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The college football postseason is nearly over, and you know what that means. It’s time to get ahead of ourselves and start thinking about next season. Which teams are doomed, and which teams are poised to take advantage of the new, expanded playoff format? Who should we expect to win the Heisman? Does bowl season stink now, or will it be better next year than it’s ever been before?

Let’s overreact.

Ole Miss will challenge for a spot in the expanded CFP

The Lane Train is rolling into 2024 as Ole Miss will have legitimate aspirations to make its first-ever CFP appearance. Even before the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl, the Rebels were having a very good December, as arguably no team had been a bigger winner in adding transfers and keeping top players. The Rebels added notable intra-SEC transfers like Texas A&M defensive lineman Walter Nolen, Tennessee edge Tyler Baron, Florida edge Princely Umanmielen, Mississippi State cornerback Decamerion Richardson and South Carolina wide receiver Antwane “Juice” Wells.

Ole Miss then thrashed Penn State 38-25 in Atlanta, holding a double-digit lead for most of the second half. Quarterback Jaxson Dart, who will return to Ole Miss this coming season, lit up the nation’s No. 1 defense for 379 pass yards and three touchdowns. Tight end Caden Prieskorn and wide receiver Tre Harris, who also are both coming back to Lane Kiffin’s offense, combined for 17 receptions and 270 receiving yards. The Rebels suffered a blow Thursday when star running back Quinshon Judkins announced he would enter the portal, but the overall personnel picture is good. Coach Kiffin’s addition of defensive coordinator Pete Golding has been essential both on the field and in recruiting. After a year where Kiffin quieted some chatter about his inability to win the biggest games, he will enter a season with his most talented and experienced team, and a chance to make history. — Adam Rittenberg


The Buckeyes need to keep hitting the portal

Ohio State lost 14-3 against Missouri in the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic and were held to 106 yards passing and 97 yards rushing. The Buckeyes did that without quarterback Kyle McCord, who transferred to Syracuse, star receiver Marvin Harrison Jr., who opted out of the game as he makes his way to the NFL, and a handful of others.

The Ohio State staff saw safeties Cameron Martinez and Kye Stokes enter the transfer portal, as well as corner Jyaire Brown. It’s easy to say the game only went the way it did because Ohio State didn’t have its top options at quarterback and receiver, but the Cotton Bowl was a glimpse at what the roster will look like in 2024 if no changes are made.

Freshman quarterback Lincoln Kienholz completed 6 of 17 passes for 86 yards and no touchdowns, while Devin Brown completed 4 of 6 for 20 yards before getting hurt. The staff has ESPN 300 quarterback Air Noland coming in with the 2024 recruiting class, but it will be his first season on campus.

Noland very likely could end up being a star in Ryan Day’s offense, but it might not be realistic to expect him to break out in Year 1. The staff got a transfer commitment from Kansas State quarterback transfer Will Howard on Thursday. Adding Howard allows Noland to develop while giving Ohio State a capable quarterback who has already proven he can be efficient and successful at this level.

The staff has lost 12 players to the transfer portal and is yet to add any to the roster. The offense loses McCord, Harrison, Julian Fleming, and could lose receiver Emeka Egbuka and running back TreVeyon Henderson to the NFL.

That is a lot of production to replace in one offseason and without any portal additions. Howard is a big get for the staff, but adding in more up front along the offensive line would help get the team to where it needs to be in 2024. — Tom VanHaaren


Every bowl mascot should be edible

There was a lot of criticism of bowl season this year due to the dozens of high profile opt-outs, hundreds of players in the portal, and marquee matchups that didn’t deliver because only a shell of a team showed up to play. But one thing bowls still get right is the ridiculousness of it all — the pageantry, the humor, the fun and, of course, the giant toasters.

No bowl game outside the playoff generated more enthusiasm than the Pop-Tarts Bowl, not because of anything to do with the teams involved, but because of the sheer absurdity of seeing a giant anthropomorphic Pop-Tart frolicking in the background of every camera shot, all while waiting to be eaten by the winning team. Add that to the delight of the Dukes Mayo Bowl’s mayo pour, the creepiness of Cheez-It king lording over his bowl or the Tax Act Texas Bowl having both starting QBs file their 1040 EZ during halftime (OK, that didn’t happen — but it should!). If we’re losing the on-field gravitas of bowls, let’s lean in on all the off-field zaniness and capering. If GoBowling.com is sponsoring a bowl, the winning coach should get bowled into a champagne celebration. The Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl should let the winning team go swimming in a giant cereal bowl. The Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl ought to give all fans in attendance one opportunity per year to order a No. 2 meal on a Sunday. — David Hale


There aren’t too many bowls

To Hale’s point, the members of the “too many bowls” industrial complex seized on the Orange Bowl as an example of all that is Very Bad. And that was a very bad game. But starting next year, in a 12-team field, nearly the entire Top 25 will be playing in a meaningful postseason game. That leaves the smaller bowls that will still be meaningful to those teams, with history on the line.

Western Kentucky star quarterback Austin Reed opted out of the Famous Toastery Bowl and the Hilltoppers trailed 28-0 until freshman Caden Veltkamp threw for 383 yards and rallied them for the fourth-biggest bowl comeback of all time in a 38-35 OT win over Old Dominion. Players threw toast in the air in celebration.

Jacksonville State got a waiver to play in the New Orleans Bowl because it was the program’s first season in FBS, and then beat Louisiana in overtime for the Gamecocks’ first-ever FBS bowl win. Coach Rich Rodriguez gave his players an extra night to celebrate in New Orleans.

There were one-score games in the Quick Lane (Minnesota 30, Bowling Green 24), Camellia (Northern Illinois 21, Arkansas State 19) and Arizona (Wyoming 16, Toledo 15) Bowls, with Wyoming sending retiring coach Craig Bohl out a winner. Texas State won its first bowl game in history with a win over Rice in the First Responder Bowl and drank the stadium dry in the process, then stormed the field. At a bowl game.

It’s not just for the little guys, either. Kentucky and Clemson combined for 42 points in the fourth quarter of the Gator Bowl, including the Tigers scoring a game-winning touchdown with 17 seconds left. What else would you rather be doing on a Friday morning on Dec. 29?

The small bowls may not mean anything to you, but they do to the players and coaches who get one last chance to play together. And for fans: Who hates extra football every day of the week when you’d be talking to your in-laws instead? Who hates fun? Who hates edible mascots and a flood of memes afterward? Who hates trophies? Who hates making snow angels in toast? — Dave Wilson

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Western Kentucky comes back from down 28 to win the Famous Toastery Bowl

WKU completes an improbable comeback to overcome a 21-point fourth-quarter deficit and win the Famous Toastery Bowl in overtime.


There should be a playoff for the Group of 5

Let’s not talk problems. Let’s talk solutions. As the playoff expands and devalues the rest of the bowls to a certain extent, it’s baffling that we haven’t had a serious discussion about a playoff for teams from the Group of 5. In this era, there is a bigger gulf between Group of 5 schools and Power 5 — Power 4? — schools than ever, so we should stop pretending they should be considered the same division of college football. Based on what we saw in the Fiesta Bowl, Liberty would have lost to Oregon approximately 100 times out of 100. That’s not a team that would have belonged in a 12-team playoff. It makes no sense that teams in every tier of football now — NFL, Power 5, FCS, NCAA Division II, NCAA Division III, NAIA, various enrollment levels in high school, etc — can aspire to a playoff against their peers except FBS Group of 5 teams.

There are obviously financial implications in play here that might be tough to sort out, but from a competitive standpoint, this feels like a no-brainer. There can be a provision that allows a Group of 5 team to opt into the playoff with the bigger schools if it’s ranked high enough, but, again, let’s not get held up by small details.

In addition to Liberty, the three other Group of 5 champions that played a Power 5 team in their bowl game also lost: SMU lost to Boston College (3-5 in ACC); Troy lost to Duke (4-4 in ACC); Boise State lost to UCLA (4-5 in Pac-12). Miami (Ohio), which won the MAC, lost to Appalachian State. A playoff would be more meaningful for the players, has the potential to generate more revenue and, most importantly, would be the result of the application of common sense. — Kyle Bonagura


Miller Moss will be considered for USC’s starting QB job

Does Lincoln Riley now have Caleb Williams’ successor in-house with redshirt sophomore Miller Moss? Moss deserves a long, hard look after throwing for 372 passing yards and a Holiday Bowl-record six touchdown passes in the 42-28 victory over Louisville. With Malachi Nelson (No. 1 overall in the 2023 ESPN 300) in the transfer portal, a need to overhaul the defense and the program moving to the Big Ten, USC has plenty to do before opening the 2024 season against LSU in Las Vegas. One spectacular start in San Diego for the inexperienced Moss (914 passing yards and nine TD passes in eight career games over three seasons) could very well lead to the long-term answer USC needs at the game’s most important position. — Blake Baumgartner


Carson Beck will be a contender for the 2024 Heisman

The Heisman Trophy campaigns for the 2024 season are already being planned. There will be more than a few SEC quarterbacks in the conversation, including Alabama’s Jalen Milroe, Ole Miss’ Jaxson Dart, Texas’ Quinn Ewers (assuming he returns for next season), Missouri’s Brady Cook and even Tennessee’s Nico Iamaleava, who would give Vols’ fans a reason to pay attention to the “Heistman” again.

But the SEC player best positioned to win the Heisman next season is the same guy who should have received more consideration this season: Georgia quarterback Carson Beck.

Beck carved apart Florida State on 13-of-18 passing for 203 yards and two touchdowns in just one half after the Bulldogs built a 42-3 halftime lead in their 63-3 demolition of the Seminoles in the Orange Bowl.

This was Beck’s first season as the Dawgs’ starter, and he only got better and more effective as the year progressed. The rising fifth-year senior completed 72.4% of his passes for 3,941 yards, 24 touchdowns and just six interceptions. In Year 2, he will go from one of college football’s breakout stars to one of the nation’s biggest stars. He’s as good at reading defenses as he is at making pinpoint throws on third down and scrambling when he needs to.

By the way, the last Georgia player to win the Heisman Trophy was a guy by the name of Herschel Walker. — Chris Low


Notre Dame will return to the CFP

Without the need to go undefeated to make the 12-team playoff, Notre Dame will earn its chance to compete for a national title again with the help of Duke transfer quarterback Riley Leonard. With opt-outs that included Sam Hartman, Notre Dame’s depth was on display in the Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl, when it manhandled a depleted Oregon State team 40-8 even while starting backup quarterback Steve Angeli.

With Leonard and LSU offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock incoming, though, the offense will be in experienced hands — as long as the Irish can find some reliable receivers. Former Clemson receiver Beaux Collins and former FIU receiver Kris Mitchell both committed to Notre Dame after entering the transfer portal. Notre Dame lacrosse player Jordan Faison also had 115 receiving yards and a touchdown against Oregon State.

After leading the Irish to a 10-win season, coach Marcus Freeman enters his third year with a manageable schedule he can both win and impress the CFP selection committee with. The Irish open with a road trip against a Texas A&M team in transition and get Louisville and Florida State at home in 2024. — Heather Dinich


Arizona will compete for the Big 12 title

With a move to a new conference coming in 2024, Jedd Fisch’s team went into the Alamo Bowl against Oklahoma and capped off an impressive year with a statement victory. Against a program that’s been the crown jewel of the conference in recent years, the Wildcats dominated on defense — forcing six turnovers — and on offense, with freshman quarterback Noah Fifita leading his team to 38 points.

It was a fitting finish for Arizona given the way they surprised the Pac-12 this season and became the conference’s third-best team behind Washington and Oregon. Fisch took over the program in 2020 and proceeded to go 1-11 in his first season. In 2022, there was some improvement as the Wildcats jumped to 5-7, but the leap to a 10-3 record in 2023 was shocking.

Arizona became one of the most exciting teams to watch this season, putting the program back on the map at just the right time. Don’t get me wrong, there’s plenty that Arizona has to improve on — their running game was abysmal in the Alamo Bowl and the defense needs to make a leap of its own — but as Texas and Oklahoma depart for the SEC, the floor is open for an up-and-coming team to cement its place at the top of the new Big 12. — Paolo Uggetti


Penn State will again be good, not great

Penn State is used to going 0-2 against Ohio State and Michigan, but this season, Michigan didn’t even have suspended head coach Jim Harbaugh on the sideline when it beat the Nittany Lions on their home turf. PSU coach James Franklin is now 1-14 against Ohio State and Michigan teams ranked in the top 10.

After flirting briefly with staff stability, there were changes again at the coordinator position, with defensive coordinator Manny Diaz leaving to become head coach at Duke, and Franklin hiring Andy Kotelnicki from Kansas, which should be an upgrade. How much of rookie quarterback Drew Allar‘s struggles were a result of not having dependable receivers? How much did they have to do with his lack of accuracy? How much had to do with coaching? Probably a combination of it all.

Penn State has had enough trouble with Ohio State and Michigan, and now it has to worry about Washington, USC and UCLA. For most of Franklin’s decade leading the program, PSU has settled for being the league’s third-best team. With the Big Ten growing to 18 teams in 2024, even that could be a challenge. Penn State doesn’t only have to worry about beating the incoming Pac-12 powers, though. It should also be concerned about its season-opener at West Virginia — which beat North Carolina soundly in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl. — Dinich


The Hokies will have a resurgent season

What Virginia Tech did in a 41-20 victory over Tulane in the Military Bowl sent a clear message to those paying attention to both the rise and fall of this program: The Hokies will be ACC title contenders in 2024.

Once a shoo-in to play in ACC championship and BCS games under Frank Beamer, it is no secret Virginia Tech has fallen on hard times over the last decade. Though a 7-6 record is not quite to the standard Beamer set, the growth Virginia Tech showed in Year 2 under Brent Pry simply cannot be ignored. Nor can the optimism after the Hokies won their first bowl game since 2016.

Virginia Tech finally has a reliable quarterback, star-in-the-making Kyron Drones — who rushed for a career-high 176 yards, threw for 91 and scored three total touchdowns in miserable conditions in Annapolis. The Hokies finally have a talented back in Bhayshul Tuten, who rushed for 136 yards and two touchdowns in the win and an offensive line that can move people and set up big plays.

When Virginia Tech has been elite, it has typically had a strong dual-threat quarterback and powerful run game. That is what the Hokies have headed into 2024. Drones and Tuten will return. So will the entire offensive line, and their top four receivers. Defensively, top pass-rusher Antwaun Powell-Ryland (14.5 tackles for loss, 9.5 sacks) will also return, along with top corner Dorian Strong. Virginia Tech has also added veteran Duke defensive tackle Aeneas Peebles, who will give the Hokies a strong interior presence.

Virginia Tech has not played for an ACC championship since 2016. For a fan base eager to see the Hokies’ return to prominence, eight years is a long time to wait. But for the first time in a long time, there is positive energy surrounding the program, and the bowl game showed exactly why. — Andrea Adelson

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Shocks at No. 1 — and No. 2?! Winners, losers and takeaways from MLB draft Day 1

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Shocks at No. 1 -- and No. 2?! Winners, losers and takeaways from MLB draft Day 1

The first day of the 2025 MLB draft is complete! The Washington Nationals selected Eli Willits with the No. 1 pick, opting for the prep shortstop — who might be more likely to sign below slot — in a draft with no clear-cut top prospect. And there were plenty of other intriguing selections as the first three rounds unfolded Sunday night.

The Seattle Mariners had to have been thrilled to have Kiley McDaniel’s No. 1-ranked prospect, Kade Anderson, fall to them at No. 3, and Ethan Holliday was selected at No. 4 by his famous father’s former squad the Colorado Rockies.

We asked ESPN baseball insiders Alden Gonzalez, Jesse Rogers and David Schoenfield to break down their favorite and most head-scratching moves of the draft’s first night, as well as to predict which players will bring the most to their new teams in the long term.


A lot of us were thrown for a loop by the first two selections. What do you make of the Nationals taking Ethan Willits at No. 1 and the Angels picking Tyler Bremner at No. 2?

Gonzalez: I was stunned on both accounts. Though there was definitely some uncertainty around the Nationals’ approach, especially since the firing of GM Mike Rizzo, I didn’t see anybody, anywhere, projecting Willits to be their choice at No. 1 overall. But the Angels drafting Bremner was an even bigger risk. Kiley had him 18th in his latest ranking. Six pitchers were ranked ahead of him. But Bremner might be someone who can rise and impact their major league roster quickly, and the Angels are always looking for that.

Rogers: The first two picks really summed up the uncertainty of the entire draft. The Nationals’ faith in a 17-year-old will be tested over the coming years, but the pick will likely save them some money for later in this draft and give Willits time to grow. The same can be said of many of the top picks: They’re going to need time. There are far fewer sure things this year — though Bremner could be the exception. The Angles love to graduate their players quickly, and as a college arm, he could see the majors sooner rather than later. Like Willits, this could also be a cost-saving move for later spending.

Schoenfield: In a draft that not only lacked a sure-thing No. 1 overall pick but was viewed as weaker at the top than those of recent years, it’s perhaps not a huge surprise that the Nationals and Angels used their picks to strike likely underslot deals with Willits and Bremner, giving them money to spend later in the draft — which they can use on high school prospects who might have slipped, trying to buy them out from going to college. It’s a strategy teams have used with success over the years, so the drafts for the Nationals and Angels will have to be viewed in their totality and not just focused on these two players.


What was your favorite pick of the night — and which one had you scratching your head?

Gonzalez: The Rockies have done a lot of things wrong over these last few … uh, decades. But it was really cool to see them take Ethan Holliday at No. 4 after his father, Matt, starred in Colorado for so long. Outside of the top two picks, Ethan Conrad going 17th to the Cubs was my biggest surprise of the night. Kiley had him ranked 30th; others had him falling out of the first round entirely. There’s uncertainty coming off shoulder surgery. But Conrad, 21, put up a 1.238 OPS in 97 plate appearances before his season ended prematurely in March. And the dearth of college bats probably influenced a slight reach here.

Rogers: I’m loving Billy Carlson to the White Sox at No. 10. Though they lost 121 games last season, Chicago couldn’t pick higher than this spot per CBA rules — but the Sox might have gotten a top-five player. Carlson’s defense will play extremely well behind a sneaky good and young pitching staff that should keep the ball on the ground in the long term. Meanwhile, with the pick of the litter when it came to hitters — college outfielders and high school kids as well — the Pirates took a high school pitcher at No. 6. Seth Hernandez could be great, but they need hitting. A lot of it.

Schoenfield: The Mariners reportedly wanted LSU left-hander Kade Anderson all along, but they certainly couldn’t have been expecting to get him with the third pick. (Keep in mind that the Mariners were lucky in the first place to land the third pick in the lottery, so they added some good fortune on top of good luck.) They get the most polished college pitcher in the draft, one who should move quickly — and perhaps make it a little easier for Jerry Dipoto to dip into his farm system and upgrade the big league roster at the trade deadline. Even though I understand why the Angels did it, Bremner still seems a little questionable. With the second pick, you want to go for a home run, and the consensus is that Holliday or even Anderson is more likely to be a more impactful major leaguer. Bremner’s lack of a third plus pitch is an issue, and you have to wonder if the Angels are relying too much on his control — which, yes, should allow him to get to the majors — and ignoring the possible lack of upside.


Who is the one player you’d like to plant your flag on as the biggest steal of this draft?

Gonzalez: Seth Hernandez, who went sixth to the Pirates and should someday share a rotation with Paul Skenes and Jared Jones. High school pitchers are incredibly risky, especially when taken so early in the draft. But Hernandez is a great athlete who already throws hard, boasts a plus changeup and showed improvement with his breaking ball this spring. He’ll go the Hunter Greene route, from standout high school pitcher to major league ace.

Rogers: Jamie Arnold will look like a steal at No. 11, especially when he debuts in the majors well before many of the players taken around him. I’m not worried about the innings drop in 2025 — not when he was striking out 119 hitters and walking just 27. The A’s need to polish him up but will be pleased by how consistent he’ll be. You can’t go wrong with a college lefty from an ACC school — at least, the A’s didn’t.

Schoenfield: I’m going with Billy Carlson with the 10th pick — with the admitted caveat that the White Sox haven’t exactly been stellar at developing hitters. But Carlson looks like an elite defensive shortstop with plus power, and that alone can make him a valuable major leaguer. If the hit tool comes along, we’re looking at a potential star. OK, he’s Bobby Witt Jr. lite? That’s still an All-Star player.


What’s your biggest takeaway from Day 1 of this draft?

Gonzalez: The Nationals throwing a wrench into the proceedings by selecting Willits. It was a surprising choice, but in their minds an easy one. Interim general manager Mike DeBartolo called Willits the best hitter and best fielder available. And in a draft devoid of can’t-miss, high-impact talent, Willits is no doubt a solid pick — a polished hitter who should stick at shortstop and might consistently hit 20 homers and steal 20 bases at a premium position. He also might come under slot, allowing flexibility later in the draft. But his selection is what allowed Anderson to reach the Mariners at No. 3 and prompted the Rockies to draft Holliday at No. 4, among other dominoes. It set a really interesting tone.

Rogers: Things change quickly in baseball. Whereas college hitters are usually the safest bets early in the draft, this year high school position players dominated. (And they all play shortstop, at least for now.) Athleticism has returned to baseball, and draft rooms are acting accordingly.

Schoenfield: I’m agreeing with Jesse. The selection of that many prep shortstops stood out — and they all seem to hit left-handed and run well, and some of them have big power potential and a cannon for an arm. Look, the hit tool is the most important and the hardest to scout and project, so not all these kids are going to make it, but their potential is exciting and, to Jesse’s point, their wide range of tools is showing that baseball is still drawing top athletes to the sport.

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2025 MLB Home Run Derby: The field is set! Who is the slugger to beat?

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2025 MLB Home Run Derby: The field is set! Who is the slugger to beat?

The 2025 MLB All-Star Home Run Derby is fast approaching — and the field is set.

Braves hometown hero Ronald Acuna Jr. became the first player to commit to the event, which will be held at Truist Park in Atlanta on July 14 (8 p.m. ET on ESPN). He was followed by MLB home run leader Cal Raleigh of the Seattle Mariners, James Wood of the Washington Nationals, Byron Buxton of the Minnesota Twins, Oneil Cruz of the Pittsburgh Pirates, Junior Caminero of the Tampa Bay Rays, Brent Rooker of the Athletics and Jazz Chisholm Jr. of the New York Yankees.

On Friday, however, Acuna was replaced by teammate Matt Olson.

With all the entrants announced, let’s break down their chances at taking home this year’s Derby prize.

Full All-Star Game coverage: How to watch, schedule, rosters, more


2025 home runs: 17 | Longest: 434 feet

Why he could win: Olson is a late replacement for Acuna as the home team’s representative at this year’s Derby. Apart from being the Braves’ first baseman, however, Olson also was born in Atlanta and grew up a Braves fan, giving him some extra motivation. The left-handed slugger led the majors in home runs in 2023 — his 54 round-trippers that season also set a franchise record — and he remains among the best in the game when it comes to exit velo and hard-hit rate.

Why he might not: The home-field advantage can also be a detriment if a player gets too hyped up in the first round. See Julio Rodriguez in Seattle in 2023, when he had a monster first round, with 41 home runs, but then tired out in the second round.


2025 home runs: 36 | Longest: 440 feet

Why he could win: It’s the season of Cal! The Mariners’ catcher is having one of the greatest slugging first halves in MLB history, as he’s been crushing mistakes all season . His easy raw power might be tailor-made for the Derby — he ranks in the 87th percentile in average exit velocity and delivers the ball, on average, at the optimal home run launch angle of 23 degrees. His calm demeanor might also be perfect for the contest as he won’t get too amped up.

Why he might not: He’s a catcher — and one who has carried a heavy workload, playing in all but one game this season. This contest is as much about stamina as anything, and whether Raleigh can carry his power through three rounds would be a concern. No catcher has ever won the Derby, with only Ivan Rodriguez back in 2005 even reaching the finals.


2025 home runs: 24 | Longest: 451 feet

Why he could win: He’s big, he’s strong, he’s young, he’s awesome, he might or might not be able to leap tall buildings in a single bound. This is the perfect opportunity for Wood to show his talent on the national stage, and he wouldn’t be the first young player to star in the Derby. He ranks in the 97th percentile in average exit velocity and 99th percentile in hard-hit rate, so he can still muscle the ball out in BP even if he slightly mishits it. His long arms might be viewed as a detriment, but remember the similarly tall Aaron Judge won in 2017.

Why he might not: His natural swing isn’t a pure uppercut — he has a pretty low average launch angle of just 6.2 degrees — so we’ll see how that plays in a rapid-fire session. In real games, his power is primarily to the opposite field, but in a Home Run Derby you can get more cheapies pulling the ball down the line.


2025 home runs: 20 | Longest: 479 feet

Why he could win: Buxton’s raw power remains as impressive as nearly any hitter in the game. He crushed a 479-foot home run earlier this season and has four others of at least 425 feet. Indeed, his “no doubter” percentage — home runs that would be out of all 30 parks based on distance — is 75%, the highest in the majors among players with more than a dozen home runs. His bat speed ranks in the 89th percentile. In other words, two tools that could translate to a BP lightning show.

Why he might not: Buxton is 31 and the Home Run Derby feels a little more like a younger man’s competition. Teoscar Hernandez did win last year at age 31, but before that, the last winner older than 29 was David Ortiz in 2010, and that was under much different rules than are used now.


2025 home runs: 16 | Longest: 463 feet

Why he could win: If you drew up a short list of players everyone wants to see in the Home Run Derby, Cruz would be near the top. He has the hardest-hit ball of the 2025 season, and the hardest ever tracked by Statcast, a 432-foot missile of a home run with an exit velocity of 122.9 mph. He also crushed a 463-foot home run in Anaheim that soared way beyond the trees in center field. With his elite bat speed — 100th percentile — Cruz has the ability to awe the crowd with a potentially all-time performance.

Why he might not: Like all first-time contestants, can he stay within himself and not get too caught up in the moment? He has a long swing, which will result in some huge blasts, but might not be the most efficient for a contest like this one, where the more swings a hitter can get in before the clock expires, the better.


2025 home runs: 23 | Longest: 425 feet

Why he could win: Although Caminero was one of the most hyped prospects entering 2024, everyone kind of forgot about him heading into this season since he didn’t immediately rip apart the majors as a rookie. In his first full season, however, he has showed off his big-time raw power — giving him a chance to become just the third player to reach 40 home runs in his age-21 season. He has perhaps the quickest bat in the majors, ranking in the 100th percentile in bat speed, and his top exit velocity ranks in the top 15. That could translate to a barrage of home runs.

Why he might not: In game action, Caminero does hit the ball on the ground quite often — in fact, he’s on pace to break Jim Rice’s record for double plays grounded into in a season. If he gets out of rhythm, that could lead to a lot of low line drives during the Derby instead of fly balls that clear the fences.


2025 home runs: 19 | Longest: 440 feet

Why he could win: The Athletics slugger has been one of the top power hitters in the majors for three seasons now and is on his way to a third straight 30-homer season. Rooker has plus bat speed and raw power, but his biggest strength is an optimal average launch angle (19 degrees in 2024, 15 degrees this season) that translates to home runs in game action. That natural swing could be picture perfect for the Home Run Derby. He also wasn’t shy about saying he wanted to participate — and maybe that bodes well for his chances.

Why he might not: Rooker might not have quite the same raw power as some of the other competitors, as he has just one home run longer than 425 feet in 2025. But that’s a little nitpicky, as 11 of his home runs have still gone 400-plus feet. He competed in the college home run derby in Omaha while at Mississippi State in 2016 and finished fourth.


2025 home runs: 17 | Longest: 442 feet

Why he could win: Chisholm might not be the most obvious name to participate, given his career high of 24 home runs, but he has belted 17 already in 2025 in his first 61 games after missing some time with an injury. He ranks among the MLB leaders in a couple of home run-related categories, ranking in the 96th percentile in expected slugging percentage and 98th percentile in barrel rate. His raw power might not match that of the other participants, but he’s a dead-pull hitter who has increased his launch angle this season, which might translate well to the Derby, even if he won’t be the guy hitting the longest home runs.

Why he might not: Most of the guys who have won this have been big, powerful sluggers. Chisholm is listed at 5-foot-11, 184 pounds, and you have to go back to Miguel Tejada in 2004 to find the last player under 6 foot to win.

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Van Gisbergen takes Sonoma to extend win streak

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Van Gisbergen takes Sonoma to extend win streak

SONOMA, Calif. — Shane van Gisbergen extended his winning streak to two straight and three victories in the past five weeks with yet another dominating run on a road course.

The New Zealander once again showed he’s in a completely different class on road and street courses than his rivals as he led 97 of 110 laps Sunday to win from pole at Sonoma Raceway. All three of his wins this year have been from pole — which tied him with Jeff Gordon for a NASCAR record of three consecutive road course victories from the top starting spot.

Gordon did it between the 1998 and 1999 seasons.

Victory No. 4 for van Gisbergen — who stunned NASCAR in 2023 when he popped into the debut Chicago street course race from Australian V8 Supercars and won — seemed a given before teams even arrived at the picturesque course in California wine country. His rivals have lamented that “SVG” has a unique braking technique he mastered Down Under that none of them — all oval specialists — can ever learn.

That win in Chicago two years ago led van Gisbergen to move to the United States for a career change driving stock cars for Trackhouse Racing. He and Ross Chastain have pumped energy into the team over this summer stretch with Chastain kicking it off with a Memorial Day weekend victory at the Coca-Cola 600.

Van Gisbergen is the fastest driver to win four Cup Series races — in his 34th start — since Parnelli Jones in 1969.

“It means everything. That’s why I race cars. I had an amazing time in Australia, and then to come here and the last couple weeks, or years, actually, has been a dream come true,” said van Gisbergen. “I’ve really enjoyed my time in NASCAR. Thanks, everyone, for making me feel so welcome. I hope I’m here for a long time to come.”

The Sonoma win made it four victories for Trackhouse in eight weeks. Van Gisbergen was second from pole in Saturday’s Xfinity Series race.

Although he dominated again Sunday, van Gisbergen pitted from the lead with 27 laps remaining and then had to drive his way back to the front. He got it with a pass of Michael McDowell with 19 laps remaining, but two late cautions made van Gisbergen win restarts to close out the victory in his Chevrolet.

Chase Briscoe was second in a Toyota for Joe Gibbs Racing.

“I’ve never played against Michael Jordan, but I imagine this was very similar,” Briscoe said after not being able to pass van Gisbergen on the two late restarts — the last with five laps remaining. “That guy is unbelievable on road courses. He’s just so good. He’s really raised the bar on this entire series.”

Briscoe was followed by Chase Elliott in a Chevrolet for Hendrick Motorsports. McDowell in a Chevy for Spire Motorsports was fourth and Christopher Bell in a Toyota for Joe Gibbs Racing was fifth.

In-season challenge

The midseason tournament that pays $1 million to the winner is down to four drivers.

Alex Bowman finished 25th and eliminated Ty Dillon, who finished 26th. Tyler Reddick (11th) knocked out Ryan Preece (16th), John Hunter Nemechek knocked out teammate Erik Jones as they finished 21st and 22nd, and Ty Gibbs, with a seventh-place finish, eliminated Zane Smith.

Bowman, at eighth, is the highest-seeded driver still in the challenge, which debuted this year.

Crew fight

NASCAR officials had to separate the crews for Brad Keselowski and Gibbs when members from the two teams scrapped on pit road during the race.

Keselowski’s crew confronted Gibbs’ crew after Gibbs drove through their pit stall and narrowly missed hitting some of Keselowski’s crew members already in place waiting for him.

The confrontation appeared to be contained to pushing and shoving and NASCAR officials quickly stepped between them. Both crews were given an official warning for fighting but NASCAR said Gibbs did nothing wrong.

Clean race — for a while

It took 61 of the 110 laps for the first caution for an on-track incident — when Ryan Blaney was knocked off the course and into the dirt early in the third stage. The contact from Chris Buescher left Blaney stranded, and right before NASCAR could throw the yellow, Bubba Wallace and Denny Hamlin both spun.

It was technically the third caution of the race, but the first two were for natural stage breaks.

The race ended with six cautions — two in the final stretch.

Up next

The Cup Series races Sunday at Dover Motor Speedway in Delaware, where Hamlin won last year.

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