The US is trying to hit Iranian targets in the Middle East hard enough to stop attacks against American forces but not so hard that it triggers wider escalation or even direct war with Iran.
Experts in recent days have dubbed the strategy the “Goldilocks” approach because it needs to be just right.
Joe Biden made clear that a response was coming from the moment he accused “radical Iran-backed militant groups operating in Syria and Iraq” of killing three US service personnel in Jordan in a drone attack almost a week ago.
But the president also signalled his retaliation would be calculated rather than rushed, saying it would be “at a time and in a manner of our choosing”.
This bought the administration time to try to navigate the slimmest of paths between a meaningful, powerful and effective military strike against Iranian interests and igniting new conflict in a region that is already at boiling point following the 7 October Hamas attack on Israel that prompted the Israeli war in Gaza.
Image: Map shows approximate targets of US strikes
By choosing not to hit Iran itself directly, Mr Biden has very deliberately sought to avoid escalation, even though he could potentially have justified strikes inside Iranian territory given Tehran’s alleged backing of the groups accused of the lethal drone attack in Jordan.
However, he has still chosen to go after Iran’s elite Quds Force, within the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) – the most potent arm of Iranian military power in the region and the organisation that runs Tehran’s network of proxy militias.
This level of attack could yet trigger a direct, escalatory Iranian response against US targets. Washington will be hoping it won’t.
Almost exactly three years ago, when Donald Trumpwas president, the US killed the top Iranian general who had led the Quds Force during its most effective period of proxy warfare against US, British and other Western interests in the Middle East.
The assassination of Qasem Soleimani in a drone strike in Iraq in January 2020 triggered an Iranian missile attack against US forces, also in Iraq, in response – a moment of acute peril when the two sides last seemed on the brink of spiralling into all-out war.
That did not happen.
This time around, the Biden administration will likely have tried to work behind the scenes with Iran to reduce the risk of a similar kind of Iranian retaliation in kind.
Washington has also stated that Friday’s strikes were just the beginning, meaning that its adversaries are on notice.
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1:41
Biden joins families of US troops killed in drone attack
The president again framed his threat to give a sense that this was the US calling the shots rather than being forced into taking action.
“Our response began today,” he said in a statement released by the White House on Friday. “It will continue at times and places of our choosing.”
He added: “The United States does not seek conflict in the Middle East or anywhere else in the world. But let all those who might seek to do us harm know this: If you harm an American, we will respond.”
For now, perhaps the biggest danger for the United States is that its barrage of strikes against 85 Iranian-linked targets in Iraq and Syria will not be sufficient to deter new attacks that harm or take more American lives.
If that happens again, the president may be left with no choice but to order strikes against Iran directly.
The Russian president thinks he’s winning this war, and it’s hard to escape the conclusion that he’s using diplomacy to play for time while he carries on beating down the Ukrainians’ will to win.
And at the moment, no one is stopping him
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4:40
At least 14 killed in Kyiv attack
Ukraineis hitting back, particularly at Russia‘s oil installations, more of them going up in thick black smoke, after being hit by long-range Ukrainian drones.
It is taking a heavy toll on Putin’s ‘Achilles heel’, but on its own, analysts don’t expect it will be enough to persuade him to end this war.
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2:00
British Council building hit in Kyiv
The West can wring its hands in condemnation.
But it’s divided between Europe that wants a ceasefire and much more severe sanctions, and Donald Trump, who, it seems, does not – strangely always willing to sympathise with the Russians more than Ukraine.
He’s back to blaming Ukraine for starting the war, saying earlier in the week that Kyiv should not have got into a war it had no chance of winning.
It is a grotesque perversion of history. Ukraine, of course, had no choice but to fight to defend itself when it was invaded in an act of unprovoked aggression.
Every time the US president has condemned Russia for these kinds of attacks, he has never followed through and done nothing to punish them.
Image: Rescue workers carry an injured woman after a Russian strike on Kyiv, Ukraine. Pic: AP
More worryingly for the Ukrainians, the Russians are getting the upper hand in the drones war, taking Iranian technology and souping it up into faster-moving drones that the Ukrainians are having increasing difficulty bringing down.
They expect as many as a thousand drones a night coming their way by the winter, and many, many more innocents to die.
A war that began as one man’s mad idea has, in three and a half years, metastasised into a titanic struggle between east and west, fought increasingly with machines in a dystopian evolution of war.
If Mr Trump is not prepared to use his power to bring this war to an end, what will another three and a half years of his presidency bring?
Eighteen other people were injured, including children aged between six and 15 and three adults in their 80s.
Police said Robin Westman, a male born as Robert Westman, opened fire with a rifle through the windows of the school’s church as children sat in pews.
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17:49
New details released of US school shooting
‘Our hearts are broken’
Harper’s parents, Michael Moyski and Jackie Flavin, remembered her as “a bright, joyful, and deeply loved 10-year-old whose laughter, kindness, and spirit touched everyone who knew her”.
“Our hearts are broken not only as parents, but also for Harper’s sister, who adored her big sister and is grieving an unimaginable loss. As a family, we are shattered, and words cannot capture the depth of our pain,” their statement said.
They urged leaders and communities to “take meaningful steps to address gun violence and the mental health crisis in this country.”
“Change is possible, and it is necessary – so that Harper’s story does not become yet another in a long line of tragedies,” the statement added.
Image: The family of Fletcher Merkel said there was a ‘hole in our hearts’. Pic: Family handout/AP
‘Fletcher loved his family’
In a statement reported by Sky’s US partner network NBC News, Fletcher’s father Jesse Merkel blamed the “coward” killer for why the boy’s family can’t “hold him, talk to him, play with him, and watch him grow into the wonderful young man he was on the path to becoming”.
He said: “Fletcher loved his family, friends, fishing, cooking, and any sports that he was allowed to play.
“While the hole in our hearts and lives will never be filled, I hope that in time, our family can find healing.”
Mr Merkel also praised “the swift and heroic actions of children and adults alike from inside the church”.
“Without these people and their selfless actions, this could have been a tragedy of many magnitudes more. For these people, I am thankful,” he added.
Image: Families and loved ones reunite at the scene after the shooting. Pic: Reuters
Mayor calls for assault weapon ban
It comes after Minneapolis mayor Jacob Frey called for a statewide and federal ban on assault weapons, a day after the deadly school shooting.
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Minneapolis mayor urges assault weapons ban
“Thoughts and prayers are not going to cut it. It’s on all of us to see this through,” the mayor said at a news conference. “We need a statewide and a federal ban on assault weapons.
“We need a statewide and a federal ban on high-capacity magazines. There is no reason that someone should be able to reel off 30 shots before they even have to reload.
“We’re not talking about your father’s hunting rifle gear. We’re talking about guns that are built to pierce armour and kill people.”
“It is very clear that this shooter had the intention to terrorise those innocent children,” he added, before saying the killer “fantasised” about the plans of other mass shooting attackers and wanted to “obtain notoriety”.
Thomas Klemond, interim CEO of Minneapolis’s main trauma hospital Hennepin Healthcare, said at an earlier news conference that the hospital was treating nine patients injured in the shooting.
One child at the hospital was in a critical condition, he added.
Children’s Minnesota Hospital also said that three children remain in its care as of Thursday morning.
Police have released new details about the killer in the US Catholic school shooting – including that they “idolised” mass murderers and they wanted to “watch children suffer”.
Two children, aged eight and 10, were killed during mass at Annunciation Catholic School in Minneapolis on Wednesday.
Eighteen other people were injured, including children aged between six and 15 and three adults in their 80s.
Police said Robin Westman, a male born as Robert Westman, opened fire with a rifle through the windows of the school’s church as children sat in pews.
Image: Robin Westman
Almost 120 rifle rounds fired, police chief says
In a news conference on Thursday, Minneapolis Police Chief Brian O’Hara said the attacker fired 116 rifle rounds into the church.
“It is very clear that this shooter had the intention to terrorise those innocent children,” he added.
The police chief said the killer “fantasised” about the plans of other mass shooting attackers and wanted to “obtain notoriety”.
When asked about the attacker obtaining the firearms used legally, Mr O’Hara said that they did not have a criminal history or any diagnosed mental health disorders.
While they had potentially concerning social media posts, the police chief added that there was no evidence to suggest that Westman was legally barred from purchasing a firearm.
Image: People mourn outside the Annunciation Catholic School in Minneapolis. Pic: Reuters
Suspect ‘wanted to watch children suffer’
Joe Thompson, acting US attorney for Minnesota, also said evidence recovered of the killer’s plans showed “pure indiscriminate hate” and that they “idolised some of the most notorious school shooters and mass murderers in our country’s history”.
“I won’t dignify the shooter’s words by repeating them,” Mr Thompson added. “They are horrific and vile, but in short, the shooter wanted to watch children suffer.”
Earlier, the mayor of Minneapolis called for a statewide and federal ban on assault weapons after the deadly attack, saying “thoughts and prayers are not going to cut it”.
“There is no reason that someone should be able to reel off 30 shots before they even have to reload,” Jacob Frey said.
“We’re not talking about your father’s hunting rifle gear. We’re talking about guns that are built to pierce armour and kill people.”
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6:34
Minneapolis mayor urges assault weapons ban
Thomas Klemond, interim CEO of Minneapolis’s main trauma hospital Hennepin Healthcare, said at a news conference that the hospital was treating nine patients injured in the shooting.
One child at the hospital was in a critical condition, he added.
Children’s Minnesota Hospital also said that three children remain in its care as of Thursday morning.
In a post on Facebook, the hospital said “there are no words to describe the overwhelming pain many are feeling”, adding: “We feel that pain with you.
“To the entire Annunciation community, you have our deepest condolences. During this time of unimaginable grief and loss, we want you to know that we at Children’s Minnesota are with you.
“We will always be here to care for you. And in this moment, we hurt alongside you.”