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Jeremy Hunt will claim the economy is “back on track” in an autumn statement that is expected to prioritise tax cuts and economic growth.

The chancellor is expected to say the government’s plan for the economy is “working” but “the work is not done” as he unveils measures to boost business investment by £20bn a year, cut tax and get more people into work.

Mr Hunt will also set out decisions to grow the economy, reduce debt and return inflation to the Bank of England target of 2% – building further on Mr Sunak’s pledge to halve inflation by the end of the year.

Politics latest: Tories ‘running out of time’ – so expect tax cuts

After keeping coy about the prospect of tax cuts, they now appear to be firmly on the table as Mr Hunt vows to “reject big government, high spending and high tax because we know that leads to less growth, not more”.

But Labour’s shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves claimed the Tories were the party of “high tax”, adding: “Nothing the chancellor says or does in his autumn statement can change their appalling record.”

The hint of tax cuts comes after a Sky News poll of polls put the Tories 20 points behind Labour,

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This is a worse margin than where Rishi Sunak was at the start of the autumn, when the Conservatives were an average of 18 points behind.

National insurance expected to be cut and national living wage increased

Among the key measures expected to be announced is a possible cut to national insurance contributions.

The government is also hoping to incentivise work by shaking up the welfare system and increasing the national living wage, which will rise from £10.42 to £11.44 from April and will benefit workers aged 21 and over, rather than 23 and over.

It will mean an £1,800 annual pay rise next year for a full-time worker on the living wage, while 18 to 20-year-olds will receive a £1.11 hourly rise to £8.60.

Mr Hunt is expected to say in his statement: “After a global pandemic and energy crisis, we have taken difficult decisions to put our economy back on track.

“We have supported families with rising bills, cut borrowing and halved inflation.

“The economy has grown. Real incomes have risen.

“Our plan for the British economy is working. But the work is not done.

“Conservatives know that a dynamic economy depends less on the decisions and diktats of ministers than on the energy and enterprise of the British people.”

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Ahead of Wednesday’s autumn statement, Sky News’ Ed Conway says the chancellor needs to get the national debt falling.

In total, the chancellor is expected to announce 110 different growth measures for businesses, including plans to cut tax, remove planning red tape and speed up access to the national grid.

Meanwhile, there will also be support for entrepreneurs to raise capital policies to unlock foreign direct investment and to boost productivity.

“Taken together we will increase business investment in the UK economy by around £20bn a year over the next decade and get Britain growing,” Mr Hunt will say.

The chancellor is expected to take advantage of headroom in the public finances – created as a result of higher wages and the freeze in income tax thresholds – to reduce taxes while also sticking to his fiscal rules.

They dictate that the government should have debt falling in the fifth year of the economic forecast and that borrowing should be less than 3% of gross domestic product (GDP).

In an interview with Sky News, former home secretary Dame Priti Patel expressed her desire to see tax cuts.

“This government has got the highest tax take in 70 years,” she said.

“I am an absolute advocate of making sure that hard-pressed taxpayers can keep more of their money. And you know, that is through tax cuts.

“And there are ways in which that can be achieved through targeted tax cuts, such as addressing the conundrum of fiscal drag where so many more people get dragged into the higher tax.”

Read more:
Autumn statement unlikely to put big dent in tax burden – here’s why

Fiscal headroom and thresholds – what key autumn statement terms mean
A look at the polls might explain Tories’ new zeal for tax cuts | Beth Rigby

Mr Hunt will also pledge to “reform welfare” in the autumn statement after already confirming a £2.5bn Back to Work plan, which aims to bring 1.1 million people back in the workforce.

Measures in the plan including removing benefits such as free prescriptions and legal aid from job seekers who are judged not to be looking for work.

Ms Reeves said: “After 13 years of economic failure under the Conservatives, working people are worse off.

“Prices are still rising in the shops, energy bills are up and mortgage payments are higher after the Conservatives crashed the economy.

“The 25 Tory tax rises since 2019 are the clearest sign of economic failure, with households paying £4,000 more in tax each year than they did in 2010.

“The Conservatives have become the party of high tax because they are the party of low growth. Nothing the chancellor says or does in his autumn statement can change their appalling record.”

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Lloyds Banking Group in talks to buy digital wallet provider Curve

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Lloyds Banking Group in talks to buy digital wallet provider Curve

Britain’s biggest high street bank is in talks to buy Curve, the digital wallet provider, amid growing regulatory pressure on Apple to open its payment services to rivals.

Sky News has learnt that Lloyds Banking Group is in advanced discussions to acquire Curve for a price believed to be up to £120m.

City sources said this weekend that if the negotiations were successfully concluded, a deal could be announced by the end of September.

Curve was founded by Shachar Bialick, a former Israeli special forces soldier, in 2016.

Three years later, he told an interviewer: “In 10 years time we are going to be IPOed [listed on the public equity markets]… and hopefully worth around $50bn to $60bn.”

One insider said this weekend that Curve was being advised by KBW, part of the investment bank Stifel, on the discussions with Lloyds.

If a mooted price range of £100m-£120m turns out to be accurate, that would represent a lower valuation than the £133m Curve raised in its Series C funding round, which concluded in 2023.

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That round included backing from Britannia, IDC Ventures, Cercano Management – the venture arm of Microsoft co-founder Paul Allen’s estate – and Outward VC.

It was also reported to have raised more than £40m last year, while reducing employee numbers and suspending its US expansion.

In total, the company has raised more than £200m in equity since it was founded.

Curve has been positioned as a rival to Apple Pay in recent years, having initially launched as an app enabling consumers to combine their debit and credit cards in a single wallet.

One source close to the prospective deal said that Lloyds had identified Curve as a strategically attractive bid target as it pushes deeper into payments infrastructure under chief executive Charlie Nunn.

Lloyds is also said to believe that Curve would be a financially rational asset to own because of the fees Apple charges consumers to use its Apple Pay service.

In March, the Financial Conduct Authority and Payment Systems Regulator began working with the Competition and Markets Authority to examine the implications of the growth of digital wallets owned by Apple and Google.

Lloyds owns stakes in a number of fintechs, including the banking-as-a-service platform ThoughtMachine, but has set expanding its tech capabilities as a key strategic objective.

The group employs more than 70,000 people and operates more than 750 branches across Britain.

Curve is chaired by Lord Fink, the former Man Group chief executive who has become a prolific investor in British technology start-ups.

When he was appointed to the role in January, he said: “Working alongside Curve as an investor, I have had a ringside seat to the company’s unassailable and well-earned rise.

“Beginning as a card which combines all your cards into one, to the all-encompassing digital wallet it has evolved into, Curve offers a transformative financial management experience to its users.

“I am proud to have been part of the journey so far, and welcome the chance to support the company through its next, very significant period of growth.”

IDC Ventures, one of the investors in Curve’s Series C funding round, said at the time of its last major fundraising: “Thanks to their unique technology…they have the capability to intercept the transaction and supercharge the customer experience, with its Double Dip Rewards, [and] eliminating nasty hidden fees.

“And they do it seamlessly, without any need for the customer to change the cards they pay with.”

News of the talks between Lloyds and Curve comes days before Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, is expected to outline plans to bolster Britain’s fintech sector by endorsing a concierge service to match start-ups with investors.

Lord Fink declined to comment when contacted by Sky News on Saturday morning, while Curve did not respond to an enquiry sent by email.

Lloyds also declined to comment, while Stifel KBW could not be reached for comment.

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UK economy figures not as bad as they look despite GDP fall, analysts say

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UK economy figures not as bad as they look despite GDP fall, analysts say

The UK economy unexpectedly shrank in May, even after the worst of Donald Trump’s tariffs were paused, official figures showed.

A standard measure of economic growth, gross domestic product (GDP), contracted 0.1% in May, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

Rather than a fall being anticipated, growth of 0.1% was forecast by economists polled by Reuters as big falls in production and construction were seen.

It followed a 0.3% contraction in April, when Mr Trump announced his country-specific tariffs and sparked a global trade war.

A 90-day pause on these import taxes, which has been extended, allowed more normality to resume.

This was borne out by other figures released by the ONS on Friday.

Exports to the United States rose £300m but “remained relatively low” following a “substantial decrease” in April, the data said.

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Overall, there was a “large rise in goods imports and a fall in goods exports”.

A ‘disappointing’ but mixed picture

It’s “disappointing” news, Chancellor Rachel Reeves said. She and the government as a whole have repeatedly said growing the economy was their number one priority.

“I am determined to kickstart economic growth and deliver on that promise”, she added.

But the picture was not all bad.

Growth recorded in March was revised upwards, further indicating that companies invested to prepare for tariffs. Rather than GDP of 0.2%, the ONS said on Friday the figure was actually 0.4%.

It showed businesses moved forward activity to be ready for the extra taxes. Businesses were hit with higher employer national insurance contributions in April.

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The expansion in March means the economy still grew when the three months are looked at together.

While an interest rate cut in August had already been expected, investors upped their bets of a 0.25 percentage point fall in the Bank of England’s base interest rate.

Such a cut would bring down the rate to 4% and make borrowing cheaper.

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Is Britain going bankrupt?

Analysts from economic research firm Pantheon Macro said the data was not as bad as it looked.

“The size of the manufacturing drop looks erratic to us and should partly unwind… There are signs that GDP growth can rebound in June”, said Pantheon’s chief UK economist, Rob Wood.

Why did the economy shrink?

The drops in manufacturing came mostly due to slowed car-making, less oil and gas extraction and the pharmaceutical industry.

The fall was not larger because the services industry – the largest part of the economy – expanded, with law firms and computer programmers having a good month.

It made up for a “very weak” month for retailers, the ONS said.

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UK economy remains fragile – and there are risks and traps lurking around the corner

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UK economy remains fragile - and there are risks and traps lurking around the corner

Monthly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures are volatile and, on their own, don’t tell us much.

However, the picture emerging a year since the election of the Labour government is not hugely comforting.

This is a government that promised to turbocharge economic growth, the key to improving livelihoods and the public finances. Instead, the economy is mainly flatlining.

Output shrank in May by 0.1%. That followed a 0.3% drop in April.

Ministers were celebrating a few months ago as data showed the economy grew by 0.7% in the first quarter.

Hangover from artificial growth

However, the subsequent data has shown us that much of that growth was artificial, with businesses racing to get orders out of the door to beat the possible introduction of tariffs. Property transactions were also brought forward to beat stamp duty changes.

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In April, we experienced the hangover as orders and industrial output dropped. Services also struggled as demand for legal and conveyancing services dropped after the stamp duty changes.

Many of those distortions have now been smoothed out, but the manufacturing sector still struggled in May.

Signs of recovery

Manufacturing output fell by 1% in May, but more up-to-date data suggests the sector is recovering.

“We expect both cars and pharma output to improve as the UK-US trade deal comes into force and the volatility unwinds,” economists at Pantheon Macroeconomics said.

Meanwhile, the services sector eked out growth of 0.1%.

A 2.7% month-to-month fall in retail sales suppressed growth in the sector, but that should improve with hot weather likely to boost demand at restaurants and pubs.

Struggles ahead

It is unlikely, however, to massively shift the dial for the economy, the kind of shift the Labour government has promised and needs in order to give it some breathing room against its fiscal rules.

The economy remains fragile, and there are risks and traps lurking around the corner.

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Is Britain going bankrupt?

Concerns that the chancellor, Rachel Reeves, is considering tax hikes could weigh on consumer confidence, at a time when businesses are already scaling back hiring because of national insurance tax hikes.

Inflation is also expected to climb in the second half of the year, further weighing on consumers and businesses.

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