Global military spending jumps 9% to £1.7trn
Global defence spending on everything from ammunition to nuclear weapons has jumped 9% to a record $2.2trn (£1.7trn) from a year earlier and will rise again in 2024 as the world enters “a more dangerous period”, new analysis has found.
Russia – locked in a war with Ukraine – allocates more than 30% of annual government expenditure to its armed forces, according to the assessment on the balance of global military power by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) published on Tuesday.
It said the Russian armed forces have lost more than 3,000 main battle tanks in Ukraine – roughly as many as they had ready to deploy before the full-scale invasion two years ago. Moscow is now drawing on stored kit to replenish losses, “trading quality for quantity”.
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The rise in spending has also been driven by China as well as the NATO alliance.
Even excluding the United States, which has the world’s most powerful military, NATO allies have regrown their combined defence spending by almost a third in the past decade, a move that was prompted by Vladimir Putin’s initial invasion of Crimea in 2014, the analysis said.
But it warned that “glaring gaps” in capability remained following decades of defence cuts. Donald Trump caused an uproar over the weekend when he criticised a majority of European NATO allies and Canada over their failure to meet a minimum goal to spend at least 2% of GDP on defence, saying he would urge attacks on member states that did not invest sufficiently in their armed forces.
The IISS thinktank said that the US and Europe are once again ramping up production of missiles and ammunition, with a renewed focus on artillery and air defence systems – areas that had been neglected since the end of the Cold War, with stockpiles and industrial capacity hollowed out.
Nations, including China and Russia, are also focusing on new technology like hypersonic missiles – travelling more than five times faster than the speed of sound and very difficult to intercept – as well as unmanned weapons such as uncrewed attack boats, used very effectively by Ukraine against Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, IISS said.
“Nuclear weapons are also very much back on the agenda, with China adding missile silos and the United States modernising warheads and delivery systems,” the thinktank said in a statement released ahead of the publication of the annual Military Balance.
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It is the 65th year of the report, which tracks the state of each military in the world.
The thinktank said the world “has entered a more dangerous period in the last 12 months”.
This was against a backdrop of the ongoing war in Ukraine, conflict between Israel and Hamas in the Middle East and growing tensions between the West and China.
The thinktank said the Chinese Communist Party was demonstrating a growing capacity to be able to project power – a move that is driving increased cooperation between the West and other militaries in Asia to offset the threat.
It also highlighted Iran‘s expanding influence such as the supply of Iranian anti-ship missiles to Houthi rebels in Yemen that are attacking shipping in the Red Sea as well as the sale of Iranian suicide drones to Russia, which are being used to devastating effect in Ukraine.
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“Global defence spending is up 9% from the previous year and poised to rise further in 2024, based on already announced spending commitments,” the IISS said.
Bastian Giegerich, director-general and chief executive of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said: “The IISS Military Balance is published at an important time when the rules-based order is being increasingly questioned.
“While Western defence spending is rising and plans to revamp equipment are ongoing, we reflect on the challenges including those set by Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine, China’s military modernisation and events in the Middle East.”
Benjamin Netanyahu’s plan for Israel to take full military control of the Gaza Strip has been condemned, amid fears a reoccupation could put the lives of Palestinians and the remaining Israeli hostages at risk.
Asked in a Fox News interview on Thursday if Israel would “take control of all of Gaza”, the prime minister replied: “We intend to, in order to assure our security, remove Hamas there, enable the population to be free of Gaza.”
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“We don’t want to keep it. We want to have a security perimeter,” he continued. “We want to hand it over to Arab forces that will govern it properly without threatening us and giving Gazans a good life.”
Israel already controls around 75% of Gaza and has largely sealed its borders.
To take full control, it would need to launch ground operations in the remaining areas that have not been destroyed, where most of Gaza’s two million population have sought refuge.
Israel’s security cabinet, which would need to approve the military operations, began a meeting on Thursday evening, but for now no official announcement has been made.
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Netanyahu on Israel’s plans for Gaza
Plan will ‘put hostages and soldiers in danger’
The plan has been criticised by many, including families of hostages being held by Hamas and a top Israeli Defence Force (IDF) official.
Einav Zangauker, the mother of hostage Matan Zangauker, said Mr Netanyahu promised her that he would pursue a deal to free the hostages.
She said in a post on X: “Someone who talks about a comprehensive deal doesn’t go and conquer the Strip and put hostages and soldiers in danger.
“Netanyahu and his partners are about to condemn [Matan] to death.”
Israel’s military chief of staff, Eyal Zamir, has warned against occupying Gaza, saying it would endanger the hostages and put further strain on the IDF, according to Israeli media reports.
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In an illustration of the kind of opposition Israel could face internationally if it purses the plan, a Jordanian official aid Arabs would “only support what Palestinians agree and decide on”.
“Security in Gaza must be done through legitimate Palestinian institutions,” the source said.
“Arabs will not be agreeing to Netanyahu’s policies nor clean his mess.”
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At least 42 more Palestinians killed by Israeli fire, say hospitals
It comes after at least 42 Palestinians were killed in Israeli airstrikes and shootings across southern Gaza on Thursday, according to local hospitals.
At least 13 of those people were seeking aid in an Israeli military zone where UN aid convoys are regularly overwhelmed by desperate crowds and looters.
An Israeli soldier, standing next to an Israeli flag, looks out across Gaza. Pic: Reuters
Another two were killed on roads leading to sites run by the Israel- and US-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF), according to Nasser Hospital, which received the bodies.
The GHF said there were no violent incidents at or near its sites on Thursday.
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The war in Gaza began when Hamas killed about 1,200 people – mostly civilians – in its attack on 7 October 2023 and abducted 251 others. They still hold approximately 50 of those hostages – with 20 believed to be alive – after most of the others were released in ceasefires or other deals.
Israel’s retaliatory offensive has killed more than 61,000 Palestinians, according to Gaza’s Hamas-run health ministry, which does not differentiate between militants and civilians in its count.
Vladimir Putin has played down the possibility of a meeting with Volodymyr Zelenskyy, saying that while it is possible, certain conditions must be met.
The Russian president was responding to an American proposal of a trilateral meeting between him, the Ukrainian president and Donald Trump.
The idea was floated by Steve Witkoff, the US president’s envoy during talks with Mr Putin on Wednesday, Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov said.
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Mr Ushakov said the three-way option was “simply mentioned by the American representative during the meeting in the Kremlin”.
He added, however: “This option was not specifically discussed.”
On the prospect of meeting Mr Zelenskyy, Vladimir Putin said: “I have already said many times that I have nothing against it in general – it is possible.”
However, he distanced himself from any such meeting happening soon, adding: “But certain conditions must be created for this. Unfortunately, we are still far from creating such conditions.”
Pic: AP
Mr Zelenskyy offered to speak to Vladimir Putin in May, challenging him to meet in Istanbul for talks on ending the war in Ukraine – an invitation the Russian leader declined.
While a trilateral meeting appears to be off the agenda, Mr Ushakov said an agreement had been reached for Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin to meet “in the coming days”.
After the US president touted a “very good prospect” of the leaders meeting for Ukraine ceasefire talks, Mr Ushakov said on Thursday that Russian and American officials had started working on the details.
“At the suggestion of the American side, an agreement was essentially reached to hold a bilateral meeting at the highest level in the coming days,” he said.
“We are now beginning concrete preparations together with our American colleagues.”
Regarding a trilateral meeting, Mr Ushakov said: “We propose, first of all, to focus on preparing a bilateral meeting with Trump, and we consider it most important that this meeting be successful and productive.”
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Will Putin agree to Trump’s condition to meet Zelenskyy?
It would be the first time the two leaders have met since Mr Trump returned to office, and follows a three-hour meeting between Mr Putin and Steve Witkoff in Moscow on Wednesday.
Following the meeting, Volodymyr Zelenskyy said it appeared that Russia was “more inclined to a ceasefire”.
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The Ukrainian president said he planned to speak on Thursday to German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, as well as contacts from France and Italy.
He said he planned to discuss a ceasefire, a leaders’ summit and long-term security, adding: “Ukraine has never wanted war and will work toward peace as productively as possible.”
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A poll from Gallup suggests 69% of Ukrainians support a negotiated end to the war with Russia – an almost complete reversal from 2022, when 73% favoured fighting until victory.
Most said they were sceptical the war would end soon, with 68% saying they believed it was unlikely that active fighting would stop within the next 12 months.
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At 10am, Donald Trump accused Russia of posing a threat to America’s national security.
By 5pm, Mr Trump said there was a “good prospect” of him meeting Vladimir Putin “soon”.
There had, he claimed, been “great progress” in talks between his special envoy Steve Witkoff and the Russian president.
It’s difficult to gauge the chances of a meeting between the two leaders without knowing what “great progress” means.
Is Russia “inclined” towards agreeing a ceasefire, as Ukraine’s president now claims?
Is Mr Putin prepared to meet with his Ukrainian foe, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, too?
The very fact that we’re asking those questions suggests something shifted on a day when there was no expectation of a breakthrough.
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