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We’re into 2024, and the new MLB season is just a few months away. In the first half of free agency, we had some splashy moves — you might have heard that Shohei Ohtani signed a $700 million deal? — and plenty of smaller pickups. But plenty of MLB stars are still on the market, and lots of teams still have holes to fill. Which moves did we like? Which left us with more questions than answers? We asked ESPN MLB insiders to weigh in — and make one prediction for the deals still to come.


What’s your favorite move so far?

Bradford Doolittle: I should be clear that I’m not thinking of this as the best or most-impactful move. It’s simply the one that I’ve liked the most. And, as someone with a long affinity for life in the middle of the continent, I don’t get really excited when the game’s top players cluster in New York and Los Angeles. So my favorite transaction of the winter was Friday’s trade between Boston and Atlanta, with pitcher Chris Sale headed to the Braves with a briefcase full of cash (that’s how they handle the cash part of trades, right?) for infielder Vaughn Grissom. Even though Grissom isn’t an established big leaguer yet, that’s a real trade between two teams trying to win next season and acquiring players to help them do just that. Yes, money was a big part of the formula for both sides, but there were so many angles through which we could have looked at this player-for-player swap that it was fascinating to mull over. I wish we had a trade like that every week.

Alden Gonzalez: While all the attention — rightly — has been directed at the Los Angeles Dodgers this offseason, I’m going to take this time to celebrate another team in the National League West: the Arizona Diamondbacks — you know, the team that swept the Dodgers out of last year’s NL Division Series? The D-backs are a small-market team that could have easily followed the path of others by using the uncertainty over their regional sports networks (RSN) situation as a reason to cut costs. Instead, they’re capitalizing on an unlikely World Series berth by doubling down on their young core. Eduardo Rodriguez (given $80 million over four years) is a great addition behind Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly in the rotation. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (brought back on a three-year, $42 million deal) and Eugenio Suarez (acquired from a Seattle Mariners team that isn’t acting nearly as aggressively as it should) provide two much-needed right-handed power bats to fortify the lineup. They might not be done, either.

Jesse Rogers: Ohtani joining the Dodgers is too easy of an answer. Instead, I’ll pick the Dodgers’ next move, which established them as the modern-day New York Yankees. Adding pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto, along with Ohtani, was a boss move, just like the ones George Steinbrenner used to make in New York. Honorable mention goes to the aforementioned Yankees for adding Juan Soto. GM Brian Cashman has been on a multiyear mission to add a dangerous lefty and after cycling through names like Joey Gallo and Matt Carpenter, he finally landed one who could balance out his lineup. The Yankees enter 2024 with a fighting chance on offense — something they really didn’t possess the last couple of seasons despite having Aaron Judge and his greatness.

David Schoenfield: Yeah, let’s not overthink this: It’s Ohtani and especially the structure of the contract with all the deferred money that then allowed the Dodgers to go out and sign Yamamoto and trade for Tyler Glasnow (and sign him to a big extension). Yeah, I know, that’s one-point-something billion dollars and you can’t dismiss the risk, but it’s two potential aces added and that’s before Ohtani joins the rotation in 2025. On a smaller scale, I love the Boston Red Sox flipping an injury-prone Sale for six years of Grissom, who looks like a potential .300 hitter and leadoff hitter and should slide in nicely as the starting second baseman.


What move made you scratch your head?

Doolittle: The Chicago White Sox signing Erick Fedde. I’m not bagging on the ChiSox here, because they were far from the only team hot on Fedde. And the contract — two years, $15 million — is a bargain even if all he does is pitch just well enough to hold down a back-of-the-rotation slot and chew up some innings. But if Fedde pitches to his career MLB ERA (5.41) and WAR (almost precisely replacement level), then it’s a bad contract — you should be able to pluck any number of pitchers out of the minors and/or off the waiver wire to produce that. What befuddles me is how a guy with a fairly long track record of, well, not succeeding can remake himself in the marketplace because of one (albeit dominant) season in South Korea’s KBO league. I’m rooting for him because it’s a cool story, and what I’m really scratching my head over is my own confusion. If Fedde succeeds, it’ll be a lesson in … something.

Gonzalez: The reason came into clearer focus in the ensuing weeks, but I was legitimately shocked to learn — on the first night of the winter meetings — that the Mariners had traded away Jarred Kelenic to the Braves, using their once-prized outfield prospect mostly to shed the contracts of Evan White and Marco Gonzales. It was an early stunner that set the tone for their offseason (so far, at least). Seattle is an up-and-coming team that needs to fortify the top of its roster in hopes of competing in the AL West with the Texas Rangers, the reigning champions who could be even better this year, and a Houston Astros team that has been to seven consecutive American League Championship Series and returns almost the entirety of its 2023 roster. To do so, the Mariners desperately need impact hitters. So far, they’ve dealt Kelenic and Eugenio Suarez, opted against giving Teoscar Hernandez the qualifying offer and, as far as we know, haven’t really been in on Soto, Ohtani or Jung Hoo Lee. It appears, though president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto is certainly capable of surprises, that they’ll try to improve on the margins. Their payroll seemingly will stay right around where it finished this past season.

Rogers: My head-scratcher actually involves a team that hasn’t made a single major league move to their roster this offseason: the Chicago Cubs. Perhaps it’s just an issue of timing — there are plenty of players still available and more trades are bound to happen — but the calendar has turned and the Cubs haven’t signed or traded for a single player. Not one. After adding Craig Counsell as their manager, many assumed more action was to come. But the organization has stated that it’s a bit stuck in the middle; a decent prospect base is still a year or so away from producing in a big way. But an 83-win team — in a winnable division — needs corner infielders and a pitcher to just be competitive. The clock is ticking.

Schoenfield: It’s collectively what the Cincinnati Reds have done in signing Jeimer Candelario, Frankie Montas, Nick Martinez and Emilio Pagan for a combined $53 million in 2024 salary. Yes, we criticize small-market teams like the Reds for never spending and here they are, finally signing some free agents — and we’re saying we don’t like the moves. The truth is, I’m just not a big fan of this group. While the four players combined for 5.8 WAR in 2023 (with Montas injured for all but one relief appearance), they combined for just 2.4 WAR in 2022. Candelario is an odd fit for a team that already had infield depth and his batted-ball metrics in 2023 weren’t that good (expected batting average of .236); Pagan is a flyball reliever going to a home run park. If Montas is healthy and finds his 2021 form, maybe he turns into a steal, but I think the Reds are spending $53 million for about three wins in 2024. I hope I’m wrong, because I’d love to see the Reds compete for the NL Central title — but for $53 million you should be getting at least one star player.


What do you expect is the next domino to fall?

Doolittle: I’ve noticed the same thing as Jesse with the Cubs’ acquisition shutout, and I just can’t see it continuing much longer. So, the next domino is that the Cubs will make a move — any move. I thought hiring Counsell was a genius stroke (if more than a little cold-blooded), writing at the time that “On the first day of free agency, when available players can sign with new teams, the Cubs have already possibly made the highest-impact move of the winter.” There have been some awfully big moves this winter and I’m not sure the statement holds up, but I do know this: When I wrote it, I certainly didn’t expect it to be the Cubs’ only move of the offseason. As of now, the Cubs have neither signed an MLB free agent or traded for an MLB player. Every other team has done at least something. I’m sure president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer and his staff have tried to position themselves for a splash and they have been rumored to be in on some of the biggest names in the market. But the end result is what is: In terms of players, the Cubs own a big, fat zero at the moment. I expect that to change, and soon.

Gonzalez: This is more of a hunch than anything else, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see the free agencies of Blake Snell, Josh Hader and Cody Bellinger drag out a little longer. They’re all searching for big paydays, and I don’t know that that type of money is readily available for them at the moment. On that note, I’ll go with Yariel Rodriguez, the 26-year-old Cuban right-hander who has big stuff and could fit teams as either a starter or a reliever. Our own Enrique Rojas reported on Friday that the Toronto Blue Jays had emerged as favorites to land him. Baseball fans in the United States might not be familiar with him, but he — and another international pitcher, Japanese lefty Shota Imanaga — could end up as nice value plays for their new teams. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel had Rodriguez and Imanaga signing four-year contracts valued at $30 million and $68 million, respectively, at the start of the offseason.

Rogers: The easy answer is Imanaga, considering his negotiating window is closing soon. He has about a week to decide where he wants to pitch and when that happens, the pitching market should be on the move. It might take time for the biggest names to find new homes, but pitchers will start coming off the board. Imanaga’s signing should also activate the trade market, allowing teams to make their final pushes for hurlers like Dylan Cease and Shane Bieber.

Schoenfield: Snell, Jordan Montgomery and Bellinger are all represented by Scott Boras and he’s not afraid to ride negotiations out until the start of spring training. Still, it feels like the Giants are still desperate to spend some money beyond center fielder Jung Hoo Lee, so I think they’re going to open up the checkbook for Snell. It’s a gamble given Snell’s inconsistent results and durability in his career, but the Giants are in a position where they have to gamble on upside and, as a two-time Cy Young winner, Snell is that guy.

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Kiley McDaniel’s favorite Day 1 draft picks, biggest surprises and best available Day 2 prospects

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Kiley McDaniel's favorite Day 1 draft picks, biggest surprises and best available Day 2 prospects

With Day 1 of the 2025 MLB draft complete, it’s time to look at which picks in the first round stood out most.

After weeks of speculation about the various directions the Washington Nationals could go with the No. 1 pick, they surprised the industry by taking Oklahoma high school shortstop Eli Willits — and the Los Angeles Angels followed up with a surprising pick of their own at No. 2 by taking UC Santa Barbara pitcher Tyler Bremner

Though the nature of the baseball draft means that some of the picks we aren’t quite sure about on Day 1 will become clearer when we see how teams spread their bonus allotment around later in the draft, here are the early picks I liked the most and some eye-opening selections along with the top players still available entering Day 2.


Five favorite moves

Mariners and Pirates get their guys

The buzz leading up to the draft was that Kade Anderson was atop the Mariners’ draft board and Seth Hernandez was the top target (after Willits, who wasn’t going to get there) of the Pirates. Seattle was the other team taking a long look at Hernandez, but the shenanigans at the top two picks (more on that later) means that both Seattle and Pittsburgh got their preferred arms.

A’s select Arnold and Taylor

The Athletics had only two picks on Day 1 but received excellent values at each. Jamie Arnold was the top prospect in the draft entering the season and seemed primed to go somewhere between No. 2 and No. 8 after an uneven season. He somehow was the prospect left holding the short straw, falling to the 11th pick. Devin Taylor was in the mix at multiple picks in the comp round but lasted five selections into the second round.

Twins embrace risk with Quick and Young

The Twins took two hit-first college infielders as their first picks last year (Kaelen Culpepper and Kyle DeBarge), took another one in the 2023 second round (Luke Keaschall), and two more in the top two rounds in 2022 (Brooks Lee, Tanner Schobel) — and also took one with their first pick this year in Marek Houston.

What interested me though is what Minnesota did after that, taking big swings with the upside of Riley Quick (four potential plus pitches but below-average command) and Quentin Young (80-grade power potential with big questions on contact rate).

Phillies try to jump the reliever trade market?

Gage Wood has a chance to start long term but can also go straight to the upper minors — if not the big leagues — and potentially help the bullpen later this season, like a trade deadline addition. The Phillies’ next pick, Cade Obermueller, is another possible starter who also could move quickly as a lefty turning 22 later this month with two knockout pitches in his fastball/slider combo. Odds are good that at least one of them can provide big league value in the next 12 months if Philly wants to utilize them that way.

The Red Sox land Witherspoon, Phillips and Eyanson

The Red Sox are interested in creating more pitching depth and selected a number of interesting arms on Day 1. Kyson Witherspoon had a lot of interest in the top 10, but the Red Sox got him at No. 15.

He’ll need to sharpen his execution a notch and his short arm action is unique, but there’s midrotation upside. Marcus Phillips has a chance to start but could also bring another distinctive look as a late-inning arm with four plus pitches from a low slot and a triple-digit fastball. Anthony Eyanson is a different sort, with fringy fastball velocity but standout command along with a slider and splitter that keep hitters off-balance.

Five eye-openers

Eli Willits at No. 1

The buzz ahead of the draft was that there were three players in play for the top pick and Willits was my third-ranked player in the class, so the same group is what I would’ve been considering — and I love Willits as a player. The bonus will be a factor in evaluating how successful this pick will be viewed — I’ll guess it starts with an eight — but I think this will be seen as a solid decision, as long as Kade Anderson or Ethan Holliday don’t become stars.

Tyler Bremner at No. 2

The biggest piece of late buzz I was hearing is that Bremner was in play at No. 3 to the Mariners. I didn’t hear his name at all at No. 2 so that made this pick the first shocker in the draft.

Bremner was considered in this area (on a deal) because he could easily be the best pitcher in this class — but only if he can develop a better slider, which isn’t a small if. The Angels seem to have a thought about how to solve this, and how he progresses will be one of the more followed storylines of this draft.

Tigers take Yost and Oliveto

I like both players, but it’s fascinating that these two and the most-rumored prep hitter tied to Detroit that they didn’t take (Coy James, who had a tough summer) were all missing strong 2024 summer performances.

Jordan Yost and Michael Oliveto were the only two prep position players in the first-round mix who weren’t in the major national events on the summer circuit, thus creating a lot of uncertainty about how to project them.

The Tigers are right to assume this could create a potential quick gain in value if Yost and Oliveto can perform early in their pro careers, but I don’t remember seeing a team double down on lack of summer exposure in the early rounds.

Orioles take two catchers in the first round, and two pitchers in the second

It’s certainly a bit odd that the Orioles took two college catchers with their first two picks after taking another one (Ethan Anderson) in the second round last year. Obviously, teams don’t draft for big league need — the O’s already have Adley Rutschman — and they need at least two catchers at all four full season minor league affiliates, it’s just odd to see them invest in this position early multiple times. And after all of the position players they have drafted under Mike Elias, they did sneak in two arms on Day 1 with Joseph Dzierwa (a command-forward lefty) and J.T. Quinn (one of my favorite college relievers with the traits to start in pro ball).

Guardians lean into power

The Guardians often draft, or sign internationally, hit-first players who are often underpowered, with Steven Kwan a prominent example. They swerved a lot this year, taking Jace LaViolette with their first pick (I compare him to Cody Bellinger or Joey Gallo; he hit .258 this season) and Nolan Schubart (24% strikeout rate, 22% in-zone whiff rate) with their fifth pick on Day 1. Those two have big power and strong pull/lift rates, and LaViolette has the athleticism to play center field, so there’s real talent, it’s just not usually the type that the Guardians have targeted.


Best available for Day 2

Listed by top 250 draft rankings

43. Mason Neville, OF, Oregon
44. Matthew Fisher, RHP, Evansville Memorial HS (Ind.)
53. Josiah Hartshorn, LF, Orange Lutheran HS (Calif.)
55. Brock Sell, CF, Tokay HS (Calif.)
61. Jack Bauer, LHP, Lincoln Way East HS (Ill.)
69. Coy James, SS, Davie County HS (N.C.)
70. Alec Blair, CF, De La Salle HS (Calif.)
71. Mason Pike, RHP, Puyallup HS (Wash.)
72. Cam Appenzeller, LHP, Glenwood HS (Ill.)
73. Briggs McKenzie, LHP, Corinth Holders HS (N.C.)

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Shocks at No. 1 — and No. 2?! Winners, losers and takeaways from MLB draft Day 1

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Shocks at No. 1 -- and No. 2?! Winners, losers and takeaways from MLB draft Day 1

The first day of the 2025 MLB draft is complete! The Washington Nationals selected Eli Willits with the No. 1 pick, opting for the prep shortstop — who might be more likely to sign below slot — in a draft with no clear-cut top prospect. And there were plenty of other intriguing selections as the first three rounds unfolded Sunday night.

The Seattle Mariners had to have been thrilled to have Kiley McDaniel’s No. 1-ranked prospect, Kade Anderson, fall to them at No. 3, and Ethan Holliday was selected at No. 4 by his famous father’s former squad the Colorado Rockies.

We asked ESPN baseball insiders Alden Gonzalez, Jesse Rogers and David Schoenfield to break down their favorite and most head-scratching moves of the draft’s first night, as well as to predict which players will bring the most to their new teams in the long term.


A lot of us were thrown for a loop by the first two selections. What do you make of the Nationals taking Ethan Willits at No. 1 and the Angels picking Tyler Bremner at No. 2?

Gonzalez: I was stunned on both accounts. Though there was definitely some uncertainty around the Nationals’ approach, especially since the firing of GM Mike Rizzo, I didn’t see anybody, anywhere, projecting Willits to be their choice at No. 1 overall. But the Angels drafting Bremner was an even bigger risk. Kiley had him 18th in his latest ranking. Six pitchers were ranked ahead of him. But Bremner might be someone who can rise and impact their major league roster quickly, and the Angels are always looking for that.

Rogers: The first two picks really summed up the uncertainty of the entire draft. The Nationals’ faith in a 17-year-old will be tested over the coming years, but the pick will likely save them some money for later in this draft and give Willits time to grow. The same can be said of many of the top picks: They’re going to need time. There are far fewer sure things this year — though Bremner could be the exception. The Angles love to graduate their players quickly, and as a college arm, he could see the majors sooner rather than later. Like Willits, this could also be a cost-saving move for later spending.

Schoenfield: In a draft that not only lacked a sure-thing No. 1 overall pick but was viewed as weaker at the top than those of recent years, it’s perhaps not a huge surprise that the Nationals and Angels used their picks to strike likely underslot deals with Willits and Bremner, giving them money to spend later in the draft — which they can use on high school prospects who might have slipped, trying to buy them out from going to college. It’s a strategy teams have used with success over the years, so the drafts for the Nationals and Angels will have to be viewed in their totality and not just focused on these two players.


What was your favorite pick of the night — and which one had you scratching your head?

Gonzalez: The Rockies have done a lot of things wrong over these last few … uh, decades. But it was really cool to see them take Ethan Holliday at No. 4 after his father, Matt, starred in Colorado for so long. Outside of the top two picks, Ethan Conrad going 17th to the Cubs was my biggest surprise of the night. Kiley had him ranked 30th; others had him falling out of the first round entirely. There’s uncertainty coming off shoulder surgery. But Conrad, 21, put up a 1.238 OPS in 97 plate appearances before his season ended prematurely in March. And the dearth of college bats probably influenced a slight reach here.

Rogers: I’m loving Billy Carlson to the White Sox at No. 10. Though they lost 121 games last season, Chicago couldn’t pick higher than this spot per CBA rules — but the Sox might have gotten a top-five player. Carlson’s defense will play extremely well behind a sneaky good and young pitching staff that should keep the ball on the ground in the long term. Meanwhile, with the pick of the litter when it came to hitters — college outfielders and high school kids as well — the Pirates took a high school pitcher at No. 6. Seth Hernandez could be great, but they need hitting. A lot of it.

Schoenfield: The Mariners reportedly wanted LSU left-hander Kade Anderson all along, but they certainly couldn’t have been expecting to get him with the third pick. (Keep in mind that the Mariners were lucky in the first place to land the third pick in the lottery, so they added some good fortune on top of good luck.) They get the most polished college pitcher in the draft, one who should move quickly — and perhaps make it a little easier for Jerry Dipoto to dip into his farm system and upgrade the big league roster at the trade deadline. Even though I understand why the Angels did it, Bremner still seems a little questionable. With the second pick, you want to go for a home run, and the consensus is that Holliday or even Anderson is more likely to be a more impactful major leaguer. Bremner’s lack of a third plus pitch is an issue, and you have to wonder if the Angels are relying too much on his control — which, yes, should allow him to get to the majors — and ignoring the possible lack of upside.


Who is the one player you’d like to plant your flag on as the biggest steal of this draft?

Gonzalez: Seth Hernandez, who went sixth to the Pirates and should someday share a rotation with Paul Skenes and Jared Jones. High school pitchers are incredibly risky, especially when taken so early in the draft. But Hernandez is a great athlete who already throws hard, boasts a plus changeup and showed improvement with his breaking ball this spring. He’ll go the Hunter Greene route, from standout high school pitcher to major league ace.

Rogers: Jamie Arnold will look like a steal at No. 11, especially when he debuts in the majors well before many of the players taken around him. I’m not worried about the innings drop in 2025 — not when he was striking out 119 hitters and walking just 27. The A’s need to polish him up but will be pleased by how consistent he’ll be. You can’t go wrong with a college lefty from an ACC school — at least, the A’s didn’t.

Schoenfield: I’m going with Billy Carlson with the 10th pick — with the admitted caveat that the White Sox haven’t exactly been stellar at developing hitters. But Carlson looks like an elite defensive shortstop with plus power, and that alone can make him a valuable major leaguer. If the hit tool comes along, we’re looking at a potential star. OK, he’s Bobby Witt Jr. lite? That’s still an All-Star player.


What’s your biggest takeaway from Day 1 of this draft?

Gonzalez: The Nationals throwing a wrench into the proceedings by selecting Willits. It was a surprising choice, but in their minds an easy one. Interim general manager Mike DeBartolo called Willits the best hitter and best fielder available. And in a draft devoid of can’t-miss, high-impact talent, Willits is no doubt a solid pick — a polished hitter who should stick at shortstop and might consistently hit 20 homers and steal 20 bases at a premium position. He also might come under slot, allowing flexibility later in the draft. But his selection is what allowed Anderson to reach the Mariners at No. 3 and prompted the Rockies to draft Holliday at No. 4, among other dominoes. It set a really interesting tone.

Rogers: Things change quickly in baseball. Whereas college hitters are usually the safest bets early in the draft, this year high school position players dominated. (And they all play shortstop, at least for now.) Athleticism has returned to baseball, and draft rooms are acting accordingly.

Schoenfield: I’m agreeing with Jesse. The selection of that many prep shortstops stood out — and they all seem to hit left-handed and run well, and some of them have big power potential and a cannon for an arm. Look, the hit tool is the most important and the hardest to scout and project, so not all these kids are going to make it, but their potential is exciting and, to Jesse’s point, their wide range of tools is showing that baseball is still drawing top athletes to the sport.

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2025 MLB Home Run Derby: The field is set! Who is the slugger to beat?

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2025 MLB Home Run Derby: The field is set! Who is the slugger to beat?

The 2025 MLB All-Star Home Run Derby is fast approaching — and the field is set.

Braves hometown hero Ronald Acuna Jr. became the first player to commit to the event, which will be held at Truist Park in Atlanta on July 14 (8 p.m. ET on ESPN). He was followed by MLB home run leader Cal Raleigh of the Seattle Mariners, James Wood of the Washington Nationals, Byron Buxton of the Minnesota Twins, Oneil Cruz of the Pittsburgh Pirates, Junior Caminero of the Tampa Bay Rays, Brent Rooker of the Athletics and Jazz Chisholm Jr. of the New York Yankees.

On Friday, however, Acuna was replaced by teammate Matt Olson.

With all the entrants announced, let’s break down their chances at taking home this year’s Derby prize.

Full All-Star Game coverage: How to watch, schedule, rosters, more


2025 home runs: 17 | Longest: 434 feet

Why he could win: Olson is a late replacement for Acuna as the home team’s representative at this year’s Derby. Apart from being the Braves’ first baseman, however, Olson also was born in Atlanta and grew up a Braves fan, giving him some extra motivation. The left-handed slugger led the majors in home runs in 2023 — his 54 round-trippers that season also set a franchise record — and he remains among the best in the game when it comes to exit velo and hard-hit rate.

Why he might not: The home-field advantage can also be a detriment if a player gets too hyped up in the first round. See Julio Rodriguez in Seattle in 2023, when he had a monster first round, with 41 home runs, but then tired out in the second round.


2025 home runs: 36 | Longest: 440 feet

Why he could win: It’s the season of Cal! The Mariners’ catcher is having one of the greatest slugging first halves in MLB history, as he’s been crushing mistakes all season . His easy raw power might be tailor-made for the Derby — he ranks in the 87th percentile in average exit velocity and delivers the ball, on average, at the optimal home run launch angle of 23 degrees. His calm demeanor might also be perfect for the contest as he won’t get too amped up.

Why he might not: He’s a catcher — and one who has carried a heavy workload, playing in all but one game this season. This contest is as much about stamina as anything, and whether Raleigh can carry his power through three rounds would be a concern. No catcher has ever won the Derby, with only Ivan Rodriguez back in 2005 even reaching the finals.


2025 home runs: 24 | Longest: 451 feet

Why he could win: He’s big, he’s strong, he’s young, he’s awesome, he might or might not be able to leap tall buildings in a single bound. This is the perfect opportunity for Wood to show his talent on the national stage, and he wouldn’t be the first young player to star in the Derby. He ranks in the 97th percentile in average exit velocity and 99th percentile in hard-hit rate, so he can still muscle the ball out in BP even if he slightly mishits it. His long arms might be viewed as a detriment, but remember the similarly tall Aaron Judge won in 2017.

Why he might not: His natural swing isn’t a pure uppercut — he has a pretty low average launch angle of just 6.2 degrees — so we’ll see how that plays in a rapid-fire session. In real games, his power is primarily to the opposite field, but in a Home Run Derby you can get more cheapies pulling the ball down the line.


2025 home runs: 20 | Longest: 479 feet

Why he could win: Buxton’s raw power remains as impressive as nearly any hitter in the game. He crushed a 479-foot home run earlier this season and has four others of at least 425 feet. Indeed, his “no doubter” percentage — home runs that would be out of all 30 parks based on distance — is 75%, the highest in the majors among players with more than a dozen home runs. His bat speed ranks in the 89th percentile. In other words, two tools that could translate to a BP lightning show.

Why he might not: Buxton is 31 and the Home Run Derby feels a little more like a younger man’s competition. Teoscar Hernandez did win last year at age 31, but before that, the last winner older than 29 was David Ortiz in 2010, and that was under much different rules than are used now.


2025 home runs: 16 | Longest: 463 feet

Why he could win: If you drew up a short list of players everyone wants to see in the Home Run Derby, Cruz would be near the top. He has the hardest-hit ball of the 2025 season, and the hardest ever tracked by Statcast, a 432-foot missile of a home run with an exit velocity of 122.9 mph. He also crushed a 463-foot home run in Anaheim that soared way beyond the trees in center field. With his elite bat speed — 100th percentile — Cruz has the ability to awe the crowd with a potentially all-time performance.

Why he might not: Like all first-time contestants, can he stay within himself and not get too caught up in the moment? He has a long swing, which will result in some huge blasts, but might not be the most efficient for a contest like this one, where the more swings a hitter can get in before the clock expires, the better.


2025 home runs: 23 | Longest: 425 feet

Why he could win: Although Caminero was one of the most hyped prospects entering 2024, everyone kind of forgot about him heading into this season since he didn’t immediately rip apart the majors as a rookie. In his first full season, however, he has showed off his big-time raw power — giving him a chance to become just the third player to reach 40 home runs in his age-21 season. He has perhaps the quickest bat in the majors, ranking in the 100th percentile in bat speed, and his top exit velocity ranks in the top 15. That could translate to a barrage of home runs.

Why he might not: In game action, Caminero does hit the ball on the ground quite often — in fact, he’s on pace to break Jim Rice’s record for double plays grounded into in a season. If he gets out of rhythm, that could lead to a lot of low line drives during the Derby instead of fly balls that clear the fences.


2025 home runs: 19 | Longest: 440 feet

Why he could win: The Athletics slugger has been one of the top power hitters in the majors for three seasons now and is on his way to a third straight 30-homer season. Rooker has plus bat speed and raw power, but his biggest strength is an optimal average launch angle (19 degrees in 2024, 15 degrees this season) that translates to home runs in game action. That natural swing could be picture perfect for the Home Run Derby. He also wasn’t shy about saying he wanted to participate — and maybe that bodes well for his chances.

Why he might not: Rooker might not have quite the same raw power as some of the other competitors, as he has just one home run longer than 425 feet in 2025. But that’s a little nitpicky, as 11 of his home runs have still gone 400-plus feet. He competed in the college home run derby in Omaha while at Mississippi State in 2016 and finished fourth.


2025 home runs: 17 | Longest: 442 feet

Why he could win: Chisholm might not be the most obvious name to participate, given his career high of 24 home runs, but he has belted 17 already in 2025 in his first 61 games after missing some time with an injury. He ranks among the MLB leaders in a couple of home run-related categories, ranking in the 96th percentile in expected slugging percentage and 98th percentile in barrel rate. His raw power might not match that of the other participants, but he’s a dead-pull hitter who has increased his launch angle this season, which might translate well to the Derby, even if he won’t be the guy hitting the longest home runs.

Why he might not: Most of the guys who have won this have been big, powerful sluggers. Chisholm is listed at 5-foot-11, 184 pounds, and you have to go back to Miguel Tejada in 2004 to find the last player under 6 foot to win.

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