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The college football season end is near, but before the postseason commences, it’s time to figure out where and when teams will be playing.

Bring on Championship Week, the week that is sure to clear up the College Football Playoff picture … or give the selection committee a lot to weigh should certain scenarios play out in this weekend’s conference championship games.

It seems simple for the undefeated teams — Washington in the Pac-12, Georgia in the SEC, Michigan in the Big Ten and Florida State in the ACC — win and you’re in. But a loss by any of those teams could mean a difficult decision for the committee.

Our writers break down what’s at stake in the Pac-12, Big 12, SEC, Big Ten and ACC championship games, and matchups to watch in those games plus notable quotes from the week.

Champ Week: What’s at stake

Pac-12

No. 5 Oregon (11-1) vs. No. 3 Washington (12-0)

Friday, 8 p.m. ET, ABC
Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas

What’s at stake: This is the most high-stakes Pac-12 championship game of all time considering both teams will have the reasonable expectation to go to the College Football Playoff with a win. For Washington, that’s definitely the case. There is no scenario that exists that would see the Huskies get left out with a win. For Oregon, though, there’s one nightmare scenario that could see them get left out even with a win Friday. If Alabama, Texas, Michigan and Florida State all win, the committee would then have three teams for two spots: Alabama (12-1, SEC champ); Texas (12-1, Big 12 champ); Oregon (12-1, Pac-12 champ). Texas beat Alabama on the road, so there is certainly plain logic to go with Texas over Alabama. If that’s the determination, then you have Alabama vs. Oregon for the last spot and all bets are off.

Oregon wins if: The Ducks can maintain their level of play from the second half of the season. Since losing to Washington at Husky Stadium, Oregon has looked the better team. Bo Nix has played himself into a worthy Heisman recipient and has been surrounded by a team humming in all phases of the game. If the Ducks can get pressure on UW quarterback Michael Penix Jr. and get him off schedule in Las Vegas, it would bode well for them.

Washington wins if: It keeps riding the wave. It’s easy to find justification for how Washington wins because it has won 19 straight. Even if some of the Huskies’ recent victories haven’t had the style points like those earlier in the year, this is just a team that makes plays — on both sides — when they matter. That matters. It also helps that receiver Rome Odunze has turned into one of the most clutch players in college football. Whenever the Huskies need a big play, he’s the one they go to, and he has yet to let the team down.

X factor: UW running back Dillon Johnson. For all that has been made of Washington’s passing attack, the value of Johnson has really been understated. Penix could get into trouble if UW is one-dimensional, which makes Johnson’s role massive against the Ducks. — Kyle Bonagura


Big 12

No. 18 Oklahoma State (9-3) vs. No. 7 Texas (11-1)

Saturday, noon ET, ABC
AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas

What’s at stake: The two teams did not meet during the regular season, and the only thing standing between Texas winning its first Big 12 championship since 2009 in its last year in the league is Mike Gundy, the same coach who beat Oklahoma in the last Bedlam game between those two schools. Gundy downplayed that angle this week, saying “Texas will be going to the SEC and we’ll be in the Big 12 next year, no matter what,” Gundy said. “The SEC vs. the Big 12 or Big Ten or Pac-12, I just don’t think [the players] care. I don’t think it’s a factor.” But Texas has made it a mission all year to avenge its past losses on the way out the door, with Steve Sarkisian saying his team has a “John Wick mentality.” This game determines whether Texas stakes its claim to a College Football Playoff spot, while OSU has a chance to win its first Big 12 title ever and try to start the post-Texas/Oklahoma era on top of the league.

Texas wins if: The Longhorns stuff OSU running back Ollie Gordon II — the nation’s leading rusher, with 1,580 yards and 20 TDs — and make quarterback Alan Bowman beat them. Oklahoma loaded the box against him and Gordon still got 138 yards and two TDs, but it took 33 carries and a lot of patience. Bowman came up big in that game, throwing for 334 yards. But 6-foot-3, 362-pound UT defensive lineman T’Vondre Sweat leads a cast of large humans up front who allow just 85 rushing yards per game, fifth-best nationally.

Oklahoma State wins if: The Cowboys can figure out a way to get Gordon going and open up the play-action game. OSU will have to try to wear down the Longhorns’ front and make some headway on first and second down because Texas’ defense is the best in the nation on third down, allowing a conversion just 26% of the time. And they’ll have to hold on to the ball. Texas has scored 92 points off turnovers this season, fifth-most in the country. The only game where the Longhorns didn’t score off a turnover was against Oklahoma in their one loss. Being able to run the ball and keep the Texas offense off the field would make a big difference for the Cowboys.

X factor: Quinn Ewers. The Longhorns’ star quarterback is much improved this year, averaging 270.9 yards per game and completing 69.8% of his passes with 17 touchdowns to five interceptions. But last year against OSU on a windy day in Stillwater, he had arguably his roughest game for Texas, completing 19 of 49 passes with two TDs and three INTs as a 34-27 lead slipped away into a 41-34 loss. — Dave Wilson


SEC

No. 1 Georgia (12-0) vs. No. 8 Alabama (11-1)

Saturday, 4 p.m. ET, CBS
Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta

What’s at stake: The loser is likely out of the College Football Playoff picture, with Alabama for sure gone if the Crimson Tide lose. There is a scenario where both teams could get in should Alabama win the game. The surest way would be for Texas to lose to Oklahoma State in the Big 12 championship game, Florida State to lose to Louisville in the ACC championship game and Washington to beat Oregon in the Pac-12 championship game. Georgia is a playoff lock with a win and would almost certainly secure its second consecutive No. 1 seed.

Georgia wins if: The Bulldogs play like they have all season on the offensive line and dictate the flow of the game. There’s a lot to like about this Georgia team, but the offensive line has been the key, with three or four players who will play in the NFL. Quarterback Carson Beck has looked more in command each game, and one of the main reasons is that he has typically had clean pockets to throw from and plenty of time to throw. Georgia has allowed just two sacks in 12 games. If the Bulldogs are able to protect Beck and mix the run with the pass, keeping Alabama’s pass rush at bay, the Tide will have a hard time matching scores with a Georgia team that has been excellent at finishing games this season.

Alabama wins if: The Crimson Tide stay out of third-and-long situations on offense and don’t turn the ball over. Georgia ranks second in the country in third-down defense and feasts on offenses when they get behind the sticks on third down. Alabama quarterback Jalen Milroe has accounted for 26 touchdowns and turned the ball over just five times since his benching in Week 3 against South Florida. His ability to scramble and extend plays will be a big factor in this game. Georgia Tech quarterback Haynes King rushed for two touchdowns last week against Georgia, and Auburn’s two quarterbacks, Payton Thorne and Robby Ashford, combined for 125 rushing yards in the Bulldogs’ closest game of the season, a 27-24 win over Auburn on Sept. 30.

X factor: Both teams have some key players with injuries that make them questionable for the game and, at the very least, not full speed if they do play. Alabama’s top running back, Jase McClellan, injured his left foot last week against Auburn and is day-to-day depending on how much he’s able to practice this week. For Georgia, star tight end Brock Bowers had some soreness in his surgically repaired left ankle and didn’t play last week against Georgia Tech. Offensive guard Tate Ratledge (knee) was also held out last week. Receivers Ladd McConkey (ankle) and Rara Thomas (foot) would also fall into the questionable category. — Chris Low


Big Ten

No. 2 Michigan (12-0) vs. No. 16 Iowa (10-2)

Saturday, 8 p.m. ET, Fox
Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis

What’s at stake: Michigan can secure its second consecutive 13-0 season, third College Football Playoff spot and third straight outright Big Ten title for the first time in team history. “It’d mean a great deal,” said coach Jim Harbaugh, who will return to the sideline Saturday night after a three-game suspension imposed by the Big Ten. “So many [historic] things about this team, and they all talk about how there’s more to do.” Iowa can spoil Michigan’s CFP chances and win its first outright Big Ten title since 1985 (first of any kind since 2004). A Hawkeyes win would send them to a New Year’s Six bowl game.

Michigan wins if: The defensive line controls Iowa’s run game and quarterback J.J. McCarthy builds on his efficient performance against Ohio State to give Michigan an early lead. McCarthy talked this week about being a natural risk-taker. “A lot of situations in football, if you miss that opportunity to take that chance, you won’t ever get it back,” he said. Like in the Ohio State game, McCarthy can take a few calculated gambles but not too many against an Iowa defense adept at jumping routes out of its zone sets. If Michigan makes Iowa play from behind and have to tackle Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards all night, it should win comfortably.

Iowa wins if: It holds the turnover edge by at least two, records a defensive or special teams touchdown, and shortens the game by extending drives and limiting possessions. Neither offense uses much tempo, so the Hawkeyes simply need to stay on the field. “The ABCs of how we do offense are: Possess the football, advance the football, score the football,” offensive tackle Mason Richman said. “We always want to possess the ball. Shoot, if we can possess the ball for 40 minutes, that’d be great, and obviously, we’d feel pretty dominant, in that sense.” The Hawkeyes are minus-1 in turnover margin for the season and simply can’t afford any giveaways against the Wolverines.

X factors: Michigan defensive back Mike Sainristil and Iowa punter Tory Taylor. Sainristil, a former wide receiver, has become a playmaker in the back end for the Wolverines, recording five interceptions (returning two for touchdowns). Taylor, the inspiration for the “Punting Is Winning” T-shirts worn by Iowa fans, can change field position and bail out Iowa’s offense. He averages 47.7 yards per punt, with 29 placed inside the opponents’ 20-yard line.


ACC

No. 14 Louisville (10-2) vs. No. 4 Florida State (12-0)

Saturday, 8 p.m. ET, ABC
Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, North Carolina

What’s at stake: Florida State has a chance to reach its first College Football Playoff since 2014 with a win to finish off a 13-0 season. Although there has been much debate about what the committee will do with an undefeated Florida State team missing starting quarterback Jordan Travis, the latest CFP rankings have the Seminoles at No. 4 and in position to finish in the top four with a win over the Cardinals. Does margin of victory matter in this case? It should not, considering the Seminoles would have wins over three top-25 opponents (four if you consider Duke was ranked in the top 25 when the teams played). A Louisville victory secures its first Orange Bowl berth since 2007.

FSU wins if: It controls the line of scrimmage. With Travis out, Florida State relied on running back Trey Benson last week to help beat the Gators, and a dominant defensive front changed the tenor and demeanor in the second half. Florida State had six sacks and held Florida to 48 yards rushing after halftime. The challenge will be greater against a better Louisville offense, which has been dominant itself up front with its run game. Slowing down Jawhar Jordan and Isaac Guerendo and making Jack Plummer uncomfortable enough to make mistakes will be paramount. In its two losses this year, Louisville turned the ball over a combined six times. Creating turnovers is a must.

Louisville wins if: The Cardinals defense has been aggressive for most of the season — with 30 sacks and 54 tackles for loss on the year. Expect maybe even more against Florida State so the Cards can get after QB Tate Rodemaker and make him ineffective. Many of the Louisville defensive players have a familiarity with Rodemaker. He rallied Florida State to a win over the Cardinals last year when Travis got hurt during the game. To be as aggressive as possible, Louisville will have to get back to the way it played against the run in the first nine games. In two of the past three games, the Cards have allowed over 100 yards rushing — and in a loss to Kentucky last week, Ray Davis scored on a 37-yard run straight up the middle of the defense to win the game.

X factor: Keon Coleman. It is hard to call Coleman an X factor when he is so well known and established, but watch for him on special teams, where he has played a huge role for the Seminoles this season. His 34-yard punt return against Florida last week helped set up a go-ahead field goal. In a game that is expected to be close, a huge special teams play could be the difference. — Andrea Adelson

Matchups to watch

Pac-12: Troy Franklin and Tez Johnson vs. Washington’s defensive backs. The Ducks have one of the more prolific wide receiver tandems in the sport with Franklin and Johnson combining for 2,291 receiving yards and 23 touchdowns this season. Franklin, in particular, has 15 catches of 30 yards or more and three of 60 yards or more. The Huskies’ passing defense, however, has been a bit of a trick-or-treat unit this year. Although it ranks 124th in passing defense this season, it also has 15 interceptions so far (good enough to be tied for ninth in the country as a unit). Bo Nix has thrown only two interceptions all season, and although it’s difficult to see how Washington can contain both Johnson and Franklin, if the Huskies can force Nix into an interception at some point, they might be able to overcome their defensive shortcomings in one play and change the complexion of the game. — Paolo Uggetti

Big 12: Ollie Gordon II vs. Texas’ linebackers. Oklahoma State’s offense is backward in a lot of ways, in that the Cowboys get their big plays from an all-or-nothing run game and their efficiency from a quick but mostly low-impact passing game. Gordon is the most explosive RB in college football, but if you’re keeping him contained, OSU isn’t creating chunk plays and is settling for field goals at best. Texas’ linebackers — namely, Jaylan Ford and Anthony Hill Jr. — have been excellent in terms of big-play prevention in the run game, but OSU is going to have to create space for Gordon one way or another. There are almost no other realistic paths to victory. — Bill Connelly

SEC: Georgia’s offensive line vs. Alabama’s front seven on defense. Both units are really talented, but the Crimson Tide have to find a way to make the Bulldogs one-dimensional and pressure quarterback Carson Beck, who has been sacked only eight times this season and has completed 75% of his passes for 3,189 yards and 17 touchdowns when not pressured. The other key will be explosive plays. Alabama has given up far more than Nick Saban would like this season. The Tide have allowed 26 plays of 30 yards or longer, and only Arkansas, LSU, Florida and Vanderbilt have given up more in the SEC. Alabama needs to eliminate the big plays on defense and force Georgia to put together long drives. — Chris Low

Big Ten: Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards vs. Iowa’s defense. When these two teams met in the Big Ten championship in 2021, Corum was a young back who finished the game with 74 yards and a touchdown while Hassan Haskins had 56 yards and two touchdowns in the 42-3 win. Edwards took a backward pass from then-quarterback Cade McNamara and threw a 75-yard touchdown pass to Roman Wilson. In last year’s Big Ten championship game against Purdue, Edwards played without Corum, who was dealing with an injury, and exploded for 185 yards and a touchdown. The run game for Michigan is what drives this team, and it’s going to face a tough test in Iowa’s defense, which ranks 18th in rush yards allowed per game, giving up 106.4 yards. Corum is coming off the Ohio State game, where he had 88 rushing yards and two touchdowns and helped propel the Wolverines to the win. Corum and Edwards are hoping to do much of the same in this game against another good defense in Iowa. — Tom VanHaaren

ACC: Louisville DE Ashton Gillotte vs. FSU QB Tate Rodemaker. It is no secret Louisville will want to come after Rodemaker as much as possible. Here is where Gillotte comes in — as one of the top rush ends in the entire country. Gillotte has 14.5 tackles for loss, 11 sacks and 3 forced fumbles this season. His ability to create havoc is well known around the league. Florida State has done an exceptional job this season protecting the football — ranking No. 1 in the nation with only five turnovers all year. If Gillotte can get to Rodemaker and force a mistake, that could be a game-changer for the Cards. — Adelson

Quotes of the week

“My emotions, my focus has been with the team the entire time. It’s been a tremendous season, right in the exact position that we hoped for, that we worked so hard to be in. It’s onward now. We’ve accomplished many of our goals, but not all of them yet. … The next is winning the conference championship, so that’s where our focus is. I would say it’s good to be back, but I never left.” — Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh on returning from a three-game suspension.

“No offense to Tim Tebow, but this guy’s different. Tim was a different running style, a very different running style in terms of what they did and how they did things. This guy is like when I used to ask my sons who they were playing with on the Madden game, and they would say, ‘I’m playing with the Ravens,’ and I would say, ‘Why are you playing with the Ravens?’ And they would say, ‘They’ve got Lamar Jackson, and nobody can tackle him.’ Well, this guy is a bigger, physical version of that. He’s playing at a different speed than everybody else.” — Georgia coach Kirby Smart on Alabama QB Jalen Milroe.

“It’s been a heck of a journey — to think about where we were when we first started in Year 1 and just kind of changing the culture and kind of building upon from Year 1 to Year 2. Some tough losses along the way, but I thought our culture just continued to build. We continued to bring in talent along the way. This year, the thing that I think we’ve been able to do is find ways to win.” — Texas coach Steve Sarkisian on getting Texas to the Big 12 championship game in his third year in Austin.

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Report: Kelly rejected LSU buyouts, seeks $54M

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Report: Kelly rejected LSU buyouts, seeks M

Former LSU football coach Brian Kelly rejected two financial settlement offers from the university, and his attorneys have given LSU officials a Monday deadline to confirm in writing that they’ll pay him the $54 million he’s owed under the terms of his contract.

Kelly, who was fired on Oct. 26, was in the fourth season of a 10-year, $95 million contract.

According to documents obtained by the Baton Rouge Advocate, former LSU athletic director Scott Woodward offered Kelly a lump-sum payment of $25 million on the day he was fired. Woodward also offered to remove the mitigation language in Kelly’s contract, which would have reduced the buyout amount if he coached again.

LSU executive deputy athletic director Julie Cromer later increased the settlement offer to $30 million in two payments, according to the documents.

Kelly, who had a 34-14 record at LSU, rejected both offers, according to the report.

In a Nov. 5 letter to new LSU athletic director Verge Ausberry and Board of Supervisors member John Carmouche, Kelly’s attorneys said they want university officials to confirm by 6 p.m. ET Monday that the school intends to “fulfill its contractual obligation” to pay Kelly the “full liquidated damages.”

“Absent this written confirmation by that date, Coach Kelly will pursue all available legal remedies,” the letter said.

Kelly’s attorneys said in the letter that LSU officials previously confirmed that the coach was fired without cause, meaning he would be owed 90% of his remaining compensation.

If a lesser amount isn’t negotiated, the university would owe Kelly $54 million in monthly payments through 2031, minus any future salary he receives in coaching.

Kelly’s lawyers told LSU officials that the coach was still “open to additional offers” if the university provided written confirmation that it intends to pay the $54 million he’s owed.

Woodward, who oversaw LSU’s athletic department since 2019, stepped down from his position Oct. 30, a day after Louisiana Gov. Jeff Landry criticized him for giving Kelly such a one-sided contract. Landry also suggested that Woodward wouldn’t select the Tigers’ next football coach.

“We are not going down a failed path. And I want to tell you something: This is a pattern,” Landry told reporters during a news conference at the state capitol on Oct. 29. “The guy that’s here now that wrote that contract cost Texas A&M 70-some million dollars. Right now, we’ve got a $53 million liability. We are not doing that again. And you know what? I believe that we’re going to find a great coach.”

Landry criticized Woodward for agreeing to a similar one-sided coaching contract when he was Texas A&M‘s athletic director. The Aggies owed football coach Jimbo Fisher more than $76 million when they fired him in November 2023, which was nearly triple the highest-known coaching contract buyout at a public school at the time.

However, it was Ross Bjork, who succeeded Woodward at Texas A&M in 2019, who gave Fisher a four-year extension just before the 2021 season that made his 10-year deal worth more than $90 million. Woodward originally gave Fisher a 10-year, $75 million contract when he was hired away from Florida State.

Ausberry, LSU’s former deputy athletic director, was named interim AD and then promoted to replace Woodward on Nov. 4.

Frank Wilson is LSU’s interim coach. The Tigers lost 20-9 at No. 4 Alabama on Saturday, dropping their record to 5-4.

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Projecting the CFP top 12: Who’s No. 2?

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Projecting the CFP top 12: Who's No. 2?

Following the first College Football Playoff rankings of the season, selection committee chair Mack Rhoades wanted to make sure reporters understood the most integral part of the ranking process.

“We’ve watched the games,” he said on the weekly teleconference. “Let me repeat that; we watch the games.”

That won’t make it easier to decide who should be No. 2 on Tuesday night: Indiana, which escaped a 3-6 Penn State team, or Texas A&M, which soundly beat a CFP top-25 team in Mizzou. A deeper dive into the statistics and résumés of both undefeated teams — plus the context of why the group ranked them No. 2 and No. 3, respectively, last week — will factor into their discussions. It might be a bigger debate than how far No. 7 BYU should fall this week after a 29-7 loss to No. 8 Texas Tech.

Here’s a prediction of what the selection committee will do when it reveals its second of six rankings Tuesday night (7 ET, ESPN).

Jump to:
Ranking | Bracket

Projecting the top 12

Why they could be here: Ohio State earned its fourth Big Ten road win of the season Saturday, albeit against a 2-8 Purdue team that hasn’t won since Sept. 6 against Southern Illinois. The Buckeyes entered Saturday ranked No. 33 in strength of schedule, according to ESPN Analytics, but No. 1 in game control and No. 3 in strength of record. “So it was certainly close [between Ohio State, Indiana and Texas A&M], but when we looked at film, and we’re blessed to have committee members and coaches that do a lot of film work, we just felt like Ohio State had a slight edge when we think about offensive line play and then a slight edge defensively,” Rhoades said after the first ranking release Tuesday. “That was really the outcome. Ohio State has some, I’m going to call them explosive players, that probably stood out as well.”

Why they could be lower: It would be difficult for the committee to justify dropping the Buckeyes below Indiana after the Hoosiers were fortunate to escape Penn State with a win Saturday, but undefeated Texas A&M continues to make a case for the top spot. The Aggies, who entered the week ranked No. 1 in strength of record, earned another CFP top-25 win at Mizzou on Saturday.

Need to know: Ohio State entered Week 11 with the best chance in the country to reach the playoff (99.2%), the best chance to earn the No. 1 seed (41.1%) and the best chance to win it all (27%).

Toughest remaining game: Nov. 29 at Michigan. It’s the only CFP top-25 team left on Ohio State’s regular-season schedule. The Buckeyes are trying to avoid a fifth straight loss to their rivals.


Why they could be here: The road win against Penn State isn’t going to help the Hoosiers’ résumé much, but they narrowly avoided putting their first-round bye in jeopardy. Indiana should remain safely in the top four, thanks to a double-digit road win against No. 9 Oregon and another CFP top-25 win at Iowa. The Hoosiers beat two teams that were in a nailbiter Saturday before Oregon won on a game-winning field goal at Iowa. Penn State and Iowa are the only opponents Indiana hasn’t defeated by double digits. The historic 63-10 win against 6-3 Illinois is another respectable résumé booster, even though it’s not against a CFP top-25 opponent.

Why they could be lower: Texas A&M continues to make a push to move up after its 38-17 win at Mizzou on Saturday. The Aggies entered Week 11 ranked higher than Indiana in strength of schedule and strength of record.

Need to know: Both of Indiana’s remaining opponents — Wisconsin and Purdue — have six losses. The Hoosiers entered Week 11 with the best chance in the Big Ten to reach the conference championship game.

Toughest remaining game: Nov. 28 at Purdue. It’s on a Friday night against an in-state rival — and Indiana still has at least a 97% chance to win, according to ESPN Analytics.


Why they could be here: With Saturday’s win at Mizzou, the Aggies have won three straight SEC road games to go along with their Sept. 13 win at Notre Dame. The committee will discuss, though, that Missouri was without injured starting quarterback Beau Pribula, and the Aggies easily handled freshman quarterback Matt Zollers, who was making his first start. Texas A&M entered Week 11 ranked No. 18 in defensive efficiency, behind Ohio State (No. 3) and Indiana (No. 2), and that played a role in the committee’s decision last week. “What we saw in A&M is a really, really good football team,” Rhoades said Tuesday. “They went into Death Valley, I thought dominated a good LSU team. You have a dynamic playmaker at quarterback, Marcel Reed. He can beat you with his arm. He can beat you with his feet. Impressive win, certainly going on the road, South Bend. I think you’re talking about really small margins when you think about the difference between Ohio State, Indiana and A&M, and then I think statistically, when we looked at A&M defensively, they’re just lower than both Ohio State and Indiana. We had to make a hard decision, and you’re trying to find separators, and that was a separator for us.”

Why they could be higher: Though Indiana was fortunate to escape Penn State with a win, Texas A&M went on the road and beat the committee’s No. 22 team soundly, scoring 24 points in the second half against Mizzou.

Need to know: Texas A&M entered Saturday with a 56.7% chance to earn a first-round bye but had less than a 50% chance to beat Texas in the regular-season finale.

Toughest remaining game: Nov. 28 at Texas. It’s the only ranked opponent remaining on the Aggies’ schedule, and their last road game.


Why they could be here: If the Tide didn’t start any higher in the first ranking, it’s unlikely a home win against LSU on Saturday will boost them above any of the undefeated teams. The head-to-head win will keep them above Georgia, though, as the committee’s highest-ranked one-loss team. The Tide’s road win against the No. 5 Bulldogs is one of the best in the country — arguably better than any win the teams above them can claim — but their season-opening loss to Florida State is holding them back. The Oct. 11 victory at Mizzou is still good, even if the Tigers fall out of the top 25 this week, and the committee will recognize Bama beat Mizzou when starting quarterback Beau Pribula was healthy. The Tide also have a CFP top-25 win against Tennessee, which had a bye this week. “I’m not sure, when you look at a résumé, anybody had a better stretch of four games,” Rhoades said of the Tide on Tuesday. “When you think about Alabama, really, really impressive, two of those wins on the road. Going into Athens, one of the hardest, toughest environments to be able to get out of there with a win. There was certainly discussion about the Florida State loss early on, but just felt like that four-game stretch — which by the way, historical in the SEC. Nobody has beaten four straight ranked teams without a bye.”

Why they could be lower: It would be hard for the committee to justify any movement up or down this week, given the teams around them won, the head-to-head results and last week’s ranking.

Need to know: Alabama’s strength of schedule was No. 4 in the country heading into Week 11 — better than every team ranked ahead of it. The Tide was No. 5, though, in strength of record, trailing the committee’s top three teams.

Toughest remaining game: Nov. 15 vs. Oklahoma. This is the last ranked opponent Alabama will face.


Why they could be here: Georgia didn’t need a second-half surge at Mississippi State, after rallying from a tie or from behind during its previous three games. The committee likes what it sees from Georgia, but it has to account for head-to-head results, which is why Georgia should continue to be sandwiched between Alabama and Ole Miss again Tuesday night. “I think Gunner Stockton at quarterback has really progressed,” Rhoades said Tuesday. “It certainly feels like they have more confidence in him, doing a lot more with him. Again, he’s another maybe similar to Marcel Reed where he can beat you with his arm, he can beat you with his feet. The head-to-head against Ole Miss, obviously we took that into account. We absolutely took into account the loss at home versus Alabama.”

Why they could be lower: It would be surprising to see the Bulldogs move Tuesday night, given that nothing drastic happened around them.

Need to know: Georgia will play its last SEC game of the season Saturday against Texas, as it finishes the month against Charlotte and rival Georgia Tech.

Toughest remaining game: Nov. 15 vs. Texas. The Longhorns beat Vanderbilt on Nov. 1 and enter this game on a four-game winning streak. They also had a bye to prepare for the trip to Athens, while Georgia is coming off a road win against Mississippi State.


Why they could be here: A lopsided win against The Citadel won’t impress the selection committee, but the Rebels already earned their respect in the first ranking. Ole Miss will still be ranked behind Georgia because of its head-to-head road loss to the Bulldogs on Oct. 18. The Rebels entered Saturday with a slight edge over Texas Tech in strength of record, but with greater separation in strength of schedule, where Ole Miss was No. 25 and Texas Tech was No. 58. The committee will also consider the Rebels’ road defeat to Georgia is a better loss than the Red Raiders’ road setback to Arizona State, which has lost two of its past four games.

Why they could be lower: Texas Tech earned a CFP top-10 win Saturday when it beat previously undefeated BYU. Ole Miss’ best win was Oct. 25 at No. 12 Oklahoma.

Need to know: The Rebels’ 45-10 win against Tulane on Sept. 20 continues to enhance their overall record strength, even though it’s not a CFP top 25 win. The Green Wave earned an important win at Memphis on Friday, keeping their playoff hopes alive. Tulane also beat Northwestern and Duke this season, and the committee pays attention to opponents’ opponents (yes, you read that right).

Toughest remaining game: Nov. 28 at Mississippi State. The Egg Bowl isn’t a gimme, even after the Bulldogs were beaten soundly Saturday by Georgia. A loss could mean a first-round road trip instead of a home game for Ole Miss — or getting bumped out of the bracket.


Why they could be here: The Red Raiders looked like the best team in the Big 12 on Saturday, and the committee will likely reflect that in its second ranking. The double-digit win against previously undefeated BYU is better than Oregon’s best win, but the loss to Arizona State could play a role in the committee keeping Texas Tech behind Ole Miss. Still, the committee factors in injuries to key players, and the Red Raiders were without starting quarterback Behren Morton (knee) on the road in their close defeat to the Sun Devils. “The loss at Arizona State without Behren at quarterback, Arizona State wins that late, so we do talk about quality wins,” Rhoades said Tuesday. “We also talk about quality losses.”

Why they could be higher: The selection committee also rewarded Texas Tech for its road win against No. 13 Utah. On Saturday, Texas Tech earned its ninth victory by at least 20 points this season, showing the committee its ability to win convincingly consistently. The Red Raiders’ defense held BYU to its fewest points in any game over the past two seasons.

Need to know: Texas Tech and BYU are still the most likely matchup in the Big 12 title game. According to ESPN Analytics, Texas Tech has a 93% chance to reach it, BYU is second with a 55% chance and Cincinnati is third (19%). If BYU captures the Big 12, Texas Tech could claim a regular-season win against the eventual Big 12 champ, which would help boost its résumé and the case for playoff inclusion as the league runner-up.

Toughest remaining game: Nov. 29 at West Virginia. The Red Raiders have at least an 80% chance to win their two remaining regular-season games, but this one is slightly more difficult than against UCF because it’s on the road at a difficult venue.


Why they could be here: The Ducks got a much-needed résumé boost with Saturday’s win at Iowa, their first against a CFP top-25 team. Rhoades had said last week that Oregon had the lowest record strength of any team in the committee’s top 10. Saturday’s win also showed the group some impressive depth and grit, with the Ducks winning on the road in horrible weather and without multiple injured starters, including three of their top receivers. The question is whether Iowa will still be a top-25 team Tuesday now that the Hawkeyes have three losses.

Why they could be higher: Oregon has been passing the eye test, ranking in the top five in offensive and defensive efficiency entering Saturday. With the exception of the two close road wins at Iowa and Penn State, the Ducks have dominated their opponents, ranking No. 4 in the country in game control — trailing only Ohio State, Indiana and Texas Tech.

Need to know: Oregon has at least a 70% chance to win each of its remaining games (Minnesota, USC and at Washington), according to ESPN Analytics, but it’s still unlikely to reach the Big Ten title game. The Ducks’ head-to-head home loss to the Hoosiers is a major reason.

Toughest remaining game: Nov. 22 vs. USC. The Trojans are 7-2 with one Big Ten loss and opportunities to climb in the ranking. A win at Oregon would flip the script in the conference pecking order, and if USC can beat Iowa Saturday, this game will be the Trojans’ Super Bowl.


Why they could be here: Notre Dame had no trouble dismantling an overmatched Navy team that was playing without injured starting quarterback Blake Horvath. It was Notre Dame’s seventh straight win since starting the season 0-2. The committee considered that those two losses in last week’s first ranking were by a total of four points to two CFP top-25 teams, including No. 3 and unbeaten Texas A&M. The committee was also impressed with Notre Dame’s 34-24 win against USC on Oct. 18, and that will continue to resonate with the Trojans improving to 7-2 after Friday’s win against Northwestern. Rhoades said Notre Dame had been “much, much better defensively” of late. “You look at their backfield, Jadarian Price, Jeremiyah Love, probably the best backfield in the country when you think about one-two punch,” Rhoades said. “Going into the Southern Cal game, they lost their starting center for the year, and they were able to overcome that and run for a bunch of yards, again, against Southern Cal.”

Why they could be lower: This all depends on how far BYU drops. The Cougars will most likely be at No. 10 above Notre Dame and the two-loss pack of teams, or at No. 12, and below OU and Texas but above Utah. If the Cougars drop to No. 12, Notre Dame would get a slight promotion by default this week.

Need to know: Notre Dame still has the best chance of any team to win out, according to ESPN Analytics.

Toughest remaining game: Nov. 15 at Pitt. The Panthers might be playing the best of any team in the ACC during their five-game winning streak. They also had a bye week to prepare for the Irish.


Why they could be here: The Longhorns had a bye after earning a top-12 spot in the first ranking. Texas has won four straight, including CFP top-25 wins against Oklahoma and Vanderbilt. Vandy needed overtime to beat a 4-6 Auburn team Saturday, but that win should continue to help the Longhorns’ résumé. The Oct. 4 loss at Florida remains a stain on that résumé, though. The Longhorns’ 14-7 season-opening road defeat to No. 1-ranked Ohio State isn’t what keeps Texas out of the playoff.

Why they could be lower: It depends on how far BYU falls after losing 29-7 to Texas Tech on Saturday. BYU’s lone win against a CFP top-25 team was a 24-21 decision at home over Utah on Oct. 18. BYU entered Week 11 ranked No. 45 in strength of schedule, while Texas was No. 11. BYU didn’t lose to Florida, though — its lone defeat is to a CFP top-10 team.

Need to know: No team has a better opportunity to impress the selection committee in the final three weeks of the season than Texas, which will face two CFP top-five teams in No. 5 Georgia and No. 3 Texas A&M. If Texas splits those games and finishes as a three-loss team, it could still be ranked in the top 12 but might not make the playoff. It would be a similar situation to what happened to three-loss Alabama last year, which finished No. 11 on Selection Day, but was excluded from the playoff to make room for ACC champion Clemson. If Texas wins both games, it could jump Notre Dame and put the Irish in a similarly precarious position at No. 11 or No. 12.

Toughest remaining game: Nov. 28 vs. Texas A&M. It certainly won’t be easy to win at Georgia on Saturday, but the Longhorns had a bye week to prepare for it while the Bulldogs were on the road. Texas will face in-state rival Texas A&M on a Friday night in the regular-season finale, the second top-five team it will face in a three-week span.


Why they could be here: The Sooners had a bye but are stuck behind Texas because of their head-to-head loss to the Longhorns on Oct. 11. Wins against Tennessee and Michigan, though, have them within range of making the 12-team field, and it helped that the committee ranked the Vols No. 25 as its highest-ranked three-loss team.

Why they could be lower: The selection committee probably wouldn’t shuffle this order, considering Texas and Oklahoma were off this week, but OU could stay at 12 in the second ranking if the committee keeps BYU in the top 10.

Need to know: If the playoff were today, Oklahoma would still be bumped out of the field during the seeding process to make room for the ACC champion, which is still projected to be ranked outside of the committee’s top 12 but guaranteed a spot as one of the five highest-ranked conference champions.

Toughest remaining game: Nov. 15 at Alabama. The Sooners will be in a must-win situation in Tuscaloosa, as the rest of their résumé likely won’t be enough to compensate for a third loss, given that they’re already on the bubble in the eyes of the committee.


Why they could be here: The Cougars have a good win (Oct. 18 against Utah) and an eyebrow-raising defeat (Saturday). Texas Tech is a good team, but how BYU lost to the Red Raiders will matter. BYU was outplayed, and its offense was stifled: 67 rushing yards, 3 turnovers, 4.9 yards per pass, while converting just 3 of 14 third downs. A drop behind two-loss Texas and Oklahoma isn’t unreasonable. The Cougars have three wins against teams with fewer than four losses: Utah (7-2), Arizona (6-3) and East Carolina (6-3). But they entered Saturday ranked No. 45 in strength of schedule — significantly behind Notre Dame (23), Texas (11) and Oklahoma (13). The loss to Texas Tech opens the door for the committee to reevaluate BYU’s body of work. The committee would still likely honor BYU’s head-to-head win against Utah, though, giving the Cougars a safety net to stay in the top 12.

Why they could be higher: It was BYU’s first loss of the season, on the road, and to a top-10 team leading the nation in defensive efficiency.

Need to know: If BYU runs the table and reaches the Big 12 title game, it would clinch a spot in the playoff with a win. What happens if the Cougars finish as a two-loss runner-up with a second lopsided loss to Texas Tech? Where they’re placed in the committee’s second ranking Tuesday night will provide some insight and show how much margin for error they might have. If they land at No. 12 on Selection Day, even as the Big 12 runner-up, they’d be excluded to make room for the fifth-highest-ranked conference champion, which is projected to be South Florida out of the American Conference.

Toughest remaining game: Nov. 22 at Cincinnati. The Big 12 race isn’t over yet, and Cincinnati might have something to say about it — unless the Bearcats play the way they did during a 45-14 loss at Utah. Cincinnati still has the third-best chance to reach the Big 12 title game behind Texas Tech and BYU.

Bracket

Based on the rankings above, the seeding would be:

First-round byes

No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Indiana
No. 3 Texas A&M (SEC champ)
No. 4 Alabama

First-round games

On campus, Dec. 19 and 20

No. 12 South Florida (American champ) at No. 5 Georgia
No. 11 Georgia Tech (ACC champ) at No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 Texas at No. 7 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ)
No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oregon

Quarterfinal games

At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.

No. 12 South Florida/No. 5 Georgia winner vs. No. 4 Alabama
No. 11 Georgia Tech/No. 6 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 3 Texas A&M
No. 10 Texas/No. 7 Texas Tech winner vs. No. 2 Indiana
No. 9 Notre Dame/No. 8 Oregon winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State

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Week 11 Power Rankings: Texas A&M, Indiana swap spots; three newcomers join the list

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Week 11 Power Rankings: Texas A&M, Indiana swap spots; three newcomers join the list

By mid-November, most college football teams are what they are. But each squad has areas that can be sharpened for the stretch run, especially those in the top 25.

Spots in the rankings can be tenuous, as Washington, Memphis, Iowa and ACC contenders Virginia and Louisville found out the hard way Saturday. Even teams much higher in the rankings, such as Oregon and Vanderbilt, came away from narrow wins with areas to clean up for the all-important games ahead. BYU certainly has things to assess on offense after being held to seven points and only 67 net rushing yards in its first loss of the season, at Texas Tech.

For some, such as Oregon, it’s simply getting healthier at key positions. For others, it might be improving third-down defense or special teams execution or scoring touchdowns in the red zone. As good as Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson has been, his deep-ball success is something that needs an upgrade if the Tide continue to roll.

Here’s our weekly look at the top 25 and the areas that will demand attention as these teams look to remain in the rankings. — Adam Rittenberg

Previous ranking: 1

The undefeated and top-ranked Buckeyes could lose out and probably not fall out of the top 25. The biggest question facing the Buckeyes is whether they can earn the No. 1 seed in the College Football Playoff along with a first-round bye. Ohio State can all but clinch a bye by ending its four-game losing streak against Michigan. After that, the Buckeyes can pretty much wrap up the No. 1 seed by winning the Big Ten championship game, presumably over No. 2 Indiana. With a victory over Texas in its hip pocket, Ohio State has a strong résumé. With a strong finish to the Big Ten slate, the Buckeyes could head into the playoff as the favorite to defend their 2024 national championship. — Jake Trotter


Previous ranking: 3

The Aggies didn’t play incredibly well, but the result was another double-digit win on the road against a ranked opponent, something in which they take solace. Mike Elko said Marcel Reed didn’t have the full playbook at his disposal, and they stuck with a short passing game, with only two of Reed’s throws traveling more than 10 yards. Then they followed a similar plan: line up, run the ball, and dominate up front down the stretch, finishing with 243 rushing yards on 6.3 yards per carry. Elko was frustrated that they also gave up 207 yards on the ground, but the Aggies never relented and allowed Missouri back in the game. A&M has to keep its feet in front of it at 9-0 and No. 3 in the CFP; it has 3-6 South Carolina and 1-9 Samford at home before a trip to Austin to face Texas. The Aggies have scored 30 points or more in eight of their nine games this season, including 49, 45 and 38 the past three weeks, but still can keep growing in the passing game. — Dave Wilson


Previous ranking: 2

The Hoosiers aren’t falling out of the top 25 and are probably bound for their first Big Ten championship game appearance, as they finish the regular season with Wisconsin and Purdue. But Saturday’s escape at Penn State provided plenty of focus items for coach Curt Cignetti and his team. Similar to 2024, late-season offensive line injuries have impacted IU, which surrendered three sacks, eight tackles for loss and six quarterback hurries in its win. Indiana played without starting guard Drew Evans and lost starting tackle Kahlil Benson for a stretch of the Penn State game, although he returned. Quarterback Fernando Mendoza was brilliant in the clutch but also faced a ton of heat. Indiana’s typical lockdown defense gave up eight third-down conversions and three plays of 30 yards or longer in the win, which coordinator Bryant Haines certainly will address. — Rittenberg


Previous ranking: 4

Alabama coach Kalen DeBoer said the Crimson Tide made just enough plays to defeat LSU 20-9 at home Saturday. But DeBoer and quarterback Ty Simpson were noticeably frustrated with the offense’s inability to get into a rhythm. The Tide’s lack of a consistent running game continues to put too much pressure on Simpson to make big plays in the passing game. The Crimson Tide ranks 14th in the SEC in rushing, gaining 111.9 yards per game. It was worse against LSU’s defense, as the Tide had only 56 rushing yards on 26 attempts. Jam Miller was back and ran eight times for 13 yards; Daniel Hill had 21 yards on seven attempts. If Alabama is going to get past Oklahoma’s menacing defense Saturday and remain in the hunt for an SEC title, it’s going to have to find a way to run the ball more effectively. — Mark Schlabach


Previous ranking: 8

The Bulldogs had one of their better defensive performances in Saturday’s 41-21 victory at Mississippi State, which many Georgia fans feared would be a trap game with next week’s home game against Texas looming. Georgia gave up 322 yards of offense and came up with a season-high three sacks, after totaling only eight in its first eight games. After Mississippi State drove 75 yards for a touchdown on its opening possession, it had only 87 yards of offense the rest of the half. Georgia scored the next 38 points and never looked back. Defensive coordinator Glenn Schumann dialed up plenty of pressure early, helping put Mississippi State in third-and-long situations throughout the first half. With much-improved Arch Manning and the Longhorns coming to Sanford Stadium next week, and another battle against in-state rival Georgia Tech and star quarterback Haynes King still to play in the regular-season finale, Georgia’s defense needs to continue to improve. — Schlabach


Previous ranking: 9

The Red Raiders aced their greatest test yet Saturday with a 29-7 win over unbeaten BYU. Coach Joey McGuire’s squad was ready for the national spotlight in a must-win game for his squad’s Big 12 title hopes. Texas Tech’s defense was excellent again with 11 third-down stops and three takeaways while holding BYU to a season-low 67 rushing yards. This would’ve been a real blowout if the Red Raiders hadn’t struggled to finish drives in the red zone, with touchdowns on only two of seven red zone opportunities. That’s one critical area where this team can keep improving, especially as quarterback Behren Morton continues to get back in rhythm after sitting out two games because of a hairline fracture in his right fibula. — Max Olson


Previous ranking: 6

The Rebels took care of business in a 49-0 rout of The Citadel at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium. Ole Miss had 603 yards of offense, including 151 rushing yards. Quarterback Trinidad Chambliss completed 29 of 33 passes for 333 yards with three touchdowns. Defensively, the Rebels had their way against the FCS team, holding the Bulldogs to only five first downs and 106 yards of offense. It was the first time since 2014 that Ole Miss held an opponent to fewer than 150 yards of offense. With Florida coming to Oxford, Mississippi, next week, Ole Miss’ biggest focus might be maintaining its focus. Rebels coach Lane Kiffin is being mentioned as a potential candidate at Florida, which fired coach Billy Napier on Oct. 19. With a potential CFP appearance and SEC title still in play, the Rebels need to eliminate distractions. — Schlabach


Previous ranking: 5

After hovering on the fringes of the top 10 in the first CFP standings, the Ducks solidified their place with their best win of the season against Iowa. But there are challenges ahead, especially with USC and Washington still on the schedule, and a shorthanded receiver corps. The Ducks ran the ball effectively with multiple backs against Iowa, finishing with 261 yards and averaging 7.3 yards per rush. Quarterback Dante Moore made several clutch throws on the winning drive, but he will need to be sharper for Oregon to keep up with USC and Washington. If wide receivers Dakorien Moore and Gary Bryant Jr., and top tight end Kenyon Sadiq remain out, Oregon will need to develop other reliable pass catchers. The Ducks also will look to make more fourth-down stops after Iowa converted three of four attempts, including a go-ahead touchdown with 1:51 left. — Rittenberg


Previous ranking: 10

A 49-10 domination of Navy was the latest easy win for the Irish, who’ve won seven straight — all by double digits — since an 0-2 start. Notre Dame faces a ranked Pitt team this week — probably its last serious potential stumbling block between now and a playoff bid — which means Saturday’s showdown with the Panthers is do-or-die. The Irish are averaging 9.5 yards per dropback this season, second best nationally, while Jeremiyah Love and the ground game have continued to impress. The key to beating Pitt will probably come down to protecting CJ Carr. Notre Dame’s O-line has been exceptional after a shaky Week 1 against Miami, but Pitt is fifth nationally in tackles for loss and the Panthers figure to be particularly aggressive in trying to rattle Carr. — David Hale


Previous ranking: 7

BYU’s impressive run of doing just enough to win finally came to an end at Texas Tech, during which its offensive limitations were on full display. As effective as true freshman quarterback Bear Bachmeier has been at times this season, that usually sprouted from the run game — either with him or LJ Martin. This is just not a team built to play from behind and score quickly. The Cougars are still in the playoff mix, but they didn’t look like a playoff team in Lubbock on the biggest stage they’ll get during the regular season. BYU needs more from its passing game if it can win its way to a possible rematch with Texas Tech in the Big 12 title game. — Kyle Bonagura


Previous ranking: 13

The Longhorns are getting right at the right time, and had a bye week to rest up and fine-tune. Arch Manning threw 328 yards in Texas’ past game against Vanderbilt, second most in his career after the 346 the week before against Mississippi State. Manning has grown up this season, coach Steve Sarkisian said, but so has his offensive line, allowing Manning time to work through reads. Two of the Longhorns’ biggest stars who got off to slow starts have been on fire: receiver Ryan Wingo (273 of his 593 yards this season have come in the past two games) and edge rusher Collin Simmons (6½ sacks the past four games). With four SEC teams ahead of them in the CFP rankings, this week’s trip to Georgia is essentially a play-in game. Win, and all of a sudden, things get really interesting for the preseason No. 1 team. — Wilson


Previous ranking: 11

Wins in two of their final three games would almost certainly ensure a top-25 finish for the 7-2 Sooners. The question is what path they take. Oklahoma’s playoff hopes probably hinge on the outcome of next weekend’s trip to one-loss Alabama. From there, back-to-back home games against Missouri and LSU look much more manageable now than they did at the start of the season. The key to all three of those games will be the play of quarterback John Mateer, whose accuracy and passing metrics have dipped significantly since he underwent right hand surgery in late September. Playoff or not, this has been a positive fall for the Sooners as Oklahoma has rebounded from a 6-7 finish in 2024 and Brent Venables has coached himself off the hot seat. A strong finish over the final three weeks of the regular season would not only keep the Sooners in the top 25 but should bode well as Oklahoma looks to build on its momentum this offseason. — Eli Lederman


Previous ranking: 17

The Utes were off over the weekend but are in an interesting playoff position, coming in at No. 13 in the initial playoff rankings. What this means is that it’s possible for the Utes to win out, miss the Big 12 title game and still have a decent shot at a playoff spot with a 10-2 record. It gets complicated because their two losses are to Texas Tech and BYU, meaning they would be evaluated against at least one of them for an at-large spot. But this is the beauty of the playoff format. Utah has everything to play for late in the year. — Bonagura


Previous ranking: 16

After giving up only 34 combined points against LSU and Missouri in October, Vandy’s defense has sprung some leaks in November. The Commodores gave up 34 points and 7.1 yards per play in a loss at Texas a week ago, and on Saturday they were hit for 38 points and 6.9 yards per play against a previously moribund Auburn offense. They still have playoff hopes at 8-2, and they get a much-needed bye week now. But against an improving Kentucky team and an explosive Tennessee team, the defense will desperately need to find its legs again. Quarterback Diego Pavia and the offense came through against Auburn and can keep up in track meets, but they’ll need a little help, especially against Tennessee. — Bill Connelly


Previous ranking: 19

The Hurricanes beat Syracuse 38-10 thanks in large part to a newfound creativity with their offensive playcalling that had been missing for the bulk of the season. Malachi Toney threw a touchdown pass to Carson Beck; Beck threw a touchdown pass to offensive tackle Francis Mauigoa and off the Canes went to victory. It was a welcome change to see Miami open up its playbook a little bit more to get some momentum going for an offense that had become stagnant. Miami needs to continue to do that to keep defenses on their toes after the Hurricanes had grown somewhat predictable with their preference to run between the tackles. Without Mark Fletcher Jr. and CJ Daniels — two of their best playmakers on offense — Miami found a way to win and that is a good sign for the remainder of the season. — Andrea Adelson


Previous ranking: 15

An off week came at an opportune time for the Yellow Jackets, as their prime ACC competition stumbled in Week 11, leaving the door wide open for Georgia Tech to make it to the conference title game. ESPN’s FPI now gives the Jackets the best odds of winning the ACC (35.2%) with a date against 1-9 Boston College next up on the docket. Tech’s playoff profile, should it not with the ACC, is still a bit thin, with its best win — Clemson — looking far less impressive than it did in September. But Georgia Tech’s last two games of the season are against ranked foes — Pitt and Georgia — and winning both probably would assure the Jackets of a playoff berth, regardless of what happens in the conference championship game. — Hale


Previous ranking: 20

In its 38-17 win over Northwestern on Friday night, USC again won a game in which it relied on the run. For the fourth time in five games, the Trojans had at least 30 rushing attempts or more and were led by King Miller, a former walk-on, who now has three games of at least 100 rushing yards. Miller’s ascension has given Lincoln Riley’s offense a blueprint in which it doesn’t have to rely so much on Jayden Maiava‘s passing game the way Riley has in past seasons with different quarterbacks (Maiava himself has six touchdowns on the ground this season) — in fact, this season, USC ranks inside the top 25 in the country in rushing yards per game and top 10 in rushing yards per attempt. Three wins away from a likely berth in the CFP and its defense showing signs of improvement, the final stretch might not come down to the Trojans’ gamebreakers at wide receiver such as Makai Lemon and Ja’Kobi Lane but rather it’s the rushing attack, which could be what finally gets them over the edge. — Paolo Uggetti


Previous ranking: 21

At 7-2, the Wolverines remain a stealth playoff contender. Both of their losses (at Oklahoma, at USC) came against ranked opponents on the road. And though they don’t have any true noteworthy wins, that opportunity is coming Nov. 29. If the Wolverines can somehow knock off No. 1 Ohio State for a fifth straight year, they would become an intriguing playoff possibility (pending whether they also advance to the Big Ten championship game, where they could earn an automatic berth). Wins the next two weeks at Northwestern and at Maryland would almost assuredly keep Michigan in the top 25, regardless of what happens against Ohio State. But another victory over the Buckeyes also would hand the Wolverines a compelling playoff résumé. — Trotter


Previous ranking: NR

The Panthers find themselves in a four-way tie atop the ACC standings following their idle week. They’ve won five in a row, are scoring 40 points per game and have the No. 11 passing offense in FBS since they turned to true freshman quarterback Mason Heintschel at the start of October. No ACC title contender has a tougher remaining schedule than the Panthers with Notre Dame, Georgia Tech and Miami up next, so the week off landed at an ideal moment for Pat Narduzzi’s squad. Their young QB will learn from his three red zone turnovers against Stanford last week and must play great situational football under pressure for his team to make a run to the ACC title game. — Olson


Previous ranking: 14

The overtime loss to Cal in Week 11 was a brutal blow for a Cardinals team that hasn’t lost a game by more than a touchdown in two years but looked entirely flat. With Isaac Brown out because of an injury, the ground game was less explosive, and Cal used the opportunity to turn up the pressure on quarterback Miller Moss, who struggled badly, completing just 20 of 38 throws with no touchdowns and a pick. Moss has now thrown an interception in five of his past six games, and it has been more than a month since he topped 250 yards passing. The Cardinals’ next two games — Friday vs. Clemson and Week 13 at SMU — are both potentially fraught matchups, and without a more balanced attack, a once-promising season could crumble quickly. — Hale


Previous ranking: 12

The Cavaliers have not been nearly as explosive on offense, nor dominant in the run game over the past five weeks, and that includes a 16-9 setback to Wake Forest in which quarterback Chandler Morris was knocked out of the game in the second quarter after taking a hard hit to the head. Virginia also turned the ball over three times — an area in which it had excelled and allowed it to win so many close games this season. Virginia has to find a way to get back to controlling the ball on offense, something we have seen in limited stretches since its big win over Florida State. Whether Morris will play next week against Duke is a big question. Daniel Kaelin had two of the turnovers, and threw incomplete passes in the end zone with a chance to win the game. If Morris does start Saturday, Virginia will have a full week to get him ready. — Adelson


Previous ranking: 23

Tennessee’s biggest area of focus is the same thing it has been for a while — defense. Pick your category: The Vols are 61st in yards allowed per play (5.39), 98th in yards allowed per game (395.9), 114th in scoring defense (31.1 points per game) and 120th in completion rate allowed. The fact they’re 6-3 with tight losses to two ranked teams tells you how explosive their offense can be, but with games remaining against ultra-efficient Vanderbilt and all-or-nothing Florida, they’ll have to make at least a few stops if they want to win out and create some late positivity from an up-and-down season. — Connelly


Previous ranking: 25

The Hawkeyes were seconds away from closing out a win that would have put them on the outer edges of the CFP radar. But they couldn’t finish off Oregon in a game in which they were outplayed in areas where they normally thrive. Iowa gave up its highest rushing total (261) since 2022 and its highest yards-per-rush against average since 2014. The Hawkeyes also made an uncharacteristic special teams error, as a bad snap led to a safety and the game’s first score. Iowa can’t afford slip-ups in its areas of strength, and must be sharper this week at USC and at Nebraska on Nov. 28. The Hawkeyes also must continue to grow their downfield passing attack, which flashed at times in the Oregon game, as quarterback Mark Gronowski had completions of 40 and 38 yards. — Rittenberg


Previous ranking: NR

The Mean Green defense has stepped up since a 63-36 loss to South Florida, holding each of its past three American Conference opponents to 20 points or fewer. First-year defensive coordinator Skyler Cassity has pulled off one of the more impressive turnarounds in FBS this season in building a top-10 pass defense in Denton. But North Texas’ No. 130-ranked run defense has been tested quite a bit in conference play and still has to face Rice’s gun option attack on Nov. 22. The offense of coach Eric Morris led by quarterback Drew Mestemaker will continue to command the headlines, but Cassity’s defense playing with consistency and getting stops in November will help determine if this team can get into the CFP. — Olson


Previous ranking: NR

With only one conference loss, Cincinnati remains in the mix in the Big 12, with three tough games remaining: Arizona (6-3), BYU (8-1) and TCU (6-3). After being blown out by Utah, it’s hard to see the Bearcats winning out to reach the Big 12 title game, but it’s well within the realm of possibility. Quarterback Brendan Sorsby is having one of the best seasons of any quarterback in college football and he’ll continue to help give his team a chance the rest of the way. — Bonagura

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