVP in 2018 when he led the Capitals to their first Stanley Cup championship.
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