Who’s getting into the Hall of Fame on Tuesday? Everything you need to know on ballot reveal day
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David Schoenfield, ESPN Senior Writer
The Baseball Writers’ Association of America portion of the Hall of Fame election will be announced at 6 p.m. ET Tuesday, with one surefire candidate who will get in, several players who are going to be really close and a few others hoping to make progress to the 75% threshold required.
We have you covered for everything to know on ballot reveal day. Let’s break down a few items to look for in the voting results.
One important note: Current listed percentages are from the Hall of Fame tracker website, which monitors all publicly revealed ballots, through 7 a.m. ET. Keep in mind that vote percentages almost always decrease — sometimes significantly — once the private ballots and post-result public ballots are officially added to the tabulation.
As an example, last year Todd Helton received 78.6% of the pre-result public ballots but just 61.8% of the private vote, and he finished a few votes short overall at 74.5%. Billy Wagner received 72.3% of the pre-result public vote but just 52.9% of the private ballots for a total of 68%. So, just because a player is currently above 75% doesn’t mean he’s a lock to get in.
Will Adrian Beltre get the highest vote percentage ever for a third baseman?
Beltre will be a first-ballot Hall of Famer, and I’m happy to report that (for the most part) the exasperating “He’s not a first-ballot Hall of Famer” mindset barely exists anymore. Still, of the public ballots so far, two voters didn’t vote for Beltre. I can’t imagine having a ballot and not voting for Beltre, given his lifetime numbers: 3,166 hits, 477 home runs, 1,707 RBIs and five Gold Gloves.
Yet some still believe the Hall of Fame is only for the elite of the elite. As Bill James once wrote, “The Ted Williams/Bob Gibson/Honus Wagner standard for Hall of Fame selection has never existed anywhere except in the imaginations of people who don’t know anything about the subject.”
The highest percentages among third basemen:
1. George Brett, 98.2% (488/497)
2. Chipper Jones, 97.2% (410/422)
3. Mike Schmidt, 96.5% (444/460)
I’d certainly take peak Brett or Schmidt over Beltre (and maybe Chipper as well), but Beltre looks as if he might eclipse Brett’s percentage.
Will Joe Mauer also be a first-ballot Hall of Famer?
Mauer is polling at 83.5% — much higher than I would have expected given he spent just nine full seasons as a catcher and has meager career counting stats for a first-ballot selection (143 home runs, 923 RBIs, 2,123 hits). He would need to receive an estimated 67% of the remaining ballots to get in, which is an improvement from a few days ago when he needed 69%. The private voters generally vote for fewer candidates, and Mauer probably doesn’t fall into their “only the obvious guys” philosophy — even if his high peak value and top-10 all-time standing among catchers in WAR warrants strong consideration — but I now think he’s going to just squeeze past that 75% mark.
Will Helton get those few extra votes he needs?
After falling 11 votes short in 2023 on his fifth year on the ballot, Helton is currently polling at 82.0% — a small uptick from his pre-result total last year when, as mentioned, he was at 78.6%. If he declines the same 6.4% as last year, that leaves him at 75.4% — and elected to the Hall of Fame. That’s not much room to spare, but it looks as if he’ll squeeze in, a reward for an incredible level of peak performance from 1999 to 2004, when he averaged .344 with 37 home runs, 48 doubles and 121 RBIs per season.
Billy Wagner and Gary Sheffield are both nearing the end of their ballot eligibility — will either get in this year?
Wagner is on his ninth year on the ballot, and Sheffield is on his 10th and final ballot. Wagner finished at 68% last year and is currently polling at 78.0%. What’s interesting about him, however, is that his final vote total last year dropped only 4.2% from the pre-results total. The private ballots gave him only a little more than half their support, but the public ballots that were revealed only after the results were announced gave him nearly 70%. It looks as if it might come down to one or two votes either way for him.
At least Wagner would still have one more year on the ballot. This is it for Sheffield, who is at 75.0%, and that still means it’s almost certain he’s not going to get in. It’s not exactly clear why Sheffield has failed to gain election when his hitting numbers merit it. It could be his connection to Barry Bonds and the Bay Area Laboratory Co-Operative (BALCO), his vagabond career, or maybe the crowded ballot early on that delayed his momentum. Anyway, the private voters are unlikely to push him over the top to get into the Hall of Fame via the BBWAA vote — and when Sheffield eventually appears on one of the era committee ballots down the road, it will be interesting to see whether he’ll be grouped alongside Bonds, Roger Clemens and Mark McGwire.
How much will strong defensive metrics help Andruw Jones and Chase Utley?
I’m grouping these two together because both of their cases to a large extent depend on the fielding metrics used at Baseballl-Reference.com, where Jones is rated as the best center fielder of all time (which matches his reputation) and Utley is rated as one of the best second basemen of all time (which wasn’t his reputation while active). Jones is now on his seventh ballot and should get past 60% this year, and that’s a strong sign that he’ll get in over the next three ballots. Utley is polling at 40%, a decent starting spot for a first ballot. If Helton gets in, that could help Utley as well, as both had similar high-peak/low-volume careers.
How much will Carlos Beltran’s percentage increase?
Beltran is kind of in his own class as a candidate: He has a strong analytical case (70.1 career WAR), although he wasn’t necessarily a player who fit snugly into that vague and undefined “feels like a Hall of Famer” category while active. He was never going to be a first-ballot guy, but maybe somebody who makes it after four or five chances. Then came the Houston Astros cheating scandal. Would he be treated like the performance-enhancing drugs guys? Last year, his first on the ballot, he received 47.4%. He’s polling at 66.0%, about 13% higher than his early results last year, so it appears some voters simply gave him a one-year punishment. If he finishes at a significantly higher percentage than 47% overall, we can assume he’s back on track to get elected.
Are Manny Ramirez and Alex Rodriguez still on the ballot?
Yes, they are.
Are they even close to getting in?
No, they are not.
It seems such a short time ago that all 16 teams began the 2025 Stanley Cup playoffs with a clean slate. On Tuesday night, two teams could have their postseason runs ended.
Can both teams stave off elimination to get another home game out of the 2025 postseason?
Meanwhile in the Western Conference, both series involving Pacific Division teams are tied 2-2 heading back to the higher seed’s domain. Which teams will take pivotal Games 5 in Vegas Golden Knights–Minnesota Wild and Los Angeles Kings–Edmonton Oilers?
Read on for game previews with statistical insights from ESPN Research, recaps of what went down in Monday’s games, and the Three Stars of Monday Night from Arda Öcal.
Matchup notes
Ottawa Senators at Toronto Maple Leafs
Game 5 (TOR leads 3-1) | 7 p.m. ET | ESPN
Games 2-4 marked the 11th time in the past 20 years that teams have gone to overtime three straight times in a playoff series.
Jake Sanderson‘s game-winning overtime goal was the first of his career, and he became the ninth defenseman age 22 or younger with an OT goal in the playoffs (and the first for the Senators).
Veteran David Perron scored his first playoff goal with the Senators, the fourth team with which he has scored a postseason goal (Blues, Golden Knights, Ducks).
Matthew Knies scored his sixth career playoff goal, which is tied for the fourth most by a Maple Leafs player age 22 or younger since 1976-77, behind Auston Matthews (12), Wendel Clark (11) and Russ Courtnall (8).
Toronto defensemen have scored five goals this postseason, the most by any team, a surprising outcome given that the Leafs had the fewest goals by defensemen in the regular season (21).
New Jersey Devils at Carolina Hurricanes
Game 5 (CAR leads 3-1) | 7:30 p.m. ET | TBS
The Devils have outscored the Hurricanes at 5-on-5 in the series (7-5), but trail on their own power plays (0-1), the Canes’ power plays (0-4) and when the net is empty (0-2).
Hurricanes goaltender Frederik Andersen was knocked out of Game 4 following a collision with Devils forward Timo Meier. Meier has not scored on Andersen during this series, but scored on his first shot on goal against backup goalie Pyotr Kochetkov.
Andersen’s status is up in the air for Game 5, but he is the current leader among playoff goaltenders in goals-against average (1.59) this postseason, and is second among qualified goalies in save percentage (.936).
Andrei Svechnikov scored his second career playoff hat trick in Game 4. He has two for his career and is the only player in Hurricanes/Whalers franchise history to score a playoff hat trick.
Minnesota Wild at Vegas Golden Knights
Game 5 (series tied 2-2) | 9:30 p.m. ET | ESPN
Game 4 broke one streak and continued another. Ivan Barbashev‘s OT winner snapped a three-game losing streak for Vegas in playoff OT games, while the loss for Minnesota makes it five straight defeats in home playoff games that go to the extra session.
Wild goalie Filip Gustavsson made 42 saves in the loss, his second career playoff game with 40 or more. He is the only goaltender in franchise history with multiple 40-save games in the playoffs.
Kirill Kaprizov registered an assist in the Game 4 loss, giving him eight points in four games this postseason, one behind the leaders.
Vegas forward Tomas Hertl is on a heater. His goal in Game 4 is his third this postseason, and he has eight goals in his past nine games going back to March 22.
The Wild have been mostly effective at keeping Jack Eichel off the score sheet. He had one assist in Game 4, his first point of the series after a team-leading 94 points in the regular season.
Edmonton Oilers at Los Angeles Kings
Game 5 (series tied 2-2) | 10 p.m. ET | TBS
With his two-goal outing in Game 4, Evan Bouchard became the fourth defenseman in Stanley Cup playoff history to have back-to-back multigoal games, joining Rob Blake (2002), Al Iafrate (1993) and Denis Potvin (1981).
Leon Draisaitl — who scored the OT game winner in Game 4 — now has eight four-point games in his playoff career. That’s the fourth most in Oilers history, behind Wayne Gretzky (20), Mark Messier (10) and Jari Kurri (10).
Tied with Draisaitl for the playoff scoring lead is Kings winger Adrian Kempe, who is also tied for the goals lead with four. Kempe had 19 total points in 22 previous playoff games, all with the Kings.
Kings goaltender Darcy Kuemper has been busy, facing 134 shots, which is the second most among postseason goaltenders (Gustavsson is first with 136). Kuemper’s current .881 save percentage is the second worst of his playoff career, narrowly ahead of the .879 he generated while backstopping the Wild for two games in the 2013 playoffs.
Arda’s three stars from Monday night
Johnston scored his first goal of the 2025 postseason nine seconds in, which is tied for the fifth fastest goal to start a game in Stanley Cup playoff history. He had himself a night, with two goals and an assist in the Stars’ win.
Rantanen scored his first postseason goal with the Stars against his old team. Rantanen became the seventh different player in NHL history to score a playoff goal against a team with which he previously tallied 100-plus postseason points. The others: Jaromir Jagr (2012 and 2008 vs. Pittsburgh Penguins), Brett Hull (2002, 2001, and 1999 vs. St. Louis Blues), Wayne Gretzky (1992, 1990, 1989 vs. Edmonton Oilers), Jari Kurri (1992 vs. Oilers), Paul Coffey (1992 vs. Oilers) and Bernie Geoffrion (1967 vs. Montreal Canadiens).
His postgame quotes keep getting better and better, to the point where he deserves a star for saying, “I’m sick of talking about hits” — then asking the media for their thoughts. Love it.
Monday’s scores
Florida Panthers 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 2
FLA leads 3-1 | Game 5 Wednesday
After an exciting, but scoreless, first period, the game heated up even more in the second. Anton Lundell opened the scoring for the Panthers, and Aaron Ekblad delivered a vicious hit to Tampa Bay’s Brandon Hagel; the call was not penalized on the ice, and Hagel would have to leave the game. Thereafter, the Lightning scored two goals within 11 seconds from Mitchell Chaffee and Erik Cernak to take the lead well into the third period. But then in another span of 11 seconds, the Panthers pulled off the same feat, with goals by Ekblad and Seth Jones, sending the building into a frenzy. Carter Verhaeghe added an empty-netter for insurance. Full recap.
1:21
Panthers match Lightning with 2 goals in 11 seconds to take lead
Aaron Ekblad and Seth Jones score within 11 seconds of each other as the Panthers grab a late lead in the third period.
Dallas Stars 6, Colorado Avalanche 2
DAL leads 3-2 | Game 6 Thursday
As wild as the opening game was Monday night, this one looked to be going down the same road early. Dallas’ Wyatt Johnston scored nine seconds into the game, which is the fastest goal ever to start a playoff game in Stars franchise history. Fellow young Star Thomas Harley joined him on the scoresheet with 45 seconds left in the first. From there on, Dallas kept Colorado at arm’s length, with a second-period goal from Mikko Rantanen, another from Johnston and one from Mason Marchment, followed by an empty-netter from Roope Hintz to put an exclamation point on the proceedings. Artturi Lehkonen and Nathan MacKinnon scored in the second period, but that was not nearly enough on this night. Full recap.
0:34
Stars score in first 9 seconds of the game
Wyatt Johnston wastes no time as he finds the net within nine seconds of play for a Stars goal against the Avalanche.
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Greg Wyshynski
Florida Panthers defenseman Aaron Ekblad will have a hearing Tuesday with the NHL Department of Player Safety for elbowing Tampa Bay Lightning forward Brandon Hagel in the head in Game 4 of their series Monday night.
Hagel won’t play in Wednesday’s Game 5.
“He’s not playing tomorrow. And you know why,” said Lightning coach Jon Cooper on Tuesday.
Ekblad’s hearing will be held remotely.
With less than nine minutes left in the second period of Florida’s 4-2 victory, Hagel played the puck out of the Tampa Bay zone near the boards. Ekblad skated in on him and delivered a hit with his right forearm that made contact with Hagel’s head, shoving Hagel down in the process. The back of Hagel’s head bounced off the ice. He was pulled from the game because of concussion concerns and didn’t return to the bench.
Ekblad wasn’t penalized for the hit and remained in the game. He would play a critical role in the Panthers’ late-game rally to take a 3-1 series lead, tying the game with 3:47 left in regulation before Florida defenseman Seth Jones scored the winner 11 seconds later.
Hagel returned to the Lightning lineup in Game 4 after serving a one-game suspension for interference on Florida captain Aleksander Barkov in Game 2. The NHL ruled that Barkov wasn’t eligible to be hit and that Hagel made head contact with him, which forced Barkov out of the game. Barkov returned to the Florida lineup for Game 3, which the Lightning won in Hagel’s absence.
“It’s getting tiresome answering questions about a hit every single game,” Lightning coach Jon Cooper said after the game before asking media members whether they had anything to say about Ekblad’s check, with no takers. “All right, let’s move on,” he said.
Ekblad missed the first two games of the playoffs after he was suspended 20 games without pay in March for violating the NHL and NHL Players’ Association’s policy on performance-enhancing drugs.
The Department of Player Safety did make a ruling on Florida defenseman Niko Mikkola, who received a five-minute major penalty and a game misconduct for boarding Tampa Bay’s Zemgus Girgensons in Game 4. Mikkola was fined $5,000, the maximum allowable under the NHL CBA, but escaped suspension.
Cooper said the physicality of “The Battle of Florida” shouldn’t come as a surprise
“Players are missing games because of it, whether it’s physically or by the league. So it’s going to be talked about. But if anybody’s followed Tampa and Florida over the last five or six years, this is kind of how these series are. This one is a little different because of the major things that have happened, but these are hard-fought series,” he said.
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