CFP Anger Index: What’s the committee’s issue with the ACC?
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David Hale, ESPN Staff Writer
The committee will meet just twice more this year. So far, the job has been pretty easy: Copy, paste. Indeed, there has been so much chalk at the top of the rankings this year, it’s hardly worth the price of the flights for the committee to meet about it.
But even if the upsets haven’t sent the rankings into chaos just yet, it’s worth reconsidering some of the underlying assumptions we’ve used to inform the standings. Because 12 weeks into the 2023 season, there has not been much to be surprised about, but there’s always plenty to be angry about.
Losses by teams ranked in the AP top 8 at this point in…
2014 – 20
2015 – 17
2016 – 19
2017 – 17
2018 – 16
2019 – 12
2021 – 15
2022 – 15
2023 – 6**all were vs teams ranked 13 or better at the time.
— 💫🅰️♈️🆔 (@ADavidHaleJoint) November 19, 2023
This is the part where we’re supposed to lament the Seminoles’ precipitous tumble from No. 4 to No. 5 after Jordan Travis was injured in a win over North Alabama.
Well, we’re not going to do that. Washington, as we noted each of the past two weeks, had as good a claim as any to the top four, and after its win against Oregon State in Week 12, it has vaulted into the No. 1 spot in ESPN’s strength of record. No one should be angry the Huskies are at No. 4. If anything, the Huskies should be upset they’re not higher.
The problem for Florida State is that’s where the conversation seems to end. But it shouldn’t.
Ohio State and Michigan each have résumés underpinned almost entirely by beating Penn State. Michigan’s next-best win is Maryland. Heck, eight of Michigan’s 11 wins have come against teams ranked 60th or worse in the Football Power Index (FPI). That’s a higher share of wins against bottom-half teams than Tulane. Ohio State’s second-best win is a last-second score against Notre Dame (when the Irish used only 10 defenders), a team Louisville — FSU’s ACC title game opponent — beat by 13. And how do we know Penn State is good? The Nittany Lions’ lone relevant win is over Iowa. Iowa, people! The Hawkeyes treat the forward pass like the Amish treat electric cars.
The season for both Michigan and Ohio State essentially comes down to which one beats the other, a borderline one-game season, yet there’s no question whatsoever that the winner will be in the playoff.
FSU, though? Even if the Seminoles finish 13-0, there will be a chorus of folks who think they don’t belong because they play in the ACC or because they’ve played too many close games or, most significantly now, because they don’t have their starting QB.
Of course, it’s also worth noting that Stetson Bennett wasn’t Georgia‘s top quarterback option in 2021. Nor was Jake Fromm when the Bulldogs made it to the national title game in 2017. That 2017 game was won by a QB coming off the bench (Tua Tagovailoa). Trevor Lawrence wasn’t Clemson‘s starter for the first four weeks of 2018 when the Tigers won it all. Max Duggan lost the starting QB job for TCU coming out of fall camp last year, but he still led the Horned Frogs to the title game. And, of course, there’s Cardale Jones, who came to Ohio State’s rescue in 2014 and won the Buckeyes a national title.
Now, no one is confusing Tate Rodemaker with Tagovailoa or Lawrence, but is there any proof he can’t play at least as well as Jones, Bennett or Duggan? And the point here isn’t that anything is guaranteed for FSU post-Travis, but the history of No. 2 (or No. 3) QBs in September making noise in January is actually a lot more extensive than most folks remember.
So yes, Washington is deserving. So, too, is Florida State — with or without Travis. And if the Noles win the next two against Florida and Louisville, there shouldn’t be a second’s worth of debate. They’re in.
A few quick “did you knows” on the Cardinals:
Did you know Louisville has six wins against bowl-eligible Power 5 opponents? That’s more than any other team in the country.
Did you know Louisville has a road win over a ranked opponent, something Oregon, Alabama and Missouri are all missing from their résumés?
Did you know Louisville’s strength of record is better than Missouri’s?
And yes, Louisville lost to Pitt in a game in which its best offensive player had two touches and, in the rain and bad weather, the Cardinals turned the ball over three times.
The Pitt loss is an anchor dragging Louisville for understandable reasons, but it certainly seems as if a dominant win over Notre Dame or a road win against 8-3 NC State should count for something. And while this was largely semantics before Travis’ injury at Florida State, there’s a very real scenario now where Louisville runs the table the rest of the way and earns an ACC championship with a 12-1 record.
And if that happens, the committee has made it clear the Cards will still be at the back of the line when it comes to playoff positioning.
Let’s do a little blind résumé evaluation here:
Team A: 9-2, No. 17 in SP+ and No. 11 in strength of record; best win vs. SP+ No. 14, losses by a combined 19 points to teams ranked in the FPI top 40, one loss at home, one on the road
Team B: 9-2, No. 16 in SP+ and No. 8 strength of record; best win vs. SP+ No. 11, losses by a combined 49 points to teams ranked in the FPI top 40, both losses on the road
Team C: 9-2, No. 15 in SP+ and No. 13 strength of record; best win vs. SP+ No. 8, losses by a combined eight points to teams ranked in the FPI top 40, both losses on the road
Best win goes to Team C, closest losses go to Team C, and the best SP+ ranking goes to Team C. There’s more to the story, of course, but that’s a good starting point to say Team C is the best of the bunch, right?
Well, Team C is the Sooners. Team B is Ole Miss, ranked one spot higher, and Team A is Missouri, ranked four spots higher. Even Penn State comes in ahead of Oklahoma.
Oklahoma is being judged by its losses, and comparatively the close L’s to Kansas and Oklahoma State might seem a bit worse than blowout defeats at the hands of Georgia or LSU. But Oklahoma was probably the better team in both losses, but a bit of bad timing and bad luck (and a few bad plays) made the difference. Kansas is a solid team and was healthier when it beat Oklahoma. Oklahoma State wavers between a house cat and a lion, and the Sooners happened to catch the Pokes on a lion day. But they also beat Texas, a team that has legitimate national title aspirations, and that shows where Oklahoma’s ceiling is.
Where is Missouri’s or Penn State’s or Ole Miss’ ceiling? Not nearly so high.
4. Utah Utes (7-4, unranked)
We’ve reached the point in the season where four-loss teams are in the top 25, yet Utah isn’t one of them. Is that fair?
Well, the Utes are likely damaged by their current trend line — losses in three of four, two of which were by 28 or more. But it’s worth remembering all four losses were to teams currently in the committee’s top 16, while the Utes also have solid wins over Florida, UCLA and USC. Compare that to Tennessee, the highest ranked of the four-loss teams, and it’s a no-brainer. Utah has the better strength of record, a head-to-head win over a team that beat Tennessee and a higher-ranked best win (UCLA, No. 25 in SP+ for Utah; No. 33 Kentucky for Tennessee). And even if we’re taking a “What have you done for me lately?” approach, the Vols, too, are coming off back-to-back blowout losses.
Could this all be a conspiracy by the committee to prop up the SEC and hurt the eventual Pac-12 champion? You didn’t hear that from us.
To its credit, the committee has routinely overlooked the bottom-line win-loss record in favor of considering the context of those wins and losses. This is critical at the top of the rankings, but the same level of nuance isn’t always afforded to the bottom of the rankings. To which we give you the second-highest-ranked Group of 5 team: Liberty at No. 25.
The Flames are 11-0, which is laudable. But their best win came against New Mexico State in Week 2, a time before the Aggies had learned how to play football. Their second-best win came against Jacksonville State, a program in its first year of FBS play. All 11 of Liberty’s wins have come against teams ranked 80th or worse in the current FPI. Compare that to, say, Toledo (10-1 with a win over Miami-Ohio) or UNLV (9-2 with wins over San José State, Air Force and Vanderbilt) and it starts to seem as if Liberty benefits strictly from the zero in the loss column. But would you take Liberty over Illinois? That’s where Toledo’s loss came from. Or how about Michigan? Because half of UNLV’s losses came at the Big House.
The race for the Group of 5’s New Year’s Six bid is being led (rightfully) by Tulane, but if the Green Wave slip up in the final two weeks (vs. red-hot UTSA and SMU in the AAC championship), the bid shouldn’t belong to Liberty just because it had the easiest path to an undefeated season.
The Miami Marlins have designated two-time All-Star shortstop Tim Anderson for assignment, the Miami Herald reported Tuesday.
Anderson, 31, signed a one-year, $5 million deal with Miami in February, hoping for a bounce-back season that did not materialize.
Through 65 games, Anderson is batting .214 with no homers and 9 RBIs. He has struck out 68 times and drawn only 7 walks.
Anderson won the American League batting title with a .335 average for the Chicago White Sox in 2019 and made the AL All-Star teams in 2021 and 2022.
He batted .282 with 98 homers, 338 RBIs and 117 stolen bases in 895 games over eight seasons with the White Sox from 2016 to 2023.
The 2024 NHL offseason is off to a wild start. Just four days after the Florida Panthers won the Stanley Cup, an epic 2024 NHL draft took place at Sphere in Las Vegas, including several big trades along with 225 prospects finding new homes.
Now it’s time for the league’s 32 front offices to add to their rosters via free agency.
Here is our continuously updated tracker, featuring a list of every player signed, along with analysis of the biggest deals and buzz on what could happen next.
Note that the newest deals are on top, denoted by date.
More: Grades
Player rankings
Team guides
Draft recap: Team grades
Winners, losers
July 2
The Sabres have added to their goaltending depth, signing veteran James Reimer to a one-year, $1 million contract.
July 1
The goalie carousel continues to spin in Vegas. After trading Logan Thompson to the Caps and adding Akira Schmid in a deal with the Devils, they are adding Ilya Samsonov via a one-year, $1.8 million contract.
After finishing out the 2023-24 season with the Maple Leafs, 34-year-old defenseman T.J. Brodie joined the parade of veterans signing with the Blackhawks, via a two-year, $7.5 million deal.
The Oilers added a proven scorer by inking Jeff Skinner to a one-year, $3 million deal following his buyout by the Sabres. They also re-signed playoff hero Mattias Janmark to a three-year, $4.35 million deal, and trade deadline acquisition Adam Henrique to a two-year, $6 million contract.
Lots of turnover in the Carolina back end this offseason, but it added a good one in 29-year-old Sean Walker, agreeing to a five-year, $18 million deal.
The Sharks continue to make wise veteran additions to their young roster, inking a two-year, $10 million deal with center Alex Wennberg.
Dallas continues its spending spree on veteran defenseman, re-signing Nils Lundkvist for one year, $1.25 million.
The NHL playing career will continue for Corey Perry, as the veteran is re-signing with the Oilers for one year, $1.4 million.
The Kings have added some size and snarl to their defense corps, inking veteran Joel Edmundson to a four-year, $15.4 million deal.
The Avalanche add to their depth on the blue line, agreeing to terms with veteran defenseman Calvin de Haan on a one-year, $800,000 deal.
Forward Anthony Beauvillier has been well-traveled the past few seasons, and he’s off to a new team again for 2024-25, inking a one-year, $1.25 million deal with the Penguins.
Goaltender Jack Campbell‘s massive deal with the Oilers didn’t work out so well, and he has moved on to the Red Wings, agreeing to terms on a one-year, $775,000 contract.
The Capitals continue adding to their roster, agreeing to terms on a one-year, $1 million deal with forward Taylor Raddysh.
Another veteran defenseman has landed in Dallas: Ilya Lyubushkin is signing a two-year, $6.5 million contract with the Stars.
The Islanders have finally entered the chat! Defenseman Mike Reilly is coming back on a one-year contract, while forward Anthony Duclair is heading back to the Metropolitan Division by way of a four-year, $14 million deal.
The Red Wings add to their blue-line group with former Rangers defenseman Erik Gustafsson, agreeing to a two-year, $4 million deal.
After finishing the 2023-24 season with the Lightning, veteran defenseman Matt Dumba is headed to the Stars by way of a two-year, $7.5 million deal. And after skating for the Devils this past season, fellow blueliner Brendan Smith is also headed to Dallas, by way of a one-year, $1 million deal.
Sam Steel is returning to the Stars, agreeing to terms on a one-year, $1.2 million contract with Dallas.
Veteran agitator Garnet Hathaway will stick with the Flyers by way of a two-year, $4.8 million extension.
Another Stanley Cup champ is leaving the Panthers, as Ryan Lomberg is signing a two-year, $4 million deal with the Flames.
Former Golden Knight forward Chandler Stephenson is heading up to Seattle, inking a seven-year, $43.75 million contract with the Kraken.
It’s a move that won’t get as much attention as signing Stamkos, Marchessault and Skjei, but the Predators made an addition to their goaltending group, signing Scott Wedgewood to a two-year, $3 million deal.
The Stars have found their backup for Jake Oettinger, agreeing to terms with Casey DeSmith on a one-year, $3 million contract.
After a run to the Stanley Cup Final with the Oilers, forward Warren Foegele is heading to L.A., inking a three-year, $10.5 million deal with the Kings.
Veteran defenseman Matt Grzelcyk will not be patrolling the blue line for the Bruins; instead, he’s signing a one-year, $2.75 million deal with the Penguins.
After plying his trade for the Hurricanes in recent seasons, Stefan Noesen is headed back to the Devils, agreeing to a three-year, $8.25 million deal.
The Stars are staying in the Matt Duchene business, inking a one-year, $3 million extension with the veteran forward.
A key depth forward for the Golden Knights the past two seasons, Michael Amadio is joining the Senators by way of a three-year, $7.8 million contract.
Jonathan Drouin experienced a renaissance with the Avalanche in 2023-24, and he’ll keep it going for at least one more season, inking a one-year, $2.5 million deal.
Yet another former Bruin heading to Vancouver, as Danton Heinen is joining the Canucks via a two-year, $4.5 million contract.
Veteran goaltender Matt Murray will be back with the Maple Leafs for 2024-25, agreeing to terms on a one-year, $875,000 pact.
It was a tale of two seasons for Cam Talbot in 2023-24, as a great start gave way to a rough finish. He’ll hope for a consistently strong campaign with the Red Wings, after agreeing to a two-year, $5 million deal.
Former Bruin Jake DeBrusk has landed in Vancouver, inking a seven-year, $38.5 million deal with the Canucks.
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In need of some veteran help down the middle, the Blue Jackets are signing Sean Monahan to a five-year, $27.5 million deal.
The Capitals continue to build around the edges, inking Brandon Duhaime to a two-year, $3.7 million contract.
After winning the Stanley Cup with the Panthers, forward Kevin Stenlund is headed to the Hockey Club via a two-year, $4 million deal.
Defenseman William Carrier is signing with the Hurricanes, agreeing to terms on a six-year, $12 million contract.
Veteran forward Kiefer Sherwood is headed to Vancouver, coming to terms on a two-year, $3 million deal with the Canucks.
The Hurricanes lost some defensemen in free agency, but they’re keeping a pretty important one for the foreseeable future, agreeing to an eight-year, $51.69 million extension for Jaccob Slavin.
After re-signing Joseph Woll this offseason, the Maple Leafs added a veteran option in Anthony Stolarz via a two-year, $5 million pact.
The Minnesota Wild are on the board, inking forward Yakov Trenin to a four-year, $14 million contract.
Veteran defenseman Nikita Zadorov has landed in Boston by way of a six-year, $30 million contract with the Bruins.
The Oilers have boosted their forward depth for the next two seasons, inking Viktor Arvidsson to a two-year, $8 million deal.
The Sabres add a veteran scoring winger in Jason Zucker, agreeing to a one-year, $5 million pact.
Another veteran defenseman is joining the Devils, as Brenden Dillon has agreed to a three-year, $12 million contract with New Jersey.
The Flames have brought back one of their own — Yegor Sharangovich for five years, $28.75 million — and an external free agent as well, in Anthony Mantha (one year, $3.5 million).
Former Stanley Cup champion David Perron will continue his NHL career with the Senators, agreeing to a two-year, $4 million contract.
Yet another veteran defenseman is headed to Utah, as Ian Cole is signing a one-year, $3.1 million deal with the Hockey Club.
The Bruins added a major boost to the center position, inking Elias Lindholm to a seven-year, $54.25 million contract.
The Predators have entered the chat, inking deals with three of the top free agents on the market:
Veteran scoring winger Tyler Toffoli is headed back to California, signing a four-year, $24 million deal with the Sharks.
Fresh off winning the Stanley Cup, defenseman Oliver Ekman-Larsson has signed a four-year, $14 million contract with the Maple Leafs.
Veteran netminder Eric Comrie is back with the Jets, agreeing to terms on a one-year, $825,000 contract.
The Blackhawks are focused on surrounding Connor Bedard with some veteran help, adding Tyler Bertuzzi (four years, $22 million), Teuvo Teravainen (three-years, $16.2 million), Pat Maroon (one-year, $1.3 million), Alec Martinez (one year, $4 million) and Craig Smith (one-year, $1 million).
After trading for Jakob Chychrun, the Capitals continued adding to their blue line, signing Matt Roy to a seven-year, $38.5 million contract.
The Kraken have landed one of the top free agents on the market, inking a seven-year, $50 million deal with defenseman Brandon Montour.
Forward Sam Lafferty, 29, is headed to Buffalo, inking a two-year, $4 million contract with the Sabres.
Rugged forward Jordan Martinook will not be leaving Carolina, signing a three-year, $9.15 million deal with the Hurricanes.
The Devils have added a critical player to their blue-line group, signing former Hurricanes blueliner Brett Pesce to a six-year, $33 million contract.
Veteran forward Kasperi Kapanen is re-signing with the Blues, inking a one-year, $1 million deal to stay in St. Louis.
Restricted free agent forward Connor McMichael has extended his business relationship with the Capitals, inking a two-year, $4.20 million pact.
Erik Johnson played 67 games for the Flyers in 2023-24, and he’ll play some more in 2024-25, given his new one-year, $1 million deal with the club.
The Maple Leafs traded for an exclusive negotiating window with veteran defenseman Chris Tanev, and consummated that relationship on Monday via a six-year, $27 million contract. The team also finally confirmed the new deal for RFA netminder Joseph Woll (three years, $10.98 million).
The Panthers agreed to terms on an eight-year, $69 million deal with forward Sam Reinhart.
After trading a 2025 third-round draft pick for Jake Guentzel‘s negotiating rights, the Lightning have sealed the deal with the forward on a seven-year, $63 million contract.
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June 30
Veteran forward Patrick Kane is back with the Red Wings, inking a one-year, $4 million contract.
Restricted free agent center Isac Lundestrom has re-signed with the Ducks, inking a one-year, $1.5 million deal.
The Utah Hockey Club continues to work on its blue line, re-signing RFA Sean Durzi to a four-year, $24 million contract.
In need of a boost on the blue line this summer, the Maple Leafs will start with one of their own, re-signing RFA Timothy Liljegren to a two-year, $6 million contract.
Veteran forward Max Domi will not be exploring the market, as he returns to the Maple Leafs via a four-year, $15 million deal.
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