How Mariano Rivera, ‘Top Gun: Maverick,’ and Martha and the Vandellas explain Dan Lanning’s Oregon Ducks
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Paolo Uggetti, ESPN
“DO PEOPLE THINK Oregon and think tough?”
An animated Dan Lanning stands in the front of the Oregon team room asking his entire team the rhetorical question. It’s the eighth week of the season and a 7-1 Ducks team is headed to Salt Lake City where it’ll face a Utah team that’s won 30 straight games at home and whose “national narrative,” as Lanning puts it, is one of being tough to beat.
“What’s the narrative on us?” Lanning continues. “Flashy.”
Oregon, with its Nike partnership, history of teams with offensive firepower and equally bold uniforms, has come to represent a certain kind of football, a certain kind of program, over the years. Whether you want to define it as flashy or otherwise, it’s no secret that effective marketing combined with success has turned the Ducks into a national brand. What that brand is exactly depends on who you ask.
“People don’t think you’re tough?” Lanning asks.
All you have to do is watch Lanning speak — sometimes yell — to realize he cuts against that very grain. And all you have to do is watch Oregon these past two seasons to realize that very same approach Lanning embodies has permeated throughout the program.
“He’s developed a culture of toughness,” offensive coordinator Will Stein told ESPN. “I mean his program’s built on toughness, mental and physical.”
It’s not that Lanning eschews flash, confidence or even, at times, arrogance, in place for the traditional idea of a buttoned-up college coach. In fact, the 37-year-old appears to embrace those outward displays of emotion and pride more than most. Just take a look at the speech he gave (and presumably allowed to be aired) during the Ducks’ commanding win over Colorado, where he said Oregon was a team “rooted in substance, not flash.” Since then, Oregon has arguably showcased both while backing it up with results.
Or how he gives the outside world glimpses, even if curated, of his coaching style and approach through cinematic recaps Oregon’s video department releases following every game this season.
Lanning stepped into the job in December 2021 and proceeded to give Oregon a new identity as it heads to the Big Ten next season by utilizing an approach that has resonated throughout the program.
“He’s a players’ coach,” wide receiver Tez Johnson said, referring to Lanning’s ethos to give players a voice, even in-game decision-making. “He’s the best coach in the country and anybody can come and argue with it, but he’s the best.”
Lanning isn’t without his young coaching mistakes, but two seasons in, he has Oregon playing like one of the best teams in the country, is a win over Washington away from a Pac-12 title and has a likely shot at the College Football Playoff.
“He’s got a relentless consistency,” quarterback Bo Nix said of Lanning. “I don’t think he has ever had a day where he’s been complacent.”
MARIANO RIVERA. “Top Gun: Maverick.” Martha and the Vandellas.
What do those three things have in common?
The answer is nothing. But somehow, all three have found their way into being a part of Oregon’s season thanks to Lanning.
Lanning, his players and fellow coaches say, is someone who lives and breathes football, while also constantly wanting to tether parts of the game to his real-life interests. A movie and music buff, it’s no surprise some of those pop cultural references make their way into team meetings and motivational material.
As their final regular-season cinematic recap showed last week, the theme was putting an emphasis on closing out games and seasons — something the Ducks did not do last season in Lanning’s first year.
It hasn’t been all sunshine and roses in Eugene for Lanning. His first game in Oregon colors was a 49-3 blowout at the hands of his former team. Later on that season, he found himself having to answer questions about his late-game management and decision-making multiple times, especially after a 3-point loss to Washington and a fourth-quarter letdown to their rival, Oregon State.
This year, there’s been a clear evolution despite some remaining growing pains. After a failed attempt at a fourth-and-3 near midfield with two minutes left against Washington, Oregon, which was up by 4 points at the time, eventually lost by 3, and Lanning took the blame.
“This game’s 100% on me,” Lanning said. “I don’t think you guys have to look anywhere else but me.”
Still, Lanning has done his best to use any failures to his team’s advantage and is likely going to do so again ahead of a rematch with the Huskies. In the lead-up to its rivalry game against the Beavers this season, the TVs around the team’s practice facility played last year’s fourth quarter against OSU — where Oregon allowed 21 points to cough up an 18-point lead — on a loop. In the eventual recap of the week on YouTube, shots showed images of billboards Oregon State had put up all season declaring it “Won in the Trenches” — images that were then printed out by Oregon and taped all over the team’s facility.
“They don’t have respect for you,” Lanning said. “We played three quarters last year. It’s time to play four quarters.”
Closing, then, was what Lanning wanted to harp on. So, of course, he brought up Rivera. He explained his prolific ability to deliver in high-stakes situations and secure wins late in games. That was his job; now it was Oregon’s job to ensure it wouldn’t repeat last year’s letdown to Oregon State and close out its season with a win.
But the comparison didn’t stop there. Lanning showed a video of Rivera walking out to “Enter Sandman” — the longtime Yankees closer’s patented walkout song — and said the Ducks would have their own closer’s song too: “Nowhere to Run” by Martha and the Vandellas.
“‘Nowhere to run, nowhere to hide,'” Lanning said. “In the fourth quarter, when you hear this, you’ll know what time it is,”
Sure enough, with Oregon up 24-7 on OSU last Friday night heading into the fourth quarter and on its way to a 31-7 win, the Autzen Stadium speakers began to blare a now-familiar tune.
Nowhere to run to, baby (nowhere to run, nowhere to hide)
Nowhere to hide (ooh-ooh-ooh)
Got nowhere to run to, baby (nowhere to run, nowhere to hide)
Nowhere to hide (ooh-ooh-ooh)
Somehow, through pop-culture references and his own version of coach-speak, Lanning comes off less like the older guy trying to remain cool and more like the younger coach who believes being the most authentic version of himself will make him the best possible leader.
“He’s still got that young personality and still enjoys other things outside of football,” Nix said. “I think sometimes we see head coaches as strictly football, but he’s still a young coach in this profession and he still enjoys other things outside of football and X’s O’s. He’s knowledgeable about a bunch of things that us players are knowledgeable about, so he can kind of connect with us that way.”
Take the unofficial slogan of this Ducks team, for example, which has made its way onto T-shirts that Lanning has worn multiple times.
“FEBU”
There’s some debate among Oregon fans as to what the “F” exactly stands for, but the rest stands for “Everybody But Us.” You can connect the dots.
STEIN’S NEWBORN SON was not yet a full month old when the former co-offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach at UTSA, got a call from Lanning.
“Do you want to be a Duck?”
Stein didn’t think twice. This was an opportunity he didn’t want to pass up.
Once Stein arrived in Eugene, it didn’t take long for him to see what kind of program Lanning was building. The word that came to mind, one that Lanning and Oregon players mention repeatedly when asked what has made this team succeed, is “connected.”
“I’ve never seen a more connected team,” Lanning said after the win over Oregon State. “I’ve never been around a team that is anxious to grow and learn even from wins. Talk about being a tough team and there are moments last year when I felt like these guys needed to bang at practice and we probably weren’t as excited to bang at practice. Now I put them in spiders one day and they ask why we aren’t in shoulder pads, and I think that speaks to their toughness.”
And whether it’s through his motivational speeches or how he’s established a curriculum of offseason “get real” sessions that push players to discuss topics and goals outside of football, everyone from Nix to Stein to wide receiver Troy Franklin credit Lanning for establishing said connection.
“Dan’s an innovator,” Stein said. “He’s got a lot of swag and a lot of confidence and it’s due to his preparation.”
Lanning’s self-assuredness has always been part of his coaching journey. His own backstory includes a 13-hour drive from Missouri, where he was a high school special teams/defensive backs/wide receivers coach, to Pittsburgh just to create an opportunity for himself. He had heard about a potential opening at Pitt and, though he hadn’t heard back despite sending countless emails to the staff, Lanning decided to make sure he had every chance to secure what was eventually a defensive quality control position by going the extra mile. Or the extra 710 miles.
Since then, Lanning has held every position from graduate assistant to recruiting coordinator to defensive backs coach, linebackers coach and defensive coordinator at Power 5 programs like Alabama, Georgia, Memphis and Arizona State. It’s all prepared him for the job he’s doing now, which Stein aptly describes as the CEO of the program.
“The way that he oversees the entire program and that he has his hands on everything when it comes to facilities, when it comes to NIL, when it comes to offense, defense, special teams, I mean, he’s involved in every little detail,” Stein said. “But he also empowers all of us coaches to be innovative and to step outside the box and to keep growing and he encourages that, so he’s been really easy to work for.”
It goes beyond bulletin board material or catchy slogans. Lanning’s approach runs throughout his staff, which leans heavily on younger individuals, too. Both of Lanning’s top assistants are in their 30s and no coach on staff is older than 50.
Perhaps it’s his age, or his experience having had many jobs in the sport, but Lanning appears to be keenly aware of where, when and how he needs help as a head coach. Coming from Georgia, where his focus was defense, there were questions about how the Ducks’ offense would take shape under his tenure. In the Pac-12, with its talented quarterbacks and high-scoring offenses, a strong offensive system and a prolific quarterback are prerequisites to succeed. So, Lanning first brought then-Florida State offensive coordinator Kenny Dillingham and his former quarterback at Auburn Nix on board. Under Lanning, the two reignited Nix’s career, then Stein continued the work once Dillingham left to be the head coach at Arizona State. The Oregon offense hasn’t missed a beat; it’s the top-ranked unit in the nation.
For as much as Oregon’s brand has been about offense in the past, it has not been a one-dimensional team. In fact, according to ESPN’s SP+ rankings, only Georgia, Michigan and Florida State have a combined offense-defense ranking that’s better than the Ducks.
Yet despite the dominant wins as of late and the impressive numbers across the board, Washington still looms. Lanning is 0-2 against the Huskies so far, with both results separated by only a field goal. One more loss and it’ll start to feel like Kalen DeBoer’s team is the first-time head coach’s kryptonite. And, as Stein and Nix will emphasize, Lanning hates losing.
“He’s one of the more competitive human beings I’ve ever been around in my entire life,” Stein said. “I’ve golfed with Dan multiple times. He might not be the best, but he wants to win. You play cornhole with him, shoot basketball, whatever it is. He’s a guy that wants to win.”
Whether or not Oregon overcomes its Washington hump and advances into the College Football Playoff, Lanning is determined to continue building — using everything in his power to combine toughness with plenty of flash and confidence, as Oregon transitions to the Big Ten not wanting to give up any of its success and momentum in the process.
But for now, the future can wait. Said Lanning last Friday, “We still have some unfinished business.”
The College Football Playoff selection committee will reveal its first ranking at 8 p.m. ET on Tuesday on ESPN, giving us our first look at what the 12-member group thinks about the playoff pecking order after 10 weeks.
It’s far from over, as teams still have ample opportunities to build — or bust — their résumés.
Separation, though, is starting to occur, and the Bubble Watch is tracking it for you. Teams with Would be in status below are featured in this week’s top 12 projection, a snapshot of what the selection committee’s ranking will look like when it’s released later Tuesday. For each Power 4 conference, we’ve listed teams as Last team in and First team out. These are the true bubble teams hovering around inclusion. Teams labeled Still in the mix haven’t been eliminated, but have work to do. A team that is Out will have to wait until next year.
The 12-member selection committee doesn’t always agree with the Allstate Playoff Predictor, so the following categories are based on historical knowledge of the group’s tendencies, plus what each team has done to date.
The conferences below are listed in order of the number of bids they’re expected to receive, ranked from the most to least. Check back Tuesday night after the rankings reveal show for an updated bubble watch that will reflect the selection committee’s latest ranking.
Jump to a conference:
ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten
SEC | Independent | Group of 5
Bracket
SEC
Would be in: Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss, Texas A&M
Last team in: Ole Miss. The Rebels are in a safe spot, but they’re not a lock if they don’t run the table. With remaining games against The Citadel, Florida and at rival Mississippi State, there’s no possibility of a “good loss” remaining, and historically, losing in November has been far more damaging to playoff hopes than losing earlier in the season. Ole Miss shouldn’t lose; it has at least a 72% chance of winning each of its remaining games and has the seventh-best chance in the country (43%) to win out. If an upset occurred, though, the Rebels would join the two-loss club and might not win a debate with other two-loss teams that had more statement wins — and didn’t lose to an unranked opponent. The Rebels’ remaining schedule strength is No. 56 in the country. With a second loss, Ole Miss would be banking on wins against Oklahoma, Tulane and LSU to impress the committee enough for an at-large bid.
First team out: Texas. The Longhorns got a significant boost this week in part because three teams above them fell out — Vanderbilt, Georgia Tech and Miami — but also because they earned another CFP top 25 win against the Commodores. The head-to-head win against Oklahoma also could help them with the committee. If Texas is ranked No. 11 or No. 12 by the committee, though — and the ACC and Group of 5 champions are outside of the committee’s top 12 — the Longhorns would be elbowed out during the seeding process to make room for the fourth- and fifth-highest ranked conference champions, which are guaranteed spots in the playoff.
Still in the mix: Missouri, Oklahoma, Vanderbilt. The Sooners earned a huge résumé boost with their win at Tennessee and have what should be a CFP top 25 win against Michigan. For two-loss Vandy, a close road loss to Texas isn’t an eliminator. Where the committee ranks Tennessee after its third loss will impact both of their résumés as a common opponent. Missouri’s lone losses were to Alabama and Vanderbilt, but the Tigers don’t have anything yet to compensate for those. That could change Saturday with a win against Texas A&M.
Out: Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, South Carolina, Tennessee
Big Ten
Would be in: Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon
Last team in: Oregon. The one-loss Ducks have a more challenging second half of the season, and the committee is about to learn how good this team truly is. So far, Oregon’s best win was Sept. 13 at Northwestern. The Ducks have been passing the eye test, but their opponents have a winning percentage of 47.2% — ranked No. 116 in the country. The committee will still respect the double-overtime win at Penn State, but also recognize that the Nittany Lions weren’t playing at an elite level even with James Franklin on the sideline. With road trips to Iowa and Washington — both respectable two-loss teams — and a Nov. 22 home game against USC, Oregon has a chance to further entrench itself in the top 12 or tumble out.
First team out: USC. The Trojans’ two losses were on the road to respectable teams (Illinois and Notre Dame) by a combined 12 points. Their best win was Oct. 11 against Michigan, but the Trojans could really boost their résumé this month and completely flip the script with Oregon if they can win in Eugene on Nov. 22. According to ESPN Analytics, USC has the fourth-best chance in the Big Ten to reach the playoff (17.3%), just ahead of Michigan. The only game they’re not favored to win is Nov. 22 at Oregon. If they can pull off that upset for a 10-2 finish, the committee would definitely consider the Trojans for an at-large spot.
Still in the mix: Iowa, Michigan, Washington. These teams could be ranked by the committee Tuesday night, but Michigan will probably have the shortest climb into the conversation. The head-to-head loss to USC will be a problem in both the Big Ten standings and the CFP ranking, but if USC loses again and their records are no longer comparable, it can be overcome. Then, there’s a head-to-head loss to Oklahoma. Still, Michigan has a 13.2% chance to reach the playoff, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor. The Wolverines still have a chance to beat Ohio State and earn one of the best wins in the country en route to a 10-2 finish.
Out: Illinois, Maryland, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, Wisconsin
Big 12
Would be in: BYU, Texas Tech
Last team in: Texas Tech. If Texas Tech loses to BYU on Saturday but still wins the Big 12, it’s a CFP lock. The problem is that if the Red Raiders lose a second conference game, they will need some help to reach the Big 12 championship. So, a loss to BYU could be devastating to their conference and CFP hopes. If the Red Raiders beat BYU on Saturday, but lose to the Cougars in the Big 12 championship game, Texas Tech would still have a chance at an at-large bid as the Big 12 runner-up. The Red Raiders would be able to claim a win over the eventual Big 12 champs, which would be a much-needed boost to their résumé. It would depend in part on how the game unfolded. The Cougars are the Red Raiders’ only remaining opponent with a winning record, as Texas Tech ends the season against UCF (4-4) and at West Virginia (3-6).
First team out: Utah. The Utes are in a tricky spot because their two losses are to the Big 12’s best teams — BYU and Texas Tech. Utah still has the third-best chance to reach the Big 12 title game (22.8%), but will need some help to get there. Utah’s best wins are against Arizona State and Cincinnati, but the Utes have a hard time earning an at-large bid without beating at least one of the best teams in their league.
Still in the mix: Cincinnati. The Bearcats are included here because they still have an 18% chance to reach the Big 12 title game, according to ESPN Analytics. They have only one league loss, which gives them some slim hope. Their other loss was in the season opener to Nebraska.
Out: Arizona, Arizona State, Baylor, Colorado, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, TCU, UCF, West Virginia
ACC
Would be in: Virginia
Last team in: Virginia. Like Georgia Tech, Virginia also has a road loss to NC State as its lone blemish, but it was an early four-point loss, while the Yellow Jackets lost to the Wolfpack by double digits. Virginia also has a head-to-head win against Louisville. That’s the Hoos’ best win of the season, and likely their only one against a CFP top 25 opponent. That’s why it’s unlikely Virginia is ranked in the top 12 in the initial CFP top 25. Virginia would still be in, though, if it wins the ACC even if it’s ranked outside the committee’s top 12 — just like three-loss Clemson was last year.
First team out: Louisville. The Cardinals lost at home in overtime to Virginia on Oct. 4, but earned a statement win Oct. 17 at Miami. Louisville will probably have only one win this season against a CFP top 25 team, which will make earning an at-large bid difficult. Louisville’s best shot would be to run the table, have teams above the Cardinals lose, and win the ACC. Louisville has a 10.6% chance of winning the ACC, fourth best behind Georgia Tech, Miami and Virginia.
Still in the mix: Georgia Tech, Miami. The odds of earning an at-large bid dropped significantly, but any team that has a chance to win its league will have a chance to lock up a playoff spot, and they’re both in contention to play for the ACC title. Georgia Tech has the best chance to reach the ACC championship game (72.3%), followed by Virginia (51.1%) and Miami (28.5%), according to ESPN Analytics. Georgia Tech still has the highest chance to win out (40.5%) and win the league (41.2%).
Out: Boston College, Cal, Clemson, Duke, Florida State, North Carolina, NC State, Pitt, SMU, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Independent
Would be in: Notre Dame. The playoff stars aligned for Notre Dame in Week 10, when Vanderbilt, Georgia Tech and Miami all lost, opening the door for the 6-2 Irish to move back into the top 10 after beating Boston College. The question is whether the selection committee will honor Miami’s season-opening 27-24 win against Notre Dame because they have the same record. It’s one of several tiebreakers, but not weighted, and if the committee deems the Irish the better team and not comparable now, Notre Dame can be ranked higher. Notre Dame has the best chance of any team in the country to run the table (68.3%), but the Nov. 15 trip to Pitt will be difficult. The Panthers, winners of five straight, are playing well and have a bye week to prepare for the Irish. The Irish’s playoff position will remain tenuous until the clock runs out at Stanford and they’re 10-2.
Group of 5
Would be in: Memphis. As the projected winner of the American this week, Memphis would earn a playoff spot as the committee’s fifth-highest-ranked conference champion. The Tigers’ Oct. 25 win against South Florida was critical in the league race, but the loss to 3-5 UAB is an ink stain on their résumé that can be overcome with a conference title. Memphis has at least a 57% chance to win each of its remaining games, according to ESPN Analytics.
Still in the mix: South Florida, North Texas, James Madison, San Diego State. The committee would consider South Florida’s head-to-head wins against Boise State and North Texas.
Bracket
Based on our weekly projection, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Indiana
No. 3 Alabama (SEC champ)
No. 4 Texas A&M
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 Memphis (American champ) at No. 5 Georgia
No. 11 Virginia (ACC champ) at No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 Notre Dame at No. 7 BYU (Big 12 champ)
No. 9 Texas Tech at No. 8 Oregon
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 Memphis/No. 5 Georgia winner vs. No. 4 Texas A&M
No. 11 Virginia/No. 6 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 3 Alabama
No. 10 Notre Dame/No. 7 BYU winner vs. No. 2 Indiana
No. 9 Texas Tech/No. 8 Oregon winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State
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