Autumn statement unlikely to put big dent in tax burden – here’s why

Published

10 months ago

November 21, 2023

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It’s autumn statement time.

Once upon a time, these winter budgets used to be brief updates on the fiscal forecasts, never overshadowing the far more substantial main budget in the spring. Or at least so we’re told.

In practice, for as long as I’ve been covering economics, the autumn statement (or, as Gordon Brown used to call it, the pre-budget report) has simply been the chancellor’s second bite of the fiscal apple – a budget in all but name.

In other words, these statements are quite a big deal.

They have been used to raise taxes and cut them, to lift spending and lower it.

Indeed, it was at Jeremy Hunt’s first autumn statement last year that he introduced some of the tough measures designed to clear up the economic mess following predecessor Kwasi Kwarteng’s mini-budget – freezing income tax and national insurance thresholds all the way until 2028, consigning millions of families to higher taxes.

This time around, we’re all being told that the story will be very different – in particular that tax cuts are now imminent.

We’ll get to those cuts in a moment – and the bizarre pantomime of a government claiming it is cutting taxes even as it does precisely the opposite – but let’s start by getting the “headroom” stuff out of the way.

If you’ve been following any of the coverage of the impending autumn statement, you’ll doubtless have read about how the chancellor may now be ready to start cutting taxes, because he’s been told he has enough “headroom” to do so.

It all sounds rather scientific, doesn’t it – as if a universal measure of fiscal probity has determined that now would be a sensible point to reduce taxation. Except, of course, it isn’t.

Actually in this case, “headroom” means something very specific indeed.

This government, like most of its predecessors since Gordon Brown, has set itself some fiscal rules designed to shore up confidence in its policymaking.

The main rule facing Mr Hunt is that he has committed to getting the national debt falling as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) within five years.

This is, I can’t emphasise enough, a self-imposed rule. Sure: in the light of what happened to the previous Tory government (which briefly eschewed fiscal rules) there’s a strong argument for these rules. But they are not, by any means, tablets of stone.

Regardless, the debt rule is where that notion of “headroom” comes from. By the end of the five-year forecast horizon mapped out in March (the budget – the last time these figures wreak havoc updated) the UK’s net debt was falling ever so slightly. The fall was equivalent to roughly £6.5bn. Voila: that’s the headroom!

Roll on another six months and a few things have changed.

First, the economy looks a bit bigger than it did in March. This is partly because it has grown a little faster than expected, but mostly because the Office for National Statistics has reassessed its opinion of the size of the economy.

Also, because inflation was higher than expected, the cash size of the economy looks a bit bigger, while the national debt’s size is less changed.

Tot it all up and, due to these mostly statistical artefacts, all of a sudden the national debt as a percentage of that GDP figure looks a bit smaller. The upshot is the apparent “headroom” against this rule is significantly larger: possibly £15bn or maybe even over £20bn.

These sums are, it’s worth underlining, quite arbitrary. They mostly don’t reflect either that the economy is much healthier than it was back in March, or indeed that the government’s decisions have made much difference to the scale of the national debt. They are marked against an entirely self-written fiscal rule. And anyway, the “headroom” the chancellor is left with is still smaller than his predecessors tended to enjoy.

Despite all of those provisos, the government is likely to use these rules as a justification to start cutting taxes.

Yet there’s a big proviso here too. The total tax burden (the amount of taxes we as a country pay as a percentage of our national income) is rising.

Indeed, on the basis of the latest Office for Budget Responsibility numbers, it’s far higher now than it was before Rishi Sunak became prime minister, and is set to rise to the highest level since comparable records began in 1948.

These are the pieces of context it’s worth bearing in mind ahead of this event.

The economy is flatlining. The scale of Britain’s total debt is now far, far higher than before the pandemic. And it’s hard to envisage a scenario where the overall tax burden ends the coming year lower than when this chancellor took over.

None of this will stop Mr Hunt and Mr Sunak putting as positive a gloss on the economic update as they can. But their task will not be easy.

Business

Apollo-owned ABC Technologies in £800m raid on London-listed auto supplier

Published

6 hours ago

September 13, 2024

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Apollo-owned ABC Technologies in £800m raid on London-listed auto supplier

A London-listed automotive components supplier has become the latest British-based company to draw overseas takeover interest after receiving a series of offers from a Canadian rival.

Sky News has learnt that TI Fluid Systems has received at least two bid proposals from ABC Technologies Holdings, a Canadian competitor.

City sources said on Friday evening that the second of the offers had valued TI Fluid Systems at 180p-a-share – a significant premium to its closing price on Friday of 145.8p.

Shares in the company rose by more than 7% on Friday amid market rumours about a potential bid.

TI Fluid Systems floated in London in October 2017 at a price of 255p-a-share.

One source said the company’s board, which is chaired by Tim Cobbold, a former boss of banknote printer De La Rue, was unlikely to seriously consider a proposal unless it was pitched at closer to 200p-a-share.

Both parties are likely to come under pressure from the Takeover Panel to confirm the interest from ABC Technologies over the weekend, or at the latest on Monday morning.

TI Fluid Systems operates from 98 manufacturing locations in 27 countries.

It specialises in the production of fluid handling and thermal management systems.

The company traces its roots back to 1922, when it began trading as Harry Bundy and Company.

A string of London-listed companies have agreed to takeovers by foreign or private equity bidders this year, the latest of which came this week when Centamin, a gold miner, accepted a £1.9bn offer from AngloGold Ashanti of South Africa.

On Friday, Apollo and TI Fluid Systems both declined to comment.

Business

Mail Online and Sun take axe to US-based workforces

Published

14 hours ago

September 13, 2024

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Mail Online and Sun take axe to US-based workforces

Two of Britain’s biggest newspaper publishers are taking the axe to their US workforces, slashing scores of jobs in the latest evidence of mounting financial pressures across the media sector.

Sky News has learnt that News UK, the publisher of The Sun, and DMGT, owner of the Daily Mail, have this week announced sweeping internal restructurings in their digital operations on the other side of the Atlantic.

Industry sources said on Friday the two companies were cutting significant numbers of employees in the US, where The Sun launched an American edition online four years ago.

By coincidence, the two sets of cutbacks are understood to have been launched on the same day.

DMGT launched Dailymail.com in the US in 2010, and is thought to employ about 200 people there, a reduction from roughly 260 seven years ago.

One insider said the DMGT layoffs represented just under 10% of its US workforce, while the proportion of The Sun’s US staff being let go is understood to be much higher.

A source close to News UK, which is part of Rupert Murdoch’s media empire, denied it was as high as 80%.

The company is thought to employ about 100 people on The Sun’s US platform.

One media analyst said the redundancies, which have not been announced publicly, were a reflection of the “intense” pressure on news media brands, even in areas where their digital audiences had gained significant momentum.

A spokesperson for The Sun said: “The US Sun has been an incredibly successful business, driving billions of page views.

“However the digital landscape has experienced seismic change in the last 12 months and we need to reset the strategy and resize the team to secure the long term, sustainable future for The Sun’s business in the US.”

A spokesperson for Associated Newspapers, the DMGT subsidiary which publishes the Daily Mail, said in response to an enquiry from Sky News: “We have made a small number of job cuts in some areas of our US editorial department.

“This was a difficult, but necessary decision, which will enable us to continue to invest in areas where we can grow our audience.”

Business

Investigation into potential second Post Office scandal will be ‘positive’ for sub-postmasters

Published

14 hours ago

September 13, 2024

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Investigation into potential second Post Office scandal will be 'positive' for sub-postmasters

The lawyer for those affected by Capture software predating the faulty Horizon system says his “belief” is that the “report is going to be positive”.

Neil Hudgell, a solicitor at Hudgell Solicitors, is representing over 40 former sub-postmasters who used Capture in the 1990s.

Dozens who used it claim they were wrongfully accused of stealing money from their Post Office branches, similar to the Horizon scandal.

Mr Hudgell told Sky News: “We need to see the report, we need to consider options.”

“But clearly, if it is a positive report”, he added, “and we are going to start talking about exoneration and compensation, then we need a process to reflect the ageing demographic of those involved, ie it needs to be quick, and we need to figure out what the quickest route is”.

Capture was introduced to some branches from 1992 – and was the predecessor to the faulty Horizon accounting software.

Under Horizon, hundreds of sub-postmasters were wrongly prosecuted between 1999 and 2015.

What’s happening with the report?

An independent investigation into Capture began in the summer and has now concluded.

It was carried out by risk advisory and financial solutions company Kroll.

The report has now been passed to the Department for Business and Trade.

Former sub-postmaster Steve Marston believes he was falsely convicted of theft due to “glitches” in Capture software.

The personal toll

Shortfalls of £79,000 were found at his branch in Greater Manchester.

Earlier this year, he met the then Post Office minister Kevin Hollinrake when it was agreed that an independent IT expert would assess evidence claiming to “prove” Capture software was faulty.

Mr Marston said that “as a group” he believes those affected have provided “an overwhelming amount of evidence to show that Capture was totally unfit for use and should never have been released”.

He claims that sub-postmasters were told that “Capture would make our lives easier and that we would no longer have to do manual accounting as we had in the past”.

He says he was given the software by the Post Office “and basically left to get on with it without any sort of guidance”.

He describes “extra stress” and that he and his wife “are struggling” whilst waiting for the conclusions to the Kroll report.

Campaigners discovered old floppy disks earlier this year with the Capture software on them and passed them on to investigators.

Mr Marston, and other sub-postmasters, say they show that errors in the system could generate false shortfalls in accounts and believe Capture evidence was used in his prosecution.

They also claim that it appears that errors occurred when upgrades were made to the software.

Other factors such as power cuts are also thought to be another possible reason for faults.

The Kroll report is due to be released in the next few weeks.

A Department for Business and Trade spokesperson said: “We will thoroughly examine Kroll’s report into the Capture system and its impact on postmasters and set out next steps in due course.”