MLB free agency reset: Moves we liked, ones we didn’t, what’s next
We’re into 2024, and the new MLB season is just a few months away. In the first half of free agency, we had some splashy moves — you might have heard that Shohei Ohtani signed a $700 million deal? — and plenty of smaller pickups. But plenty of MLB stars are still on the market, and lots of teams still have holes to fill. Which moves did we like? Which left us with more questions than answers? We asked ESPN MLB insiders to weigh in — and make one prediction for the deals still to come.
What’s your favorite move so far?
Bradford Doolittle: I should be clear that I’m not thinking of this as the best or most-impactful move. It’s simply the one that I’ve liked the most. And, as someone with a long affinity for life in the middle of the continent, I don’t get really excited when the game’s top players cluster in New York and Los Angeles. So my favorite transaction of the winter was Friday’s trade between Boston and Atlanta, with pitcher Chris Sale headed to the Braves with a briefcase full of cash (that’s how they handle the cash part of trades, right?) for infielder Vaughn Grissom. Even though Grissom isn’t an established big leaguer yet, that’s a real trade between two teams trying to win next season and acquiring players to help them do just that. Yes, money was a big part of the formula for both sides, but there were so many angles through which we could have looked at this player-for-player swap that it was fascinating to mull over. I wish we had a trade like that every week.
Alden Gonzalez: While all the attention — rightly — has been directed at the Los Angeles Dodgers this offseason, I’m going to take this time to celebrate another team in the National League West: the Arizona Diamondbacks — you know, the team that swept the Dodgers out of last year’s NL Division Series? The D-backs are a small-market team that could have easily followed the path of others by using the uncertainty over their regional sports networks (RSN) situation as a reason to cut costs. Instead, they’re capitalizing on an unlikely World Series berth by doubling down on their young core. Eduardo Rodriguez (given $80 million over four years) is a great addition behind Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly in the rotation. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (brought back on a three-year, $42 million deal) and Eugenio Suarez (acquired from a Seattle Mariners team that isn’t acting nearly as aggressively as it should) provide two much-needed right-handed power bats to fortify the lineup. They might not be done, either.
Jesse Rogers: Ohtani joining the Dodgers is too easy of an answer. Instead, I’ll pick the Dodgers’ next move, which established them as the modern-day New York Yankees. Adding pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto, along with Ohtani, was a boss move, just like the ones George Steinbrenner used to make in New York. Honorable mention goes to the aforementioned Yankees for adding Juan Soto. GM Brian Cashman has been on a multiyear mission to add a dangerous lefty and after cycling through names like Joey Gallo and Matt Carpenter, he finally landed one who could balance out his lineup. The Yankees enter 2024 with a fighting chance on offense — something they really didn’t possess the last couple of seasons despite having Aaron Judge and his greatness.
David Schoenfield: Yeah, let’s not overthink this: It’s Ohtani and especially the structure of the contract with all the deferred money that then allowed the Dodgers to go out and sign Yamamoto and trade for Tyler Glasnow (and sign him to a big extension). Yeah, I know, that’s one-point-something billion dollars and you can’t dismiss the risk, but it’s two potential aces added and that’s before Ohtani joins the rotation in 2025. On a smaller scale, I love the Boston Red Sox flipping an injury-prone Sale for six years of Grissom, who looks like a potential .300 hitter and leadoff hitter and should slide in nicely as the starting second baseman.
What move made you scratch your head?
Doolittle: The Chicago White Sox signing Erick Fedde. I’m not bagging on the ChiSox here, because they were far from the only team hot on Fedde. And the contract — two years, $15 million — is a bargain even if all he does is pitch just well enough to hold down a back-of-the-rotation slot and chew up some innings. But if Fedde pitches to his career MLB ERA (5.41) and WAR (almost precisely replacement level), then it’s a bad contract — you should be able to pluck any number of pitchers out of the minors and/or off the waiver wire to produce that. What befuddles me is how a guy with a fairly long track record of, well, not succeeding can remake himself in the marketplace because of one (albeit dominant) season in South Korea’s KBO league. I’m rooting for him because it’s a cool story, and what I’m really scratching my head over is my own confusion. If Fedde succeeds, it’ll be a lesson in … something.
Gonzalez: The reason came into clearer focus in the ensuing weeks, but I was legitimately shocked to learn — on the first night of the winter meetings — that the Mariners had traded away Jarred Kelenic to the Braves, using their once-prized outfield prospect mostly to shed the contracts of Evan White and Marco Gonzales. It was an early stunner that set the tone for their offseason (so far, at least). Seattle is an up-and-coming team that needs to fortify the top of its roster in hopes of competing in the AL West with the Texas Rangers, the reigning champions who could be even better this year, and a Houston Astros team that has been to seven consecutive American League Championship Series and returns almost the entirety of its 2023 roster. To do so, the Mariners desperately need impact hitters. So far, they’ve dealt Kelenic and Eugenio Suarez, opted against giving Teoscar Hernandez the qualifying offer and, as far as we know, haven’t really been in on Soto, Ohtani or Jung Hoo Lee. It appears, though president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto is certainly capable of surprises, that they’ll try to improve on the margins. Their payroll seemingly will stay right around where it finished this past season.
Rogers: My head-scratcher actually involves a team that hasn’t made a single major league move to their roster this offseason: the Chicago Cubs. Perhaps it’s just an issue of timing — there are plenty of players still available and more trades are bound to happen — but the calendar has turned and the Cubs haven’t signed or traded for a single player. Not one. After adding Craig Counsell as their manager, many assumed more action was to come. But the organization has stated that it’s a bit stuck in the middle; a decent prospect base is still a year or so away from producing in a big way. But an 83-win team — in a winnable division — needs corner infielders and a pitcher to just be competitive. The clock is ticking.
Schoenfield: It’s collectively what the Cincinnati Reds have done in signing Jeimer Candelario, Frankie Montas, Nick Martinez and Emilio Pagan for a combined $53 million in 2024 salary. Yes, we criticize small-market teams like the Reds for never spending and here they are, finally signing some free agents — and we’re saying we don’t like the moves. The truth is, I’m just not a big fan of this group. While the four players combined for 5.8 WAR in 2023 (with Montas injured for all but one relief appearance), they combined for just 2.4 WAR in 2022. Candelario is an odd fit for a team that already had infield depth and his batted-ball metrics in 2023 weren’t that good (expected batting average of .236); Pagan is a flyball reliever going to a home run park. If Montas is healthy and finds his 2021 form, maybe he turns into a steal, but I think the Reds are spending $53 million for about three wins in 2024. I hope I’m wrong, because I’d love to see the Reds compete for the NL Central title — but for $53 million you should be getting at least one star player.
What do you expect is the next domino to fall?
Doolittle: I’ve noticed the same thing as Jesse with the Cubs’ acquisition shutout, and I just can’t see it continuing much longer. So, the next domino is that the Cubs will make a move — any move. I thought hiring Counsell was a genius stroke (if more than a little cold-blooded), writing at the time that “On the first day of free agency, when available players can sign with new teams, the Cubs have already possibly made the highest-impact move of the winter.” There have been some awfully big moves this winter and I’m not sure the statement holds up, but I do know this: When I wrote it, I certainly didn’t expect it to be the Cubs’ only move of the offseason. As of now, the Cubs have neither signed an MLB free agent or traded for an MLB player. Every other team has done at least something. I’m sure president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer and his staff have tried to position themselves for a splash and they have been rumored to be in on some of the biggest names in the market. But the end result is what is: In terms of players, the Cubs own a big, fat zero at the moment. I expect that to change, and soon.
Gonzalez: This is more of a hunch than anything else, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see the free agencies of Blake Snell, Josh Hader and Cody Bellinger drag out a little longer. They’re all searching for big paydays, and I don’t know that that type of money is readily available for them at the moment. On that note, I’ll go with Yariel Rodriguez, the 26-year-old Cuban right-hander who has big stuff and could fit teams as either a starter or a reliever. Our own Enrique Rojas reported on Friday that the Toronto Blue Jays had emerged as favorites to land him. Baseball fans in the United States might not be familiar with him, but he — and another international pitcher, Japanese lefty Shota Imanaga — could end up as nice value plays for their new teams. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel had Rodriguez and Imanaga signing four-year contracts valued at $30 million and $68 million, respectively, at the start of the offseason.
Rogers: The easy answer is Imanaga, considering his negotiating window is closing soon. He has about a week to decide where he wants to pitch and when that happens, the pitching market should be on the move. It might take time for the biggest names to find new homes, but pitchers will start coming off the board. Imanaga’s signing should also activate the trade market, allowing teams to make their final pushes for hurlers like Dylan Cease and Shane Bieber.
Schoenfield: Snell, Jordan Montgomery and Bellinger are all represented by Scott Boras and he’s not afraid to ride negotiations out until the start of spring training. Still, it feels like the Giants are still desperate to spend some money beyond center fielder Jung Hoo Lee, so I think they’re going to open up the checkbook for Snell. It’s a gamble given Snell’s inconsistent results and durability in his career, but the Giants are in a position where they have to gamble on upside and, as a two-time Cy Young winner, Snell is that guy.
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Ryan McGee, ESPN Senior Writer
Inspirational thought of the week:
“Honestly, when we lose, I don’t even get in the shower until early this morning. I’ll just be mad. I just brush my teeth. It’s like, I don’t deserve soap.”
— Syracuse head coach Fran Brown
Here at Bottom 10 Headquarters, located behind the “sorry, not sorry” bouquet of water hemlocks sent to the Big 12 officiating office from Utah athletic director Mark Harlan, we know all too well the sting of losing football games. We see it every week in every game we watch.
Yeah, yeah, we know what you’re thinking. “Come on, dummy, someone loses every game that anyone watches.” That’s true. At least now it is. We are also old enough to remember when games ended in ties. That was way worse.
But here in the Bottom 10 Cinematic Universe, losses are worse because that’s all you experience. You’d think we’d get used to it, numb from the pain like when you keep accidentally biting that same spot on your tongue to the point that it just becomes sensory free. But instead, it’s like Bruce Banner explained about being the Hulk: “You see, I don’t get a suit of armor. I’m exposed. Like a nerve. It’s a nightmare.”
However, as we learned in “Age of Ultron,” even after one of his worst losses, Bruce Banner does take a shower. So, Coach Brown, take it from us, in a world where every team has a helluva lot more losses than Syracuse … dude, wash up. Seriously. We can smell you from here. And we’re in Kent, Ohio.
With apologies to Mr. Clean, former Miami (Ohio) quarterback Mike Bath, former Southern Illinois running back Wash Henry and Steve Harvey, here are the post-Week 11 Bottom 10 rankings.
The Golden(plated) Flashes are still America’s last winless FBS team, losing their 18th straight game when they were edged by Ohio 41-0. Now they travel to My Hammy of Ohio, where they are given a 2.8% chance to win by the ESPN Analytics Ouija board, er, I mean Matchup Predictor. But honestly, that game will only be the appetizer ahead of the, yes, Week 13 main course that is the Wagon Wheel showdown with Akronmonious. And by appetizer we mean way-past-the-expiration-date freezer-burned mini-pizza bagels.
The New Owls not only used their talons to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory at UTEP, losing in double overtime, they earned Bottom 10 Bonus Points for firing their head coach — and during their first year as an FBS team, no less. Though the AD issued a statement that Brian Bohannon had “stepped down,” Bohannon himself responded on social media: “Contrary to what’s been reported, I want to be clear that I did not step down.” But there is no confusion as to whether the Owls have stepped up or down in these rankings, where every move up is also a move down.
Brett Favre Funding U. lost to We Are Marshall 37-3, meaning all eight of their defeats this season have been by double digits. In related news, I also received double digit political texts on Election Day — and one of those was from Favre. No, for real. I wonder, did he cover the data charges himself or did he steal change from the donation jar at his grocery store checkout?
Sometimes in this life we are asked to do things that go against the fiber of our being. Like taking your daughter to the concert of an artist you’ve never heard of. Or me having to use Earth’s most annoying instrument, the leaf blower. This weekend this team of Minutemen will be asked to try to defeat Liberty.
5. The Sunshine State
The Coveted Fifth Spot has never been more crowded. The FBS, FCS and NFL teams of Florida posted a 1-11 record over the weekend, salvaged only by the Miami Dolphins’ win over the Los Angeles Rams on “Monday Night Football.” UC(not S)F, US(not C)F, FA(not I)U, Stetson, Florida A&M and Bethune-Cookman all lost, led in misery by the Wildcats’ five-overtime loss to Southern. The Flori-duh Gate Doors celebrated the announced retaining of coach Billy Napier by losing to Texas in a squeaker 49-17. And My Hammy of Florida finally spotted an opponent a lead too large for a Cam Ward comeback and took its first loss of the season, falling to unranked Georgia Tech. If only someone else in the state could relate to that …
The Semi-No’s are continuing to work around the Coveted Fifth Spot by earning their Bottom 10 keep the old-fashioned way, not only losing to semi/sorta/kinda ACC member Notre Dame by a scant 52-3, but also earning a pile of their own Bottom 10 Bonus Points not by firing head coach Mike Norvell, but because Norvell fired both his offensive and defensive coordinators and a wide receivers coach. In related news, over the weekend a friend of mine steered his bass boat into a giant pile of sharp rocks and reacted by throwing his shirt and hat overboard.
It was three weekends ago that the Buttermakers lost to then-second-ranked Oregon 35-0. On Saturday, they lost to then-second-ranked Ohio State 45-0. Now they play sixth-ranked Penn State, and in two weeks end their season playing currently eighth-ranked Indiana. We have to assume that a team of professors from Purdue’s legendary mechanical engineering department is studying this experience as a way to assess the stress put on a school bus that is attempting to drive over a lava field covered in landmines.
The Minors have a weekend off to continue their post-Kennesaw victory party. And what’s the best way to snap yourself out of a two-week hangover? Hair of the dog? A cold bucket of water over the head? How about the hair of a coontick hound and a bucket of water from the river during a Week 13 trip to Neyland Stadium to play Tennessee?
Whatever is left of UTEP after Knoxville will then play whatever is left of the Other Aggies after their Week 12 trip to face the OG Aggies of Texas A&M. If there’s any justice in this world, then the loser and/or winner of that Aggie Bowl would go on to play …
The Other Other Aggies lost to the one-loss team the nation forgot about, Warshington State. But if you consider the week before that, we find a Bottom 10 conundrum. Utah State beat WhyOMGing? but the week before that lost to Whew Mexico by five points. Meanwhile, Wyoming, who lost to Utah State two weeks ago, spent last weekend beating New Mexico by five points. Perhaps we will be given some clarity when Wyoming ends the year at Washington State. Or perhaps we will have already given up. As so many here in the Bottom 10 seem to do.
Waiting list: Miss Sus Hippie State, Georgia State Not Southern, FA(not I)U, Akronmonious, Meh-dle Tennessee, WhyOMGing?, Temple of Doom, Living on Tulsa Time, You A Bee?, Standfird, people who put all those election signs up but now won’t take them down.
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