Autumn statement unlikely to put big dent in tax burden – here’s why

Published

1 year ago

November 21, 2023

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It’s autumn statement time.

Once upon a time, these winter budgets used to be brief updates on the fiscal forecasts, never overshadowing the far more substantial main budget in the spring. Or at least so we’re told.

In practice, for as long as I’ve been covering economics, the autumn statement (or, as Gordon Brown used to call it, the pre-budget report) has simply been the chancellor’s second bite of the fiscal apple – a budget in all but name.

In other words, these statements are quite a big deal.

They have been used to raise taxes and cut them, to lift spending and lower it.

Indeed, it was at Jeremy Hunt’s first autumn statement last year that he introduced some of the tough measures designed to clear up the economic mess following predecessor Kwasi Kwarteng’s mini-budget – freezing income tax and national insurance thresholds all the way until 2028, consigning millions of families to higher taxes.

This time around, we’re all being told that the story will be very different – in particular that tax cuts are now imminent.

We’ll get to those cuts in a moment – and the bizarre pantomime of a government claiming it is cutting taxes even as it does precisely the opposite – but let’s start by getting the “headroom” stuff out of the way.

If you’ve been following any of the coverage of the impending autumn statement, you’ll doubtless have read about how the chancellor may now be ready to start cutting taxes, because he’s been told he has enough “headroom” to do so.

It all sounds rather scientific, doesn’t it – as if a universal measure of fiscal probity has determined that now would be a sensible point to reduce taxation. Except, of course, it isn’t.

Actually in this case, “headroom” means something very specific indeed.

This government, like most of its predecessors since Gordon Brown, has set itself some fiscal rules designed to shore up confidence in its policymaking.

The main rule facing Mr Hunt is that he has committed to getting the national debt falling as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) within five years.

This is, I can’t emphasise enough, a self-imposed rule. Sure: in the light of what happened to the previous Tory government (which briefly eschewed fiscal rules) there’s a strong argument for these rules. But they are not, by any means, tablets of stone.

Regardless, the debt rule is where that notion of “headroom” comes from. By the end of the five-year forecast horizon mapped out in March (the budget – the last time these figures wreak havoc updated) the UK’s net debt was falling ever so slightly. The fall was equivalent to roughly £6.5bn. Voila: that’s the headroom!

Roll on another six months and a few things have changed.

First, the economy looks a bit bigger than it did in March. This is partly because it has grown a little faster than expected, but mostly because the Office for National Statistics has reassessed its opinion of the size of the economy.

Also, because inflation was higher than expected, the cash size of the economy looks a bit bigger, while the national debt’s size is less changed.

Tot it all up and, due to these mostly statistical artefacts, all of a sudden the national debt as a percentage of that GDP figure looks a bit smaller. The upshot is the apparent “headroom” against this rule is significantly larger: possibly £15bn or maybe even over £20bn.

These sums are, it’s worth underlining, quite arbitrary. They mostly don’t reflect either that the economy is much healthier than it was back in March, or indeed that the government’s decisions have made much difference to the scale of the national debt. They are marked against an entirely self-written fiscal rule. And anyway, the “headroom” the chancellor is left with is still smaller than his predecessors tended to enjoy.

Despite all of those provisos, the government is likely to use these rules as a justification to start cutting taxes.

Yet there’s a big proviso here too. The total tax burden (the amount of taxes we as a country pay as a percentage of our national income) is rising.

Indeed, on the basis of the latest Office for Budget Responsibility numbers, it’s far higher now than it was before Rishi Sunak became prime minister, and is set to rise to the highest level since comparable records began in 1948.

These are the pieces of context it’s worth bearing in mind ahead of this event.

The economy is flatlining. The scale of Britain’s total debt is now far, far higher than before the pandemic. And it’s hard to envisage a scenario where the overall tax burden ends the coming year lower than when this chancellor took over.

None of this will stop Mr Hunt and Mr Sunak putting as positive a gloss on the economic update as they can. But their task will not be easy.

Business

Food inflation highest in almost a year – more to come, industry warns

Published

5 hours ago

April 29, 2025

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Food inflation highest in almost a year - more to come, industry warns

Food inflation has hit its highest level in almost a year and could continue to go up, according to an industry body.

The British Retail Consortium (BRC) reported a 2.6% annual lift in food costs during April – the highest level since May last year and up from a 2.4% rate the previous month.

The body said there was a clear risk of further increases ahead due to rising costs, with the sector facing £7bn of tax increases this year due to the budget last October.

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It warned that shoppers risked paying a higher price – but separate industry figures suggested any immediate blows were being cushioned by the effects of a continuing supermarket price war.

Kantar Worldpanel, which tracks trends and prices, said spending on promotions reached its highest level this year at almost 30% of total sales over the four weeks to 20 April.

It said that price cuts, mainly through loyalty cards, helped people to make the most of the Easter holiday with almost 20% of items sold at respective market leaders Tesco and Sainsbury’s on a price match.

Its measure of wider grocery inflation rose to 3.8%, however.

Wider BRC data showed overall shop price inflation at -0.1% over the 12 months to April, with discounting largely responsible for weaker non-food goods.

But its chief executive, Helen Dickinson, said retailers were “unable to absorb” the surge in costs they were facing.

“The days of shop price deflation look numbered,” she said, as food inflation rose to its highest in 11 months, and non-food deflation eased significantly.

“Everyday essentials including bread, meat, and fish, all increased prices on the month. This comes in the same month retailers face a mountain of new employment costs in the form of higher employer National Insurance Contributions and increased NLW [national living wage],” she added.

While retail sales growth has proved somewhat resilient this year, it is believed big rises to household bills in April – from things like inflation-busting water, energy and council tax bills – will bite and continue to keep a lid on major purchases.

Also pressing on both consumer and business sentiment is Donald Trump’s trade war – threatening further costs and hits to economic growth ahead.

A further BRC survey, also published on Tuesday, showed more than half of human resources directors expect to reduce hiring due to the government’s planned Employment Rights Bill.

The bill, which proposes protections for millions of workers including guaranteed minimum hours, greater hurdles for sacking new staff and increased sick pay, is currently being debated in parliament.

The BRC said one of the biggest concerns was that guaranteed minimum hours rules would hit part-time roles.

Business

Inside the Vietnamese factory preparing for the worst since Trump’s tariff threat

Published

5 hours ago

April 29, 2025

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Inside the Vietnamese factory preparing for the worst since Trump's tariff threat

On the outskirts of Ho Chi Minh City, factory workers at Dony Garment have been working overtime for weeks.

Ever since Donald Trump announced a whopping 46% trade tariff on Vietnam, they’ve been preparing for the worst.

They’re rushing through orders to clients in three separate states in America.

Sewing machines buzz with the sound of frantic efforts to do whatever they can before Mr Trump’s big decision day. He may have put his “Liberation Day” tariffs on pause for 90 days, but no one in this factory is taking anything for granted.

Workers like Do Thi Anh are feeling the pressure.

“I have two children to raise. If the tariffs are too high, the US will buy fewer things. I’ll earn less money and I won’t be able to support my children either. Luckily here our boss has a good vision,” she tells me.

That vision was crafted back in 2021. When COVID struck, they started to look at diversifying their market.

Previously they used to export 40% of their garments to America. Now it’s closer to 20%.

The cheery-looking owner of the firm, Pham Quang Anh, tells me with a resilient smile: “We see it as dangerous to depend on one or two markets. So, we had to lose profit and spend on marketing for other markets.”

That foresight could pay off in the months to come. But others are in a far more vulnerable state.

Some of Mr Pham’s colleagues in the industry export all their garments to America. If the 46% tariff is enforced, it could destroy their businesses.

Doubts US will start making what Vietnam delivers

Down by the Saigon River, young couples watch on as sunset falls between the glimmering skyscrapers that stand as a testament to Vietnam’s miracle growth.

Cuong, an affluent-looking man who works in finance, questions the logic and likelihood that America will start making what Vietnam has spent years developing the labour, skills and supply chains to reliably deliver.

“The United States’ GDP is so high. It’s the largest in the world right now. What’s the point in trying to get jobs from developing countries like Vietnam and other Asian nations? It’s unnecessary,” he tells me.

But the Trump administration claims China is using Vietnam to illegally circumvent tariffs, putting “Made in Vietnam” labels on Chinese products.

There’s no easy way to assess that claim. But market watchers believe Vietnam does need to signal its willingness to crack down on so-called “trans-shipments” if it wants to cut a deal with Washington.

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Vietnam can’t afford to alienate China

The US may also demand a major cutback in Chinese manufacturing in Vietnam.

That will be a much harder deal to strike. Vietnam can’t afford to alienate its big brother.

Luke Treloar, head of strategy at KPMG in Vietnam, is however cautiously optimistic.

“If Vietnam goes into these trade talks saying we will be a reliable manufacturer of the core products you need and the core products America wants to sell, the outcome could be good,” he says.

But the key question is just how much influence China will have on Vietnamese negotiators.

Anything above 10-20% tariffs would be intensively challenging

This moment is a huge test of Vietnam’s resilience.

Anything like 46% tariffs would be ruinous. Analysts say 10-20% would be survivable. Anything above, intensely challenging.

But this looming threat is also an opportunity for Vietnam to negotiate and grow. Not, though, without some very testing concessions.

Business

UK-US trade talks ‘moving in a very positive way’, says White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt

Published

8 hours ago

April 29, 2025

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UK-US trade talks 'moving in a very positive way', says White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt

Trade talks between the UK and the United States are “moving in a very positive way”, according to the White House.

President Donald Trump’s press secretary Karoline Leavitt spoke about the likelihood of the long-discussed agreement during a press briefing.

In Westminster, there are hopes such a deal could soften the impact of the Trump tariffs announced last month.

Leavitt told reporters: “As for the trade talks, I understand they are moving in a very positive way with the UK.

“I don’t want to get ahead of the president or our trade team in how those negotiations are going, but I have heard they have been very positive and productive with the UK.”

She said Mr Trump always “speaks incredibly highly” of the UK.

“He has a good relationship with your prime minister, though they disagree on domestic policy issues,” she added.

“I have witnessed the camaraderie between them first hand in the Oval Office, and there is a deep mutual respect between our two countries that certainly the president upholds.”

Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster Pat McFadden gave the UK’s position on the talks when speaking to Sunday Morning With Trevor Phillips.

He said there was “a serious level of engagement going on at high levels” to secure a UK-US trade deal.

Mr McFadden is one of the most powerful members of Sir Keir Starmer’s government and a key ally of the prime minister.

He was careful to not get ahead of developments, however, saying: “I think an agreement is possible – I don’t think it’s certain, and I don’t want to say it’s certain, but I think it’s possible.”

He went on to say the government wanted an “agreement in the UK’s interests” and not a “hasty deal”, amid fears from critics that Number 10 could acquiesce a deal that lowers food standards, for example, or changes certain taxes in a bid to persuade Donald Trump to lower some of the tariffs that have been placed on British goods.

Mr McFadden’s tone was more cautious than Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ last week.

She had been in the US and, speaking to Sky News business and economics correspondent Gurpreet Narwan, the chancellor said she was “confident” a deal could be done.

But she sought to play down fears that UK standards could be watered down, both on food and online safety.

“On food standards, we’ve always been really clear that we’re not going to be watering down standards in the UK and similarly, we’ve just passed the Online Safety Act and the safety, particularly of our children, is non-negotiable for the British government,” Ms Reeves said.