The signs point to interest rate cuts within months – here’s why

Published

1 year ago

February 1, 2024

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The conversation about rate cuts has now officially begun.

For months, even as the market began to bet that the Bank of England would soon begin reducing the cost of borrowing, those in Threadneedle Street were adamant that the time for such conversations had not yet come.

In the minutes alongside each of its decisions, the Bank dropped heavy hints that it was just as, if not more, likely that the next move in interest rates would be up rather than down.

Follow live: Reaction to Bank of England decision

Now, everything has changed. Today we learnt that one of the nine members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted for a quarter point reduction in interest rates this month.

In the event, the member, Swati Dhingra, was outvoted by her fellow rate-setters, most of whom wanted to leave borrowing costs at 5.25%. Indeed, at the same meeting two members voted for higher rates.

Even so, this feels like one of those watershed moments – the beginning of a conversation which is increasingly likely to end in action, with Britain’s official borrowing costs being cut, perhaps within a few months.

To see why it’s helpful to consider the Kremlinology whereby the Bank drops hints about its future plans.

While in public the governor rarely, if ever, says baldly what they plan to do with interest rates in the coming months, there are a few ways in which he signals which way they are inclined to go.

One of them is the phraseology of the minutes, released alongside each decision.

In previous minutes, the Bank had included a telling phrase: “Further tightening in monetary policy would be required if there were evidence of more persistent inflationary pressures.”

The point had been that, while many had come to assume that 5.25% would be the peak for interest rates, another rise was even more likely than a cut.

That phrase has been removed from the latest set of minutes, and replaced with a more neutral wording: “the committee will keep under review for how long Bank Rate should be maintained at its current level.”

Bang on target

Another signal comes via the so-called “fan charts” the Bank provides of where it expects inflation to go in the coming years.

There are two versions of these charts: one which shows where inflation will go if interest rates are left on hold at their current level, and another which shows where inflation will go if interest rates follow market expectations.

Here, too, there is a clear hint. The chart based on constant interest rates shows a very sharp fall in inflation to well below the Bank’s 2% target.

The accompanying chart showing the impact on gross domestic product – the best measure of economic growth – paints the picture of a deep recession.

On both of these bases, leaving rates on hold indefinitely would clearly be a mistake.

But, of course, investors are betting that rates won’t stay unchanged; they reckon the Bank will begin to cut them this summer, taking them down from 5.25% to just above 3% in the next few years.

Look at the second set of Bank inflation charts, which follow the thought experiment that the Bank indeed does what markets expect, and you see that far from dropping well below target, inflation hits 2% briefly this year (in part a statistical effect because of how volatile energy prices have been in the past year), rises again, but then eventually comes back to settle at around 2% by the end of 2026.

In short, it’s pretty much bang on target.

Most investors will look at all of this evidence and come to the conclusion that the Bank is not pushing back on their expectations for rates falling in the middle of the year and then continuing to fall in the coming years.

Business

Insurer Hiscox lines up chairman months after Bayesian sinking

Published

14 hours ago

April 7, 2025

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Hiscox, the London-listed insurer, is close to naming a new chairman nearly eight months after the drowning of Jonathan Bloomer on the luxury yacht of technology tycoon Mike Lynch.

Sky News has learnt that Hiscox has narrowed its search to candidates including Richard Berliand, who chairs the interdealer broker TP ICAP.

Insurance insiders said that Mr Berliand was among fewer than a handful of potential successors to Mr Bloomer.

The sinking of the Bayesian off the Sicilian coast last August claimed the lives of Mr Lynch and his daughter, along with five other passengers, including Mr Bloomer.

A former boss of Prudential, Mr Bloomer was a well-liked figure in the City.

He had chaired Hiscox for just a year when he died.

The identities of the other candidates being considered by the company were unclear on Monday.

Hiscox, which has a market capitalisation of just over £3.8bn, has seen its shares slip by about 12pc over the last year.

It was founded as a single underwriter at Lloyd’s in 1901.

A Hiscox spokesperson declined to comment.

Business

Asian stock markets tumble – with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index suffering worst fall for 28 years

Published

19 hours ago

April 7, 2025

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Asian stock markets tumble - with Hong Kong's Hang Seng index suffering worst fall for 28 years

Asian stock markets have fallen dramatically amid escalating fears of a global trade war – as Donald Trump called his tariffs “medicine” and showed no sign of backing down.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index of shares closed down 13.2% – its biggest drop since 1997, while the Shanghai composite index lost 7.3% – the worst fall there since 2020.

Taiwan’s stock market was also hammered, losing nearly 10% on Monday, its biggest one-day drop on record.

Elsewhere, Japan’s Nikkei 225 lost 7.8%, while London’s FTSE 100 was down 4.85% by 9am.

Tariffs latest – FTSE falls after Asian markets tumble

US stock market futures signalled further losses were ahead when trading begins in America later.

At 4am EST, the S&P 500 futures was down 4.93%, the Dow Jones 4.32% and the Nasdaq 5.33%.

Markets are reacting to ongoing uncertainty over the impact of President Trump’s tariffs on goods imported to the US, which he announced last week.

Speaking on Air Force One on Sunday, Mr Trump said foreign governments would have to pay “a lot of money” to lift his tariffs.

“I don’t want anything to go down. But sometimes you have to take medicine to fix something,” he said.

The US president said world leaders were trying to convince him to lower further tariffs, which are due to take effect this week.

“I spoke to a lot of leaders, European, Asian, from all over the world,” Mr Trump told reporters.

“They’re dying to make a deal. And I said, we’re not going to have deficits with your country.

“We’re not going to do that because to me, a deficit is a loss. We’re going to have surpluses or, at worst, going to be breaking even.”

Mr Trump, who spent much of the weekend playing golf in Florida, posted on his Truth Social platform: “WE WILL WIN. HANG TOUGH, it won’t be easy.”

President Trump believes his policy will make the US richer, forcing companies to relocate more manufacturing to America and creating jobs.

However, his announcement has shocked stock markets, triggered retaliatory levies from China and sparked fears of a global trade war.

Reality hits that trade war no longer just a threat

China’s announcement of its tariff retaliation came late afternoon on Friday local time.

Most Asian markets closed shortly after – and markets in China, Hong Kong and Taiwan were closed for a public holiday – meaning the scale of the hit did not play out until today.

This morning we are getting a sense of the impact. Dramatic falls across all Asian markets clearly signal a realisation a global trade war is no longer just a threat, but a reality here to stay, and a global recession could yet follow.

Up until Friday, China’s response to Donald Trump’s tariffs had been perceived as restrained and designed to avoid escalation, the markets had reacted accordingly.

But that all changed last week when Mr Trump’s new 34% levy on all Chinese goods was matched by China with an identical tax. Both sit on top of previous tariffs levied, meaning many goods now face rates in excess of 50%.

These are numbers that make most trade between the world’s two biggest economies almost impossible and that will have a global impact.

China has clearly decided any forthcoming pain will have to be managed, and not being seen to be cowed and bullied by Mr Trump is being deemed more important.

But the scale of the retaliation will have further spooked the markets as it makes the prospect of negotiation and retreat increasingly unlikely.

Mr Trump added to the atmosphere of intransigence when he told the media on Sunday the trade deficit with China would need to be addressed before any deal could be done. The complete lack of concern from the White House over the weekend will also not have helped.

While smaller economies like Japan, South Korea, Cambodia and Vietnam are all lining up to attempt to negotiate, there are a lot of nations in that queue.

There is a sense none of this will be easily rectified.

US customs agents began collecting Mr Trump’s baseline 10% tariff on Saturday.

Higher “reciprocal” tariffs of between 11% and 50% – depending on the country – are due to kick in on Wednesday.

Investors and world leaders are unsure whether the US tariffs are here to stay or a negotiating tactic to win concessions from other countries.

Richard Flax, chief investment officer at wealth manager Moneyfarm, said: “I guess there was some hope over the weekend that maybe we would see this as part of the start of a negotiation.

“But the messages that we’ve so far seen suggest that the President Trump is comfortable with the market reaction and that he’s going to continue on this course.

Goldman Sachs has raised the odds of a US recession to 45%, joining other investment banks that have also revised their forecasts.

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In the UK, Sir Keir Starmer has promised “bold changes” and said he would relax rules around electric vehicles as British carmakers deal with a new 25% US tariff on vehicles.

The prime minister said “global trade is being transformed” by President Trump’s actions.

KPMG has warned tariffs on UK exports could see GDP growth fall to 0.8% in 2025 and 2026.

The accountancy firm said higher tariffs on specific categories, such as cars, aluminium and steel, would more than offset the exemption on pharmaceutical exports, leaving the effective tariff rate around 12%.

Yael Selfin, chief economist at KPMG UK, said: “Given the economic impact that tariffs would cause, there is a strong incentive to seek a negotiated settlement that diminishes the need for tariffs.

“The UK automotive manufacturing sector is particularly exposed given the complex supply chains of some producers.”

Business

Trump’s tariffs: A negotiating tactic or the start of an ‘economic nuclear winter’?

Published

21 hours ago

April 7, 2025

admin

Trump's tariffs: A negotiating tactic or the start of an 'economic nuclear winter'?

Traders called this morning a complete bloodbath as the UK’s FTSE 100 joined world indexes in turning red as uncertainty over Donald Trump’s tariffs continued to batter stock markets.

Across Asia and Europe, hundreds of billions have been wiped off companies’ values, particularly in banking and manufacturing.

The cause is not just the imposition of those tariffs (the largest the US has inflicted since the 1930s) and the very obvious drag this will have on global trade and growth, but also the uncertainty of ‘what next?’.

Trump tariffs latest: Musk shares video about ‘essential’ free market

Investors cannot work out if the Trump administration is genuinely wedded to tariffs on this scale, on the proviso that they will help re-shore companies and millions of jobs to the United States.

They don’t know if they are permanent or merely part of a negotiating tactic to address trade imbalances, and for America to use its economic heft to strike better deals.

If Mr Trump is open to deals (the first test comes later in a meeting with the Israeli prime minister), markets will calm, even if the midst of uncertainty hasn’t fully cleared.

However, if this is a genuine rewiring of global trade and the end of globalisation as we know it, markets and economies will continue to get battered.

As one Trump supporter, billionaire Bill Ackman – who opposes the tariffs – put it, President Trump has launched a “global economic war against the whole world” that will usher in an “economic nuclear winter.”

It’s time for all of us to buckle up.