Blueprint for another Colorado overhaul: Fix a broken line, save the 2024 recruiting class
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Adam Rittenberg
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Adam Rittenberg
ESPN Senior Writer
- College football reporter.
- Joined ESPN.com in 2008.
- Graduate of Northwestern University.
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Tom VanHaaren
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Tom VanHaaren
ESPN Staff Writer
- ESPN staff writer
- Joined ESPN in 2011
- Graduated from Central Michigan
Rapper Master P, wearing sunglasses and a Colorado hoodie under his sport jacket, posed for pictures. Terrell Davis, the former Super Bowl MVP running back for the Denver Broncos, milled around with other notable ex-athletes.
Colorado coach Deion Sanders, the man responsible for all the Buffaloes buzz, took his pregame lap around the field, flanked by police, private security and his son Deion Jr., who was pointing a camera toward his father to capture footage of Year 1 under Coach Prime.
The scene on Colorado’s sideline before a Nov. 4 game with Oregon State featured some of the same elements of earlier contests at Folsom Field — celebrities, cameras and a palpable excitement — but the overall mood had changed.
Colorado had started 3-0 and had captivated the college football world, but its fortunes had turned since then. The team had lost four of five. Sanders had switched offensive playcallers, a decision that shocked many coaches who respected CU offensive coordinator Sean Lewis. The team’s personnel warts, masked by outstanding individual efforts and, as it turned out, an opening schedule featuring average opponents, were laid bare.
Colorado would lose to Oregon State 26-19, a game blighted by poor offensive line play and odd coaching decisions. Star quarterback Shedeur Sanders left the field with a towel over his head. The Buffaloes, who had been college football’s team of September, went on to go 0-for-November, completing Sanders’ first season at 4-8.
On Dec. 3, 2022, Colorado hired Sanders because the team had bottomed out, finishing 1-11. Sanders engineered a historic roster overhaul, as Colorado stretched the limits of the transfer portal. The team added an FBS-high 86 new players, while returning an FBS-low three starters. Sanders’ first season brought unparalleled attention to Colorado and undeniable improvement on the field, but also exposed deficiencies that must be fixed for the Buffs to become a true contender. Almost exactly a year later, Colorado has reached another junction.
“We comin,'” Sanders repeated throughout his first year in Boulder, a phrase now displayed on Colorado T-shirts and hoodies, and a rallying cry for Buffaloes fans.
But where is Colorado going? A vital offseason looms, perhaps just as important as the first one under Sanders. The Buffs must fortify their weaknesses, make several coaching staff hires, replenish a recruiting class that has taken hits and prepare to join a new league (the Big 12).
After talking to sources at Colorado and around the Pac-12, here’s a look at four priorities for Sanders and the Buffs as they look ahead.
Jump to:
Better in the trenches
Save ’24 recruiting class
Big 12 transition
Build off momentum
Improve offensive line, get stronger in trenches
When Colorado’s whirlwind winter and spring in the transfer portal subsided, the team produced a roster with clear upgrades at spots such as quarterback, wide receiver and cornerback, but also a potential albatross position: offensive line. Most of Colorado’s portal exits could be viewed as addition by subtraction, but losing several veteran offensive linemen — Austin Johnson (Purdue), Casey Roddick (Florida State), Jake Wiley (UCLA) — proved difficult to overcome. Roddick would earn honorable mention All-ACC honors with the Seminoles.
The Buffs returned two starters in tackle Gerad Christian-Lichtenhan and center Van Wells, as well as transfers with experience such as Savion Washington and Jack Bailey from Kent State. But overall, the incoming offensive linemen weren’t as gifted as other positions. CU had concerns about the line entering the season, and even amid a 4-1 start, the Buffs allowed 31 sacks and 52 tackles for loss.
The problem never went away: Colorado allowed three or more sacks in each of its first 11 games and six or more tackles for loss in nine contests. Shedeur Sanders was sacked an FBS-high 52 times, despite missing the season finale at Utah because of a fracture in his back, according to a video posted by Deion Sanders Jr.
An offensive line fix is different and more difficult than at other positions. Both Christian-Lichtenhan and Wells recently entered the portal. Depth will need to be built through development of current players, some of whom didn’t see the field much this season.
“Are they going to just try to go portal again?” a Pac-12 coach said. “If you try to go portal for the O-line, you’re making a huge mistake, because I don’t think there are any portal O-linemen. There are a few, but the ones that are out there, they want a lot of money. They want to get overpaid.”
Although Deion Sanders is planning another roster reshape for 2024, he also said, “We’re not an ATM.”
“At some point, you have to develop, teach and develop,” a Pac-12 defensive coordinator said. “There’s some good high school offensive linemen out there, but it’s a rarity that you find true freshman to start on the O-line. It’s such a learning curve, and their bodies have got to get where they need to be.”
Colorado suffered a blow in recruiting when Talan Chandler, its only committed offensive line prospect, flipped to Missouri on Nov. 19. Chandler had been committed to Colorado since February, and was initially drawn to Sanders and the excitement around the program. He stayed committed to the Buffs until he was offered by Missouri, his home state school.
“My flip is definitely more about Mizzou. I mean, Mizzou is my dream school,” Chandler said. “Just being able to stay close to home; it’s three hours from where I live, and all my family can go to games.”
Shedeur Sanders, who has not declared whether he will return next season, will need much better protection in 2024 to avoid injury and maintain his production. Colorado also likely will seek greater balance on offense. The Buffs ranked last nationally in rushing yards per game — 68.9, 7.2 yards less than any other FBS team — but also 119th in rushing attempts (345).
Colorado also had some challenges on the defensive line. The Buffs rank 106th nationally in rushing yards allowed per game (176.4), and allowed more than 200 rushing yards in half of their games.
“The game is won in the trenches, on both sides,” a Colorado source said. “We just didn’t have enough gas in the tank to finish, particularly with the big people.”
Salvage ’24 recruiting class
Colorado’s recruiting class was always going to be smaller, because of the volume the staff brought in through the transfer portal in the previous offseason. The coaches have to balance their total scholarship numbers and stay under the total limit of 85.
Entering Thursday, the Buffs only had eight high school commitments in their 2024 recruiting class, tied for the fewest among all Power 5 teams with Michigan State, Houston and Boston College. Colorado sits outside of ESPN’s list of the top 50 recruiting classes, compared to the 2023 class when Sanders and his staff signed the No. 23 overall class.
To be fair, Sanders has delivered some late recruiting heroics before. He flipped five-star Travis Hunter from Florida State to Jackson State in the 2022 class and then flipped five-star corner Cormani McClain from Miami to Colorado in January. And on Thursday morning, Colorado received a commitment from ESPN 300 lineman Jordan Seaton, the No. 19 overall recruit.
It’s unclear if Sanders has a card up his sleeve this time, but at the moment, he has seen more recruits leave than join his 2024 class. Colorado added a big commitment from ESPN 300 athlete Kamron Mikell in November.
“First time I met him was [on a visit] and it was like [meeting a celebrity and a coach],” Mikell told ESPN in September. “I think recruits are drawn to that; people see him as somebody who turns us kids into believers. He makes everyone believe in themselves. In college there are a lot of confidence boosters and drainers and he tries to be that booster.”
Who Sanders is and what he brings will be appealing to some recruits, but as Colorado faltered, confidence from some recruits began to waver.
Colorado lost a commitment from Danny O’Neil, the lone quarterback in the class. O’Neil had developed a strong relationship with Lewis during his process.
After Lewis lost playcalling duties just before the Oregon State game, O’Neil sensed Lewis was likely on the way out. Last week, San Diego State hired Lewis as its new head coach. Lewis almost immediately offered O’Neil a scholarship.
“Coach Lewis was the main reason I chose Colorado, so knowing he wasn’t going to be there made me take a step back and make sure that it still checked all the boxes for me and my family,” O’Neil told ESPN. The staff also lost a commitment from 2025 ESPN Junior 300 quarterback Antwann Hill, who decommitted a day before O’Neil decommitted. Hill had planned to reclassify to the 2024 class and enroll early, but decided to stay in the 2025 class and back off of his commitment.
Colorado’s recent coaching changes could further impact recruiting. In addition to Lewis leaving, tight ends coach Tim Brewster, who shifted into an analyst role when analyst Pat Shurmur became the playcaller, resigned to become tight ends coach at Charlotte. Defensive ends coach Nick Williams left the program last weekend. Lewis is hiring Colorado offensive line coach Bill O’Boyle, who had come with Lewis to CU from Kent State, and Darian Hagan, a longtime Colorado assistant and former national championship-winning quarterback, who moved into a support staff role under Sanders. Hagan will coach San Diego State’s running backs.
“Tim Brewster was one of their best recruiters, [Lewis] was one of their best recruiters, they got rid of him,” a Pac-12 coach said. “I don’t know what that’s going to look like.”
It’s not all gloomy for Colorado, though. The Buffs are hiring Oklahoma analyst Phil Loadholt to be their offensive line coach, and they got the commitment from Seaton. There are several other highly regarded 2024 recruits still available. The staff is in the mix for ESPN 300 defensive end King Joseph Edwards out of Georgia, the No. 275 prospect overall. Colorado is also pursuing ESPN 300 safety Dre’lon Miller, the No. 85 recruit.
“This is where the scouting department, where they start doing their thing,” Sanders said after a season-ending loss to Utah. “Everything you see that we have a lack thereof, a deficit, we’re going to fill that need. … We’re getting ready to start cooking. We’re getting ready to go pick up that grocery.”
Just two weeks until the early signing period, Colorado is again using the transfer portal to add talent to the roster, and Sanders is ready. The offensive line is the big focus, but there are needs across the board. While the portal is a useful tool to manage rosters, eventually Sanders and his staff must build more momentum on the recruiting trail to start growing the foundation of the program.
“The hard part is you can’t turn over that roster again,” a Pac-12 coordinator said. “Half the guys you brought in were transfers, and [the majority] can’t transfer anywhere.”
Prepare for Big 12 transition
On Sept. 2, Sanders made his Colorado coaching debut in a Big 12 stadium, stunning defending national runner-up TCU 45-42. In 2024, Colorado will return to the Big 12, where it was a charter member, and where it remained until joining the Pac-12 after the 2010 season.
In July, Colorado became the first of four Pac-12 schools to depart for the Big 12. Sanders, who had lived primarily in Texas and raised his family there until becoming a college coach, was among the key stakeholders supporting and driving the move. After the season finale, Sanders said he was “tremendously happy” to be making the move to the Big 12.
Conference changes are often rocky, even for programs going through much less transition than Colorado has under Sanders. The four new additions to the Big 12 in the 2023 season — BYU, Cincinnati, UCF and Houston — combined to go 8-28 in conference play. A Colorado source described the team’s 2024 schedule as “extremely competitive,” although a Pac-12 coach at another transitioning school said the move to the Big 12 shouldn’t be as extreme as the one to the Big Ten for departing league members USC, UCLA, Oregon and Washington.
The Buffs won’t be sneaking up on any of their future Big 12 opponents.
“What a lot of people missed with Colorado is they thought they beat last year’s TCU team,” said a coach who faced Colorado. “They were like, ‘That was the national championship runner-up,’ and it really wasn’t. Everyone kept trying to come up with different ways to justify who [Colorado was], and no one wanted to say they’re just average.”
There should be down-the-road benefits for Colorado in the Big 12, including the ability to play games consistently in Texas and even occasionally in Florida, where Deion Sanders is from. Colorado’s top two recruits in Sanders’ first class — McClain, from Lakeland, Florida, and running back Dylan Edwards, from Derby, Kansas — hail from states in the Big 12’s footprint.
“It’s a more conducive time zone for us,” a team source said. “That fits us. And from a staff standpoint, we’re going to areas that we’re more familiar with. We’re very excited about it.”
The conference shift also provides an opportunity for Colorado to further define its identity.
Colorado’s first staff under Sanders had a mix of coaches he brought from Jackson State and others, like Lewis and O’Boyle, who had no connection to him before coming to Boulder. As a source close to Sanders said of the coaching staff, “Very rarely do you get it 100 percent right the first time around.”
Sanders’ network throughout the football world, not just the college scene, broadens coaching candidates. Shurmur, a longtime NFL coach, is set to remain Colorado’s offensive coordinator, and Sanders after the Utah game praised his performance and how he had communicated with Shedeur Sanders since taking over playcalling.
But there will be some new faces on staff. Last month Sanders said Warren Sapp, the Hall of Fame defensive lineman, will come aboard in 2024.
“He’s going to be invaluable to what he brings to the table,” Sanders said of Sapp on his radio show. “The [players] are going to love him. … The recruits as well.”
Sanders and those in and around Colorado often point to their approach as pioneering and distinct, the type that makes people uncomfortable. The Buffs are entering a new league, but they also can figure out how to set themselves apart.
“It just feels like they’re still trying to find their way,” a Pac-12 coach said. “Like, who are they? Who do they want to be?”
Build off momentum
Colorado’s season ended on a down note, but the team clearly had its bright spots, on and off the field, which can be accentuated.
“They’ve got a chance to be really good,” a Pac-12 coordinator said. “It seems like there’s turmoil over there, but I think Prime actually does a really good job. Their skill players, they’re as good as damn near anyone we’ve played. They’ll be fine.”
Shedeur Sanders had a record-setting debut season at Colorado and ranked 19th nationally in passing yards (3,230) and tied for 12th in passing touchdowns (27), despite missing the last game. He will be one of the nation’s top quarterbacks in 2024.
Colorado also excelled at wide receiver, as Xavier Weaver, Jimmy Horn Jr. and Travis Hunter — the remarkable two-way star who this week won the Paul Hornung Award, given to the nation’s most versatile player — all had at least 57 receptions. Horn and Hunter are eligible to return, although tight end Michael Harrison (31 receptions, 5 touchdowns) entered the portal earlier this week.
Hunter, despite missing three games because of a lacerated liver, led the team in pass breakups (5) and tied for the team lead in interceptions (3) as a cornerback. Safety Shilo Sanders, Deion’s son and Shedeur’s brother, is eligible to return after leading Colorado in tackles (70) and forced fumbles (4). Other productive defenders such as LaVonta Bentley, Trevor Woods and Cam’Ron Silmon-Craig are eligible to return in 2024.
“Real football enthusiasts, football people know what we are doing here,” Deion Sanders said last month. “A lot of people think we’re just losing, but you have to find a win in the midst of a loss. Football people understand what time it is without looking at their watches.”
Sanders repeatedly praised his team’s resilience in games, even ones in which it fell short. Colorado was outscored in each of the first three quarters this season, but held a 116-85 edge in the fourth. The Buffs rallied in losses to USC and Oregon State, although they also squandered a 29-0 halftime advantage against Stanford, and blew four leads in a three-point loss to Arizona.
Other than lopsided road defeats to Oregon and Washington State, the Buffaloes battled, which Sanders acknowledged after the finale at Utah.
“You have nothing to hang your head down with,” Sanders told the team, in a video posted by Well Off Media. “One thing about the Boulder faithful, you gave them all hope, and they cannot wait until tomorrow and the next day and the next day, to see what we build. I’m proud of y’all.”
The spotlight will remain on Boulder. Sanders appeared on ABC’s “Good Morning America” earlier this week to discuss the new season of “Coach Prime,” which will air on Prime Video. KFC is still airing commercials featuring Deion Sanders with his children. Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter will enter 2023 as two of college football’s most recognizable players.
Colorado sold out all of its home games for the first time in school history and likely will remain one of the hottest tickets — and top ratings-grabber on TV — in 2024.
“Our head coach is maybe the greatest marketer in this industry, as an individual,” Alec Roussos, Colorado’s associate director for administration and chief of staff, told ESPN in October. “So for us, it’s how do we align our marketing efforts, so when [Sanders’] brand raises, the University of Colorado’s brand also raises. You can never rest on your laurels.”
Sanders brings eyeballs to Boulder, but he’s not there just to help merch sales and ticket revenue. After the Utah game, Sanders said he could “see around the corner,” and could sense the team’s progress but also that more was needed to take the next step.
“I could not prosper if I didn’t glean from what transpired this season,” Sanders said. “I could not be who I am if I didn’t have these tasks at hand. I’m truly thankful. This is not the first challenge I’ve had in my life, but I know how I finish.
“I know how this is gonna end.”
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Pete Thamel, ESPN
NEW ORLEANS — Considering that half-century in the college football netherworld, Tulane is amid what can only be considered a football renaissance. Spearheaded by former coach Willie Fritz and perpetuated by first-year coach Jon Sumrall, Tulane has won the American Athletic Conference (2022), beaten USC in the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic and is ranked No. 25 in the College Football Playoff rankings.
Few could have projected Tulane’s place in the national conversation before the recent surge, as Tulane (8-2) looms as an improbable contender — along with No. 13 Boise State and No. 24 Army — for the CFP bid that goes to the fifth-highest-ranked conference champion.
“They were a beached whale for a lot of years and decades,” former Tulane athletic director Kevin White told ESPN. “The schizophrenia from the campus community was real, relative to college athletics. You’d put on a helmet and shoulder pads when you went to the board meetings.”
These days, the helmets and shoulder pads are saved for the games.
And Tulane has a coach in Sumrall, 42, who is considered to be one the most promising in the sport and embodies the institution’s grander ambitions that come with the taste of success.
And that puts Tulane in a compelling place as a university, as it’s seeing the benefits of recent football relevance and pondering the investments required to stay in the mix and, someday, position itself for a power conference.
“To be able to sustain success is really rewarding, I think, for everybody involved,” Sumrall said in his office last week. “Our players, our staff and the university as a whole, the challenges that come with mid-major football Group of 5 football if you will. Anytime right now you feel like a coach leaves, you’re like, ‘All right, this could go really bad.’ But we’re very fortunate to, things have stabilized.”
Tulane is undefeated in the AAC and a win at Navy (7-2) on Saturday (noon ET on ESPN2) would clinch a spot in the program’s third consecutive conference title game. Tulane beat UCF two years ago, lost to SMU last season and would play Army with a win Saturday.
That type of consistent success — as often happens at the mid-major level — has led to turnover. Athletic director Troy Dannen left for Washington (then soon again for Nebraska) after hiring Fritz in December 2015 and building the program with him. Fritz left for Houston after going 23-4 his final two seasons and beating USC in the Cotton Bowl following the 2022 season.
And Tulane has found itself institutionally trying to both sustain and maximize the success. It hired Huron Consulting, of which White is a senior adviser, to do what COO Patrick Norton calls a “basic diagnosis” of the athletic department.
“[Athletics is] really important to our brand,” Norton said. “Now, how do we capitalize on that? That’s still, I think, in some ways to be determined. I mean, this is fairly recent for us, success from the Cotton Bowl, which was really an amazing experience for the university. One that we hadn’t gone through in a very, very long time.”
One of the clearest signs of Tulane’s football aspirations came immediately after last season. In the wake of Fritz’s departure to Houston and in essentially athletic director David Harris’ first week on the job, they lured the hottest coach in the Sun Belt. Sumrall had won back-to-back league titles at Troy while going 23-4, and drew interest in the last cycle from Texas A&M and Mississippi State.
Sumrall agreed to a six-year deal that’s believed to be near the top of the AAC. For a place that lagged behind so far and for so long, Harris’ immediate aggression and commitment showed that Tulane didn’t want to drift off the map for another half-century.
“Jon has had a great impact on us,” Harris told ESPN. “I think his name and his success coming in the door gave what we were continuing to try to build here at Tulane, immediate credibility because people knew his background, his success, what he had been able to do at Troy, the connection that he had had here [as a former assistant].”
To remain in the conversation for the fifth-highest-ranked conference champion, Tulane will need to keep winning and get help from some of Boise State’s Mountain West foes. But it’s entirely viable, and a testament to the school’s ability to maintain through significant turnover.
Tulane’s place in the national conversation is a fitting dividend from it’s increased investment in football. It was an object of the desire of the Pac-12 and continued success could vault it into conversations as leagues remain in flux.
Norton said that the travel in the Pac-12 loomed as an issue for Tulane and the school didn’t see a certain financial benefit from a move.
“We were leaving something that is more certain to less certain,” Norton said, “and frankly, it’s not the Pac-12 that we always knew, that we grew up with that John Wooden and UCLA and USC. It just wasn’t the same. I’m not saying that these schools aren’t solid, very good schools, but it’s not the same. And it was different than what we wanted, and so I think the decision wasn’t that hard, but we listened.”
But being courted by a league is a sign of Tulane’s evolution and success in athletics. And Sumrall said he has felt the support.
“I think that the readiness and the commitment is real,” Sumrall said. “I think that the university is seeing what football can do for the university. It’s galvanized so many people and I think it’s created a lot of exposure, and I think that that only empowers the desire to maybe help it grow even further.”
Sumrall spent three as an assistant coach at Tulane from 2012-14. He loved the city, watched guys like Leonard Fournette and Odell Beckham Jr. play high school ball. He loved the culture of the city — his favorite steakhouse is Mr. John’s down on St. Charles Avenue, and he has dabbled with the alligator cheesecake at Jacques-Imo’s. He always thought the collision of local talent and the city’s uniqueness could yield big dividends for a program stuck in neutral so long.
“So to me, that mixture of things was something that stood out to me when I was here previously,” Sumrall said. “And then the moment that’s been created with the most recent success the last few years really showed, I think, that there was an opportunity to maybe capture some positive things that have happened.”
Sumrall’s final season as an assistant coach coincided with the move to Yulman Stadium on campus and to the AAC in 2014. That marked a move out of the SuperDome, a cavernous dark hole for Tulane games that Sumrall likened to “playing in a cave.”
Since he has returned, Sumrall has seen the team being on campus and the success under Fritz energize Tulane football in New Orleans. He complimented Dannen’s decision to bring back the Angry Wave logo — fitting for a quirky city like New Orleans — and said the excitement felt today can be linked to the campus hosting football games.
“Ten years ago when I was here, I don’t think anybody here gave a damn. The city didn’t care,” he said. “There was no connection. Now you feel like a real connection. So that part’s really cool.”
Sumrall values that connection. He and his wife, Ginny, live nearby and take frequent walks on campus. She joins him when he traverses campus on Thursdays and checks in on the players classes, something Sumrall likes to do as a way to connect with the players. His presence there also stresses the academic component, which is critical at Tulane.
The roster that Sumrall as assembled is a modern mosaic of what roster building looks like, as he brought in 58 new players, including 53 transfers. He also has benefited from holdovers at quarterback and tailback who’ve both emerged as stars.
Tailback Makhi Hughes leads the AAC in rushing yards with 1,209. He averages 5.7 yards per carry and has scored 13 rushing touchdowns and two more receiving.
Quarterback Darian Mensah has thrown for 2,059 yards, 16 touchdowns and four interceptions. He has completed 65.6% of his passes and has emerged as one of the top quarterbacks in the Group of 5.
Mensah has led a balanced offense under veteran coordinator Joe Craddock that is No. 4 nationally in scoring with 41.0 points per game. Tulane is also Top 20 in scoring defense and total defense under coordinator Greg Gasparato.
Sumrall’s teams at Troy had a knack for winning close games, as Sumrall joked they went a “modest 12-2” his first year there. So far at Tulane, his team has lost only to then-No. 15 Oklahoma and then-No. 17 Kansas State, and it has handled the rest of the competition. In Tulane’s eight wins, it has won by an average of more than 30 points.
As Tulane enters the finishing kick, the program will face the same micro conundrum that it faces in the macro as a university in athletics — retaining talent and spending enough money in order to remain competitive. That includes coaches, staff and players, in an era where the financial separation is distinct compared to the power leagues.
While there’s limited movement expected in Power 4 coaching this year, Sumrall’s 31-6 career record will make him coveted this year and beyond. Mensah, who has three years of eligibility left, has authored the type of season that already has quarterback-needy schools putting together bids.
The success for Tulane is real, but so is the annual challenge to maintain it. With the ambition and momentum Tulane has gathered comes the challenge of keeping it going.
“As you look at the next several years, and the changing landscape of college athletics, people feel that there’s really a place for Tulane within the college football landscape and just overall being a stronger athletics brand,” Harris said. “And so to be in this position is incredibly exciting. It’s a big responsibility because you want to be a part of keeping the trajectory going up and keeping the excitement going and keeping the momentum going.”
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Neil Paine
Hockey is a notoriously chaotic sport in which you need a large sample of games to know what’s real versus what’s just noise. For instance, it is estimated that it takes the entire 82-game NHL season to give us as much information about team quality as just 32 NBA games — or less than half the regular season — do.
So it’s always risky to draw grand conclusions from what we see over the first month of play on the ice. But that can’t stop us from finding interesting trends emerging from the early portion of the schedule.
Here are seven initial developments that have taken us by surprise in 2024-25 so far:
1. Ovechkin’s comeback against Father Time
One of the biggest storylines heading into the season was Alex Ovechkin‘s pursuit of Wayne Gretzky’s goal-scoring record, with the Great 8 starting the season trailing The Great One by 41 scores.
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Sean Allen
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Victoria Matiash
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Victoria Matiash
Fantasy Hockey
- ESPN.com Fantasy Contributor since 2010
- Part-time anchor at NEWSTALK1010
Another week, another No. 1 landing spot for the Winnipeg Jets in the ESPN NHL Power Rankings. But who finishes 2-32?
Plus, it’s another fantasy hockey takeover week, with Sean Allen and Victoria Matiash identifying one player per team who is off to a slow start (relative to his teammates or expectations) and advising fantasy managers whether to have patience or panic at this time.
And as a reminder, it’s not too late to join ESPN Fantasy Hockey. Sign up for free and start playing today!
How we rank: A panel of ESPN hockey commentators, analysts, reporters and editors sends in a 1-32 poll based on the games through Wednesday, which generates our master list here.
Note: Previous ranking for each team refers to the previous edition, published Nov. 8. Points percentages are through Thursday’s games.
Previous ranking: 1
Points percentage: 88.24%
Cole Perfetti, LW (28.9% rostered in ESPN Fantasy leagues): As difficult as it is to find fault with anything Jets-related these days, Perfetti isn’t quite meeting 2024-25 fantasy expectations yet. But the 22-year-old remains cemented on the Jets’ second scoring line and power play, and he has pitched in enough multipoint showings to merit another look in deeper leagues. Verdict: Patience.
Next seven days: @ FLA (Nov. 16), vs. FLA (Nov. 19)
Previous ranking: 2
Points percentage: 73.33%
Brent Burns, D (69.5%): The writing had been on the wall, faintly sketched with a carpenter’s pencil, but now it’s been retraced in ink. Shayne Gostisbehere has the power play on lock, and Burns doesn’t put up the points without it now. Verdict: Panic.
Next seven days: vs. OTT (Nov. 16), vs. STL (Nov. 17), @ PHI (Nov. 20), @ NJ (Nov. 21)
Previous ranking: 4
Points percentage: 67.65%
Gustav Forsling, D (68.8%): Playoff heroics can inflate rostership numbers even this far into the future, but Forsling isn’t a must-have fantasy contributor. You can find a defenseman with a higher ceiling among your league’s free agents. Verdict: Panic.
Next seven days: vs. WPG (Nov. 16), @ WPG (Nov. 19), @ CHI (Nov. 21)
Previous ranking: 5
Points percentage: 78.13%
Marc-Andre Fleury, G (51.8%): As long as Filip Gustavsson continues to perform dependably well, the veteran No. 2 isn’t going to play much. There are other lesser-rostered backups in the league — Jake Allen and Jonathan Quick come to mind — who offer more fantasy punch than Fleury. Verdict: Panic.
Next seven days: vs. DAL (Nov. 16), @ STL (Nov. 19), @ EDM (Nov. 21)
Previous ranking: 6
Points percentage: 70.00%
Matt Roy, D (45.6%): After a breakout fantasy campaign with the Kings last season, cut Roy some slack. He has had only a handful of games to get used to his new teammates, and the minutes are there to get the job done. Verdict: Patience.
Next seven days: @ COL (Nov. 15), @ VGK (Nov. 17), @ UTA (Nov. 18), vs. COL (Nov. 21)
Previous ranking: 3
Points percentage: 70.00%
Mika Zibanejad, C (95.6%): Zibanejad has had slow starts before — 1.78 FPPG in 2021-22 and 1.93 FPPG last season — yet still finished over 2.00 FPPG. His current 1.58 FPPG isn’t alarming. Verdict: Patience.
Next seven days: @ SEA (Nov. 17), @ VAN (Nov. 19), @ CGY (Nov. 21)
Previous ranking: 7
Points percentage: 68.75%
Brayden McNabb, D (52.3%): Returning to his selfless ways — highlighted by five blocked shots against the Ducks Wednesday — McNabb is already working back into his fantasy managers’ good graces. While hardly a prolific producer, the veteran should start pitching in a few more points, too. Verdict: Patience.
Next seven days: @ UTA (Nov. 15), vs. WSH (Nov. 17), @ TOR (Nov. 20), @ OTT (Nov. 21)
Previous ranking: 10
Points percentage: 65.00%
Luke Hughes, D (39.1%): He did an admirable job filling in for an injured Dougie Hamilton as a rookie last season, but unless that situation arises again, it looks as though Hughes is out of the limelight for this campaign. Verdict: Panic.
Next seven days: @ TB (Nov. 16), vs. CAR (Nov. 21)
Previous ranking: 8
Points percentage: 66.67%
Roope Hintz, C (79.8%): Some bad puck luck, illustrated by his 6.7% shooting percentage through six recent contests (career: 16.5%), is partially to blame for Hintz’s current skid. But the perennial 30-plus goal scorer is bound to get back on track soon, especially once Peter DeBoer inevitably juggles his lines again. Verdict: Patience.
Next seven days: @ MIN (Nov. 16), vs. ANA (Nov. 18), vs. SJ (Nov. 20)
Previous ranking: 11
Points percentage: 63.33%
Filip Hronek, D (51.9%): He’s averaging approximately a single shot and blocked shot per game. Unlike last season, the compensatory scoring isn’t there to make up for those shortcomings. Hronek appears far more valuable to the Canucks as Quinn Hughes‘ defensive partner than to his fantasy managers. Verdict: Panic.
Next seven days: vs. CHI (Nov. 16), vs. NSH (Nov. 17), vs. NYR (Nov. 19)
Previous ranking: 9
Points percentage: 58.33%
Quinton Byfield, RW (43.2%): The lack of a single power-play point is one concern, along with his removal from the top unit. Through the fantasy lens, so is Byfield’s third-line role. If all remains as is, we might be in for another season of inconsistent fantasy returns. Verdict: Panic.
Next seven days: vs. DET (Nov. 16), vs. BUF (Nov. 20)
Previous ranking: 13
Points percentage: 61.11%
Matthew Knies, LW (42.4%): He has been making hay while the sun shines, so to speak, as he gets first power-play unit access while Auston Matthews is out. The confidence boost should carry over to when Matthews returns, and they are linemates again. Verdict: Patience.
Next seven days: vs. EDM (Nov. 16), vs. VGK (Nov. 20)
Previous ranking: 17
Points percentage: 55.88%
Jeff Skinner, C (45.0%): Afforded the opportunity to compete alongside just about every Oiler up front, including two of the best centers in the biz, the veteran winger has nonetheless failed to offer much of a productive presence. Now Skinner appears relegated to Edmonton’s fourth line. Verdict: Panic.
Next seven days: @ TOR (Nov. 16), @ MTL (Nov. 18), @ OTT (Nov. 19), vs. MIN (Nov. 21)
Previous ranking: 12
Points percentage: 56.67%
Jake Guentzel, LW (98.8%): Guentzel’s overall output is fantastic already, but with just two power-play points so far, he has yet to add his usual production with the man advantage. If he does, his already strong fantasy profile could get a big boost. Verdict: Patience.
Next seven days: vs. NJ (Nov. 16), @ PIT (Nov. 19), @ CBJ (Nov. 21)
Previous ranking: 19
Points percentage: 52.94%
Devon Toews, D (66.7%): While it has taken the defender time to warm up after a delayed start to 2024-25, Toews now appears back in his groove: blocking shots, contributing to the score sheet and skating more minutes than nearly everyone else. Cale Makar‘s partner hasn’t averaged 0.58 points per game throughout his career by accident. Verdict: Patience.
Next seven days: vs. WSH (Nov. 15), @ PHI (Nov. 18), @ WSH (Nov. 21)
Previous ranking: 15
Points percentage: 53.13%
Linus Ullmark, G (84.8%): The Senators are showing signs of competing, and we know Ullmark is capable of being among the best. Patience might already be paying off with some of his recent road outings against tough division rivals. Verdict: Patience.
Next seven days: @ CAR (Nov. 16), vs. EDM (Nov. 19), vs. VGK (Nov. 21)
Previous ranking: 14
Points percentage: 55.88%
Nazem Kadri, C (78.4%): While no one is scoring much for the Flames these days, including their No. 1 center, this too shall pass. Perhaps it’ll play out like last season, when Kadri collected two points in October before erupting for 13 in November, then maintained that scoring pace for the duration of the season. Also, he shoots the puck a lot. Verdict: Patience.
Next seven days: vs. NSH (Nov. 15), vs. NYI (Nov. 19), vs. NYR (Nov. 21)
Previous ranking: 20
Points percentage: 50.00%
Charlie McAvoy, D (89.9%): The Bruins’ offense might be slower this season, but McAvoy’s 1.64 FPPG is still too low. Give him time. Not enough has changed to drop him far from his 2.29 FPPG average over the past three seasons. Verdict: Patience
Next seven days: vs. STL (Nov. 16), vs. CBJ (Nov. 18), vs. UTA (Nov. 21)
Previous ranking: 18
Points percentage: 53.13%
Barrett Hayton, C (17.5%): According to analysis by Evolving Hockey, the third-line center (for now) should be scoring more goals in accordance with the quality of his shots. That offers some comfort in light of his current skid. While Hayton certainly needs to play more minutes and shoot on net more often, he doesn’t merit giving up entirely in deeper fantasy leagues. Verdict: Patience.
Next seven days: vs. VGK (Nov. 15), vs. WSH (Nov. 18), @ BOS (Nov. 21)
Previous ranking: 24
Points percentage: 52.94%
Brock Nelson, C (76.9%): The Isles’ collective offense isn’t weaker than it has been for several years. Nelson has averaged 2.03 FPPG across the past three seasons. He’ll come around. Verdict: Patience.
Next seven days: @ SEA (Nov. 16), @ CGY (Nov. 19), @ DET (Nov. 21)
Previous ranking: 21
Points percentage: 50.00%
Patrick Kane, RW (66.3%): If the Red Wings’ power play were in the dumps, maybe we could preach patience for Kane. But it’s not, and it might be time to move on from Kane in fantasy. He is getting all the opportunities required and is just not producing. Verdict: Panic.
Next seven days: @ ANA (Nov. 15), @ LA (Nov. 16), @ SJ (Nov. 18), vs. NYI (Nov. 21)
Previous ranking: 23
Points percentage: 50.00%
Dylan Cozens, C (49.3%): It is time to move off Cozens. He had that banner 2022-23 but is now matching the reduced fantasy production that lasted all of last season. Even an uptick in performance might not be enough to get to fantasy relevance from his current 1.41 FPPG. Verdict: Panic.
Next seven days: @ PHI (Nov. 16), @ LA (Nov. 20)
Previous ranking: 25
Points percentage: 50.00%
Adam Larsson, D (60.5%): Despite the relative drought, the top-pair defenseman still blocks a sufficient number of shots to merit rostering in deeper standard leagues. Plus, he’ll soon fall back into his usual (however relatively modest) scoring groove. Verdict: Patience.
Next seven days: vs. NYI (Nov. 16), vs. NYR (Nov. 17), vs. NSH (Nov. 20)
Previous ranking: 16
Points percentage: 44.12%
Jordan Binnington, G (55.1%): After winning the season opener against Seattle, the Blues’ No. 1 has yet to beat anyone outside of the Atlantic Division. Shouldering a 4-7-0 record, .887 save percentage and 3.26 goals-against average, Binnington has cost his fantasy managers a total net loss of 1.8 points. Yes, negative points. There are likely brighter days ahead for the banged-up Blues, but when? Verdict: Panic.
Next seven days: @ BOS (Nov. 16), @ CAR (Nov. 17), vs. MIN (Nov. 19), vs. SJ (Nov. 21)
Previous ranking: 31
Points percentage: 47.06%
Joel Farabee, LW (50.7%): Farabee, Tyson Foerster, Scott Laughton; Take your pick of Flyers who were just picking up some fantasy momentum in their career but have been buried on the depth chart by the new core group. Verdict: Panic.
Next seven days: vs. BUF (Nov. 16), vs. COL (Nov. 18), vs. CAR (Nov. 20)
Previous ranking: 27
Points percentage: 38.24%
Teuvo Teravainen, RW (41.4%): The Blackhawks’ offseason acquisition has one goal and zero assists in his past 11 games, and he isn’t shooting with any consistency. Even back on a scoring line with Connor Bedard, Teravainen can’t be counted on to contribute regularly enough. Verdict: Panic.
Next seven days: @ VAN (Nov. 16), vs. ANA (Nov. 19), vs. FLA (Nov. 21)
Previous ranking: 26
Points percentage: 41.67%
Erik Karlsson, D (94.1%): It’s been a season and a quarter now, so what we see from Karlsson as a Penguin might be what we get. He’s not the sole source of offense, so downgraded fantasy output is just the new normal. Verdict: Panic.
Next seven days: @ CBJ (Nov. 15), vs. SJ (Nov. 16), vs. TB (Nov. 19)
Previous ranking: 22
Points percentage: 40.00%
Ivan Provorov, D (19.2%): No one on the Blue Jackets is underperforming in a big way, but even 20% rostership is too high for Provorov. If he’s not on the first pair, you can safely pretend he’s not there. Verdict: Panic.
Next seven days: vs. PIT (Nov. 15), @ MTL (Nov. 16), @ BOS (Nov. 18), vs. TB (Nov. 21)
Previous ranking: 28
Points percentage: 38.24%
Gustav Nyquist, RW (16.6%): Once replaced by Steven Stamkos on the Predators’ top line, Nyquist lost most of his fantasy charm. It’s no coincidence the winger was at his most productive when skating alongside Filip Forsberg and Ryan O’Reilly. Verdict: Panic.
Next seven days: @ CGY (Nov. 15), @ VAN (Nov. 17), @ SEA (Nov. 20)
Previous ranking: 29
Points percentage: 40.00%
Lukas Dostal, G (60.7%): The Ducks allow the most shots against (35.5 per game) while scoring the fewest goals (2.20 per game). Plus, a healthy John Gibson is back to share Anaheim’s crease. Dostal’s successful fantasy run was fun while it lasted. It’s time to move on. Verdict: Panic.
Next seven days: vs. DET (Nov. 15), @ DAL (Nov. 18), @ CHI (Nov. 19)
Previous ranking: 32
Points percentage: 36.11%
William Eklund, LW (56.2%): The sophomore is playing a ton of minutes, pitching in assists and now skating on a scoring line with Mikael Granlund. Which is a good thing. Yes, we’d all like to see him shoot more. Verdict: Patience.
Next seven days: @ PIT (Nov. 16), vs. DET (Nov. 18), @ DAL (Nov. 20), @ STL (Nov. 21)
Previous ranking: 30
Points percentage: 35.29%
Sam Montembeault, G (22.3%): The Habs don’t look like they’ll win enough for Monty to shine in redraft leagues, but if you drafted him for a keeper league, there are positive signs for the future. Verdict: Patience, at least for the long term.
Next seven days: vs. CBJ (Nov. 16), vs. EDM (Nov. 18)
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