CFP Anger Index: Is the committee actually overlooking … Alabama?!?!
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David Hale, ESPN Staff Writer
There are two types of anger in any given walk of life. The first is instant outrage, like when you get a look at the first College Football Playoff rankings and realize the committee applied one line of logic to Ohio State and another to Michigan and seemed entirely unfazed by that seeming paradox.
The second type is the long simmering furor that builds over time, becoming all the more irrational and indignant the longer it’s left untended — like your partner failing to hang the toilet paper roll the right way (loose end in front) or the committee leaving the top eight teams unchanged from week to week in spite of the aforementioned paradoxical justifications even when we’ve calmly explained its mistake and given it ample time to adjust particularly when, say, Ohio State struggled against Rutgers or when Washington notched another solid win and — sorry, we blacked out for a moment there due to sheer outrage.
Anyway, the second College Football Playoff rankings are upon us, and rather than rehash similar frustrations from a week earlier amidst a relatively unchanged top 25, let’s dig deeper, truly connect with our super ego, and unleash our hostilities upon the committee anew.
Let’s compare resumes for a moment.
Team A: 9-0, No. 2 strength of record, No. 3 average win probability, No. 3 overall offense in SP+ with wins over Nos. 4, 17 and 27 in SP+ by a total of 20 points.
Team B: 9-0, No. 1 strength of record, No. 11 average win probability, No. 3 overall defense in SP+ with wins over Nos. 5, 10 and 28 in SP+ by a total of 25 points.
Pretty similar resumes, right?
You probably know Team A is Washington, fresh off a double-digit win over USC that may have raised a red flag or two about the Huskies’ defense.
Team B, of course, is Ohio State, fresh off a double-digit win over Rutgers that may have raised a red flag or two about the Buckeyes’ offense.
Do you lean Ohio State between the two? We can see that. But would you say there’s a four-spot difference between the two?
Washington’s win over the Trojans actually helped the Huskies leapfrog Florida State in ESPN’s Strength of Record metric, but it didn’t sway the committee (the same committee that, inexplicably, thought USC was the No. 20 team in the country just a week ago).
Now here’s a fun what-if: Ohio State loses to Michigan in the regular-season finale in a close game, then sits back and watches as Washington loses to Oregon by 10 in the Pac-12 title game.
Who’s getting into the playoff? Two Pac-12 teams or two Big Ten teams?
I think we know the answer to that. (And not just because all of them will be in the Big Ten soon enough.)
In any other years, we’d be applauding the committee for sticking to its guns and keeping big, bad Alabama below seven other teams, in spite of the fact that Alabama is, well, Alabama. Typically the committee’s chief responsibility is to reverse engineer Alabama’s narrative, then rank accordingly. This year, it has afforded grace to each undefeated team, rewarded Oregon for playing Washington tough and beating Utah, and credited Texas for its head-to-head win over the Crimson Tide way back in Week 2.
So, kudos, right?
This time, we actually think maybe Alabama is being overlooked a bit. (Hey, you, stop throwing things at us! We’ll explain!)
Yes, head-to-head should matter, and the fact is Texas beat Alabama. But that’s only part of the story.
That game came at a very precarious time for the Crimson Tide as they were still trying to figure out their QB situation. Well, if you watched Jalen Milroe in last week’s 42-28 win over LSU, I think we can officially say, problem solved.
Or how about this comparison?
Team A: 5 wins vs. Quad 1 (i.e. top 35) teams in FPI, with its lone loss coming to a top-10 team
Team B: 5 wins vs. Quad 1 (i.e. top 35) teams in FPI, with its lone loss coming to a top-10 team.
Clearly a good comparison … except Team A is Alabama, and Team B is Oregon and Texas combined.
Indeed, it’s almost been accepted as fact that Oregon is the best one-loss team in the country, despite the fact the Ducks’ only impressive win came against Utah, a team playing a safety at tailback and a former walk-on at QB. The next-best item on their resume is a loss.
Now look at Alabama: 14-point wins vs. No. 9 Ole Miss, No. 13 Tennessee and No. 19 LSU.
Moreover, just consider the trend line. This, of course, will be the fun of the 12-team playoff, when the hottest teams will have a true advantage in the postseason, but it’s worth appreciating now, too.
If the playoff started tomorrow, and your favorite team was in, who’s the team you’d least want to play in the semifinal?
We’ll wait, but the answer is Alabama.
It’s pretty clear everyone believes Louisville has been lucky to face a weak schedule, showed its true colors in a horrible loss to Pitt, and is without question the worst of the one-loss teams.
Well, the Cardinals did lose to Pitt, and that’s a genuine blemish considering how bad the Panthers have been. Never mind that Louisville actually out-gained Pitt by nearly 150 yards or that its best offensive weapon, running back Jawhar Jordan, got hurt early on and had just two carries or that three turnovers were the real difference in the game. It was still a bad loss.
But how about the wins?
That easy schedule actually hasn’t been such a cakewalk. Louisville has five wins over Power 5 opponents with a winning record. Ohio State is the only other team with as many. Louisville has four wins over Power 5 foes 6-3 or better. Only Oklahoma State Cowboys has as many. Those four wins over 6-3 (or better) P5 foes came by an average of 17 points.
And Louisville ranks 18th in offensive efficiency and 11th in defensive efficiency so far this year. The only teams to rank higher in both? Florida State, Michigan and Ohio State.
Put some respect on the Cardinals’ name.
4. The Group of 5
Blame Air Force for this one. Last week, the committee afforded the Falcons the No. 25 spot and they promptly coughed up six turnovers in a brutal loss to Army . So, this week, the lone school from outside the Power 5 is Tulane at No. 23.
Fresno State at 8-1 and winners of 17 of its past 18? Unranked.
Liberty at 9-0 with one of the nation’s most underrated QB performances of the season? Unranked.
Toledo at 8-1 with its lone loss coming on the road to Illinois in Week 1 by two points? Unranked.
James Madison? Not even allowed to be ranked!
And yet, here’s Iowa, whose game film is used to quell prison riots, checks in at No. 22.
The Scarlet Knights have two quality losses against top-three teams. If they were in the SEC, they’d be ranked 12th right now.
The 2025 MLB All-Star Home Run Derby is fast approaching — and the field is set.
Braves hometown hero Ronald Acuna Jr. became the first player to commit to the event, which will be held at Truist Park in Atlanta on July 14 (8 p.m. ET on ESPN). He was followed by MLB home run leader Cal Raleigh of the Seattle Mariners, James Wood of the Washington Nationals, Byron Buxton of the Minnesota Twins, Oneil Cruz of the Pittsburgh Pirates, Junior Caminero of the Tampa Bay Rays, Brent Rooker of the Athletics and Jazz Chisholm Jr. of the New York Yankees.
On Friday, however, Acuna was replaced by teammate Matt Olson.
With all the entrants announced, let’s break down their chances at taking home this year’s Derby prize.
Full All-Star Game coverage: How to watch, schedule, rosters, more
2025 home runs: 17 | Longest: 434 feet
Why he could win: Olson is a late replacement for Acuna as the home team’s representative at this year’s Derby. Apart from being the Braves’ first baseman, however, Olson also was born in Atlanta and grew up a Braves fan, giving him some extra motivation. The left-handed slugger led the majors in home runs in 2023 — his 54 round-trippers that season also set a franchise record — and he remains among the best in the game when it comes to exit velo and hard-hit rate.
Why he might not: The home-field advantage can also be a detriment if a player gets too hyped up in the first round. See Julio Rodriguez in Seattle in 2023, when he had a monster first round, with 41 home runs, but then tired out in the second round.
2025 home runs: 36 | Longest: 440 feet
Why he could win: It’s the season of Cal! The Mariners’ catcher is having one of the greatest slugging first halves in MLB history, as he’s been crushing mistakes all season . His easy raw power might be tailor-made for the Derby — he ranks in the 87th percentile in average exit velocity and delivers the ball, on average, at the optimal home run launch angle of 23 degrees. His calm demeanor might also be perfect for the contest as he won’t get too amped up.
Why he might not: He’s a catcher — and one who has carried a heavy workload, playing in all but one game this season. This contest is as much about stamina as anything, and whether Raleigh can carry his power through three rounds would be a concern. No catcher has ever won the Derby, with only Ivan Rodriguez back in 2005 even reaching the finals.
2025 home runs: 24 | Longest: 451 feet
Why he could win: He’s big, he’s strong, he’s young, he’s awesome, he might or might not be able to leap tall buildings in a single bound. This is the perfect opportunity for Wood to show his talent on the national stage, and he wouldn’t be the first young player to star in the Derby. He ranks in the 97th percentile in average exit velocity and 99th percentile in hard-hit rate, so he can still muscle the ball out in BP even if he slightly mishits it. His long arms might be viewed as a detriment, but remember the similarly tall Aaron Judge won in 2017.
Why he might not: His natural swing isn’t a pure uppercut — he has a pretty low average launch angle of just 6.2 degrees — so we’ll see how that plays in a rapid-fire session. In real games, his power is primarily to the opposite field, but in a Home Run Derby you can get more cheapies pulling the ball down the line.
2025 home runs: 20 | Longest: 479 feet
Why he could win: Buxton’s raw power remains as impressive as nearly any hitter in the game. He crushed a 479-foot home run earlier this season and has four others of at least 425 feet. Indeed, his “no doubter” percentage — home runs that would be out of all 30 parks based on distance — is 75%, the highest in the majors among players with more than a dozen home runs. His bat speed ranks in the 89th percentile. In other words, two tools that could translate to a BP lightning show.
Why he might not: Buxton is 31 and the Home Run Derby feels a little more like a younger man’s competition. Teoscar Hernandez did win last year at age 31, but before that, the last winner older than 29 was David Ortiz in 2010, and that was under much different rules than are used now.
2025 home runs: 16 | Longest: 463 feet
Why he could win: If you drew up a short list of players everyone wants to see in the Home Run Derby, Cruz would be near the top. He has the hardest-hit ball of the 2025 season, and the hardest ever tracked by Statcast, a 432-foot missile of a home run with an exit velocity of 122.9 mph. He also crushed a 463-foot home run in Anaheim that soared way beyond the trees in center field. With his elite bat speed — 100th percentile — Cruz has the ability to awe the crowd with a potentially all-time performance.
Why he might not: Like all first-time contestants, can he stay within himself and not get too caught up in the moment? He has a long swing, which will result in some huge blasts, but might not be the most efficient for a contest like this one, where the more swings a hitter can get in before the clock expires, the better.
2025 home runs: 23 | Longest: 425 feet
Why he could win: Although Caminero was one of the most hyped prospects entering 2024, everyone kind of forgot about him heading into this season since he didn’t immediately rip apart the majors as a rookie. In his first full season, however, he has showed off his big-time raw power — giving him a chance to become just the third player to reach 40 home runs in his age-21 season. He has perhaps the quickest bat in the majors, ranking in the 100th percentile in bat speed, and his top exit velocity ranks in the top 15. That could translate to a barrage of home runs.
Why he might not: In game action, Caminero does hit the ball on the ground quite often — in fact, he’s on pace to break Jim Rice’s record for double plays grounded into in a season. If he gets out of rhythm, that could lead to a lot of low line drives during the Derby instead of fly balls that clear the fences.
2025 home runs: 19 | Longest: 440 feet
Why he could win: The Athletics slugger has been one of the top power hitters in the majors for three seasons now and is on his way to a third straight 30-homer season. Rooker has plus bat speed and raw power, but his biggest strength is an optimal average launch angle (19 degrees in 2024, 15 degrees this season) that translates to home runs in game action. That natural swing could be picture perfect for the Home Run Derby. He also wasn’t shy about saying he wanted to participate — and maybe that bodes well for his chances.
Why he might not: Rooker might not have quite the same raw power as some of the other competitors, as he has just one home run longer than 425 feet in 2025. But that’s a little nitpicky, as 11 of his home runs have still gone 400-plus feet. He competed in the college home run derby in Omaha while at Mississippi State in 2016 and finished fourth.
2025 home runs: 17 | Longest: 442 feet
Why he could win: Chisholm might not be the most obvious name to participate, given his career high of 24 home runs, but he has belted 17 already in 2025 in his first 61 games after missing some time with an injury. He ranks among the MLB leaders in a couple of home run-related categories, ranking in the 96th percentile in expected slugging percentage and 98th percentile in barrel rate. His raw power might not match that of the other participants, but he’s a dead-pull hitter who has increased his launch angle this season, which might translate well to the Derby, even if he won’t be the guy hitting the longest home runs.
Why he might not: Most of the guys who have won this have been big, powerful sluggers. Chisholm is listed at 5-foot-11, 184 pounds, and you have to go back to Miguel Tejada in 2004 to find the last player under 6 foot to win.
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