Autumn statement unlikely to put big dent in tax burden – here’s why
It’s autumn statement time.
Once upon a time, these winter budgets used to be brief updates on the fiscal forecasts, never overshadowing the far more substantial main budget in the spring. Or at least so we’re told.
In practice, for as long as I’ve been covering economics, the autumn statement (or, as Gordon Brown used to call it, the pre-budget report) has simply been the chancellor’s second bite of the fiscal apple – a budget in all but name.
In other words, these statements are quite a big deal.
They have been used to raise taxes and cut them, to lift spending and lower it.
Indeed, it was at Jeremy Hunt’s first autumn statement last year that he introduced some of the tough measures designed to clear up the economic mess following predecessor Kwasi Kwarteng’s mini-budget – freezing income tax and national insurance thresholds all the way until 2028, consigning millions of families to higher taxes.
This time around, we’re all being told that the story will be very different – in particular that tax cuts are now imminent.
We’ll get to those cuts in a moment – and the bizarre pantomime of a government claiming it is cutting taxes even as it does precisely the opposite – but let’s start by getting the “headroom” stuff out of the way.
If you’ve been following any of the coverage of the impending autumn statement, you’ll doubtless have read about how the chancellor may now be ready to start cutting taxes, because he’s been told he has enough “headroom” to do so.
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Chancellor Jeremy Hunt has said
It all sounds rather scientific, doesn’t it – as if a universal measure of fiscal probity has determined that now would be a sensible point to reduce taxation. Except, of course, it isn’t.
Actually in this case, “headroom” means something very specific indeed.
This government, like most of its predecessors since Gordon Brown, has set itself some fiscal rules designed to shore up confidence in its policymaking.
The main rule facing Mr Hunt is that he has committed to getting the national debt falling as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) within five years.
This is, I can’t emphasise enough, a self-imposed rule. Sure: in the light of what happened to the previous Tory government (which briefly eschewed fiscal rules) there’s a strong argument for these rules. But they are not, by any means, tablets of stone.
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Autumn statement 2023: What could the chancellor announce?
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Labour’s plans for the economy
Regardless, the debt rule is where that notion of “headroom” comes from. By the end of the five-year forecast horizon mapped out in March (the budget – the last time these figures wreak havoc updated) the UK’s net debt was falling ever so slightly. The fall was equivalent to roughly £6.5bn. Voila: that’s the headroom!
Roll on another six months and a few things have changed.
First, the economy looks a bit bigger than it did in March. This is partly because it has grown a little faster than expected, but mostly because the Office for National Statistics has reassessed its opinion of the size of the economy.
Also, because inflation was higher than expected, the cash size of the economy looks a bit bigger, while the national debt’s size is less changed.
Tot it all up and, due to these mostly statistical artefacts, all of a sudden the national debt as a percentage of that GDP figure looks a bit smaller. The upshot is the apparent “headroom” against this rule is significantly larger: possibly £15bn or maybe even over £20bn.
These sums are, it’s worth underlining, quite arbitrary. They mostly don’t reflect either that the economy is much healthier than it was back in March, or indeed that the government’s decisions have made much difference to the scale of the national debt. They are marked against an entirely self-written fiscal rule. And anyway, the “headroom” the chancellor is left with is still smaller than his predecessors tended to enjoy.
Despite all of those provisos, the government is likely to use these rules as a justification to start cutting taxes.
Yet there’s a big proviso here too. The total tax burden (the amount of taxes we as a country pay as a percentage of our national income) is rising.
Indeed, on the basis of the latest Office for Budget Responsibility numbers, it’s far higher now than it was before Rishi Sunak became prime minister, and is set to rise to the highest level since comparable records began in 1948.
These are the pieces of context it’s worth bearing in mind ahead of this event.
The economy is flatlining. The scale of Britain’s total debt is now far, far higher than before the pandemic. And it’s hard to envisage a scenario where the overall tax burden ends the coming year lower than when this chancellor took over.
None of this will stop Mr Hunt and Mr Sunak putting as positive a gloss on the economic update as they can. But their task will not be easy.
Business
Post Office scandal: Victims say government’s control of redress schemes should be taken away
Post Office scandal victims are calling for redress schemes to be taken away from the government completely, ahead of the public inquiry publishing its first findings.
Phase 1, which is due back on Tuesday, will report on the human impact of what happened as well as compensation schemes.
“Take (them) off the government completely,” says Jo Hamilton OBE, a high-profile campaigner and former sub-postmistress, who was convicted of stealing from her branch in 2008.
“It’s like the fox in charge of the hen house,” she adds, “because they were the only shareholders of Post Office“.
“So they’re in it up to their necks… So why should they be in charge of giving us financial redress?”
Nearly a third of Ms Hamilton’s life has been dominated by the scandal
Jo and others are hoping Sir Wyn Williams, chairman of the public statutory inquiry, will make recommendations for an independent body to take control of redress schemes.
The inquiry has been examining the Post Office scandal which saw more than 700 people wrongfully convicted between 1999 and 2015.
Sub-postmasters were forced to pay back false accounting shortfalls because of the faulty IT system, Horizon.
At the moment, the Department for Business and Trade administers most of the redress schemes including the Horizon Conviction Redress Scheme and the Group Litigation Order (GLO) Scheme.
The Post Office is still responsible for the Horizon Shortfall scheme.
Lee Castleton OBE
Lee Castleton OBE, another victim of the scandal, was bankrupted in 2007 when he lost his case in the civil courts representing himself against the Post Office.
The civil judgment against him, however, still stands.
“It’s the oddest thing in the world to be an OBE, fighting for justice, while still having the original case standing against me,” he tells Sky News.
While he has received an interim payment he has not applied to a redress scheme.
“The GLO scheme – that’s there on the table for me to do,” he says, “but I know that they would use my original case, still standing against me, in any form of redress.
“So they would still tell me repeatedly that the court found me to be liable and therefore they only acted on the court’s outcome.”
He agrees with other victims who want the inquiry this week to recommend “taking the bad piece out” of redress schemes.
“The bad piece is the company – Post Office Limited,” he continues, “and the government – they need to be outside.
“When somebody goes to court, even if it’s a case against the Department for Business and Trade (DBT), when they go to court DBT do not decide what the outcome is.
“A judge decides, a third party decides, a right-minded individual a fair individual, that’s what needs to happen.”
Pic: AP
Mr Castleton is also taking legal action against the Post Office and Fujitsu – the first individual victim to sue the organisations for compensation and “vindication” in court.
“I want to hear why it happened, to hear what I believe to be the truth, to hear what they believe to be the truth and let the judge decide.”
Neil Hudgell, a lawyer for victims, said he expects the first inquiry report this week may be “really rather damning” of the redress claim process describing “inconsistencies”, “bureaucracy” and “delays”.
“The over-lawyeringness of it,” he adds, “the minute analysis, micro-analysis of detail, the inability to give people fully the benefit of doubt.
“All those things I think are going to be part and parcel of what Sir Wynn says about compensation.
“And we would hope, not going to say expect because history’s not great, we would hope it’s a springboard to an acceleration, a meaningful acceleration of that process.”
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June: Post Office knew about faulty IT system
A Department for Business and Trade spokesperson said they were “grateful” for the inquiry’s work describing “the immeasurable suffering” victims endured.
Their statement continued: “This government has quadrupled the total amount paid to affected postmasters to provide them with full and fair redress, with more than £1bn having now been paid to thousands of claimants.
“We will also continue to work with the Post Office, who have already written to over 24,000 postmasters, to ensure that everyone who may be eligible for redress is given the opportunity to apply for it.”
Octopus Energy Group, Britain’s largest residential gas and electricity supplier, is plotting a £10bn demerger of its technology arm that would reinforce its status as one of the country’s most valuable private companies.
Sky News can exclusively reveal that Octopus Energy is close to hiring investment bankers to help formally separate Kraken Technologies from the rest of the group.
The demerger, which would be expected to take place in the next 12 months, would see Octopus Energy’s existing investors given shares in the newly independent Kraken business.
A minority stake in Kraken of up to 20% is expected to be sold to external shareholders in order to help validate the technology platform’s valuation, according to insiders.
One banking source said that Kraken could be valued at as much as $14bn (£10.25bn) in a forthcoming demerger.
Citi, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley are among the investment banks invited to pitch for the demerger mandate in recent weeks.
A deal will augment Octopus Energy chief executive Greg Jackson’s paper fortune, and underline his success at building a globally significant British-based company over the last decade.
Octopus Energy now has 7.5m retail customers in Britain, following its 2022 rescue of the collapsed energy supplier Bulb, and the subsequent acquisition of Shell’s home energy business.
In January, it announced that it had become the country’s biggest supplier – surpassing Centrica-owned British Gas – with a 24% market share.
It also has a further 2.5m customers outside the UK.
Kraken is an operating system licensed to other energy providers, water companies and telecoms suppliers. Pic: Octopus
Sources said a £10bn valuation of Kraken would now imply that the whole group, including the retail supply business, was worth in the region of £15bn or more.
That would be double its valuation of just over a year ago, when the company announced that it had secured new backing from funds Galvanize Climate Solutions and Lightrock.
Shortly before that, former US vice president Al Gore’s firm, Generation Investment Management, and the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board increased their stakes in Octopus Energy in a transaction valuing the company at $9bn (£7.2bn).
Kraken is an operating system which is licensed to other energy providers, water companies and telecoms suppliers.
It connects all parts of the energy system, including customer billing and the flexible management of renewable generation and energy devices such as heat pumps and electric vehicle batteries.
The business also unlocks smart grids which enable people to use more renewable energy when there is an abundant supply of it.
In the UK, its platform is licensed to Octopus Energy’s rivals EON and EDF Energy, as well as the water company Severn Trent and broadband provider Cuckoo.
Overseas, Kraken serves Origin Energy in Australia, Japan’s Tokyo Gas and Plentitude in countries including France and Greece.
Its biggest coup came recently, when it struck a deal with National Grid in the US to serve 6.5m customers in New York and Massachusetts.
Sources said other major licensing agreements in the US were expected to be struck in the coming months.
Kraken, which is chaired by Gavin Patterson, the former BT Group chief executive, is now contracted to more than 70m customer accounts globally – putting it easily on track to hit a target of 100m by 2027.
Earlier this year, Mr Jackson said that target now risked being seen as “embarrassingly unambitious”.
Last July, Kraken recruited Amir Orad, a former boss of NICE Actimize, a US-listed provider of enterprise software to global banks and Fortune 500 companies, as its first chief executive.
A demerger of Kraken will trigger speculation about an eventual public market listing of the business.
Its growth in the US, and the relative public market valuations of technology companies in New York and London, may put the UK at a disadvantage when Kraken eventually considers where to list.
One key advantage of demerging Kraken from the rest of Octopus Energy Group would be to remove the perception of a conflict of interest among potential customers of the technology platform.
A source said the unified corporate ownership of both businesses had acted as a deterrent to some energy suppliers.
Kraken has also diversified beyond the energy sector, and earlier this year joined a consortium which was exploring a takeover bid for stricken Thames Water.
This weekend, Octopus Energy declined to comment.
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