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How to sum up a year like 2023?

Perhaps the best thing to say is that it was considerably less exciting – as far as the economics went – than 2022.

And that’s probably no bad thing, because in 2022 much of what passed for excitement was extremely painful: the onset of a cost of living crisis which caused the biggest fall in British standards of living in modern record, a financial meltdown in the wake of Liz Truss‘s mini-budget.

The plan, when Rishi Sunak and Jeremy Hunt came into office, was always to make the economy boring again, and to some extent they succeeded.

Most obviously, while the government’s cost of borrowing did later rise to above the Truss era levels, it was largely down to higher inflation expectations and not to fears over the credibility of UK government policy.

This time last year, most people assumed – present company included – that 2023 would be a year of recession for the UK.

And for much of the year that’s precisely what it looked like.

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France and Germany both tipped into technical recession (the definition of which is that you suffer two successive quarters of economic contraction). The UK was expected to do likewise.

Economic growth

UK CPI inflation slide 2

But somehow, it never happened.

At least, not quite.

Instead, the economy more or less flatlined for most of the year – though figures published by the Office for National Statistics just before Christmas showed the economy contracted slightly, by 0.1% in the third quarter.

Either way, this can hardly be held up as a positive result. Normally you’d expect the UK’s gross domestic product to grow by around 2-2.5% each year.

However, a negligible amount of economic growth is more than most expected this year – even if (see below) it was helped by a colossal increase in migration.

Technically, this meant the prime minister met one of his much-publicised pledges he made to the country at the start of the year – to grow the economy.

As you can see from the chart, this isn’t much to boast about, especially set against the pre-pandemic path, but it is certainly better than what many other European countries experienced.

The Cost of Living

Another of the prime minister’s pledges was to halve inflation this year.

At the time he made it, this pledge looked pretty unspectacular, given a) controlling inflation is the Bank of England‘s task, not the government’s and, anyway, b) pretty much every economist was expecting inflation to halve this year anyway.

But over the course of the year inflation defied many of those economists’ forecasts, with the upshot that by the summer that pledge looked quite risky.

But then, no sooner had inflation surprised on the upside, it surprised on the downside, falling faster than most economists expected.

UK CPI inflation slide 1

By the end of the year the consumer price index rate of inflation was down to 3.9% which is nearly in “normal” territory, albeit considerably higher than the Bank of England’s 2% target.

But while that meant the rate was indeed halved (actually more than halved) over the year, this hardly ends the cost of living crisis.

After all, inflation is simply the rate at which prices are changing each year. And right now prices are still 15% higher than they were a couple of years ago.

It’s that jump in levels which is causing severe economic hardship right now.

Life is not getting any less expensive. It’s just getting expensive a little slower than it was a year or so ago.

Interest rates

It’s tempting to lump interest rates along with the other things that didn’t turn out as bad as expected, but here the story is more complicated.

True: rates never rose to the 6% highs that were once expected around the time of the Truss mini-budget and also during the inflation spike during the Hunt chancellorship.

Slide 3 bank and mortgage rates

But they nonetheless rose far higher than most had expected at the start of the year, up to a peak of 5.25%. As the year ended, the Bank was still insisting that they would stay up there for some time (and some members were still voting for higher rates) but most investors believe they will be cut numerous times in the new year – down as far as 4% by the end of the year.

That has a bearing on the mortgage rates most of us pay, since fixed-rate mortgages are mostly priced off what’s going on in financial markets rather than the Bank’s official rate. The upshot was that the going rate for two and five-year fixed-rate mortgages were falling sharply by the end of the year.

Tax burden

Another hot topic this year was taxation.

The government insisted repeatedly that it wants to bring it down, and in the Autumn Statement, the chancellor announced a series of cuts to both workers’ taxes and taxes on business investment.

The upshot was that the tax burden wasn’t due to rise as high as it might otherwise have done.

Overall UK tax burden slide 4

However, the overall burden is still due to hit the highest level since the 1940s, in large part because of the fact that the levels at which people are pulled into higher tax bands has been frozen.

Higher wage inflation (due to the cost of living crisis) means more people are seeing their earnings taxed at those higher levels.

This so-called “fiscal drag” means the nation is shifting from being a medium-tax country to a high-tax country.

But so too are most developed nations, as the cost of running expensive healthcare systems rises, along with the average age of their populations.

Migration

While the government spent much of its energy talking about illegal immigration and the boats coming across the channel, the real quantitative story here was actually legal migration, which rose, according to the data released this year, to an unprecedented level of 745,000 in 2022.

 Slide 5

That rise was extraordinary by any standards.

When looked at as a share of the population, it amounts to comfortably the biggest rise in net migration since records began. And, strikingly, experts said that this was primarily a consequence of the new rules brought in after Brexit, which made it easier for workers and students from outside Europe to come to Britain.

Migration might have been a big issue during the EU referendum, but the numbers today are considerably higher than they were back then – but Britain has swapped EU migrants with those from outside the continent – primarily from India and China.

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Hunt calls Dorneywood summit to boost flagging UK stock market

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Hunt calls Dorneywood summit to boost flagging UK stock market

Jeremy Hunt is convening a summit aimed at enticing more companies to London’s stock market amid an accelerating exodus of businesses being picked off by overseas and financial predators.

Sky News has learnt that the Treasury has invited the bosses of some of Britain’s most prominent private companies to attend a meeting next month at Dorneywood, the chancellor’s weekend country residence.

Sources said the day-long event on 16 May would target entrepreneurs behind potential flotation candidates from the fintech and biotech sectors.

Bim Afolami, the City minister, and Lord Petitgas, the prime minister’s chief business adviser, will also be present, alongside key government officials and executives from the London Stock Exchange, the sources added.

In the invitation, a copy of which has been seen by Sky News, the Treasury said attendees and the chancellor would “discuss the UK’s capital markets and how they can support innovative, high-growth companies such as yours to achieve your growth ambitions”.

“The UK’s capital markets play a key role in our economy: driving growth, creating jobs and facilitating investment.

“The government is committed to ensuring that the UK remains the best place for companies to grow, and is already taking forward an ambitious programme of reforms to improve the competitiveness of the UK.”

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Dozens of companies, including the likes of digital banks Monzo and Starling Bank, are understood to have been on the invitation list.

The Dorneywood summit has been planned for several months, according to officials, who denied that it was being staged in response to a glut of companies which have announced in recent weeks that they are in receipt of takeover bids or that they would unilaterally delist from the London market.

Chancellor Jeremy Hunt. Pic: PA
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Chancellor Jeremy Hunt. Pic: PA

Approaches this week for Anglo American, the £30bn mining giant, and Darktrace, the cybersecurity company, have exacerbated the impression of a growing ‘de-equitisation’ of the UK stock market.

Although neither of those deals have yet to be formally agreed, a string of others have, including International Paper’s bid for DS Smith, the FTSE-100 paper and packaging group, which was revealed by Sky News last month.

Other companies which have agreed deals with suitors include Virgin Money, which is set to be bought by Nationwide in a £3bn deal.

Yet more, such as the Royal Mail parent International Distributions Services and the music royalties company Hipgnosis Songs Fund, are in receipt of serious takeover approaches.

While frenetic periods of mergers and acquisitions are far from uncommon, bankers and investors point to a dearth of attractive new opportunities to deploy capital because the flow of initial public offerings has been so slow.

Many of the companies that London would have hoped to attract, including the private equity firm CVC Capital Partners and the chip designer ARM Holdings, opted to list in Amsterdam and New York respectively.

The perception of London’s decline is being heightened by the decisions of boards to move their existing UK listings to other international exchanges, with TUI Travel and Flutter Entertainment, the gambling group behind Paddy Power, among those to relegate their London market presence.

Bosses of companies as large as Shell, the oil behemoth, have also begun to acknowledge publicly their frustration at what they perceive to be a gulf between their intrinsic valuation and that which the public markets are attaching to them.

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Earlier this month, the boss of E-Therapeutics, a fast-growing but loss-making biotech company, described the London stock market as “broken and closed” as he announced plans to delist it and pursue a New York flotation at a future date.

This weekend, one government insider said the Dorneywood meeting would be important because it would highlight to fast-growing British companies that listing overseas “is not all milk and honey”.

A number of the UK-based businesses – such as Arrival, Cazoo and Benevolent AI – which went public in Europe and the US during the now-faded boom for special purpose acquisition companies – have seen their valuations crash, with some subsequently cancelling their listings.

“We need to explain to companies why London’s capital markets are the right place for these businesses to go public,” said one government source.

A Treasury spokesperson said: “The chancellor is meeting with a number of firms to hear their reflections on UK markets and what more the government and regulators can do to support their growth.”

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Russia sanctions-busting? Big questions remain over UK car exports

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Russia sanctions-busting? Big questions remain over UK car exports

The extraordinary, unprecedented and largely unexplained flows of millions of pounds of British luxury cars into states neighbouring Russia continued in February, according to new official data.

Some £26m worth of British cars were exported to Azerbaijan in February, according to data from HM Revenue & Customs.

The numbers show that in the latest quarter this former Soviet state with developing economy status was the 17th biggest destination for UK cars, bigger than long-established export markets such as Ireland, Portugal and Qatar.

1

Azerbaijan’s ascent has coincided almost to the month with the imposition of sanctions on the export of cars to Russia.

British cars are banned from being sent into Russia, both as “dual use” goods, which could be repurposed as weapons, and, for any cars over the value of £42,000, under specific luxury goods restrictions.

However, even as UK car exports to Russia plummeted to zero, they have risen sharply to states neighbouring Russia, including Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Georgia and, most notably of all, Azerbaijan.

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While it is impossible to prove where those shipments end up eventually, there is plentiful anecdotal evidence that these countries are being used as conduits to smuggle banned goods to Russia.

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The latest HMRC data shows that in the three months to February, the average value of the cars being sent to Azerbaijan was over £115,000, making this small, relatively poor economy one of the most high-value luxury car markets in the world – alongside Switzerland, Luxembourg and Saudi Arabia.

2

The total value of UK car exports to Azerbaijan in the two years since the invasion of Ukraine and the imposition of sanctions is now £523m. That compares to £58m in the immediately preceding two years.

Britain’s motor lobby group, the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT), has insisted that this 800% increase can be explained by domestic factors in the Azerbaijani economy – and is not connected with Russian sanctions.

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March: British-made luxury cars still being bought by rich Russians

Read more:
UK-made cars are getting into Russia despite sanctions
2,000% increase in car sales to Azerbaijan ‘has nothing to do with Russia’

An SMMT spokesperson said: “UK carmakers comply with all trade sanctions and would condemn any party putting that commitment at risk. Car exports from UK factories to Azerbaijan have grown since 2019 due to multiple factors, including significant new model launches, pent-up demand and a growing domestic appetite for UK luxury cars. Indeed, UN data shows that just two cars of any origin have been officially exported from Azerbaijan to Russia this year.

“We have never ruled out the possibility that third parties might exploit any vulnerabilities in the sanction regime, and manufacturers do everything in their power to prevent this. Any UK-built vehicle on sale in Russia found its way there without their authorisation. This is a fast-moving global issue covering products from multiple sectors in many countries deploying sanctions, and tackling any vulnerabilities requires a coordinated, global response.”

However, while United Nations (UN) data suggests the quantity of cars being officially exported to Russia remains low, that same evidence suggests that, far from behaving like a normal car market, Azerbaijan does seem to be funnelling cars off elsewhere into Central Asia.

3

Contrary to the SMMT’s analysis, which suggests the car exports can be explained by domestic factors, car exports from Azerbaijan have risen by 4,800% since the invasion of Russia, with most of the cars destined (according to UN data) for Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Georgia and the United Arab Emirates.

According to UK government sources, these states are understood to be widely used as conduits for goods into Russia.

Cars are not the only British goods to have seen a large spike in exports to Central Asia and the Caucasus – so too have components and machinery used to make weapons. In a visit to Kyrgyzstan this week, Foreign Secretary Lord Cameron admitted that Russia is using central Asian countries to sidestep sanctions and build its “war machine”.

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Post Office inquiry: Former complaints handler executive says she never ‘knowingly’ did anything wrong

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Post Office inquiry: Former complaints handler executive says she never 'knowingly' did anything wrong

A former top Post Office executive has told the Horizon scandal inquiry she never “knowingly” did anything wrong and did not remember a 2010 email saying that cash balances in sub-postmasters’ branch accounts could be remotely accessed.

Angela van den Bogerd, who held various roles over 35 years at the organisation, made the comments after opening her evidence on Thursday by saying she was “truly, truly sorry” for the “devastation” caused to wrongly convicted sub-postmasters.

Her roles at the Post Office included handling complaints about its Horizon software, which was provided by Japanese firm Fujitsu.

More than 700 Post Office managers were prosecuted between 1999 and 2015, after the system made it seem like money was missing from branches. At the time, the company insisted Horizon was robust.

Ms van der Bogerd, who was played by Coronation Street actress Katherine Kelly in the ITV drama Mr Bates Vs The Post Office, had previously not spoken publicly since a 2019 High Court case.

At the time, Judge Peter Fraser criticised her testimony and said she “did not give me frank evidence, and sought to obfuscate matters, and mislead me”.

Jason Beer KC, lead counsel to the inquiry, challenged Ms van den Bogerd’s opening statement, as he accused her of not saying sorry for her own role in the scandal.

Ms van den Bogerd, who resigned as the Post Office’s business improvement director in 2020, said she regretted missing significant documents and apologised for “not getting to the answer more quickly”.

She said: “But with the evidence I had and the parameters of my role at the time, I did the best I could to the best of my ability.”

Ms van den Bogerd added: “I didn’t knowingly do anything wrong and I would never knowingly do anything wrong.”

Read more on this story:
Review ordered into another Post Office IT system

Scandal victim demands jail for those who denied her justice
Leaked Post Office recordings revealed

The inquiry heard that Ms van den Bogerd was sent an email in December 2010 informing her Fujitsu could remotely amend cash balances in branch accounts via Horizon.

She told the inquiry she had no memory of it and only became aware of the issue in a January 2011 email.

The inquiry was shown a transcript of a meeting that same month between her and sub-postmistress Rachpal Athwal, who was sacked after being wrongly accused of stealing £710 before being reinstated.

In the meeting, Ms van den Bogerd said Horizon could not be accessed remotely by anyone from the Post Office, without mentioning that Fujitsu could, the inquiry heard.

Mr Beer asked: “Are you saying that what you said overall there is accurate?”

Ms van den Bogerd replied: “So that is accurate. I go on to talk later about Fujitsu, I believe”. Mr Beer said it was inaccurate because she had not given the full picture.

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Scandal ‘tip of the iceberg’

The inquiry also heard that, prior to a High Court case in 2019, Ms van den Bogerd made a witness statement in 2018 in which she said the first she knew of the possibility of inserting transactions into the system remotely was in the year or so before.

Mr Beer told the inquiry: “That was false.”

She replied: “Well, at the time I didn’t think it was.”

Pressed further on the issue, she said the messaging on remote access was “constantly changing” and that colleagues had been “very strong” that such access was “impossible”.

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‘I have had breakdowns’

Ms van den Bogerd was also asked about an October 2014 email she and other senior staff were sent by Post Office media officer Melanie Corfield, which discussed what the response should be if anyone asked about remote access to Horizon.

The email said: “Our current line if we are asked about remote access potentially being used to change branch data/transactions is simply: ‘This is not and never has been possible’.”

Mr Beer said: “You knew that was false from multiple sources by then, by now, didn’t you?”

Ms van den Bogerd appeared flustered, before replying: “Clearly I was aware of that and just didn’t pick this up… it didn’t register with me at the time, but obviously from what we’ve discussed then this was incorrect terms of reference of a flow of information, yes.”

She added she was “certainly not trying to cover up… it wasn’t just me, there were other people party to the same information”.

Meanwhile, earlier in the hearing, the former executive said she agreed with Mr Beer that using words such as “exception” or “anomaly” to describe computer bugs had been an “attempt to control the narrative”.

The inquiry continues.

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