The committee will meet just twice more this year. So far, the job has been pretty easy: Copy, paste. Indeed, there has been so much chalk at the top of the rankings this year, it’s hardly worth the price of the flights for the committee to meet about it.
But even if the upsets haven’t sent the rankings into chaos just yet, it’s worth reconsidering some of the underlying assumptions we’ve used to inform the standings. Because 12 weeks into the 2023 season, there has not been much to be surprised about, but there’s always plenty to be angry about.
Losses by teams ranked in the AP top 8 at this point in… 2014 – 20 2015 – 17 2016 – 19 2017 – 17 2018 – 16 2019 – 12 2021 – 15 2022 – 15 2023 – 6*
*all were vs teams ranked 13 or better at the time.
This is the part where we’re supposed to lament the Seminoles’ precipitous tumble from No. 4 to No. 5 after Jordan Travis was injured in a win over North Alabama.
Well, we’re not going to do that. Washington, as we noted each of the past two weeks, had as good a claim as any to the top four, and after its win against Oregon State in Week 12, it has vaulted into the No. 1 spot in ESPN’s strength of record. No one should be angry the Huskies are at No. 4. If anything, the Huskies should be upset they’re not higher.
The problem for Florida State is that’s where the conversation seems to end. But it shouldn’t.
Ohio State and Michigan each have résumés underpinned almost entirely by beating Penn State. Michigan’s next-best win is Maryland. Heck, eight of Michigan’s 11 wins have come against teams ranked 60th or worse in the Football Power Index (FPI). That’s a higher share of wins against bottom-half teams than Tulane. Ohio State’s second-best win is a last-second score against Notre Dame (when the Irish used only 10 defenders), a team Louisville — FSU’s ACC title game opponent — beat by 13. And how do we know Penn State is good? The Nittany Lions’ lone relevant win is over Iowa. Iowa, people! The Hawkeyes treat the forward pass like the Amish treat electric cars.
The season for both Michigan and Ohio State essentially comes down to which one beats the other, a borderline one-game season, yet there’s no question whatsoever that the winner will be in the playoff.
FSU, though? Even if the Seminoles finish 13-0, there will be a chorus of folks who think they don’t belong because they play in the ACC or because they’ve played too many close games or, most significantly now, because they don’t have their starting QB.
Of course, it’s also worth noting that Stetson Bennett wasn’t Georgia‘s top quarterback option in 2021. Nor was Jake Fromm when the Bulldogs made it to the national title game in 2017. That 2017 game was won by a QB coming off the bench (Tua Tagovailoa). Trevor Lawrence wasn’t Clemson‘s starter for the first four weeks of 2018 when the Tigers won it all. Max Duggan lost the starting QB job for TCU coming out of fall camp last year, but he still led the Horned Frogs to the title game. And, of course, there’s Cardale Jones, who came to Ohio State’s rescue in 2014 and won the Buckeyes a national title.
Now, no one is confusing Tate Rodemaker with Tagovailoa or Lawrence, but is there any proof he can’t play at least as well as Jones, Bennett or Duggan? And the point here isn’t that anything is guaranteed for FSU post-Travis, but the history of No. 2 (or No. 3) QBs in September making noise in January is actually a lot more extensive than most folks remember.
So yes, Washington is deserving. So, too, is Florida State — with or without Travis. And if the Noles win the next two against Florida and Louisville, there shouldn’t be a second’s worth of debate. They’re in.
A few quick “did you knows” on the Cardinals:
Did you know Louisville has six wins against bowl-eligible Power 5 opponents? That’s more than any other team in the country.
Did you know Louisville has a road win over a ranked opponent, something Oregon, Alabama and Missouri are all missing from their résumés?
Did you know Louisville’s strength of record is better than Missouri’s?
And yes, Louisville lost to Pitt in a game in which its best offensive player had two touches and, in the rain and bad weather, the Cardinals turned the ball over three times.
The Pitt loss is an anchor dragging Louisville for understandable reasons, but it certainly seems as if a dominant win over Notre Dame or a road win against 8-3 NC State should count for something. And while this was largely semantics before Travis’ injury at Florida State, there’s a very real scenario now where Louisville runs the table the rest of the way and earns an ACC championship with a 12-1 record.
And if that happens, the committee has made it clear the Cards will still be at the back of the line when it comes to playoff positioning.
Let’s do a little blind résumé evaluation here:
Team A: 9-2, No. 17 in SP+ and No. 11 in strength of record; best win vs. SP+ No. 14, losses by a combined 19 points to teams ranked in the FPI top 40, one loss at home, one on the road
Team B: 9-2, No. 16 in SP+ and No. 8 strength of record; best win vs. SP+ No. 11, losses by a combined 49 points to teams ranked in the FPI top 40, both losses on the road
Team C: 9-2, No. 15 in SP+ and No. 13 strength of record; best win vs. SP+ No. 8, losses by a combined eight points to teams ranked in the FPI top 40, both losses on the road
Best win goes to Team C, closest losses go to Team C, and the best SP+ ranking goes to Team C. There’s more to the story, of course, but that’s a good starting point to say Team C is the best of the bunch, right?
Well, Team C is the Sooners. Team B is Ole Miss, ranked one spot higher, and Team A is Missouri, ranked four spots higher. Even Penn State comes in ahead of Oklahoma.
Oklahoma is being judged by its losses, and comparatively the close L’s to Kansas and Oklahoma State might seem a bit worse than blowout defeats at the hands of Georgia or LSU. But Oklahoma was probably the better team in both losses, but a bit of bad timing and bad luck (and a few bad plays) made the difference. Kansas is a solid team and was healthier when it beat Oklahoma. Oklahoma State wavers between a house cat and a lion, and the Sooners happened to catch the Pokes on a lion day. But they also beat Texas, a team that has legitimate national title aspirations, and that shows where Oklahoma’s ceiling is.
Where is Missouri’s or Penn State’s or Ole Miss’ ceiling? Not nearly so high.
We’ve reached the point in the season where four-loss teams are in the top 25, yet Utah isn’t one of them. Is that fair?
Well, the Utes are likely damaged by their current trend line — losses in three of four, two of which were by 28 or more. But it’s worth remembering all four losses were to teams currently in the committee’s top 16, while the Utes also have solid wins over Florida, UCLA and USC. Compare that to Tennessee, the highest ranked of the four-loss teams, and it’s a no-brainer. Utah has the better strength of record, a head-to-head win over a team that beat Tennessee and a higher-ranked best win (UCLA, No. 25 in SP+ for Utah; No. 33 Kentucky for Tennessee). And even if we’re taking a “What have you done for me lately?” approach, the Vols, too, are coming off back-to-back blowout losses.
Could this all be a conspiracy by the committee to prop up the SEC and hurt the eventual Pac-12 champion? You didn’t hear that from us.
To its credit, the committee has routinely overlooked the bottom-line win-loss record in favor of considering the context of those wins and losses. This is critical at the top of the rankings, but the same level of nuance isn’t always afforded to the bottom of the rankings. To which we give you the second-highest-ranked Group of 5 team: Liberty at No. 25.
The Flames are 11-0, which is laudable. But their best win came against New Mexico State in Week 2, a time before the Aggies had learned how to play football. Their second-best win came against Jacksonville State, a program in its first year of FBS play. All 11 of Liberty’s wins have come against teams ranked 80th or worse in the current FPI. Compare that to, say, Toledo (10-1 with a win over Miami-Ohio) or UNLV (9-2 with wins over San José State, Air Force and Vanderbilt) and it starts to seem as if Liberty benefits strictly from the zero in the loss column. But would you take Liberty over Illinois? That’s where Toledo’s loss came from. Or how about Michigan? Because half of UNLV’s losses came at the Big House.
The race for the Group of 5’s New Year’s Six bid is being led (rightfully) by Tulane, but if the Green Wave slip up in the final two weeks (vs. red-hot UTSA and SMU in the AAC championship), the bid shouldn’t belong to Liberty just because it had the easiest path to an undefeated season.
BOSTON — Boston Red Sox first baseman Triston Casas suffered a ruptured tendon in his left knee and is out for the remainder of the season, the team said.
The 25-year-old Casas ruptured his patellar tendon running to first on a slow roller up the line and fell awkwardly in Boston’s victory over the Minnesota Twins on Friday night. After laying on his back in pain — not moving the knee — he was carted off on a stretcher before being taken to a Boston hospital.
The team announced Sunday that he had surgery for a left patellar tendon repair at Massachusetts General Hospital. The surgery was performed by Dr. Eric Berkson.
“I talked to him last night,” chief baseball officer Craig Breslow said in a news conference on Saturday discussing the injury outside Boston’s clubhouse. “We exchanged text messages [Saturday]. We all care deeply about just his overall wellbeing.”
Manager Alex Cora said Casas worked hard during the offseason to play every day after missing a large amount of last year with torn cartilage in his rib cage.
“He did an outstanding job in the offseason to put himself in that situation. It didn’t start the way he wanted it to,” Cora said of Casas’ struggles. “He was going to play and play a lot. Now we’ve got to focus on the rehab after the surgery and hopefully get him back stronger than ever and ready to go next year.”
Casas batted just .182 with three homers and 11 RBIs, but Breslow said his loss will be felt, especially with the team’s lack of depth at the position.
“He certainly struggled through the first month of the season but that didn’t change what we believe his production was capable of being,” Breslow said. “It’s a big loss. In addition to what we think we were going to get on the offensive side, he was kind of like a stabilizing presence on the defensive side of the field — also a big personality and a big part of the clubhouse.”
During spring training, Casas talked about how his focus at the plate this season was being more relaxed.
“You really want it until you don’t,” he said, explaining his thoughts while standing at his locker. “Then you can’t want it that much.”
Now, he’ll have to focus on his recovery plan for next season.
Casas, a left-handed batter, was placed on the 10-day injured list Saturday with infielder/outfielder Abraham Toro selected from Triple-A Worcester.
Cora said Toro — a switch-hitter — will split time at first along with Romy Gonzalez. who bats right-handed.
Breslow said the team might be exploring a long-term replacement.
“This is unfortunately an opportunity to explore what’s available,” he said. “We’ll look both internally and outside as well.”
Cora said there are no plans to move Rafael Devers, who was replaced at third by offseason free-agent acquisition Alex Bregman and moved to DH.
“We asked him to do something in spring training that in the beginning he didn’t agree with it and now he’s very comfortable doing what he’s doing,” Cora said. “Like I told you guys in spring training, he’s my DH.”
TORONTO — Cleveland Guardians star Jose Ramirez was back in the lineup for Sunday’s game against the Toronto Blue Jays, two days after the third baseman left in the third inning because of a mild right ankle sprain.
The six-time All-Star was injured when he stumbled and fell while crossing first base on an infield single. Ramirez went down after being struck in the back by a throw from Blue Jays right-hander Chris Bassitt.
Ramirez was batting third Sunday against right-hander Bowden Francis.
Ramírez sat out Saturday when Cleveland beat Toronto 5-3. He went 2 for 2 before departing Friday, boosting his average to .274. He has five home runs and 15 RBIs in 31 games.
In last Thursday’s 4-3 victory over Minnesota, Ramirez became the first primary third baseman to reach 250 homers and 250 stolen bases.
NEW YORK — Shortstop Anthony Volpe was not in the New York Yankees‘ starting lineup Sunday against the Tampa Bay Rays, a day after he injured his left shoulder on a dive while trying to get to a grounder.
“X-rays, MRI — good news,” Yankees manager Aaron Boone said. “He’s sore today, but I feel like we’re probably in a good spot. We’ll see. Kind of day to day right now.”
Volpe remained in the game after his unsuccessful attempt for a backhand stab on Christopher Morel‘s eighth-inning single, which sparked a two-run rally in Tampa Bay’s 3-2 win Saturday.
Volpe said after the game he heard a pop in the shoulder.
“It’s a little unclear in there. He’s got some stuff that they feel like is older stuff, so hard to know exactly,” Boone said. “He’s definitely a little cranky in the shoulder today.”
Volpe, 24, is hitting .233 with five homers, 19 RBIs and four stolen bases in his third season with the Yankees.
Oswald Peraza was listed to start at shortstop, batting ninth.
New York already is missing second baseman Jazz Chisholm Jr. (strained right oblique), third baseman DJ LeMahieu (strained left calf), ace Gerrit Cole (Tommy John surgery) and right-hander Luis Gil (right lat strain), the reigning AL Rookie of the Year.