United States acts as top cop — setting the crypto standards for the world
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A flag outside the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission headquarters in Washington, Feb. 23, 2022.
Al Drago | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Regulators around the world from Europe to Asia ramped up efforts to bring about formal laws for digital currencies in 2023 — but it was the U.S. that took some of the harshest legal actions against major players in the industry.
In a year that saw crypto heavyweight Binance ordered to pay more than $4 billion to U.S. authorities and its former CEO’s guilty plea, along with high-profile lawsuits against five crypto companies by the Securities and Exchange Commission, regulators overseas have been equally busy both adopting new legislation — and pushing for more — to rein in the sector’s bad actors.
Here’s the state of play globally for crypto regulation and enforcement in 2023 — and a look at what to expect in 2024.
U.S. tops the list globally for enforcement
The U.S. has proven to be one of the most active enforcers of penalties and legal action against crypto companies this year, as authorities looked to counter bad practices in the industry following the collapse of Sam Bankman-Fried’s crypto empire — including his FTX exchange and sister firm Alameda Research.
“To be clear, in some cases — like FTX — enforcement was necessary,” said Renato Mariotti, a former prosecutor in the U.S. Justice Department’s Securities and Commodities Fraud Section. “But U.S. enforcement actions against market participants that are more focused on compliance are questionable and the result of the U.S. ‘regulation by enforcement’ approach.”
While many regions have passed laws with potentially tough penalties, the U.S. is still the only country that has actively taken action against large-scale crypto companies and projects. Thus far, the U.S. has led that campaign against crypto firms by enforcement and has, by far, been the most punishing of regulators when it comes to penalties and fines.
“Other countries have a comprehensive regulatory framework in place. We don’t,” Mariotti told CNBC. “As a result, issues that should be determined by legislation or regulation are instead litigated.”
Indeed, in the absence of hard-and-fast rules from Capitol Hill, the SEC, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the Department of Justice, and Treasury’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCen), have worked in parallel to police the space, in a sort of patch-quilt version of regulation-by-enforcement.
Richard Levin, a partner at Nelson Mullins Riley & Scarborough who has represented clients before the SEC, CFTC, and Congress, tells CNBC that these agencies have been some of the most active enforcers around the world concerning the regulation of digital assets and cryptocurrencies.
“These agencies have provided guidance to the industry on how digital assets and cryptocurrencies must be offered and sold, traded, and held by custodians,” said Levin, who has been involved in the fintech sector for 30 years.
“However, much of their work has involved providing guidance to the industry through enforcement actions,” continued Levin.
Since 2019, Justice’s Market Integrity and Major Frauds Unit has charged cryptocurrency fraud cases involving over $2 billion in intended financial losses to investors worldwide.
In its annual report summing up enforcement actions, the CFTC noted that nearly half of all cases in 2023 involved conduct related to digital asset commodities. Meanwhile, the SEC highlighted that 2023 was notable for its enforcement of “crypto-related misconduct, including fraud schemes, unregistered crypto assets and platforms, and illegal celebrity touting.” Since 2014, the SEC has brought more than 200 actions related to crypto asset and cyber enforcement.
The most stringent cases played out in the first half of the year when the SEC accused Binance and Coinbase of engaging in illegal securities dealing in a pair of lawsuits.
Most notably, the SEC alleges that at least 13 crypto assets available to Coinbase customers — including Solana’s sol, Cardano’s ada, and Protocol Labs’ filecoin — should be considered securities, meaning they’d need to be subject to strict transparency and disclosure requirements.
In Binance’s case, the SEC went a step further. In addition to securities law violations, the company and its co-founder and CEO Changpeng Zhao were also accused of commingling customer assets with company funds.
Concerning criminal enforcement, Damian Williams, the U.S. attorney for the Southern District of New York, has been leading some of Justice’s highest-profile crypto prosecutions, including the monthlong trial of Bankman-Fried, the disgraced FTX founder. In November, a jury found the former FTX chief executive guilty of all seven criminal counts against him following a few hours of deliberation.
But crypto companies have begun to push back, with some threatening to decamp from the U.S. entirely should this dynamic of policing by enforcement continue.
Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong condemned the SEC’s actions against the exchange and suggested the company may be forced to move its headquarters overseas. Armstrong later walked back the threat of relocating abroad, but Coinbase and other major crypto firms have still begun to invest more heavily in their international operations.
Crypto market participants nevertheless hope that the spate of legal challenges brought to crypto companies in 2023 will bring clarity in the form of new regulations.
“Clearer regulatory frameworks and stance from regulators globally have provided a sense of legitimacy and security, encouraging more widespread participation in the bitcoin market,” Alyse Killeen, managing partner of Stillmark Capital, told CNBC.
The crypto industry saw the most legislative progress on crypto laws in the U.S. this year, with one of the competing digital asset bills making it past multiple House committees for the first time.
Even as U.S. lawmakers take steps toward crypto legislation, there remains no law in the U.S. tailored specifically for the industry. Nelson Mullins Riley & Scarborough’s Levin tells CNBC it’s unlikely that we’ll see much progress in a presidential election year and with a divided federal government.
He argues that even without rules on crypto from lawmakers, routine complaints that U.S. regulators are not providing guidance to the industry are without merit.
According to Levin, “The SEC, the CFTC and FinCEN routinely provide informal guidance on the regulation of digital assets and cryptocurrencies.”
“The SEC even went so far as to provide a framework for the analysis of digital assets and cryptocurrencies. The SEC also created a fake digital asset (Hosey Coin) that gave advice to the FinTech community on how not to launch a digital asset,” Levin added.
“Some members of the industry forget the SEC is relying on laws that were written when American football players wore leather helmets, and the SEC must apply those laws to the FinTech industry,” he said.
Despite crypto’s recent fading buzz, Killeen of Stillmark Capital doesn’t expect regulators to become fatigued by crypto in 2024. In the same time year that two of crypto’s leading figures were sent to jail, shares of Coinbase — and prices of digital currencies like bitcoin and ether — have rallied sharply.
Since the start of this year, Coinbase’s stock price has surged more than 400%. Bitcoin and ether, meanwhile, have both roughly doubled in price. That’s as investors anticipate that approval for a bitcoin exchange-traded fund by the SEC may be around the corner.
Europe
The European Union looks set to apply its Markets in Crypto-Assets legislation, which is aimed at taming the “Wild West” of the crypto industry, in full force starting next year.
The law, initially proposed in 2019 as a response to Meta’s digital currency project Diem, formerly known as Libra, aimed to clean up fraud, money laundering and other illicit financing in the crypto space, and stamp out the sector’s bad actors more broadly.
Read more about tech and crypto from CNBC Pro
It also sought to tackle a perceived threat from so-called stablecoins, or blockchain-based tokens that serve as a representation of government money but are backed by private companies. Stablecoins are effectively digital currencies that are pegged to the value of fiat currencies like the dollar.
While tether and Circle’s USDC aren’t perceived as “systemic” assets capable of disrupting financial stability, a private stablecoin from a massive company like Meta, Visa or Mastercard could pose a bigger threat and potentially undermine sovereign currencies, in several EU central bankers’ eyes.
The U.S.’s dominant role in global finance and its focus on consumer protection plays a crucial role in its leading position in crypto regulation enforcement. However, the landscape is evolving, and other jurisdictions are steadily enhancing their regulatory and enforcement frameworks in crypto.
Braden Perry
Former federal enforcement attorney and current partner at
Part of the EU’s framework for crypto is aimed at tackling threats — particularly that of the euro being undermined — by making it impossible for issuers to mint stablecoins backed by currencies other than the euro, like the U.S. dollar, once they meet the threshold of more than 1 million transactions per day.
Meanwhile, the European Union is moving towards a unified regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies with its Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA).
This year, the three main political institutions of the EU-approved MiCA, paving the way for the regulation to become law. MiCA came into force in June 2023, but it’s not expected to apply fully until December 2024.
Companies are already getting ready to take advantage of the new rules, with Coinbase submitting an application for a universal MiCA license in Ireland. If and when it is approved, this would allow Coinbase to “passport” its services into other countries like Germany, France, Italy, and the Netherlands.
Braden Perry, former federal enforcement attorney and current partner at law firm Kennyhertz Perry, said that while the U.S. remains a top enforcer for the crypto industry, its perception as a regulator “may be diminishing,” as other jurisdictions have stepped in with clearer rules.
“This perception stems from the proactive measures taken by U.S. regulatory bodies like the SEC, CFTC, and IRS, especially in addressing fraud and security issues in the crypto market. High-profile legal actions in the U.S. further cement its image as a strict enforcer,” he said.
“However, other regions, including Singapore, Dubai, Hong Kong, and the European Union, are also developing robust regulatory frameworks,” Perry added. “While these regions may not be as visible in international media for enforcement actions, they possess significant and sometimes stringent regulatory mechanisms.”
But while the broader EU has been racing to implement new crypto laws, individual European countries haven’t been resting on their laurels.
France has been tempting crypto companies and traders alike to its shores with the promise of tax cuts on crypto profits and a smoother registration process for digital asset firms.
Starting from Jan 1, 2024, France’s Financial Markets Authority, or AMF, is set to amend its registration requirements for crypto firms to better align with MiCA, according to an August statement from the regulator.
At the same time, French authorities have kept a skeptical eye on fraudulent activity among various crypto players. In September, French regulators added 22 fraudulent websites — including some that market trading in crypto and crypto-linked derivatives — to a blacklist of unauthorized foreign exchange providers.
In Germany, meanwhile, the financial regulator Bafin has said it wants to accelerate its approach to licensing crypto custody services, as part of a broader effort to instill trust and transparency in the crypto market.
The U.K., a non-member of the EU, passed a law in June that gives regulators the ability to oversee stablecoins. But there are no concrete rules for crypto just yet.
The U.K.’s Treasury department released its response to a consultation on new crypto rules earlier this year, confirming that it plans to bring a range of crypto activities, including crypto custody and lending, within existing laws governing financial services firms in the country.
Asia
Earlier this year, the Monetary Authority of Singapore, which is recognized for clear fintech and crypto regulations that do not rely heavily on enforcement actions, finalized rules for stablecoins, making it one of the world’s first jurisdictions to do so.
Singapore was notably bruised by the collapse of TerraUSD, a controversial algorithmic stablecoin, in 2022, as well as the fall of Three Arrows Capital, or 3AC. Both Terra Labs, the company behind Terra, and 3AC were headquartered in Singapore.
Singapore’s new framework requires stablecoin issuers to back them with low-risk and highly-liquid assets, which must equal or exceed the value of tokens in circulation at all times, return the par value of the digital currency to holders within five business days of a redemption request, and disclose audit results of reserves to users.
Hong Kong, meanwhile, is undergoing a public consultation on stablecoins and seeks to introduce regulation next year.
The region has been increasingly warming to crypto assets, despite a broader anti-crypto push from China, which banned bitcoin trading and mining in 2021.
The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission, or SFC, launched a registration regime for digital asset businesses earlier this year, with clear regulations for crypto exchanges and funds.
So far, only two firms, OSL Digital and Hash Blockchain, have been handed licenses.
The Middle East and Africa
The United Arab Emirates has emerged as a popular base for the fintech sector more broadly, given its lack of personal income tax, flexible visa policies, and competitive incentives for international businesses and workers.
In 2022, in a bid to lead the virtual assets sector in the Middle East and Africa, Dubai — the UAE’s most populous city — launched VARA, or the Virtual Asset Regulatory Authority.
“Dubai and the UAE have created favorable conditions for cryptocurrency businesses, offering specific zones and guidelines for crypto trading,” said Perry.
Blockchain analytics firm Chainalysis notes that regulators in the UAE were early to cryptocurrency, with Dubai leading the charge when it launched a blockchain strategy in 2016.
“Since then, UAE regulators have remained at the forefront of the industry,” according to a Chainalysis report.
Two years later, in 2018, Abu Dhabi Global Market created the world’s first regulatory framework for cryptocurrency to foster innovation while safeguarding consumers.
Earlier this year, the UAE passed further crypto regulations at the federal level to make it easier for regulators like VARA to police the sector and run economic-free zones.
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Technology
Britain seeks to build homegrown rival to OpenAI in bid to become world leader in artificial intelligence
Published
13 hours agoon
January 12, 2025By
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Britain’s Prime Minister Keir Starmer gives a media interview while attending the 79th United Nations General Assembly at the United Nations Headquarters in New York, U.S. September 25, 2024.
Leon Neal | Via Reuters
LONDON — The U.K is looking to build a homegrown challenger to OpenAI and drastically increase national computing infrastructure, as Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s government sets its sights on becoming a global leader in artificial intelligence.
Starmer is set to visit Bristol, England, on Monday to announce the pledge, which follows work done by British tech investor Matt Clifford to establish an “AI Opportunities Action Plan.” The plan aims to help the U.K. take advantage of the potential of AI.
The government is primarily seeking to expand data center capacity across the U.K. to boost developers of powerful AI models which rely on high-performance computing equipment hosted in remote locations to train and run their systems.
A target of increasing “sovereign,” or public sector, compute capacity in the U.K. by twentyfold by 2030 has been set. As part of that pledge, the government will begin opening access to the AI Research Resource, an initiative aimed at bolstering U.K. computing infrastructure.
Starmer’s administration last year canceled £1.3 billion of taxpayer-funded spending commitments towards two significant computing initiatives in order to prioritize other fiscal plans. The projects, an AI Research Resource and a next-generation “exascale” supercomputer, were pledges were made under Starmer’s predecessor, Rishi Sunak.
Sovereign AI has become a hot topic for policymakers, particularly in Europe. The term refers to the idea that technologies critical to economic growth and national security should be built and developed in the countries people are adopting them in.
To further bolster Britain’s computing infrastructure, the government also committed to setting up several AI “growth zones,” where rules on planning permission will be relaxed in certain places to allow for the creation of new data centers.
Meanwhile, an “AI Energy Council” formed of industry leaders from both energy and AI will be set up to explore the role of renewable and low-carbon sources of energy, like nuclear.
Building a challenger to OpenAI
The last major initiative the U.K. government proposed was to create homegrown AI “champions” of a similar scale to American tech giants responsible for the foundational AI models that power today’s generative AI tools such as OpenAI’s ChatGPT.
Britain plans to use the AI growth zones and a newly established National Data Library to connect public institutions — such as universities — to enhance the country’s ability to create “sovereign” AI models which aren’t reliant on Silicon Valley.
It’s worth highlighting that the U.K. faces serious challenges in its bid to create an effective OpenAI alternative. For one, several entrepreneurs in the country have bemoaned funding challenges that make it difficult for startups in the country to raise the kind of cash available to AI success stories.
Many U.K. founders and venture capitalists have called for the country’s pension funds to allocate a greater portion of their portfolios toward riskier, growth-focused startups — a reform the government has committed to pushing previously.
“In the U.K., there’s $7 trillion in this pocket,” Magnus Grimeland, CEO and founder of venture capital firm Antler, told CNBC in an interview last year. “Imagine if you take just 5% of that and allocate it to innovation — you solve the problem.”
U.K. tech leaders have nevertheless generally praised the government’s AI action plan. Zahra Bahrololoumi, Salesforce’s U.K. boss, told CNBC the plan is a “forward-thinking strategy,” adding she’s encouraged by the government’s “bold vision for AI and emphasis on transparency, safety and collaboration.”
Chintan Patel, Cisco’s chief technology officer in the U.K., said he’s “encouraged” by the action plan. “Having a clearly defined roadmap is critical for the UK to achieve its ambition to become an AI superpower and a leading destination for AI investment,” he said.
Britain doesn’t yet have formal regulations for AI. Starmer’s government has previously said it plans to draw up legislation for AI — but details remain thin.
Last month, the government announced a consultation on measures to regulate the use of copyrighted content to train AI models.
More generally, the U.K. is pitching a differentiated regulatory regime from the EU following Brexit as a positive factor — meaning, it can introduce regulatory oversight for AI but in a way that’s less strict than the EU, which has taken a more hard-line approach to regulating the technology with its AI Act.
Technology
What to expect from new crypto legislation on the crime prevention side of it
Published
21 hours agoon
January 12, 2025By
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Republican presidential nominee and former U.S. President Donald Trump gestures at the Bitcoin 2024 event in Nashville, Tennessee, U.S., July 27, 2024.
Kevin Wurm | Reuters
With the levers of power in Washington, D.C., about to change hands, a raft of pro-crypto legislation is expected from Congress and the Trump administration. To date, there’s been less focus on the cybersecurity side of the political effort, which could be an issue for crypto in relation to its popularity among a wary U.S. population.
Cryptocurrency, which includes not just bitcoin but ethereum, dogecoin, and others, has a faithful following among American adults. According to the Pew Research Center, 17% of American adults have traded in crypto, but that market share of American wallets has remained virtually unchanged since 2021. Meanwhile, according to a poll Pew conducted shortly before the election, 63% of adults say they have little to no confidence in crypto investing or trading, and don’t think cryptocurrencies are reliable and safe.
The incoming Trump administration has been touting its crypto bona fides, with a focus on the industry rather than the consumer.
“The No. 1 most important priority for the industry is to make sure they have a regulatory framework so that they can do business,” said Dusty Johnson (R-South Dakota), who helped author the Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century Act (FIT21) that addresses the treatment of digital assets under U.S. law. The law passed in the House with bipartisan support but has not been taken up by the Senate.
FIT21 did contain specific crypto-cybersecurity provisions, which Johnson predicts will be built upon in the new administration.
Glenn “GT” Thompson (R-Pennsylvania), Chairman of the House Committee on Agriculture and a co-author of FIT21, says the cybersecurity provisions in the bill are still key in the upcoming administration.
“FIT21 requires important cybersecurity safeguards for financial intermediaries engaging with digital assets,” Thompson said in a statement to CNBC, adding that FIT21 includes explicit provisions to ensure that regulated firms take steps to evaluate and mitigate cyber vulnerabilities to protect both the services they offer and assets they hold on behalf of their customers.
“These cybersecurity requirements are critical for protecting digital asset markets and market participants,” Thompson said.
Some experts, however, doubt that there will be as much action on the security side of the legislation, given that crypto proponents are closely advising the Trump administration.
“Personnel is policy,” says Jeff Le, vice president of global government affairs and public policy at Security Scorecard and a former assistant cabinet secretary in the California governor’s office. The top ranks of the incoming economic team, made up of SEC Chair-designate Paul Atkins, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, and Treasury Secretary-designate Scott Bessent, “have had a track record of supporting cryptocurrencies,” Le said.
Among other major posts in his second administration, President-elect Trump has appointed venture capital investor David Sacks to be his AI and crypto “czar.”
Crypto industry’s role in political realignment
The crypto industry donated significant sums to the 2024 election cycle, contributions that were not limited to the GOP, but focused more broadly on lawmakers with an industry-friendly view of crypto regulation. It’s likely that will continue to influence political calculations. The pro-crypto and bipartisan super PAC Fairshake and its affiliates have already raised over $100 million for the 2026 midterm elections, including commitments from Coinbase and Silicon Valley venture fund Andreessen Horowitz, an early backer of Coinbase. Top Andreessen Horowitz executives have been tapped for roles in the Trump administration.
“We have the most pro-crypto Congress ever [in] history, we have an extraordinarily pro-crypto president coming into office,” Faryar Shirzad, chief policy officer at Coinbase, recently told CNBC.
“It is rare to see cryptocurrency proponents advocate for increased regulation in the space, regardless of reason,” said Jason Baker, senior threat intelligence consultant at GuidePoint Security.
Baker says the anonymity and independence of cryptocurrency are often cited as primary benefits that legislation would curtail, and cryptocurrency’s decentralized nature makes it hard to regulate in a traditional sense.
“Given current signaling from the incoming administration and the interests of cryptocurrency proponents influential to the administration, we do not anticipate significant advances in cryptocurrency regulation within the next four years,” Baker said.
If there isn’t much action on regulation, there are some obvious ramifications for cybersecurity, he said, driven by the correlation between a pro-crypto Washington, D.C., and bullish bets by investors on digital assets.
“Cybercrime is often driven by benefits from increasing cryptocurrency value. In ransomware, for example, ransoms are commonly demanded in USD, but payments are made most frequently in bitcoin. When the value of bitcoin increases, cybercriminals will benefit,” Baker said.
The value of bitcoin has risen significantly over the past three months in what has been a risk-on market environment.
“Future de-emphasis on cryptocurrency regulation may positively signal that cybercrime operations in bitcoin remain viable and unlikely to suffer government disruption to operators in the space,” Baker said.
Cybercriminals have also been changing tactics to evade legislation and scrutiny, Baker added, switching to more under-the-radar cryptocurrencies like Monero.
Ransomware’s potential role in Congressional action
Baker predicts regulation centered on organizations issuing cryptocurrency payments — whether in the form of a ransom payment or for other purposes — is more likely achievable and palatable in the current regulatory environment.
“This could include, for example, increased requirements for reporting ransom payments when made, a policy which has been floated without gaining substantial traction in recent years,” Baker said. This approach can be argued as regulating end users and purposes rather than the underlying cryptocurrency itself.
In addition to ransomware payments to restore access to technology systems, there are other reasons why payment in cryptocurrency is common in digital extortion schemes, including to protect the identity and operational security of the criminal. Private organizations may also opt to use crypto to purchase leaked data or credentials which have been made available on illicit forums.
There could also be situations where private individuals attempt to report and receive payment for discovered vulnerabilities under a “bug bounty” program — whether voluntary or coerced (so-called “beg bounty”). They may request payment in cryptocurrency out of personal preference or general desire for privacy, and private organizations may or may not oblige.
“While there are doubtless other options for organizations to use cryptocurrency in some form, these are the primary forms we see on a regular or more frequent basis,” Baker said. “Though such actions would almost certainly have downstream impacts on cryptocurrency value by virtue of their impact on transaction volume,” Baker added.
Steve McNew, global leader of blockchain and digital assets at FTI Consulting, thinks some cyber-crypto legislation may happen, especially governing when a company victimized by a ransomware pays their attackers in cryptocurrency.
“There’s more than just public policy at issue,” said McNew. If a company has been compromised in a cyberattack and is required to make public disclosure of the ransoms it paid out, it can result in the company becoming a bigger future target for other criminal enterprises, McNew said. While it might make sense, on one hand, to provide disclosure as to where funds are going and what cryptocurrencies were used in a payment, doing so can put the company (and by extension its customers, employees and partners) in harm’s way.
“So, any policy decisions around cryptocurrency disclosures in this context will require balancing the need for transparency around the use of cryptocurrency in criminal matters alongside the risks such transparency might exacerbate,” McNew says.
Though FIT21 passed the House with broad bipartisan support, it did not address these issues specifically.
Le expects some legislation action that may attempt to address this topic. “The next Congress could see more traction for proposed legislation like Cryptocurrency Cybersecurity Information Sharing Act of 2022, which allows companies to share information regarding cybersecurity threats with the federal government and with one another,” he said.
Le said Congress may also revisit the work of outgoing Financial Services Chair Patrick McHenry (R-North Carolina) and Rep. Brittany Pettersen (D-Colorado) and the Ransomware and Financial Stability Act of 2024, which aimed at “strengthening the resilience of the U.S. financial system against ransomware attacks, establishing clear protocols for ransom payments, and ensuring that such payments, including those involving cryptocurrencies, are made within a controlled and legally compliant framework.”
But he added that it is unclear if the Trump administration will continue the Biden administration’s leadership role in the International Counter Ransomware Initiative, a 68-country coalition aimed at preventing the payments of ransomware.
The broader bitcoin governance battle
McNew says that many basic parameters surrounding crypto, even down to its definition, could hamstring legislation, even aspects of it intended to foster innovation and adoption of the industry.
“U.S. lawmakers have work to do in determining roles, responsibilities, and basic parameters for how the industry will be governed before any meaningful legislation can take hold,” McNew said. As an example, establishing a designated authority for digital assets is an imperative that has yet to be addressed.
Basic governance structure was a major sticking point during the Biden administration, and a primary reason Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler was a thorn in the side of the crypto industry.
“Lawmakers must decide whether responsibility will fall under the SEC, the CFTC, or another body. Issues around taxation and broker-dealer definitions for digital assets markets will also need to be defined and provided with a set of clear rules for legislation to be effective,” McNew said, adding that given how closely divided the House will be in the next session, it may be tough to craft an agreement.
Technology
Ahead of looming ban, TikTok creators ask fans to find them on Instagram or YouTube
Published
23 hours agoon
January 12, 2025By
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Jakub Porzycki | Nurphoto | Getty Images
Before Jack Nader started posting beauty videos on TikTok in 2023, he was working as a Starbucks barista in Chicago and living at home with his parents.
But after Nader, who’s now 21, started taking his videos seriously in April of that year, his TikTok account blew up. With more than half a million followers, he was able to generate enough income through brand sponsorships and his share of ad revenue that he quit his coffee shop gig and got his own apartment.
“This is my 9-to-5 job,” Nader, who said he makes between $1,000 and $12,000 per month as a creator, told CNBC. “This is what I do to make a living. This is how I pay for my groceries. This is how millions of small businesses make their money.”
Nader’s new reality, however, is far from stable. TikTok, which is owned by China’s ByteDance, is nearing a Jan. 19 deadline by which it has to be sold, or it faces a ban in the U.S. Like many other creators who have come to rely on TikTok, Nader has been urging his fans to find him on other social media apps before he potentially loses them altogether and the substantial income stream that they represent.
“Not everyone from my TikTok following is going to come over, and that’s really sad,” Nader said.
The TikTok risk has been present for years, but was amped up in April, after President Joe Biden signed a law that requires ByteDance to divest the short-form video app this month. If ByteDance fails to sell TikTok in time, Apple and Google will be forced by law to ensure their platforms no longer support the app in the U.S.
President-elect Donald Trump, who favored a TikTok ban during his first administration, has since flip-flopped on the matter. Late last month, he urged the Supreme Court to intervene and forcibly delay implementation of Biden’s ban to give him time to find a “political resolution.” His inauguration is Jan. 20.
Trump’s rhetoric on TikTok began to turn after he met in February with billionaire Jeff Yass, a Republican megadonor and a major investor in ByteDance who also owns a stake in the owner of Truth Social, Trump’s social media company.
The Supreme Court heard oral arguments from both sides on Jan. 10. During the more than two-hour session, justices peppered TikTok’s head lawyer with questions about the app’s ties to China and appeared generally unconvinced by TikTok’s main argument, that the law violates the free speech rights of its millions of individual users in the U.S.
On Thursday, businessman Frank McCourt’s internet advocacy group Project Liberty announced it had submitted a proposal to buy TikTok from ByteDance. Calling it, “The People’s Bid for TikTok,” the group said it would restructure the app to exist on an American-owned platform and prioritize users’ digital safety, though it didn’t disclose terms of its bid.
Jack Nader, 21 of Chicago, is a full-time TikTok creator who has begun moving his content from the Chinese-owned app onto Meta’s Instagram Reels and Alphabet’s YouTube Shorts.
Courtesy of Jack Nader
A ruling could come at an point. Nader isn’t waiting for a resolution to figure out what’s next.
He’s currently downloading four or five of his TikTok videos each day to save them as he migrates his content to Meta’s Instagram Reels and Alphabet’s YouTube Shorts. After downloading the videos, Nader re-edits them, optimizing the clips for each app.
“It took me over a year and a half to build the following that I have right now on TikTok to make it my full time job,” Nader said. “Now it’s kind of about rebuilding that entire brand on another platform, which is not ideal.”
Nader said he isn’t yet making any money from Reels or Shorts.
‘This isn’t just a silly app’
Danisha Carter, 27, is in a similar spot. A resident of Los Angeles, Carter has been a full-time creator since 2021, posting social commentary and lifestyle videos. Although she’d known about the TikTok ban for months, she said she had a wake-up call in the middle of the night in November.
“I need to start taking this seriously before I lose access to the platform that I built and the followers that I built,” Carter said, recalling her panicked realization. “I need to not waste any more time.”
Carter, who previously worked in luxury retail, has ended her TikTok videos by telling her followers that they can find her on YouTube, Instagram and Patreon.
“This isn’t just a silly app that people have been using to post dance videos,” said Carter, who makes about $4,000 per month on average from her TikTok activity. “It’s been remarkable in terms of changing people’s lives, changing people’s businesses.”
Danisha Carter, 27 of Los Angeles, is a full-time TikTok creator who has begun ending her videos by asking her fans to follow her on YouTube, Instagram and Patreon before the Jan. 19 law banning the Chinese-owned app takes effect.
Courtesy of Danisha Carter
TikTok could still find a way to stay operational in the U.S., but if the app does get suspended, YouTube, Facebook and Instagram are poised to be the biggest winners in the fallout, experts predict.
TikTok has about 115 million monthly active users in the U.S., well behind YouTube at 258 million and Facebook at 253 million, according to market intelligence firm Sensor Tower. Instagram has 131 million. Short videos, the kind that mimic clips on TikTok, are gaining viewership across those apps, accounting for about 41% of user time on Instagram, Sensor Tower data shows.
While TikTok has a smaller userbase in the U.S. and lower share of total ad dollars than its top rivals, it’s the dominant platform for creators, particularly those focused on short-form content.
Influencer marketing platform HyperAuditor defines a creator as a user with over 1,000 subscribers. TikTok has nearly 8.5 million people in the U.S. who fit that category, compared with about 5.2 million on Instagram and 1.1 million on YouTube, according to HyperAuditor.
Meanwhile, TikTok accounts for 9% of digital ad spend on social media platforms in the U.S., according to Sensor Tower, compared to 31% for Facebook, 25% for Instagram and 21% for YouTube.
Should TikTok go away, “this equates to billions of dollars potentially up in the air for competitors to seize,” Sensor Tower told CNBC in an email. Emarketer estimates that Meta and YouTube could grab about half of the reallocated dollars should a ban go into effect.
That type of market shift has taken place elsewhere. India banned TikTok in June 2020, when the app had about 150 million monthly users in the country. A year later, Instagram’s monthly active users in India had increased by 20% while YouTube’s had gone up 11% year-over-year, according to Sensor Tower estimates.
“That’s when we saw the biggest jump in Reels utilization ever,” said Meghana Dhar, a former Instagram executive who was at the company at the time of the India ban. “Should TikTok get banned and creators have to scramble, between YouTube Shorts and Instagram, a lot of creators are already hedging their bets.”
At Meta, leaders within Instagram scheduled numerous impromptu meetings on Friday after listening to the oral arguments before the Supreme Court, a person familiar with the matter told CNBC. Though many within the company had long expected TikTok would remain active in the U.S., leaders at Instagram began directing their teams to prepare for a potential influx of users should the ban go through, said the person, who asked not to be named due to confidentiality.
(L-R) Sarah Baus of Charleston, S.C., holds a sign that reads “Keep TikTok” as she and other content creators Sallye Miley of Jackson, Mississippi, and Callie Goodwin of Columbia, S.C., stand outside the U.S. Supreme Court Building as the court hears oral arguments on whether to overturn or delay a law that could lead to a ban of TikTok in the U.S., on January 10, 2025 in Washington, DC.
Andrew Harnik | Getty Images
Need to diversify
Kristina Nolan, vice president of media services at marketing agency DMi Partners, said the TikTok situation is the latest example of why social media creators should always be diversifying their followings.
“We’re consistently reminding them to create audience depth on other platforms,” said Nolan, whose agency works with more than 50,000 creators.
In recent weeks weeks, DMi has seen more of its creators start to migrate followers elsewhere in a variety of ways, Nolan said. But they have to be careful. Nolan said that some creators worry that TikTok will “shadow ban” them, or reduce their exposure to users, if the technology recognizes that they’re promoting profiles elsewhere.
Some creators will suggest followers find them on “fbook,” for example, rather than writing out Facebook. Others will bleep out just enough words to get the message to their followers while hoping to avoid TikTok’s detection, Nolan said. Some creators are teaming up with brands to incentivize users by holding prize giveaways for users who follow them on other apps, she added.
“They’re obviously not saying, ‘Come over to Instagram,'” Nolan said. “They’re like, ‘Go follow me on’ and they’re mouthing it.”
After working on a horse farm, Nealie Boschma, 27, was able to move to Los Angeles and live full-time as a creator after starting to post videos to TikTok in 2022.
Courtesy of Nealie Boschma
Even with multiple other options for finding large audiences, creators are worried about trying to rebuild their business and whether enough followers will migrate with them.
“Whatever is going to happen is going to happen, and we’re just going to make the most of it,” said Nealie Boschma, 27 of Los Angeles, who has been living as a full-time creator since 2022. “That’s just how I have to look at it, so I don’t panic.”
Despite the potential upheaval, Boschma, said she views the potential ban as an opportunity to expand her career and get more creative.
Boschma started making TikTok videos after quitting her job working on a horse farm, choosing to live off of her savings while experimenting as a creator. Boschma’s bet on herself worked and she’s earned enough to live in Los Angeles, paying for her own place and a car.
Now she’s making sure her TikTok fans see the links to her other profiles so they can find her on other apps, including YouTube. If the ban goes through, Boschma said she plans to make a video specifically asking her fans to follow her elsewhere.
It’s going to be quite a lift, as she currently has 2 million TikTok followers compared to just 278,000 on YouTube. But Boschma said she is going to try her hand at making longer-form videos, something she’s always wanted to explore.
“Whether TikTok goes away or not, I do think something will work out” Boschma said. “I’ll find my footing in other places, like I did on TikTok.”
WATCH: Supreme Court likely to uphold TikTok ban, says Christoff & Co. CEO Niki Christoff
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