‘He knows what he’s looking for’: How Yamamoto became baseball’s most coveted free agent
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Jeff Passan, ESPN
YOSHINOBU YAMAMOTO’S BAG of tricks is an actual bag.
Inside it, he carries a yoga mat, wooden blocks, tiny soccer balls and mini-javelins. When he’s ready, the 25-year-old Yamamoto lays out his yoga mat, arches himself into a backbend and pretzels his body with the precision of a contortionist. He lifts himself into headstands and corkscrews his hips and legs. He pushes up into handstands and walks on his palms toward a wall, against which he can lean and balance on one hand. He steadies himself on the blocks to get the feel for his body’s positioning, and when he’s done with that he stands up and chucks the size 1 soccer balls into a wall to warm up his right arm. Then he heads to the field to fling the javelins distances inconceivable to his teammates, who try to replicate the practice and chuckle at their comparative ineptitude.
None of this is the typical training regimen for a pitcher — for most athletes, really, but particularly not in baseball, a paint-by-numbers sort of sport that sneers at anything out of the ordinary. There is room for independent thinkers, for those who dare try something different, but it comes with a prerequisite: greatness.
Yamamoto has earned the right to carry the black duffel — not only is he a great pitcher, but arguably the greatest ever in Nippon Professional Baseball. He won three straight MVP awards and three consecutive Sawamura Awards, Japan’s equivalent of the Cy Young. Now he is the best free agent in Major League Baseball, the one inspiring a bidding war among the game’s most moneyed teams that’s expected to conclude before the new year and perhaps as early as this week.
At 5-foot-10 and 176 pounds, Yamamoto will be among the smallest starting pitchers in MLB when he debuts next season. That all of his strength training comes from these tools — Yamamoto does not lift weights — confounds the baseball establishment. But then he throws a baseball and the questions melt away because few in the world can marry a fastball that runs up to 99 mph with a splitter that drops like a hypercoaster and a curveball that breaks 5½ feet. To impart that sort of force on a baseball at that size is the domain of a select few: Pedro Martinez and Tim Lincecum, winners of five Cy Youngs between them.
Everything Yamamoto does is in service of one goal: moving with purpose. As MLB teams have learned since the Orix Buffaloes posted him Nov. 20, paving his way to sign with a major league team for hundreds of millions of dollars, Yamamoto’s meticulous, disciplined approach is not limited to the baseball field. Executives who have met with Yamamoto admire his preparedness. For years, he has awaited this moment. He peppered his Orix teammates who had played in the big leagues with questions about MLB. He overhauled his delivery to eliminate a weakness that could be exploited here. This year, he sent his best friend, who serves as his assistant, to Toronto to take English classes, travel to major league cities across the United States and collate information that would better inform his ultimate decision.
“He knew what he was getting himself into going into the season,” said Lars Nootbaar, the St. Louis Cardinals outfielder who befriended Yamamoto when playing for Team Japan during the World Baseball Classic. “Publicly and amongst friends, he is the nicest, most caring person there is. But underneath that, he’s a stone-cold killer. When he walks in a room, he’s not just walking in. He knows what he’s looking for. He takes notes on everything.”
JACOB WAGUESPACK SIGNED with Orix before the 2022 season, and soon learned his new teammate Yamamoto had won his first Sawamura the previous season. Waguespack, who played with the Toronto Blue Jays for two seasons, stands 6-foot-6, weighs 235 pounds and sits around 92 mph with his fastball. How someone 8 inches shorter and 60 pounds lighter possessed the arsenal of MLB’s best aces made no sense.
“I didn’t know he was that much of the real deal until I got there,” Waguespack said. “And then I was like, holy s—. The hype is real.”
Following his first season in Japan, Waguespack saw Yamamoto as one of his closest friends on the team. He watched Yamamoto walk around Osaka, where the Buffaloes play, with a hat and a mask to avoid hordes of fans swarming him. He knew Yamamoto rarely traveled without his tiny, fluffy dog, Mikan, named after Japan’s famous mandarin orange whose peel nearly matches the pup’s fur color. And he watched his arm just keep getting better.
The scouting report on Yamamoto reads something like this: hyperathletic, elite flexibility, unlikely strength, ultrafast arm, exceptional movement patterns. His fastball sits at 95 mph, though velocity alone doesn’t begin to describe why the pitch so flummoxes hitters. Yamamoto releases the ball from a low arm slot and has exceptional carry on his fastball, meaning its pure backspin causes it to drop less than a batter expects, so it looks as if it were rising. His splitter is every bit as dangerous as Kodai Senga‘s vaunted ghost fork, his curve out of the Adam Wainwright book of bend, his slider and cutter rarely used but each potentially a weapon against MLB hitters.
Since transitioning from the bullpen to Orix’s rotation as a 20-year-old in 2019, Yamamoto has posted a 1.65 ERA over 820⅓ innings. Batters have hit .189 against him and struck out in more than 27% of plate appearances. His walk rate is minuscule (2.0 per nine innings), his home run rate silly (0.32 per nine) and his win-loss record impressive (65-26). In the past three seasons, Yamamoto has ERAs of 1.39, 1.68 and 1.21. He faced 636 batters this year and yielded two homers — all with a brand-new delivery.
“He comes to camp [in 2023] with a new windup, and it’s like, dude, are you s—ting me?” Waguespack said. “He felt like he needed more momentum to the plate. The game was so easy to him, he felt like he could get better at one thing, and he did it.”
Gone was Yamamoto’s leg lift, replaced by a slide step to the plate. Not a typical out-of-the-stretch slide step, though. Yamamoto still started in a traditional windup, only to burst toward home plate — in a fashion that’s almost jarring, simply because no other pitcher does it — with his lead leg barely off the ground. Yamamoto’s clearest weakness, scouts had observed, was keeping runners at bay. He had long been too slow to the plate. After the change, he allowed four stolen bases all season, a quarter of what he had given up in 2022.
Yamamoto was moving with a dual purpose, and his athleticism eased the evolution. His new delivery called for more explosiveness, and rather than achieve that through added bulk, he remained steadfast in his ways, relying on a movement guru — he goes by Yata Sensei, and one source familiar with his work called him a kinetics expert — to design his training program.
“Over here, everyone puts such an emphasis on lifting weights, getting big, getting strong,” said Jacob Nix, who played for the San Diego Padres before joining Orix this year. “And over there, they stretch and they throw. These guys long toss almost every day. Their light days, they’re still going out 200-plus feet. It’s a totally different style of baseball and training than we do here.”
Added Nootbaar: “It is definitely unique — not the norm here. It’s not a lot of weight-bearing. It almost feels like the Tom Brady pliability, flexibility, elasticity sort of thing. He’s adding strength in the positions he’s getting in, but he’s always making sure he’s moving at a top level.”
For all of Yamamoto’s popularity, nobody appreciates the way he throws as much as his peers. Even as he moves at high rates of speed, his head remains remarkably still throughout his delivery, eyes toward the plate. When his front foot strikes the ground, his right arm is vertical — “in the right spot on every pitch,” Waguespack said — and his hips still closed, ready to fire and carry his arm for the ride.
This winter in Los Angeles, Cleveland Guardians reliever Eli Morgan and Minnesota Twins starter Joe Ryan have worked out alongside Yamamoto and marveled at his abilities. Yamamoto, along with a catcher, his best friend and a trainer, sits in a circle with them and they stretch their hips. The soccer balls appear, as do the javelins. When Yamamoto starts playing catch — from a variety of different positions: step-ins, modified crow hops, his new windup — and unleashes his four-seam fastball, Morgan can’t help but gawk.
“It’s the carry he gets on the ball,” Morgan said. “As someone who throws a four-seamer myself, that’s the goal. Get the ball to your partner on a frozen rope.”
Like everyone who sees Yamamoto, Morgan came away a believer. He’s 5-foot-10, too, and he knows it’s easy for teams to get hung up on things, like height. Yamamoto is also facing questions about adjusting from pitching one day a week in Japan to every fifth day in MLB or how he’ll handle a ball with lower seams and less tack or how the looping curve will play in a league where hitters pray to see one upon which they can prey. All these concerns are valid. They’re also not enough to stop the coming frenzy.
WHEN YAMAMOTO’S INTENTION to join MLB crystallized earlier this year, executives started guessing what it would cost to sign him. Because he’s 25, Yamamoto is no longer considered an international amateur and limited by shallow signing-bonus pools. Likewise, because he’s 25, he is hitting free agency at an age no pitcher — particularly not an elite one — reaches the open market. The first wave of guesses clocked in around $175 million. By the time free agency started, teams figured the bidding would start at $200 million. In recent weeks, it has jumped to $250 million. And recently, multiple reports suggested teams already had offered Yamamoto deals in excess of $300 million.
Those reports, sources said, are inaccurate. Multiple high-ranking officials trying to sign Yamamoto told ESPN that teams were asked to give a preliminary bid at the start of the process to ensure they were serious — but not necessarily in the neighborhood of where the deal is likely to land. Since then, those officials say, his agent, Joel Wolfe, has not solicited a new round of bids. Some teams, sources said, were interested in talking dollars recently but were asked not to do so yet; the expectation is that teams will start proposing contract terms as early as Monday.
Yamamoto’s meetings have been with a who’s who of big-market teams. Among the visitors to see him pitch in Japan this year were Los Angeles Dodgers president Andrew Friedman, New York Yankees general manager Brian Cashman, San Francisco Giants president Farhan Zaidi and Chicago Cubs president Jed Hoyer. Less than two weeks ago, New York Mets owner Steve Cohen and president David Stearns flew to Japan for dinner with Yamamoto and his mother. They all wanted to see up close what they’d long heard from afar: Yamamoto is special well beyond the otherworldly numbers he puts up annually, and sojourning halfway around the world to indicate the seriousness of their interest was a small price.
Since Yamamoto came to the U.S. this winter, among those reported to have entertained him are the Philadelphia Phillies, Dodgers, Giants and Red Sox, along with the Mets and Yankees twice each — which will only fuel the talk of a $300 million deal. The question is whether it reaches that number before or after the inclusion of the posting fee, which, for a $250 million contract, would be $39.4 million, or, at $300 million, would be $46.9 million.
The overall dollar figure also will depend on Yamamoto’s priorities. Because of his age, he could sign a seven-year deal and hit free agency again at 32. He could target a 10-year contract but request an opt-out after the fourth season and be back on the market at 29. Teams could try to lock him up to a lifetime deal — a dozen years or more — that would dampen the competitive-balance-tax hit by lowering the average annual value of the contract.
What’s clear is that, like with his countryman and WBC teammate Shohei Ohtani, the power to dictate terms is in Yamamoto’s hands. For the concerns about moving to MLB, he need only point to Ohtani, Mets starter Kodai Senga and others whose moves to MLB went off with only minor hitches. Even with a free agent market that still has National League Cy Young winner Blake Snell and a trade market featuring Cy Young winners Corbin Burnes and Shane Bieber along with Dylan Cease, Yamamoto is the clear top choice of baseball’s biggest spenders.
All of it tickles Nootbaar. Even if the Cardinals are on the outside looking in, he feels a kinship with Yamamoto that dates to the WBC. Nootbaar was born and raised in California but joined Samurai Japan because his mom, Kumiko, grew up in the prefecture next to Tokyo. At first, Nootbaar said, the language barrier felt like an impediment — something Yamamoto noticed. He invited Nootbaar to dinner with the team’s young stars — right-handers Roki Sasaki and Hiroto Takahashi, left-hander Hiroya Miyagi and third baseman Munetaka Murakami — along with Ippei Mizuhara, Ohtani’s interpreter.
“Everything they did meant so much,” Nootbaar said. “They were doing it for me. But they were also doing it for the team. And that’s why as he goes through this process, I know he’s going to make the right choice. He’s concerned about the right things in his life.”
Wherever Yamamoto lands, he’ll pack his stuff — including his bag — and head off to the best baseball league in the world, the truest test of how good he really is. Whatever happens when he arrives, if it’s anything like how he handles the rest of his life, it will be purposeful — and great.
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Ryan S. Clark
DALLAS — Imagine having a career that’s so strong that you’re not even aware that your next goal further enhances your Hall of Fame résumé.
That’s Corey Perry at the moment — and here’s why. His five goals during the 2025 playoffs have placed him in a tie for the second-most goals among the Edmonton Oilers. It further reinforces the narrative that the Oilers might be the deepest of the four remaining teams in the Stanley Cup playoffs.
It does something else too. Although each of his five goals has come with its own sense of significance, Perry’s next playoff goal will be even more special, because he’ll be tied with the legendary Jean Béliveau for the most postseason goals by a player in their age-39 season, according to QuantHockey.
“I think it’s just a love for the game. That’s why I want to play the game for as long as I can,” Perry said. “Once this game passes you by, it’s over, it’s done. There’s no coming back and I’ll move onto something else. That’s why what I want to do is play hockey, have fun and just be part of something.”
Postseasons create champions, challengers — and those who wish they could be either one. They create nostalgia for those who have won a title and are seeking another, and yearning for those who have yet to lift a Stanley Cup.
This particular postseason has provided Perry with the opportunity to grab one more before he eventually calls it a career. He is one of just 30 players that is part of the Triple Gold Club: winning a Stanley Cup, an Olympic Gold medal and the IIHF Men’s World Championship.
While this is still technically his age-39 season, he did turn 40 back on May 16. That makes him the second-oldest player still remaining in the playoffs, behind Carolina Hurricanes defenseman Brent Burns.
Perry made his NHL debut on Oct. 5, 2005. He scored his first career goal five days later against the Oilers. He has since gone on to score 447 more, register more than 900 points and added a Hart Trophy as regular-season MVP, in a career that is either the same age or older than current young NHL stars such as Connor Bedard, Macklin Celebrini and Will Smith.
The notion that Perry’s career is now old enough to play in the NHL adds to the discussion about how and why he is able to perform at such a high level at a time in which more teams are trying to get younger.
“He’s been around so long that he understands that you need to find a role,” Oilers defenseman Troy Stecher said. “He won a Hart Trophy when he was in Anaheim, and he was the best player in the league then. Anyone coming here understands that [Connor McDavid] and [Leon Draisaitl] are probably going to get the majority of power-play time and offensive draws.
“I think with being the player he is and being around for so long, he’s done such a good job of finding a role and excelling in that role. Not just accepting it, but thriving in it.”
OPTIONS ARE EVERYTHING in the postseason. Possessing as many of them as possible enhances a team’s chances of winning.
Oilers coach Kris Knoblauch explained that the veteran winger provides the team with additional line combinations because of his versatility. He can be used on the fourth line or the top line, which is a prime example of how the Oilers have tapped into their depth to reach consecutive conference finals.
That’s when something else becomes clear: Playing Perry alongside Draisaitl and McDavid gives the Oilers three Hart Trophy winners on a single line.
It’s a distinction that no other active lineup in the NHL can claim.
“Throughout the playoffs, we’ve moved him around the lineup with Leon and Connor or just with Leon or with [Mattias] Janmark,” Knoblauch said. “Whatever position he’s been in, whether it’s the first or fourth line, he’s been able to give us quality minutes.”
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Corey Perry gives Oilers 2-0 lead with his second goal
Corey Perry scores his second goal of the first period to give the Oilers a 2-0 lead over the Golden Knights.
A player doesn’t get to be an eight-time 30-goal scorer without talent for finishing scoring chances. At 30 years old, he had 34 goals in 82 games in the 2015-16 season, but he scored a combined 36 goals in the next two seasons — which signaled that he might need to reconfigure how he gets those goals going forward.
Perry started to operate more in a bottom-six role in which he was asked to provide more secondary and tertiary goals than that of a primary scorer. A sign that he was gaining comfort in that new role was when he reached double figures twice with the Tampa Bay Lightning (2021-22 and 2022-23).
It’s why the Oilers acquired him last season as they sought to add more depth in their eventual run to the Stanley Cup final with the idea he could return in 2024-25.
QuantHockey’s data shows that there have been 136 players who have had an age-39 season in NHL history. Perry’s 19 goals this season is the same amount that Jaromir Jagr scored in his age-39 campaign in 2011-12. Perry played 81 games this season, which ties him for 10th place with Brett Hull (2003-04).
Of the 27 players who have scored more goals in their age-39 season than Perry, 12 scored more than nine power-play goals. In Perry’s case, he did the majority of his work away from the power play, with 13 of them coming in 5-on-5 play. Perry is tied with Patrick Marleau and Gary Roberts, as they all had four goals with the extra-skater advantage.
“He’s reliable because he’s smart. He can read the play,” Knoblauch said. “Obviously, the speed isn’t there like other players. But he thinks at it so much better than others. One [thing] Corey is really good at is scoring goals. This year being pretty much in a fourth-line role to score 19 goals. I’m not sure how many he had on the power play in the regular season, but it was very low. For him to do that in his role says a lot.”
STARTING HIS CAREER with the Anaheim Ducks gave Perry the platform to become one of the best players of his generation, win a Stanley Cup and become someone whom Oilers teammate Evander Kane said is a future Hall of Famer.
It also gave him a front-row seat to study how future Hall of Famers such as Scott Niedermayer, Chris Pronger and Teemu Selanne prolonged their careers.
Niedermayer played until he was 36. Pronger made it to 37, whereas Selanne became one of 12 players in NHL history to play until he was 43.
“When you’re 22 years old, you’re sitting back and just watching. You don’t really do any of it but you might do some of it,” Perry said. “But when you see them do it everyday and continue to do it and when you get to a certain age, you’ve got to put in the work. If you don’t, these young guys coming in are bigger, faster and stronger, and you’ve got to keep up and do it at a high level.”
Every generation of players has its life cycle. Perry was part of the famed 2003 NHL draft class that gave the league future stars such as Patrice Bergeron, Dustin Brown, Jeff Carter, Marc-Andre Fleury, Ryan Getzlaf, Joe Pavelski, Zach Parise, Brent Seabrook, Eric Staal, Ryan Suter and Burns.
At one point, each of those aforementioned players were franchise cornerstones, and many won Stanley Cups. For the reverence they earned, they also understood what came with aging in a way previous generations didn’t quite encounter in the same way.
The group entered the NHL at a time in which younger players didn’t receive the most minutes, nor were they paid the most money. It’s a complete contrast to the contemporary landscape in which teams place a premium on younger players being trusted in key roles early, which then translates to signing bigger contracts.
A byproduct of that shift was that it heightened the expectations for players of a certain age to meet a physical threshold by placing a premium on body maintenance. It’s why many of them were able to play beyond age 35 by taking on various roles on their respective teams — and not necessarily on the top line or pairing.
Even then, there are limits. Parise and Pavelski retired at the end of last season not having won a Stanley Cup. Fleury, who won three Cups, announced his retirement this season. Burns, Perry and Suter are still active. So what’s the secret?
“It’s the off-ice work. It’s dietary. It’s everything,” Perry said. “It’s just about doing those different things that you can to keep your body in the best shape.”
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Corey Perry tips in power-play goal for the Oilers
Corey Perry gets the Oilers on the board with a power-play goal in the second period.
Kane, who turns 34 in August, said that as someone on the back half of his career, he’s starting to understand that age is just a number. But, there are advantages to having older players in a dressing room because of their range of experiences.
Over the past two years, the Oilers have been the oldest team in the NHL. Elite Prospects lists them as having an average age of 30, while last season’s team averaged 29.2 years. Possessing that much experience has fed into a blueprint in which 11 of the players that the Oilers dressed in Game 1 of the Western Conference finals have more than 70 games of playoff experience.
Four Oilers — Darnell Nurse, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Draisaitl and McDavid — have combined to appear in 342 playoff games. Perry has 227 games of postseason experience.
Another detail that the 6-foot-3 and 205-pound Perry provides to the Oilers is size. The Oilers are the fifth-tallest and fifth-heaviest team in the NHL. The team that was tallest and heaviest this season was the Vegas Golden Knights — a club that the Oilers beat in five games in order to advance to the Western Conference finals.
“With Pears, he’s been really good and really good in front of the net,” Kane said. “He’s been scoring some big, key goals at key moments for us which is obviously huge. He’s a guy that’s going to be in the Hall of Fame someday, right? He’s been a superstar player in the league for some time.
“When you have that type of pedigree and you’ve been in the league that long, you understand how to play the game and when you have different skill sets, not just one, you’re able to contribute in different ways and he’s able to do that.”
We’ve got a series, folks! The Edmonton Oilers rallied back from a 6-3 loss in Game 1 in dominant fashion, winning Game 2 over the Dallas Stars 3-0.
That sets up a pivotal Game 3 in the Western Conference finals Sunday (3 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN+), as both teams look to gain an edge.
Here are notes on the matchup from ESPN Research, as well as betting intel from ESPN BET:
More from Game 2: Recap | Grades
Matchup notes
Dallas Stars at Edmonton Oilers
Game 3 | 3 p.m. ET | ABC/ESPN+
With the series tied 1-1, the series winner odds on ESPN BET have flipped: The Oilers are now -140 favorites (previously +160), and the Stars are +120 (previously -190). The Oilers’ Cup winner odds are now +200 (+350 after Game 1), while the Stars’ are now +325 (+200 after Game 1). Connor McDavid (+300) has the second-shortest odds to win the Conn Smythe as playoff MVP. Florida Panthers goalie Sergei Bobrovsky tops that table at +250.
The Oilers are 9-2 in their past 11 games this postseason after beginning the playoffs 0-2 and have run their record to 3-2 in Games 2 of a conference finals/Stanley Cup semifinals after losing the series opener. The other wins were in 1987 and 1991.
The Stars were shut out for the fourth time this postseason. No team has ever been shut out four times prior to reaching the Stanley Cup Final. The most was three, done by the 1950 Detroit Red Wings, 1997 Red Wings, 2012 New Jersey Devils … and 2020 Stars.
By blanking the Stars in Game 2, Oilers goaltender Stuart Skinner recorded a shutout in his first three wins of a postseason, the ninth goaltender to pull off that feat. The previous eight: Marty Turco in (2007, Stars), Nikolai Khabibulin (2004, Tampa Bay Lightning), Ed Belfour (2004, Toronto Maple Leafs), Patrick Lalime (2002, Ottawa Senators), Brent Johnson (2002, St. Louis Blues), Martin Brodeur (1995, Devils), Turk Broda (1950, Maple Leafs), Dave Kerr (1940, New York Rangers)
Leon Draisaitl and McDavid are the fourth set of teammates in the past 25 years with 20 points in consecutive postseasons, joining Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin (Pittsburgh Penguins, 2008-09), Sidney Crosby and Jake Guentzel (Penguins, 2017-18) as well as Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point (Lightning, 2020-2021). The Penguins won the Cup in two of those seasons (2009, 2017), while the Lightning won in both 2020 and 2021.
Edmonton defenseman Evan Bouchard registered his 23rd career multipoint playoff game, all in the last four seasons. This is the most in a four-postseason span by a defenseman in Stanley Cup playoffs history — the old record was 22, by current Oilers assistant coach Paul Coffey.
Stars winger Mikko Rantanen failed to score a goal for the fifth consecutive game after scoring nine in a previous six-game span this postseason. The five-game goalless drought is Rantanen’s second-longest streak in his tenure with Dallas, behind a seven-game streak from March 14-26. Rantanen has one goal in seven games vs. the Oilers this season (two with Colorado, one with Carolina, four with Dallas).
Heading into Game 3, Miro Heiskanen has 13 career multipoint games in the playoffs, tied with Sergei Zubov for the most by a defenseman in North Stars/Stars franchise history.
Stars goalie Jake Oettinger is climbing the leaderboard for playoff wins by a U.S.-born netminder. His 32 are tied for fourth with Jon Casey and Frank Brimsek, behind Tom Barrasso (61), Jonathan Quick (49) and Mike Richter (41).
Scoring leaders
GP: 13 | G: 6 | A: 14
GP: 15 | G: 9 | A: 11
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Jorge Castillo
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Jorge Castillo
ESPN Staff Writer
- ESPN baseball reporter. Covered the Washington Wizards from 2014 to 2016 and the Washington Nationals from 2016 to 2018 for The Washington Post before covering the Los Angeles Dodgers and MLB for the Los Angeles Times from 2018 to 2024.
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Alden Gonzalez
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Alden Gonzalez
ESPN Staff Writer
- ESPN baseball reporter. Covered the L.A. Rams for ESPN from 2016 to 2018 and the L.A. Angels for MLB.com from 2012 to 2016.
The Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Mets are about to see a whole lot of each other.
The defending World Series champions and the team they beat to win the National League pennant last fall play three games this weekend at Citi Field and four games at Dodger Stadium starting June 2. For those of you scoring at home, that’s seven matchups in a span of 14 days.
Both teams enter Friday’s opener in back-and-forth battles for first place in their respective divisions. How will their head-to-head play dictate the state of the NL East and West? Will they clash again come October? And who has the edge — both for now and if/when they cross paths in the playoffs?
ESPN MLB writers Jorge Castillo (based in New York) and Alden Gonzalez (based in Los Angeles) answer a few key questions about the Mets and Dodgers.
What has stood out most to you about each team’s strong start to the season?
Castillo: The starting rotation was identified as the Mets’ weakness before the season, especially after Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas sustained injuries during spring training. That has not been the case so far. Instead, the Mets own the best rotation ERA in the majors with a quintet of Kodai Senga, Clay Holmes, David Peterson, Tylor Megill and Griffin Canning toeing the rubber. The group has stumbled recently, and its innings total ranks in the bottom half of the majors. But the collective performance has allowed the Mets to overcome slow starts from various position players — most notably, Juan Soto.
Gonzalez: The emergence of three young players in particular: Dalton Rushing, Hyeseong Kim and Andy Pages. Rushing, the team’s most promising prospect outside of Roki Sasaki, torched Triple-A and prompted the Dodgers to cut ties with their longtime backup catcher, Austin Barnes. Kim, signed out of South Korea last offseason, did the same, then performed so well in the majors the Dodgers swallowed the remaining $13 million or so in Chris Taylor’s contract. Pages, meanwhile, went from being uncertain if he’d crack the Opening Day roster to establishing himself as an everyday player.
Their success underscores what has made the Dodgers the Dodgers: No matter how bloated their payroll, how poor their draft position or how often they trade prospects for veterans, they always seem to have that next wave coming.
Despite all the positives so far, what is your biggest concern about each team?
Castillo: Regression seems inevitable for the Mets’ starting rotation (unless it’s going to maintain an ERA under 3 all season). Add that to the recent bullpen injuries — namely losing A.J. Minter for the season — and the defense’s troubles, and run prevention could become a bigger issue for the Mets as the season progresses. Defensive lapses were apparent during last weekend’s Subway Series against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium, when Mark Vientos made two errors that cost runs and Pete Alonso’s errant throw allowed the go-ahead run to score in the finale. Francisco Lindor, a perennial Gold Glove contender, hasn’t been himself at shortstop, and the corner outfield spots are below average. It’s a recipe that would call for more offense.
Gonzalez: When the Dodgers concluded their fourth homestand of the season earlier this week, 14 pitchers resided on their injured list — seven in the rotation, seven in the bullpen. Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow and Sasaki are all nursing shoulder injuries with nebulous timetables, severely compromising the rotation and forcing the bullpen to lead the majors in innings. That bullpen, meanwhile, is without four critical high-leverage options in Michael Kopech, Evan Phillips, Blake Treinen and Kirby Yates, leaving Dodgers manager Dave Roberts with few, if any, trusted right-handed options to hold leads late. Dodgers pitchers continue to get hurt at an alarming rate. And not even this team can overcome that rate of injury.
Who is one x-factor who could make or break each team’s season?
Castillo: Soto, by most standards, is not having a bad season at the plate. Many players would gladly take an OPS over .800. But he signed a $765 million contract to be one of the best hitters in the sport, and he’s been far from one of those. If Soto can unlock his usual form, and there’s nothing in his track record to suggest he won’t, the Mets’ lineup becomes a different animal. Soto, at his best, makes hitters around him better. He works pitchers. He shuffles and he swaggers. The Mets haven’t seen that version yet. The body language isn’t quite right and the production isn’t there. That’ll need to change for them to become legitimate pennant contenders in a loaded National League.
Gonzalez: Shohei Ohtani has been just as much an offensive force as he was last year, when he became the first full-time designated hitter to collect an MVP Award. But there’s a whole other half waiting to be unlocked. Ohtani is going through his pitching progression slowly. At this point it doesn’t seem as if he’ll join the rotation until sometime in July at the earliest — 22 months after his second UCL repair. The Dodgers backed him off his progression ahead of the season opener, they say, in hopes of not wearing him out and providing him with the best chance of being a factor in October. If he looks anything like he did on the mound from 2021 to 2023, he will be.
Who has tougher competition to win their division: The Mets in the NL East or the Dodgers in the NL West?
Castillo: The NL West has more playoff contenders (four to three), but the quality of competition in the NL East is better. The Philadelphia Phillies, the defending division champs, arguably have the best starting rotation in the majors with an experienced lineup that has been through it all. And the Atlanta Braves are back on track, reaching .500 after their ugly 0-7 start to the season, without much contribution from their two best players. Spencer Strider, activated from the injured list this week, has made only two starts. Ronald Acuna Jr. hasn’t played in a game yet. All three teams are real October threats.
Gonzalez: It’s the NL West, because that fourth legitimate playoff contender could end up making a big difference in a tight race. The Mets still have a combined 16 games remaining against the rebuilding Washington Nationals and Miami Marlins. The Dodgers can only beat up on the Colorado Rockies, who they’ll face 10 more times. And while the Phillies are great and the Braves are more dangerous than their record indicates, one can make a case for the San Diego Padres, Arizona Diamondbacks and San Francisco Giants all being just as good, if not better. Of even more relevance is what the Dodgers will face in the ensuing weeks — 26 straight games against teams with a winning record, with the last 10 coming against division rivals.
These teams play seven times in the next 14 days. Give us your prediction for the series and the stars.
Castillo: This is shaping up to be a battle between a struggling pitching staff (Dodgers) and a struggling offense (Mets). Let’s go with Dodgers 4, Mets 3, because the Dodgers have one more home game. The Dodgers’ big three of Ohtani, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman will power them to a season series victory.
Gonzalez: Betts got off to a slow start offensively, but he recently unlocked something in his swing and has started to round back into form of late. He’ll put his imprint on these matchups, but the Mets will win most of the games for a simple reason: On days when Yoshinobu Yamamoto does not pitch, the Dodgers don’t really know what they’ll get from their starting pitchers.
Which pitching rotation will be better come October: The Dodgers’ star-studded but oft-injured group or the Mets’ currently producing but lesser-known starters?
Castillo: It’s not even Memorial Day. These rotations could look completely different come October. But, for now, I’ll take the Dodgers. They’re bound to have at least a few of those star pitchers healthy for the postseason. If not, something went terribly, terribly wrong.
Gonzalez: The Dodgers’ priority this offseason wasn’t Soto. It was Snell. They chased him early and lavished him with $182 million because they knew pairing Snell with Glasnow and Yamamoto would give them a devastating trio for October. If those three are available then, I’m taking the Dodgers. But there’s no telling if that will be the case.
If these teams earn a rematch of the 2024 NLCS this October, who are you taking and why?
Castillo: Assuming health, the Dodgers because they’re better in every department.
Gonzalez: The Mets played the Dodgers tough last year, then signed the new Ted Williams. The Dodgers beat them despite a shorthanded rotation, then added arguably the two most coveted starting pitchers in Snell and Sasaki. Now the Mets and Dodgers are separated by one game, with near-identical run differentials. More than four months of the regular season remain. I plead the Fifth.
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