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Markets are underestimating how persistent inflation will be in the next year and interest rates are likely to remain high as a result, the governor of the Bank of England has said.

Andrew Bailey told MPs that Bank rate is likely to be kept at an elevated level for a “significant” period in order to bring down inflation further following last week’s fall.

Mr Bailey told the Treasury select committee that despite inflation having passed the government’s target of halving this year, domestic “second-round” impacts mean the “last mile will be the hardest” as the Bank focuses on its mandate to return inflation to the 2% target.

“I really think the market is putting too much weight on the current data releases and the fact that we’ve seen inflation come down quite rapidly, that’s good news obviously,” he said.

“We are concerned about the potential persistence of inflation as we go through the remainder of the journey down to 2% and I think the market is underestimating that.”

The governor said last week’s abrupt fall from 6.8% was the result of elevated energy prices falling out of the annual inflation calculation, but there were no more large “base effects” left to drop out of the figures.

“It [the fall] was obviously good news – it was largely news that we expected,” he said.

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“As we set out in the Monetary Policy Report, we expect a little bit more of what I would call this unwinding of last year’s external shocks to come through. We’re not going to get another one like last week though; that’s the last of those base effects to come through.”

Speaking 24 hours ahead of the chancellor’s autumn statement, Mr Bailey refused to be drawn on whether Prime Minister Rishi Sunak had played any role in cutting inflation from January’s peak of more than 11%, or whether tax rises of any kind could be considered inflationary.

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‘We are beginning to win inflation battle’

The Bank’s most recent forecast is that inflation will fall to 3% next year and return to the 2% target in 2025.

Mr Bailey said food price inflation should fall further by the end of the first quarter of next year, but that consumers were still feeling the impact of the Ukraine war in weekly grocery shopping.

He said anxiety about the cost and availability of key inputs like fertiliser meant farmers had “locked in higher prices” by agreeing higher prices on long-term supply deals that were yet to fall away.

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Inflation drop: Good news?

Deputy governor Dave Ramsden told MPs constraints on the supply side of the economy were effectively a “speed limit” on growth despite quite resilient demand.

Wage inflation, currently above 7%, was a key factor particularly in the services sector, which accounts for close to half of inflation, and where pay accounts for 60% of costs.

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He also pointed to the relative lack of business investment in the UK economy since the Brexit referendum in the summer of 2016.

“Business investment is 6% higher than in the second quarter of 2016, before the Brexit referendum, that’s an average of less than 1% a year. In that time US business investment has gone up 25%.”

In spiky exchanges with MP’s Mr Bailey also denied the central bank had been “behind the curve” in addressing inflation.

“We were the first major central bank to raise rates, so that is not true,” he said.

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Sir Jim Ratcliffe scolds Tories over handling of economy and immigration after Brexit

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Sir Jim Ratcliffe scolds Tories over handling of economy and immigration after Brexit

Billionaire Sir Jim Ratcliffe has told Sky News that Britain is ready for a change of government after scolding the Conservatives over their handling of the economy and immigration after Brexit.

While insisting his petrochemicals conglomerate INEOS is apolitical, Sir Jim backed Brexit and spent last weekend with Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer at Manchester United – the football club he now runs as minority owner.

“I’m sure Keir will do a very good job at running the country – I have no questions about that,” Sir Jim said in an exclusive interview.

“There’s no question that the Conservatives have had a good run,” he added. “I think most of the country probably feels it’s time for a change. And I sort of get that, really.”

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Sir Jim was a prominent backer of leaving the European Union in the 2016 referendum but now has issues with how Brexit was delivered by Tory prime ministers.

“Brexit sort of unfortunately didn’t turn out as people anticipated because… Brexit was largely about immigration,” Sir Jim said.

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“That was the biggest component of that vote. People were getting fed up with the influx of the city of Southampton coming in every year. I think last year it was two times Southampton.

“I mean, no small island like the UK could cope with vast numbers of people coming into the UK.

“I mean, it just overburdens the National Health Service, the traffic service, the police, everybody.

“The country was designed for 55 or 60 million people and we’ve got 70 million people and all the services break down as a consequence.

“That’s what Brexit was all about and nobody’s implemented that. They just keep talking about it. But nothing’s been done, which is why I think we’ll finish up with the change of government.”

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UK needs to get ‘sharper on the business front’

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has indicated an election is due this year but Monaco-based Sir Jim is unimpressed by the Conservatives’ handling of the economy.

“The UK does need to get a bit sharper on the business front,” he said. “I think the biggest objective for the government is to create growth in the economy.

“There’s two parts of the economy, there’s the services side of the economy and there’s the manufacturing side. And the manufacturing, unfortunately, has been sliding away now for the last 25 years.

“We were very similar in scale to Germany probably 25 years ago.

“But today we’re just a fraction of where Germany is and I think that isn’t healthy for the British economy… particularly when you think the north of England is very manufacturing based, and that talks to things like energy competitiveness, it talks to things like, why do you put an immensely high tax on the North Sea?

“That just disincentivises people from finding hydrocarbons in the North Sea, in energy.

“And what we need is competitive energy. So I mean, in America, in the energy world, in the oil and gas world, they just apply a corporation tax to the oil and gas companies, which is about 30%. And in the UK we’ve got this tax of 75% because we want to kill off the oil and gas companies.

“But if we don’t have competitive energy, we’re not going to have a healthy manufacturing industry. And that just makes no sense to me at all. No.”

‘We’re apolitical’

Asked about INEOS donating to Labour, Sir Jim replied: “We’re apolitical, INEOS.

“We just want a successful manufacturing sector in the UK and we’ve talked to the government about that. It’s pretty clear about our views.”

Sir Jim was keener to talk about the economy and politics than his role at struggling Manchester United, which he bought a 27.7% stake in from the American Glazer family in February – giving him an even higher business profile.

Old Trafford stadium in Manchester. Pic: AP
Image:
Old Trafford stadium in Manchester. Pic: AP

Push for stadium of the North

He is continuing to push for public funds to regenerate Old Trafford and the surrounding areas despite no apparent political support being forthcoming. Sir Keir was hosted at the stadium for a Premier League match last weekend just as heavy rain exposed the fragility of the ageing venue.

“There’s a very good case, in my view, for having a stadium of the North, which would serve the northern part of the country in that arena of football,” Sir Jim said. “If you look at the number of Champions League the North West has won, it’s 10. London has won two.

“And yet everybody from the North has to get down to London to watch a big football match. And there should be one [a large stadium] in the North, in my view.

“But it’s also important for the southern side of Manchester, you know, to regenerate.

“It’s the sort of second capital of the country where the Industrial Revolution began.

“But if you have a regeneration project, you need a nucleus or a regeneration project and having that world-class stadium there, I think would provide the impetus to regenerate that region.”

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Marks & Spencer’s website and app go down

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Marks & Spencer's website and app go down

Marks & Spencer’s website and app has not been working for several hours, with a message telling shoppers “you can’t shop with us right now”.

“We’re working hard to be back online as soon as possible,” it adds.

All the menus and images have disappeared apart from one showing a model in a green jacket.

Customers trying to use the app got the message: “Sorry you can’t shop through the app right now. We’re busy making some planned changes, but will be back soon.”

The site is understood to have been down for several hours.

Replying to one customer on X, the retailer said: “We’re experiencing some technical issues but we are working on it.”

M&S is the latest high street name to have technical issues – last month some Sainsbury’s shoppers had problems with their online orders.

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The outage comes a few days before M&S is expected to reveal a big jump in annual profits.

It’s been a successful year for the brand, with strong sales across the business following a turnaround plan that has included store closures and cost cutting.

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Employees at fintech giant Revolut to cash in with $500m share sale

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Employees at fintech giant Revolut to cash in with 0m share sale

Bosses at Revolut, Britain’s biggest fintech, are drawing up plans to allow employees to cash in with a sale of stock valued at hundreds of millions of pounds.

Sky News has learnt that the banking and payments services provider is lining up investment bankers to coordinate a secondary share sale worth in the region of $500m (£394m).

Morgan Stanley, the Wall Street bank, is expected to be engaged to work on the proposed stock offering, which will take place later this year.

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City sources said this weekend that Nik Storonsky, Revolut’s co-founder and chief executive, was determined to seek a valuation of at least the $33bn (£26bn) it secured in a primary funding round in 2021.

“This will not be a down-round,” said one person familiar with Revolut’s thinking.

Although the fintech, which has more than 40 million customers, is not planning to raise new capital as part of the transaction, any sizeable share sale will still be closely watched across the global fintech sector.

It is expected to be restricted to company employees.

Revolut ranks among the world’s largest financial technology businesses, with revenue virtually doubling last year to around £1.7bn, according to figures expected to be published in the coming months.

Founded in 2015, it has experienced a string of regulatory and compliance challenges, with reports last year highlighting its release of funds from accounts flagged by the National Crime Agency as suspicious.

The company’s growth has taken place at breakneck speed, with customer numbers soaring from 16.4m at the point of the Series E fundraising nearly three years ago.

Pic: Revolut
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The company’s growth has taken place at breakneck speed. Pic: Revolut

Insiders argued that despite the protracted downturn in tech valuations over the last two years, Revolut’s relentless expansion would easily justify it maintaining its status as Britain’s most valuable fintech.

Monzo, the UK-based digital bank, recently confirmed a Sky News story that it had closed a funding round worth nearly £500m, including backing from an arm of Google’s owner, Alphabet, and a Singaporean sovereign wealth fund.

Elsewhere, however, the funding landscape has been bleaker, with a growing number of tech companies which had attracted unicorn valuations of more than $1bn now struggling to stay afloat.

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Revolut has allotted stock options to many of its 10,000 employees as part of their compensation packages, although it was unclear how many would be eligible to dispose of equity in the transaction later this year.

A source close to the company said it had had numerous expressions of interest from prospective investors.

Revolut’s current shareholders include SoftBank’s Vision Fund and Tiger Global.

News of the proposed share sale comes as Revolut’s investors continue to await positive news about its application for a UK banking licence.

A smartphone displays a Revolut logo on top of banknotes
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Revolut applied for a UK banking licence more than three years ago. Pic: Reuters

The company applied to regulators to become a bank in Britain more than three years ago, but has so far failed to secure approval.

Mr Storonsky has been publicly critical of the delay, and last year questioned the approach of British regulators and politicians, as he suggested that he would not contemplate a listing on the London Stock Exchange.

An initial public offering of Revolut appears to still be some way off, although it would not surprise investors or industry peers if it initiated a listing process in the next couple of years.

One person close to Revolut said board members were among those expected to participate in the secondary share sale, although further details were unclear this weekend.

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The company is chaired by Martin Gilbert, the City veteran who has faced governance and performance challenges at Assetco, the London-listed asset manager he runs.

Its other directors include Michael Sherwood, the former Goldman Sachs executive who was jointly responsible for its operations outside the US and who was regarded as one of the most skilled traders of his generation.

An external shareholder in the company said the exclusion of non-employees from the deal could draw criticism from some investors.

Revolut has conducted secondary share sales of this kind in the past, including after its 2021 Series E round.

This weekend, Revolut declined to comment.

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