The UK economy took a surprise tumble in October, according to an early official estimate that showed a contraction of 0.3%.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that output in all three main divisions – services, manufacturing and construction – was in negative territory.
Economists had expected a flat performance, following on from the 0.2% growth seen in September.
That meagre figure helped the economy to zero growth for the third quarter of the year, easing concerns over the prospect for a recession which is realised if a country records two consecutive quarters of contraction.
Nevertheless, the latest data builds on expectations of a largely flat performance ahead, despite a series of growth measures announced by the chancellor in his autumn statement last month.
Jeremy Hunt said of the ONS figures: “It is inevitable GDP (gross domestic product) will be subdued whilst interest rates are doing their job to bring down inflation.”
Action taken by the Bank of England since December 2021 to tame inflation was intended to hit demand in the economy, helping the pace of price growth ease.
While the rate of inflation has slowed considerably from the figure above 11% seen just over a year ago, prices are still rising but just at a steadier pace.
The effect of interest rate hikes imposed by the Bank has added to borrowing costs, with rising mortgage and rent bills becoming a key plank of the cost of living crisis.
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Household spending power has, to some extent, been propped up by a record pace for wage growth but data on Tuesday showed sharp falls in the levels of awards.
Consumers were still, however, enjoying the best real wage growth – when inflation is accounted for – for two years due to the steep easing in the inflation rate in October.
The Bank’s monetary policy committee has seen enough progress in bringing inflation down to have kept Bank rate at 5.25% for two consecutive meetings.
It is due to outline its next rate decision on Thursday, with financial markets and economists widely expecting a further pause.
ONS director of economic statistics, Darren Morgan, said of Wednesday’s data: “Our initial estimates suggest that GDP growth was flat across the last three months.
“Increases in services, led by engineering, film production and education – which recovered from the impact of summer strikes – were offset by falls in both manufacturing and housebuilding.
“October, however, saw contractions across all three main sectors. Services were the biggest driver of the fall with drops in IT, legal firms and film production – which fell back after a couple of strong months.
“These were also compounded by widespread falls in manufacturing and construction, which fell partly due to the poor weather.”
Shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves said: “Rishi Sunak ends the year having failed to deliver on his own promise to grow the economy.
“Economic growth is going backwards leaving working people worse off,” she said.
One of Britain’s leading venture capital investors is close to unveiling a deal to take over a nascent fintech fund which counted Lord Hammond, the former chancellor, among its advisors.
Sky News has learnt that Octopus Ventures has provisionally agreed to absorb the Fintech Growth Fund (FGF), which boasted of financial commitments from Barclays, the London Stock Exchange’s parent company, Mastercard and NatWest Group after it was set up three years ago.
The FGF has struggled to hit its original fundraising target and has yet to formally disclose any investments.
Sources close to a number of its investors said it was expected to be taken over by Octopus Investments in the coming weeks, with the transaction to be completed by the end of June.
Peel Hunt, the investment bank, had been advising on the fundraising for the last two years, and was itself an investor in the fund.
The FGF was originally conceived as a vehicle that would back high-potential UK-based fintechs, largely between their Series B and pre-public listing rounds of funding.
According to an announcement made in August 2023, it aimed to make between four and eight investments annually, with cheques of between £10m and £100m.
In addition to Lord Hammond, the FGF’s advisory board included Dame Jayne-Anne Gadhia, the former Virgin Money boss; Baroness Morrissey, the former Legal & General Investment Management executive; Lord Grimstone, the former trade minister; and Sir Charles Bowman, former Lord Mayor of London.
Octopus Investments, which is now run by Erin Platt, the former boss of Silicon Valley Bank UK, is said to have significant ambitions for the FGF, which has built a lengthy pipeline of potential investments.
A spokesperson for Octopus Investments declined to comment this weekend, while the FGF could not be reached for comment.
There will be much to chew over at the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) spring meetings this week.
Central bankers and finance ministers will descend on Washington for its latest bi-annual gathering, a place where politicians and academics converge, all of them trying to make sense of what’s going on in the global economy.
Everything and nothing has changed since they last met in October – one man continues to dominate the agenda.
Six months ago, delegates were wondering if Donald Trump could win the election and what that might mean for tax and tariffs: How far would he push it? Would his policy match his rhetoric?
Image: Donald Trump. Pic: Reuters
This time round, expect iterations of the same questions: Will the US president risk plunging the world’s largest economy into recession?
Yes, he put on a bombastic display on his so-called “Liberation Day”, but will he now row back? Have the markets effectively checked him?
Behind the scenes, finance ministers from around the world will be practising their powers of persuasion, each jostling for meetings with their US counterparts to negotiate a reduction in Trump’s tariffs.
That includes Chancellor Rachel Reeves, who is still holding out hope for a trade deal with the US – although she is not alone in that.
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13:27
Could Trump make a deal with UK?
Are we heading for a recession?
The IMF’s economists have already made up their minds about Trump’s potential for damage.
Last week, they warned about the growing risks to financial stability after a period of turbulence in the financial markets, induced by Trump’s decision to ratchet up US protectionism to its highest level in a century.
By the middle of this week the organisation will publish its World Economic Outlook, in which it will downgrade global growth but stop short of predicting a full-blown recession.
Others are less optimistic.
Kristalina Georgieva, the IMF’s managing director, said last week: “Our new growth projections will include notable markdowns, but not recession. We will also see markups to the inflation forecasts for some countries.”
She acknowledged the world was undergoing a “reboot of the global trading system,” comparing trade tensions to “a pot that was bubbling for a long time and is now boiling over”.
She went on: “To a large extent, what we see is the result of an erosion of trust – trust in the international system, and trust between countries.”
Image: IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva. Pic: Reuters
Don’t poke the bear
It was a carefully calibrated response. Georgieva did not lay the blame at the US’s door and stopped short of calling on the Trump administration to stop or water down its aggressive tariffs policy.
That might have been a choice. To the frustration of politicians past and present, the IMF does not usually shy away from making its opinions known.
Last year it warned Jeremy Hunt against cutting taxes, and back in 2022 it openly criticised the Liz Truss government’s plans, warning tax cuts would fuel inflation and inequality.
Taking such a candid approach with Trump invites risks. His administration is already weighing up whether to withdraw from global institutions, including the IMF and the World Bank.
The US is the largest shareholder in both, and its departure could be devastating for two organisations that have been pillars of the world economic order since the end of the Second World War.
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Here in the UK, Andrew Bailey has already raised concerns about the prospect of global fragmentation.
It is “very important that we don’t have a fragmentation of the world economy,” the Bank of England’s governor said.
“A big part of that is that we have support and engagement in the multilateral institutions, institutions like the IMF, the World Bank, that support the operation of the world economy. That’s really important.”
The Trump administration might take a different view when its review of intergovernmental organisations is complete.
That is the main tension running through this year’s spring meetings.
How much the IMF will say and how much we will have to read between the lines, remains to be seen.
The new owner of The Original Factory Shop (TOFS), one of Britain’s leading independent discount retailers, is preparing to unveil a package of savage rent cuts for its store landlords.
Sky News understands that Modella Capital – which recently agreed to buy WH Smith’s high street arm – is finalising plans for a company voluntary arrangement (CVA) at TOFS.
City sources said the CVA – which requires court approval – could be unveiled within days.
Property sources cited industry rumours that significant store closures and job losses could form part of TOFS’ plans, while demands for two-year rent-free periods at some shops are said to also feature.
A spokesman for Modella declined to comment.
Modella, which also owns Hobbycraft, bought TOFS from its previous owner, Duke Street Capital, just two months ago.
Almost immediately, it engaged restructuring experts at Interpath to work on the plans.
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Sources have speculated that dozens of TOFS stores could close under a CVA, while a major distribution centre is also thought to feature in the proposals.
Any so-called ‘landlord-led’ CVA which triggered store closures would inevitably lead to job losses among TOFS’ workforce, which was said to number about 1,800 people at the time of the takeover.
TOFS, which sells beauty brands such as L’Oreal, the sportswear label Adidas and DIY tools made by Black & Decker, trades from about 180 stores.
The chain, which was founded in 1969, was bought by the private equity firm Duke Street in 2007.
Duke Street had tried to sell the business before, having supported it through the COVID-19 pandemic with a cash injection of more than £10m.