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“Introduce a little anarchy, upset the established order and everything becomes chaos. I’m an agent of chaos. Oh, and you know the thing about chaos? It’s fair.”

I’m not going to advocate for the Joker’s political ideologies from “The Dark Knight” — one of the best movies ever — but I am going to agree with how that quote can apply to the College Football Playoff. As an alum of a Division I-AA football school (shoutout to Villanova in the second round of the FCS playoffs this Saturday!) I don’t have a significant attachment to FBS teams. My best friend went to Alabama for law school, so I dabble in Crimson Tide fandom here and there. But I mostly root for chaos and upsets.

Which could make this the best conference championship week of college football in quite some time.

Excluding the 2020 COVID-19-shortened season, only seven 1-loss Power 5 teams have missed the CFP (less than one per year). With the right amount of chaos, we could have four of them this year alone. Sure, that would require Iowa Hawkeyes to beat Michigan Wolverines, Louisville Cardinals to beat Florida State Seminoles, Alabama to beat Georgia Bulldogs, Oregon Ducks to beat Washington Huskies and Texas Longhorns to beat Oklahoma State Cowboys. But it’s possible!

The betting public seems to be on the other side, expecting the status quo to continue. All 4 unbeaten teams were seeing the majority of tickets on the spread at ESPN BET as of Tuesday night.

The public seems to think chaos won’t happen at all. The above scenarios paint a picture where we have four unbeatens and ZERO 1-loss Power 5 teams. In that situation, even the infamously indecisive Chidi Anagonye from The Good Place could pick the playoff teams without any stress.

But we need to have some chaos right? These head coaches have to earn their paychecks somehow. As the Joker notes, “If you’re good at something, never do it for free.”

Trend or Trap

We probably won’t see Gotham descend into true chaos, but might there be a few upsets brewing? Here’s a quick look at some of the notable betting storylines in Power 5 championship games this weekend.

No. 5 Oregon (-9.5, 65.5) at No. 3 Washington
Friday, 8 p.m. ET, Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV

Oregon is a 9.5-point favorite over Washington despite losing their first meeting this season. It’s the first time since 2020 that a team has been at least a nine-point favorite in a same-season rematch after losing the first meeting. That year, Clemson won and covered an 11-point spread against Notre Dame in the ACC Championship Game.

This doesn’t bode well for the Huskies, who clung to victory in Seattle but were significantly outplayed in most of the ways that are predictive moving forward. Washington was outgained by 126 yards, had nine fewer minutes of possession, and blew an 11-point lead. The Ducks were 0-3 on fourth down, including multiple possessions inside the 10-yard line and a third opportunity to seal the victory with 2 minutes left. Even after all that, Oregon missed a 43-yard field goal that would have sent the game to OT.

Washington deserved the win, and Michael Penix Jr. had his shining moment, but they were not the better team in October, and they won’t be the better team in December. I can’t wait for this game, but I would lean towards Oregon if forced to make a pick here. The Ducks are 9-2 ATS as a favorite this season and 15-3-1 ATS vs Washington since 2004 (including covering two months ago as 3.5-point dogs).

Washington is the hero the College Football Playoff deserves, but not the one it needs right now.

No. 1 Georgia at No. 8 Alabama (-5.5, 54.5)
Saturday, 4 p.m. ET, Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA

This is the fourth time Alabama has been an underdog since 2010. All four of those games have been against Georgia.

The chart above paints a similar picture of Alabama as an underdog, occasionally sparking the upset and winning big, or losing by multiple scores.

Meanwhile, the Bulldogs are the Harvey Dent of college football. You either lose as an underdog, or you win so often that you see yourself become the villain. Georgia has lost just once in the last three calendar years, an SEC title game defeat to Alabama, which they avenged one month later.

Will the new Goliath fall? We’ll find out on Saturday afternoon.

The Bets

“Two-Face”: split bets on Georgia-Alabama

As I mentioned above, we’ve seen two versions of this Alabama team this season. We’ve also seen Georgia’s offense look unstoppable for much of the last month since Brock Bowers returned. There’s a reason the total opened at 49.5 and is now at 54.5 and pushing higher.

Ideally you could have gotten these bets in with more closing line value, but the concept is the same. I expect the over to hit, and I also expect Alabama to win outright, or Georgia to win in dominant fashion.

That means using Harvey Dent’s lucky coin and grabbing significant plus-money odds on two separate outcomes. On one side, give me Alabama ML (+180) and over 54.5 (-115) parlayed together. On the other side, I’ll take Georgia -11.5 (+175) and the over 54.5 (-115) in another parlay. Both would pay out over 4-to-1.

Place 0.5 units on each bet, so you have a full wager on the game, and if 1 of them hits, you’re still going to win more than double your money.

One last parting nugget of info: Alabama is 6-5 outright and 6-4-1 against the spread as an underdog under Nick Saban. Breaking that down, all six outright wins are also covers. Which means in all five Saban losses as an underdog, they failed to cover the spread, which gives me more confidence in the split bet above.

SMU +3.5 (-115), SMU ML (+150), SMU -6.5 alt line

Another different way to balance out your bets is to use a “ladder” when you think the projection or line is way off the market.

In this scenario, ESPN Analytics has SMU as an 8.3-point favorite against Tulane in the AAC title game, listing the Mustangs as the 20th best team and the Green Wave as the 50th best team according to FPI.

You could simply say “I’m very confident SMU covers here” and leave it at that. You could also say “SMU should win this game, so I’ll take the moneyline bet”. Or a riskier bettor could take the exact FPI projection and find an alternate line for SMU -8.5.

Laddering allows you to mitigate risk on an overall bet while banking in some extra upside for a line that has the potential for extreme outcomes. My suggestion for this bet would be a half-unit on SMU to cover +3.5, and a quarter-unit on each of the next two options listed above.

If SMU wins by a touchdown or more, all 3 bets pay out and you profit a lot more thanks to the risk you took. If SMU covers but doesn’t win, you end up about breakeven. But the reason for using less than full bets on each is that if SMU fails to cover the +3.5, you only lose one full unit rather than three all at once.

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Daytona 500 stopped by rain after just 11 laps

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Daytona 500 stopped by rain after just 11 laps

DAYTONA BEACH, Fla. — Rain has stopped the Daytona 500 on Sunday after 11 laps, not long after President Donald Trump in his heavily armored presidential limousine known in Washington as “The Beast” led the drivers on two laps around the track.

The caution flag came out with defending Daytona 500 champion William Byron out front.

Rain started falling in Turns 1 and 2, the West side of the 2½-mile Daytona International Speedway.

Trump spoke to the drivers as he led them through several ceremonial laps.

“This is your favorite president. I’m a big fan. I am a really big fan of you people,” Trump told the drivers. “How you do this I don’t know, but I just want you to be safe. You’re talented people and you’re great people and great Americans. Have a good day, have a lot of fun and I’ll see you later.”

Trump left the track during the rain delay and returned to Air Force One to head back to West Palm Beach, Florida, where he’s staying for the weekend.

Before it landed prior to the race, Air Force One buzzed the Daytona International Speedway. Trump traveled from West Palm Beach with several guests, including his son Eric.

NASCAR officials this week moved up the start time for Sunday’s race by 70 minutes because of potential rain. Inclement weather is expected to be in the area between 4 p.m. and 5 p.m. ET, with forecasts showing 99% chance of rain. And since it takes roughly two hours to dry the track, it could be 7 p.m. before the race resumes.

“Captain America” actor Anthony Mackie gave the command for drivers to start their engines.

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Irish jockey O’Sullivan, 24, dies after Thurles fall

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Irish jockey O'Sullivan, 24, dies after Thurles fall

Irish jockey Michael O’Sullivan died on Sunday, 10 days after sustaining injuries in a fall at Thurles Racecourse in Ireland, the Irish Horseracing Regulatory Board (IHRB) said.

O’Sullivan, aged 24, who has ridden 90 winners in Ireland and five in Britain, and his mount Wee Charlie were one of three fallers at the final fence in the second race on the Feb. 6 card.

O’Sullivan was treated on the course before being airlifted to hospital, where he was placed in intensive care.

“Michael sadly passed away in the early hours of Sunday morning surrounded by his loving family in Cork University Hospital,” Dr Jennifer Pugh, Chief Medical Officer of the IHRB, said in a statement.

His family took the decision to donate his organs, Pugh said.

“I have had the privilege of knowing Michael through his amateur and professional career and his dedication, modesty and kind nature always made him a pleasure to be around,” Pugh added.

“The O’Sullivan family have asked for privacy at this time.”

O’Sullivan turned professional in 2022 and he won the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle and the Fred Winter at Cheltenham the following year.

“Michael was an exceptionally talented young rider who was always popular in the weighroom and will be deeply missed by everyone in racing who had the pleasure of knowing him,” Darragh O’Loughlin, chief executive of the IHRB, said.

As a mark of respect, Sunday’s fixture at Punchestown and the point-to-point fixtures in Ireland have been cancelled.

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Granlund OT goal gives Finland 1st 4 Nations win

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Granlund OT goal gives Finland 1st 4 Nations win

MONTREAL — Mikael Granlund scored the overtime winner, and Finland beat Sweden 4-3 Saturday in an instant classic, back-and-forth game between the bitter rivals at the 4 Nations Face-Off.

Granlund scored 1:49 into 3-on-3 OT, sending fans in Finland’s blue and white at Bell Centre to the exits cheering and chanting, “Suomi!”

“It’s always great to beat Sweden,” Granlund said in his postgame media availability.

Anton Lundell and Mikko Rantanen also scored for Finland, and Kevin Lankinen made 21 saves in his debut at the NHL-run international tournament, including a pad stop on Mika Zibanejad seconds into overtime. Coach Antti Pennanen switched from Juuse Saros to Lankinen after his team lost 6-1 to the United States on Thursday night.

“I don’t think we needed to do much, we knew that there was a lot of good things we did in the game against USA,” Finland captain Aleksander Barkov said in his postgame interview on SportsNet. “Obviously, the result, 6-1, was not great, it did not look good. But I thought we did a lot of good things. And same thing today.”

Knocking off Sweden puts the Finns right back in it with one game for them left in round-robin play. The top two teams among the U.S., Canada, Sweden and Finland meet in the championship game next week in Boston.

Despite goals from Zibanejad and Rasmus Dahlin, the Swedes are in trouble and now might need some help to make the final. Filip Gustavsson was pulled after allowing two goals on four shots in the first period, and Linus Ullmark allowed two on 17 the rest of the way.

Finland also has a potential injury situation to monitor after Barkov came up limping from blocking a shot late in the second. The reigning Stanley Cup champion from the Florida Panthers continued playing through it.

“We got a little better, and played for a full 60-something minutes,” Barkov said. “We knew, playing against Sweden, even if it’s 4 a.m., it doesn’t matter. Everyone is going to be fired up. We came out hard, and we played really well.”

The U.S. faces Canada on Saturday night in the most anticipated game in Montreal, but Sweden and Finland put on quite the show in the matinee. Facing off 19 years after Sweden defeated Finland in the 2006 Olympic gold medal game in Turin, this time the Finns were on the winning end of an entertaining game featuring a blend of speed, skill and physicality — and some pushing and shoving after the whistles, which was expected of players from countries that do not like each other.

The tournament shifts to Boston, where Finland faces Canada on Monday afternoon at 1 p.m. ET and Sweden plays the United States at 8 p.m.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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