The Baseball Writers’ Association of America portion of the Hall of Fame election will be announced at 6 p.m. ET Tuesday, with one surefire candidate who will get in, several players who are going to be really close and a few others hoping to make progress to the 75% threshold required.
We have you covered for everything to know on ballot reveal day. Let’s break down a few items to look for in the voting results.
One important note: Current listed percentages are from the Hall of Fame tracker website, which monitors all publicly revealed ballots, through 7 a.m. ET. Keep in mind that vote percentages almost always decrease — sometimes significantly — once the private ballots and post-result public ballots are officially added to the tabulation.
As an example, last year Todd Helton received 78.6% of the pre-result public ballots but just 61.8% of the private vote, and he finished a few votes short overall at 74.5%. Billy Wagner received 72.3% of the pre-result public vote but just 52.9% of the private ballots for a total of 68%. So, just because a player is currently above 75% doesn’t mean he’s a lock to get in.
Will Adrian Beltre get the highest vote percentage ever for a third baseman?
Beltre will be a first-ballot Hall of Famer, and I’m happy to report that (for the most part) the exasperating “He’s not a first-ballot Hall of Famer” mindset barely exists anymore. Still, of the public ballots so far, two voters didn’t vote for Beltre. I can’t imagine having a ballot and not voting for Beltre, given his lifetime numbers: 3,166 hits, 477 home runs, 1,707 RBIs and five Gold Gloves.
Yet some still believe the Hall of Fame is only for the elite of the elite. As Bill James once wrote, “The Ted Williams/Bob Gibson/Honus Wagner standard for Hall of Fame selection has never existed anywhere except in the imaginations of people who don’t know anything about the subject.”
The highest percentages among third basemen:
1. George Brett, 98.2% (488/497)
2. Chipper Jones, 97.2% (410/422)
3. Mike Schmidt, 96.5% (444/460)
I’d certainly take peak Brett or Schmidt over Beltre (and maybe Chipper as well), but Beltre looks as if he might eclipse Brett’s percentage.
Will Joe Mauer also be a first-ballot Hall of Famer?
Mauer is polling at 83.5% — much higher than I would have expected given he spent just nine full seasons as a catcher and has meager career counting stats for a first-ballot selection (143 home runs, 923 RBIs, 2,123 hits). He would need to receive an estimated 67% of the remaining ballots to get in, which is an improvement from a few days ago when he needed 69%. The private voters generally vote for fewer candidates, and Mauer probably doesn’t fall into their “only the obvious guys” philosophy — even if his high peak value and top-10 all-time standing among catchers in WAR warrants strong consideration — but I now think he’s going to just squeeze past that 75% mark.
Will Helton get those few extra votes he needs?
After falling 11 votes short in 2023 on his fifth year on the ballot, Helton is currently polling at 82.0% — a small uptick from his pre-result total last year when, as mentioned, he was at 78.6%. If he declines the same 6.4% as last year, that leaves him at 75.4% — and elected to the Hall of Fame. That’s not much room to spare, but it looks as if he’ll squeeze in, a reward for an incredible level of peak performance from 1999 to 2004, when he averaged .344 with 37 home runs, 48 doubles and 121 RBIs per season.
Billy Wagner and Gary Sheffield are both nearing the end of their ballot eligibility — will either get in this year?
Wagner is on his ninth year on the ballot, and Sheffield is on his 10th and final ballot. Wagner finished at 68% last year and is currently polling at 78.0%. What’s interesting about him, however, is that his final vote total last year dropped only 4.2% from the pre-results total. The private ballots gave him only a little more than half their support, but the public ballots that were revealed only after the results were announced gave him nearly 70%. It looks as if it might come down to one or two votes either way for him.
At least Wagner would still have one more year on the ballot. This is it for Sheffield, who is at 75.0%, and that still means it’s almost certain he’s not going to get in. It’s not exactly clear why Sheffield has failed to gain election when his hitting numbers merit it. It could be his connection to Barry Bonds and the Bay Area Laboratory Co-Operative (BALCO), his vagabond career, or maybe the crowded ballot early on that delayed his momentum. Anyway, the private voters are unlikely to push him over the top to get into the Hall of Fame via the BBWAA vote — and when Sheffield eventually appears on one of the era committee ballots down the road, it will be interesting to see whether he’ll be grouped alongside Bonds, Roger Clemens and Mark McGwire.
How much will strong defensive metrics help Andruw Jones and Chase Utley?
I’m grouping these two together because both of their cases to a large extent depend on the fielding metrics used at Baseballl-Reference.com, where Jones is rated as the best center fielder of all time (which matches his reputation) and Utley is rated as one of the best second basemen of all time (which wasn’t his reputation while active). Jones is now on his seventh ballot and should get past 60% this year, and that’s a strong sign that he’ll get in over the next three ballots. Utley is polling at 40%, a decent starting spot for a first ballot. If Helton gets in, that could help Utley as well, as both had similar high-peak/low-volume careers.
How much will Carlos Beltran’s percentage increase?
Beltran is kind of in his own class as a candidate: He has a strong analytical case (70.1 career WAR), although he wasn’t necessarily a player who fit snugly into that vague and undefined “feels like a Hall of Famer” category while active. He was never going to be a first-ballot guy, but maybe somebody who makes it after four or five chances. Then came the Houston Astroscheating scandal. Would he be treated like the performance-enhancing drugs guys? Last year, his first on the ballot, he received 47.4%. He’s polling at 66.0%, about 13% higher than his early results last year, so it appears some voters simply gave him a one-year punishment. If he finishes at a significantly higher percentage than 47% overall, we can assume he’s back on track to get elected.
Are Manny Ramirez and Alex Rodriguez still on the ballot?
With the series tied 2-2 heading into Game 5, it’s now a best-of-three, making Saturday’s game all the more pivotal. Which team will move within one W of the greatest trophy in sports?
Here are notes on the matchup from ESPN Research, as well as betting intel from ESPN BET:
What a difference a game makes! Heading into Game 4, the Panthers were -260 favorites to win the Cup, with the Oilers at +215. Now, the two teams are both -110. Sam Bennett (+150) and Connor McDavid (+240) remain atop the Conn Smythe leaderboard — but Connor’s teammate Leon Draisaitl has joined him at +240 after he tallied the OT game winner (his second of the series).
In history, when a Stanley Cup Final has been tied 2-2, the winner of Game 5 has gone on to win 19 out of 26 times (.731 win percentage).
The Panthers have won their last three series that were tied 2-2: 2022 first round vs. the Washington Capitals, 2024 conference finals vs. the New York Rangers and 2025 second round vs. the Toronto Maple Leafs. The Oilers have won their last three series when they were trailing 2-1: 2024 second round vs. the Vancouver Canucks, 2024 conference finals vs. the Dallas Stars, 2025 first round vs. the Los Angeles Kings.
The Oilers became the seventh team to overcome a three-goal deficit to win a Stanley Cup Final game, and the first since the Carolina Hurricanes did it to them in Game 1 of the 2006 finals. They are only the second team to accomplish this feat on the road, joining the 1919 Montreal Canadiens at the Seattle Metropolitans.
The two teams have combined to score 32 goals thus far, which is the fourth most through the first four games of a Stanley Cup Final in NHL history.
The OT game winner Draisaitl scored in Game 4 was his fourth such goal this postseason, setting a single-year record. He now owns the record for a single regular season (six, set in 2024-25) and a single postseason.
After coming in to replace Stuart Skinner to begin the second period, Calvin Pickard ran his record this postseason to 7-0. He is the first goalie to win a game in relief since Andrei Vasilevskiy picked up the W after replacing Ben Bishop on 2015.
Draisaitl and McDavid make it five players in NHL history to score 30 points or more in consecutive postseasons (2024 and 2025), joining Nikita Kucherov (2020 and 2021), Mario Lemieux (1991 and 1992) and Wayne Gretzky (1983 through 1985, plus 1987 and 1988).
Florida’s Matthew Tkachuk became the ninth player in Stanley Cup Final history to score two power-play goals in a period and the first since Tampa Bay’s Brad Richards in Game 6 of the 2004 finals.
After three strong games to start the finals, Panthers goalie Sergei Bobrovsky faltered a bit in Game 4; his .857 save percentage was his lowest since Game 2 of the second-round series against the Maple Leafs (.800).
Brad Marchand scored four goals through the first three games of the series — including the game winner in double OT in Game 2 — but was held off of the scoresheet entirely in Game 4. Will the change of venue back to Edmonton result in his getting back on the board?
They were “waxed” and “spanked” in Game 3 of the Stanley Cup Final by the Florida Panthers, when they lost 6-1. They “put us on our heels early and we were lollygagging around” in the first period of Game 4, when Florida built a 3-0 lead and chased starting goaltender Stuart Skinner for the second straight game.
“It’s certainly not the time to lollygag around, right?” Draisaitl asked rhetorically.
Indeed, it is not, which might be why Draisaitl didn’t let the Oilers linger in overtime too long before ending Game 4 with his 11th goal of the playoffs — shoving the puck towards the Panthers’ net, having it deflect off defenseman Niko Mikkola and behind Sergei Bobrovsky at 11:18. Edmonton won 5-4, tied the series at 2-2 and completely flushed any lingering embarrassment over that Game 3 “spanking.”
In the process, Draisaitl continued to rewrite the NHL record books and loudly stated his case as the Stanley Cup playoffs’ most valuable player.
As of Friday morning, Draisaitl had the second-best odds at winning the Conn Smythe Trophy, according to ESPN BET (+225), trailing Florida center Sam Bennett (+140) and ahead of teammate Connor McDavid (+260), who won the award in a losing effort last season.
Oilers defenseman Jake Walman believes that it’s not just Draisaitl’s scoring but his all-around game that’s what makes him such a driving force for the Oilers.
“He’s a beast who can do it all for us,” Walman said. “There have been stretches in this postseason when he’s played great defensively too.”
Edmonton has a plus-4 in goal differential with Draisaitl on the ice in the postseason.
“It’s incredible. He’s a horse out there for us,” said forward Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, who has played with Draisaitl since the 29-year-old center was drafted third overall in 2014 by Edmonton. “We can always lean on him. He always finds a way to get those big [goals].”
The numbers make that statement undeniable. Draisaitl’s Game 4 winner was his fourth overtime goal of this postseason, setting a new single playoff year record in the NHL. Incredibly, Draisaitl also holds the single-season record for overtime goals in the regular season (six), which he also set this season.
Draisaitl is just the fifth player in NHL history to score multiple overtime goals in a Stanley Cup Final series. Maurice Richard holds the record with three OT goals.
“He’s one of the best players in the world for a reason. He not only says what he’s going to do, he backs it up with his play and his actions. That’s what makes him an amazing leader,” Oilers defenseman Darnell Nurse said. “We get into overtime. In those tense moments, he has an ability to relax and just make plays. He gets rewarded for working hard.”
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Leon Draisaitl scores OT winner for Oilers in Game 4
Leon Draisaitl notches the game-winning goal with this one-handed effort in a pulsating Game 4 that levels the series for Oilers.
Draisaitl has been perhaps the NHL’s most dominant player when factoring in the regular season with the postseason. The Oilers star finished a close second to Winnipeg Jets goalie Connor Hellebuyck in the voting for the Hart Trophy as league MVP, after a season in which Draisaitl led the NHL in goals (52) and was third overall in points (106). Draisaitl was the winner of the Hart in 2019-20, and this was the fourth season of 50 or more goals in Draisaitl’s 11-year NHL career.
Draisaitl is now second to Sam Bennett (14 goals) in postseason goals, after scoring his 11th in overtime of Game 4. He’s now tied with teammate Connor McDavid with 32 points in 20 playoff games to lead all scorers.
He has now reached 30 points in two straight postseasons, becoming only the fifth player in NHL history to accomplish that feat, along with McDavid (2024-2025), Nikita Kucherov (2020-2021), Mario Lemieux (1991-1992) and Wayne Gretzky (1987-1988 and 1983-1985). Draisaitl now has three 30-point playoff seasons in his career, tying him with McDavid and Hockey Hall of Famer Mark Messier for second all-time behind all-time leader Gretzky, who had six 30-point playoff campaigns.
It’s not just the amount of scoring for Draisaitl — it’s when he’s scoring. Consider that he has 16 points in the final two rounds of the playoffs, including a series-best seven points in the Stanley Cup Final. Draisaitl has points in 17 of 20 playoff games, and nine of his past 10 overall.
“He’s as clutch as it gets,” said goalie Calvin Pickard, also a Game 4 hero for Edmonton with 22 saves and a win in relief of Skinner. “He’s been playing great. Always scoring big goals at big times.”
In the case of his Game 4 performance, Draisaitl not only came through in the clutch but also did in a building that hasn’t been friendly to him. He hadn’t tallied a point in any of his previous five Stanley Cup Final games on the road against the Panthers. He didn’t even generate a shot on goal in Game 7 last season or in Game 3 this postseason. He also failed to generate a shot attempt in Game 3, marking just the second time in 93 career playoff games that this occurred for Draisaitl.
On Thursday, he made up for lost time with three points, assisting on goals by Nugent-Hopkins and Vasily Podkolzin before scoring one of his own in overtime.
Florida coach Paul Maurice believes his team has defended Draisaitl and McDavid “reasonably well” in the series at 5-on-5.
“I think they’re still going to generate some action,” the coach said. “I think the even-strength chances are pretty tight through four games.”
One of the differences for Edmonton this postseason, after losing to Florida in Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Final in 2024, is their confidence and comfort in playing in tight games and grinding series. If they get down, they don’t get flustered. If things aren’t clicking offensively, they’re patient.
“You just get comfortable in those situations knowing that you play one good game, you find a way to get a win on the road, and you go home and the series is tied. That’s really all it is,” Draisaitl said before Game 4. “Sometimes those games where you just get waxed a little bit, they’re almost easier to get out of, right? We didn’t play our best. They played their best. We weren’t even close to bringing our best. You park that, you move on.”
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Draisaitl comes up big with OT winner in Game 1
Leon Draisaitl nets the winning goal late in overtime to help the Oilers take Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Final.
For all the message-sending that the Panthers did in Game 3 — on the scoreboard, on the ice and with their mouths — the Oilers sent an important one about their resiliency with their Game 4 rally.
“It tells you that our group never quits. We believe that no matter how bad it is, if we get over that hump of adversity, we’re going to keep pushing, we’re going to keep coming, and eventually it’ll break,” Draisaitl said. “You don’t want to be in these situations too many times. But when they happen, I think we’re great at it.”
It helps to have someone like Leon Draisaitl scoring when it matters most.
“I don’t know what could convey what he means to our team,” Edmonton coach Kris Knoblauch said. “The leadership, the play. He has just elevated his game in the toughest moments.”
Cincinnati Reds left-hander Wade Miley said Friday that he has not been accused of any wrongdoing, one day after reports stated a deposition from a lawsuit alleged he supplied Tyler Skaggs with drugs when both players were with the Arizona Diamondbacks.
The deposition is part of a motion for summary judgment filed by the Los Angeles Angels, requesting a lawsuit from the Skaggs family be dismissed.
The deposition from Ryan Hamill, Skaggs’ agent, contains testimony that he was concerned in 2013 about Skaggs’ drug use. Hamill said he and Skaggs’ family confronted Skaggs about his drug use. Skaggs was then in his second season as a teammate of Miley with the Diamondbacks.
“He came clean,” Hamill testified. “He said he had been using — I believe it was Percocets — and he said he got them through Wade Miley.”
Skaggs died on July 1, 2019, at age 27 in a Dallas-area hotel. The autopsy found fentanyl, oxycodone and alcohol in his system.
Miley briefly addressed the issue before Friday’s road game against the Detroit Tigers.
“I hate what happened to Tyler, it sucks. My thoughts are with his family and his friends,” Miley said. “But I’m not going to sit here and talk about things that someone might have said about me or whatnot. I was never a witness for any of this. I was never accused of any wrongdoing.”
Former Angels communications director Eric Kay is serving a 22-year prison sentence in Texas after being found guilty on two charges of providing drugs related on Skaggs’ overdose.
The Athletic reported that the criminal proceedings against Kay included a recorded phone conversation in which Kay told his mother that Miley was a drug source to Skaggs.
Asked if Major League Baseball has contacted him regarding the allegations, Miley said, “I’d rather just focus on the Cincinnati Reds right now and baseball and what I have to do moving forward. I’ve got to get ready for a game on Sunday.”
Miley was mentioned in Kay’s criminal case, but he was never charged with a crime.
Skaggs was traded to the Angels after the 2013 season. He went 28-38 with a 4.41 ERA in 96 career starts.
Miley, 38, is with his eighth big league team and attempting to revive his career after Tommy John surgery in 2024.
Miley has a career 109-99 mark with a 4.09 ERA in 319 games (311 starts) since making his major league debut in 2011. This is his second go-round with the Reds. He was with the team in the 2020 and 2021 seasons, going 12-10 with a 3.55 ERA in 177⅓ innings over 34 starts (32 innings).
The Skaggs family is suing the Angels, contending that high-level team officials, as well as other employees, knew Kay was a drug user and should have known he was Skaggs’ source.