CFP Anger Index: What’s the committee’s issue with the ACC?
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David Hale, ESPN Staff Writer
The committee will meet just twice more this year. So far, the job has been pretty easy: Copy, paste. Indeed, there has been so much chalk at the top of the rankings this year, it’s hardly worth the price of the flights for the committee to meet about it.
But even if the upsets haven’t sent the rankings into chaos just yet, it’s worth reconsidering some of the underlying assumptions we’ve used to inform the standings. Because 12 weeks into the 2023 season, there has not been much to be surprised about, but there’s always plenty to be angry about.
Losses by teams ranked in the AP top 8 at this point in…
2014 – 20
2015 – 17
2016 – 19
2017 – 17
2018 – 16
2019 – 12
2021 – 15
2022 – 15
2023 – 6**all were vs teams ranked 13 or better at the time.
— ??️♈️? (@ADavidHaleJoint) November 19, 2023
This is the part where we’re supposed to lament the Seminoles’ precipitous tumble from No. 4 to No. 5 after Jordan Travis was injured in a win over North Alabama.
Well, we’re not going to do that. Washington, as we noted each of the past two weeks, had as good a claim as any to the top four, and after its win against Oregon State in Week 12, it has vaulted into the No. 1 spot in ESPN’s strength of record. No one should be angry the Huskies are at No. 4. If anything, the Huskies should be upset they’re not higher.
The problem for Florida State is that’s where the conversation seems to end. But it shouldn’t.
Ohio State and Michigan each have résumés underpinned almost entirely by beating Penn State. Michigan’s next-best win is Maryland. Heck, eight of Michigan’s 11 wins have come against teams ranked 60th or worse in the Football Power Index (FPI). That’s a higher share of wins against bottom-half teams than Tulane. Ohio State’s second-best win is a last-second score against Notre Dame (when the Irish used only 10 defenders), a team Louisville — FSU’s ACC title game opponent — beat by 13. And how do we know Penn State is good? The Nittany Lions’ lone relevant win is over Iowa. Iowa, people! The Hawkeyes treat the forward pass like the Amish treat electric cars.
The season for both Michigan and Ohio State essentially comes down to which one beats the other, a borderline one-game season, yet there’s no question whatsoever that the winner will be in the playoff.
FSU, though? Even if the Seminoles finish 13-0, there will be a chorus of folks who think they don’t belong because they play in the ACC or because they’ve played too many close games or, most significantly now, because they don’t have their starting QB.
Of course, it’s also worth noting that Stetson Bennett wasn’t Georgia‘s top quarterback option in 2021. Nor was Jake Fromm when the Bulldogs made it to the national title game in 2017. That 2017 game was won by a QB coming off the bench (Tua Tagovailoa). Trevor Lawrence wasn’t Clemson‘s starter for the first four weeks of 2018 when the Tigers won it all. Max Duggan lost the starting QB job for TCU coming out of fall camp last year, but he still led the Horned Frogs to the title game. And, of course, there’s Cardale Jones, who came to Ohio State’s rescue in 2014 and won the Buckeyes a national title.
Now, no one is confusing Tate Rodemaker with Tagovailoa or Lawrence, but is there any proof he can’t play at least as well as Jones, Bennett or Duggan? And the point here isn’t that anything is guaranteed for FSU post-Travis, but the history of No. 2 (or No. 3) QBs in September making noise in January is actually a lot more extensive than most folks remember.
So yes, Washington is deserving. So, too, is Florida State — with or without Travis. And if the Noles win the next two against Florida and Louisville, there shouldn’t be a second’s worth of debate. They’re in.
A few quick “did you knows” on the Cardinals:
Did you know Louisville has six wins against bowl-eligible Power 5 opponents? That’s more than any other team in the country.
Did you know Louisville has a road win over a ranked opponent, something Oregon, Alabama and Missouri are all missing from their résumés?
Did you know Louisville’s strength of record is better than Missouri’s?
And yes, Louisville lost to Pitt in a game in which its best offensive player had two touches and, in the rain and bad weather, the Cardinals turned the ball over three times.
The Pitt loss is an anchor dragging Louisville for understandable reasons, but it certainly seems as if a dominant win over Notre Dame or a road win against 8-3 NC State should count for something. And while this was largely semantics before Travis’ injury at Florida State, there’s a very real scenario now where Louisville runs the table the rest of the way and earns an ACC championship with a 12-1 record.
And if that happens, the committee has made it clear the Cards will still be at the back of the line when it comes to playoff positioning.
Let’s do a little blind résumé evaluation here:
Team A: 9-2, No. 17 in SP+ and No. 11 in strength of record; best win vs. SP+ No. 14, losses by a combined 19 points to teams ranked in the FPI top 40, one loss at home, one on the road
Team B: 9-2, No. 16 in SP+ and No. 8 strength of record; best win vs. SP+ No. 11, losses by a combined 49 points to teams ranked in the FPI top 40, both losses on the road
Team C: 9-2, No. 15 in SP+ and No. 13 strength of record; best win vs. SP+ No. 8, losses by a combined eight points to teams ranked in the FPI top 40, both losses on the road
Best win goes to Team C, closest losses go to Team C, and the best SP+ ranking goes to Team C. There’s more to the story, of course, but that’s a good starting point to say Team C is the best of the bunch, right?
Well, Team C is the Sooners. Team B is Ole Miss, ranked one spot higher, and Team A is Missouri, ranked four spots higher. Even Penn State comes in ahead of Oklahoma.
Oklahoma is being judged by its losses, and comparatively the close L’s to Kansas and Oklahoma State might seem a bit worse than blowout defeats at the hands of Georgia or LSU. But Oklahoma was probably the better team in both losses, but a bit of bad timing and bad luck (and a few bad plays) made the difference. Kansas is a solid team and was healthier when it beat Oklahoma. Oklahoma State wavers between a house cat and a lion, and the Sooners happened to catch the Pokes on a lion day. But they also beat Texas, a team that has legitimate national title aspirations, and that shows where Oklahoma’s ceiling is.
Where is Missouri’s or Penn State’s or Ole Miss’ ceiling? Not nearly so high.
4. Utah Utes (7-4, unranked)
We’ve reached the point in the season where four-loss teams are in the top 25, yet Utah isn’t one of them. Is that fair?
Well, the Utes are likely damaged by their current trend line — losses in three of four, two of which were by 28 or more. But it’s worth remembering all four losses were to teams currently in the committee’s top 16, while the Utes also have solid wins over Florida, UCLA and USC. Compare that to Tennessee, the highest ranked of the four-loss teams, and it’s a no-brainer. Utah has the better strength of record, a head-to-head win over a team that beat Tennessee and a higher-ranked best win (UCLA, No. 25 in SP+ for Utah; No. 33 Kentucky for Tennessee). And even if we’re taking a “What have you done for me lately?” approach, the Vols, too, are coming off back-to-back blowout losses.
Could this all be a conspiracy by the committee to prop up the SEC and hurt the eventual Pac-12 champion? You didn’t hear that from us.
To its credit, the committee has routinely overlooked the bottom-line win-loss record in favor of considering the context of those wins and losses. This is critical at the top of the rankings, but the same level of nuance isn’t always afforded to the bottom of the rankings. To which we give you the second-highest-ranked Group of 5 team: Liberty at No. 25.
The Flames are 11-0, which is laudable. But their best win came against New Mexico State in Week 2, a time before the Aggies had learned how to play football. Their second-best win came against Jacksonville State, a program in its first year of FBS play. All 11 of Liberty’s wins have come against teams ranked 80th or worse in the current FPI. Compare that to, say, Toledo (10-1 with a win over Miami-Ohio) or UNLV (9-2 with wins over San José State, Air Force and Vanderbilt) and it starts to seem as if Liberty benefits strictly from the zero in the loss column. But would you take Liberty over Illinois? That’s where Toledo’s loss came from. Or how about Michigan? Because half of UNLV’s losses came at the Big House.
The race for the Group of 5’s New Year’s Six bid is being led (rightfully) by Tulane, but if the Green Wave slip up in the final two weeks (vs. red-hot UTSA and SMU in the AAC championship), the bid shouldn’t belong to Liberty just because it had the easiest path to an undefeated season.
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Greg Wyshynski
Kyle Palmieri has signed a new two-year contract with the New York Islanders, as one of the better options among free-agent scoring wingers is now off the market.
Palmieri’s contract carries a $4.75 million average annual value. He’s coming off a 4-year, $20-million deal with the Islanders that was signed in Sept. 2021. According to PuckPedia, the new deal has a full no-trade clause in the first year with a modified 16-team no-trade list for the 2026-27 season.
Palmieri, a 34-year-old Long Island native, scored 48 points (24 goals, 24 assists) in 82 games with the Islanders last season. He’s scored more than 20 goals in seven of his last 10 NHL seasons.
In 900 career games with the Islanders, New Jersey Devils and Anaheim Ducks, Palmieri scored 527 points (270 goals, 257 assists). He scored 32 points (18 goals, 14 assists) in 68 Stanley Cup Playoff games.
The Islanders also signed defenseman Adam Boqvist to a one-year contract. He had 14 points in 35 games last season between the Florida Panthers and the Islanders, who claimed him on waivers in January.
New York has had a noteworthy offseason thus far. They won the NHL Draft Lottery for the first time since 2009, earning the first overall pick in next month’s entry draft. They also replaced general manager Lou Lamoriello with Tampa Bay Lightning executive Mathieu Darche, who was named the Islanders’ GM and executive vice president.
According to multiple reports, the contracts for Palmieri and Boqvist were agreed to before Darche was hired, and the new general manager honored them.
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Kiley McDaniel
As the NCAA regionals begin in college baseball, award voting and regular-season stats give you a good idea who performed well this season, while my draft rankings and mock drafts let you know who will go early in this summer’s draft. But which colleges can claim bragging rights for having the most pro talent on their rosters across all draft classes?
I have a bit of an obsession — but also detailed spreadsheets sourced from advanced data and scouts, so I can answer this question by examining how many players (regardless of class) project as future draft prospects.
Because the draft and projections for pro success look heavily at tools and age, those things are emphasized through the process once you get past the surface statistics in my formula.
I’ll remind you that these margins are really tight — if you add one second-rounder to any of the teams below, it will probably move up a few spots — and I used all pro-caliber players to formulate the ranking, even though we list just the top-two-rounds prospects on each team’s current roster below. Players who are currently injured count for this exercise, but I dinged the team rating a bit if you won’t see the player this postseason, and all players listed are 2025 draft-eligible unless otherwise indicated.
Without further delay, here are the most loaded rosters in college baseball:
1. Tennessee
Top-two-rounds prospects: LHP Liam Doyle, SS Gavin Kilen, 3B Andrew Fischer, RHP Marcus Phillips, C Levi Clark (2027), 3B Dean Curley, RHP A.J. Russell
Before I started this process, I figured the Volunteers would win, and they did, carried by a really strong 2025 draft class highlighted by Liam Doyle — who is projected to go No. 2 in my most recent mock.
And Tennessee has even more talent than the names listed above. RHP Tanner Franklin and Nate Snead are two key bullpen arms who reach the triple digits and didn’t qualify, while a number of other players could step up into top-two-round relevance with expanded roles next season, such as RHP Tegan Kuhns and 2B/CF Jay Abernathy.
2. Arkansas
Top-two-rounds prospects: SS Wehiwa Aloy, RHP Gage Wood, C Ryder Helfrick (2026), LHP Zach Root, OF Charles Davalan, LHP Cole Gibler (2027), RHP Gabe Gaeckle
The Razorbacks weren’t the first team I thought of when guessing who would be near the top of this ranking because they don’t have as many top-of-the-first-round prospects as some others, though they annually have tons of pro talent, so this isn’t a shocker.
Aloy is probably the one prospect projected for the top half of the first round of the group, but the rest of the list belongs in the late-first to early-second range, with a number of intriguing talents beyond that, including 3B Brent Iredale and about a half-dozen different pitchers.
3. LSU
Top-two-rounds prospects: LHP Kade Anderson, OF Derek Curiel (2026) RHP Casan Evans (2027), RHP Anthony Eyanson, SS Steven Milam (2026), RHP William Schmidt (2027), 2B Daniel Dickinson
The Tigers are often loaded with pro talent under skipper Jay Johnson, and this year is no different. Scouts soured a bit on Curiel as a high school senior, but he has proved them wrong as a freshman, looking like a first-rounder so far. Evans and Eyanson were revelations as newcomers, and Schmidt has the potential to fit that description in an expanded role next season.
4. Texas
Top-two-rounds prospects: 3B Adrian Rodriguez (2027), LHP Dylan Volantis (2027), RHP Jason Flores (2027), RF Max Belyeu, 2B Ethan Mendoza (2026)
Texas is stocked with underclassmen with early-round upside as Mendoza and Rodriguez will anchor the infield next season and I’d guess Volantis and Flores will both move into the rotation after strong relief performances as freshmen. LHP Jared Spencer would’ve easily qualified before his injury earlier this month.
5. Florida
Top-two-rounds prospects: RHP Liam Peterson (2026), RHP Aidan King (2027), SS Brendan Lawson (2027), RHP Luke McNeillie (2026)
The Gators are the first team with no 2025 draft-eligible players listed, though 2B Cade Kurland would probably qualify if he were healthy all season, and SS Colby Shelton would also likely sneak in if he were 21 years old rather than 22. Peterson is the top college arm for 2026 and King looks like one of many future 2027 first-rounders who popped as freshmen this season; most of them are listed here.
6. Florida State
Top-two-rounds prospects: LHP Jamie Arnold, LHP Wes Mendes (2026), SS Alex Lodise, 2B Drew Faurot
The Noles have solid high-end talent, with three possible first-round talents headlined by likely top-10 pick Arnold. The depth doesn’t stop there as OF Max Williams and RHP Cam Leiter (injured) might be third-rounders this year, and underclassmen C Hunter Carns and LF Myles Bailey are also showing flashes.
7. Wake Forest
Top-two-rounds prospects: RHP Chris Levonas (2027), SS Marek Houston, RF Ethan Conrad
Wake has graduated a number of standout players to pro ball in the past few years and has another solid crop coming this year, with Houston and Conrad both likely first-round picks. Levonas didn’t sign as a second-round pick out of high school last year, and early returns suggest he might be a high first-rounder in a few years.
8. Oregon State
Top-two-rounds prospects: SS Aiva Arquette, RHP Dax Whitney (2027)
The Beavers have only two players listed here, but both look like top-10 picks. There are also a number of interesting prospects in the third-to-fourth-round range for this year’s draft, including OF Gavin Turley, LHP Nelson Keljo and 3B Trent Caraway.
9. Oklahoma
Top-two-rounds prospects: RHP Kyson Witherspoon, SS Jaxon Willits (2026), C Easton Carmichael, RHP Malachi Witherspoon, LHP Cade Crossland
Oklahoma has five prospects listed here, though only Kyson Witherspoon is a clear top-50 pick; the other five are all later second-round or early third-round types of prospects. This rotation makes the Sooners dangerous in a postseason format.
10. TCU
Top-two-rounds prospects: RHP Tommy Lapour (2026), OF Sawyer Strosnider (2026), LHP Mason Brassfield (2027)
TCU’s crop of prospects who made the list (and OF Noah Franco, who was in contention) are all underclassmen, which bodes well for the future. Lapour has three above-average pitches and is the second-best college pitcher for next year’s draft.
11. Mississippi State
Top-two-rounds prospects: OF Nolan Stevens (2026), 3B Ace Reese (2026), RHP Ryan McPherson (2027)
Stevens and Reese both look like potential first-round picks for next year’s draft; Reese is an excellent hitter with medium power, while Stevens has some swing and miss to his game but easy plus raw power. McPherson is the best prospect among a number of interesting underclassman arms, though 22-year-old LHP Pico Kohn is the most impactful for this season.
12. Georgia Tech
Top-two-rounds prospects: OF Drew Burress (2026), C Vahn Lackey (2026), SS Kyle Lodise, 2B Alex Hernandez (2026)
Burress is in the running to go No. 1 in next year’s draft due to his standout power/speed combination. Lackey and Lodise look like solid second-rounders. Hernandez is a borderline second-rounder thanks to a strong freshman year.
The next half-dozen teams: Alabama, Auburn, Vanderbilt, Oregon, Ole Miss, North Carolina
HOUSTON — Soon after Lance McCullers Jr.’s family received online death threats following a tough start by the Astros pitcher, his 5-year-old daughter, Ava, overheard wife Kara talking on the phone about it.
What followed was a painful conversation between McCullers and his little girl.
“She asked me when I came home: ‘Daddy, like, what is threats? Who wants to hurt us? Who wants to hurt me?'” McCullers told The Associated Press on Wednesday. “So those conversations are tough to deal with.”
McCullers is one of two MLB pitchers whose families have received online death threats this month as internet abuse of players and their families is on the rise. Boston Red Sox reliever Liam Hendriks took to social media soon after the incident with McCullers to call out people who were threatening Hendriks’ wife’s life and directing “vile” comments at him.
The Astros contacted MLB security and the Houston Police Department following the threats to McCullers. A police spokesperson said Thursday that it remains an ongoing investigation.
McCullers, who has two young daughters, took immediate action after the threats and reached out to the team to inquire about what could be done to protect his family. Astros owner Jim Crane stepped in and hired 24-hour security for them.
It was a move McCullers felt was necessary after what happened.
“You have to at that point,” he said.
Players around the league agree that online abuse has gotten progressively worse in recent years. Milwaukee‘s Christian Yelich, a 13-year veteran and the 2018 National League MVP, said receiving online abuse is “a nightly thing” for most players.
“I think over the last few years it’s definitely increased,” he said. “It’s increased to the point that you’re just: ‘All right, here we go.’ It doesn’t even really register on your radar anymore. I don’t know if that’s a good or a bad thing. You’re just so used to that on a day-to-day, night-to-night basis. It’s not just me. It’s everybody in here, based on performance.”
And many players believe it’s directly linked to the rise in legalized sports betting.
“You get a lot of DMs or stuff like that about you ruining someone’s bet or something ridiculous like that,” veteran Red Sox reliever Justin Wilson said. “I guess they should make better bets.”
Hendriks, a 36-year-old reliever who previously underwent treatment for non-Hodgkin lymphoma, said on Instagram that he and his wife received death threats after a loss to the New York Mets. He added that people left comments saying that they wished he would have died from cancer, among other abusive comments.
“Enough is enough,” he said. “Like at some point, everyone just like sucking up and dealing with it isn’t accomplishing anything. And we pass along to security. We pass along to whoever we need to, but nothing ends up happening. And it happens again the next night.
“And so, at some point, someone has to make a stand. And it’s one of those things where, the more eyes we get on it, the more voices we get talking about it, hopefully it can push it in the right direction.”
Both the Astros and the Red Sox are working with MLB security to take action against social media users who direct threats toward players and their families. Red Sox spokesperson Abby Murphy said they have taken steps in recent years to make sure players’ families are safe during games. That includes security staff and Boston police stationed in the family section at home and dedicated security in the traveling party to monitor the family section on the road.
“I think over the last few years it’s definitely increased. It’s increased to the point that you’re just: ‘All right, here we go.’ It doesn’t even really register on your radar anymore. I don’t know if that’s a good or a bad thing. You’re just so used to that on a day-to-day, night-to-night basis. It’s not just me. It’s everybody in here, based on performance.”
Christian Yelich, on players receiving threatening messages
Murphy said identifying those who make anonymous threats online is difficult, but “both the Red Sox and MLB have cyber programs and analysts dedicated to identifying and removing these accounts.”
The Astros have uniformed police officers stationed in the family section, a practice that was implemented well before the threats to McCullers and his family.
For some players, online abuse has gotten so bad that they have abandoned social media. Detroit Tigers All-Star outfielder Riley Greene said he got off social media because he received so many messages from people blaming him for failed bets.
“I deleted it,” he said of Instagram. “I’m off it. It sucks, but it’s the world we live in, and we can’t do anything about it. People would DM me and say nasty things, tell me how bad of a player I am and say nasty stuff that we don’t want to hear.”
The 31-year-old McCullers, who returned this year after missing two full seasons with injuries, said dealing with this has been the worst thing that has happened in his career. He understands the passion of fans and knows that being criticized for a poor performance is part of the game. But he believes there’s a “moral line” that fans shouldn’t cross.
“People should want us to succeed,” he said. “We want to succeed, but it shouldn’t come at a cost to our families, the kids in our life, having to feel like they’re not safe where they live or where they sit at games.”
Astros manager Joe Espada was livid when he learned about the threats to McCullers and his family and was visibly upset when he addressed what happened with reporters.
Espada said the team has mental health professionals available to the players to talk about the toll such abuse takes on them and any other issues they may be dealing with.
“We are aware that when we step on the field, fans expect and we expect the best out of ourselves,” Espada said this week. “But when we are trying to do our best and things don’t go our way while we’re trying to give you everything we got and now you’re threatening our families and kids — now I do have a big issue with that, right? I just did not like it.”
Kansas City‘s Salvador Perez, a 14-year MLB veteran, hasn’t experienced online abuse but was appalled by what happened to McCullers. If something like that happened to him, he said, it would change the way he interacts with fans.
“Now some fans, real fans, they’re going to pay for that too,” he said. “Because if I was him, I wouldn’t take a picture or sign anything for nobody because of that one day.”
McCullers wouldn’t go that far but admitted it has changed his mindset.
“It does make you kind of shell up a little bit,” he said. “It does make you kind of not want to go places. I guess that’s just probably the human reaction to it.”
While most players have dealt with some level of online abuse in their careers, no one has a good idea of how to stop it.
“I’m thankful I’m not in a position where I have to find a solution to this,” Tigers pitcher Tyler Holton said. “But as a person who is involved in this, I wish this wasn’t a topic of conversation.”
Chicago White Sox outfielder Mike Tauchman is disheartened at how bad player abuse has gotten. While it’s mostly online, he said he has had teammates that have had racist and homophobic things yelled at them during games.
“Outside of just simply not having social media, I really don’t see that getting better before it just continues to get worse,” he said. “I mean, I think it’s kind of the way things are now. Like, people just feel like they have the right to say whatever they want to whoever they want and it’s behind a keyboard and there’s really no repercussions, right?”
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