Adam Boulton: Are we in for one of the ‘dirtiest’ election campaigns ever?

Published

3 months ago

January 28, 2024

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There was general agreement at the Institute for Government’s Annual conference last week that it would be a good thing for Britain if this year’s election campaign is not “dirty”.

This highfalutin notion was shot down in seconds with equally universal assumption by the assembled politicians and policy wonks that “that is not going to happen”.

A clean campaign would concentrate on policies and competence.

A dirty campaign is built around slurs, distortions and untruths, with those competing for votes slinging mud at each other.

A lot of factors, headed by booming social media, are coming together to suggest that this year we may see one of the dirtiest election campaigns ever.

The IFG delegates had to wait less than a day for their forebodings to come true. There might have been a lot to talk about at Prime Minister’s Questions.

The Rwanda (Asylum and Immigration) bill struggling through parliament. The world order threatened by ongoing conflicts in Ukraine, Gaza, Israel and the Red Sea.

Record NHS waiting lists are the public’s number one concern. The chancellor is contemplating two rounds of tax cuts.

But no, the leader of the opposition chose to exchange personal insults, much of it based on dubious content circulating on smartphones.

Fair’s fair, Sir Keir Starmer started it this time, but Rishi Sunak had a well-stocked pile to fling back.

Starmer opened up referring to a couple of brief unofficial clips posted online. One showing the prime minister “collapsing in laughter when he was asked by a member of the public about the NHS waiting lists”.

The other “accidentally record[ing] a candid video for Nigel Farage“.

Sunak, who seldom passes up a chance to brand Starmer as a lefty London lawyer, shot back that he is “the man who takes the knee, who wanted to abolish the monarchy, and who still does not know what a woman is”.

Previously Starmer “chose to represent a now-proscribed terrorist group” Hizb ut-Tahrir, and “served” Jeremy Corbyn.

Both men knew that the insults they were sticking on each other were essentially unjustified distortions of the other, but that was what they chose to put on the national agenda at the most scrutinized moment of the political week.

Starmer has explicitly changed his party and his previous positions.

Under scrutiny, he has clarified and explained each of the specific acts detailed. It is a core principle of British justice that advocates are not surrogates for their clients.

Sunak was not laughing at the people he was talking to and spoke to them properly after the end of the clip.

The alleged greeting to Farage was repurposing an online meme which allows any name, in this case “Nigel”, to be put into the prime minister’s mouth.

Neither Sunak nor Starmer are classic alpha males.

Sunak comes across as a whiny or petulant geek, Starmer seems hesitant, overcautious and inclined to blame others.

Perhaps this is why they feel the need to overcompensate by acting rough and tough. Sir Ed Davey, the Liberal Democrat leader, also has his moments of fabricated machismo.

The leaders set the tone and their petulance has been picked up in the campaigning efforts of their underlings and supporters.

Prime minister Boris Johnson took up an online distortion that Starmer had failed, when he was director of public prosecutions, to take action against Jimmy Savile.

This prompted the senior Downing Street aide Munira Mirza to resign protesting that this was “not the normal cut and thrust of politics”.

It soon would be. Labour cited Johnson’s attack as justification for their later personalised digital poster attacks on Rishi Sunak including the smear that he “doesn’t think adults convicted of sexually abusing children should go to prison”.

Since then Keir Starmer has gone out of his way not to back down or apologise; following the code of the playground he promises to punch back hard against any attacks.

At the start of election year he rejected an invitation from Beth Rigby to take up Michelle Obama’s famous recommendation: “When they go low, we go high”.

Instead, he told Sky News’ political editor: “If they want to go with fire, we will meet their fire with fire”.

Donald Trump crafts insults – Lyin’ Ted, Sleepy Joe, Ron DeSanctimonious – with cruel genius and gets away with fabulations.

There is only one Trump; honest political strivers should not try to copy him.

Opinion polls after personalised attacks usually show that support for both sides goes down, though more for the target than the attacker.

This should give all the party leaders something to think about, especially since public respect for politicians is at a record low and a low or differential turnout could be a major factor.

Starmer needs to mobilise enthusiasm for his leadership, not dent it. Sunak’s standing is already low and doesn’t want to drop further.

This government raised spending limits for the election campaign to £35m. Much of it will go on direct messaging to voters – which is harder to police than election broadcasts and billboards.

During the 2019 campaign, the Conservatives spent over a million on Facebook, much of it on messages disparaging Jeremy Corbyn.

Both Labour and Conservatives are already spending over a million a month on Facebook advertising.

Then there is what partisan supporters choose to put up on social media independently.

Labour has already advised its supporters to use humour.

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Even without explicitly taking sides humourists such as Coldwar Steve and Trumpton, liked and retweeted, can make some political weather, often by lowering the tone.

Political propagandising is much more equal opportunity than it used to be. Anyone can post.

On the other hand, the newspapers and other mainstream media no longer have a near monopoly.

In 1997 when The Sun ran its famous “Nightmare on Kinnock Street” and “Will the Last Person to Leave Britain Please Turn Off the Lights” attacks on Labour, the paper’s circulation was 3.9 million.

The last official figures released were 1.2 million in 2020.

Poster launches used to be major events in political campaigning, but who would bother with them today?

There are some worthwhile lessons to be learned from the classics.

The Saatchi brothers are celebrated for their attacking of billboards: Labour isn’t working, Labour’s tax bombshell and Labour’s Policy on Arms (showing a combat soldier surrendering hands up).

Each of these were masterpieces of wit and effort compared to the Conservatives’ adoption of the BBC newsreader caught giving the finger for “Labour when you ask for their plans to tackle immigration”.

The Saatchis’ best work riffed with precision on policy rather than personal insults.

When the Conservatives tried that with their “New Labour, New Danger” demon eyes poster it misfired; it was difficult to convincingly portray Blair as a devil when other Conservative sources were attacking him as an inexperienced Bambi.

Labour boobed depicting Cameron as a cute bicycling chameleon.

The most effective attacks at PMQs cut directly to the political issues facing the voters, rather than scuffling around in their past record for something compromising.

Mrs Thatcher struck directly and seemingly spontaneously at Michael Foot: “Afraid of an election is he? Afraid? Frightened? Frit?”.

“Weak, weak, weak,” Tony Blair gutted John Major. “You were the future once.”

Sunak, Starmer and their teams of advisors have yet to produce anything as authentic.

Something which would crystallise the political moment.

Instead, they and we can look forward to a year in the dirt as they scrabble around trying to find it.

UK

Rishi Sunak does not rule out July general election – but insists ‘there’ll be a clear choice’ when it comes

Published

8 hours ago

April 28, 2024

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Rishi Sunak does not rule out July general election - but insists 'there'll be a clear choice' when it comes

Rishi Sunak has failed to rule out holding a general election in July, as speculation remains rife over the timing of the national vote.

The prime minister has repeatedly said his “working assumption” is the election would take place in the second half of this year – with the law stating January 2025 is the latest he could call it.

But while many commentators have predicted an autumn vote, Sky News’ Trevor Phillips put to Mr Sunak that it could mean as early as July.

Analysis: Sunak needs to learn voters aren’t always governed by the logic of the computer

“Well, look, when it comes to a general election, I’ve been very clear about that multiple times,” the prime minister said.

“And again, I’m not going to say anything more than I’ve already said, I’ve been very clear about that.”

In his interview – which will air in full on Sunday at 8.30am – Trevor Phillips pushed Mr Sunak five times over whether he would rule out a July general election, but the Conservative leader refused to confirm or deny if it could take place then.

“You’re going to try and draw whatever conclusion you want from what I say,” he said. “I’m going to always try and say the same thing. You should just listen to what I said, [the] same thing I’ve said all year.

“But the point is… there’s a choice when it comes to the general election. And look, over the past week or so… the country can have a very clear sense of what that difference is going to look like.”

Outlining his recent commitments to overhauling the welfare system, cutting taxes and increasing defence spending, as well as finally getting his Rwanda bill through parliament in an effort to tackle small boat crossings, Mr Sunak said: “That is the substance of what this government is about and what it’s going to do in the future.

“And when the election comes, there’ll be a clear choice, because the Labour Party has tried to frustrate our Rwanda bill, because they don’t believe in stopping the boats, their economic plan will put people’s taxes up.

“They haven’t said that they will invest more in our defence and they certainly don’t agree with reforming our welfare system to support people into work.”

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Labour has said it wants to match the hike in defence spending when the financial circumstances allow, and has promised to scrap the Rwanda bill if it gets into power.

This week, its pre-election focus has been on railways, promising to renationalise train operators and “sweep away” the current “broken” model if the party wins the next election.

Watch Rishi Sunak’s full interview on Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips at 8.30am

UK

‘The only cure is a Labour government’: Tory MP and doctor Dan Poulter defects over NHS ‘chaos’

Published

8 hours ago

April 28, 2024

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'The only cure is a Labour government': Tory MP and doctor Dan Poulter defects over NHS 'chaos'

Conservative MP and former health minister Dan Poulter has defected to Labour in frustration at the worsening NHS crisis.

The MP for Suffolk Central and Ipswich North, with a majority of 23,391 at the last election, has indicated he is not planning to stand at the next general election.

The defection was revealed in an article on The Observer website, in which he said working as a mental health doctor in a busy hospital A&E over the past year had shown him how desperate the NHS situation had become.

“Working on the frontline of a health service under great strain left me at times, as an MP, struggling to look my NHS colleagues, my patients and my constituents in the eye,” he said.

He recalled seriously ill patients suffering long waits for treatment often hundreds of miles from their homes, adding that the “chaos of today’s fragmented patchwork of community addiction services” had put more pressure on already-stretched A&Es.

“The mental toll of a service stretched close to breaking point is not confined to patients and their families. It also weighs heavily on my NHS colleagues who are unable to deliver the right care in a system that simply no longer works for our patients.”

He said he had resigned from the Conservative Party to focus on his work as a doctor and to support Keir Starmer.

“I can well remember when I first qualified as a doctor and began working in the NHS in 2006. At the time, patient care had been radically improved and transformed by Tony Blair and Gordon Brown’s Labour governments, following many years of Conservative neglect and under-investment.

“…I have come to the conclusion that, once again, the only cure is a Labour government.”

Dr Poulter criticised the Tories for “putting the politics of public sector pay ahead of ending strikes with healthcare workers”, adding: “Political ideology has been put before pragmatism and meeting the needs of patients, who are the real losers from the strikes”.

He also told The Observer the Conservatives had become “a nationalist party of the right” in the last eight years.

“It is not to say all [Tory] MPs are like that,” he said.

“There are good MPs, but it feels that the party is ever moving rightwards, ever presenting a more nationalist position.”

The Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer celebrated the defection on social media, tweeting: “It’s time to end the Conservative chaos, turn the page, and get Britain’s future back. I’m really pleased that Dan has decided to join us on this journey.”

Sky’s Jon Craig called the defection a “disastrous blow for the Conservatives and a massive propaganda coup for Labour”.

However, two councillors in Dr Poulter’s constituency seemed glad to see him go.

Councillor Samantha Murray said in a post on X that the local Conservative Party “have had to carry him for years”.

Councillor Ian Fisher posted: “Was campaigning this morning and he didn’t even have the decency to tell his hard-working activists in advance. A very self-centered man.”

Stop the boats? Sunak needs to stop the rot in the Tory party

Jon Craig

Chief political correspondent

@joncraig

Dr Poulter isn’t just any backbencher, which is what makes his defection to Labour all the more damaging for the prime minister and the Tory high command.

He’s an NHS doctor who’s worked in mental health services and was a junior health minister from 2012-15 when David Cameron was prime minister.

Alongside the formidable Mr Streeting, the dashing doctor will be a powerful advocate for Labour on the NHS.

Stop the boats? After the “honeytrap” MP scandal and the fiasco of the “bad people” MP, this calamitous defection from a high-profile and highly-respected MP, Mr Sunak needs to stop the rot in the Conservative Party.

A Conservative Party spokesperson responded to the resignation by saying the news would be “disappointing” for Dr Poulter’s constituents.

“Under the Conservatives we are raising NHS funding to a record £165bn a year, helping it recover from the effects of the pandemic and driving forward its first-ever long-term workforce plan so that we train the doctors and nurses we need for the future in our country.

“Thanks to our plan, we have already virtually eliminated the longest waits and overall waiting lists have fallen by 200,000 in the last five months – and we will go further to make sure everyone gets the world-class care they need.”

UK

Rishi Sunak says migrants going to Ireland shows Rwanda scheme is working as a deterrent

Published

8 hours ago

April 28, 2024

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Rishi Sunak says migrants going to Ireland shows Rwanda scheme is working as a deterrent

Migrants travelling to Ireland after arriving in the UK on small boats is a sign the Rwanda scheme is already working as a deterrent, Rishi Sunak has said.

Sky News’s Trevor Phillips asked the prime minister if migrants finding their way to Ireland was a sign the UK was “exporting the problem”.

Ireland’s deputy prime minister Micheal Martin said on Friday the threat of being deported to Rwanda had caused an influx of migrants to cross the border from Northern Ireland into the Republic.

In his interview – which will air in full on Sky’s Sunday Morning With Trevor Phillips show tomorrow at 8.30am – Mr Sunak was asked about the comments, saying they illustrated “the deterrent is… already having an impact”.

“People are worried about coming here and that demonstrates exactly what I’m saying,” he said. “If people come to our country illegally, but know that they won’t be able to stay there, they are much less likely to come, and that’s why the Rwanda scheme is so important.”

Downing Street on Friday rebuffed claims the Rwanda plan was already influencing movements into Ireland, saying it was too early to jump to conclusions on its impact.

Mr Sunak said the comments also illustrate “that illegal migration is a global challenge”.

“[That] is why you’re seeing multiple countries talk about doing third country partnerships, looking at novel ways to solve this problem, and I believe will follow where the UK has led,” he said.

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Mr Martin told The Daily Telegraph that the policy was already affecting Ireland, as people were “fearful” of staying in the UK.

Ireland’s deputy prime minister said: “Maybe that’s the impact it was designed to have.”

Mr Martin, who is also Ireland’s foreign minister, said asylum seekers were looking “to get sanctuary here and within the European Union as opposed to the potential of being deported to Rwanda”.

Danger for Sunak if new Act does not stop boats

Jon Craig

Chief political correspondent

@joncraig

On the Safety of Rwanda Bill, which finally became law this week after so-called “ping pong” between the Commons and the House of Lords, Mr Sunak said a deterrent was the only way to stop the boats.

“We did just have an important moment this week that in spite of all the opposition from the Labour Party we have passed the Rwanda bill through Parliament in the face of enormous opposition,” he told Sir Trevor.

“That’s important because the only way to fully solve this problem is to have a deterrent, so that if people come to a country illegally, they’re not able to stay, and we can return them.”

Refugee groups in Ireland admit that the threat of being deported to Rwanda is, as the Irish government claims, driving migrants across the border from Northern Ireland into the Republic.

Nick Henderson of the Irish Refugee Council told Sky News: “As long as there is a Rwanda policy and the Illegal Migration Act which states that somebody can’t lodge an application for asylum in the UK and have it considered if they enter in an irregular way, it’s going to have knock-on effects on Ireland, that’s plain to see.”

Now that the Rwanda legislation has finally become law, Tory MPs believe the PM can no longer blame his political opponents in parliament, in the Commons and the Lords, if it fails to stop the boats.

The danger for Mr Sunak, even his supporters concede, is that even if planes do take off for Rwanda this summer and some migrants head for Ireland, it may not stop the tide of more illegal migrants crossing the channel.

His comments came after Ireland’s justice minister told a committee of the Irish Parliament she estimates more than 80% of migrants in the Republic had crossed from Northern Ireland.

The UK’s prime minister told Trevor Phillips his focus “is on the United Kingdom and securing our border”.

The Safety of Rwanda Bill became an Act on Thursday, with Number 10 announcing the same day that the first deportation plane had been booked.

After a number of setbacks and delays, the bill passed in parliament earlier this week and then received royal assent, with Home Secretary James Cleverly hailing the approval as a “landmark moment in our plan to stop the boats”.

Anticipating the bill’s passage, the prime minister earlier this week promised the first flights would take off in 10 to 12 weeks – “come what may”.

Watch the full interview on Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips at 8.30am