
FCS semifinal preview: Can anybody stop South Dakota State?
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Bill Connelly, ESPN Staff WriterDec 15, 2023, 08:00 AM ET
Close- Bill Connelly is a staff writer for ESPN.com.
It’s best to bring your best when the most people are watching. With the nation’s football attention mostly to itself — and TV viewership numbers excellent — the FCS quarterfinals were absolutely fantastic.
Last Friday night, we got one of the best games of the season, a 35-28 Montana overtime win over Furman that featured two huge return touchdowns. On Saturday we got Villanova’s valiant (but eventually fruitless) showing against South Dakota State in windy Brookings, plus a North Dakota State revenge pummeling of South Dakota. And in the Saturday night finale, we got another great one: After trailing for most of the game, UAlbany went on a 16-0 fourth-quarter run and toppled Idaho, 30-22, on the road.
Now it’s time for the semifinals. We’ve got three classic FCS brands and an upstart vying for a January 7 trip to Frisco, Texas, for the national championship. The action starts back in Brookings on Friday night.
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No. 5 UAlbany at No. 1 South Dakota State (Friday, 7 p.m., ESPN2)
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North Dakota State at No. 2 Montana (Saturday, 4:30 p.m., ESPN2)
Over the course of 13 or 14 games, a team’s overall storyline has time to evolve. That’s been the case for at least three of the semifinalists. Competitive losses to Marshall and Hawaii, paired with a blowout of Villanova, painted an encouraging picture of Albany’s playoff prospects early on. However, its dominant defense got lit up in a 38-31 loss to New Hampshire. Reason for doubt? Not so much: The Great Danes have allowed just 13.4 points per game since and have reached the semifinals for the first time.
Montana created its own plot twist. Following a shocking 28-14 loss at Northern Arizona, head coach Bobby Hauck made a QB change, switching from Sam Vidlak to Clifton McDowell. The offense stabilized for a few weeks, then ignited. Over their last six games, against a list of opponents that includes four playoff teams, the Grizzlies have won by an average score of 38-12.
In Fargo, NDSU has experienced a fall full of unexpected developments. First, the Bison lost three regular-season games for the first time since 2010. Then, this past week, they found out they were losing head coach Matt Entz, not to a head coaching job (as is customary for NDSU) but to USC, where he will be the linebackers coach. Still, something familiar has emerged from this relative chaos: winning. The Bison have won five straight, four against ranked or playoff opponents and four by at least 21 points. Despite starting the playoffs unseeded, they’re right back into the semifinals as always.
There’s been one constant this fall: South Dakota State’s dominance. The Jackrabbits have won 27 straight games, and only five have been by single digits. Villanova made them sweat last week, cutting their lead to just five points early in the fourth quarter. But the Jacks immediately got a 66-yard touchdown run from Isaiah Davis, picked off a pass, forced a three-and-out and cruised.
From the start, the overall narrative for this edition of the playoffs was whether or not someone could topple SDSU. Three weeks in, that appears no more likely than it did at the beginning. Here’s more on each of the two semifinals.
No. 5 Albany (11-3) at No. 1 South Dakota State (13-0)
South Dakota State
SP+ rank: first
Playoff results to date: defeated Mercer 41-0; defeated Villanova 23-12
Title odds: 64.3% (last week: 58.4%)
UAlbany
SP+ rank: fifth
Playoff results to date: defeated Richmond 41-13; defeated Idaho 30-22
Title odds: 4.0% (last week: 3.8%)
Defense has indeed driven Albany’s first-ever semifinal run. Only one FCS opponent has scored more than 22 points on the Great Danes. The more you have to pass on them, the worse you’re going to fare. They’ve recorded 99 tackles for loss (including 50 sacks) and defended 67 passes (including 17 interceptions) in 2023; while South Dakota State has faced plenty of quality opposition this fall, the defensive end duo of Anton Juncaj and AJ Simon (combined: 43 TFLs, 27.5 sacks, 31 hurries and seven forced fumbles) is something altogether different. SDSU has an annoying “Whatever you do best, the Jacks do it better” thing going, but no one in FCS rushes the passer better than UAlbany.
That’s an amazing thing to say considering they could have also had former Great Dane and current Florida State star Jared Verse on the two-deep. Albany’s pass defense could make a major difference in this semifinal matchup … if SDSU has to pass.
The Jacks have a brilliant passing game driven by Mark Gronowski (68% completion rate, 14.5 yards per completion, 25-to-4 TD-to-INT ratio) and veteran wideouts Jadon and Jaxon Janke (combined: 91 catches, 1,470 yards, 13 TDs). But SDSU will also punch you in the mouth with Isaiah Davis (1,384 yards, 6.8 per carry), Amar Johnson (717 yards, 6.4 per carry) and the best offensive line in the subdivision until you prove you can stop them. And even if you do slow them down for a bit, you have to keep doing it: In ultra-windy conditions last week against Villanova, SDSU gained only 64 yards in the first half. They gained 279 in the second. You don’t win 27 games in a row without learning the value of remaining patient.
One of the other frustrating aspects of playing SDSU is, no matter how good your defense is, theirs is better. They’re first in defensive SP+ with a rating more than a touchdown better than the second-best D. And if you prefer more customary measures, they’re first in scoring defense and total defense, too.
Quarterback Reese Poffenbarger and the UAlbany offense have improved over the course of 2023, averaging 34.6 points and 418 yards over the last eight games. The run game has been up and down this season; Griffin Woodell and Faysal Aden are grinders, averaging 20.3 carries per game between them, but they’ve averaged just 4.7 yards per carry. It’s asking a lot for either one of them to have a huge game against this defense. But the Poffenbarger-to-Brevin Easton connection has been vital. I wrote last week that you probably aren’t going to beat SDSU without a certain number of big plays and turnovers. The Albany pass rush could theoretically provide the latter, and Eason, who’s averaged 105.4 yards per game and 24.1 yards per catch over the last eight games (including nine catches for 200 yards and three scores against Idaho last week), could provide the former.
ESPN BET projection: SDSU 33.8, UAlbany 12.8 (SDSU -21 with a 46.5 over/under)
SP+ projection: SDSU 34.6, UAlbany 12.5
This is the first ever meeting between the Jacks and Great Danes. It’s probably going to end up playing out like most of SDSU’s last 27 games have, with the Jackrabbit defense pushing its opponent behind schedule and forcing punts while the offense eventually finds a rhythm and pulls away. But while there aren’t many paths to an Albany victory, you can certainly see how one might take shape from Easton creating easy points with a couple of big catches and an excellent defense creating negative plays (and possibly turnovers). And hey, if you play in upstate New York, you are probably ready for below-freezing conditions, too. SDSU is a resounding favorite, but Albany could give itself a chance.
North Dakota State (11-3) at No. 2 Montana (12-1)
North Dakota State
SP+ rank: second
Playoff results to date: defeated Drake 66-3; defeated No. 8 Montana State 35-34 (OT); defeated South Dakota 45-17
Title odds: 24.4% (last week: 21.0%)
Montana
SP+ rank: third
Playoff results to date: defeated Delaware 49-19; defeated Furman 35-28 (OT)
Title odds: 7.3% (last week: 8.2%)
There are few moments in football better than the Rocket Ismail-style moment, where a kick or punt is flying through the air toward a great return man in a huge moment, and he does the thing everyone in the stadium is hoping he’ll do: house it.
CAN YOU BELIEVE IT! ��@bergen_junior with ANOTHER HOUSE CALL!#GoGriz pic.twitter.com/JfoRrewf4p
– Montana Griz Football (@MontanaGrizFB) December 9, 2023
Junior Bergen saved Montana’s bacon last Friday night against Furman. The junior receiver and return man began the game with a 99-yard kick return touchdown, then gave the Grizzlies a 28-21 lead in the fourth quarter with his sixth career punt return touchdown. (He also had four catches for 44 yards.) Furman tied the game with a fourth-down touchdown with 13 seconds left in regulation — the Paladins attempted a doomed two-point conversion but were saved by a false start penalty and settled for the PAT — but the Griz won with a touchdown pass and fourth-down stop in OT. Montana scored only twice in regulation thanks to two missed field goals, an interception near midfield and a dire run of four straight three-and-outs in the second half. But Bergen bought them just enough margin for error.
It would be pretty incredible if Bergen pulled off similar heroics on Saturday afternoon. Some of NDSU’s most vulnerable moments in 2023 came via special teams breakdowns, too. But in their first semifinal since 2011, the Griz should probably try to count on winning with offense and defense.
That’s much easier said than done. NDSU showed almost unprecedented vulnerability this season, losing three of six midseason games and suffering blowouts at the hands of both North Dakota and South Dakota State. UND used a kick return touchdown and a blocked punt (like I said…) to build an early lead and went an incredible 9-for-12 on third downs to keep drives moving. They led by as many as 32 before winning, 49-24. SDSU was a more mortal 6-for-13 on third downs but turned three Bison turnovers into points and used a Tucker Large punt return to score a short-field touchdown as part of a 23-0 run. The Jacks eventually cruised, 33-16.
The SDSU loss evidently flipped a switch. NDSU has looked awfully NDSU-like since, averaging 48.5 points per game over the last four. Not including sacks, the run game has averaged 6.2 yards per carry in that span, and while quarterback Cam Miller is still a bit sack-prone, NDSU has still averaged 10.1 yards per dropback (inc. sacks) in this span; more importantly, Miller hasn’t thrown an interception since the SDSU game.
Montana’s defense is based on pressure. Blitz-happy linebackers Riley Wilson and Braxton Hill have 11 sacks among 19 TFLs, and cornerback Trevin Gradney has five interceptions with six breakups. (Hill has two picks himself.) The Griz force you to respond to nonstop attacks, and that feels like playing with fire against NDSU — either Montana makes loads of TFLs and sacks Miller in key situations, or NDSU rushes for 300-plus yards.
Montana can win a defense-heavy rock fight, but can the Griz keep up in a track meet? That will depend on quarterback Clifton McDowell. His legs provided a welcome boost when he entered the starting lineup — he’s rushed for at least 65 yards seven times and went for 118 last week — and NDSU has been vulnerable to a good run game at times, allowing more than 200 rushing yards three times. But at some point McDowell will have to pass, and that’s typically when NDSU strikes. The Bison have picked off at least three passes four times this season and have 10 INTs in the last four games. NDSU’s Cole Wisniewski is basically one of the best safeties and linebackers in the country, leading the Bison in tackles while picking off eight passes. Wherever the ball goes, he materializes there. McDowell can’t make mistakes.
ESPN BET projection: NDSU 25.5, Montana 24.0
SP+ projection: NDSU 28.4, Montana 23.3
Entz’s announced departure could provide either an emotional boost or an anchor for NDSU, but on paper the Bison have slight advantages here. Was all that midseason vulnerability just a smokescreen to distract us from another inevitable NDSU-SDSU title showdown? Or does Montana have a bit more home magic to deploy?
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Astros’ Blanco having elbow surgery, done for ’25
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2 hours agoon
May 28, 2025By
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ESPN News Services
May 28, 2025, 12:22 PM ET
Houston Astros right-hander Ronel Blanco will have surgery on his right elbow and will miss the remainder of the 2025 season, the team announced Wednesday.
The starter had sought a second opinion after being placed on the injured list last week with inflammation in the elbow.
The Astros said Blanco — who is 3-4 with a 4.10 ERA, 48 strikeouts and 20 walks in nine starts this season — is anticipated to return at some point during the 2026 season.
Blanco, 31, is among a long list of starting pitchers on the injured list for the Astros. Right-hander Hayden Wesneski underwent season-ending Tommy John surgery last week, while right-hander Spencer Arrighetti has been out since April after breaking his right thumb in a batting practice mishap.
Houston is also without right-handers Luis Garcia and Cristian Javier, who are both still recovering from Tommy John surgery.
Blanco is in his fourth major league season, all with the Astros. In 2024, he finished 13-6 with a 2.80 ERA in 30 games (29 starts). He threw his only career complete game in his season debut on April 1, no-hitting the Toronto Blue Jays in a 10-0 win.
The Associated Press and Field Level Media contributed to this report.
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Renovated Belmont to host Breeders’ Cup in ’27
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3 hours agoon
May 28, 2025By
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Associated Press
May 28, 2025, 12:14 PM ET
The Breeders’ Cup world championships are returning to New York in 2027 at the rebuilt Belmont Park, following a massive renovation project to revitalize one of the most important horse racing tracks in the country.
New York Gov. Kathy Hochul, along with officials from the Breeders’ Cup and the New York Racing Association, announced Wednesday that the track on the edge of Queens and Nassau County on Long Island will stage the event in the fall two years from now.
“We wrote the governor of New York a letter in 2023 that simply said, ‘If you build it, we will come,'” Breeders’ Cup Limited president and CEO Drew Fleming said in a phone interview with The Associated Press. “And so we’re very honored to keep our word and have a wonderful Breeders’ Cup world championship here in 2027 to showcase the new development and investment in Belmont Park to our fans from across the globe.”
Keeneland in Lexington was revealed as the 2026 host.
Belmont Park was last home to the Breeders’ Cup in 2005, the fourth time in two decades after also being there in 1990, 1995 and 2001. A goal of the $455 million teardown and reconstruction was to attract the major event.
“It was always part of the plan: We weren’t going to redevelop Belmont Park without Breeders’ Cup in mind, so it was always part of the initial goals,” NYRA president and CEO David O’Rourke told the AP by phone. “Getting the championships back to New York is big from an economic point of view and probably one of the most important [things], if not the most important. It gives our trainers and horsemen a chance to compete on their home tracks. I think it’s great. It’s been over 20 years.”
Hochul said in a statement that the redevelopment is bringing thousands of jobs and $1 billion in long-term economic activity to Long Island.
“Thanks to the investments we are making at Belmont Park, the long held dream of bringing the prestigious Breeders’ Cup back to New York will soon be a reality,” Hochul said.
The Breeders’ Cup has been at a Kentucky or California track every year since 2008. Del Mar outside San Diego has it this year as a back-to-back host and for the fourth time since 2017.
Santa Anita outside Los Angeles, Keeneland and Churchill Downs in Louisville — home of the Kentucky Derby — have become the regular sites for the two-day festival featuring the best thoroughbreds in the world and tens of millions of dollars’ worth of races. It’s shifting back to the Eastern time zone for the next two years.
“California is and has always been a wonderful spot to have the Breeders’ Cup with Santa Anita Park and Del Mar, but one of the missions of the Breeders’ Cup is to grow the sport, and one of the ways we do this is hosting world championships at various venues across the United States,” Fleming said, adding that he expects the event to generate $100 million for the New York economy.
While NYRA has not announced a location for the 2026 Belmont Stakes, the third leg of the Triple Crown is set to return to its old home by 2027, after a multiyear stint at historic Saratoga Race Course in upstate New York during renovations.
With the Belmont at Belmont Park shifting back to an annual occurrence, it is possible the track known for greats like Secretariat and Seattle Slew rumbling down the stretch to the finish line with fans roaring might get back in a regular rotation.
“The best part about working for the Breeders’ Cup is that nothing is off the table,” Fleming said. “New York City has some of the finest accommodations and restaurants and entertainment in the world, so it’d be a natural fit that we would be at Belmont Park frequently.”
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NHL free agency big board: Where does Marner land? Who are the other top options?
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May 28, 2025By
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Greg WyshynskiMay 28, 2025, 07:30 AM ET
Close- Greg Wyshynski is ESPN’s senior NHL writer.
NHL teams head into this offseason with an understanding of where the salary cap is climbing over the next three seasons. It’s projected to rise to $95.5 million next season; $104 million in 2026-27; and then up to $113.5 million in 2027-28.
That could lead to more teams comfortably retaining their own players on expiring contracts. Or it could lead to those players receiving inflated offers in free agency, as a rising cap means rising chaos.
Here’s a look at the unrestricted free agent field, organized into different tiers. There are also some significant restricted free agents, too — like forwards Matthew Knies (Maple Leafs), JJ Peterka (Sabres) and Marco Rossi (Wild); and defensemen Evan Bouchard (Oilers), Noah Dobson (Islanders) and K’Andre Miller (Rangers). It’s anyone’s guess if last season’s offer sheet fun was an anomaly or the new normal.
The contract terms and average annual contract values are courtesy of PuckPedia. In the case of players whose salaries were retained in transactions, we’re listing the full average annual value of their contracts.
Which players are you hoping your team signs this offseason?
The free agent who will earn the most attention this offseason.
Age: 28 | 2024-25 cap hit: $10,903,000
Marner’s noncommittal answers at Toronto’s postseason media availability did little to discourage the notion that the winger — who has played his entire nine-year career with his childhood team that drafted him fourth overall in 2015 — is done in Toronto. It might be time for a change: Blaming Marner for the franchise’s playoff failures has become an annual rite, and he’ll easily break the bank in unrestricted free agency. The lure to leave has never been stronger.
Over the past five seasons, six players have more points than Marner (450 in 357 games): Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen, Artemi Panarin and David Pastrnak. Marner has the fewest goals scored (138) of that group, but he’s significantly better defensively than most of that lot: His 14 shorthanded points in that span tie him with Aleksander Barkov, who is currently collecting Selke Trophies like they’re Pokémon.
Marner’s points-per-game rate over the past five regular seasons is 1.26. It dips to 0.93 in the playoffs during that span. Although he has 42 points in 48 games, Marner has been called “passive” and much worse in the playoffs. Former NHL player Jordan Schmaltz said Marner bails out of physical plays in the postseason like he has “a parachute” on his back.
All of this is to say that Marner is a complicated acquisition. The skill is unquestionable. The will, when the games matter most, has been questioned annually. Who wants that on their roster, and what is it worth?
It was reported at one point that the Leafs were considering a deal for eight years and $13.5 million per season, which would have made him the team’s highest-paid player annually over Auston Matthews ($13.25 million). Mikko Rantanen, who would have been the belle of the free agent ball had he not signed with the Dallas Stars, is making $12 million annually over eight years in a state with no income tax, for context.
The Carolina Hurricanes tried to acquire Marner for Rantanen but were rebuffed by the player, who had a full no-movement clause — and a son who would be born in May, making that decision completely understandable. They’ve got the cap space, and the need, to be interested in Marner again.
Teams on the rise such as the Anaheim Ducks, Chicago Blackhawks and Utah Mammoth have been mentioned for Marner — if he still wants some of that Original Six flavor, playing in the Windy City while threading passes to Connor Bedard wouldn’t hurt.
Teams that love to make their offseason splashes such as the Florida Panthers and the Vegas Golden Knights have been speculated, as have the Los Angeles Kings and New York Islanders who could look to do something big. There has even been talk about a reunion with former Leafs general manager Kyle Dubas at the Pittsburgh Penguins — heck, if the rap on Marner is that he can’t figure out playoff hockey, you could do a lot worse than having Sidney Crosby as your tutor for a couple of seasons.
All of this is assuming he leaves Toronto. While it certainly looks like that’ll happen, let’s all remember the golden rule of NHL free agency: His stuff is there.
Tier 2: The impact players
These are established players who can play key, immediate roles for a team.
Age: 29 | 2024-25 cap hit: $4.425 million
Bennett is essentially the anti-Marner: The majority of his value is derived from his win-at-all-costs postseason play, with the “costs” typically being the physical wellbeing of opponents. Bennett is a dependable regular-season performer, as he had 25 goals and 26 assists this season for the Panthers to go along with 90 penalty minutes.
He’s going to be paid handsomely this summer. Perhaps by someone looking to have him be the last piece of their championship puzzle; or perhaps as a Stanley Cup-winning teacher who can instruct a middling team how to take the next step.
The assumption is that someone is going to price the Panthers out of Bennett, but let’s remember two things here: He loves playing for Florida, and GM Bill Zito knows what an essential ingredient Bennett has been in their postseason success — and that Bennett comprises a dynamic duo with star Matthew Tkachuk. The two sides have engaged in contract talks during the season.
Age: 28 | 2024-25 cap hit: $6.65 million
There’s probably more interest outside of Vancouver in signing Boeser than within the Canucks organization, which has sent mixed signals about retaining him. He is one season removed from a 40-goal campaign and has eased concerns about his ability to remain in the lineup for a full season.
There’s been heavy speculation that the Burnsville, Minn., native could find his way to the Wild, but don’t count out potential suitors such as the Hurricanes and New Jersey Devils.
Age: 29 | 2024-25 cap hit: $6 million
Jets GM Kevin Cheveldayoff has done an impressive job dispelling the “no one wants to sign in Winnipeg” accusation, having gotten Mark Scheifele, Connor Hellebuyck and Neal Pionk to re-up in the past few years. Ehlers is his latest test.
“We’ll put our best foot forward with him to try to make our case to be a unique Jet-for-life-type player,” Cheveldayoff said.
A consistent point producer, Ehlers put his best foot forward toward a free agent payday with his best points per 60 minutes average (3.5) in five years. He is an offensive force — when he is in the lineup, as Ehlers has played over 70 games just once in the past four seasons, and he has missed time in the playoffs, as well.
Age: 29 | 2024-25 cap hit: $7.5 million
The common thinking when the Panthers acquired Seth Jones from the Blackhawks was that the team would let No. 1 defenseman Aaron Ekblad walk as a free agent. But Zito has been adamant that the team could still retain the career Panther, even with Jones adding $7 million to their blue line and with Florida having other contractual business to address (like a potential new deal for Bennett).
With options such as Jakob Chychrun having re-signed ahead of free agency (eight years, $72 million with Washington), Ekblad is easily the best big-name D-man available — and one with a Stanley Cup ring, no less. He had 33 points with an average ice time of 23:31 in 56 games this season, which was truncated by a 20-game suspension for violating the terms of the NHL/NHLPA performance-enhancing substances program.
Age: 37 | 2024-25 cap hit: $6.125 million
There’s been no better advertisement for the star winger’s value than what he has done with the Panthers after they acquired him from the Bruins. He has brought a veteran tenacity to their bottom six, while occasionally popping up to play with Aleksander Barkov. He has produced, too, with 13 points in 16 playoff games.
As coach Paul Maurice noted, the Panthers needed a player as vocal and media-friendly as Marchand to take the pressure off some of the more serene talents on the team.
If he doesn’t remain in Sunrise, there will be no shortage of teams interested in adding his winning pedigree — although salary and term will be the trick in signing him. Let’s face it: There wouldn’t be a next chapter more interesting than Marchand signing with the Maple Leafs, the team he has tormented for years — but he has recently admitted to cheering for the Leafs as a kid growing up in Halifax.
Age: 33 | 2024-25 cap hit: $6 million
Nelson was one of several players the Avalanche added in their trade deadline shopping spree that couldn’t get them past Dallas in the opening round. Nelson had six goals and seven assists in 19 games for the Avs in the regular season but went scoreless in four of their seven playoff games against Dallas.
Was the fit good enough for both that he seeks to extend in Colorado, or are there other destinations for Nelson to bring his variety of skills and get some extra contract term in the process?
Age: 34 | 2024-25 cap hit: $11 million
While Mitch Marner was noncommittal about his future in Toronto, Tavares did everything but belt out a version of “And I Am Telling You I’m Not Going” from “Dreamgirls” after their playoff elimination.
“I’ve expressed my desire to stay and wanting to make it work,” the veteran center said.
Do the Leafs bring him back at the right price point, or is Tavares another roster sacrifice made in the name of changing the mix after their playoff disappointment? One intriguing potential destination: Utah, which could use both a big-name free agent signing and a veteran presence in the middle.
Tier 3: The best bets
These players have shown they’re worth the investment.
Age: 34 | 2024-2025 cap hit: $3 million
Duchene has found a fit in Dallas, and Dallas found a fit in Duchene. He was one of the best value signings last offseason, inking a one-year extension worth $3 million before tallying 82 points in 82 games, his best offensive season since 2021-22 with Nashville. His playoff output through 16 games was less exceptional with just one goal and five assists.
Given the lack of unrestricted free agent veteran scorers with his credentials, there could be temptation to check how green the grass is elsewhere. But it’s possible Duchene is following that late-career path of other veterans: Taking a series of one-year deals to remain with a team he likes.
Age: 29 | 2024-2025 cap hit: $5.875 million
Gavrikov just completed a two-year deal that he signed with general manager Rob Blake in 2023. The wrinkle here: Blake is no longer the GM, with Ken Holland now at the helm in Los Angeles.
Gavrikov had a strong defensive season with the Kings and chipped in 30 points (five goals, 25 assists), which was the second-highest total of his six-season career. He was solid when paired with either Mikey Anderson or Jordan Spence.
All of this it say that the Kings should seek to retain Gavrikov. But if his new deal is too rich for what Holland wants to do with the rest of this roster, other teams will gladly add him to their blue line.
Age: 37 | 2024-2025 cap hit: $6.5 million
Barring something unforeseen, Giroux should extend his relationship with the Senators before free agency hits. He had 50 points in 81 games this past season, his third with Ottawa, which made the playoffs for the first time in eight seasons.
There’s no reason to believe he won’t still be a Senator next season, but if he shakes loose, he has enough offensive pop left to help someone.
Age: 33 | 2024-2025 cap hit: $5,166,666
He was coveted at the trade deadline as a quintessential checking center with Stanley Cup championship experience. Gourde ended up going back to the Lightning from the Seattle Kraken, for whom he tallied 14 points in 21 games but was a nonfactor in five playoff games.
GM Julien BriseBois has said the team acquired Gourde with the idea of keeping him beyond this season. But as Steven Stamkos will attest, that usually means it’ll happen based on the Lightning’s economics, which might not sync with Gourde’s.
Age: 33 | 2024-2025 cap hit: $5 million
One of several great moves made by Stars GM Jim Nill this season, Granlund was rescued from last place San Jose, for which he posted 45 points in 52 games. Granlund had 21 points in 31 games for Dallas then nine in 16 playoff games while skating on the “Finnish Mafia” line with Mikko Rantanen and Roope Hintz.
Someone is probably going to overpay for Granlund, whose uptick in goal scoring has coincided with pending free agency. But he has produced points wherever he has played (Pittsburgh excluded).
Age: 34 | 2024-2025 cap hit: $5 million
Palmieri offers new Islanders general manager Mathieu Darche one of his first challenges. It’s clear that former GM Lou Lamoriello wanted to extend the winger, hanging on to him at the trade deadline. There’s virtue to that: Palmieri registered 30 goals and 24 goals over the past two seasons, and offense isn’t exactly in abundance on the Islanders’ roster.
That said, it’s high time for New York to turn over the roster Lamoriello built to diminishing returns, and Palmieri has been there since 2021.
Age: 28 | 2024-2025 cap hit: $6.75 million
Provorov is a good skater who can play on the power play and the penalty kill while munching considerable minutes (23:21 per game). He’s a very solid puck mover who has elite puck-retrieval skills. If the Blue Jackets retain him, he can be the veteran anchor for their second pairing behind Zach Werenski.
They hung onto him at the trade deadline, and general manager Don Waddell said he wants to sign him this summer. If Provorov hits the open market, he won’t be the only GM with that aim.
Tier 4: The best values
Under-the-radar gems, analytics darlings and difference-makers with low-cost contracts.
Age: 27 | 2024-25 cap hit: $1.25 million
This isn’t the first time Beauvillier has been in this tier, but his season with the Penguins and the Capitals underscored how valuable he can be on a budget contract, especially his six points in 10 playoff games with the Caps in their brief playoff run.
Strong underlying numbers, good output and still only 27 until next month.
Age: 31 | 2024-25 cap hit: $1 million
If it wasn’t for that other Connor stealing all the attention in Edmonton, perhaps more people would have appreciated the regular season Connor Brown had for the Oilers — 13 goals and 17 assists in 82 games, skating to a plus-9 in 14:01 of average ice time per game — on a steal of a contract.
It took his playoff outburst — five goals and three assists through 14 games — to really grab some attention:
A hard-working, pace-setting player.
Age: 36 | 2024-25 cap hit: $2.25 million
“Daddy” had an impressive walk year with 20 goals and 20 assists in 80 games. He saw similar averages in the first year of his two-year deal with Dallas. He is never getting back to the offensive numbers he posted in his prime, but at the right average annual value, Dadonov can be an offensive strength in the regular season.
Age: 33 | 2024-25 cap hit: $3.15 million
The former Anaheim Duck was a trade-deadline pickup for New Jersey who was pressed into more service than expected due to injuries to the Devils’ defensive corps in the playoffs. In their five-game series against Carolina, Dumoulin averaged 29:21 per game in ice time, skating over 36 minutes in two overtime games and playing well in the process.
The two-time Cup winner with Pittsburgh still can bring it in the postseason.
Age: 26 | 2024-25 cap hit: $2.5 million
Yes, that’s Dante Fabbro of the Why on earth did the Nashville Predators put Dante Fabbro on waivers last season? fame. The Preds’ loss and the Jackets’ gain, as Fabbro had 26 points in 62 games, skating to a plus-23 with Columbus as Zach Werenski‘s partner.
The underlying numbers reaffirm he was great on both ends of the ice. Obviously, a lot of that is playing with a Norris Trophy finalist, but Fabbro earned his time with Werenski.
Age: 31 | 2024-25 cap hit: $2.75 million
The former Boston Bruins defenseman had a quietly strong season for the Penguins with one goal but 39 assists — 24 of them at even strength. Defense was never his calling card, but offensively, he was solid in traditional stats and analytics.
Age: 29 | 2024-25 cap hit: $1.075 million
Wait, a former Buffalo Sabres forward being acquired by the Golden Knights and finding his game again? Never seen that before …
Anyway, Olofsson had 15 goals and 14 assists on a bargain-basement “show me” contract. He has demonstrated in the past that, when healthy, he has a ton of offensive upside.
Age: 34/2024-25 cap hit $5 million
There’s a reason the Golden Knights ran it back with Smith at the trade deadline. He is a perfectively serviceable depth forward who is going to produce decently on offense and can contribute on both special teams.
He is fine if cast in the right role — that is, not a top-line winger — as the Rangers discovered.
Age: 29 | 2024-25 cap hit: $1.6 million
Suter is teetering on the brink of a potential overpay, after setting career highs in goals (25) and points (46) in a contract year with the Canucks. But his goal production has been steady in limited roles throughout his career, and he does enough away from the puck — according to the analytics — that even a dip in last season’s numbers won’t make a multiplier on his cap hit regrettable.
Tier 5: The boom-or-busts
Players who have the ability to justify the investment or whose contracts could eventually become an eyesore on PuckPedia.
Age: 35 | 2024-2025 cap hit: $9.5 million
Benn signed his eight-year contract in July 2016, but it somehow feels much longer ago than that. Perhaps because of his 16-year tenure with Dallas; when Benn was a rookie, Mike Modano was still on the Stars. But also because this contract was a topic of debate from the moment it was signed.
While Benn’s most productive offensive days are behind him, he has still managed 49 points in 80 games this season in a limited role; he has been under 16 minutes in average ice time for the past three seasons.
GM Nill said Benn will be a Dallas Star for life, but the two decided to have this season play out before talking extension. Benn’s value is in his leadership, physicality and intangibles. But Dallas or whichever team signs him needs to tread lightly in AAV and term here.
Age: 40 | 2024-2025 cap hit: $8 million
The beard, the ranch, the mysterious bag filled with mysterious items. There are few NHL players who have inspired the kind of lore that Brent Burns has. He also used to inspire a lot of offense, but that production has fallen off steeply over the past two seasons — from 61 points to 43 points to 29 points in 82 games this season, the lowest average of points per 60 minutes of his career.
Is this run the end of the line for Burns? He hasn’t said. But there’s always going to be a market for a puck-moving defenseman in the NHL who can log 20 minutes per game.
Age: 29 | 2024-2025 cap hit: $2 million
Donato had an all-timer walk-year bump this past season, setting new career highs in goals (31) and assists (31) in 80 games with the Blackhawks. He was talking to Chicago about a new deal around the trade deadline, and the Hawks opted not to move him. That’s an indication they see him as part of their group moving forward. Having chemistry with Connor Bedard probably doesn’t hurt.
The questions now: How does one quantify that in a contract? And can Donato repeat the feat in a noncontract year?
Age: 30 | 2024-2025 cap hit: $2.5 million
Drouin recaptured his offensive game with Colorado, which acquired him with the encouragement of his junior hockey teammate Nathan MacKinnon. It was a heartwarming story. Less so was the fact that, once again, the injury bug munched on him this past season.
He had 37 points in 43 games, showing that when he’s in the lineup he can be effective. Operative phrase: when he’s in the lineup.
Age: 36 | 2024-2025 cap hit: $4 million
We almost put “Showtime” in the “best bets” category given how he outperformed his incentive-laden, one-year contract with Detroit last season by tallying 21 goals and 38 points in 72 games. He played well with longtime linemate Alex DeBrincat and responded well when Detroit hired Todd McLellan to take over as coach.
The issue with Kane is on the other side of the puck, where he was analytically the weakest defensive forward on the Red Wings.
Age: 29 | 2024-2025 cap hit: $5.5 million
Kuzmenko fit really nicely with the Kings after they acquired him from the Flyers. He seemed to be the player Anze Kopitar and Adrian Kempe had been waiting for to join their line. Assuming new GM Ken Holland sees it the same way, it’s going to be intriguing to find out how that is valued in regard to AAV and term.
If Holland doesn’t, then Kuzmenko will be onto a fifth team in three seasons, tantalized by his offensive pop and power-play prowess.
Age: 27 | 2024-2025 cap hit: $4.5 million
The Rangers traded the 27-year-old to the Avalanche at the trade deadline. He’s a solid defensive defenseman who could complement a puck-moving partner, like he did in New York with Adam Fox.
But at this point in Lindgren’s NHL career, it’s practically predestined that he is going to either play through injuries or miss some time because of them.
Age: 33 | 2024-2025 cap hit: $7.75 million
Orlov surprised many the last time he was a free agent by signing a short-term, high-AAV contract with the Hurricanes. He had a slight uptick in offensive production this season but remained just above replacement level as a defender. Orlov has been especially rough in his own end in the playoffs.
While the Canes could let him walk, there’s likely value in keeping Orlov around as a partner and mentor to rookie Alexander Nikishin, who looks like something special.
Age: 33 | 2024-2025 cap hit: $3 million
What was expected to be one of the best value signings in the NHL last offseason never really worked out that way for Skinner and Edmonton. He had 16 goals and 13 assists in 72 games, skating just 12:60 on average. He did appear in one playoff game against the Kings, his first postseason action of his 15-year career.
Skinner is two seasons removed from a 35-goal campaign with Buffalo.
Age: 37 | 2022-23 cap hit: $10.5 million
We know what kind of player Toews was for the Blackhawks: a Selke Trophy-winning captain who won three Stanley Cups and a Conn Smythe, one who was still putting up numbers (31 points in 53 games) deep into the Chicago rebuild.
But we don’t know what kind of player he is now, having last appeared in a game back in April 2023 before stepping away from the NHL for health considerations and personal growth.
Toews has expressed an interest in coming back to play again. That has led to speculation about a comeback with everyone from his hometown Winnipeg Jets to the championship-starved Maple Leafs to the Oilers, for whom his old GM Stan Bowman now works.
Tier 6: The goalies
The few, the proud, the available goaltenders
Age: 34 | 2024-25 cap hit: $3.85 million
Allen outplayed Jacob Markstrom in the regular season, with a higher save percentage (.908), more goals saved above expected (8.75) and just as many shutouts (four). The Devils like their goaltending, and GM Tom Fitzgerald has discussed negotiating to bring Allen back. But given the other options on the free agent goaltending market, someone might go higher than the Devils are willing to go.
Age: 29 | 2024-25 cap hit: $3.4 million
The former starter for the Colorado Avalanche, Georgiev was sent to the Sharks in the Mackenzie Blackwood trade. Things weren’t all the better for him there, as Georgiev had minus-13.7 goals saved above expected in 31 games for San Jose.
GM Mike Grier already told the goaltender he won’t be back with the Sharks next season.
Age: 32 | 2024-25 cap hit: $900,000
One of five goalies the Wings used this season, Lyon played 30 games for Detroit with an .896 save percentage and a 14-9-1 record. He was just under average in goals saved above expected at minus-1.63.
Age: 28 | 2024-25 cap hit: $1.8 million
Signed in a cost-effective deal as a backup to Adin Hill, Samsonov had a second straight season with a sub-.900 save percentage, along with a minus-7.85 goals saved above expected.
Age: 29 | 2024-25 cap hit: $3.4 million
A former starter with the Devils, Vanecek split time between the Sharks and Panthers this season, and he wasn’t particularly great for either of them.
Age: 27 | 2024-25 cap hit: $2.2 million
Dustin Wolf‘s incredible rookie season was supported by 30 games of perfectly average goaltending from Vladar, who remains a reliable tandem goalie if not much more.
Tier 7: The spackle
The other free agents available who don’t neatly fall into these tiers.
Mason Appleton, C, Winnipeg Jets
Cam Atkinson, RW, Tampa Bay Lightning
Joel Armia, LW/RW, Montreal Canadiens
Nathan Bastian, RW, New Jersey Devils
Nick Bjugstad, C, Utah Mammoth
Justin Brazeau, RW, Minnesota Wild
Cody Ceci, D, Dallas Stars
Tony DeAngelo, D, New York Islanders
Calvin de Haan, D, New York Rangers
Christian Dvorak, C, Montreal Canadiens
Lars Eller, C, Washington Capitals
Robby Fabbri, F, Anaheim Ducks
Radek Faksa, C, St. Louis Blues
Anton Forsberg, G, Ottawa Senators
Trent Frederic, C, Edmonton Oilers
Adam Gaudette, RW, Ottawa Senators
Tanner Jeannot, F, Los Angeles Kings
Kasperi Kapanen, RW, Edmonton Oilers
John Klingberg, D, Edmonton Oilers
Luke Kunin, F, Columbus Blue Jackets
Sean Kuraly, C, Columbus Blue Jackets
Oliver Kylington, D, Anaheim Ducks
Andrew Mangiapane, F, Washington Capitals
Anthony Mantha, RW, Calgary Flames
Brock McGinn, LW, Anaheim Ducks
Gustav Nyquist, RW, Minnesota Wild
Max Pacioretty, LW, Toronto Maple Leafs
Nick Perbix, D, Tampa Bay Lightning
Corey Perry, RW, Edmonton Oilers
Jeff Petry, D, Detroit Red Wings
Taylor Raddysh, D, Washington Capitals
Jack Roslovic, F, Carolina Hurricanes
Jan Rutta, D, San Jose Sharks
Brandon Saad, LW, Vegas Golden Knights
Nate Schmidt, D, Florida Panthers
Brendan Smith, D, Dallas Stars
Nico Sturm, C, Florida Panthers
Brandon Tanev, LW, Winnipeg Jets
James van Riemsdyk, LW, Columbus Blue Jackets
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