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The US is trying to hit Iranian targets in the Middle East hard enough to stop attacks against American forces but not so hard that it triggers wider escalation or even direct war with Iran.

Experts in recent days have dubbed the strategy the “Goldilocks” approach because it needs to be just right.

Joe Biden made clear that a response was coming from the moment he accused “radical Iran-backed militant groups operating in Syria and Iraq” of killing three US service personnel in Jordan in a drone attack almost a week ago.

But the president also signalled his retaliation would be calculated rather than rushed, saying it would be “at a time and in a manner of our choosing”.

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This bought the administration time to try to navigate the slimmest of paths between a meaningful, powerful and effective military strike against Iranian interests and igniting new conflict in a region that is already at boiling point following the 7 October Hamas attack on Israel that prompted the Israeli war in Gaza.

Map shows approximate targets of US strikes
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Map shows approximate targets of US strikes

By choosing not to hit Iran itself directly, Mr Biden has very deliberately sought to avoid escalation, even though he could potentially have justified strikes inside Iranian territory given Tehran’s alleged backing of the groups accused of the lethal drone attack in Jordan.

However, he has still chosen to go after Iran’s elite Quds Force, within the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) – the most potent arm of Iranian military power in the region and the organisation that runs Tehran’s network of proxy militias.

This level of attack could yet trigger a direct, escalatory Iranian response against US targets. Washington will be hoping it won’t.

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Almost exactly three years ago, when Donald Trump was president, the US killed the top Iranian general who had led the Quds Force during its most effective period of proxy warfare against US, British and other Western interests in the Middle East.

The assassination of Qasem Soleimani in a drone strike in Iraq in January 2020 triggered an Iranian missile attack against US forces, also in Iraq, in response – a moment of acute peril when the two sides last seemed on the brink of spiralling into all-out war.

That did not happen.

This time around, the Biden administration will likely have tried to work behind the scenes with Iran to reduce the risk of a similar kind of Iranian retaliation in kind.

Washington has also stated that Friday’s strikes were just the beginning, meaning that its adversaries are on notice.

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Biden joins families of US troops killed in drone attack

The president again framed his threat to give a sense that this was the US calling the shots rather than being forced into taking action.

“Our response began today,” he said in a statement released by the White House on Friday. “It will continue at times and places of our choosing.”

He added: “The United States does not seek conflict in the Middle East or anywhere else in the world. But let all those who might seek to do us harm know this: If you harm an American, we will respond.”

For now, perhaps the biggest danger for the United States is that its barrage of strikes against 85 Iranian-linked targets in Iraq and Syria will not be sufficient to deter new attacks that harm or take more American lives.

If that happens again, the president may be left with no choice but to order strikes against Iran directly.

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New US plan for Gaza starting to emerge despite sanitised tour for Trump peace envoy

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New US plan for Gaza starting to emerge despite sanitised tour for Trump peace envoy

We’ve seen this many times before.

Highly anticipated talks and meetings with America, Israel’s closest ally and the one country with the power to pressure Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to change course, then nothing changes.

We need to give Steve Witkoff time to report his assessments back to the White House before we can give a complete verdict on this visit but what we’ve seen and heard so far has offered little hope.

The pressure on Donald Trump to stop the humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza is mounting after a small but vocal contingent of his base expressed outrage.

Even one of his biggest supporters in Congress, Marjorie Taylor Green, has referred to it as a genocide.

It was little coincidence Mr Witkoff was dispatched to the region for the first time in three months to speak to people on both sides and “learn the truth” to quote US ambassador to Israel, Mike Huckabee, who accompanied him to an aid site in Gaza.

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Gaza nurse: ‘We’re rationing care’

The pair spent five hours in Gaza speaking to people at a Gaza Humanitarian Foundation centre and it’s understood saw nothing of the large crowd of Palestinians gathering a mile away waiting for food.

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Their sanitised tour of Gaza did not include a visit to a hospital where medics are receiving casualties by the dozen from deadly incidents at aid sites, and where they’re treating children for malnutrition and hunger.

A critical trauma nurse at Nasser hospital told us a 13-year-old boy was among the people shot while Mr Witkoff was in the enclave.

An American paediatrician at the same hospital who had publicly extended an invitation to meet with Mr Witkoff heard nothing from the US delegation.

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‘Come here, right now’: Gaza doctor’s message to US envoy

Dr Tom Adamkiewicz described people “being shot like rabbits” and “a new level of barbarity that I don’t think the world has seen”.

The US delegation was defensive of the controversial GHF aid distribution that was launched by America and Israel in May, hailing its delivery of a million meals a day.

But if their new system of feeding Gaza is truly working, why are we seeing images of starved children and hearing deaths every day of people in search of food?

The backdrop of this trip is very different to the last time Mr Witkoff was here.

In May, life was a struggle for Palestinians in Gaza, people were dying in Israeli bombings but, for the most part, people weren’t dying due to a lack of food or getting killed trying to reach aid.

Mr Netanyahu’s easing of humanitarian conditions a week ago, allowing foreign aid to drop from the sky, was an indirect admission of failure by the GHF.

Yet, for now, the US is standing by this highly criticised way of delivering aid.

A UN source tells me more aid is getting through than it was a week ago – around 30 lorries are due to enter today compared to around five that were getting in each day before.

Still nowhere near enough and it’s a complex process of clearances and coordination with the IDF through areas of conflict.

Lorries are regularly refused entry without explanation.

Then there was Mr Witkoff’s meeting with hostage families a day later where we began to get a sense of America’s new plan for Gaza.

The US issued no public statement but family members shared conversations they’d had with Mr Trump’s envoy: bring all the hostages home in one deal, disarm Hamas and end the war. Easier to propose than to put into practice.

Within hours of those comments being reported in the Israeli media, Hamas released a video of hostage Evyatar David looking emaciated in an underground tunnel in Gaza.

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Video released of Israeli hostage

Now 24 years old, he was kidnapped from the Nova festival on 7 October and is one of 20 hostages understood to be still alive. The release of the video was timed for maximum impact.

Hamas also poured water on any hopes of a deal in a statement, refusing to disarm unless an independent Palestinian state is established.

Hamas has perhaps become more emboldened in this demand after key Israeli allies, including the UK, announced plans for formal recognition in the last week.

It’s hard to see a way forward. The current Israeli government has, in effect, abandoned the idea of a two-state solution.

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The Trump administration’s recent boycott of international conferences on the matter suggests America is taking a similar line, breaking with its long-standing position.

Arab nations could now be key in what happens next.

In an unprecedented move, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Egypt joined a resolution calling for Hamas to disarm and surrender control of Gaza following a UN conference earlier this week.

This is hugely significant – highly influential powers in its own backyard have not applied this sort of pressure before.

For all the US delegation’s good intentions, it’s still political deadlock. Israeli hostages and Palestinians in Gaza left to starve and suffer the consequences.

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Sydney Harbour Bridge pro-Palestine protest so busy it was ‘perilous’, police chief says

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Sydney Harbour Bridge pro-Palestine protest so busy it was 'perilous', police chief says

Tens of thousands of Sydney residents marched across the city’s iconic Harbour Bridge to support Palestinians in Gaza and call for an end to the war. 

The decision to centre the protest on such an iconic landmark was controversial. The bridge is considered a symbol of unity in the city.

However, the Israel-Hamas war has been deeply divisive in Australia and increased tension between the country’s Jewish and Muslim communities.

Protesters walk across the Sydney Harbour Bridge. Pic: AAP/Dean Lewins/Reuters
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Protesters walk across the Sydney Harbour Bridge. Pic: AAP/Dean Lewins/Reuters

On Sunday there were pro-Palestinian demonstrations in Melbourne, Adelaide and Sydney.

In Sydney organisers hoped 50,000 people would attend, despite heavy rain.

In the end, the bridge and the central business district were so packed – and the weather so bad – that police and organisers called the march off mid-way, fearing there would be a crush in the crowd.

Protest in Sydney. Pic: @emafranklin via Storyful
Image:
Protest in Sydney. Pic: @emafranklin via Storyful


Police said the crowd numbers in the Sydney Harbour Bridge march were “far greater” than expected, creating the risk of a crowd crush.

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“It was perilous,” said senior officer Peter McKenna, adding his force was “very lucky the crowd was well-behaved”.

The final figures for the number of people who attended haven’t been released. But it was an impressive turnout in the tens of thousands.

Some of those attending the march, called by its organisers the March for Humanity, carried pots and pans as symbols of the hunger in the besieged enclave of Gaza.

WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange joins protesters gathering to walk across the Sydney Harbour Bridge. Pic: AAP/Dean Lewins/Reuters
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Julian Assange joined protesters. Pic: AAP/Dean Lewins/Reuters

There was also a surprise guest, Wikileaks founder Julian Assange.

He has largely kept a low profile since his release from a British prison last year. He didn’t speak to the crowd, but he was among those leading the march.

However, the demonstration almost didn’t happen after New South Wales police tried to stop it from taking place on the Harbour Bridge.

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On Saturday, the country’s Supreme Court ruled it could go ahead.

Despite the rain, there were families with children and seniors as well. It was a true cross-section of Australian society.

One of the protesters, Sarah, drove up from the Blue Mountains outside Sydney to attend.

She said, “enough is enough” and the Australian government should take “stronger action”.

Pro-Palestine protesters on Sydney Harbour Bridge
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Pro-Palestine protesters on Sydney Harbour Bridge

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Sarah also said Australians want people to know they care about what’s happening in the world.

Australia has not joined France, the UK and Canada is announcing plans to recognise a Palestinian state in September.

The government here says recognition is a matter of “when not if”. But it has not committed to any timeline.

Public pressure is growing on Prime Minister Anthony Albanese to take a stronger stand against the war. So far, he has largely resisted that pressure.

But the government’s language towards Israel is becoming more critical.

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Just 36 aid trucks entered Gaza yesterday, Palestinian officials claim – short of 600 needed

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Just 36 aid trucks entered Gaza yesterday, Palestinian officials claim - short of 600 needed

Just 36 aid trucks entered Gaza on Saturday – despite the humanitarian situation in the enclave worsening, Palestinian officials have warned.

According to the Gazan government’s media office, most of the humanitarian supplies were looted and stolen – “as a result of the state of security chaos that the Israeli occupation systematically and deliberately perpetuates”.

Officials say at least 600 truckloads of aid are required on a daily basis, adding: “The needs of the population are worsening.”

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Gaza nurse: ‘We’re rationing care’

A statement released late last night called for “the immediate opening of crossings, and the entry of aid and infant formula in sufficient quantities” – and “condemned in the strongest terms the continuation of the crime of starvation”.

Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, refuted this – and accused Hamas of “stirring up a slanderous propaganda campaign against Israel”.

He said: “The cruelty of Hamas has no boundaries. While the State of Israel is allowing the entry of humanitarian aid to the residents of Gaza, the terrorists of Hamas are deliberately starving our hostages and document them in a cynical and evil manner.

“The terrorists of Hamas are deliberately starving the residents of the Strip as well, preventing them from receiving the aid.”

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Aid drops continue over Gaza

It comes as the Palestinian Red Crescent in Gaza said its headquarters in Khan Younis were hit by an Israeli strike, killing one staff member and injuring three others.

Footage posted on social media shows a fire broke out in the building.

Indirect negotiations between Hamas and Israel for a 60-day ceasefire, and a deal for the release of half the hostages still held in Gaza, ended in deadlock last week.

US President Donald Trump’s Middle East envoy told the families of the hostages yesterday that he was working with the Israeli government on a plan that would end the war.

Steve Witkoff, front centre, arrives to meet families of hostages in Tel Aviv, Israel. Pic: AP/Ariel Schalit
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Steve Witkoff arrives to meet families of hostages in Tel Aviv. Pic: AP

Steve Witkoff claimed that Hamas was willing to disarm to stop the conflict, despite the group’s repeated statements that it would not do so.

In response, Hamas said it would not disarm unless an independent Palestinian state is established with Jerusalem as its capital.

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After Mr Witkoff’s meeting with the families of the hostages, Hamas released two videos of an emaciated Israeli hostage, Evyatar David, who was abducted from the Nova music festival on 7 October 2023 and has been held in captivity in Gaza since.

The 24-year-old looked skeletal, with his shoulder blades protruding from his back. He was heard saying that he had not eaten for three days. The distressing videos show him digging his own grave, he said in the footage.

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