DUP ‘in position’ to return to Stormont – if government sticks to its word

Published

3 months ago

January 30, 2024

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The Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) are “in a position” to restart the executive in Northern Ireland after a near two-year absence – if ministers keep to the “agreed timeline” over a fresh deal on post-Brexit trade, their leader has said.

The power-sharing agreement between the main parties at Stormont collapsed in 2022, with the unionist party refusing to return over its opposition to the government’s deal with the EU – which left a trade border down the Irish Sea and additional checks on goods travelling between Great Britain and Northern Ireland.

Sinn Fein also won the election for the first time, meaning the return of executive would see Northern Ireland’s first nationalist first minister installed – Michelle O’Neill – with the DUP taking the deputy first minister role.

Politics live: Stormont set for historic first minister as post-Brexit deal struck

The DUP and UK government have been at loggerheads over trade arrangements and the impact of the direct border with the EU on the island of Ireland.

But in the early hours of Tuesday morning, it was revealed an agreement had now been reached, paving the way for the assembly to get up and running again.

Leader of the DUP, Sir Jeffrey Donaldson, told reporters on Tuesday afternoon that the deal offered “further legal change that will be of real benefit to businesses in Northern Ireland [and] ensures that Northern Ireland benefits in full from UK free trade deals”.

He added: “These were key elements in our requirements in our negotiations from the government.”

The president of Sinn Fein, Mary Lou McDonald, told Sky News’ Politics Hub With Sophy Ridge that it was a day of “very great hope” and “some relief”, saying: “Of course there are some final matters to be concluded before the assembly is recalled, but it’s very positive here today in Belfast and right across Ireland.”

Ms McDonald also pledged that her colleague, Ms O’Neill, held a “deeply sincere commitment to act as a first minister for all”.

She added: “We will look to find the common ground, the high ground… and so I would say to the unionists in particular to take heart from the fact that we now have the chance for change and a platform to advance everybody’s standard of living, everybody’s life experience.”

The full details of the deal have yet to be released, with Sir Jeffrey saying they were set to come tomorrow.

But he did reveal the so-called “green lane” for goods being sent across the Irish Sea would be replaced by the UK internal market system that “reflects the reality that the UK is part of the United Kingdom”.

The DUP leader continued: “Goods flowing within the UK will flow freely – that was our core, key objective, and I believe what we have secured is real change and everybody will be able to see it for themselves.”

EU throws Sunak a bone over NI

Sam Coates

Deputy political editor

@SamCoatesSky

So the government has produced a rabbit out of the hat, just as we teeter on the edge of a deal to restore Stormont.

Suddenly they’ve revealed the fruits of months of secret negotiation with the EU, to change the legal text governing the way trade operates in Northern Ireland.

After some speculation that the UK was prepared to rewrite the rules unilaterally, it’s emerged that the EU not only knew, but were prepared to throw the UK government a bone in order to assist Rishi Sunak getting the Northern Ireland Assembly up and running.

Hard-line unionists will no doubt say it does not deal with the fundamental, quite existential questions raised by the Windsor Framework likely to play out over the next 20 years.

Nevertheless, the EU has been prepared to extend the range of goods it is content to see going into Northern Ireland without checks.

The change means the EU has agreed to expand the “not at risk” category of stuff that can use the goods Green Lane, which doesn’t require checks.

Supporters are claiming this means Northern Ireland can properly take advantage of free trade agreements struck by post-Brexit Britain.

Northern Ireland Secretary Chris Heaton-Harris says that it means a cut to food tariffs to goods like New Zealand lamb and Australian beef. We shall see.

Critically, politically, it has allowed Jeffrey Donaldson to strike a note of vindication against critics who say the “deal” the DUP has agreed to is meaningless.

“This demonstrates that the naysayers are wrong. There will be legal changes,” he trumpeted on social media.

This is further than many expected, and takes us even closer to a restoration of Stormont that feels closer than it has ever been so far.

The deal also has sign off from the EU, with a document being published from a joint committee with the UK showing the bloc was happy for more goods to head to Northern Ireland without being checked.

“We believe this represents a significant change,” said Sir Jeffrey. But he did appear to issue a thinly veiled warning to UK ministers.

“On the basis that the government continues to deliver the strength of the agreed timeline that we reached with them, then we will be in a position to convene a meeting of the assembly and proceed with the restoration of the political institutions,” he said.

Sir Jeffrey also confirmed that along with the civil service, Northern Ireland parties from all sides had already been meeting to discuss the issues at hand, including an ongoing dispute over public sector pay.

Earlier, the UK government’s Northern Ireland Secretary, Chris Heaton-Harris, welcomed the agreement, telling reporters: “I believe that all the conditions are now in place for the Assembly to return, and I look forward very much to the restoration of the institutions at Stormont as soon as possible.”

He also did not reveal specifics of the deal – saying other parties needed to be briefed first – but confirmed a financial package of £3.3bn will be available to the incoming executive.

However, Ms McDonald said: “The north of Ireland has been underfunded for a very, very long time.

“Although the headline figure of £3bn sounds like a lot, the reality is that it is still going to be a huge, huge challenge to fund this place correctly.”

Meanwhile, in her interview with Sky News, the Sinn Fein president also said “the days of partition are numbered”.

Ms McDonald’s party wants to see Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland united as one country – unlike the unionists, who want Northern Ireland to remain part of the UK.

She told Sophy Ridge: “The reality is that so long as Ireland is partitioned, we will face very, very significant economic challenges and disadvantages here in the North and all along the border.”

Politics

The Tories are expecting a pounding at the local elections – but could Labour have the harder job?

Published

60 mins ago

April 28, 2024

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The Tories are expecting a pounding at the local elections - but could Labour have the harder job?

Thursday’s local elections have been pencilled in as a day of peril for Rishi Sunak for so long, it’s hard to remember when Tory turbulence – and maybe even a leadership challenge – was not expected after 2 May.

Most council seats up for election were last contested in 2021, the high watermark of Boris Johnson’s political prowess, when the Tories were benefiting from a vaccine bounce.

Since then, the party has plunged in the polls after ploughing through two prime ministerial downfalls.

But in the Politics At Jack And Sam’s podcast, Politico UK editor Jack Blanchard and I explore whether it might be Labour who have the harder job to do if they don’t clean up some of the highest profile races, with Tories winning in long-time Labour areas.

👉 Listen above then tap here to follow Politics at Jack at Sam’s wherever you get your podcasts 👈

Thursday’s local elections see 107 councils, 10 high-profile metro mayors and a parliamentary by-election in Blackpool South.

Unusually, both Tories and Labour are broadly setting their expectations in the same place and, by also studying the work of Sky analyst Professor Michael Thrasher, we’ve been working out what might happen.

They both expect the council elections to see decent Labour seat gains and much bigger Tory losses, with the Tories specifically endorsing Thrasher’s analysis that they could be on course for 500 losses. That’s half the candidates they’re putting up.

It’s worth pointing out that of the 107 councils up, the Conservatives only control 18, so there aren’t many for them to lose outright.

They both say that the metro mayor contests could be the most important races of the night, and they both think it’s fairly likely Ben Houchen will win, meaning the Tories will hold on to the mayoralty of Tees Valley.

Labour deny suggestions they have been pulling resources from the seat, but concede victory will be hard.

West Midlands on a knife edge

Figures in both main parties think the West Midlands metro mayor race is on a knife edge, and that Tory Andy Street will probably win this, but they’re both not sure.

If that happens, it could be down not only to Street’s independent campaign which emphasised differences with Sunak, but also to George Galloway protege the youthful lawyer Akhmed Yakoob who is campaigning on Gaza, splitting the Labour vote.

Labour think they will pick up East Midlands, although while the Tories concur, they hope that their candidate, MP and council leader Ben Bradley, gets at least a decent showing.

Meanwhile, though the new North Yorkshire mayor, which encompasses Rishi Sunak’s seat, will probably go Tory, there are some positive signs for Labour.

I’m told while Labour are hopeful the new North East mayoralty will be taken by Kim McGuinness (who they’re more proud than some candidates), the ex-Labour mayor Jamie Driscoll, who was suspended, is a wild card that could disrupt the party’s efforts.

Both parties expect the Tories to lose the parliamentary seat of Blackpool South.

So what if this is the outcome – as both parties seem to be signalling?

There’s no doubt the results will be bad for the Tories, losing so many foot soldiers. Maybe the odd council.

But one of the biggest consequences in this election cycle is how Tories in parliament respond to this, and what they decide to do about it – if anything.

If they hang on to Tees Valley and/or West Midlands, they can claim some Red Wall success. Even if those candidates had campaigns very independent of Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives.

Rebels are gearing up

The rebels are gearing up with their 100 day “policy blitz” plan – they’ve said that to me – with or probably without Rishi Sunak, but I think they know this might not being the moment they hoped.

If both Street and Houchen win – I don’t think the rebels think there’s a chance letters go in, even though the rebels still think Tories will get annihilated at the general election.

Remember, you need 53 MPs to send letters of no confidence to Sir Graham Brady, and they’ve got two publicly.

Then there’s Labour. Labour will do well objectively, but again, there are sky-high expectations given recent polling.

Labour this year have done a more concerted effort on expectation management than I’ve seen in years ahead of this election, and they’ve told us very plainly that they were going to concentrate in the East Midlands, West Midlands and Tees Valley.

And that the mayors are the best guide to what’s going on.

They add that they’re doing this for the very simple reason there are lots of Parliamentary seats in the same geographical area, so you get double bubble – you’re campaigning for the GE too.

But now they now expect to lose one, maybe two of those races, Tees and West Midlands and there could be a decent Tory share of the vote in a third, the East Midlands.

So that doesn’t feel that great against what they were pointing to a few weeks ago.

Then look at council seats. If they gain net 350 seats – that’s the same improvement as last year, and not necessarily on course for Blair-style wins seen in some polling recently.

And then there will be the National Equivalent Vote, coming at the weekend from Thrasher and Rallings, which takes the local results and projects those voting figures into a nationwide vote estimate.

This had Labour on 30% in 2021, when they didn’t do so well, then 35% in 2022 and 36% last year. Does it go up? By how much?

Labour say they’re sure they will have a good story to tell whatever happens. But oddly, they may have the harder job, which is perhaps why some Labour figures are more jittery than their Tory counterparts.

Let’s see if that remains true in a week.

The full list of metro mayor elections and candidates

Tees Valley: Ben Houchen (Conservative), Chris McEwan (Labour), Simon Thorley (Lib Dems)

West Midlands: Andy Street Conservative, Richard Parker Labour, Sunny Virk Lib Dems, Siobhan Bridget Harper-Nunes Green Party, Elaine Ruth Williams Reform UK, Akhmed Yakoob Independent.

North East: Guy Renner-Thompson Conservative, Kim McGuinness Labour, Aidan King (Lib Dems), Andrew Gray (Green), Paul Donaghy (Reform UK), Jamie Driscoll (Independent)

East Midlands: Ben Bradley (Conservative), Claire Ward (Labour), Helen Tamblyn-Saville (Lib Dems), Frank Adlington-Stringer (Green), Alan Graves (Reform UK), Matt Relf (Independent)

Greater Manchester: Laura Evans (Conservative), Andy Burnham (Labour), Jake Austin (Lib Dems), Hannah Katherine Spencer (Green), Dan Barker (Reform UK), Nick Buckley (Independent)

Liverpool City: Jade Louise Marsden (Conservative), Steve Rotheram (Labour), Rob McAllister-Bell (Lib Dems), Tom Crone (Green), Ian Edward Smith (Independent)

South Yorkshire: Nick Allen (Conservative), Oliver James Coppard (Labour), Hannah Kitching (Lib Dems), Douglas James Preston Johnson (Green), David Bettney (Social Democratic Party)

West Yorkshire: Arnold Eric Craven (Conservative), Tracy Lynn Brabin (Labour), Stewart Golton (Lib Dems), Andrew Varah Cooper (Green), Bob Buxton (Yorkshire Party), Jonathan Richard Tilt (Independent)

York and North Yorkshire: Keane Charles Duncan (Conservative), David Skaith (Labour), Felicity Claire Cunliffe-Lister (Lib Dems), Kevin Foster (Green), Paul Haslam (Independent), Keith Graham Tordoff (Independent)

London: Susan Mary Hall (Conservative), Sadiq Khan (Labour), Rob Blackie (Lib Dems), Zoe Garbett (Green), Howard Cox (Reform UK), Amy Gallagher (Social Democratic Party), Count Binface (Count Binface for Mayor of London), Brian Benedict Rose (London Real Party), Femy Amin (Animal Welfare Party), Nick Scanlon (Britain First), Natalie Denise Campbell (Independent), Tarun Ghulati (Independent), Andreas Christoffi Michli (Independent)