‘Sudden stratospheric warming’ forecast to hit northern Europe in January – but experts unsure where it will strike

Published

5 months ago

December 29, 2023

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The UK could find itself in the deep freeze in January due to a change in wind patterns high up in the atmosphere – the same phenomenon that blew in the bitterly cold Beast from the East in 2018.

However, forecasters are warning it is too soon to tell where in Europe the cold weather will strike.

The “increased likelihood” of a freezing spell is due to a phenomenon called a ‘sudden stratospheric warming’ (SSW) that is forecast for early January, which can bring plunging cold temperatures a week or so later.

Professor Liz Bentley, chief executive of the Royal Meteorological Society, said: “When you get an SSW it increases the likelihood of a prolonged cold spell across Northern Europe, like the Beast from the East.”

But it is “hard to say” exactly where it will hit, she said. “It could impact the UK, it has the potential to, but I wouldn’t like to say it’s likely to.”

But the Met Office urged more caution. Spokesperson Stephen Dixon said: “It’s too early to tell if there will be a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event at the moment.

“Forecast models suggest a much weakened polar vortex over the coming weeks, but it’s not clear if this will result in an SSW or exactly how this will influence the UK’s weather patterns at this range.”

What is Sudden Stratospheric Warming?

An SSW happens when polar vortex winds in the stratosphere – the layer of atmosphere at 10-50km above Earth – slow, stop or reverse direction.

This leads to rapid warming in the stratosphere by up to 50C, but a few weeks later this also disrupts the jet stream, which affects our weather lower down.

As the jet stream starts to “wobble”, it allows cold air usually locked above the Arctic to seep further south in some areas of the Northern Hemisphere, said Prof Bentley.

How will it affect our weather?

“Now the crux of what we are looking for is where the waves [in the jet stream] will be,” added Prof Bentley.

“When we have an SSW it increases the likelihood of a cold spell across a large region like Europe or North America, but we wouldn’t get a feel for the actual position until four or five days out.

“Exactly where is hard to pinpoint. But there is an increased likelihood of very cold spells for certain regions.”

Professor Andrew Charlton-Perez, a meteorologist from the University of Reading, said SSWs are also associated with “weaker westerlies for Europe and even easterlies, in some cases.”

“Given westerly winds tend to give more mild weather in winter, that can bring much colder weather across Western Europe.”

He added: “We know Europe will be cold, but it is difficult to be precise where, this far out.”

When will it happen?

An SSW is on the cards for the next week, but it takes another week or so after that before the knock-on impact on the jet stream.

A cold spell is forecast for the second week of January, but it could kick in later, or last until February, said Prof Bentley.

The current Met Office forecast for mid-January projects an “increased chance of colder than average conditions during this period, and a reduced chance of prolonged periods of very unsettled / milder conditions with frequent rain and wind pushing in from the Atlantic.

“Currently the chance of widespread severe cold is still deemed low, but still the risk of impacts from cold, ice and snow is greater than normal.”

Will the UK see another ‘Beast from the East’?

An SSW doesn’t always bring cold conditions to the UK, because it depends on where the jet stream “wobbles”.

The Beast from the East in 2018 was caused by an SSW that allowed cold air to flow in to the UK from Siberia in the east.

But another SSW in 2019 “didn’t have a strong influence on Europe”, said Prof Charlton-Perez.

In any case, the UK is likely to see more settled weather than the recent wind and rain, said Prof Bentley.

World

Singapore Airlines: Passengers describe chaos of fatal turbulence flight

Published

5 hours ago

May 21, 2024

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Singapore Airlines: Passengers describe chaos of fatal turbulence flight

A passenger travelling on a plane where a man died after the aircraft hit extreme turbulence has said she was “thrown to the roof and the floor”, while another said he “won’t be flying again for a while”.

A 73-year-old British man died from a suspected heart attack and dozens more were injured after “sudden extreme turbulence” on a London-Singapore flight.

Singapore Airlines flight SQ321 left Heathrow Airport on Monday night but was forced to make an emergency landing in at Bangkok, landing at 3.45pm local time.

Passengers have said seatbelts spared people from injury and passengers were “launched into the ceiling” of the jet.

Australian Teandra Tukhunen, who had her left arm in a sling in Bangkok’s Samitivej Srinakarin Hospital, said she was asleep and “was woken up because I was thrown to the roof and then to the floor”.

Ms Tukhunen, 30, said when the seatbelt sign came on “pretty much immediately, straight after that I was flung to the roof, before I had time to put my seatbelt on unfortunately.

“It was just so quick, over in a couple of seconds and then you’re just shocked. Everyone’s pretty freaked out”.

Asked if it was scary, she shrugged: “Life happens. Things happen. The pilots saved our lives, that’s all that matters in the end.”

Passenger Joshua said “I don’t think I’ll be flying again for a while” after the incident which he called “quite scary”.

Lying on a trolley in the same hospital, he described hearing “one huge loud noise, things were coming through the ceiling, water everywhere, people crying… it wasn’t a fun end to the journey”.

He said he was in “a lot of pain” and felt a lot worse after the news of the passenger’s death had “sunk in”.

British passenger Andrew Davies said “anyone who had a seatbelt on isn’t injured”.

Mr Davies said the seatbelt sign came on, but crew members didn’t have time to take their seats.

“Every single cabin crew person I saw was injured in some way or another, maybe with a gash on their head. One had a bad back, and was in obvious pain,” he said.

Passenger Dzafran Azmir described the chaos on board after the plane rose, then fell.

Mr Azmir said: “Suddenly the aircraft starts tilting up and there was shaking so I started bracing for what was happening, and very suddenly there was a very dramatic drop so everyone seated and not wearing a seatbelt was launched immediately into the ceiling.

“Some people hit their heads on the baggage cabins overhead and dented it, they hit the places where lights and masks are and broke straight through it.”

Kittipong Kittikachorn, head of Bangkok airport, described the disorder he found when he boarded the aircraft after the most critically injured passengers and crew had been evacuated.

Mr Kittikachorn said: “I saw things lying everywhere and many air crew injured.”

He said it’s believed the turbulence hit while people were having breakfast and that an “air pocket” was to blame.

Mr Kittikachorn said most of the passengers he had spoken to had been wearing their seatbelts.

A spokesperson for Samitivej Srinakarin Hospital said: “Seventy-one people needed treatment and six of them had critical injuries”.

However, Singapore Airlines seemed to contradict those numbers and said only 30 people had been taken to hospital.

Singapore Airlines said the pilot declared a medical emergency and landed in Bangkok after “sudden extreme turbulence over the Irrawaddy Basin at 37,000 feet about 10 hours after departure”.

In a statement, the UK Foreign Office said it was “in contact with the local authorities”.

Forty-seven Britons were among the 211 passengers and 18 crew onboard the plane, a Boeing 777-300ER.

World

Singapore Airlines: Is flight turbulence getting worse – and what types are there?

Published

5 hours ago

May 21, 2024

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Singapore Airlines: Is flight turbulence getting worse - and what types are there?

Severe turbulence struck a Singapore Airlines flight from London Heathrow earlier today, with one man killed and many others “launched into the ceiling”.

Authorities believe a 73-year-old British man, who had a heart condition, likely died from cardiac arrest, with at least 30 others injured as a result of the turbulence.

Deaths from turbulence are extremely rare, and the US’ Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) said 146 passengers and crew have been seriously injured by turbulence between 2009 and 2021.

But what could have caused the incident, what types of turbulence exist, and are the events getting worse? Here’s what experts have said so far:

What does the flight data show?

Flight data shows a spike in altitude of around 275ft (84m) at 2.49pm local time. Shortly after, the plane returned to a cruising altitude of around 37,000ft (11,277m).

According to Flightradar24, “the flight encountered a rapid change in vertical rate, consistent with a sudden turbulence event”.

At 3.03pm local time, the flight changed course and began its diversion to Bangkok.

Around 20 minutes later, at about 3.25pm, the flight declared an emergency – a Squawk 7700 – before landing in Bangkok at 3.45pm.

What could have caused the turbulence?

Tim Atkinson, an aviation consultant and pilot, told the Sky News Daily podcast he believes “it’s fairly clear” the Singapore Airlines flight “encountered atmospheric turbulence”.

He noted that the area – called the Intertropical Convergence Zone – where the Boeing 777 plunged 6,000 feet is “renowned among pilots, and I dare say passengers, for turbulence”.

“Despite abundant caution occasionally, there’s turbulence ahead which can’t be identified, and the unfortunate result of an encounter is injury and, very rarely, fatality,” he said.

Mr Atkinson also noted that the larger the aircraft, “the worse the atmospheric perturbation, the disruption in the smoothness of the atmosphere, needs to be to cause major problems”.

He then said the 777 is “one of the largest and, I daresay, most solid airframes widely flying around the world”.

What types of turbulence are there?

Sky News’ weather producer Jo Robinson notes there are a few forms of turbulence – where there’s a sudden change in airflow and wind speed.

Turbulence can often be associated with storm clouds, which are usually well forecast and monitored, allowing planes to fly around them.

Clear-air turbulence (CAT) is much more dangerous as there are no visual signs, such as clouds.

This invisible vertical air movement usually occurs at and above 15,000ft and is mostly linked to the jet stream.

There are clues on where CAT may occur, but generally it can’t be detected ahead of time, which means flight crews can be caught unaware with no time to warn passengers and put seat belt signs on.

It is unclear what type of turbulence the Singapore Airlines flight went through.

How common is an incident like this?

Chris McGee, a commercial pilot for more than 20 years, said in her experience the plane did encounter CAT which is “almost impossible to predict” and comes “out of the blue”.

Ms McGee said turbulence is not in fact that rare, but to experience it to this degree is “phenomenally rare”.

“In my career I’ve experienced one incident of severe turbulence,” she said, adding that she has heard of maybe “two, possibly three incidents of something that extreme” from fellow pilots.

The reported 6,000-ft drop in under five minutes is quite normal in a controlled descent instigated by the pilot, she said.

However, what they experienced was not a nice smooth, controlled descent, but an “absolute maelstrom of the aeroplane flinging itself around all over the sky”.

“It’s awful what happened to those on board, one death is tragic, other people were injured, but something like that is incredibly rare,” she said.

“We do train in the simulator every six months at least where we practicse things we can’t practise in the real aeroplane. Things like emergency procedures, abnormalities and unusual weather conditions like this, for example.

“We are taught how to fly the aeroplane through these extreme events and how to recover them should the plane depart from its normal flight mode.”

Her best advice for any passengers concerned about their safety on the flight is to follow what the cabin crew “strongly suggest and keep their seatbelts loosely tied at all times. On the flight deck that’s what we do. It will protect you”.

Is turbulence getting worse?

It’s been understood for some time that climate change is increasing turbulence during flights, and the trend is set to worsen according to reports.

In June last year, a study from Reading University found that in a typical spot in the North Atlantic – one of the world’s busiest routes – the total annual duration of severe turbulence increased by 55% from 17.7 hours in 1979 to 27.4 hours in 2020.

Moderate turbulence was also found to have increased by 37% from 70.0 to 96.1 hours, and light turbulence increased by 17% from 466.5 to 546.8 hours.

Professor Paul Williams, an atmospheric scientist who co-authored the study, said at the time: “My message from this is we need to do something otherwise flights will become more turbulent in future [as global heating increases further].”

Professor Paul Roundy, from the University of Albany, said on X on Tuesday that the 55% increase in “a very infrequent signal gives a real, but small, change in absolute risk”.

He noted that “it’s not something a randomly selected passenger should worry about,” before adding: “Airline travel of the future won’t be fraught with wings ripped off planes, or have thousands of dead or injured passengers.

“It will mostly look like it does today.”

World

British man who died after severe turbulence on flight named as Geoff Kitchen

Published

9 hours ago

May 21, 2024

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British man who died after severe turbulence on flight named as Geoff Kitchen

The 73-year-old British man who died from a suspected heart attack after “sudden extreme turbulence” on a London-Singapore flight has been named as Geoff Kitchen.

Dozens more were injured in the incident, with passengers describing people being “launched into the ceiling” and overhead lockers.

Singapore Airlines flight SQ321 from Heathrow was forced to make an emergency landing at Bangkok Airport in Thailand.

Mr Kitchen, from Thornbury near Bristol, was on a six-week holiday with his wife to Singapore, Indonesia and Australia.

In a post on Facebook, Thornbury Musical Theatre Group paid tribute to Mr Kitchen: “It is with a heavy heart that we learn of the devastating news of the passing of our esteemed colleague and friend Geoff Kitchen in the recent Singapore Air Incident.

“Geoff was always a gentleman with the utmost honesty and integrity and always did what was right for the group.

“His commitment to TMTG was unquestionable and he has served the group and the local community of Thornbury for over 35 years, holding various offices within the group, including chairman, treasurer and most recently secretary.

“Our thoughts and prayers go out to his wife and the family at this difficult time, and we ask that you respect their privacy.”

Kittipong Kittikachorn, head of Bangkok airport, said earlier that the 73-year-old died from a probable cardiac arrest.

Forty-seven Britons were among the 211 passengers and 18 crew onboard the plane, a Boeing 777-300ER.

A spokesperson for Samitivej Srinakarin Hospital said: “Seventy-one people needed treatment and six of them had critical injuries.”

However, Singapore Airlines seemed to contradict those numbers and said only 30 people had been taken to hospital.

Speaking to Sky News, passengers said seatbelts spared some from injury, while others described flight attendants as having cuts to their heads.

Australian Teandra Tukhunen, who had her left arm in a sling in Bangkok’s Samitivej Srinakarin Hospital, said she was asleep and “woken up because I was thrown to the roof and then to the floor”.

Ms Tukhunen, 30, said when the seatbelt sign came on “pretty much immediately, straight after that I was flung to the roof, before I had time to put my seatbelt on unfortunately”.

“It was just so quick, over in a couple of seconds and then you’re just shocked. Everyone’s pretty freaked out.”

Turbulence can hit without warning

Jo Robinson

Weather producer

@SkyJoRobinson

There are a few forms of turbulence – where there’s a sudden change in airflow and wind speed.

Turbulence can often be associated with storm clouds, which are usually well forecast and monitored, allowing planes to fly around them.

Clear-Air Turbulence (CAT) is much more dangerous as there are no visual signs, such as clouds.

This invisible vertical air movement usually occurs at and above 15,000ft and is mostly linked to the jet stream.

There are clues on where CAT may occur, but generally it can’t be detected ahead of time, which means flight crews can be caught unaware with no time to warn passengers and put seat belt signs on.

It’s been understood for some time that climate change is increasing turbulence during flights, and the trend is set to worsen according to reports.

Passenger Dzafran Azmir also said: “Some people hit their heads on the baggage cabins overhead and dented it, they hit the places where lights and masks are and broke straight through it.”

Singapore Airlines also said the pilot declared a medical emergency and landed in Bangkok after “sudden extreme turbulence over the Irrawaddy Basin at 37,000 feet about 10 hours after departure”.

In a statement, the UK Foreign Office said: “We are supporting the family of a British man who has died in Bangkok and are in contact with the local authorities.”