Connect with us

Published

on

The conversation about rate cuts has now officially begun.

For months, even as the market began to bet that the Bank of England would soon begin reducing the cost of borrowing, those in Threadneedle Street were adamant that the time for such conversations had not yet come.

In the minutes alongside each of its decisions, the Bank dropped heavy hints that it was just as, if not more, likely that the next move in interest rates would be up rather than down.

Follow live: Reaction to Bank of England decision

Now, everything has changed. Today we learnt that one of the nine members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted for a quarter point reduction in interest rates this month.

In the event, the member, Swati Dhingra, was outvoted by her fellow rate-setters, most of whom wanted to leave borrowing costs at 5.25%. Indeed, at the same meeting two members voted for higher rates.

Even so, this feels like one of those watershed moments – the beginning of a conversation which is increasingly likely to end in action, with Britain’s official borrowing costs being cut, perhaps within a few months.

To see why it’s helpful to consider the Kremlinology whereby the Bank drops hints about its future plans.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Can the govt afford to cut taxes?

While in public the governor rarely, if ever, says baldly what they plan to do with interest rates in the coming months, there are a few ways in which he signals which way they are inclined to go.

One of them is the phraseology of the minutes, released alongside each decision.

In previous minutes, the Bank had included a telling phrase: “Further tightening in monetary policy would be required if there were evidence of more persistent inflationary pressures.”

The point had been that, while many had come to assume that 5.25% would be the peak for interest rates, another rise was even more likely than a cut.

That phrase has been removed from the latest set of minutes, and replaced with a more neutral wording: “the committee will keep under review for how long Bank Rate should be maintained at its current level.”

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Breakdown of 2023 UK economy

Bang on target

Another signal comes via the so-called “fan charts” the Bank provides of where it expects inflation to go in the coming years.

There are two versions of these charts: one which shows where inflation will go if interest rates are left on hold at their current level, and another which shows where inflation will go if interest rates follow market expectations.

Here, too, there is a clear hint. The chart based on constant interest rates shows a very sharp fall in inflation to well below the Bank’s 2% target.

The accompanying chart showing the impact on gross domestic product – the best measure of economic growth – paints the picture of a deep recession.

On both of these bases, leaving rates on hold indefinitely would clearly be a mistake.

Read more from business:
Labour defends decision not to restore bankers’ bonus cap
Shell reports fall in profits to £22bn after record 2022
PwC kicks off hunt for successor to Ellis as UK chief

But, of course, investors are betting that rates won’t stay unchanged; they reckon the Bank will begin to cut them this summer, taking them down from 5.25% to just above 3% in the next few years.

Look at the second set of Bank inflation charts, which follow the thought experiment that the Bank indeed does what markets expect, and you see that far from dropping well below target, inflation hits 2% briefly this year (in part a statistical effect because of how volatile energy prices have been in the past year), rises again, but then eventually comes back to settle at around 2% by the end of 2026.

In short, it’s pretty much bang on target.

Most investors will look at all of this evidence and come to the conclusion that the Bank is not pushing back on their expectations for rates falling in the middle of the year and then continuing to fall in the coming years.

Continue Reading

Business

UK economy grows by 0.1% between July and September – slower than expected

Published

on

By

UK economy grows by 0.1% between July and September - slower than expected

The UK economy grew by 0.1% between July and September, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

However, despite the small positive GDP growth recorded in the third quarter, the economy shrank by 0.1% in September, dragging down overall growth for the quarter.

The growth was also slower than what had been expected by experts and a drop from the 0.5% growth between April and June, the ONS said.

Economists polled by Reuters and the Bank of England had forecast an expansion of 0.2%, slowing from the rapid growth seen over the first half of 2024 when the economy was rebounding from last year’s shallow recession.

And the metric that Labour has said it is most focused on – the GDP per capita, or the economic output divided by the number of people in the country – also fell by 0.1%.

Reacting to the figures, Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves said: “Improving economic growth is at the heart of everything I am seeking to achieve, which is why I am not satisfied with these numbers,” she said in response to the figures.

“At my budget, I took the difficult choices to fix the foundations and stabilise our public finances.

“Now we are going to deliver growth through investment and reform to create more jobs and more money in people’s pockets, get the NHS back on its feet, rebuild Britain and secure our borders in a decade of national renewal,” Ms Reeves added.

The sluggish services sector – which makes up the bulk of the British economy – was a particular drag on growth over the past three months. It expanded by 0.1%, cancelling out the 0.8% growth in the construction sector

The UK’s GDP for the the most recent quarter is lower than the 0.7% growth in the US and 0.4% in the Eurozone.

The figures have pushed the UK towards the bottom of the G7 growth table for the third quarter of the year.

It was expected to meet the same 0.2% growth figures reported in Germany and Japan – but fell below that after a slow September.

The pound remained stable following the news, hovering around $1.267. The FTSE 100, meanwhile, opened the day down by 0.4%.

The Bank of England last week predicted that Ms Reeves’s first budget as chancellor will increase inflation by up to half a percentage point over the next two years, contributing to a slower decline in interest rates than previously thought.

Announcing a widely anticipated 0.25 percentage point cut in the base rate to 4.75%, the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) forecast that inflation will return “sustainably” to its target of 2% in the first half of 2027, a year later than at its last meeting.

The Bank’s quarterly report found Ms Reeves’s £70bn package of tax and borrowing measures will place upward pressure on prices, as well as delivering a three-quarter point increase to GDP next year.

Continue Reading

Business

Chancellor’s Mansion House speech vows to rip up red tape – saying post-financial crash rules went ‘too far’

Published

on

By

Chancellor's Mansion House speech vows to rip up red tape - saying post-financial crash rules went 'too far'

Chancellor Rachel Reeves has criticised post-financial crash regulation, saying it has “gone too far” – setting a course for cutting red tape in her first speech to Britain’s most important gathering of financiers and business leaders.

Increased rules on lenders that followed the 2008 crisis have had “unintended consequences”, Ms Reeves will say in her Mansion House address to industry and the City of London’s lord mayor.

“The UK has been regulating for risk, but not regulating for growth,” she will say.

It cannot be taken for granted that the UK will remain a global financial centre, she is expected to add.

Money blog: Britain’s most affordable town revealed

It’s anticipated Ms Reeves will on Thursday announce “growth-focused remits” for financial regulators and next year publish the first strategy for financial services growth and competitiveness.

Rachel Reeves
Image:
Rachel Reeves


Bank governor to point out ‘consequences’ of Brexit

Also at the Mansion House dinner the governor of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey will say the UK economy is bigger than we think because we’re not measuring it properly.

A new measure to be used by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) – which will include the value of data – will probably be “worth a per cent or two on GDP”. GDP is a key way of tracking economic growth and counts the value of everything produced.

Brexit has reduced the level of goods coming into the UK, Mr Bailey will also say, and the government must be alert to and welcome opportunities to rebuild relations.

Mr Bailey will caveat he takes no position on “Brexit per se” but does have to point out its consequences.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Bailey: Inflation expected to rise

In what appears to be a reference to the debate around UK immigration policy, Mr Bailey will also say the UK’s ageing population means there are fewer workers, which should be included in the discussion.

The greying labour force “makes the productivity and investment issue all the more important”.

“I will also say this: when we think about broad policy on labour supply, the economic arguments must feature in the debate,” he’s due to add.

Follow Sky News on WhatsApp
Follow Sky News on WhatsApp

Keep up with all the latest news from the UK and around the world by following Sky News

Tap here

The exact numbers of people at work are unknown in part due to fewer people answering the phone when the ONS call.

Mr Bailey described this as “a substantial problem”.

He will say: “I do struggle to explain when my fellow [central bank] governors ask me why the British are particularly bad at this. The Bank, alongside other users, including the Treasury, continue to engage with the ONS on efforts to tackle these problems and improve the quality of UK labour market data.”

Continue Reading

Business

Reeves has welcome support from Bank’s governor as she goes for growth and seeks to woo City

Published

on

By

Reeves has welcome support from Bank's governor as she goes for growth and seeks to woo City

When Gordon Brown delivered his first Mansion House speech as chancellor he caused a stir by doing so in a lounge suit, rather than the white tie and tails demanded by convention.

Some 27 years later Rachel Reeves is the first chancellor who would have not drawn a second glance had they addressed the City establishment in a dress.

As the first woman in the 800-year history of her office, Ms Reeves’s tenure will be littered with reminders of her significance, but few will be as symbolic as a dinner that is a fixture of the financial calendar.

Money latest: UK gas prices spike

Her host at Mansion House, asset manager Alastair King, is the 694th man out of 696 Lord Mayors of London. The other guest speaker, Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey, leads an institution that is yet to be entrusted to a woman.

Ms Reeves’s speech indicates she wants to lean away from convention in policy as well as in person.

By committing to tilting financial regulation in favour of growth rather than risk aversion, she is going against the grain of the post-financial crash environment.

“This sector is the crown jewel in our economy,” she will tell her audience – many of whom will have been central players in the 2007-08 collapse.

Sending a message that they will be less tightly bound in future is not natural territory for a Labour chancellor.

Her motivation may be more practical than political. A tax-and-spend budget that hit business harder than forewarned has put her economic program on notice and she badly needs the growth elements to deliver.

Britain's Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves poses with the red budget box outside her office on Downing Street in London, Britain October 30, 2024. REUTERS/Maja Smiejkowska
Image:
Rachel Reeves on budget day. Pic: PA

Her plans to consolidate local authority pension schemes so they might match the investing power of their Canadian and Australian counterparts is part of the same theme.

Infrastructure investment is central to Reeves’s plan and these steps, universally welcomed, could unlock the private sector funding required to make it happen.

Bank governor frank on Brexit and growth

If the jury is out in a business financial community absorbing £25bn in tax rises, she has welcome support from Mr Bailey.

He is expected to deliver some home truths about the economic inheritance in plainer language than central bankers sometimes manage.

Britain’s growth potential, he says, “is not a good story”. He describes the labour market as “running against us” in the face of an ageing population.

With investment levels “particularly weak by G7 standards”, he will thank the chancellor for the pension reforms intended to unlock capital investment.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Governor warns inflation expected to rise

He is frank about Brexit too, more so than the chancellor has dared.

While studiously offering no view on the central issue, Mr Bailey says leaving the EU had slowed the UK’s potential for growth, and that the government should “welcome opportunities to rebuild relations”.

There is a more coded warning too about the risks of protectionism, which is perhaps more likely with Donald Trump in the White House.

“Amid threats to economic security, let’s please remember the importance of openness,” the Bank governor will say.

Follow Sky News on WhatsApp
Follow Sky News on WhatsApp

Keep up with all the latest news from the UK and around the world by following Sky News

Tap here

All that is welcome for Ms Reeves.

Already a groundbreaking chancellor, she is aiming for a political and economic legacy that extends beyond her gender and the dress code.

Continue Reading

Trending