Computer programmers, butchers and chefs top the workers that might be missing in 2024
Software programmers, IT specialists and chefs could be in shorter supply when an increased minimum salary for skilled worker visas kicks in next year, according to analysis conducted for Sky News.
Currently companies sponsoring a skilled worker from overseas for a visa have to pay a minimum salary of £26,200, but that will increase to £38,700 from April, pricing out the “going rate” for the majority of professions and trades eligible.
Analysis by immigration specialists Eversheds Sutherland found that, of the jobs with an official going rate below the new threshold, there were most applications for IT and software professionals, as well as chefs in the first half of this year.
There were 3,670 applications for programmers and software development professionals, 2,878 for IT and business analysts, and 2,382 for chefs in the six months to July.
Programmers are also the most in-demand profession based on data from the start of 2019, with 30,738 visa applications in total, and IT specialists second with 24,203.
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Demand for chefs under the skilled worker visa scheme is largely a post-Brexit, post-pandemic trend however, with demand increasing from fewer than 100 visas in 2019 rising to almost 3,500 in 2022.
That reflects anecdotal evidence from the hospitality industry of an exodus of EU-born staff, who did not require a visa before 2020, many of whom did not return after the pandemic.
There was a similar spike in demand for restaurant and catering managers as well as butchers, who were in short supply last year prompting concerns that pigs in particular would need to be culled.
There was just a single skilled visa application for a butcher in the two and a half years from 2019 to mid-2021, but 3,060 in the 18 months that followed.
Audrey Elliott, partner and head of immigration at Eversheds Sutherland, said the changes, and the lack of detail from the Home Office since Home Secretary James Cleverley made the headline announcement last week, was leading to uncertainty.
“The change proposed in respect of the salary threshold is significant and there are many ramifications arising from this increase that will need to be worked though as the detail becomes available,” she said.
“In the meantime we have a period of uncertainly for employers, employees and candidates. Employers in the UK have experienced many challenges in the last few years in resourcing their businesses with the skills and experience needed.
“Brexit and COVID created significant change in the recruitment landscape – from the legal basis of work to the move to remote and hybrid working. A few years on we are all getting to grips with the art of the possible and this announcement will see a return to uncertainty.”
Some of the jobs on the list, which counts the most-used Home Office occupation codes, are also on the government’s shortage occupation list, which allows companies to pay a 20% discount on the going rate for jobs that cannot be easily filled in the UK, but is being scrapped under the new rules.
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Tough visa rules for foreign workers
It will be replaced by an immigration salary list, but it is unclear at this stage what roles and what pay will be permitted.
Mr Cleverly told the House of Commons the changes were part of a package of measures intended to reduce legal migration and in turn net migration, from a record 745,000 people in last year.
The Home Office said details of the policy changes would be published in due course.
Billionaire Sir Jim Ratcliffe has told Sky News that Britain is ready for a change of government after scolding the Conservatives over their handling of the economy and immigration after Brexit.
While insisting his petrochemicals conglomerate INEOS is apolitical, Sir Jim backed Brexit and spent last weekend with Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer at Manchester United – the football club he now runs as minority owner.
“I’m sure Keir will do a very good job at running the country – I have no questions about that,” Sir Jim said in an exclusive interview.
“There’s no question that the Conservatives have had a good run,” he added. “I think most of the country probably feels it’s time for a change. And I sort of get that, really.”
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Sir Jim was a prominent backer of leaving the European Union in the 2016 referendum but now has issues with how Brexit was delivered by Tory prime ministers.
“Brexit sort of unfortunately didn’t turn out as people anticipated because… Brexit was largely about immigration,” Sir Jim said.
“That was the biggest component of that vote. People were getting fed up with the influx of the city of Southampton coming in every year. I think last year it was two times Southampton.
“I mean, no small island like the UK could cope with vast numbers of people coming into the UK.
“I mean, it just overburdens the National Health Service, the traffic service, the police, everybody.
“The country was designed for 55 or 60 million people and we’ve got 70 million people and all the services break down as a consequence.
“That’s what Brexit was all about and nobody’s implemented that. They just keep talking about it. But nothing’s been done, which is why I think we’ll finish up with the change of government.”
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UK needs to get ‘sharper on the business front’
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has indicated an election is due this year but Monaco-based Sir Jim is unimpressed by the Conservatives’ handling of the economy.
“The UK does need to get a bit sharper on the business front,” he said. “I think the biggest objective for the government is to create growth in the economy.
“There’s two parts of the economy, there’s the services side of the economy and there’s the manufacturing side. And the manufacturing, unfortunately, has been sliding away now for the last 25 years.
“We were very similar in scale to Germany probably 25 years ago.
“But today we’re just a fraction of where Germany is and I think that isn’t healthy for the British economy… particularly when you think the north of England is very manufacturing based, and that talks to things like energy competitiveness, it talks to things like, why do you put an immensely high tax on the North Sea?
“That just disincentivises people from finding hydrocarbons in the North Sea, in energy.
“And what we need is competitive energy. So I mean, in America, in the energy world, in the oil and gas world, they just apply a corporation tax to the oil and gas companies, which is about 30%. And in the UK we’ve got this tax of 75% because we want to kill off the oil and gas companies.
“But if we don’t have competitive energy, we’re not going to have a healthy manufacturing industry. And that just makes no sense to me at all. No.”
‘We’re apolitical’
Asked about INEOS donating to Labour, Sir Jim replied: “We’re apolitical, INEOS.
“We just want a successful manufacturing sector in the UK and we’ve talked to the government about that. It’s pretty clear about our views.”
Sir Jim was keener to talk about the economy and politics than his role at struggling Manchester United, which he bought a 27.7% stake in from the American Glazer family in February – giving him an even higher business profile.
Old Trafford stadium in Manchester. Pic: AP
Push for stadium of the North
He is continuing to push for public funds to regenerate Old Trafford and the surrounding areas despite no apparent political support being forthcoming. Sir Keir was hosted at the stadium for a Premier League match last weekend just as heavy rain exposed the fragility of the ageing venue.
“There’s a very good case, in my view, for having a stadium of the North, which would serve the northern part of the country in that arena of football,” Sir Jim said. “If you look at the number of Champions League the North West has won, it’s 10. London has won two.
“And yet everybody from the North has to get down to London to watch a big football match. And there should be one [a large stadium] in the North, in my view.
“But it’s also important for the southern side of Manchester, you know, to regenerate.
“It’s the sort of second capital of the country where the Industrial Revolution began.
“But if you have a regeneration project, you need a nucleus or a regeneration project and having that world-class stadium there, I think would provide the impetus to regenerate that region.”
Marks & Spencer’s website and app has not been working for several hours, with a message telling shoppers “you can’t shop with us right now”.
“We’re working hard to be back online as soon as possible,” it adds.
All the menus and images have disappeared apart from one showing a model in a green jacket.
Customers trying to use the app got the message: “Sorry you can’t shop through the app right now. We’re busy making some planned changes, but will be back soon.”
The site is understood to have been down for several hours.
Replying to one customer on X, the retailer said: “We’re experiencing some technical issues but we are working on it.”
M&S is the latest high street name to have technical issues – last month some Sainsbury’s shoppers had problems with their online orders.
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The outage comes a few days before M&S is expected to reveal a big jump in annual profits.
It’s been a successful year for the brand, with strong sales across the business following a turnaround plan that has included store closures and cost cutting.
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