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The Bank of England has forecast that inflation could ease to its 2% target within a few months – as it opted to hold borrowing costs at 5.25% for the fourth time in a row.

It came as one of the members of the Bank‘s rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee voted for a cut in its base-level interest rate for the first time since the pandemic.

Britain’s central bank signalled that it was now edging closer to reducing the rate, as it dropped language about the potential need for further hikes from the minutes of its meeting and did not push back against widespread expectations that it will begin cutting later this year.

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In a further sign that it is beginning to consider lowering the rate, the nine-member committee was split three ways, with one member, Swati Dhingra, voting for a cut, two members voting for higher rates and the remaining six members favouring a hold.

It is the first time since March 2020 that a member has voted for lower rates, and the first time since March 2008 that the committee was split three ways over whether to raise, lower or hold.

Investors currently anticipate that the Bank will begin cutting rates in the middle of the year, reducing them to just over 3% by 2026.

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The Bank’s forecasts did little to dissuade them that these cuts are coming, though governor Andrew Bailey said the moment had not yet come.

He pointed to the fact that while the consumer price index measure of annual inflation is set to drop to 2% in April, it will later bounce back, mostly due to energy costs.

He said: “Today we’ve decided to hold interest rates at 5.25%. We have had good news on inflation over the past few months. It has fallen a long way, from 10% a year ago to 4%.

“But we need to see more evidence that inflation is set to fall all the way to the 2% target, and stay there, before we can lower interest rates.”

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The Bank upgraded its forecasts for gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the coming years, projecting annual growth rates of 0.5% by early next year (compared with a previous forecast of zero growth), 0.8% by early 2026 (compared with 0.6%) and 1.5% by early 2027.

However, it said that it expected only zero GDP growth in the final quarter of last year – implying (since the previous quarter was a contraction) that there is a near 50:50 chance of the UK facing a technical recession.

The Bank’s economists reckon that around two-thirds of the impact of higher interest rates has now fed through to the wider economy, but more than two million households are still due to see their mortgages refix to higher rates in the coming months.

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Post Office lawyer accused of telling ‘big fat lie’ to Horizon inquiry

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Post Office lawyer accused of telling 'big fat lie' to Horizon inquiry

A former top Post Office lawyer has been accused of telling the Horizon IT inquiry a “big fat lie” over his knowledge of a bug in the system that could have stopped wrongful prosecutions of sub-postmasters in their tracks.

Jarnail Singh was a senior in-house lawyer and subsequently head of criminal law at the Post Office from 2012.

The inquiry into the Horizon scandal heard he was copied into an email containing a report which identified the glitch in the accounting system but denied knowledge of it for years – despite saving the document and printing it out.

Mr Singh denied the claims by Jason Beer KC, counsel to the inquiry.

Mr Beer said the report was sent to Mr Singh just three days before sub-postmaster Seema Misra’s case began in October 2010.

Ms Misra was eight weeks pregnant when she was handed a 15-month prison sentence after being accused of stealing £74,000 from her branch in West Byfleet, Surrey.

Her conviction was later quashed by the Court of Appeal.

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Sub-postmistress wrongly jailed while pregnant

Mr Singh said he “wasn’t made aware” of the report, written by Fujitsu engineer Gareth Jenkins.

Explanation of bug

Mr Beer said it described a bug “that will result in a receipts payment mismatch” and offered an explanation for apparent cases of theft among sub-postmasters.

He added that a file address on the bottom of the document, which included Mr Singh’s name, showed the lawyer had both saved the report to his drive and printed it out only nine minutes later.

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Ex-Post Office exec accused of lying

He said this proved Mr Singh had lied years later when he denied having advance knowledge of the issues uncovered by a 2013 report carried out by forensic accounting firm Second Sight.

Mr Singh said he also did not know how to save or print documents during his employment at the organisation and had to ask others to do it for him.

Mr Beer accused Mr Singh of telling “a big fat lie” to the inquiry and of having failed to disclose important information to the defence or court ahead of Ms Misra’s prosecution, asking: “You’d known about the bug all along hadn’t you, Mr Singh?”

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‘I have had breakdowns’

The lawyer responded: “No, that’s not true.”

Admission of mistakes

He also denied any suggestion of a cover up but admitted that “mistakes were made” in the prosecution of Ms Misra.

Mr Singh said: “I’m ever so sorry Ms Misra had suffered and I am ever so embarrassed to be here, that we made those mistakes and put somebody’s liberty at stake and the loss she suffered and the damage caused which was not what this was about.”

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Following her case, hundreds of people were later wrongly convicted of stealing after bugs and errors in the accounting system, operated by Fujitsu, made it appear as though money was missing at their branches.

There were more than 700 convictions in total, dating back from 1995 to 2015.

Victims not only faced prison but financial ruin. Others were ostracised by their communities, while some took their own lives.

Fresh attention was brought to the scandal after ITV broadcast the drama Mr Bates Vs The Post Office, prompting government action that aims to speed up the clearing of names and payments of compensation.

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Worry for economy as public sector productivity falls further

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Worry for economy as public sector productivity falls further

Official figures have raised fears of a deepening public sector drag on the the UK’s economic recovery from recession.

Data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed that productivity in the public sector, dominated by education and healthcare, deteriorated between the third and fourth quarters of 2023.

It measured a 1.0% decline over the period, leaving the figure 2.3% lower than a year ago and even further away from recovering pre-pandemic levels.

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The gap was put at 6.8%.

Public sector productivity measures the volume of services delivered against the volume of inputs – like salaries and government funding – that are needed to maintain those services.

While the sector has witnessed hits from the impacts of strikes since the end of the COVID crisis, the NHS has struggled to deal with a worsening backlog in many key waiting lists.

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Rows over funding have been exacerbated by record levels of long-term sickness.

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UK’s economy has ‘turned corner’

The official jobless rate stands at just over 4% – around 1.4 million people.

However, the numbers judged to be economically inactive due to poor health are nearing double that sum.

The Office for Budget Responsibility has estimated that the issue has added around £16bn to annual government borrowing bills.

Pressures have been reflected in ONS data, with output in both the health and education sectors falling during the fourth quarter of the year – contributing to the country’s recession.

That was despite rising inputs over the period.

Back in March, chancellor Jeremy Hunt used his budget to announce a Public Sector Productivity Plan – with an emphasis on improving technology in the National Health Service (NHS).

Figures next week are widely expected to confirm the end of the recession, with overall output returning to growth during the first quarter of the year.

Recent private sector surveys have painted a rosy picture for the dominant services sector, which accounts for almost 80% of overall output, despite continued pressure on budgets from the impact of higher inflation and interest rates to help cure the price problem.

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Apple reports biggest drop in iPhone sales since early months of pandemic – and reveals AI plans

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Apple reports biggest drop in iPhone sales since early months of pandemic - and reveals AI plans

Tech giant Apple has recorded the biggest drop in iPhone sales since the early months of the COVID pandemic.

Sales for January to March were down 10% on the same period last year – something not seen since the 2020 iPhone model was delayed due to lockdown factory closures.

Overall, Apple earned $90.8bn (£72.4bn) in the latest quarter – down 4% from last year. It was the fifth consecutive three-month period that the company’s revenue dipped from the previous year.

Apple’s profit in the past quarter was $23.64bn (£18.85bn) – a 2% dip from last year.

It was good news, however, for the overall value of the company as its share price rose nearly 7% after investors had expected a bigger drop in sales.

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March: Apple accused of locking out rivals

Meanwhile, Apple chief executive Tim Cook has discussed how the company is set to use artificial intelligence (AI).

While rival Samsung introduced phones that can feature AI, including generative AI chatbots, Apple has yet to announce how it will be embedded into its iPhones.

The next iPhone is expected to feature AI microchips and bigger screens.

Apple will reveal the newest software when it holds its annual developers’ conference in June.

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Generative AI could power phones to write software code, essays or create images based on a prompt by users.

Mr Cook said the company feels “very bullish about our opportunity in generative AI and we’re making significant investments”, adding: “We’re looking forward to sharing some very exciting things.”

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