Autumn statement unlikely to put big dent in tax burden – here’s why
It’s autumn statement time.
Once upon a time, these winter budgets used to be brief updates on the fiscal forecasts, never overshadowing the far more substantial main budget in the spring. Or at least so we’re told.
In practice, for as long as I’ve been covering economics, the autumn statement (or, as Gordon Brown used to call it, the pre-budget report) has simply been the chancellor’s second bite of the fiscal apple – a budget in all but name.
In other words, these statements are quite a big deal.
They have been used to raise taxes and cut them, to lift spending and lower it.
Indeed, it was at Jeremy Hunt’s first autumn statement last year that he introduced some of the tough measures designed to clear up the economic mess following predecessor Kwasi Kwarteng’s mini-budget – freezing income tax and national insurance thresholds all the way until 2028, consigning millions of families to higher taxes.
This time around, we’re all being told that the story will be very different – in particular that tax cuts are now imminent.
We’ll get to those cuts in a moment – and the bizarre pantomime of a government claiming it is cutting taxes even as it does precisely the opposite – but let’s start by getting the “headroom” stuff out of the way.
If you’ve been following any of the coverage of the impending autumn statement, you’ll doubtless have read about how the chancellor may now be ready to start cutting taxes, because he’s been told he has enough “headroom” to do so.
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Chancellor Jeremy Hunt has said
It all sounds rather scientific, doesn’t it – as if a universal measure of fiscal probity has determined that now would be a sensible point to reduce taxation. Except, of course, it isn’t.
Actually in this case, “headroom” means something very specific indeed.
This government, like most of its predecessors since Gordon Brown, has set itself some fiscal rules designed to shore up confidence in its policymaking.
The main rule facing Mr Hunt is that he has committed to getting the national debt falling as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) within five years.
This is, I can’t emphasise enough, a self-imposed rule. Sure: in the light of what happened to the previous Tory government (which briefly eschewed fiscal rules) there’s a strong argument for these rules. But they are not, by any means, tablets of stone.
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Labour’s plans for the economy
Regardless, the debt rule is where that notion of “headroom” comes from. By the end of the five-year forecast horizon mapped out in March (the budget – the last time these figures wreak havoc updated) the UK’s net debt was falling ever so slightly. The fall was equivalent to roughly £6.5bn. Voila: that’s the headroom!
Roll on another six months and a few things have changed.
First, the economy looks a bit bigger than it did in March. This is partly because it has grown a little faster than expected, but mostly because the Office for National Statistics has reassessed its opinion of the size of the economy.
Also, because inflation was higher than expected, the cash size of the economy looks a bit bigger, while the national debt’s size is less changed.
Tot it all up and, due to these mostly statistical artefacts, all of a sudden the national debt as a percentage of that GDP figure looks a bit smaller. The upshot is the apparent “headroom” against this rule is significantly larger: possibly £15bn or maybe even over £20bn.
These sums are, it’s worth underlining, quite arbitrary. They mostly don’t reflect either that the economy is much healthier than it was back in March, or indeed that the government’s decisions have made much difference to the scale of the national debt. They are marked against an entirely self-written fiscal rule. And anyway, the “headroom” the chancellor is left with is still smaller than his predecessors tended to enjoy.
Despite all of those provisos, the government is likely to use these rules as a justification to start cutting taxes.
Yet there’s a big proviso here too. The total tax burden (the amount of taxes we as a country pay as a percentage of our national income) is rising.
Indeed, on the basis of the latest Office for Budget Responsibility numbers, it’s far higher now than it was before Rishi Sunak became prime minister, and is set to rise to the highest level since comparable records began in 1948.
These are the pieces of context it’s worth bearing in mind ahead of this event.
The economy is flatlining. The scale of Britain’s total debt is now far, far higher than before the pandemic. And it’s hard to envisage a scenario where the overall tax burden ends the coming year lower than when this chancellor took over.
None of this will stop Mr Hunt and Mr Sunak putting as positive a gloss on the economic update as they can. But their task will not be easy.
A former Conservative cabinet minister has thrown his hat into the ring to become the inaugural chair of Britain’s new independent football regulator.
Sky News has learnt that Chris Heaton-Harris, who stood down as an MP at July’s general election, is among those who applied for the role ahead of a deadline on Friday.
Mr Heaton-Harris is himself a qualified football referee who has officiated at matches for decades.
A former Northern Ireland secretary and chief whip under Rishi Sunak and Boris Johnson respectively, he said in 2022 of his part-time career as a football official: “I took a [refereeing] course and that was it, I’ve been going ever since.
“Football has done wonders for me throughout my life so I would recommend it to everybody.”
Mr Heaton-Harris is among a large number of people who have applied for the role of chair at the Independent Football Regulator (IFR), according to officials.
A publicly available timetable for the search says that interviews for the £130,000-a-year post will end on 11 December, with an appointment expected in the new year.
It is the second time that the government has embarked on a search for a chair for the IFR after an earlier hunt was curtailed by the general election.
The role will be based at the watchdog’s new headquarters in Manchester and will require a three-day-a-week commitment.
The Football Governance Bill had its second reading in the House of Lords this week, as part of a process that will represent the most fundamental shake-up in the oversight of English football in the game’s history.
The Labour administration has dropped a previous stipulation that the regulator should have regard to British foreign and trade policy when determining the appropriateness of a new club owner.
The IFR will monitor clubs’ adherence to rules requiring them to listen to fans’ views on issues including ticket pricing, while it may also have oversight of the parachute payments made to clubs in the years after their relegation from the Premier League.
The top flight has issued a statement expressing reservations about the regulator’s remit, while it has been broadly welcomed by the English Football League.
The IFR’s creation will come with the Premier League embroiled in a civil war over Manchester City‘s legal battles emanating from allegations that it breached the competition’s financial rules.
Keep up with all the latest news from the UK and around the world by following Sky News
Next week, the 20 Premier League clubs will meet for a lengthy shareholder meeting, with a vote on amended Associated Party Transaction rules hanging in the balance.
The league needs 14 clubs to vote in favour for the rule changes to be passed.
Contrary to earlier expectations, however, a detailed discussion on a financial distribution agreement between the Premier League and EFL is unlikely to be on the agenda.
A Department for Culture, Media and Sport spokesperson said: “The process for recruiting the Independent Football Regulator chair is under way but no appointment decisions have been made.
“We do not comment on speculation.”
This weekend, Mr Heaton-Harris could not be reached for comment.
Pizza Hut’s biggest UK franchisee has begun approaching potential bidders as it scrambles to mitigate the looming impact of tax hikes announced in last month’s Budget.
Sky News has learnt that Heart With Smart (HWS), which operates roughly 140 Pizza Hut dine-in restaurants, has instructed advisers to find a buyer or raise tens of millions of pounds in external funding.
City sources said this weekend that the process, which is being handled by Interpath Advisory, had got under way in recent days and was expected to result in a transaction taking place in the next few months.
HWS, which was previously called Pizza Hut Restaurants, employs about 3,000 people, making it one of the most significant businesses in Britain’s casual dining industry.
It is owned by a combination of Pricoa and the company’s management, led by chief executive Jens Hofma.
They led a management buyout reportedly worth £100m in 2018, with the business having previously owned by Rutland Partners, a private equity firm.
One source suggested that as well as the talks with external third parties, it remained possible that a financing solution could be reached with its existing backers.
HWS licenses the Pizza Hut name from Yum! Brands, the American food giant which also owns KFC.
Insiders suggested that the increases to the national living wage and employers’ national insurance contributions (NICs) unveiled by Rachel Reeves would add approximately £4m to HWS’s annual costs – equivalent to more than half of last year’s earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation.
One added that the Pizza Hut restaurants’ operation needed additional funding to mitigate the impact of the Budget and put the business on a sustainable financial footing.
The consequences of a failure to find a buyer or new investment were unclear on Saturday, although the emergence of the process comes amid increasingly bleak warnings from across the hospitality industry.
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Last weekend, Sky News revealed that a letter co-ordinated by the trade body UK Hospitality and signed by scores of industry chiefs – including Mr Hofma – told the chancellor that left unaddressed, her Budget tax hikes would result in job losses and business closures within a year.
It also said that the scope for pubs and restaurants to pass on the tax rises in the form of higher prices was limited because of weaker consumer spending power.
That was followed by a similar letter drafted by the British Retail Consortium this week which also warned of rising unemployment across the industry, underlining the Budget backlash from large swathes of the UK economy.
Even before the Budget, hospitality operators were feeling significant pressure, with TGI Fridays collapsing into administration before being sold to a consortium of Breal Capital and Calveton.
Sky News recently revealed that Pizza Express had hired investment bankers to advise on a debt refinancing.
HWS operates all of Pizza Hut’s dine-in restaurants in Britain, but has no involvement with its large number of delivery outlets, which are run by individual franchisees.
Accounts filed at Companies House for HWS4 for the period from 5 December 2022 to 3 December 2023 show that it completed a restructuring of its debt under which its lenders agreed to suspend repayments of some of its borrowings until November next year.
The terms of the same facilities were also extended to September 2027, while it also signed a new 10-year Pizza Hut franchise agreement with Yum Brands which expires in 2032.
“Whilst market conditions have improved noticeably since 2022, consumers remain challenged by higher-than-average levels of inflation, high mortgage costs and slow growth in the economy,” the accounts said.
It added: “The costs of business remain challenging.”
Pizza Hut opened its first UK restaurant in the early 1970s and expanded rapidly over the following 15 years.
In 2020, the company announced that it was closing dozens of restaurants, with the loss of hundreds of jobs, through a company voluntary arrangement (CVA).
At that time, it operated more than 240 sites across the UK.
Mr Hofma and Interpath both declined to comment.
The UK economy grew by 0.1% between July and September, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
However, despite the small positive GDP growth recorded in the third quarter, the economy shrank by 0.1% in September, dragging down overall growth for the quarter.
The growth was also slower than what had been expected by experts and a drop from the 0.5% growth between April and June, the ONS said.
Economists polled by Reuters and the Bank of England had forecast an expansion of 0.2%, slowing from the rapid growth seen over the first half of 2024 when the economy was rebounding from last year’s shallow recession.
And the metric that Labour has said it is most focused on – the GDP per capita, or the economic output divided by the number of people in the country – also fell by 0.1%.
Reacting to the figures, Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves said: “Improving economic growth is at the heart of everything I am seeking to achieve, which is why I am not satisfied with these numbers,” she said in response to the figures.
“At my budget, I took the difficult choices to fix the foundations and stabilise our public finances.
“Now we are going to deliver growth through investment and reform to create more jobs and more money in people’s pockets, get the NHS back on its feet, rebuild Britain and secure our borders in a decade of national renewal,” Ms Reeves added.
The sluggish services sector – which makes up the bulk of the British economy – was a particular drag on growth over the past three months. It expanded by 0.1%, cancelling out the 0.8% growth in the construction sector
The UK’s GDP for the the most recent quarter is lower than the 0.7% growth in the US and 0.4% in the Eurozone.
The figures have pushed the UK towards the bottom of the G7 growth table for the third quarter of the year.
It was expected to meet the same 0.2% growth figures reported in Germany and Japan – but fell below that after a slow September.
The pound remained stable following the news, hovering around $1.267. The FTSE 100, meanwhile, opened the day down by 0.4%.
The Bank of England last week predicted that Ms Reeves’s first budget as chancellor will increase inflation by up to half a percentage point over the next two years, contributing to a slower decline in interest rates than previously thought.
Announcing a widely anticipated 0.25 percentage point cut in the base rate to 4.75%, the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) forecast that inflation will return “sustainably” to its target of 2% in the first half of 2027, a year later than at its last meeting.
The Bank’s quarterly report found Ms Reeves’s £70bn package of tax and borrowing measures will place upward pressure on prices, as well as delivering a three-quarter point increase to GDP next year.
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