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Mortgage lending is set to fall in 2024, with repossessions and the number of households in arrears to increase, according to a forecast by a lenders’ trade body.

UK Finance said while affordability pressures were peaking – largely reflecting the end of the Bank of England‘s cycle of interest rate hikes to tackle inflation – the situation is unlikely to improve markedly until 2025.

It cited the continued pressure on household budgets from the wider cost of living crisis and the fact mortgage rates remain high compared to post financial crisis levels.

The Bank itself warned last week five million more households – roughly half – are yet to feel the burden of interest rate rises on their mortgage.

Data from Moneyfacts on Friday showed the average two-year fixed rate residential mortgage slipped below 6% for the first time in six months.

The five-year figure was 5.6%.

The financial information service said there are a growing number of two-year deals on offer below 5%, which could help stoke demand for lending and help bring the averages down further in the months to come.

However, those declines are widely expected to be limited due to the fact the Bank of England is not expected to start cutting borrowing costs any time soon.

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‘People are waiting for mortgage rates to drop’

Financial markets currently see a prospect for the first interest rate cut, from the current level of 5.25%, in the third quarter of next year.

Bank governor Andrew Bailey has repeatedly warned Bank rate will remain higher for longer due to continued inflation threats.

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BoE: Inflation is ‘still too high’

UK Finance forecast that mortgage arrears – those behind by over 2.5% of their outstanding balance – would rise from 105,600 cases by the end of this year, to 128,000 in 2024.

The trade body said repossessions, while remaining “incredibly low” by historic comparisons, would go up from 4,400 this year to around 5,100 next year.

The report said: “With a continuing favourable labour market, extensive lender forbearance and gradually improving affordability, the vast majority of customers now falling behind will eventually recover their positions. The very small minority of cases where this is not possible will not feed through into any material increase in possessions over our forecast period.”

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James Tatch, head of analytics at UK Finance, said: “2023 was a challenging year for both prospective and existing mortgage borrowers, facing affordability pressures from higher interest rates and the increased cost of living, as well as house prices still at elevated levels relative to income.

“In the face of these challenges, borrowing for house purchase has been constrained. At the same time, most existing customers looking to refinance their loans chose to take a product transfer with their current lender, where affordability tests are not required.

“With these pressures unlikely to ease significantly in the short-term, we expect lending to remain weak in 2024, with a gradual improvement in affordability reflected in a modest increase in activity levels in 2025.

“The challenging environment has also pushed more households into mortgage arrears. However, the rigorous affordability tests in place since 2014 are now working to ensure that the vast majority of customers can still afford their mortgage payments even with the increased pressure on their finances.”

He added: “Although we forecast more customers will encounter arrears next year, we expect numbers to peak well below levels seen previously.

“As always, any customers who do find themselves in difficulty should speak to their lender at an early stage, as the industry continues to provide help to anyone struggling with a range of tailored support options.”

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Getir quits UK with multimillion pound Tottenham Hotspur debt

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Getir quits UK with multimillion pound Tottenham Hotspur debt

Getir, the grocery delivery app which this month confirmed plans to exit the UK, has an outstanding debt to Tottenham Hotspur Football Club running to millions of pounds.

Sky News understands that Turkey-based Getir, whose three-year training kit sponsorship deal with Spurs expired at the end of the Premier League season on Sunday, owes close to £5m to the club.

News of the outstanding debt comes as Getir tries to access a tranche of agreed funding from major investors Mubadala and G Squared to help facilitate its withdrawal from the UK, Germany and the Netherlands.

It was unclear this weekend whether the delivery app, which means “to bring” in Turkish, has the means to settle its financial obligations to Spurs.

The company once attained a valuation of almost £10bn, but has been forced by its deteriorating finances to retrench back to its home market, in the process axing thousands of jobs.

Its withdrawal from the UK has put about 1,500 jobs at risk, Sky News revealed earlier this month.

Companies such as Getir were big winners during the pandemic, attracting funding at astronomical valuations.

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Its decline highlights the slumping valuations of technology companies once-hailed as the new titans of food retailing.

Many of its rivals have already gone bust, while others have been swallowed up as part of a desperate wave of consolidation.

Getir itself bought Gorillas in a $1.2bn stock-based deal that closed in December 2022.

Getir and Tottenham Hotspur both declined to comment.

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Sir Jim Ratcliffe scolds Tories over handling of economy and immigration after Brexit

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Sir Jim Ratcliffe scolds Tories over handling of economy and immigration after Brexit

Billionaire Sir Jim Ratcliffe has told Sky News that Britain is ready for a change of government after scolding the Conservatives over their handling of the economy and immigration after Brexit.

While insisting his petrochemicals conglomerate INEOS is apolitical, Sir Jim backed Brexit and spent last weekend with Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer at Manchester United – the football club he now runs as minority owner.

“I’m sure Keir will do a very good job at running the country – I have no questions about that,” Sir Jim said in an exclusive interview.

“There’s no question that the Conservatives have had a good run,” he added. “I think most of the country probably feels it’s time for a change. And I sort of get that, really.”

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Sir Jim was a prominent backer of leaving the European Union in the 2016 referendum but now has issues with how Brexit was delivered by Tory prime ministers.

“Brexit sort of unfortunately didn’t turn out as people anticipated because… Brexit was largely about immigration,” Sir Jim said.

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“That was the biggest component of that vote. People were getting fed up with the influx of the city of Southampton coming in every year. I think last year it was two times Southampton.

“I mean, no small island like the UK could cope with vast numbers of people coming into the UK.

“I mean, it just overburdens the National Health Service, the traffic service, the police, everybody.

“The country was designed for 55 or 60 million people and we’ve got 70 million people and all the services break down as a consequence.

“That’s what Brexit was all about and nobody’s implemented that. They just keep talking about it. But nothing’s been done, which is why I think we’ll finish up with the change of government.”

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UK needs to get ‘sharper on the business front’

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has indicated an election is due this year but Monaco-based Sir Jim is unimpressed by the Conservatives’ handling of the economy.

“The UK does need to get a bit sharper on the business front,” he said. “I think the biggest objective for the government is to create growth in the economy.

“There’s two parts of the economy, there’s the services side of the economy and there’s the manufacturing side. And the manufacturing, unfortunately, has been sliding away now for the last 25 years.

“We were very similar in scale to Germany probably 25 years ago.

“But today we’re just a fraction of where Germany is and I think that isn’t healthy for the British economy… particularly when you think the north of England is very manufacturing based, and that talks to things like energy competitiveness, it talks to things like, why do you put an immensely high tax on the North Sea?

“That just disincentivises people from finding hydrocarbons in the North Sea, in energy.

“And what we need is competitive energy. So I mean, in America, in the energy world, in the oil and gas world, they just apply a corporation tax to the oil and gas companies, which is about 30%. And in the UK we’ve got this tax of 75% because we want to kill off the oil and gas companies.

“But if we don’t have competitive energy, we’re not going to have a healthy manufacturing industry. And that just makes no sense to me at all. No.”

‘We’re apolitical’

Asked about INEOS donating to Labour, Sir Jim replied: “We’re apolitical, INEOS.

“We just want a successful manufacturing sector in the UK and we’ve talked to the government about that. It’s pretty clear about our views.”

Sir Jim was keener to talk about the economy and politics than his role at struggling Manchester United, which he bought a 27.7% stake in from the American Glazer family in February – giving him an even higher business profile.

Old Trafford stadium in Manchester. Pic: AP
Image:
Old Trafford stadium in Manchester. Pic: AP

Push for stadium of the North

He is continuing to push for public funds to regenerate Old Trafford and the surrounding areas despite no apparent political support being forthcoming. Sir Keir was hosted at the stadium for a Premier League match last weekend just as heavy rain exposed the fragility of the ageing venue.

“There’s a very good case, in my view, for having a stadium of the North, which would serve the northern part of the country in that arena of football,” Sir Jim said. “If you look at the number of Champions League the North West has won, it’s 10. London has won two.

“And yet everybody from the North has to get down to London to watch a big football match. And there should be one [a large stadium] in the North, in my view.

“But it’s also important for the southern side of Manchester, you know, to regenerate.

“It’s the sort of second capital of the country where the Industrial Revolution began.

“But if you have a regeneration project, you need a nucleus or a regeneration project and having that world-class stadium there, I think would provide the impetus to regenerate that region.”

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Marks & Spencer’s website and app go down

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Marks & Spencer's website and app go down

Marks & Spencer’s website and app has not been working for several hours, with a message telling shoppers “you can’t shop with us right now”.

“We’re working hard to be back online as soon as possible,” it adds.

All the menus and images have disappeared apart from one showing a model in a green jacket.

Customers trying to use the app got the message: “Sorry you can’t shop through the app right now. We’re busy making some planned changes, but will be back soon.”

The site is understood to have been down for several hours.

Replying to one customer on X, the retailer said: “We’re experiencing some technical issues but we are working on it.”

M&S is the latest high street name to have technical issues – last month some Sainsbury’s shoppers had problems with their online orders.

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The outage comes a few days before M&S is expected to reveal a big jump in annual profits.

It’s been a successful year for the brand, with strong sales across the business following a turnaround plan that has included store closures and cost cutting.

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