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NEW YORK, NEW YORK – DECEMBER 29: Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on the last day of trading for the year on December 29, 2023 in New York City. The Dow was up slightly in morning trading in what has been a strong year for the stock market despite many economists predictions that the American economy would experience a recession. (Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images)

Spencer Platt | Getty Images News | Getty Images

This report is from today’s CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Like what you see? You can subscribe here.

What you need to know today

Last trading day of 2023
U.S. stocks fell Friday, disappointing investors who were hoping the S&P 500 would close the year on a record high. Still, it was a mighty good year for major indexes. Europe’s Stoxx 600 index added 0.2%, giving it a 12.6% gain for the year. Germany’s DAX posted more impressive gains, rising 20.31% despite the country’s gloomy economic outlook.

Nasdaq rebound
The Nasdaq Composite popped 43% in 2023, its best year since 2020. Only 2020 and 2009 saw bigger gains for the tech-heavy index, which is all the more impressive considering how the Nasdaq plunged 33% in 2022. What changed last year? The biggest story: Investors returned to risk, driven by a surge in generative artificial intelligence and the U.S. Federal Reserve halting rate hikes.

Bullish on bitcoin
Bitcoin rallied about 152% in 2023 despite high-profile criminal cases against cryptocurrency exchanges FTX and Binance. Bitcoin was last trading slightly above $44,000 — and many industry executives think the cryptocurrency’s poised for a new bull run, thanks to an event known as “halving” and the potential approval of a bitcoin exchange-traded fund in the U.S.

Price-sensitive consumers
U.S. companies are losing their pricing power. During the pandemic, consumers splurged on goods — and when the pandemic was over, services, like eating out and traveling, were in hot demand. Companies took advantage of that willingness to spend and increased their prices to pad their earnings. But in 2023, consumers are cutting back — and it’s affecting Wall Street.

[PRO] Things to look forward to
Investors have reason to be optimistic in 2024, writes CNBC’s Sarah Min. The three interest rate cuts that the Federal Reserve has penciled in for this year will likely be a tide that lifts all boats, meaning that last year’s Magnificent Seven-driven rally should broaden out. But not everyone’s so bullish about 2024.

The bottom line

Instead of ending the year with a bang by surpassing its all-time high, the S&P 500 let out a whimper — to paraphrase the poet T.S. Eliot’s famous lines — and fell 0.28% on the last trading day of 2023.

Other major indexes lost momentum and retreated too. The Dow Jones Industrial Average inched down 0.05% and the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.56%.

As with any market move, it’s hard to attribute any definitive reason to it. I think, however, the S&P’s December rally was too reliant on the Federal Reserve’s dovish pivot. Without further positive news, and with the optimism priced in already, the S&P didn’t have a concrete reason to rise further.

Moreover, several analysts have pointed out that stocks are already priced above their fair valuation; that is, the price of a stock may be too high relative to its earnings per share.

“Arguably, the bull market is overbought, and there are too many bulls,” Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research wrote. Echoing that sentiment, Sarat Sethi, managing partner at DCLA, told CNBC he thinks “valuations are stretched.”

Still, let’s not throw away the baby with the bathwater. Friday’s disappointing session aside, 2023 has been a banner year for a huge swathe of the market. Here are, in my book, the biggest winners and losers of last year:

Winners

  • U.S. indexes: For 2023, the S&P jumped 24.23%, the Dow gained 13.8% and the Nasdaq rocketed 43.42%.
  • Bitcoin: Shrugging off the high-profile criminal cases against FTX and Binance, bitcoin surged around 152%.
  • Gold: The precious metal recorded its first annual gain since 2020 of 13%, as geopolitical risks and peak interest rates made gold shinier to investors.

Losers

Although part of financial journalism necessarily involves making predictions, a quick glance at that list shows how difficult it is to do so. Going into 2023, many thought a recession was in the cards. Instead, markets were dealt a winning hand. Here’s hoping 2024 thwarts all the negative predictions and delivers positive surprises too.

Happy 2024!

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China threatens tariffs up to 25% on imports in retaliation for EU probe, US tariffs on EVs

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China threatens tariffs up to 25% on imports in retaliation for EU probe, US tariffs on EVs

Ten days after the Biden administration introduced a 100% tariff on on several categories of Chinese goods, including EVs, China has threatened to retaliate with tariffs on its own vehicle imports. Those threats are also targeted at the EU, as China’s Ministry is requesting the results of a recent probe while imploring Europe not to take the same action as the United States.

Trade tensions have continually risen among China, the European Union, and the US in recent years, with much of the drama surrounding imported EVs. Automakers in China, arguably the global leader in BEV technology and the most saturated market for New Energy Vehicles (NEVs), have begun expanding to new regions, including Europe.

Notable automakers like NIO, XPeng, BYD, and ZEEKR have all introduced multiple BEVs to countries in the EU, delivering advanced technology and luxury features at very competitive prices. The country has begun exporting so many EVs to Europe that automakers struggled to find ships to deliver them.

The new entry perturbed local EU automakers, some of which have lagged in EV adoption, inciting a probe into the Chinese automakers that the European Commission eventually determined have been “unfairly” subsidized as exports into the region. As a result, Europe has threatened tariffs on imports of vehicles built in China.

Across the pond, the US has already taken stern action on international trade with China, although none of the foreign automakers mentioned above have begun selling their EVs there. In late March, China’s Ministry of Commerce filed a complaint to the World Trade Organization targeting the US’ Inflation Reduction Act, deeming the policy unfair while imploring the US to play fair and follow the organization’s trade rules, citing the need for more EVs more quickly to battle climate change.

Instead, the Biden administration recently bolstered tariffs on goods originating from China, including solar panels, batteries, medical supplies, and, of course, EVs. Those tariffs have been increased from 25% to 100%, raising tensions between the two global superpowers.

As a response, China is threatening tariffs of its own with hopes the EU won’t opt for the same route the US took.

XPeng Germany
The G9 SUV, now available in Germany / Source: XPeng Motors / Weibo

China poised to introduced tariffs as high as 25%

Per Automotive News Europe, the EU’s China Chamber of Commerce has been informed of the foreign nation’s threats of 25% tariffs from “insiders.” If enacted, the tariffs could significantly affect the businesses of US and EU automakers exporting ICE vehicles into China and would most certainly fuel international tensions that are already strained.

The threats from China have been tactful as we approach a deadline the country has given the EU to share the results of its probe on imported BEVs and unfair subsidies. Per reports, The EU has until early June to declare whether it also intends to impose tariffs on products from China, but the European Union doesn’t appear fazed by the threats. Eurasia Group analysts shared a note earlier this week:

China’s retaliatory trade investigations and warnings are not deterring the EU. Brussels is eager to send a strong signal to Beijing with its EV probe that the EU will counteract Chinese subsidies and overcapacity.

According to China’s Ministry of Commerce tariff page, the tariff on vehicles with engines larger than 2.5 liters imported from Europe is 15%. However, import tallies in that segment from 2023, World Trade Organization policies permit China to increase that number to a 25% fee on every large engine vehicle coming in.

To show it is serious, China has also alluded to the possibility of imposing additional tariffs on products coming over from Europe, including wine and dairy products.

As the largest producer of electric vehicles in the world, China has cause for concern about the current and looming threats of tariffs from its international trade partners. Trust that the global market has an eye on this situation, which could prove detrimental to the speed at which EV adoption grows worldwide.

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Lucid (LCID) cuts US workforce by 6% ahead of Gravity electric SUV launch

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Lucid (LCID) cuts US workforce by 6% ahead of Gravity electric SUV launch

Lucid (LCID) is the latest EV maker to reveal job cuts to reduce costs. As part of a new restructuring plan, Lucid plans to reduce its US workforce by 6%, or about 400 employees.

Lucid cuts workforce amid new restructuring plan

In an 8-K filing Friday, Lucid announced a new restructuring plan, which includes cutting around 400 jobs.

CEO Peter Rawlinson emailed employees on May 24, 2024, explaining the new job cuts amid plans to restructure its US and contract workforce. Rawlinson said the reduction will “not impact our hourly manufacturing and logistics workforce.”

However, it will impact “employees at all levels, including leadership and mid-level management.”

The job cuts amount to about 6% of Lucid’s US workforce. Lucid expects to complete the new plan by the end of Q3 2024.

Under the new plan, which mainly consists of severance payments, employee benefits, and stock-based compensation, Lucid expects around $21 to $25 million in charges. About $19 to $23 million will be primarily reported in Q2, with most of the charges expected to be paid by the end of Q3 2024.

Lucid-cuts-workforce
Lucid Gravity (Source: Lucid)

Lucid expects most of the expenses to be cash expenditures. Meanwhile, changes to stock-based compensation are “not expected to be material,” according to Lucid.

Rawlinson explained that “letting go of our talented team members is difficult and a decision we did not take lightly” and thanked everyone who had helped the company grow.

Lucid-Air-Grand-Touring
2024 Lucid Air (Source: Lucid Motors)

The news comes ahead of what could be Lucid’s most important model yet. Lucid is set to launch production of its first electric SUV, the Gravity, by the end of the year. Lucid’s CEO said, “I’m confident Lucid will deliver the world’s best SUV and dramatically expand our total addressable market.”

Since the program is still losing money, “we must remain vigilant about costs.” He stressed, “Today’s decision is about positioning us for future growth.”

Lucid-cuts-workforce
(Source: Lucid)

Lucid set a new delivery record in the first quarter and is seeing the momentum continue into Q2. Rawlinson boasted, “I want to stress that the future is bright at Lucid.”

The news comes after several rivals, including Rivian, reduced their workforces in an effort to increase profits.

Lucid-cuts-workforce
Lucid (LCID) stock chart over the past 12 months (Source: TradingView)

Lucid’s stock is down around 4% following the news. LCID shares are now down over 65% over the past 12 months.

Electrek’s Take

Lucid generated $172.7 million in revenue in Q1, up from $149.4 million a year ago. Meanwhile, the EV maker reduced operational losses ($729.9 million vs $772.2 million) as it looks toward its next growth stage.

The Gravity is expected to open up new markets for Lucid, significantly expanding its addressable market.

With another $1 billion investment from Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund (PIF), Lucid ended the quarter with over $5 billion in liquidity.

Lucid expects to build around 9,000 vehicles this year, nearly the same as the 8,428 units made in 2023. Following the Gravity, Lucid plans to launch a new mid-size electric SUV that will expand its market drastically.

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Oil prices hit three-month lows, head for weekly loss as summer driving season kicks off

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Oil prices hit three-month lows, head for weekly loss as summer driving season kicks off

A Shell gas station on May 03, 2024 in Austin, Texas. 

Brandon Bell | Getty Images

Crude oil futures fell to three-month lows on Friday and are heading to a weekly loss as summer driving season gets underway with the Memorial Day holiday.

U.S. crude oil hit an intraday low of $76.15, the lowest level since Feb. 26. Global benchmark Brent fell to $80.65, the lowest level since Feb. 8. The two benchmarks are on pace for a weekly loss of about 4% and 3%, respectively.

Here are today’s energy prices:

  • West Texas Intermediate July contract: $76.67 a barrel, down 19 cents, or 0.25%. Year to date, U.S. oil is up 7%.
  • Brent July contract: $81.13 a barrel, down 23 cents, or 0.26%. Year to date, the global benchmark is up 5.3%.
  • RBOB Gasoline June contract: $2.45 a gallon, down 0.6%. Year to date, gasoline futures are up 16.7%.
  • Natural Gas June contract: $2.63 per thousand cubic feet, down 0.87%. Year to date, gas is up 4.6%.

“Macroeconomic developments have been failing to provide meaningful support for oil, which has its own problems to deal with,” said Tamas Varga, analyst at oil broker PVM, pointing to Russia overproducing in April despite commitments to slash production along with other OPEC+ members.

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WTI v. Brent

OPEC and its allies, led by Russia, will hold a virtual meeting on June 2 to review production policy. A coalition of OPEC+ members are voluntarily holding 2.2 million barrels per day off the market to support prices.

“Next week’s OPEC meeting is widely expected to roll over the current production ceiling, especially now that oil prices are in a relentless downtrend,” Varga said.

“But it would probably not be enough to unambiguously brighten the mood, simply because there is nearly 6 mbpd of supply cushion attached to the seemingly oversupplied market,” the analyst said.

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